Risk assessment Books

Book SynopsisSafety Management Systems and their Origins: Insights from the Aviation Industry presents different perspectives on SMS to better decode what it means as a safety approach and what it implicitly conveys beyond safety.The book uses the aviation industry as a basis for analyzing where the SMS stands in terms of safety enhancement. Through a socio-historical analysis of how SMSs emerged and spread across high-risk industries and countries, the book also explains the other stakes underpinning this new approach to safety management.Features: Explores SMS as it is implemented in aviation based on examples from several countries and regions, namely the UK, USA, and Australia. Presents a socio-historical analysis of how SMSs emerged in high-risk industries. Provides insights to explain the existing limitations of SMS. Proposes new avenues to reach beyond the limitations of SMS. Discusses the COVID-19Table of Contents1. Introduction. 2. A Composite Methodology. 3. Safety Actors’ Version: The SMS as the New Safety Frontier. 4. What Does the SMS Actually Do and Is It Up to Its Safety Promises?. 5. Why Did the SMS Emerge and Spread?. 6. Beyond the SMS: Towards More Contextualized Perspectives on Safety. 7. Conclusion. Epilogue. The Covid-19 Pandemic: An Amplifier Case Study. Appendix. Description of the Main Aviation Stakeholders.

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Book SynopsisThis textbook analyses the origins and effects of insider risk, using multiple real-life case histories to illustrate the principles, and explains how to protect organisations against the risk.Some of the most problematic risks confronting businesses and organisations of all types stem from the actions of insiders individuals who betray trust by behaving in potentially harmful ways. Insiders cause material damage to their employers and society, and psychological harm to the colleagues and friends they betray. Even so, many organisations do not have a systematic understanding of the nature and origins of insider risk, and relatively few have a coherent and effective system of protective security measures to defend themselves against that risk. This book describes the environmental and psychological factors that predispose some individuals to become harmful insiders, and the most common pathways by which this happens. It considers how aspects of insider risk have been altTrade Review'Insider risk has become a big issue, particularly as we depend so much on digital networks. Paul Martin's clear, comprehensive and thoughtful book leads us through the subject with telling, real-world examples.'Jonathan Evans, former Director General of MI5'Few people understand the world of Insider Risk as well as Paul Martin. This deceptively simple book is rooted in serious professional expertise and his own academic study of behaviour and risk. It clearly explains the problem, and suggests effective approaches. There are home truths about lack of investment in personnel security at the expense of other types of risk, and, because this is about human behaviour, it encourages better understanding of what motivates people to become insiders. Each chapter ends with discussion points which enable deeper reflection and would be useful for any organisation to consider.'Suzanne Raine, Visiting Professor, King’s College London, UK'The book cleverly uses case studies as a way of reinforcing important points. The content is fully up to date and incorporates the most recent developments in this field. It challenges perception on insider motivations and the impact of different factors, and I found that some of its content has challenged my own thoughts on the matter. There are interesting insights into the psychology and personality traits behind insiders, and the author importantly provides potential solutions to the problem, as well as highlighting what the problem is itself. Trust and its relationship to Insider Risk makes interesting reading within the book. In Part 2, the author looks at potential solutions or mitigation responses to insider risk and the importance of adopting a systems approach. He also locates personnel security within a wider integrated approach to security, incorporating physical and cyber security. I particularly like the proactive approach he adopts when discussing how to address insider risk - 'Prevention is better than cure', rather than waiting for some form of insider activity to occur before responding to it. Importantly for Insider Risk practitioners, there is also a detailed chapter regarding detection and mitigation methods which can be applied, and models and metrics which can be used to assess insider risk. I found the book highly informative and extremely well researched. I would describe the author as a 'Simplifier', not a 'Complicator', as he has written the book in an easy to read and uncomplicated style, that makes it equally relevant for someone just coming into the field of Personnel Security and Insider Risk, as much as for the expert who has spent years working in this field of work.'David BaMaung, Chair Special Interest Group Insider Risk, The Security Institute'Insider Risk and Personnel Security by Paul Martin is excellent. It provides rigor and insights about the complexities involved in human nature, and will be useful as an antidote to war-story telling individuals who suggest that risk-related behavior and motivations fit neatly into well-bounded management tactics.'Eric L. Lang, psychological, scientist and insider threat expert'Paul Martin dives deep into ‘insider risk’, an often neglected area of security risk management, despite its prevalence as a critical key factor in many a case of espionage, cyber attack, fraud or thefts. At a time of rapid and unsettling changing, with war in Europe, ramping-up of geopolitical tensions, ever more sophisticated criminal acts and daily news of cyber attacks, I am sure we’ll keep seeing creative attempts to exploit human vulnerabilities at the heart of our organisations, systems and networks. [He/the author/Paul] neatly takes us on an ‘insiders’ journey, explaining who those people are (not just employees!), their behavioural traits and work/life contexts, what makes them tick, concepts of trust and betrayal, effective security responses, and everything you might trip over on the way. If ever there was a book that illustrates that security is a truly human challenge that needs more than technical solutions, this is it. The author brings a unique mix of academic rigour and practitioner realism to his writing, which is direct, clear and illustrated with frequent case studies. This book is an excellent source of insight and an easy, enjoyable read for leaders, practitioners, students and researchers alike. As a non-executive director on several boards, I recommend it to executive and non-executive Board colleagues. We need '‘insider risk'’ up there with cyber-risks in that reddest corner of the risk matrix!'Fiona Strens, Professor of Practice, Security & Resilience, University of Strathclyde, UKTable of ContentsIntroduction PART ONE – UNDERSTANDING INSIDER RISK 1. What is insider risk? 2. Why does it matter? 3. Who are the insiders? 4. Why do they do it? 5. Trust, deception, and betrayal PART TWO – PERSONNEL SECURITY 6. Personnel security principles 7. Pre-trust measures 8. In-trust measures 9. Foundations 10. Models and metrics 11. Barriers to success

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Book SynopsisRisk is the single most prevalent and enduring factor that influences every individual, organization, and society. People often seek protection from negative risk events, but also seek to take advantage of opportunities arising from positive risk events. We may feel overwhelmed by messages encountered in daily interactions with media and society, contributing to a sense of ambiguity over how to act in response to risk-related information and misinformation. We seek to leverage evidence and reason to find our own balance between both positive and negative outcomes in an uncertain world. This groundbreaking book delivers practical concepts and tools that empower readers to leverage innovations in risk science to improve their abilities to interpret, assess, communicate, and handle risk. It provides a practical non-quantitative approach to understanding the risk and making better decisions involving risk. Think RISK covers several key themes in risk science: a) the main goals anTable of ContentsPreface , Rule 1: Risk is the single most constant and enduring factor in our lives and professions , 1 The heart of risk science makes sense , 2 We can agree to disagree on risk and uncertainty , 3 Risk is about knowledge, Rule 2: We do have some control, but not full control. When we accept this, we can actively manage that risk., 4 You have some control., 5 Risk is not objective., 6 We are all biased., 7 The message matters, 8 Risk is not just about dollars., Rule 3: Risk can be a good thing., 9 To manage risk is to balance the positive and the negative., 10 Risk management is worth the time and energy., 11 To manage risk is for our own benefit., 12 Piecing it all together: Examples of the risk science process, 13 Conclusions

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Book SynopsisStarting from the purchase of heavy equipment and following through to the end of its economic life, this manual explains how to efficiently maintain and operate different types of heavy equipment. Assigning heavy equipment to different projects and utilizing them in varied systems is a large part of construction operation; ensuring everything is monitored consistently and maintained accordingly is essential. This book aids engineers in facilitating straightforward, consistent reporting systems and cost-efficient equipment use. This is particularly of note to the construction industry.Features: Enables engineers to save time and money on maintenance costs and maximize the availability of the heavy equipment Provides comprehensive coverage of methods and procedures for heavy equipment management Provides charts for practical use by engineers in the field, e.g., mapping out a maintenance schedule Includes chapters on maintenance and field operations Table of ContentsPART I Equipment OrganizationChapter 1 Equipment Management Organization and Administration Chapter 2 Equipment Tables of Organization Chapter 3 Equipment Management Personnel and Manpower PART II Equipment Administration ProceduresChapter 4 Ownership Documentation Chapter 5 Monitoring and Control Chapter 6 Equipment Standard Operating Procedure PART III Equipment MaintenanceChapter 7 Equipment Maintenance System Chapter 8 Maintenance Job Order System Chapter 9 Company-Provided Maintenance Tools and Equipment PART IV Project OperationsChapter 10 Equipment Project Schedule Chapter 11 Project Operating Forms and Instructions Chapter 12 Project Maintenance Standard Procedure Chapter 13 Project Tower Crane Inspection PART V Process PlantsChapter 14 Three Types of Construction Process Plants Chapter 15 Process Plants Maintenance PART VI Equipment Safety and SecurityChapter 16 Equipment Safety Chapter 17 Security Organization Chapter 18 Company Equipment Library PART VII Equipment Rental RateChapter 19 Equipment Owning and Operating Cost

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Book SynopsisNearly all our safety data collection and reporting systems are backwardlooking: incident reports; dashboards; compliance monitoring systems; and so on. This book shows how we can use safety data in a forward-looking, predictive sense.Predictive Safety Analytics: Reducing Risk through Modeling and Machine Learning contains real use cases where organizations have reduced incidents by employing predictive analytics to foresee and mitigate future risks. It discusses how Predictive Safety Analytics is an opportunity to break through the plateau problem where safety rate improvements have stagnated in many organizations. The book presents how the use of data, coupled with advanced analytical techniques, including machine learning, has become a proven and successful innovation. Emphasis is placed on how the book can meet you where you are by illuminating a path to get there, starting with simple data the organization likely already has. Highlights of the book are the real Table of Contents1. Safety in Numbers: A Data-Driven Approach. 2. Analytics Defined. 3. The Safety Data Repository. 4. Use Cases. 5. Where to Go from Here.

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Book SynopsisCompletely updated, this new edition uniquely explains how to assess and handle technical risk, schedule risk, and cost risk efficiently and effectively for complex systems that include Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning. It enables engineering professionals to anticipate failures and highlight opportunities to turn failure into success through the systematic application of Risk Engineering. What Every Engineer Should Know About Risk Engineering and Management, Second Edition discusses Risk Engineering and how to deal with System Complexity and Engineering Dynamics, as it highlights how AI can present new and unique ways that failures can take place. The new edition extends the term Risk Engineering introduced by the first edition, to Complex Systems in the new edition. The book also relates Decision Tree which was explored in the first edition to Fault Diagnosis in the new edition and introduces new chapters on System Complexity, AI, and Causal RiskTable of Contents1. Risk Engineering - Dealing with System Complexity and Engineering Dynamics. 2. Risk Identification - Understanding the Limits of Engineering Designs. 3. Risk Assessment - Extending Murphy’s Law. 4. Design for Risk Engineering - The Art of War Against Failures. 5. Risk Acceptability - Uncertainty in Perspective. 6. From Risk Engineering to Risk Management. 7. Cost Risk - Interacting with Engineering Economy. 8. Schedule Risk - Identifying and Controlling Critical Paths. 9. Integrated Risk Management and Computer Simulation.

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Book SynopsisThis book presents a comprehensive view of the different theories of risk management in water, drawing on recent studies that serve to inform the way that practitioners consider their own risk practice.While it is commonplace to see risk described in technical and engineering terms when discussing water, this book argues that this is a flawed practice that results in poor decision-making, particularly where water intersects with social elements and the community. Challenging these traditionally held notions of risk, this book introduces the psychological and sociological underpinnings to water risk decisions. Using these, it argues for a broader view of risk-based thinking and proposes a number of evidence-based actions for policymakers to directly implement. Drawing on primary research conducted with water professionals across a variety of roles, this book highlights how the effect of psychological inputs, such as dread and reputation, can create barriers to implementing nov

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Risk science is becoming increasingly important as businesses, policymakers and public sector leaders are tasked with decision-making and investment using varying levels of knowledge and information. Risk Science: An Introduction explores the theory and practice of risk science, providing concepts and tools for understanding and acting under conditions of uncertainty.The chapters in this book cover the fundamental concepts, principles, approaches, methods and models for how to understand, assess, communicate, manage and govern risk. These topics are presented and examined in a way which details how they relate, for example, how to characterize and communicate risk with particular emphasis on reflecting uncertainties; how to distinguish risk perception and professional risk judgments; how to assess risk and guide decision-makers, especially for cases involving large uncertainties and value differences; and how to integrate risk assessment with resilience-based strateg

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Book SynopsisJacqueline Peel examines the role of science in international risk regulation in areas from climate change to food safety. It will appeal to international legal practitioners wanting to understand law's part in managing global risks and risk-assessment professionals interested in improving the use of science in international legal processes.Trade Review'… [proposes] developments of the law in ways which have a clear practical import.' Christopher A. Thomas, International and Comparative Law QuarterlyTable of Contents1. Introduction - science and risk regulation in international law; 2. Global risk governance and its legitimacy; 3. Scientific rationality and risk in international law; 4. Competing risk regulatory paradigms: sound science and the precautionary principle; 5. Science and WTO regulation of SPS risk; 6. Case studies of science and risk regulation in international law; 7. Democratising global risk governance; 8. What role for science in international risk regulation?

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Book SynopsisIn this book, the authors treat macroeconomic models as composed of large numbers of micro-units or agents of several types and explicitly discuss stochastic dynamic and combinatorial aspects of interactions among them. In mainstream macroeconomics sound microfoundations for macroeconomics have meant incorporating sophisticated intertemporal optimization by representative agents into models. Optimal growth theory, once meant to be normative, is now taught as a descriptive theory in mainstream macroeconomic courses. In neoclassical equilibria flexible prices led the economy to the state of full employment and marginal productivities are all equated. Professors Aoki and Yoshikawa contrariwise show that such equilibria are not possible in economies with a large number of agents of heterogeneous types. They employ a set of statistical dynamical tools via continuous-time Markov chains and statistical distributions of fractions of agents by types available in the new literature of combinatorTrade ReviewReviews of the hardback: 'Thoughtful macroeconomists are uncomfortably aware that consumers, firms, and workers vary widely in their local environments, perceptions, and beliefs. Ignoring this heterogeneity, as 'modern macro' does, is a likely source of systematic error. Aoki and Yoshikawa propose to repair this failure by modeling the macroeconomy explicitly as a cloud of interacting particles. The goal is to deduce the distributions of economic characteristics that describe the system as a whole. There are already some surprising beginning results, including a novel treatment of aggregate demand, and one can expect more when their approach is combined with standard economic reasoning. This is the start, not the finish, of a potentially far-reaching research program. It should excite the curiosity of all those thoughtful macroeconomists.' Robert M. Solow, Massachusetts Institute of Technology'This book is a bold and daring challenge to the growing influence of neoclassical equilibrium theory in the field of modern macroeconomics. Not simply an approach to traditional Keynesian theory that attempts to refine it and make it more accurate, the treatment makes use of a new methodology in statistical physics and combinatorial stochastic processes to mount a direct challenge to real business cycle theory and rational expectations theory. Professor Aoki has made important contributions to the application of statistical physics to economics, and Professor Yoshikawa is a leading Japanese economist who has done outstanding work in the fields of both theoretical and empirical economics. This book is the superb product of the optimum combination of these two scholars' different talents.' Ryuzo Sato, New York University and University of Tokyo'Masanao Aoki and Hiroshi Yoshikawa have written no less than the foundation of a new approach (and I believe the right one) to the core problem of macroeconomics, which is to aggregate behaviors by stressing the importance of the heterogeneity and variability of real economic agents. Getting inspiration from and adapting the concepts and tools of statistical physics, they masterfully derive important and novel insights on the most crucial problems of the field: the principle of effective demand, role of uncertainty, sticky prices/wages, and the endogenous business cycle. This book is perhaps the first successful effort to develop macroeconomics as a real science on par with physics, with falsifiable hypotheses underpinned by sound micro-principles and testable predictions.' Didier Sornette, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich'This book shows the impossibility of efficient equilibria in economics with market clearing mainstream hypotheses when such an economy is populated by a large number of heterogenous agents. In such a case, Aoki and Yoshikawa show that, through combined stochastic processes, a new approach to macroeconomics is not only possible: it is real and this book shows how to reach it.' Mauro Gallegati, Università Politechnia delle Marche'Reconstructing Macroeconomics is an ambitious, informative, challenging … book that addresses fundamental questions of economic theory on many levels. In my view mainstream macroeconomists can only benefit by becoming familiar with the point of view Aoki and Yoshikawa represent so ably here … Those who aspire to create a new macroeconomics, including the various schools of 'heterodox' economics, can also learn a lot from this book.' Journal of Economic Behavior and OrganizationTable of ContentsPreface 1 Masanao Aoki; Preface 2 Hiroshi Yoshikawa; 1. Introduction - a new approach to macroeconomics; 2. The methods - jump Markov processes and random partitions; 3. Equilibrium as distribution - the role of demand in macroeconomics; 4. Uncertainty trap - policy ineffectiveness and long stagnation of the macroeconomy; 5. Slow dynamics of the macro system - no mystery of inflexible prices; 6. Business cycles - an endogenous stochastic approach; 7. Labor market dynamics - a new look at natural unemployment and Okun's law; 8. Demand saturation - creation and economic growth; 9. The types of investors and volatility in financial markets - analyzing clusters of heterogeneous agents; 10. Stock prices and the real macroeconomy - power-law versus exponential distributions.

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Book SynopsisSeismic hazard and risk analyses underpin the loadings prescribed by engineering design codes, the decisions by asset owners to retrofit structures, the pricing of insurance policies, and many other activities. This is a comprehensive overview of the principles and procedures behind seismic hazard and risk analysis. It enables readers to understand best practises and future research directions. Early chapters cover the essential elements and concepts of seismic hazard and risk analysis, while later chapters shift focus to more advanced topics. Each chapter includes worked examples and problem sets for which full solutions are provided online. Appendices provide relevant background in probability and statistics. Computer codes are also available online to help replicate specific calculations and demonstrate the implementation of various methods. This is a valuable reference for upper level students and practitioners in civil engineering, and earth scientists interested in engineering seTrade Review'An enormously valuable contribution, which teachers and students of seismic hazard analysis have been crying out for. Baker, Bradley and Stafford have produced a clear and comprehensive textbook for students, practitioners and end-users that I predict will lead to a significant and lasting improvement in the state-of-practice over the coming years.' Dr Julian J Bommer, Seismic Hazard and Risk Consultant'Seismic hazard and risk analysis has become so complex as to be regarded by many as an opaque, mysterious topic only to be understood by a small group of specialists. With this book, the veil has been lifted. It should be on the shelves of all serious students, practitioners, and researchers in the areas of seismic hazard analysis, earthquake engineering, and risk analysis.' Professor Steve Kramer, University of Washington'The authors' profound knowledge and understanding of the interdisciplinary fields used in seismic hazard and risk analysis, and their own remarkable contributions to it, have yielded a comprehensive foundation for its more uniform, rigorous and advanced practice worldwide.' Dr Paul Somerville, AECOM, Los Angeles'The authors of this valuable new tome are all accomplished professors, and their experience in teaching these subjects is apparent in the structure and organization of the book—each chapter beginning with an opening statement and a list of learning objectives. Each chapter also concludes with some expertly designed exercises, which serve to illustrate the practical application of concepts presented in the chapter and to bring to life the lessons learnt through connection to the stated learning objectives … I sincerely hope that the tremendous contribution that Baker, Bradley, and Stafford have made through writing their outstanding book on Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis will be widely disseminated and studied, because it will be a powerful device to improve the state of practice in these fields.' Julian J. Bommer, Seismological Research Letters'A very timely and important contribution to the earth science and earthquake engineering professions. Given the general applicability of many of the concepts it presents, it should be of great use to readers involved with other natural hazards as well. The book contains a tremendous wealth of information all presented and supported in a rigorous and detailed manner. Writing the first book on a particular topic requires many difficult decisions about scope, content, and organization, and the authors have succeeded admirably in simultaneously providing breadth and depth with respect to both hazards and risk.' Steven L. Kramer, Earthquake Spectra'[an] inherently readable and informative textbook on the subject. Concepts are clearly explained, and advanced mathematics is kept in the background (the appendixes pertain) so readers will not get bogged down while trying to understand the important ideas. Numerous figures and tables support the text, all expertly presented … The authors provide an accompanying website to supplement the material in the book and extend readers' learning experience. There could not be a better purchase for learning about seismic hazards and how to assess them at any price … Highly recommended.' M. S. Field, Choice ConnectTable of Contents1. Introduction; Part I: Hazard Inputs; 2. Seismic Source Characterization; 3. Characterization of Earthquake Rates and Rupture Scenarios; 4. Empirical Ground-Motion Characterization; 5. Physics-Based Ground-Motion Characterization; Part II: Hazard Calculation; 6. PSHA Calculation; 7. PSHA Products; 8. Non-Ergodic Hazard Analysis; Part III: Risk; 9. Seismic Risk; 10. Ground-Motion Selection; 11. Spatially Distributed Systems; 12. Validations; Appendix A Basics of Probability; Appendix B Basics of Statistics for Model Calibration; References; List of Symbols; Notation Conventions; Index.

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Book SynopsisA must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact Tomorrow's stock price, next month's sales, next year's costs these are all numbers we don't know yet. Yet everyday, we base our personal and business plans on these kinds of uncertainties.Table of ContentsForeword xv Preface xvii Acknowledgments xxi Introduction Connecting the Seat of the Intellect to the Seat of the Pants 1You cannot learn to ride a bicycle from a book,and I claim the same is true for coping with uncertainty. Paradoxically, this book attempts to dowhat it claims is impossible. Foundations Part 1 The Big Picture 9 Chapter 1 The Flaw of Averages 11In planning for the future, uncertain outcomes are often replaced with single, so-called average numbers. This leads to a class of systematic errors that I call the Flaw of Averages, which explains among other things why forecasts are always wrong. Chapter 2 The Fall of the Algebraic Curtain and Rise of the Flaw of Averages 22The electronic spreadsheet brought the power of business modeling to tens of millions. In so doing, it also paved the way for an epidemic of the Flaw of Averages. Chapter 3 Mitigating the Flaw of Averages 26New technologies are illuminating uncertainty much as the lightbulb illuminates darkness. Probability Management is a scientific approach to harnessing these developments to cure the Flaw of Averages. Chapter 4 The Wright Brothers Versus the Wrong Brothers 34The success of the Wright Brothers’ airplane was the result of carefully constructed models that they tested in their wind tunnel. Analogous models ca help us manage uncertainty and risk, but as we saw in the financial crash of 2008, models can also be used to obfuscate. Chapter 5 The Most Important Instrument in the Cockpit 40The proper use of models, like the instruments in an airplane, is not obvious. Part 2 Five Basic Mindles for Uncertainty 45 Chapter 6 Mindles are to Minds What Handles are to Hands 49Just as industrial designers develop handles to help us grasp the power of physics with our hands, informational designers develop Mindles (first syllable rhymes with “mind”) to help us grasp the power of information with our minds. Section 2will provide some important Mindles for grasping uncertainty. Chapter 7 Mindle 1: Uncertainty Versus Risk 52These two concepts are often used interchangeably but they shouldn’t be. Uncertainty is an objective feature of the universe, whereas risk is in the eye of the beholder. Chapter 8 Mindle 2: An Uncertain Number Is a Shape 55Even graduates of statistics courses have a hard time visualizing uncertainty. A shape in the form of a simple bar graph, called the histogram, does the trick. Try running a simulation in your head or better yet, on your web browser at FlawOfAverages.com. Chapter 9 Mindle 3: Combinations of Uncertain Numbers 67When uncertain numbers are added or averaged, the chance of extreme events goes down. I cover a case study in the film industry. Chapter 10 I Come to Bury Sigma, Not to Praise it 78Just as the height and weight of a criminal suspect have been superseded by surveillance videos and DNA samples, sigma is pushing obsolescence. Chapter 11 Mindle 4: Terri Dial and the Drunk in the Road 83A banking executive discovers the Strong Form of the Flaw of Averages: Average inputs don’t always result in average outputs. Designing an incentive plan around your average employee is systematically erroneous. Chapter 12 Who Was Jensen and Why Wasn’t He Equal? 91The Nuts and Bolts of the Strong Form of the Flaw of AveragesThis chapter shows how to identify the Flaw of Averages before it occurs by understanding your options and restrictions. Chapter 13 Mindle 5: Interrelated Uncertainties 98Interrelated uncertainties are at the heart of modern portfolio theory. They are best understood in terms of scatter plots. Part 3 Decisions and Information 109 Chapter 14 Decision Trees 111Decision trees are a powerful Mindle for thinking through decisions in the face of uncertainty. Chapter 15 The Value of Information Because There Isn’t Anything Else 118The flip side of decision trees. Information is the complement of uncertainty. What is it worth to find things out? Part 4 The Seven Deadly Sins of Averaging 127 Chapter 16 The Seven Deadly Sins of Averaging 129So here are the Seven Deadly Sins, all eleven of them. And the twelfth deadly sin is believing we won’t discover even more tomorrow. Chapter 17 The Flaw of Extremes 133Viewing uncertainties solely in terms of nonaverage outcomes also leads to devastatingly wrong answers and policy decisions. Chapter 18 Simpson’s Paradox 139Imagine a weight loss treatment that makes people lose weight on average, unless they are either male or female, in which case it makes them gain weight on average. Chapter 19 The Scholtes Revenue Fallacy 142Suppose you have various product lines with different unit sales. The average unit sales times the average profit per unit might be positive while your average profit might be negative. Chapter 20 Taking Credit for Chance Occurrences 147If you execute a marketing campaign and make a bunch of sales, how do you know the increase wasn’t just by chance? Applications Part 5 The Flaw of Averages in Finance 155 Chapter 21 Your Retirement Portfolio 157If your retirement fund will last you 20 years given average returns, then you are as likely as not to suffer financial ruin before you get there. Chapter 22 The Birth of Portfolio Theory: The Age of Covariance 163Harry Markowitz started a revolution in finance in the early 1950s by explicitly recognizing risk/return trade-offs. Chapter 23 When Harry Met Bill(y) 169Bill Sharpe extended the work of Markowitz and brought it into widespread practice. Chapter 24 Mindles for the Financial Planning Client 175How the pros explain this stuff to their clients. Chapter 25 Options: Profiting from Uncertainty 181Options allow us to exploit uncertainty through an understanding of the Strong Form of the Flaw of Averages. Chapter 26 When Fischer and Myron Met Bob: Option Theory 192The theory of three economists led to the trillion-dollar derivatives industry. Chapter 27 Prices, Probabilities, and Predictions 200The new phenomenon of prediction markets is changing the way we perceive and report uncertain events, such as political races. Part 6 Real Finance 213 Chapter 28 Holistic Versus Hole-istic 215When people invest in portfolios of oil exploration sites, they often use the hole-istic approach. That is, they rank the places to drill hole by hole, then start at the top and go down the list until they run out of money. This ignores the holistic effects of portfolios. Chapter 29 Real Portfolios at Shell 222For several years, Shell has been using Probability Management to manage its portfolios of petroleum exploration sites in a more holistic manner. Chapter 30 Real Options 228An example of a real option is a gas well in which you have the choice of whether or not to pump depending on the price of gas. Chapter 31 Some Gratuitous Inflammatory Remarks on the Accounting Industry 236You can’t rely on accountants to detect risks because generally accepted accounting principles are built on the Flaw of Averages. Part 7 The Flaw of Averages in Supply Chains 245 Chapter 32 The DNA of Supply Chains 247The inventory problem introduced in Chapter 1 is at the heart of all supply chains. Chapter 33 A Supply Chain of DNA 254When stocking out is not an option. Chapter 34 Cawlfield’s Principle 257A manager at Olin creates a simulation to get two divisions of his organization to work as a team and discovers a general principle in the process. Part 8 The Flaw of Averages and Some Hot Button Issues 263 Chapter 35 The Statistical Research Group of World War II 265The exciting environment in which my father became a statistician. Chapter 36 Probability and the War on Terror 272Two inescapable statistical trademarks of the war on terror are the problem of false positives and implications of Markov chains. Chapter 37 The Flaw of Averages and Climate Change 289The earth’s average temperature may actually be going down, not up, but you won’t be happy when you find out why. The Flaw of Averages permeates this issue. Chapter 38 The Flaw of Averages in Health Care 299Treating the average patient is not healthy. Chapter 39 Sex and the Central Limit Theorem 307Women have a diversified portfolio of two X chromosomes, whereas men have only one. Apparently it makes a difference. Probability Management Part 9 Toward a Cure for the Flaw of Averages 317 Chapter 40 The End of Statistics as You Were Taught It 319The ninetheenth-century statisticians confirmed their theories by simulating uncertainty with dice, cards, and numbered balls. Today, computerized dice, cards, and balls are bypassing the very theories they were trying to confirm. Chapter 41 Visualization 324Visual statistics provides a window into distributions. You need to see it to appreciate it. Chapter 42 Interactive Simulation: A New Lightbulb 328Imagine simulating 100,000 rolls of a die before your finger leaves the Enter key. A new technology does for probability distributions what the spreadsheet did for numbers. Chapter 43 Scenario Libraries: The Power Grid 332New data structures allow the results of simulations to be added together like numbers, providing a more practical approach to enterprisewide risk models. Chapter 44 The Fundamental Identity of SLURP Algebra 341This looks like math. Feel free to skip it. Chapter 45 Putting It into Practice 343The technology surrounding Probability Management is improving fast, and recent breakthroughs promises to make it more accessible than ever. Chapter 46 The CPO: Managing Probability Management 354The CPO must strike the correct balance between transparency of presentation, data collection, and statistical rigor. Chapter 47 A Posthumous Visit by My Father 364Some comments from the hereafter. Red Word Glossary 367 Notes 371 About the Author 382 Index 383

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Book SynopsisTable of ContentsA Note from the Series Editor xiii Acknowledgments xv Author Biography xvii 1 The Critical Role of Risk, High Concern, and Crisis Communication 1 1.1 Case Diary: A Collision of Facts and Perceptions 2 1.2 What Will Readers Find in This Book? 3 1.3 Why You Will Use This Book 4 1.4 The Need for This Book – Now 5 1.4.1 New Literature, New Research 5 1.4.2 Changes in the Communications Landscape 6 1.4.3 Changes in Journalism and the Perception of Facts 7 1.4.4 Changes in Laws, Regulations, and Societal Expectations 7 1.4.5 Changes in Concerns about Health, Safety, and the Environment 7 1.4.6 Changes in Levels of Trust 7 1.4.7 Changes in the Global Political Environment 8 1.4.8 The COVID- 19 Pandemic and the Changed Communication Landscape 8 2 Core Concepts 11 2.1 Case Diary: Recognizing Change as a High Concern Issue 11 2.2 Defining the Concept and Term Risk 13 2.3 Defining the Concept and Term Risk Communication 14 2.4 Risk Communication and Its Relationship to Risk Analysis 17 2.5 Defining the Concepts and Terms High Concern and High Concern Communication 19 2.6 Defining the Concept and Term Crisis 22 2.7 Defining the Concept and Term Crisis Communication 24 2.8 Chapter Resources 25 Endnotes 31 3 An Overview of Risk Communication 33 3.1 Case Diary: Complex Issues Destroy Homes 33 3.2 Challenges and Difficulties Faced in Communicating Risk Information 35 3.2.1 Characteristics and Limitations of Scientific and Technical Data about Risks 35 3.2.2 Characteristics and Limitations of Spokespersons in Communicating Information about Risks 35 3.2.2.1 Case Study: “Go Hard, Go Early”: Risk Communication Lessons from New Zealand’s Response to COVID-19 37 3.2.3 Characteristics and Limitations of Risk Management Regulations and Standards 41 3.2.3.1 Debates and Disagreements 41 3.2.3.2 Limited Resources for Risk Assessment and Management 41 3.2.3.3 Underestimating the Difficulty of and Need for Risk Communication 42 3.2.3.4 Lack of Coordination and Collaboration 42 3.2.4 Characteristics and Limitations of Traditional Media Channels in Communicating Information about Risks 42 3.2.5 Characteristics and Limitations of Social Media Channels in Communicating Information about Risks 43 3.2.6 Characteristics and Limitations of People in their Ability to Evaluate and Interpret Risk Information 44 3.3 Changes in How the Brain Processes Information Under Conditions of High Stress 48 3.4 Risk Communication Theory 49 3.4.1 Trust Determination Theory 49 3.4.2 Negative Dominance Theory 50 3.4.3 Mental Noise Theory 50 3.4.4 Risk Perception Theory 50 3.5 Risk Communication Principles and Guidelines 55 3.5.1 Principle 1. Accept and Involve All Interested and Affected Persons as Legitimate Partners 55 3.5.2 Principle 2. Plan Carefully and Evaluate Performance 55 3.5.3 Principle 3. Listen to Your Audience 57 3.5.4 Principle 4. Be Honest, Frank, and Open 57 3.5.5 Principle 5. Coordinate and Collaborate with Other Credible Sources 58 3.5.6 Principle 6. Meet the Needs of Traditional and Social Media 58 3.5.7 Principle 7. Speak Clearly and with Compassion 58 3.6 Key Takeaway Concepts and Conclusions from this Overview Chapter 59 3.7 Chapter Resources 59 Endnotes 66 4 Development of Risk Communication Theory and Practice 69 4.1 Case Diary: Origin Story 69 4.2 Introduction 70 4.2.1 Historical Phase 1: Presenting Risk Numbers 71 4.2.2 Historical Phase 2: Listening and Planning 71 4.2.3 Historical Phase 3: Stakeholder Engagement 72 4.2.4 Covello and Sandman’s Four Stages of Risk Communication 72 4.2.4.1 Stage 1: Ignore the Public 73 4.2.4.2 Stage 2: Explaining Risk Data Better 73 4.2.4.3 Stage 3: Stakeholder Engagement 77 4.2.4.4 Stage 4: Empowerment 78 4.3 Summary 79 4.4 Chapter Resources 79 Endnotes 83 5 Stakeholder Engagement and Empowerment 87 5.1 Case Diary: A Town Hall Public Meeting Goes Very Wrong 87 5.2 Introduction 89 5.3 Levels of Stakeholder Engagement 91 5.3.1 Types of Stakeholder Engagement 93 5.4 Benefits of Stakeholder Engagement 95 5.5 Limitations and Challenges of Stakeholder Engagement 96 5.6 Techniques and Approaches for Effective Stakeholder Engagement 97 5.7 Meetings with Stakeholders 100 5.7.1 Town Hall Meetings 101 5.7.2 Open House Meetings/Information Workshops 102 5.7.3 Tips for Meetings with Stakeholders 102 5.8 Chapter Resources 104 Endnotes 107 6 Communicating in a Crisis 111 6.1 Case Diary: The Challenge of Partnership in a Crisis 112 6.2 The Three Phases of a Crisis 113 6.3 Communication in the Precrisis Preparedness Phase 115 6.3.1 Precrisis Communication Activity: Identifying Potential Crises 117 6.3.2 Case Study: The 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill 118 6.3.3 Precrisis Communication Activity: Identify Goals and Objectives 120 6.3.4 Precrisis Communication Activity: Develop a Crisis Communication Plan 121 6.3.5 Precrisis Communication Activity: Identify, Train, and Test Crisis Communication Spokespersons 124 6.3.6 Precrisis Communication Activity: Engaging Stakeholders 124 6.3.7 Precrisis Communication Activity: Identifying Stakeholders’ Questions and Concerns 126 6.3.8 Drafting Messages for Anticipated Stakeholder Questions and Concerns 126 6.3.9 Precrisis Communication Activity: Conducting Exercises to Test the Crisis Communication Plan 128 6.3.10 Precrisis Communication Activity: Incident Command System (ICS) and the Joint Information Center (JIC) 129 6.4 Communications in the Crisis Response Phase 130 6.4.1 Case Study: Lac-Mégantic Rail Tragedy 134 6.4.2 Disaster and Emergency Warnings 136 6.4.2.1 Designing Effective Warnings 137 6.4.2.2 Steps in the Disaster and Emergency Warning Process 137 6.5 Communicating Effectively about Blame, Accountability, and Responsibility 139 6.6 Communicating an Apology 140 6.6.1 Case Study: Maple Leaf Foods and the Listeria Food Contamination Crisis 141 6.6.2 Case Study: Southwest Airlines Apology 144 6.7 Communications in the Postcrisis Recovery Phase 145 6.7.1 Case Study and Case Diary: New York City’s Communication Trials by Fire, from West Nile to 9/11 146 6.7.2 Case Study: Johnson & Johnson and the Tylenol Tampering Case 147 6.7.3 Case Study: Flint, Michigan and Contaminated Drinking Water 149 6.8 Chapter Resources 151 Endnotes 159 7 Foundational Principles: Perceptions, Biases, and Information Filters 165 7.1 Case Diary: “A” Is for “Apples” 165 7.2 Message Perception and Reception in High Concern Situations 168 7.3 Message Filter Theory: A Set of Principles Drawn from the Behavioral and Neuroscience Literature 169 7.4 Case Study: COVID- 19 and Risk Perception Factors 171 7.4.1 Social Amplification Filters 173 7.4.2 Mental Shortcut Filters 174 7.4.3 Knowledge and Belief Filters 176 7.4.4 Personality Filters 177 7.4.5 Negative Dominance/Loss Aversion Filters 177 7.5 Message Filters and the Brain 179 7.6 Message Filters, Perceptions, and Models of Human Behavior 179 7.7 Message Filters, Perceptions, and Persuasion 180 7.8 Message Filters, Perceptions, and Ethics 181 7.9 Message Filters and the Issue of Acceptable Risk 182 7.9.1 Factors in Determining Acceptable Risk 183 7.9.2 Strategies for Addressing Acceptable Risk 184 7.10 The Message is in the Mind of the Receiver 186 7.11 Chapter Resources 186 Endnotes 192 8 Foundational Principles: Trust, Culture, and Worldviews 197 8.1 Case Diary: A Disease Outbreak in Africa 198 8.2 Trust Determination 200 8.3 Characteristics and Attributes of Trust 201 8.3.1 Trust and First Impressions 203 8.3.2 Loss of Trust 204 8.3.3 Gaining Trust 206 8.3.3.1 Gaining Trust through Stakeholder Engagement 206 8.3.3.2 Gaining Trust through Trust Transference 206 8.3.3.3 Gaining Trust through Actions and Behavior 207 8.4 Case Study: Trust and the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident 207 8.5 Case Diary: The Fukushima Japan Nuclear Power Plant Accident 208 8.6 Gaining Trust in High- Stakes Negotiations 210 8.7 Case Diary: Gaining Trust and the SARS Outbreak in Hong Kong 211 8.8 Trust and Culture 212 8.9 Cultural Competency 212 8.9.1 Different Communication Styles 213 8.9.2 Different Attitudes and Approaches toward Conflict 214 8.9.3 Different Nonverbal Communication 214 8.9.4 Different Attitudes and Approaches to Decision Making 214 8.9.5 Different Attitudes and Approaches toward Information Disclosure 215 8.9.6 Different Attitudes and Approaches to Knowing 215 8.9.7 Different Attitudes and Approaches toward Conversation and Discourse 215 8.9.8 Different Attitudes and Approaches toward the Use of Humor 215 8.10 Risk Perceptions, Trust, and Cultural Theory 215 8.11 Risk Perceptions, Trust, and Worldviews 217 8.12 Case Diary: Fame, Family, and Fear in Public Health Communications 218 8.13 Chapter Resources 221 Endnotes 227 9 Best Practices for Message Development in High Concern Situations 231 9.1 Case Diary: Mapping Through a Maze of COVID Confusion 231 9.2 Introduction 232 9.3 Crafting Messages in the Context of Stress and High Concern Decision- Making 233 9.3.1 Trust Determination and Messaging in High-Stress Situations 233 9.3.1.1 The CCO Best Practice 233 9.3.2 Impaired Comprehension and Messaging in High-Stress Situations 234 9.3.3 Negative Dominance and Messaging in High-Stress Situations 234 9.3.4 Emotional Impact and Messaging in High-Stress Situations 235 9.3.4.1 Case Study: Hoarding Toilet Paper at the Outset of the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic 236 9.4 Message Mapping 238 9.4.1 Benefits of Message Maps 238 9.4.2 Message Maps and the Brain 241 9.4.3 The Development of Message Mapping 243 9.4.4 Case Study: Message Maps and Asbestos 244 9.4.5 Steps in Developing a Message Map 245 9.4.5.1 Step 1: Identify, Profile, and Prioritize Key Stakeholders 245 9.4.5.2 Step 2: Develop Lists of Stakeholder Questions and Concerns 248 9.4.5.3 Case Study: Stakeholder Questions, Terrorism, and Disasters 249 9.4.5.4 Step 3: Develop Key Messages 249 9.4.5.5 Step 4: Develop Supporting Information 252 9.4.5.6 Step 5: Testing the Message Map 253 9.4.5.7 Step 6: Repurpose Maps through Appropriate Information Channels 254 9.5 Summary 254 9.6 Chapter Resources 255 Endnotes 263 Appendices 265 Appendix 9.1 265 Appendix 9.2 267 Appendix 9.3 277 Appendix 9.4 280 10 Communicating Numbers, Statistics, and Technical Information about a Risk or Threat 285 10.1 Case Diary: A Civil Action 285 10.2 Introduction 288 10.3 Case Study: Numbers, Statistics, and COVID-19 289 10.4 Brain Processes That Filter How Technical Information about Risk or Threat Is Received and Understood 292 10.4.1 Risk and Threat Perception Filters 293 10.4.2 Thought Processing Filters 294 10.4.3 Mental Model Filters 294 10.4.4 Emotional Filters 295 10.4.5 Motivational Filters 295 10.5 Challenges in Explaining Technical Information About a Risk or Threat 296 10.6 Framing 297 10.7 Technical Jargon 298 10.8 Information Clarity 299 10.9 Units of Measurement 300 10.10 Case Study: Risk Numbers, Risk Statistics, and the Challenger Accident 303 10.11 Comparisons 304 10.12 Lessons Learned 308 10.13 Chapter Resources 308 Endnotes 315 11 Evaluating Risk, High Concern, and Crisis Communications 321 11.1 Case Diary: Finding the Road to Rio 321 11.1.1 The Mosquito Front 322 11.1.2 The Citizen Front 322 11.1.3 The Olympic Athlete and Visitor Front 323 11.1.4 Communication Strategy: The Citizen Front 323 11.1.5 Communication Strategy: Olympic Athlete and Visitor Front 323 11.2 Introduction 324 11.3 Benefits of Evaluation 326 11.4 Evaluation Practices for Risk, High Concern, and Crisis Communication 327 11.5 Case Studies of Evaluation Comparison to Best Practice: Hurricane Katrina, COVID-19 and Vaccination Hesitancy, and Outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China 329 11.5.1 Hurricane Katrina 329 11.5.2 COVID-19 and Vaccination Hesitancy 330 11.5.3 Outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China 330 11.6 Barriers and Challenges to Evaluation 332 11.6.1 Differences in Values 332 11.6.2 Differences in Goals 332 11.6.3 Competition for Resources 332 11.6.4 Ability to Learn from Results 333 11.7 Evaluation Measures 338 11.7.1 Process/Implementation Evaluation Measures 338 11.7.2 Outcome/Impact Evaluation Measures 339 11.7.3 Formative Evaluation Measures 340 11.8 An Integrated Approach to Evaluation 341 11.9 Resource: Case Study of Focus Group Testing of Mosquito-Control Messages, Florida, 2018–2019 342 11.10 Evaluation Tools 347 11.11 Chapter Resources 348 Endnotes 353 12 Communicating with Mainstream News Media 357 12.1 Case Diary: A High Stakes Chess Game with a News Media Outlet 357 12.2 Introduction 359 12.3 Characteristics of the Mainstream News Media 361 12.3.1 Content 361 12.3.2 Clarity 362 12.3.3 Avoiding Prejudice 362 12.3.4 Topicality 362 12.3.5 Diversity 363 12.3.6 Subject Matter Expertise 363 12.3.7 Resources 363 12.3.8 Career Advancement 364 12.3.9 Watchdogs 364 12.3.10 Amplifiers 364 12.3.11 Skepticism 364 12.3.12 Source Dependency 365 12.3.13 Professionalism and Independence 365 12.3.14 Covering Uncertainty 366 12.3.15 Legal Constraints 366 12.3.16 Special Populations 366 12.3.17 Competition 366 12.3.18 Confidentiality and Protection of Sources 367 12.3.19 Deadlines 367 12.3.20 Trust 367 12.3.21 Storytelling 368 12.3.22 Balance and Controversy 368 12.4 Guidelines and Best Practices for Interacting with Mainstream News Media 368 12.5 The Media Interview 370 12.6 Lessons and Trends 375 12.7 Case Diary: A Ten-Round Exercise 377 12.8 Chapter Resources 378 Endnotes 381 13 Social Media and the Changing Landscape for Risk, High Concern, and Crisis Communication 385 13.1 Case Diary: Myth-Busting: Mission Impossible? 385 13.2 Introduction 387 13.3 Benefits of Social Media Outlets for Risk, High Concern, and Crisis Communication 389 13.3.1 Speed 389 13.3.2 Access 390 13.3.3 Reach 390 13.3.4 Amplification 390 13.3.5 Transparency 390 13.3.6 Understanding 390 13.3.7 Changes in Behaviors 391 13.3.8 Relationship Building 391 13.3.9 Timeliness 391 13.3.10 Hyperlocal Specificity 391 13.3.11 Listening and Feedback 392 13.3.12 Taking Advantage of the Benefits of Social Media 392 13.4 Challenges of Social Media for Risk, High Concern, and Crisis Communication 393 13.4.1 Rising Expectations 393 13.4.2 Repostings/Redistribution 393 13.4.3 Permanent Storage 394 13.4.4 Hacking/Security 394 13.4.5 Rise and Fall of Social Media Platforms 394 13.4.6 Resources 394 13.4.7 Privacy and Confidentiality 394 13.4.8 Cognitive Overload 395 13.4.9 Players on the Field 395 13.4.10 Misinformation, Disinformation, and Rumors 395 13.5 Case Study: Social Media and the 2007 and 2011 Shooter Incidents at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech) 397 13.6 Case Study: Social Media and the 2013 Southern Alberta/Calgary Flood 398 13.7 Best Practices for Using Social Media in Risk, High Concern, and Crisis Situations 400 13.7.1 Create a Social Media Plan 400 13.7.2 Staff Appropriately for Social Media Communication 400 13.7.3 Ensure Continuous Updating 401 13.7.4 Identify Your Partners 401 13.7.5 Assess and Reassess Your Selection of Platforms 401 13.7.6 Create and Maintain as Many Social Media Accounts as You and Your Stakeholders Need 401 13.7.7 Be Prepared for the Special Social Media Requirements and Pressures in a Crisis 401 13.7.8 Provide Guidance for Employees and Engage Them in the Process 402 13.7.9 Don’t Skip Evaluation 403 13.8 Case Diary: Social Media and the Negative Power of“Junk”Information about Risks and Threats 403 13.9 Lessons Learned and Trends 404 13.10 Chapter Resources 404 Endnotes 408 Index 411

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Book SynopsisPresents information sources and methodologies for modeling and simulating banking system stability Combining both academic and institutional knowledge and experience, Banking Systems Simulation: Theory, Practice, and Application of Modeling Shocks, Losses, and Contagion presents banking system risk modeling clearly within a theoretical framework. Written from the global financial perspective, the book explores single bank risk, common bank exposures, and contagion, and how these apply on a systemic level. Zedda approaches these simulation methods logically by providing the basic building blocks of modeling and simulation, and then delving further into the individual techniques that make up a systems model. In addition, the author provides clear and detailed explanations of the foundational research into the mathematical and legal concepts used to analyze banking risk problems, measures and data for representing the main banking risk sources, and the majoTable of ContentsForeword xi Introduction xv 1 Banking Risk 1 1.1 Single Bank Risk 4 1.2 The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision Approach to Regulation 14 1.3 Banking Risk Modeling and Stress Testing 33 1.4 Contagion 36 1.5 System Modeling 41 2 Simulation Models 45 2.1 Simulating Shocks: Idiosyncratic Shocks, or Exogenous Failure of Individual Banks 49 2.2 Simulating Shocks: Stress Testing 54 2.3 Simulating Shocks: Systematic Common Shocks 56 2.4 Simulating Shocks: Common Shocks 58 2.5 Estimation of Losses Variability and Assets Riskiness 70 2.6 Simulating Shocks: Correlated Risk Factors 82 2.7 Simulating Shocks: Combining Idiosyncratic and Common Shocks 87 2.8 Correlation 89 2.9 The Interbank Matrix 98 2.10 Loss Given Default 127 2.11 Interbank Losses Attribution 132 2.12 Contagion Simulation Methods 133 2.13 Data and Applied Problems 140 3 Real Economy, Sovereign Risk, and Banking Systems Linkages 149 3.1 Effects of Bank Riskiness on Sovereign Risk 150 3.2 Effects of Sovereign Risk on Bank Riskiness 153 3.3 Linkages to the Real Economy 154 3.4 Modeling 156 3.5 Implementation 159 4 Applications 163 4.1 Testing for Banks–Public Finances Contagion Risk 163 4.2 Banking Systems Regulation What-If Tests 164 4.3 Banks’ Minimum Capital Requirements: Cost–Benefit Analysis 169 4.4 Deposits Guarantee Schemes (DGS)/Resolution Funds Dimensioning 174 4.5 Computing Capital Coverage from Assets PD and Bank PD 178 4.6 Computing Banks Probability to Default from Capital Coverage and Assets PD 180 4.7 Risk Contributions and SiFis 182 4.8 The Regulator’s Dilemma 202 Appendix: Software References and Tools 205 References 223 Index 235

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Book SynopsisPresents various challenges faced by security policy makers and risk analysts, and mathematical approaches that inform homeland security policy development and decision support Compiled by a group of highly qualified editors, this book provides a clear connection between risk science and homeland security policy making and includes top-notch contributions that uniquely highlight the role of risk analysis for informing homeland security policy decisions. Featuring discussions on various challenges faced in homeland security risk analysis, the book seamlessly divides the subject of risk analysis for homeland security into manageable chapters, which are organized by the concept of risk-informed decisions, methodology for applying risk analysis, and relevant examples and case studies. Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy and Decisions offers an enlightening overview of risk analysis methods for homeland security. For instance, it presents readers with an exploration oTable of ContentsAbout the Editors xix List of Contributors xxi Preface xxv Chapter Abstracts xxviii Part I Managing National Security Risk and Policy Programs 1 1 On the “Influence of Scenarios to Priorities” in Risk and Security Programs 3Heimir Thorisson and James H. Lambert 1.1 Introduction 3 1.2 Risk Programs 4 1.3 Canonical Questions Guiding Development of Risk Programs 6 1.3.1 Canonical Question I: Scope 6 1.3.2 Canonical Question II: Operational Design 7 1.3.3 Canonical Question III: Evaluation 7 1.4 Scenario-Based Preferences 8 1.5 Methodology 9 1.6 Demonstration of Methods 12 1.7 Discussion and Conclusions 20 Acknowledgments 22 References 22 2 Survey of Risk Analytic Guidelines Across the Government 25Isaac Maya, Amelia Liu, Lily Zhu, Francine Tran, Robert Creighton and CharlesWoo 2.1 Department of Defense (DOD) Overview 25 2.1.1 Joint Risk Analysis Methodology (JRAM) for the Chairman’s Risk Assessment (CRA) 26 2.1.2 Mission Assurance (MA): Risk Assessment and Management for DOD Missions 29 2.1.3 Risk Management Guide for DOD Acquisition 31 2.2 Department of Justice (DOJ) 33 2.3 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Overview 36 2.3.1 EPA Risk Leadership 36 2.3.2 EPA Risk Assessment Methodology and Guidelines 37 2.3.3 Risk Assessment Case Studies 40 2.3.4 Risk Assessment Challenges of EPA 43 2.3.5 Review of EPA Risk Assessment/Risk Management Methodologies 43 2.4 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA): Overview 44 2.4.1 NASA Risk Leadership 44 2.4.2 Critical Steps in NASA Risk Assessment/Risk Management 44 2.4.3 Risk Assessment/Risk Management Challenges of NASA 48 2.4.4 Review of NASA Risk Assessment/Risk Management Methodologies 49 2.5 Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Overview 49 2.5.1 NRC Leadership 51 2.5.2 Critical Steps in NRC Risk Assessment/Risk Management 52 2.5.3 Risk Assessment/Risk Management Challenges of NRC 53 2.5.4 Review of NRC Risk Assessment/Risk Management Methodologies 54 2.6 International Standards Organization (ISO) Overview 55 2.6.1 ISO Leadership 57 2.6.2 Critical Steps in ISO Risk Assessment/Risk Management 57 2.6.3 Risk Assessment/Risk Management Challenges of ISO 58 2.7 Australia Overview 58 2.7.1 Australia Leadership 59 2.7.2 Critical Steps in Australia Risk Assessment/Risk Management 60 2.7.3 Risk Assessment/Risk Management Challenges of Australia 61 2.8 UK Overview 61 2.8.1 UK Leadership 61 2.8.2 Critical Steps in UK Risk Assessment/Risk Management 62 2.8.3 Risk Assessment/Risk Management Challenges of the United Kingdom 65 Acknowledgments 65 References 65 3 An Overview of Risk ModelingMethods and Approaches for National Security 69Samrat Chatterjee, Robert T. Brigantic and Angela M.Waterworth 3.1 Introduction 69 3.2 Homeland Security Risk Landscape and Missions 70 3.2.1 Risk Landscape 71 3.2.2 Security Missions 71 3.2.3 Risk Definitions and Interpretations from DHS Risk Lexicon 72 3.3 Background Review 73 3.3.1 1960s to 1990s: Focus on Foundational Concepts 73 3.3.2 The 2000s: Increased Focus on Multi-hazard Risks Including Terrorism 75 3.3.3 2009 to Present: Emerging Emphasis on System Resilience and Complexity 78 3.4 Modeling Approaches for Risk Elements 88 3.4.1 Threat Modeling 88 3.4.2 VulnerabilityModeling 88 3.4.2.1 Survey-Based Methods 88 3.4.2.2 Systems Analysis 89 3.4.2.3 Network-Theoretic Approaches 89 3.4.2.4 Structural Analysis and ReliabilityTheory 89 3.4.3 Consequence Modeling 89 3.4.3.1 Direct Impacts 89 3.4.3.2 Indirect Impacts 89 3.4.4 Risk-Informed Decision Making 90 3.5 Modeling Perspectives for Further Research 90 3.5.1 Systemic Risk and ResilienceWithin a Unified Framework 90 3.5.2 Characterizing Cyber and Physical Infrastructure System Behaviors and Hazards 91 3.5.3 Utilizing “Big” Data or Lack of Data for Generating Risk and Resilience Analytics 91 3.5.4 Conceptual Multi-scale, Multi-hazard Modeling Framework 92 3.6 Concluding Remarks 94 Acknowledgments 95 References 95 4 Comparative Risk Rankings in Support of Homeland Security Strategic Plans 101Russell Lundberg 4.1 Introduction 101 4.2 Conceptual Challenges in Comparative Risk Ranking 102 4.3 Practical Challenges in Comparative Ranking of Homeland Security Risks 103 4.3.1 Choosing a Risk Set 104 4.3.1.1 Lessons from the DMRR on Hazard Set Selection 105 4.3.2 Identifying Attributes to Consider 105 4.3.2.1 Lessons from the DMRR on Attribute Selection 107 4.3.3 Assessing Each Risk Individually 109 4.3.3.1 Lessons from the DMRR on Assessing Individual Homeland Security Risks 111 4.3.4 Combining Individual Risks to Develop a Comparative Risk Ranking 112 4.3.4.1 Lessons from the DMRR on Comparing Homeland Security Risks 114 4.4 Policy Relevance to Strategic-Level Homeland Security Risk Rankings 116 4.4.1 Insights into Homeland Security Risk Rankings 116 4.4.2 Risk vs. Risk Reduction 118 Acknowledgments 120 References 120 5 A Data ScienceWorkflow for Discovering Spatial Patterns Among Terrorist Attacks and Infrastructure 125Daniel C. Fortin, Thomas Johansen, Samrat Chatterjee, GeorgeMuller and Christine Noonan 5.1 Introduction 125 5.2 The Data: Global Terrorism Database 126 5.3 The Tools: Exploring Data Interactively Using a Custom Shiny App 127 5.4 Example: Using the App to Explore ISIL Attacks 130 5.5 TheModels: StatisticalModels for Terrorist Event Data 134 5.6 More Data: Obtaining Regional Infrastructure Data to Build Statistical Models 135 5.7 A Model: Determining the Significance of Infrastructure on the Likelihood of an Attack 137 5.8 Case Study: Libya 138 5.9 Case Study: Jammu and Kashmir Region of India 139 5.9.1 The Model Revisited: Accounting for Many Regions with No Recorded Attacks 141 5.9.2 Investigating the Effect of Outliers 145 5.9.3 The Insight: What Have We Learned? 147 5.10 Summary 148 References 148 Part II Strengthening Ports of Entry 151 6 Effects of Credibility of Retaliation Threats in Deterring Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons 153Xiaojun Shan and Jun Zhuang 6.1 Introduction 153 6.2 Extending Prior Game-Based Model 158 6.3 Comparing the Game Trees 158 6.4 The Extended Model 161 6.5 Solution to the Extended Model 162 6.6 Comparing the Solutions in Prior Game-Based Model and This Study 163 6.7 Illustration of the Extended Model Using Real Data 164 6.8 Conclusion and Future Research Work 165 References 167 7 Disutility of Mass Relocation After a Severe Nuclear Accident 171VickiM. Bier and Shuji Liu 7.1 Introduction 171 7.2 Raw Data 174 7.3 Trade-Offs Between Cancer Fatalities and Relocation 177 7.4 Risk-Neutral DisutilityModel 179 7.5 Risk-Averse DisutilityModel 179 7.6 DisutilityModel with Interaction Effects 182 7.7 Economic Analysis 185 7.8 Conclusion 190 References 191 8 Scheduling Federal Air Marshals Under Uncertainty 193KeithW. DeGregory and Rajesh Ganesan 8.1 Introduction 193 8.2 Literature 196 8.2.1 Commercial Aviation Industry 196 8.2.2 Homeland Security and the Federal Air Marshals Service 198 8.2.3 Approximate Dynamic Programming 199 8.3 Air Marshal Resource Allocation Model 200 8.3.1 Risk Model 200 8.3.2 Static Allocation 202 8.3.3 Dynamic Allocation 203 8.4 Stochastic Dynamic Programming Formulation 204 8.4.1 System State 205 8.4.2 Decision Variable 205 8.4.3 Post-decision State 206 8.4.4 Exogenous Information 206 8.4.5 State Transition Function 206 8.4.6 Contribution Function 206 8.4.7 Objective Function 207 8.4.8 Bellman’s Optimality Equations 207 8.5 Phases of Stochastic Dynamic Programming 207 8.5.1 Exploration Phase 207 8.5.2 Learning Phase 208 8.5.2.1 Algorithm 208 8.5.2.2 Approximation Methods 208 8.5.2.3 Convergence 209 8.5.3 Learned Phase 210 8.6 Integrated Allocation Model 210 8.7 Results 211 8.7.1 Experiment 211 8.7.2 Results from Stochastic Dynamic Programming Model 211 8.7.3 Sensitivity Analysis 212 8.7.4 Model Output 214 8.8 Conclusion 217 Acknowledgments 218 References 218 Part III Securing Critical Cyber Assets 221 9 Decision Theory for Network Security: Active Sensing for Detection and Prevention of Data Exfiltration 223Sara M. McCarthy, Arunesh Sinha,Milind Tambe and Pratyusa Manadhatha 9.1 Introduction 223 9.1.1 Problem Domain 224 9.2 Background and RelatedWork 226 9.2.1 DNS Exfiltration 226 9.2.2 Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) 228 9.3 Threat Model 229 9.3.1 The POMDP Model 230 9.4 POMDP Abstraction 232 9.4.1 Abstract Actions 232 9.4.2 Abstract Observations 234 9.4.3 VD-POMDP Factored Representation 234 9.4.4 Policy Execution 236 9.5 VD-POMDP Framework 239 9.6 Evaluation 241 9.6.1 Synthetic Networks 241 9.6.2 DETER Testbed Simulation 241 9.6.3 Runtime 242 9.6.4 Performance 244 9.6.5 Robustness 246 9.7 GameTheoretic Extensions 247 9.7.1 Threat Model 248 9.8 Conclusion and FutureWork 249 Acknowledgments 249 References 249 10 Measurement of Cyber Resilience from an Economic Perspective 253Adam Z. Rose and NoahMiller 10.1 Introduction 253 10.2 Economic Resilience 254 10.2.1 Basic Concepts of Cyber Resilience 254 10.2.2 Basic Concepts of Economic Resilience 254 10.2.3 Economic Resilience Metrics 255 10.3 Cyber System Resilience Tactics 257 10.4 Resilience for Cyber-Related Sectors 267 10.4.1 Resilience in the Manufacturing of Cyber Equipment 267 10.4.2 Resilience in the Electricity Sector 268 10.5 Conclusion 269 References 270 11 Responses to Cyber Near-Misses: A Scale to Measure Individual Differences 275Jinshu Cui, Heather Rosoff and Richard S. John 11.1 Introduction 275 11.2 Scale Development and Analysis Outline 277 11.3 Method 278 11.3.1 Measures 278 11.3.1.1 Cyber Near-Miss Appraisal Scale (CNMAS) 278 11.3.1.2 Measures of Discriminant Validity 281 11.3.1.3 Measure of Predictive Validity 281 11.3.1.4 Participants and Procedures 281 11.4 Results 284 11.4.1 Dimensionality and Reliability 284 11.4.2 Item Response Analysis 284 11.4.3 Differential Item Functioning (DIF) 287 11.4.4 Effects of Demographic Variables 289 11.4.5 Discriminant Validity 290 11.4.6 Predictive Validity 290 11.5 Discussion 291 Acknowledgments 292 References 292 Part IV Enhancing Disaster Preparedness and Infrastructure Resilience 295 12 An InteractiveWeb-Based Decision Support Systemfor Mass Dispensing, Emergency Preparedness, and Biosurveillance 297Eva K. Lee, Ferdinand H. Pietz, Chien-Hung Chen and Yifan Liu 12.1 Introduction 297 12.2 System Architecture and Design 299 12.3 System Modules and Functionalities 301 12.3.1 Interactive User Experience 301 12.3.2 Geographical Boundaries 301 12.3.3 Network of Service, Locations, and Population Flow and Assignment 302 12.3.4 ZIP Code and Population Composition 304 12.3.5 Multimodality Dispensing and Public–Private Partnership 305 12.3.6 POD Layout Design and Resource Allocation 308 12.3.7 Radiological Module 309 12.3.8 Biosurveillance 309 12.3.9 Regional Information Sharing, Reverse Reporting, Tracking and Monitoring, and Resupply 310 12.3.10 Multilevel End-User Access 311 12.4 Biodefense, Pandemic Preparedness Planning, and Radiological and Large-Scale Disaster Relief Efforts 312 12.4.1 Biodefense Mass Dispensing Regional Planning 312 12.4.2 Real-Life Disaster Response Effort 315 12.4.2.1 RealOpt-Haiti© 315 12.4.2.2 RealOpt-Regional and RealOpt-CRC for Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster 316 12.4.2.3 RealOpt-ASSURE© 318 12.5 Challenges and Conclusions 319 Acknowledgments 321 References 321 13 Measuring Critical Infrastructure Risk, Protection, and Resilience in an All-Hazards Environment 325Julia A. Phillips and Frédéric Petit 13.1 Introduction to Critical Infrastructure Risk Assessment 325 13.2 Motivation for Critical Infrastructure Risk Assessments 326 13.2.1 Unrest pre-September 2001 326 13.2.2 Post-911 Critical Infrastructure Protection and Resilience 326 13.3 Decision Analysis Methodologies for Creating Critical Infrastructure Risk Indicators 327 13.3.1 Decision Analysis 328 13.3.2 Illustrative Calculations for an Index: Buying a Car 328 13.4 An Application of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Consequence, and Resilience Assessment 331 13.4.1 Protection and Vulnerability 334 13.4.1.1 Physical Security 335 13.4.1.2 Security Management 335 13.4.1.3 Security Force 335 13.4.1.4 Information Sharing 337 13.4.1.5 Security Activity Background 338 13.4.2 Resilience 339 13.4.2.1 Preparedness 341 13.4.2.2 Mitigation Measures 341 13.4.2.3 Response Capabilities 342 13.4.2.4 Recovery Mechanisms 343 13.4.3 Consequences 343 13.4.3.1 Human Consequences 345 13.4.3.2 Economic Consequences 346 13.4.3.3 Government Mission/Public Health/Psychological Consequences 346 13.4.3.4 Cascading Impact Consequences 347 13.4.4 Risk Indices Comparison 349 13.5 Infrastructure Interdependencies 350 13.6 What’s Next for Critical Infrastructure Risk Assessments 352 References 354 14 Risk AnalysisMethods in Resilience Modeling: An Overview of Critical Infrastructure Applications 357Hiba Baroud 14.1 Introduction 357 14.2 Background 358 14.2.1 Risk Analysis 358 14.2.2 Resilience 359 14.2.3 Critical Infrastructure Systems 360 14.3 Modeling the Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Systems 361 14.3.1 Resilience Models 361 14.3.1.1 Manufacturing 361 14.3.1.2 Communications 362 14.3.1.3 Dams, Levees, andWaterways 363 14.3.1.4 Defense 363 14.3.1.5 Emergency Services 363 14.3.1.6 Energy 363 14.3.1.7 Transportation 364 14.3.1.8 Water/Wastewater 364 14.3.2 Discussion 365 14.3.2.1 Economic Impact 365 14.3.2.2 Social Impact 367 14.3.2.3 Interdependencies 367 14.4 Assessing Risk in Resilience Models 368 14.4.1 Probabilistic Methods 368 14.4.2 UncertaintyModeling 369 14.4.3 Simulation-Based Approaches 369 14.4.4 Data-Driven Analytics 370 14.5 Opportunities and Challenges 370 14.5.1 Opportunities 370 14.5.2 Challenges 371 14.6 Concluding Remarks 372 References 373 15 Optimal Resource Allocation Model to Prevent, Prepare, and Respond to Multiple Disruptions, with Application to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Hurricane Katrina 381Cameron A.MacKenzie and Amro Al Kazimi 15.1 Introduction 381 15.2 Model Development 383 15.2.1 Resource Allocation Model 383 15.2.2 Extension to Uncertain Parameters 385 15.3 Application: Deepwater Horizon and Hurricane Katrina 386 15.3.1 Parameter Estimation 386 15.3.1.1 Oil Spill Parameters 387 15.3.1.2 Hurricane Parameters 388 15.3.2 Base Case Results 391 15.3.3 Sensitivity Analysis on Economic Impacts 394 15.3.4 Model with Uncertain Effectiveness 395 15.4 Conclusions 397 References 398 16 Inoperability Input–Output Modeling of Electric Power Disruptions 405Joost R. Santos, Sheree Ann Pagsuyoin and Christian Yip 16.1 Introduction 405 16.2 Risk Analysis of Natural and Man-Caused Electric Power Disruptions 407 16.3 Risk Management Insights for Disruptive Events 408 16.4 Modeling the Ripple Effects for Disruptive Events 411 16.5 Inoperability Input–Output Model 412 16.5.1 Model Parameters 412 16.5.2 Sector Inoperability 413 16.5.3 InterdependencyMatrix 413 16.5.4 Demand Perturbation 414 16.5.5 Economic Resilience 414 16.5.6 Economic Loss 415 16.6 Sample Electric Power Disruptions Scenario Analysis for the United States 416 16.7 Summary and Conclusions 421 References 422 17 Quantitative Assessment of Transportation Network Vulnerability with Dynamic Traffic Simulation Methods 427Venkateswaran Shekar and Lance Fiondella 17.1 Introduction 427 17.2 Dynamic Transportation Network Vulnerability Assessment 429 17.3 Sources of Input for Dynamic Transportation Network Vulnerability Assessment 431 17.4 Illustrations 432 17.4.1 Example 1: Simple Network 432 17.4.2 Example II: University of Massachusetts Dartmouth Evacuation 437 17.5 Conclusion and Future Research 439 References 440 18 Infrastructure Monitoring for Health and Security 443Prodyot K. Basu 18.1 Introduction 443 18.2 Data Acquisition 447 18.3 Sensors 447 18.3.1 Underlying Principles of Some of the Popular Sensors Listed in Table 18.1 451 18.3.1.1 Fiber Optics 451 18.3.1.2 VibratingWire 451 18.3.1.3 Piezoelectric Sensors 456 18.3.1.4 Piezoresistive Sensors 456 18.3.1.5 Laser Vibrometer 456 18.3.1.6 Acoustic Emission Sensing 457 18.3.1.7 GPS and GNSS 458 18.3.2 Selection of a Sensor 459 18.4 Capturing and Transmitting Signals 459 18.5 Energy Harvesting 461 18.6 Robotic IHM 462 18.7 Cyber-Physical Systems 464 18.8 Conclusions 464 References 465 19 Exploring Metaheuristic Approaches for Solving the Traveling Salesman Problem Applied to Emergency Planning and Response 467Ramakrishna Tipireddy, Javier Rubio-Herrero, Samrat Chatterjee and Satish Chikkagoudar 19.1 The Traveling Salesman Problem 467 19.1.1 Definition 467 19.1.2 Computational Complexity 467 19.1.3 Solution Algorithms 468 19.1.4 Emergency Response Application 468 19.2 Emergency Planning and Response as a Traveling Salesman Problem 468 19.3 Metaheuristic Approaches 469 19.3.1 Simulated Annealing 470 19.3.1.1 Overview 470 19.3.1.2 Pseudocode 471 19.3.1.3 Case Study Results 473 19.3.2 Tabu Search 473 19.3.2.1 Overview 473 19.3.2.2 Pseudocode 474 19.3.2.3 Case Study Results 476 19.3.3 Genetic Algorithms 476 19.3.3.1 Overview 476 19.3.3.2 Pseudocode 478 19.3.3.3 Case Study Results 479 19.3.4 Ant Colony Optimization 479 19.3.4.1 Overview 479 19.3.4.2 Stochastic Solution Construction 480 19.3.4.3 Pheromone Update 480 19.3.4.4 Pseudocode 481 19.3.4.5 Case Study Results 481 19.4 Discussion 482 19.5 Concluding Remarks 482 References 484 Index 487

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Book SynopsisOpRisk Awards 2020 Book of the Year Winner!The Authoritative Guide to the Best Practices in Operational Risk Management Operational Risk Management offers a comprehensive guide that contains a review of the most up-to-date and effective operational risk management practices in the financial services industry. The book provides an essential overview of the current methods and best practices applied in financial companies and also contains advanced tools and techniques developed by the most mature firms in the field. The author explores the range of operational risks such as information security, fraud or reputation damage and details how to put in place an effective program based on the four main risk management activities: risk identification, risk assessment, risk mitigation and risk monitoring. The book also examines some specific types of operational risks that rank high on many firms' risk registers. Drawing on the author's extensive experience working with and advising financial companies, Operational Risk Management is written both for those new to the discipline and for experienced operational risk managers who want to strengthen and consolidate their knowledge.Table of ContentsAbout the Author xi Foreword xiii Preface xv Introduction xix PART ONE Risk Identification 1 CHAPTER 1 Risk Identification Tools 3 CHAPTER 2 Scenario Identification Process 13 CHAPTER 3 Risk Definition and Taxonomy 19 CHAPTER 4 Risk Connectivity and Risk Networks 29 PART TWO Risk Assessment 35 CHAPTER 5 Risk Appetite 37 CHAPTER 6 Risk and Control Self-Assessments 51 CHAPTER 7 Scenario Assessment 63 CHAPTER 8 Regulatory Capital and Modeling 77 PART THREE Risk Mitigation 93 CHAPTER 9 Operational Risk Governance 95 CHAPTER 10 Risk Mitigation 105 CHAPTER 11 Root Cause Analysis and Action Plans 115 CHAPTER 12 Conduct and Culture 119 PART FOUR Risk Monitoring 127 CHAPTER 13 Incident Data Collection 129 CHAPTER 14 Key Risk Indicators 141 CHAPTER 15 Risk Reporting 157 CHAPTER 16 Valuable ORM 171 PART FIVE Rising Operational Risks 179 CHAPTER 17 Project Risk Management 181 CHAPTER 18 Information Security Risks 193 CHAPTER 19 Operational Risks in Cryptocurrencies 207 CHAPTER 20 Resilience and Reputation 221 Conclusion 231 Index 235

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Book SynopsisAn incisive framework for companies seeking to increase their resilience In The Black Swan Problem: Risk Management Strategies for a World of Wild Uncertainty, renowned risk and finance expert Håkan Jankensgård delivers an extraordinary and startling discussion of how firms should navigate a world of uncertainty and unexpected events. It examines three fundamental, high-level strategies for creating resilience in the face of black swan risks, highly unlikely but devastating events: insurance, buffering, and flexibility: The author also presents: Detailed case studies, stories, and examples of major firms that failed to anticipate Black Swan Problems and, as a result, were either wiped out or experienced a major strategy disruptionExtending the usual academic focus on individual biases to analyze Swans from an organizational perspective and prime organizations to proactive rather than reactive actionPractical applications and tactics to mitigate Black Swan risks and protect corporate strategies against catastrophic losses and the collateral damage that they causeStrategies and tools for turning Black Swan events into opportunities, reflecting the fact that resilience can be used for strategic advantage An expert blueprint for companies seeking to anticipate, mitigate, and process tail risks, The Black Swan Problem is a must-read for students and practitioners of risk management, executives, founders, managers, and other business leaders.Table of ContentsPrologue 3 Chapter 1: The Swans Revisited 7 The nature of randomness 8 The Moving Tail 11 The role of expectations 16 What makes us suckers? 20 The relativity of Black Swans 24 Meet the preppers 28 Chapter 2: Corporate Swans 31 The Board’s perspective 31 Swans attack 33 Strategy Swans 35 The Swan within 39 The growth fetish 42 The fear factor 47 The Chief Executive Swan 49 Swans on the rise 52 Chapter 3: The Black Swan Problem 60 Tail risk and firm value 60 Understanding wipeouts 65 Strategy disruption 71 All you zombies 76 The affordability issue 78 The conundrum 84 Chapter 4: Greeting the Swan 90 Randomness redux 90 The roads not taken 98 Functional stupidity 102 The Swanmakers 108 On tools and models 112 A Swan radar for the Board 116 Chapter 5: Taming the Swan 122 Drawing the line 122 Distance to wipeout 129 Risk capital 131 Stress testing 140 The exit option 146 Resilience vs endurance 150 Quantitative models 155 Liquidity is king 162 Chapter 6: Catching the Swan 166 Antifragility 167 Restoring the true path 170 Buying on the cheap 173 Opportunity capital 176 Flight to safety 182 Risk as strategy 187 Chapter 7: Riding the Swan 192 Risk shifting 192 A beautiful strategy 199 Fuel for growth 203 Narcissism redeemed 208 A tail of two companies 211 End of the ride 215 Swans to the rescue? 217 Epilogue 221

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Book SynopsisProtect your organization against financial misconduct In Financial Risk Management: From Metrics to Human Conduct, Frantz Maurer delivers a thorough and practical review of the core methods used by professionals in the real world to reduce the risk of financial misconduct. Starting with the key points of banking regulation, the author then describes in simple terms the most extensively used risk metrics in the banking industry. Readers can fully grasp and implement the techniques discussed within without a strong background in probabilities or statistics. The last part of the book focuses on conduct risk markers and show how to implement a conduct risk index that benchmarks the conduct of natural risk-takers like traders. The author describes how to marry this simple approach to financial risk with a conduct risk index that benchmarks the conduct of natural risk-takers, like traders. Readers will also find: Step-by-step guidance on how to apply common risk indicators to real-world situationsActionable advice for improving the resilience of financial institutions against individual misconduct and misbehavior A holistic and non-quantitative approach to a subject of critical importance, Financial Risk Management: From Metrics to Human Conduct will earn a place in the libraries of risk managers, compliance professionals, and master's level students in business administration and finance.Table of ContentsForeword ix Acknowledgements xi List of Acronyms and Symbols xiii Introduction xvii Part One Navigating Banking Regulation Chapter 1 A Brief History of the Basel Framework 3 Chapter 2 The Basel I Regulatory Framework and the Cooke Ratio 7 Chapter 3 Amendment to the Basel I Framework to Incorporate Market Risks 15 Chapter 4 Implementation of the Basel II Framework 21 Chapter 5 A Guided Tour of the Basel III Framework 29 Chapter 6 Climate- Related Financial Risks 41 Part Two The Financial Risk Measurement Landscape Chapter 7 Historical Approach to Risk 47 Chapter 8 The Gaussian Framework 61 Chapter 9 A Brief Overview of Monte Carlo Simulation 75 Chapter 10 Risk Contribution 79 Chapter 11 Shortcomings of Risk Metrics 93 Chapter 12 Ex- Post Evaluation of a Risk Model: Backtesting 103 Chapter 13 A Forward- Looking Evaluation of Risk: Stress Testing 109 Part Three Getting Conduct Risk to Scale Chapter 14 The Big Picture of Conduct Risk 119 Chapter 15 Markers of Conduct Risk 123 Chapter 16 Worked Example 7: Building a Conduct Risk Score 127 Chapter 17 Fostering a Culture of Appropriate Conduct Outcomes 137 Chapter 18 Worked Example 8: Calculating a Risk-Taker’s Conduct Risk Index 143 Chapter 19 Hot Questions Still Pending 159 Chapter 20 Understanding the Root Causes of Poor Conduct 163 Appendix 173 References 181 Contents 183 List of Figures 187 List of Tables 189 Index 191

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Book SynopsisThis book presents the issues core to risk analysis: understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making.Trade Review"The book provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty." (Zentralblatt MATH, 1 December 2012) Table of ContentsPreface to the second edition ix Preface to the first edition xi 1 Introduction 1 1.1 The importance of risk and uncertainty assessments 1 1.2 The need to develop a proper risk analysis framework 4 Bibliographic notes 6 2 Common thinking about risk and risk analysis 7 2.1 Accident risk 7 2.1.1 Accident statistics 7 2.1.2 Risk analysis 11 2.1.3 Reliability analysis 24 2.2 Economic risk 28 2.2.1 General definitions of economic risk in business and project management 28 2.2.2 A cost risk analysis 30 2.2.3 Finance and portfolio theory 31 2.2.4 Treatment of risk in project discounted cash flow analysis 34 2.3 Discussion and conclusions 36 2.3.1 The classical approach 36 2.3.2 The Bayesian paradigm 37 2.3.3 Economic risk and rational decision-making 39 2.3.4 Other perspectives and applications 40 2.3.5 Conclusions 43 Bibliographic notes 43 3 How to think about risk and risk analysis 47 3.1 Basic ideas and principles 47 3.1.1 Background knowledge 52 3.1.2 Models and simplifications in probability considerations 53 3.1.3 Observable quantities 53 3.2 Economic risk 54 3.2.1 A simple cost risk example 54 3.2.2 Production risk 57 3.2.3 Business and project management 59 3.2.4 Investing money in a stock market 60 3.2.5 Discounted cash flow analysis 61 3.3 Accident risk 62 3.4 Discussion 63 Bibliographic notes 68 4 How to assess uncertainties and specify probabilities 71 4.1 What is a good probability assignment? 72 4.1.1 Criteria for evaluating probabilities 72 4.1.2 Heuristics and biases 74 4.1.3 Evaluation of the assessors 75 4.1.4 Standardization and consensus 76 4.2 Modeling 76 4.2.1 Examples of models 77 4.2.2 Discussion 78 4.3 Assessing uncertainty of Y 79 4.3.1 Assignments based on classical statistical methods 80 4.3.2 Analyst judgments using all sources of information 81 4.3.3 Formal expert elicitation 82 4.3.4 Bayesian analysis 83 4.4 Uncertainty Assessments of a Vector X 91 4.4.1 Cost risk 91 4.4.2 Production risk 93 4.4.3 Reliability analysis 94 4.5 Discussion 97 4.5.1 Risk analysis and science 97 4.5.2 Probability and utility 98 4.5.3 Probability and knowledge 99 4.5.4 Probability models 99 4.5.5 Firm and vague probabilities 100 4.5.6 The need for seeing beyond probabilities 100 4.5.7 Interval (imprecise) probabilities 101 4.5.8 Example of interval (imprecise) probabilities in a risk analysis setting 102 4.5.9 Possibility theory 103 4.5.10 Example of interval (imprecise) probabilities in a risk analysis context using possibility theory 104 4.5.11 Final comments 106 Bibliographic notes 108 5 How to use risk analysis to support decision-making 111 5.1 What is a good decision? 112 5.1.1 Features of a decision-making model 113 5.1.2 Decision-support tools 114 5.1.3 Discussion 119 5.2 Some examples 122 5.2.1 Accident risk 122 5.2.2 Scrap in place or complete removal of plant 125 5.2.3 Production system 130 5.2.4 Reliability target 131 5.2.5 Health risk 133 5.2.6 Warranties 135 5.2.7 Offshore development project 136 5.2.8 Risk assessment: National sector 138 5.2.9 Multi-attribute utility example 140 5.3 Risk problem classification schemes 143 5.3.1 A scheme based on consequences and uncertainties 143 5.3.2 A scheme based on closeness to hazard and level of authority 147 Bibliographic notes 158 6 Summary and conclusions 161 Appendix A: Basic theory of probability and statistics 165 A.1 Probability theory 165 A.1.1 Types of probabilities 165 A.1.2 Probability rules 168 A.1.3 Random quantities (random variables) 172 A.1.4 Some common discrete probability distributions (models) 176 A.1.5 Some common continuous distributions (models) 178 A.1.6 Some remarks on probability models and their parameters 182 A.1.7 Random processes 183 A.2 Classical statistical inference 184 A.2.1 Nonparametric estimation 184 A.2.2 Estimation of distribution parameters 185 A.2.3 Testing hypotheses 187 A.2.4 Regression 188 A.3 Bayesian inference 189 A.3.1 Statistical (Bayesian) decision analysis 191 Bibliographic notes 192 Appendix B: Terminology 193 B.1 Risk management: Relationships between key terms 195 References 197 Index 207

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Book SynopsisYour business reputation can take years to build and mere minutes to destroy The range of business threats is evolving rapidly but your organization can thrive and gain a competitive advantage with your business vision for enterprise risk management.Table of ContentsList of Figures xxvii Preface to the Second Edition xxxi Acknowledgements xxxv About the Author xxxvii Part I Enterprise Risk Management In Context 1 1 Introduction 3 1.1 Risk Diversity 4 1.2 Approach to Risk Management 5 1.3 Business Growth Through Risk Taking 5 1.4 Risk and Opportunity 6 1.5 The Role of the Board 7 1.6 Primary Business Objective (or Goal) 8 1.7 What is Enterprise Risk Management? 9 1.8 Benefits of Enterprise Risk Management 10 1.9 Structure 12 1.9.1 Corporate Governance 12 1.9.2 Internal Control 13 1.9.3 Implementation 14 1.9.4 Risk Management Framework 14 1.9.5 Risk Management Policy 15 1.9.6 Risk Management Process 15 1.9.7 Sources of Risk 16 1.10 Summary 16 1.11 References 16 2 Developments in Corporate Governance in the UK 19 2.1 Investor Unrest 19 2.2 The Problem of Agency 20 2.3 The Cadbury Committee 21 2.4 The Greenbury Report 23 2.5 The Hampel Committee and the Combined Code of 1998 23 2.6 Smith Guidance on Audit Committees 23 2.7 Higgs 24 2.8 Tyson 24 2.9 Combined Code on Corporate Governance 2003 25 2.10 Companies Act 2006 26 2.11 Combined Code on Corporate Governance 2008 26 2.12 Sir David Walker’s Review of Corporate Governance, July 2009 (Consultation Paper) 27 2.13 Sir David Walker’s Review of Corporate Governance, November 2009 (Final Recommendation) 29 2.14 House of Commons Treasury Committee 2009 30 2.15 UK Corporate Governance Code, June 2010 32 2.16 The “Comply or Explain” Regime 34 2.17 Definition of Corporate Governance 34 2.18 Formation of Companies 35 2.19 The Financial Services Authority and Markets Act 2000 36 2.20 The London Stock Exchange 36 2.21 Summary 37 2.22 References 38 3 Developments in Corporate Governance in the US 41 3.1 Corporate Governance 41 3.2 The Securities and Exchange Commission 42 3.2.1 Creation of the SEC 42 3.2.2 Organisation of the SEC 43 3.3 The Laws That Govern the Securities Industry 44 3.3.1 Securities Act 1933 44 3.3.2 Securities Exchange Act 1934 44 3.3.3 Trust Indenture Act 1939 45 3.3.4 Investment Company Act 1940 45 3.3.5 Investment Advisers Act 1940 45 3.4 Catalysts for the Sarbanes-Oxley Act 2002 45 3.4.1 Enron 46 3.4.2 WorldCom 47 3.4.3 Tyco International 47 3.4.4 Provisions of the Act 50 3.4.5 Implementation 52 3.4.6 Sarbanes-Oxley Section 404 52 3.4.7 The Positive Effects of Post-Enron Reforms 52 3.4.8 Criticism of Section 404 Before the Global Financial Crisis 54 3.4.9 Criticism of Section 404 After the Global Financial Crisis 54 3.5 National Association of Corporate Directors 2008 55 3.6 Summary 56 3.7 References 57 4 The Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009: A US Perspective 59 4.1 The Financial Crisis in Summary 59 4.2 How the Financial Crisis Unfolded 60 4.3 The United States Mortgage Finance Industry 61 4.4 Subprime Model of Mortgage Lending 61 4.4.1 Contributing Events to the Credit Crisis 61 4.4.2 Foreclosures 63 4.4.3 Negative Equity 65 4.4.4 Housing Surplus 67 4.4.5 Vicious Circles 68 4.5 Why this Crisis Warrants Close Scrutiny 68 4.6 Behaviours 70 4.6.1 Investor Behaviour in the Search for Yield 70 4.6.2 Mortgage Lending Behaviour 71 4.6.3 Bank Behaviour and Risk Transfer through Securitised Credit 71 4.6.4 “Group Think” and Herd Behaviour 72 4.6.5 Banks’ Behaviour and Risk Appetite 74 4.6.6 Behaviour of Regulators and the Division of “Narrow Banking” from Investment Banking 75 4.6.7 Banks’ Behaviour and Misplaced Reliance of Sophisticated Mathematics and Statistics 75 4.7 Worldwide Deficiencies in Risk Management 76 4.8 Federal Reform 76 4.9 Systemic Risk 79 4.10 The Future of Risk Management 81 4.11 Summary 82 4.12 References 82 5 Developments in Corporate Governance in Australia and Canada 85 5.1 Australian Corporate Governance 85 5.1.1 Regulation Arising from Corporate Failures 85 5.1.2 Corporate Governance Reforms Following the Accounting Scandals of the Early 2000s 86 5.1.3 Horwath 2002 Corporate Governance Report 88 5.1.4 The ASX Corporate Governance Council 89 5.1.5 Financial Statements 90 5.2 Canada 90 5.2.1 Dey Report 90 5.2.2 Dey Revisited 91 5.2.3 Kirby Report 91 5.2.4 Saucier Committee 92 5.2.5 National Policy and Instrument (April 2005) 92 5.2.6 TSE Corporate Governance: Guide to Good Disclosure 2006 93 5.3 Summary 94 5.4 References 94 6 Internal Control and Risk Management 97 6.1 The Composition of Internal Control 97 6.2 Risk as a Subset of Internal Control 98 6.2.1 The Application of Risk Management 98 6.3 Allocation of Responsibility 102 6.3.1 Cadbury Committee 102 6.3.2 Hampel Committee 102 6.3.3 Turnbull 103 6.3.4 Higgs Review 104 6.3.5 Smith Review 104 6.3.6 OECD 105 6.4 The Context of Internal Control and Risk Management 106 6.5 Internal Control and Risk Management 107 6.6 Embedding Internal Control and Risk Management 107 6.7 Summary 107 6.8 References 108 7 Developments in Risk Management in the UK Public Sector 109 7.1 Responsibility for Risk Management in Government 109 7.1.1 Cabinet Office 110 7.1.2 Treasury 111 7.1.3 Office of Government Commerce 111 7.1.4 National Audit Office 112 7.2 Risk Management Publications 112 7.3 Successful IT 113 7.4 Supporting Innovation 115 7.4.1 Part 1: Why Risk Management is Important 115 7.4.2 Part 2: Comprehension of Risk Management 115 7.4.3 Part 3: What More Needs to be Done to Improve Risk Management 115 7.5 The Orange Book 116 7.5.1 Identify the Risks and Define a Framework 116 7.5.2 Assign Ownership 116 7.5.3 Evaluate 117 7.5.4 Assess Risk Appetite 117 7.5.5 Response to Risk 117 7.5.6 Gain Assurance 118 7.5.7 Embed and Review 118 7.6 Audit Commission 118 7.7 CIPFA/SOLACE Corporate Governance 120 7.8 M_o_R 2002 121 7.9 DEFRA 123 7.9.1 Risk Management Strategy 123 7.10 Strategy Unit Report 124 7.11 Risk and Value Management 125 7.12 The Green Book 126 7.12.1 Optimism Bias 126 7.12.2 Annex 4 127 7.13 CIPFA Guidance on Internal Control 127 7.14 Managing Risks to Improve Public Services 129 7.15 The Orange Book (Revised) 131 7.16 M_o_R 2007 132 7.17 Managing Risks in Government 132 7.18 Summary 134 7.19 References 136 Part II The Risk Management Process 137 References 139 8 Establishing the Context: Stage 1 141 8.1 Process 141 8.2 Process Goal and Subgoals 142 8.3 Process Definition 143 8.4 Process Inputs 143 8.5 Process Outputs 145 8.6 Process Controls (Constraints) 145 8.7 Process Mechanisms (Enablers) 146 8.7.1 Ratios 146 8.7.2 Risk Management Process Diagnostic 147 8.7.3 SWOT Analysis 148 8.7.4 PEST Analysis 148 8.8 Process Activities 149 8.8.1 Business Objectives 149 8.8.2 Business Plan 150 8.8.3 Examining the Industry 151 8.8.4 Establishing the Processes 151 8.8.5 Projected Financial Statements 153 8.8.6 Resources 155 8.8.7 Change Management 155 8.8.8 Marketing Plan 155 8.8.9 Compliance Systems 156 8.9 Summary 156 8.10 References 156 9 Risk Identification: Stage 2 159 9.1 Process 159 9.2 Process Goal and Subgoals 159 9.3 Process Definition 160 9.4 Process Inputs 161 9.5 Process Outputs 162 9.6 Process Controls (Constraints) 162 9.7 Process Mechanisms (Enablers) 163 9.7.1 Risk Checklist 163 9.7.2 Risk Prompt List 163 9.7.3 Gap Analysis 163 9.7.4 Risk Taxonomy 164 9.7.5 PEST Prompt 165 9.7.6 SWOT Prompt 168 9.7.7 Database 168 9.7.8 Business Risk Breakdown Structure 169 9.7.9 Risk Questionnaire 169 9.7.10 Risk Register Content/Structure 170 9.8 Process Activities 171 9.8.1 Clarifying the Business Objectives 171 9.8.2 Reviewing the Business Analysis 171 9.8.3 Need for Risk and Opportunity Identification 171 9.8.4 Risk and Opportunity Identification 172 9.8.5 Facilitation 172 9.8.6 Gaining a Consensus on the Risks, the Opportunities and their Interdependencies 182 9.8.7 Risk Register 182 9.9 Summary 182 9.10 References 182 10 Risk Analysis: Stage 3 185 10.1 Process 185 10.2 Process Goal and Subgoals 186 10.3 Process Definition 186 10.4 Process Inputs 186 10.5 Process Outputs 188 10.6 Process Controls (Constraints) 188 10.7 Process Mechanisms (Enablers) 188 10.7.1 Probability 188 10.8 Process Activities 189 10.8.1 Causal Analysis 190 10.8.2 Decision Analysis and Influence Diagrams 190 10.8.3 Pareto Analysis 193 10.8.4 CAPM Analysis 194 10.8.5 Define Risk Evaluation Categories and Values 195 10.9 Summary 195 10.10 References 196 11 Risk Evaluation: Stage 4 197 11.1 Process 197 11.2 Process Goal and Subgoals 197 11.3 Process Definition 198 11.4 Process Inputs 198 11.5 Process Outputs 198 11.6 Process Controls (Constraints) 199 11.7 Process Mechanisms (Enablers) 200 11.7.1 Probability Trees 200 11.7.2 Expected Monetary Value 201 11.7.3 Utility Theory and Functions 203 11.7.4 Decision Trees 204 11.7.5 Markov Chain 208 11.7.6 Investment Appraisal 210 11.8 Process Activities 215 11.8.1 Basic Concepts of Probability 215 11.8.2 Sensitivity Analysis 216 11.8.3 Scenario Analysis 217 11.8.4 Simulation 217 11.8.5 Monte Carlo Simulation 218 11.8.6 Latin Hypercube 220 11.8.7 Probability Distributions Defined from Expert Opinion 220 11.9 Summary 221 11.10 References 222 12 Risk Treatment: Stage 5 223 12.1 Process 223 12.2 Process Goal and Subgoals 223 12.3 Process Definition 224 12.4 Process Inputs 224 12.5 Process Outputs 224 12.6 Process Controls (Constraints) 225 12.7 Process Mechanisms 225 12.8 Process Activities 226 12.9 Risk Appetite 226 12.10 Risk Response Strategies 228 12.10.1 Risk Reduction 228 12.10.2 Risk Removal 228 12.10.3 Risk Reassignment or Transfer 229 12.10.4 Risk Retention 230 12.11 Summary 230 12.12 References 231 13 Monitoring and Review: Stage 6 233 13.1 Process 233 13.2 Process Goal and Subgoals 234 13.3 Process Definition 234 13.4 Process Inputs 235 13.5 Process Outputs 235 13.6 Process Controls (Constraints) 235 13.7 Process Mechanisms 236 13.8 Process Activities 236 13.8.1 Executing 236 13.8.2 Monitoring 236 13.8.3 Controlling 237 13.9 Summary 239 13.10 Reference 240 14 Communication and Consultation: Stage 7 241 14.1 Process 241 14.2 Process Goal and Subgoals 242 14.3 Process Definition 242 14.4 Process Inputs 243 14.5 Process Outputs 243 14.6 Process Controls (Constraints) 244 14.7 Process Mechanisms 244 14.8 Process Activities 244 14.9 Internal Communication 245 14.10 External Communication 245 14.11 Summary 245 14.12 Reference 246 Part III Internal Influences – Micro Factors 247 15 Financial Risk Management 249 15.1 Definition of Financial Risk 249 15.2 Scope of Financial Risk 250 15.3 Benefits of Financial Risk Management 250 15.4 Implementation of Financial Risk Management 251 15.5 Liquidity Risk 251 15.5.1 Current and Quick Ratios 251 15.5.2 Mitigation of Liquidity Risk 253 15.6 Credit Risk 253 15.6.1 Default Risk 253 15.6.2 Exposure Risk 254 15.6.3 Recovery Risk 254 15.6.4 Credit Insurance 255 15.6.5 Counterparty Risk 256 15.6.6 Due Diligence 256 15.7 Borrowing 259 15.8 Currency Risk 259 15.9 Funding Risk 260 15.10 Foreign Investment Risk 262 15.10.1 Country Risk 262 15.10.2 Environment Risk 263 15.11 Derivatives 263 15.11.1 Exchange Traded Derivatives 263 15.11.2 Over-the-Counter Derivatives 264 15.12 Summary 264 15.13 References 265 16 Operational Risk Management 267 16.1 Definition of Operational Risk 268 16.2 Scope of Operational Risk 269 16.3 Benefits of Operational Risk 270 16.4 Implementation of Operational Risk 270 16.5 Strategy 270 16.5.1 Definition of Strategy Risk 270 16.5.2 Objectives 271 16.5.3 Business Plan 272 16.5.4 New Business Development 272 16.5.5 Resources 273 16.5.6 Stakeholder Interests 273 16.5.7 Corporate Experience 274 16.5.8 Reputation 274 16.6 People 275 16.6.1 Definition of People Risk 275 16.6.2 Types of People Risk 276 16.6.3 Human Resource Management Practices 276 16.6.4 Ability to Pay Salaries 277 16.6.5 Regulatory and Statutory Requirements 277 16.6.6 Staff Constraints 280 16.6.7 Staff Dishonesty 287 16.6.8 Risk Management 287 16.6.9 Health and Safety 292 16.7 Processes and Systems 292 16.7.1 Definition of Processes and Systems Risk 293 16.7.2 Controls 293 16.7.3 Regulatory and Statutory Requirements 294 16.7.4 Continuity 294 16.7.5 Indicators of Loss 295 16.7.6 Transactions 295 16.7.7 Computer/IT Systems 297 16.7.8 Knowledge Management 301 16.7.9 Project Management 302 16.8 External Events 303 16.8.1 Change Management 303 16.8.2 Business Continuity 304 16.9 Outsourcing 305 16.10 Measurement 307 16.11 Mitigation 307 16.12 Summary 307 16.13 References 308 17 Technological Risk Management 309 17.1 Definition of Technology Risk 310 17.2 Scope of Technology Risk 310 17.3 Benefits of Technology Risk Management 311 17.4 Implementation of Technology Risk Management 311 17.5 Primary Technology Types 312 17.5.1 Information Technology 312 17.5.2 Communications Technology 315 17.5.3 Control Technology 319 17.6 Responding to Technology Risk 324 17.6.1 IT Governance 324 17.6.2 Investment 326 17.6.3 Projects 329 17.7 Summary 330 17.8 References 331 18 Project Risk Management 333 18.1 Definition of Project Risk 334 18.2 Definition of Project Risk Management 334 18.3 Sources of Project Risk 335 18.4 Benefits of Project Risk Management 335 18.5 Embedding Project Risk Management 336 18.5.1 Common Challenges in Implementing Project Risk Management 336 18.5.2 Lack of Clearly Defined and Disseminated Risk Management Objectives 337 18.5.3 Lack of Senior Executive and Project Director Commitment and Support 337 18.5.4 Lack of a Risk Maturity Model 337 18.5.5 Lack of a Change Process to Implement the Discipline 338 18.5.6 No Common Risk Language (Terms and Definitions) 338 18.5.7 Lack of Articulation of the Project Sponsor’s Risk Appetite 338 18.5.8 No Definition of Roles and Responsibilities 339 18.5.9 Lack of Risk Management Awareness Training to Build Core Competencies 339 18.5.10 Lack of Integration of Risk Management with Other Project Disciplines 340 18.5.11 Reticence of Project Personnel to Spend Time on Risk Management 340 18.5.12 Risk Owners not Automatically Taking Responsibility for Assigned Risks 341 18.5.13 No Clear Demonstration of How Risk Management Adds Value and Contributes to Project Performance 341 18.5.14 Overcomplicated Implementation from an Unclear Risk Policy, Strategy, Framework, Plan and Procedure 341 18.5.15 Lack of Alignment between the Business Strategy, Business Model and the Risk Management Objectives 341 18.5.16 Lack of the Integration of Risk Management Activities into the Day-to-Day Activities of Project Managers 342 18.6 Project Risk Management Process 342 18.6.1 Establish the Context 342 18.6.2 Risk Identification 344 18.6.3 Risk Analysis 344 18.6.4 Risk Evaluation 345 18.6.5 Risk Treatment 345 18.6.6 Risk Monitoring and Review 345 18.6.7 Communication and Consultation 346 18.7 Responsibility for Project Risk Management 346 18.8 Project Director’s Role 347 18.9 Project Team 347 18.9.1 Lack of Team Structure 347 18.9.2 Lack of Definition of Roles 348 18.9.3 Lack of Responsibility Assignment Matrix 348 18.9.4 Poor Leadership 348 18.9.5 Poor Team Communication 348 18.10 Optimism Bias 349 18.10.1 The Investment Decision 349 18.10.2 Optimism Bias 350 18.10.3 Monitoring 350 18.10.4 Using Numerical Indicators in Project Decision Making 350 18.10.5 Causes of Optimism Bias 351 18.10.6 The Distinction between Risk Events and Optimism Bias 351 18.11 Software Tools Used to Support Project Risk Management 351 18.12 Techniques Used to Support Project Risk Management 352 18.13 Summary 352 18.14 References 354 19 Business Ethics Management 355 19.1 Definition of Business Ethics Risk 355 19.2 Scope of Business Ethics Risk 356 19.3 Benefits of Ethics Risk Management 357 19.4 How Unethical Behaviour can Arise 357 19.5 Recognition of the Need for Business Ethics 358 19.5.1 US Department of Commerce 358 19.5.2 The G8 Summit in Italy Pushes for a Return to “Ethics” 359 19.5.3 OECD and Its Approach to Business Ethics 359 19.5.4 UK Financial Services Authority 360 19.5.5 US Department of Justice 360 19.6 Factors that Affect Business Ethics 361 19.7 Risk Events 361 19.8 Implementation of Ethical Risk Management 365 19.8.1 Areas of Focus 365 19.8.2 Levels of Application 366 19.8.3 The System 368 19.9 Summary 374 19.10 References 374 20 Health and Safety Management 375 20.1 Definition of Health and Safety Risk 375 20.2 Scope of Health and Safety Risk 376 20.3 Benefits of Health and Safety Risk Management 376 20.3.1 Business Benefits 377 20.3.2 The Enterprise Context: AstraZeneca 378 20.4 The UK Health and Safety Executive 378 20.4.1 The UK Perspective: Health and Safety Record 379 20.5 The European Agency for Safety and Health at Work 379 20.5.1 Main Challenges Concerning Health and Safety at Work 380 20.6 Implementation of Health and Safety Risk Management 380 20.6.1 Management Arrangements 381 20.6.2 Risk Controls 381 20.6.3 Workplace Precautions 381 20.6.4 System Implementation 382 20.7 Workplace Precautions 382 20.8 Contribution of Human Error to Major Disasters 382 20.8.1 Tenerife, 27 March 1977 382 20.8.2 Chernobyl, 26 April 1986 384 20.8.3 Kegworth, 8 January 1989 385 20.8.4 Herald of Free Enterprise, 6 March 1987 386 20.8.5 Piper Alpha, 6 July 1988 387 20.8.6 Ladbroke Grove, 5 October 1999 387 20.9 Improving Human Reliability in the Workplace 388 20.10 Risk Management Best Practice 389 20.10.1 Crisis Management Plan 389 20.11 Summary 390 20.12 References 390 Part Iv External Influences – Macro Factors 391 21 Economic Risk 393 21.1 Definition of Economic Risk 393 21.2 Scope of Economic Risk 393 21.3 Benefits of Economic Risk Management 394 21.4 Implementation of Economic Risk Management 394 21.5 Microeconomics and Macroeconomics 394 21.6 Macroeconomics 395 21.6.1 Gross Domestic Product 395 21.7 Government Policy 397 21.7.1 Fiscal Policy 397 21.7.2 Monetary Policy 397 21.7.3 Competing Theories 398 21.8 Aggregate Demand 398 21.8.1 Using Aggregate Demand Curves 399 21.8.2 Determinants of Consumer Spending 399 21.8.3 Determinants of Investment Expenditure 400 21.8.4 Determinants of Government Spending 400 21.8.5 Determinants of Net Expenditure on Exports and Imports 401 21.9 Aggregate Supply 401 21.10 Employment Levels 403 21.11 Inflation 403 21.12 Interest Rate Risk 404 21.13 House Prices 405 21.14 International Trade and Protection 405 21.14.1 Trade 405 21.14.2 Methods of Protectionism 406 21.14.3 Trade Policy 406 21.14.4 Balance of Trade 406 21.15 Currency Risk 407 21.15.1 Risk Mitigation by Hedging 407 21.16 Summary 412 21.17 References 412 22 Environmental Risk 413 22.1 Definition of Environmental Risk 413 22.2 Scope of Environmental Risk 415 22.3 Benefits of Environmental Risk Management 415 22.4 Implementation of Environmental Risk Management 415 22.5 Energy Sources 416 22.5.1 Renewable Energy 417 22.6 Use of Resources 419 22.7 Pollution 420 22.8 Global Warming 420 22.9 Response to Global Warming 422 22.9.1 Earth Summit 422 22.9.2 The Kyoto Protocol 422 22.9.3 Pollution Control Targets 422 22.9.4 Sufficiency of Emission Cuts 423 22.9.5 US Climate Pact 423 22.9.6 The Copenhagen Accord 424 22.9.7 European Union 425 22.9.8 Cancún Agreements 425 22.9.9 Domestic Government Response to Climate Change 426 22.9.10 Levy 427 22.9.11 Emissions Trading 428 22.9.12 Impact on Business 428 22.10 Stimulation to Environmental Considerations 429 22.10.1 FTSE4Good Index 429 22.10.2 Carbon Trust 429 22.10.3 Public Pressure 430 22.11 Environmental Sustainability 431 22.12 Summary 432 22.13 References 433 23 Legal Risk 435 23.1 Definition of Legal Risk 435 23.2 Scope of Legal Risk 435 23.3 Benefits of Legal Risk Management 436 23.4 Implementation of Legal Risk Management 436 23.5 Business Law 437 23.6 Companies 438 23.6.1 The Company Name 438 23.6.2 The Memorandum of Association 438 23.6.3 Articles of Association 439 23.6.4 Financing the Company 439 23.6.5 The Issue of Shares and Debentures 440 23.6.6 The Official Listing of Securities 440 23.6.7 The Remedy of Rescission 440 23.6.8 Protection of Minority Interests 440 23.6.9 Duties of Directors 441 23.7 Intellectual Property 441 23.7.1 Patents 441 23.7.2 Copyright 445 23.7.3 Designs 446 23.8 Employment Law 447 23.9 Contracts 447 23.9.1 Essentials of a Valid Contract 447 23.9.2 Types of Contract 447 23.10 Criminal Liability in Business 448 23.10.1 Misdescriptions of Goods and Services 448 23.10.2 Misleading Price Indications 449 23.10.3 Product Safety 450 23.11 Computer Misuse 451 23.11.1 Unauthorised Access to Computer Material 451 23.11.2 Unauthorised Access with Intent to Commit or Facilitate Further Offences 451 23.11.3 Unauthorised Modification of Computer Material 451 23.12 Summary 452 24 Political Risk 453 24.1 Definition of Political Risk 454 24.2 Scope of Political Risk 454 24.2.1 Macropolitical Risks 454 24.2.2 Micropolitical Risks 455 24.3 Benefits of Political Risk Management 455 24.4 Implementation of Political Risk Management 455 24.5 Zonis and Wilkin Political Risk Framework 457 24.6 Contracts 459 24.7 Transition Economies of Europe 459 24.8 UK Government Fiscal Policy 460 24.9 Pressure Groups 461 24.10 Terrorism and Blackmail 461 24.11 Responding to Political Risk 462 24.11.1 Assessing Political Risk Factors 463 24.11.2 Prioritising Political Risk Factors 464 24.11.3 Improving Relative Bargaining Power 464 24.12 Summary 464 24.13 References 465 25 Market Risk 467 25.1 Definition of Market Risk 467 25.2 Scope of Market Risk 468 25.2.1 Levels of Uncertainty in the Marketing Environment 469 25.3 Benefits of Market Risk Management 470 25.4 Implementation of Market Risk Management 470 25.5 Market Structure 470 25.5.1 The Number of Firms in an Industry 471 25.5.2 Barriers to Entry 471 25.5.3 Product Homogeneity, Product Diversity and Branding 473 25.5.4 Knowledge 473 25.5.5 Interrelationships within Markets 474 25.6 Product Life Cycle Stage 475 25.6.1 Sales Growth 476 25.7 Alternative Strategic Directions 476 25.7.1 Market Penetration 477 25.7.2 Product Development 477 25.7.3 Market Development 479 25.7.4 Diversification 481 25.8 Acquisition 482 25.9 Competition 483 25.9.1 Price Stability 483 25.9.2 Non-Price Competition 484 25.9.3 Branding 485 25.9.4 Market Strategies 486 25.10 Price Elasticity/Sensitivity 489 25.10.1 Elasticity 489 25.10.2 Price Elasticity 489 25.11 Distribution Strength 490 25.12 Market Risk Measurement: Value at Risk 490 25.12.1 Definition of Value at Risk 490 25.12.2 Value at Risk 490 25.12.3 VaR Model Assumptions 491 25.12.4 Use of VaR to Limit Risk 493 25.12.5 Calculating Value at Risk 494 25.13 Risk Response Planning 496 25.14 Summary 496 25.15 References 497 26 Social Risk 499 26.1 Definition of Social Risk 499 26.2 Scope of Social Risk 500 26.3 Benefits of Social Risk Management 500 26.4 Implementation of Social Risk Management 501 26.5 Education 501 26.6 Population Movements: Demographic Changes 502 26.6.1 The Changing Market 503 26.7 Socio-Cultural Patterns and Trends 504 26.8 Crime 504 26.8.1 Key Facts 504 26.9 Lifestyles and Social Attitudes 505 26.9.1 More Home Improvements 505 26.9.2 Motherhood, Marriage and Family Formation 505 26.9.3 Health 506 26.9.4 Less Healthy Diets 507 26.9.5 Smoking and Drinking 508 26.9.6 Long Working Hours 509 26.9.7 Stress Levels 509 26.9.8 Recreation and Tourism 510 26.10 Summary 510 26.11 References 511 Part V The Appointment 513 27 Introduction 515 27.1 Change Process From the Client Perspective 515 27.1.1 Planning 515 27.1.2 Timely Information 516 27.1.3 Risk Management Resources 516 27.2 Selection of Consultants 517 27.2.1 Objectives 517 27.2.2 The Brief 517 27.2.3 Describing Activity Interfaces 517 27.2.4 Appointment Process Management 518 27.2.5 The Long-Listing Process 518 27.2.6 Short-List Selection Criteria 519 27.2.7 Request for a Short-Listing Interview 519 27.2.8 Compilation of Short List 519 27.2.9 Prepare an Exclusion Notification 520 27.2.10 Prepare Tender Documents 520 27.2.11 Agreement to be Issued with the Tender Invitation 521 27.2.12 Tender Process 521 27.2.13 Award 521 27.2.14 Notification to Unsuccessful Tenderers 522 27.3 Summary 522 27.4 Reference 522 28 Interview with the Client 523 28.1 First Impressions/Contact 523 28.2 Client Focus 524 28.3 Unique Selling Point 524 28.4 Past Experiences 526 28.5 Client Interview 527 28.5.1 Scene/Overview 527 28.5.2 Situation/Context 527 28.5.3 Scheme/Plan of Action 527 28.5.4 Solution Implementation 528 28.5.5 Success, Measurement of 528 28.5.6 Secure/Continue 528 28.5.7 Stop/Close 528 28.6 Assignment Methodology 528 28.7 Change Management 529 28.8 Sustainable Change 529 28.9 Summary 530 28.10 References 531 29 Proposal 533 29.1 Introduction 533 29.2 Proposal Preparation 533 29.2.1 Planning 533 29.2.2 Preliminary Review 534 29.3 Proposal Writing 534 29.3.1 Task Management 534 29.3.2 Copying Text 534 29.3.3 Master Copy 534 29.3.4 Peer Review 534 29.4 Approach 535 29.5 Proposal 535 29.5.1 Identify the Parties – the Who 535 29.5.2 Identify the Location – the Where 537 29.5.3 Understand the Project Background – the What 537 29.5.4 Define the Scope – the Which 537 29.5.5 Clarify the Objectives – the Why 537 29.5.6 Determine the Approach – the How 538 29.5.7 Determine the Timing – the When 538 29.6 Client Responsibilities 538 29.7 Remuneration 539 29.8 Summary 539 29.9 References 539 30 Implementation 541 30.1 Written Statement of Project Implementation 541 30.2 Management 541 30.2.1 Objectives 541 30.2.2 Planning the Project 542 30.2.3 Consultant Team Composition 543 30.2.4 Interface with Stakeholders 543 30.2.5 Data Gathering 543 30.2.6 Budget 544 30.2.7 Assessment of Risk 544 30.2.8 Deliverables 544 30.2.9 Presentation of the Findings 545 30.2.10 Key Factors for Successful Implementation 545 30.3 Customer Delight 548 30.4 Summary 548 30.5 References 548 Appendix 1: Successful IT: Modernising Government in Action 549 Appendix 2: Sources of Risk 553 Appendix 3: DEFRA Risk Management Strategy 557 Appendix 4: Risk: Improving Government’s Capability to Handle Risk and Uncertainty 561 Appendix 5: Financial Ratios 567 Appendix 6: Risk Maturity Models 573 Appendix 7: SWOT Analysis 579 Appendix 8: PEST Analysis 583 Appendix 9: VRIO Analysis 587 Appendix 10: Value Chain Analysis 589 Appendix 11: Resource Audit 591 Appendix 12: Change Management 595 Appendix 13: Industry Breakpoints 599 Appendix 14: Probability 601 Appendix 15: Value at Risk 611 Appendix 16: Optimism Bias 613 Index 621

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Book SynopsisManaging Uncertainty, Mitigating Risk proposes that financial risk management broaden its approach, maintaining quantification where possible, but incorporating uncertainty. The author shows that by using broad quantification techniques, and using reason as the guiding principle, practitioners can see a more holistic and complete picture. Trade Review'For nearly a century, Frank Knight's distinction between risk and uncertainty has been much admired but rarely put to practical use. Finally, Firoozye and Ariff have done market practitioners a great service by distilling Knight's insight into the novel concept of UVaR uncertain value-at-risk - and applying it to an insightful analysis of the Euro zone crisis. A seminal piece of work and a welcome addition to a risk manager's toolkit.' -Cheng Chih SUNG, Co-founder and CEO, Avanda Investment Management; former CRO, Government of Singapore Investment Corporation 'Over the last few years risk management has become increasingly focused on uncertainty. Firoozye and Ariff attempt to put real theory to what risk managers now do in practice. We know that planning for uncertainties is useful. I expect that as we develop these theories and the tools that flow from them we will generate important insights into resiliency and risk decisions. The example of the Eurozone is a particularly salient starting point.' -Lewis O'Donald, Global Chief Risk Officer, Nomura Holdings Inc. 'Lawyers have long used fallback clauses in contracts to prescribe the parties' behavior in the face of a largely unanticipated (but entirely foreseeable) course of events. As shown in Firoozye and Ariff's insightful new book, modern risk managers face an increasingly similar task; to identify, to quantify (however approximately), and wherever possible to mitigate foreseeable (but unpredictable) outcomes.' -Lee C. Buchheit, Partner, Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP, and Chief Counsel for the Hellenic Republic's 2012 debt restructuring 'Working as a lawyer with Nick Firoozye, he challenges you to think differently and then really listens to what you say. He's one of the few thinkers who get to grips with how legal uncertainty and contractual ambiguity from the Eurozone crisis to Russian sanctions and beyond inform our models of financial risk.' -Bruce Railton, Former Head of Global Markets Legal Team, NomuraTable of Contents1. Definitions, Applications, Methods and Tools 2. The Mathematics of Uncertainty 3. The New Framework and Approach 4. Case studies 5. Conclusions

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Book SynopsisPreface; Manolis Kavussanos and Ilias Visvikis.- 1. Shipping Markets and their Economic Drivers; Jan-Henrik Huebner.- 2. Asset Risk Assessment, Analysis and Forecasting in Asset Backed Finance; Henriette Brent Petersen.- 3. Overview of Ship Finance; Fotis Giannakoulis.- 4. Shipbuilding Finance; Charles Cushing.- 5. Debt Financing in Shipping; George Paleokrassas.- 6. Public Debt Markets for Shipping; Basil Karatzas.- 7. Public and Private Equity Markets; Jeffrey Pribor and Cecilie Lind.- 8. Structured Finance in Shipping; Ioannis Alexopoulos, Director and Nikos Stratis.- 9. Key Clauses of a Shipping Loan Agreement; Kyriakos Spoullos.- 10. Legal Aspects of Ship Mortgages; Simon Norton and Claudio Chistè.- 11. Reasons and Mechanics of Handling Defaulted Shipping Loans and Methods of Recovery; Dimitris Anagnostopoulos and Philippos Tsamanis.- 12. Marine Insurance; Marc Huybrechts and Theodora Nikaki.- 13. Maritime Investment Appraisal and Budgeting; Wolfgang Drobetz, Stefan AlbertijnTable of ContentsPreface by Editors Manolis Kavussanos, Professor, Director MSc in International Shipping, Finance and Management, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece Ilias Visvikis, Professor, Director Executive Education and Professional Development, World Maritime University, Sweden Chapter 1: Shipping Markets and their Economic Drivers Jan-Henrik Huebner, Head of Shipping Advisory, DNV GL, Germany Chapter 2: Asset Risk Assessment, Analysis and Forecasting in Asset Backed Finance Henriette Brent Petersen, Head of Shipping & Offshore Research, DVB Bank SE, The Netherlands Chapter 3: Overview of Ship Finance Fotis Giannakoulis, Research Vice President, Morgan Stanley, USA Chapter 4: Shipbuilding Finance Charles Cushing, C.R. Cushing & Co. Inc., USA Chapter 5: Debt Financing in Shipping George Paleokrassas, Partner, Watson, Farley & Williams, Greece Chapter 6: Public Debt Markets for Shipping Basil Karatzas, Founder & CEO, Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co., USA Chapter 7: Public and Private Equity Markets Jeffrey Pribor, Global Head, Maritime Investment Banking, Jefferies LLC, USACecilie Lind, Associate Investment Banking, Jefferies LLC, USA Chapter 8: Structured Finance in Shipping Ioannis Alexopoulos, Director Maritime Finance, Eurofin Group, Greece Nikos Stratis, Managing Director, Augustea Group, UK Chapter 9: Key Clauses of a Shipping Loan Agreement Kyriakos Spoullos, Solicitor, Norton Rose Fulbright, Greece Chapter 10: Legal Aspects of Ship Mortgages Simon Norton, Lecturer, Cardiff Business School, UK Claudio Chistè, Investec Bank Plc., UK Chapter 11: Reasons and Mechanics of Handling Defaulted Shipping Loans and Methods of Recovery Dimitris Anagnostopoulos, Board Member & Director, Aegean Baltic Bank, Greece Philippos Tsamanis, VP - Head of Shipping, Aegean Baltic Bank, Greece Chapter 12: Marine Insurance Marc Huybrechts, Professor, University of Antwerp, Belgium Theodora Nikaki, Associate Professor, Swansea University, UK Chapter 13: Maritime Investment Appraisal and Budgeting Wolfgang Drobetz, Professor, University of Hamburg, Germany Stefan Albertijn, CEO, HAMANT Beratungs-und Investitions GmbH, Germany Max Johns, Managing Director, German Shipowners’ Association, Germany Chapter 14: Financial Analysis and Modelling of Ship Investments Lars Patterson, Shipping Investment Analyst, Pacomarine Limited, UK Chapter 15: Maritime Business Risk Management Manolis Kavussanos, Professor, Director MSc in International Shipping, Finance and Management, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece Ilias Visvikis, Professor, Director Executive Education and Professional Development, World Maritime University, Sweden Chapter 16: Mergers and Acquisitions in Shipping George Alexandridis, Associate Professor, Director of Shipping Programmes, ICMA Centre, Henley Business School, University of Reading, UK Manish Singh, Group Commercial Director, V.Group Limited, UK

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Book SynopsisThis book presents research from leading researchers in the European banking field to explore three key areas of banking.Table of ContentsList Of FiguresList Of TablesPrefaceIntroduction1. Credit Quality, Bank Provisioning And Systematic Risk In Banking Business: Josanco Floreani, Maurizio Polato, Andrea Paltrinieri And Flavio Pichler1.1. Introduction1.2. Literature Review1.3. Determinants Of Beta And Hypothesis Development1.4. Data And Methodology1.5. Results1.6. Discussion And Implications1.7. Conclusions2. The Estimation Of Banks '' '' Cost Of Capital Through The Capital At Risk Model: An Empirical Investigation Across European Banks: Federico Beltrame, Daniele Previtali And Luca Grassetti2.1. Introduction2.2. The Application Of The Carm To The Banking Industry2.3. Methodology And Sample2.4. Results2.5. Conclusions3. Moving Towards A Pan European Deposit Guarantee Scheme. How Bank Riskiness Is Relevant In The Scheme?: Giusy Chesini And Elisa Giaretta 3.1. Introduction3.2. Literature Review On Deposit Insurance And Bank Risk 3.3. The Evolution Of The Regulation Of Deposit Guarantee Schemes In Europe3.4. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) In The USA3.5. Data And Statistics3.6. Conclusions4. Back To The Future: Prospective Bank Risk Management In A Financial Analysis Perspective: Rosa Cocozza4.1. Introduction4.2. The Cultural Background 4.3. The Conceptual Framework: EBA Focus And KRI Analysis 4.4. The Market Appraisal 4.5. Conclusions5. Financial Innovation In Banking: Francesca Arnaboldi And Bruno Rossignoli5.1. Introduction5.2. Literature Review5.3. Data And Methods5.4. Research Design5.5. Results5.6. Additional Tests5.7. Conclusions6. Risk And Efficiency In European Banking - Does Corporate Governance Matter?: Magnus Willeson6.1. Introduction6.2. Literature Review6.3. Methodological Approach6.4. Results6.5. Conclusions7. Towards A Macroprudential Policy In The EU: Elisabetta Gualandri And Mario Noera7.1. Introduction7.2. Macroprudential Policy At A Glance7.3. Targets Of MAP7.4. The MAP Toolkit7.5. MAP In The EU7.6. Conclusions8. Italian Banks Facing Basel 3 Higher Capital Requirements: Which Strategies Are Actually Feasible?: Franco Tutino, Giorgio Carlo Brugnoni And Maria Giovanna Siena8.1. Introduction8.2. Literature Review8.3. Sample And Data8.4. Methodology8.5. Analysis Of The Possible Strategic Solutions8.6. Considerations On The Actual Intervention Margins 8.7. Conclusions

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Book SynopsisIntroductionPART I: THE INSTITUTIONAL AND LEGAL FRAMEWORK The Macroeconomic Framework for Managing Public Finances in a Global EnvironmentFiscal Rules and Public Financial ManagementThe Legal Framework for Public Finances and Budget SystemsPolitical Economy Aspects of Managing Public FinancesRole, Responsibilities and Structure of Central Finance AgenciesRole of the Legislature in Budget ProcessesStrengthening Performance in Public Financial ManagementPART II: ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES The Coverage and Classification of the BudgetPolicy Formulation and the Budget ProcessMedium-term Fiscal and Expenditure FrameworksManaging for Results and Performance Budgeting Fiscal Federalism and Intergovernmental Financial RelationsPART III: MANAGING BUDGET EXECUTIONThe Budget Execution Cycle Public ProcurementManaging Government PayrollThe Treasury Function and Treasury Single AccountsInternal Control and Internal AuditTrade ReviewThe Handbook is a welcome addition to the literature on public finance, not least because it draws on multiple disciplines in the social sciences to provide a rigorous and up-to-date analysis of all facets of this important subject. As such it will surely prove to be an invaluable resource for both academics and practitioners of public finance.'EMMANUEL TUMUSIIME-MUTEBILE, Governor of the Bank of Uganda 'This Handbook brings together an extraordinary array of public financial management experts and their collective experience to provide a comprehensive repository of cutting-edge knowledge. It is a must read for students and practitioners especially after the global financial and Eurozone crises have rudely awakened the world to the importance of the linkages between public financial and macro-fiscal management and their influence on constructing rules and institutions that can be implemented in specific political economy contexts.'SANJAY PRADHAN, Vice President, World Bank InstituteThis extremely comprehensive and well-researched volume covers topics of tremendously broad and practical interest, written by many of the world's leading experts on these subjects. I know of no other collection that comes anywhere close to addressing the whole of international financial management, from initial budget planning through adoption, execution, and evaluation. This book represents an invaluable contribution to the field, and will benefit students and government officials alike.PHILIP JOYCE, University of Maryland School of Public Policy and Editor, Public Budgeting & Finance The field of Public Financial Management has grown in sophistication and complexity over recent decades. This volume brings some of the most important topics together in thought-provoking ways. It blends technical, political and managerial perspectives in a manner that fosters honest discussion about the subject. The message it sends is clear. There is a lot to discuss, and there are many perspectives.MATT ANDREWS, Harvard Kennedy School'By providing a fresh perspective not only on the bread and butter of public financial management, but also on innovative themes, the Handbook is a valuable and comprehensive guide to the field, and sure to become a first reference for the practitioner and student.'NEIL COLE, Collaborative African Budget Reform Initiative, CABRI'This is a virtual encyclopedia of public financial management, covering all aspects of the budget cycle. I am confident the volume will become a standard reference in this critically important field.'JON BLONDAL, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD'Improving our understanding of public financial management is crucial as nations seek to correct fiscal imbalances stemming from the global economic and financial crisis. An important contribution of this Handbook is in emphasizing the importance of collaborative approaches to reform, bringing together knowledge from economics, public finance, political science, law, organizational development, computer science and human resource management.'CLAY WESTCOTT, Senior Editor, International Public Management Review'This is an important Handbook that provides a very practical 'how to' guide to all aspects of public financial management that are now taken to constitute best practice. It should be of interest to practitioners in governments and policy-related institutes around the world. The volume also contains new perspectives on the political economy of institutional change. Some of the chapters would thus be of interest to researchers working in the relatively new area of institutional change and governance, or why certain prescriptions or best practices so often fail, despite the high quality advice that is now available.'EHTISHAM AHMAD, London School of Economics and Political Science and University of Bonn 'Public financial management reform takes time, is complex and has to consider the local environment, including key political economy factors. This volume, written and edited by some of the world's leading experts on the subject, will be indispensible for all those involved with such challenges.'ANDY WYNNE, Editor, International Journal of Governmental Financial Management Table of ContentsIntroductionPART I: THE INSTITUTIONAL AND LEGAL FRAMEWORK The Macroeconomic Framework for Managing Public Finances in a Global EnvironmentFiscal Rules and Public Financial ManagementThe Legal Framework for Public Finances and Budget SystemsPolitical Economy Aspects of Managing Public FinancesRole, Responsibilities and Structure of Central Finance AgenciesRole of the Legislature in Budget ProcessesStrengthening Performance in Public Financial ManagementPART II: ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES The Coverage and Classification of the BudgetPolicy Formulation and the Budget ProcessMedium-term Fiscal and Expenditure FrameworksManaging for Results and Performance Budgeting Fiscal Federalism and Intergovernmental Financial RelationsPART III: MANAGING BUDGET EXECUTIONThe Budget Execution Cycle Public ProcurementManaging Government PayrollThe Treasury Function and Treasury Single AccountsInternal Control and Internal Audit Managing Extra-budgetary FundsPART IV: MANAGING GOVERNMENT REVENUESTax Design from a Fiscal Management PerspectiveRevenue Forecasting Efficient Revenue Administration Customs Administration User Charges and EarmarkingManaging Natural Resource Revenues Managing External Aid PART V: LIABILITY AND ASSET MANAGEMENTGovernment Balance SheetsPublic Investment Management and PPPsManaging Fiscal RisksSovereign Wealth FundsLong-term Obligations and Generational AccountingCash Management and Debt ManagementManaging State-owned Enterprises PART VII: ACCOUNTING, REPORTING AND OVERSIGHT OF PUBLIC FINANCESStrengthening Fiscal Transparency Government Accounting Standards and Policies Government Financial Reporting Standards and Practices Financial Management Information Systems External Audit Role of Independent Fiscal AgenciesAbout the Editors and ContributorsGlossary ReferencesIndex

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Book SynopsisRisk management is vital to organisational success, from government down to small businesses, and the discipline has developed rapidly over the last decade. Learning lessons from the good and bad practice of others is a key feature of this book, which includes multiple illustrative examples of risk management practice, in addition to detailed case studies.Combining both theory and practice, the early chapters compare the ISO 31000 and COSO Enterprise Risk Management frameworks and the relevant regulatory regimes in both Europe and the United States. The core of the book is three highly detailed case studies of risk management in the manufacturing (Akzo Nobel), retail (Tesco), and public sectors (Birmingham City Council). Using the lessons learned from the case studies, together with material from elsewhere, the author then outlines four lessons for risk managers that can be used in any organisation seeking to develop a truly enterprise-wide risk management system.This Trade Review"The case studies set out in this book, based on sound research and set firmly within the context of the most up-to-date governance and standards frameworks, make a real contribution to the understanding of managing risk within organisations. The book will be an excellent resource for students and practitioners of risk management." Stephen Sidebottom, Chair, The Institute of Risk Management"Providing analysis of the evolution of various risk types via detailed case studies and snapshots of risk events across large and small organisations, this unique and valuable book delivers profound insights for risk management scholars and practitioners." Marco Maffei, University of Naples Federico II, Italy"Risk Management in Organisations remains an invaluable resource and this new edition will be of interest to risk management practitioners, students and academics internationally." Chris Peace, Te Wāhanga□Tātai Hauora Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand"Combining theory and regulation, this new edition is an indispensable guide to risk management. With new insights around technological development and COVID-19, the book is required reading for risk practitioners globally." Marie Gemma Dequae, Risk Management PractitionerTable of Contents1 Introduction to This Book; 2 Risk and Governance; 3 International Standards for Risk and Enterprise Management; 4 Risk Management in Theory and Practice; 5 Managing Technology Risk; 6 Enterprise Risk Management in Manufacturing: The Case of Akzo Nobel (2000–2020); 7 Risk Management in Retail: Tesco PLC (2004–2019); 8 Risk Management in the Public Sector: Birmingham City Council (2002–2020); 9 Best Practice Risk Management: Key Lessons; 10 A Risk Management Perspective on COVID-19

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Book SynopsisAware that a single crisis event can devastate their business, managers must be prepared for the worst from an expansive array of threats. The Routledge Companion to Risk, Crisis and Security in Business comprises a professional and scholarly collection of work in this critical field. Risks come in many varieties, and there is a growing concern for organizations to respond to the challenge. Businesses can be severely impacted by natural and man-made disasters including: floods, earthquakes, tsunami, environmental threats, terrorism, supply chain risks, pandemics, and white-collar crime. An organization's resilience is dependent not only on their own system security and infrastructure, but also on the wider infrastructure providing health and safety, utilities, transportation, and communication.Developments in risk security and management knowledge offer a path towards resilience and recovery through effective leadership in crisis situations. The growingTrade Review'The Editor, Professor Kurt Engemann, along with the effort of contributing authors, has created an important resource for scientists, practitioners and students by producing The Routledge Companion to Risk, Crisis and Security in Business. This quality book provides a thorough exploration of numerous significant issues and methods, not commonly covered in textbooks in this vital field.' - Terje Aven, PhD, Professor of Risk Analysis and Risk Management, University of Stavanger, Norway.'This book is a comprehensive and authoritative source of the state-of-the-art in risk, crisis and security, from both a conceptual and a practical perspective. It is a must-read for business leaders, policy analysts, technicians and academics who seek innovative approaches and solutions for this exponentially growing complex field.' - Giampiero E.G. Beroggi, PhD, Professor and Director Center for Business Innovation, University of Applied Sciences in Business Administration Zurich, Switzerland.Table of ContentsPART I, Developing, Implementing and Maintaining Risk Strategies1. Developments in risk security, Kurt J. Engemann, 2. The evolution of risk management thinking in organizations, Phil Kelly, 3. Intuition and decision making for crisis situations, Holmes E. Miller, 4. Business continuity management organizations: the models of implementation, Wei Ning Zechariah Wong and Jianping Shi, 5. Knowledge in high reliability organizations: a review of interrelated perspectives, Krista N. EngemannPART II, Natural and Man-Made Disasters6. A retrospective account of the impacts of the 1960 Valdivia, Chile, earthquake and tsunami and the lack of business continuity planning, Benigno E. Aguirre, 7. What lurks beneath: deep supply chain risks, Yossi Sheffi, 8. Crisis leadership: a leader’s new normal, Robert J. Darling and Stephen Young, 9. Internal investigations of white-collar crime, Petter Gottschalk, 10. Collapse or recovery after white-collar crime, Petter Gottschalk, PART III, Infrastructure Risks11. Business resiliency considerations in the site selection and construction of a new facility, Natalie M. Dengler, 12. Megacities at risk, Cesar Marolla, 13. Self organization and its role in building disaster resilience, Nirmita Mehrotra, 14. Risk-management in the bioeconomy, Jutta Geldermann, 15. SMEs defending their businesses from flood risk: contributing to the theoretical discourse on resilience, Bingurath Ingirige and Gayan WedawattaPART IV, Systems Security for Business Resiliency16. Security awareness in the software arena, Rory V. O’Connor and Ricardo Colomo-Palacios, 17. Information security in an ever-changing threat landscape, Matthew Lagana, 18. Business continuity and e-business: towards an "always-on" e-business, Nijaz Bajgoric, 19. Using location k-anonymity models for protecting location privacy, Eric Di Carlo, Heechang Shin and Haibing LuPART V, Risk in Business Sectors20. Accounting information systems: opportunity and risk, Shoshana Altschuller and Shaya (Isaiah) Altschuller, 21. Transcending beyond finance for managing foreign exchange risk, George A. Zsidisin and Barbara Gaudenzi, 22. Financial risk inherent in oil fracking, Roy Nersesian, 23. Cause-related marketing and disaster management: opportunities from tourism-related initiatives, Giuseppe Aliperti, Francesco Rizzi and Marco Frey, 24. Shared sorrow is half a sorrow: the role of social capital in building resilient supply chains, Mitchell J. van den Adel, Dirk Pieter van Donk and Kirstin Scholten, 25. Risk management and auditing of technology incubators/science parks: innovation enabler to drive capacity of tech ventures, Jarunee Wonglimpiyarat and Mark BillingtonPART VI, Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Modeling26. What’s in a name? Kate Boothroyd, 27. Leading through uncertainty, Cesar Marolla, 28. Safety and economic activity, Eirik B. Abrahamsen, Frank Asche and Roy E. Dahl, 29. The role of decision-making support systems in risk management, Manuel Mora, Gloria Phillips-Wren and Fen Wang, 30. Intelligent rule-based risk modeling for decision making, Ronald R. Yager

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Book Synopsis Tony Blunden is an Executive Director of Chase Cooper Limited, a risk management solutions company that provides solutions for enterprise risk including broad risk management approaches such as Sarbanes-Oxley.  He heads its consultancy division and has worked with over 250 international organisations.  During his over 30 years in risk management he has spoken at over 100 international conferences and contributed to a wide variety of publications, all on risk management. He is an Honorary Professor at Glasgow Caledonian University and a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Secretaries and Administrators, the Governance Institute. John Thirlwell has worked in financial services in the City of London, both an executive and non-executive director on banking and insurance boards for over 30 years.  He is currently non-executive Chair of the Board of a consumer credit company and a board adviser Table of ContentsPart 1: SETTING THE SCENE: what is Risk management? 1. What do we mean by Risk Management? 2. The business Benefits of Risk Management 3. Risk Management and Culture 4. Risk Appetite 5. Implementing a Risk management framework 6. Independent Assurance Part 2 RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLS: what tools do we have to identify, manage and monitor Risk management? 7. Risk management and Risk and Control Assessments 8. Risk management and KRI/KCI 9. Risk management and Events 10. Risk management, Stress testing and Scenarios 11. Risk management and Reporting Part 3: THE PRACTICAL BUSINESS SIDE OF Risk management: what keeps management awake at night? 12. People risk management 13. Reputation risk management 14. Information Security risk management [all data] 15. Cyber risk management [electronic data] 16. Business Survival risk 17. Third party and outsourcing risk management 18. How do you model Risk management? - Questions to ask 19. How do you challenge the model? - Questions to ask

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Book SynopsisAssembling a high profile group of scholars and practitioners, this book investigates the interplay of forecasting; warnings about, and responses to, known and unknown transnational risks. It challenges conventional accounts of ''failures'' of warning and preventive policy in both the academic literature and public debate.Table of ContentsIntroduction: The Challenges of Prevention; C.De Franco & C.O.Meyer PART I: FORECASTING HARM The Coastline of The Future: Some Limits on Forecasting and Prediction; D.Omand Epistemology of Forecasting in International Relations: Knowing the Difference between 'Intelligence Failure' and 'Warning Failure'; J.Goldman Foresec: Lessons Learnt from a Pan-European Security Foresight Project; V.Brummer , C.Burnley, H.Carlsen, A.Duta, B.Giegerich & R.Magoni Modelling Transnational Environmental Risks: Scenarios for Decision Support; F.Wagner Risk, Uncertainty and the Assessment of Organised Crime; T.Van Der Beken PART II: COMMUNICATING AND LEARNING FROM WARNINGS Mediatised Warnings: Late, Wrong, Yet Indispensable? Lessons from Climate Change and Civil War; C.De Franco & C.O.Meyer Do They Listen? Communicating Warnings: An Intelligence Practitioners Perspective; W.Shapcott Responding to early flood warnings in the European Union; D.Demeritt & S.Nobert Dark Secrets: Face-Work, Organizational Culture and Disaster Prevention; M.S.Gerstein & E.H.Schein PART III: RESPONDING TO WARNINGS Transnational Risk Management: A Business Perspective; C.Crossin & J.Smither From the 'Neurotic' to the 'Rationalising' State: Risk and the Limits of Governance; H.Rothstein, O.Borraz & M.Huber Ilos and Silences: The Role of Fragmentation in the Recent Financial Crisis; G.Tett Forecasting, Warning and Preventive Policy: The Case of Finance; T.F.Huertas Prospective Sense-Making: A Realistic Approach to 'Foresight for Prevention' in an Age of Complex Threats; W.H.Fishbein Conclusion: New Perspectives for Theorising and Addressing Transnational Risks; C.O.Meyer & C.De Franco

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Book SynopsisCorporate Governance is a text which considers the problems surrounding governance and proposes solutions to help restore investor confidence in the corporate world.Table of ContentsIntroduction PART I: THE FUNCTION OF CORPORATE GOVERNANCE Governance Defined The Unique Structure of Corporations Accountability and the Need for Corporate Governance Elements of Governance Corporate Accountability The Role of Board Directors and Executive Management The Role of Financial Control, Risk Management and Internal Audit The Role of Legal Counsel External Accountability The Role of Regulators The Role of Rating Agencies The Role of External Auditors Protecting Internal and External Stakeholders Employees and Retirees Shareholders Creditors PART II: CORPORATE GOVERNANCE PROBLEMS: COMMON FAILURES IN THE GOVERNANCE PROCESS Failure of Board Directors and Executive Management Failure of Internal Controls Failure of Corporate Policies Failure of External Controls The Impact of Governance Problems on Corporate Operations Reputational Damage Early Financial Problems Growing Financial Distress Studies in Flawed Governance Governance Problems in Practice PART III: CORPORATE GOVERNANCE REFORMS Strengthening the Governance Process Internal Reforms External Reforms Improving Corporate Ethics Defining and Enforcing Ethical Corporate Behaviour Aligning Internal and External Stakeholder Interests in Practice Summary and Conclusions The Future of Corporate Governance References and Index

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Book SynopsisDr Simon Ashby is Associate Professor of Financial Services at Vlerick Business School, based in Brussels, Belgium. Prior to this he was Associate Professor at Plymouth Business School, UK and worked as a financial regulator and a senior risk manager in a number of top UK financial institutions. He is a Fellow and former Chairman of the Institute of Operational Risk (IOR) and a Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Risk, Banking and Financial Services at the University of Nottingham.The IRM is a world leading professional body for risk management, driving excellence in managing risk to ensure organizations are ready for opportunities and threats of the future.Trade Review"Simon Ashby is very well placed through his long association with the Institute of Operational Risk to write what will prove to be the definitive book on operational risk. He challenges us to expand our understanding of operational risk to encompass 'unpredictable outcomes of the efficiency and effectiveness of operations.' Using a series of compelling case studies, he brings the subject alive. It is sobering to see how many of the selected case studies had underlying cultural drivers. I found the section on risk culture particularly practical in its insights to monitoring and taking action. The approach to operational risk event data establishes the benefits of learning from past events and ensuring recurrence is prevented, which surely is the essence of any robust approach to operational risk." * Alex Hindson, Chief Risk & Sustainability Officer, Argo Group *"This is an excellent book, serving as an effective pragmatic tool for risk practitioners working in all three lines across the world, as well as a good guide for the academics in operational risk." * Dominic Wu, Director, Risk Management BCT Group *"Simon Ashby presents a very well structured, research-based and informative guide to operational risk management. This excellent book covers every key topic, from embedding risk culture to conducting scenario analysis. A remarkably rewarding source for practitioners." * Elena Pykhova, Director and Founder, The OpRisk Company *"It is becoming more and more clear that operational risk models are of limited use, while taking behavioural elements into account in risk culture, governance etc. is of tremendous importance. This book sets absolutely the right focus - and numerous case studies confirm that Simon is not just a seasoned academic, but very familiar with the important details of practical implementation as well. Really worthwhile reading!" * Prof. Dr. Thomas Kaiser, Professor Kaiser Risk Management Consulting & Goethe University *Table of Contents Chapter - 01: Understanding operational risk - Key concepts and management objectives; Chapter - 02: Embedding operational risk management; Chapter - 03: Categorizing operational risks; Chapter - 04: Risk culture; Chapter - 05: Risk appetite; Chapter - 06: Operational risk governance; Chapter - 07: Risk and control self-assessments; Chapter - 08: Operational loss events; Chapter - 09: Operational risk indicators; Chapter - 10: Scenario analysis and stress testing; Chapter - 11: Organizational resilience; Chapter - 12: Regulating operational risk

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Book SynopsisDr Simon Ashby is Associate Professor of Financial Services at Vlerick Business School, based in Brussels, Belgium. Prior to this he was Associate Professor at Plymouth Business School, UK and worked as a financial regulator and a senior risk manager in a number of top UK financial institutions. He is a Fellow and former Chairman of the Institute of Operational Risk (IOR) and a Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Risk, Banking and Financial Services at the University of Nottingham.The IRM is a world leading professional body for risk management, driving excellence in managing risk to ensure organizations are ready for opportunities and threats of the future.Trade Review"Simon Ashby is very well placed through his long association with the Institute of Operational Risk to write what will prove to be the definitive book on operational risk. He challenges us to expand our understanding of operational risk to encompass 'unpredictable outcomes of the efficiency and effectiveness of operations.' Using a series of compelling case studies, he brings the subject alive. It is sobering to see how many of the selected case studies had underlying cultural drivers. I found the section on risk culture particularly practical in its insights to monitoring and taking action. The approach to operational risk event data establishes the benefits of learning from past events and ensuring recurrence is prevented, which surely is the essence of any robust approach to operational risk." * Alex Hindson, Chief Risk & Sustainability Officer, Argo Group *"This is an excellent book, serving as an effective pragmatic tool for risk practitioners working in all three lines across the world, as well as a good guide for the academics in operational risk." * Dominic Wu, Director, Risk Management BCT Group *"Simon Ashby presents a very well structured, research-based and informative guide to operational risk management. This excellent book covers every key topic, from embedding risk culture to conducting scenario analysis. A remarkably rewarding source for practitioners." * Elena Pykhova, Director and Founder, The OpRisk Company *"It is becoming more and more clear that operational risk models are of limited use, while taking behavioural elements into account in risk culture, governance etc. is of tremendous importance. This book sets absolutely the right focus - and numerous case studies confirm that Simon is not just a seasoned academic, but very familiar with the important details of practical implementation as well. Really worthwhile reading!" * Prof. Dr. Thomas Kaiser, Professor Kaiser Risk Management Consulting & Goethe University *Table of Contents Chapter - 01: Understanding operational risk - Key concepts and management objectives; Chapter - 02: Embedding operational risk management; Chapter - 03: Categorizing operational risks; Chapter - 04: Risk culture; Chapter - 05: Risk appetite; Chapter - 06: Operational risk governance; Chapter - 07: Risk and control self-assessments; Chapter - 08: Operational loss events; Chapter - 09: Operational risk indicators; Chapter - 10: Scenario analysis and stress testing; Chapter - 11: Organizational resilience; Chapter - 12: Regulating operational risk

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Book SynopsisInternet Security Alliance provides thought leadership in cybersecurity and works with the US government to advocate for public policy that will advance the interests of cybersecurity.Larry Clinton is President of the Internet Security Alliance. He advises industry and government on cyber policy and regularly appears in the media to provide an expert opinion. He has briefed NATO, the Organization of American States (OAS), G-20 and the US Congress. He has twice been named to the NACD 'Directorship 100' list of the most influential individuals in corporate governance.Trade Review"Cybersecurity is national security. The only way to effectively protect ourselves is through a collective defense model. Cybersecurity for Business describes the roles and responsibilities individuals across an organization must take in this new age to work together to protect their enterprise and, in so doing, contribute to our nation's defense." * GEN (Ret) Keith Alexander, Former head of US Cyber Command Co-CEO, IronNet Cybersecurity, Inc. *"Cybersecurity for Business is a bonfire of wisdom for leaders who desire to be part of the executive decision-making team in their organization. Co-authored by an extraordinary group of global leaders and luminaries with topics as diverse as 'managing' your board of directors, developing key inter-organizational relationships and aligning business goals to cybersecurity, among others, this book will find a home on the desk of leaders and managers across the cybersecurity community." * Mark Weatherford, former Deputy Undersecretary for Cybersecurity at the US Department of Homeland Security. Chief Security Officer at AlertEnterprise *"Cybersecurity for Business takes the complicated and ever-changing world of data security and technology and offers a remarkably cogent collection of guidance from industry experts. The result is a practical and wide-ranging text and a powerful tool for keeping businesses safe." * Preet Bharara, former U.S. Attorney, Distinguished Scholar in Residence at NYU School of Law; CNN Senior Legal Analyst; author of NYT bestselling 'Doing Justice' and host of 'Stay Tuned with Preet' *"Cybersecurity for Business is one of the few books that recognizes that cybersecurity is not just a technology issue - it's a strategy issue and a leadership issue. Here you'll find excellent and timely guidance that will help leaders around the company and the world do their part to succeed in an environment of cyber risk." * Daniel Dobrygowski, Head of Governance and Trust, World Economic Forum *"This ISA book on cybersecurity risk management hits the mark on enabling organizations to contextualize cyber risk to financial, operational and business outcomes. These core principles align to the heightened expectations across the regulatory (SEC), investor, risk management and boardroom communities." * Chris Hetner, Former Senior Cybersecurity Advisor to the SEC Chair and Special Advisor for Cyber Risk to the NACD *"Leadership and management of cyber risk continues to evolve. Beyond just C-Suites and IT departments, this book brings the role of the whole organization - HR, PR, finance, legal compliance, marketing, etc. - into sharp focus. Cybersecurity is a team sport that must address leadership, management and the culture of security throughout the entire business enterprise. Cybersecurity for Business sets the principles and de-facto standard for modern cyber risk management." * Harry D. Raduege, Jr. Lieutenant General, USAF (Ret) Chief Executive Officer, National Cybersecurity Center *"Cybersecurity for Business tracks the principles we recommend our college and universities follow to enhance their own cyber risk resilience. As such, it's an excellent book for graduate and undergraduate courses in cyber, and its use will help create a more coherent, secure and sustainable digital environment." * Henry Stoever, President and CEO, Association of Governing Boards of Universities and Colleges (AGB) *"The aspect of Cybersecurity for Business that compelled me to adopt it as my textbook for Columbia's Enterprise Cyber Threats and Defenses course is the holistic approach taken to the defense of complex networks. As demonstrated by the impact of Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, dis-aligned localized defenses cannot withstand systematic attacks on complex multi-part networks. Even a single point of failure in an otherwise robust entity 'perimeter' renders the entire entity vulnerable. Because there is no security through obscurity, the only sustainable cyber defense is one architected top-down." * Dr. Corey Hirsch, CISO, Teledyne *"Cybersecurity for Business outlines a model any business should consider to align its technical systems with proper management to strengthen its cyber resilience. Besides serving as a guide to better manage cyber attacks, this book provides confirmation of our security program and the approach we've taken. Additionally, it reinforces concepts we routinely share with partners, customers, and other stakeholders across our ecosystems. What I like most is that it offers practical advice with a robust list of references for readers to dive even deeper into the various topics." * Jon Brickey, Senior Vice President Cybersecurity Evangelist, Mastercard *"Despite the deluge of cyber-attack headlines, too often boards of directors remain focused on how they should be preparing for the next inevitable breach, rather than thinking proactively about their cybersecurity oversight responsibilities. Cybersecurity for Business is an invaluable guide for directors and executives at organizations of all sizes to better understand the business, legal and technical dimensions of cybersecurity risk management, and how to optimize corporate governance to meet the challenges posed by multifaceted cyber threats. I consider it required reading for everyone interested in safeguarding their critical systems, supply chains, employees and customers." * Professor Scott J. Shackelford, JD, PhD, Chair, Indiana University Cybersecurity Risk Management Program *"The ISA's Cybersecurity for Business is the first comprehensive, practical, strategic and tactical guide to this rapidly evolving and constantly challenging subject that is both practical and academic. Indeed, it is exactly what I have been looking for as someone who both advises boards and management on strategic cyber risk management and governance and as a cyber-professor teaching a course on 'Cyber Leadership, Risk Oversight and Resilience' at NYU, where it will become my core textbook for future semesters. This is an outstanding contribution because it is written by people with direct experience on the front lines - indeed on the bleeding edge - of this ever-evolving threat and opportunity matrix and incorporates some of the groundbreaking risk governance work that Larry and the Internet Security Alliance have been doing for years with the NACD, the World Economic Forum and a number of leading industry associations around the world. And, finally, it goes beyond other publications by looking at the bigger systemic cyber-picture including the role of culture, economics, governance and how all the strategic and tactical dots interconnect. Kudos to Larry and his team - they really made it happen!" * Andrea Bonime-Blanc, Founder & CEO, GEC Risk Advisory *"Regardless of industry - whether it is agriculture, aviation or health care - organizations are all increasingly susceptible to cyberattacks, and businesses need to adapt accordingly. Cybersecurity for Business provides the tools for business and IT leaders alike to successfully navigate this new reality." * Richard Rocca, CISO, Bunge *"It is rare for a new volume to provide such excellent guidance on cyber for the working manager and practitioner. I hope board members and executives everywhere invest the time to absorb this book's fine contents." * Ed Amoroso, Former CISO, AT&T *"As an early advocate of enterprise risk management, I have seen the significant business value from better quantifying and integrating strategic, operational and financial risks. Cybersecurity cannot be managed effectively as a silo given its critical business and risk interdependencies. This practical book will help any organization break down that silo and address cybersecurity as a strategic, enterprise risk issue." * James C. Lam, President, James Lam & Associates; Chair of the Board, Recology; Chair of the Audit Committee, RiskLens; Author, 'Implementing Enterprise Risk Management' *"All businesses, large and small, will eventually find themselves the target of sophisticated cyber-attacks. Companies need to account for and adapt to this reality, especially as we all rely more on technology and data to drive our businesses. Cybersecurity for Business provides specific guidance for directors down to the front lines of IT, that, if followed, can place a company in a far better position to be armed and prepared for the inevitable cyber-attack." * Kevin Mandia, CEO, Mandiant *"Cybersecurity for Business is one of those rare practical books for businesses that can help large, medium and small companies manage the ongoing and unavoidable cyber risks now facing all industries. The threats facing manufacturers and all firms compound by the day, so learning these lessons now is crucial." * Jay Timmons, President and CEO, National Association of Manufacturers *"Utilities have been hit hard by hackers during the past few years, creating a need to balance risk with the demands of the new economics of the digital world. I cannot recommend Cybersecurity for Business enough. It helps organizations evaluate security for an enterprise-wide perspective consistent with the economics required to maintain effective service." * Ryan Boulais, Chief Information Security Officer, The AES Corporation *Table of Contents Section - ONE: Why we need to take an enterprise-wide approach to cyber risk; Chapter - 01: The growing cyber threat – Not just an "IT" issue; Chapter - 02: View from the top – How boards are addressing cyber risk; Chapter - 03: Structuring the organization for the digital age; Chapter - 04: A modern approach to assessing cyber risk; Section - TWO: How to manage cyber risk from an enterprise-wide perspective; Chapter - 05: The roles and responsibilities of human resource management in cybersecurity; Chapter - 06: The roles and responsibilities of legal and general counsel; Chapter - 07: The roles and responsibilities of audit and compliance; Chapter - 08: Cybersecure supply chain and third-party management; Chapter - 09: The roles and responsibilities of technical operations; Chapter - 10: The roles and responsibilities of external communications and crisis management; Chapter - 11: The roles and responsibilities in mergers and acquisitions; Chapter - 12: The roles and responsivities of cyber operations in developing a culture of security

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Book SynopsisInternet Security Alliance provides thought leadership in cybersecurity and works with the US government to advocate for public policy that will advance the interests of cybersecurity.Larry Clinton is President of the Internet Security Alliance. He advises industry and government on cyber policy and regularly appears in the media to provide an expert opinion. He has briefed NATO, the Organization of American States (OAS), G-20 and the US Congress. He has twice been named to the NACD 'Directorship 100' list of the most influential individuals in corporate governance.Trade Review"Cybersecurity is national security. The only way to effectively protect ourselves is through a collective defense model. Cybersecurity for Business describes the roles and responsibilities individuals across an organization must take in this new age to work together to protect their enterprise and, in so doing, contribute to our nation's defense." * GEN (Ret) Keith Alexander, Former head of US Cyber Command Co-CEO, IronNet Cybersecurity, Inc. *"Cybersecurity for Business is a bonfire of wisdom for leaders who desire to be part of the executive decision-making team in their organization. Co-authored by an extraordinary group of global leaders and luminaries with topics as diverse as 'managing' your board of directors, developing key inter-organizational relationships and aligning business goals to cybersecurity, among others, this book will find a home on the desk of leaders and managers across the cybersecurity community." * Mark Weatherford, former Deputy Undersecretary for Cybersecurity at the US Department of Homeland Security. Chief Security Officer at AlertEnterprise *"Cybersecurity for Business takes the complicated and ever-changing world of data security and technology and offers a remarkably cogent collection of guidance from industry experts. The result is a practical and wide-ranging text and a powerful tool for keeping businesses safe." * Preet Bharara, former U.S. Attorney, Distinguished Scholar in Residence at NYU School of Law; CNN Senior Legal Analyst; author of NYT bestselling 'Doing Justice' and host of 'Stay Tuned with Preet' *"Cybersecurity for Business is one of the few books that recognizes that cybersecurity is not just a technology issue - it's a strategy issue and a leadership issue. Here you'll find excellent and timely guidance that will help leaders around the company and the world do their part to succeed in an environment of cyber risk." * Daniel Dobrygowski, Head of Governance and Trust, World Economic Forum *"This ISA book on cybersecurity risk management hits the mark on enabling organizations to contextualize cyber risk to financial, operational and business outcomes. These core principles align to the heightened expectations across the regulatory (SEC), investor, risk management and boardroom communities." * Chris Hetner, Former Senior Cybersecurity Advisor to the SEC Chair and Special Advisor for Cyber Risk to the NACD *"Leadership and management of cyber risk continues to evolve. Beyond just C-Suites and IT departments, this book brings the role of the whole organization - HR, PR, finance, legal compliance, marketing, etc. - into sharp focus. Cybersecurity is a team sport that must address leadership, management and the culture of security throughout the entire business enterprise. Cybersecurity for Business sets the principles and de-facto standard for modern cyber risk management." * Harry D. Raduege, Jr. Lieutenant General, USAF (Ret) Chief Executive Officer, National Cybersecurity Center *"Cybersecurity for Business tracks the principles we recommend our college and universities follow to enhance their own cyber risk resilience. As such, it's an excellent book for graduate and undergraduate courses in cyber, and its use will help create a more coherent, secure and sustainable digital environment." * Henry Stoever, President and CEO, Association of Governing Boards of Universities and Colleges (AGB) *"The aspect of Cybersecurity for Business that compelled me to adopt it as my textbook for Columbia's Enterprise Cyber Threats and Defenses course is the holistic approach taken to the defense of complex networks. As demonstrated by the impact of Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, dis-aligned localized defenses cannot withstand systematic attacks on complex multi-part networks. Even a single point of failure in an otherwise robust entity 'perimeter' renders the entire entity vulnerable. Because there is no security through obscurity, the only sustainable cyber defense is one architected top-down." * Dr. Corey Hirsch, CISO, Teledyne *"Cybersecurity for Business outlines a model any business should consider to align its technical systems with proper management to strengthen its cyber resilience. Besides serving as a guide to better manage cyber attacks, this book provides confirmation of our security program and the approach we've taken. Additionally, it reinforces concepts we routinely share with partners, customers, and other stakeholders across our ecosystems. What I like most is that it offers practical advice with a robust list of references for readers to dive even deeper into the various topics." * Jon Brickey, Senior Vice President Cybersecurity Evangelist, Mastercard *"Despite the deluge of cyber-attack headlines, too often boards of directors remain focused on how they should be preparing for the next inevitable breach, rather than thinking proactively about their cybersecurity oversight responsibilities. Cybersecurity for Business is an invaluable guide for directors and executives at organizations of all sizes to better understand the business, legal and technical dimensions of cybersecurity risk management, and how to optimize corporate governance to meet the challenges posed by multifaceted cyber threats. I consider it required reading for everyone interested in safeguarding their critical systems, supply chains, employees and customers." * Professor Scott J. Shackelford, JD, PhD, Chair, Indiana University Cybersecurity Risk Management Program *"The ISA's Cybersecurity for Business is the first comprehensive, practical, strategic and tactical guide to this rapidly evolving and constantly challenging subject that is both practical and academic. Indeed, it is exactly what I have been looking for as someone who both advises boards and management on strategic cyber risk management and governance and as a cyber-professor teaching a course on 'Cyber Leadership, Risk Oversight and Resilience' at NYU, where it will become my core textbook for future semesters. This is an outstanding contribution because it is written by people with direct experience on the front lines - indeed on the bleeding edge - of this ever-evolving threat and opportunity matrix and incorporates some of the groundbreaking risk governance work that Larry and the Internet Security Alliance have been doing for years with the NACD, the World Economic Forum and a number of leading industry associations around the world. And, finally, it goes beyond other publications by looking at the bigger systemic cyber-picture including the role of culture, economics, governance and how all the strategic and tactical dots interconnect. Kudos to Larry and his team - they really made it happen!" * Andrea Bonime-Blanc, Founder & CEO, GEC Risk Advisory *"Regardless of industry - whether it is agriculture, aviation or health care - organizations are all increasingly susceptible to cyberattacks, and businesses need to adapt accordingly. Cybersecurity for Business provides the tools for business and IT leaders alike to successfully navigate this new reality." * Richard Rocca, CISO, Bunge *"It is rare for a new volume to provide such excellent guidance on cyber for the working manager and practitioner. I hope board members and executives everywhere invest the time to absorb this book's fine contents." * Ed Amoroso, Former CISO, AT&T *"As an early advocate of enterprise risk management, I have seen the significant business value from better quantifying and integrating strategic, operational and financial risks. Cybersecurity cannot be managed effectively as a silo given its critical business and risk interdependencies. This practical book will help any organization break down that silo and address cybersecurity as a strategic, enterprise risk issue." * James C. Lam, President, James Lam & Associates; Chair of the Board, Recology; Chair of the Audit Committee, RiskLens; Author, 'Implementing Enterprise Risk Management' *"All businesses, large and small, will eventually find themselves the target of sophisticated cyber-attacks. Companies need to account for and adapt to this reality, especially as we all rely more on technology and data to drive our businesses. Cybersecurity for Business provides specific guidance for directors down to the front lines of IT, that, if followed, can place a company in a far better position to be armed and prepared for the inevitable cyber-attack." * Kevin Mandia, CEO, Mandiant *"Cybersecurity for Business is one of those rare practical books for businesses that can help large, medium and small companies manage the ongoing and unavoidable cyber risks now facing all industries. The threats facing manufacturers and all firms compound by the day, so learning these lessons now is crucial." * Jay Timmons, President and CEO, National Association of Manufacturers *"Utilities have been hit hard by hackers during the past few years, creating a need to balance risk with the demands of the new economics of the digital world. I cannot recommend Cybersecurity for Business enough. It helps organizations evaluate security for an enterprise-wide perspective consistent with the economics required to maintain effective service." * Ryan Boulais, Chief Information Security Officer, The AES Corporation *Table of Contents Section - ONE: Why we need to take an enterprise-wide approach to cyber risk; Chapter - 01: The growing cyber threat – Not just an "IT" issue; Chapter - 02: View from the top – How boards are addressing cyber risk; Chapter - 03: Structuring the organization for the digital age; Chapter - 04: A modern approach to assessing cyber risk; Section - TWO: How to manage cyber risk from an enterprise-wide perspective; Chapter - 05: The roles and responsibilities of human resource management in cybersecurity; Chapter - 06: The roles and responsibilities of legal and general counsel; Chapter - 07: The roles and responsibilities of audit and compliance; Chapter - 08: Cybersecure supply chain and third-party management; Chapter - 09: The roles and responsibilities of technical operations; Chapter - 10: The roles and responsibilities of external communications and crisis management; Chapter - 11: The roles and responsibilities in mergers and acquisitions; Chapter - 12: The roles and responsivities of cyber operations in developing a culture of security

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Book SynopsisMartin Massey has worked for some of the leading global insurance and risk consulting firms and has over 30 years of industry experience. He is the Managing Director of OneRisk Consulting Ltd, providing Enterprise Risk Management consultancy services with a focus on climate change risk management. He is Chair of the Institute of Risk Management's (IRM) Climate Change Special Interest Group and helped to design and launch the IRM's climate change training course. Martin Massey also wrote the IRM's Climate Change Practitioners Guide in 2021. He is based in London, UK.The IRM is a world leading professional body for risk management, driving excellence in managing risk to ensure organizations are ready for opportunities and threats of the future. They are headquartered in London, UK.Trade Review"A must-read for anyone managing climate risk. The book is insightful, informative and a great one stop shop among a plethora of thought leadership out there on the topic. Most importantly, the book contains excellent practical guidance on how to incorporate climate risk management into existing risk management frameworks and equally, how to start from scratch. I will certainly be consulting it." * Susan Young, CRO, R&Q *"Building on the existing tools and techniques of risk management Martin Massey methodically shows the reader how to encompass and embrace the challenges that climate change will bring to us all. The book is readily accessible for those new to risk management but will also bring fresh insight to those familiar with the concepts." * Roy Boukins, Group Risk Officer, Accelerant Holdings *"Finally, here is a book which provides risk and financial professionals with a roadmap for implementing climate risk into their thinking. The book contains a host of comprehensive detail to equip readers with everything they need to achieve the business transformation that is required." * Rachel Johnson, ACCA Global *"This book provides great insight for risk managers needing to navigate the challenges of climate change, particularly during this early exploratory stage as firms start to ramp up their expertise to improve understanding of risks and opportunities." * Judith Ellison, Business Development Manager, JBA Risk Management *"This book explains in a very clear and methodically way how to integrate climate risks into an existing ERM and Governance Framework." * Alfa Falconi, Director Enterprise Risk | Governance, Risk & Compliance (GRC), NEOM *"Martin Massey has written a book which will be welcomed by the risk management community, but more importantly by their children and grandchildren as we wrestle with the changes required for a net zero future. I am confident that the book will greatly help the reader to bring climate risk into their thinking including the opportunities that climate change presents to us all." * Paul Mahon, Head of Technical Development, Cornish Mutual *"Addressing the overarching issue of how we inhabit the planet, Martin Massey's book informs and equips us superbly to develop a culture that unites everyone's positive efforts around a core consensus on climate risk. He draws together a superb array of expert insights, shows us all how to take reassuringly practical steps, and finds new opportunities for enterprise even as we engage with an existential threat." * Dr Roger Miles, Head of Faculty, UK Finance: Conduct Leaders Academy *"Building on existing tools and techniques of risk management, Martin Massey methodically shows the reader how to encompass and embrace the challenges that climate change will bring to us all. The book is readily accessible for those new to risk management but I am sure it will also bring fresh insight to those familiar with the concepts." * Derek Thrumble, Head of Analytics, Gallagher Specialty *Table of Contents Chapter - 00: Introduction - Climate change enterprise risk management in context; Chapter - 01: Climate change risk landscape and ERM maturity; Chapter - 02: Climate strategic positioning and risk appetite integration; Chapter - 03: Developing an effective climate governance framework; Chapter - 04: Climate change risk identification techniques including stakeholder mapping; Chapter - 05: Managing transition risks; Chapter - 06: Building climate resilience; Chapter - 07: Climate physical risks – Data sources, uses and challenges; Chapter - 08: Designing an effective climate emerging risk management process; Chapter - 09: Climate emerging trends, issues and challenges; Chapter - 10: Climate stress and scenario testing; Chapter - 11: Climate risk integration into specific business processes; Chapter - 12: Financial reporting and climate disclosures

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Book SynopsisMartin Massey has worked for some of the leading global insurance and risk consulting firms and has over 30 years of industry experience. He is the Managing Director of OneRisk Consulting Ltd, providing Enterprise Risk Management consultancy services with a focus on climate change risk management. He is Chair of the Institute of Risk Management's (IRM) Climate Change Special Interest Group and helped to design and launch the IRM's climate change training course. Martin Massey also wrote the IRM's Climate Change Practitioners Guide in 2021. He is based in London, UK.The IRM is a world leading professional body for risk management, driving excellence in managing risk to ensure organizations are ready for opportunities and threats of the future. They are headquartered in London, UK.Trade Review"A must-read for anyone managing climate risk. The book is insightful, informative and a great one stop shop among a plethora of thought leadership out there on the topic. Most importantly, the book contains excellent practical guidance on how to incorporate climate risk management into existing risk management frameworks and equally, how to start from scratch. I will certainly be consulting it." * Susan Young, CRO, R&Q *"Building on the existing tools and techniques of risk management Martin Massey methodically shows the reader how to encompass and embrace the challenges that climate change will bring to us all. The book is readily accessible for those new to risk management but will also bring fresh insight to those familiar with the concepts." * Roy Boukins, Group Risk Officer, Accelerant Holdings *"Finally, here is a book which provides risk and financial professionals with a roadmap for implementing climate risk into their thinking. The book contains a host of comprehensive detail to equip readers with everything they need to achieve the business transformation that is required." * Rachel Johnson, ACCA Global *"This book provides great insight for risk managers needing to navigate the challenges of climate change, particularly during this early exploratory stage as firms start to ramp up their expertise to improve understanding of risks and opportunities." * Judith Ellison, Business Development Manager, JBA Risk Management *"This book explains in a very clear and methodically way how to integrate climate risks into an existing ERM and Governance Framework." * Alfa Falconi, Director Enterprise Risk | Governance, Risk & Compliance (GRC), NEOM *"Martin Massey has written a book which will be welcomed by the risk management community, but more importantly by their children and grandchildren as we wrestle with the changes required for a net zero future. I am confident that the book will greatly help the reader to bring climate risk into their thinking including the opportunities that climate change presents to us all." * Paul Mahon, Head of Technical Development, Cornish Mutual *"Addressing the overarching issue of how we inhabit the planet, Martin Massey's book informs and equips us superbly to develop a culture that unites everyone's positive efforts around a core consensus on climate risk. He draws together a superb array of expert insights, shows us all how to take reassuringly practical steps, and finds new opportunities for enterprise even as we engage with an existential threat." * Dr Roger Miles, Head of Faculty, UK Finance: Conduct Leaders Academy *"Building on existing tools and techniques of risk management, Martin Massey methodically shows the reader how to encompass and embrace the challenges that climate change will bring to us all. The book is readily accessible for those new to risk management but I am sure it will also bring fresh insight to those familiar with the concepts." * Derek Thrumble, Head of Analytics, Gallagher Specialty *Table of Contents Chapter - 00: Introduction - Climate change enterprise risk management in context; Chapter - 01: Climate change risk landscape and ERM maturity; Chapter - 02: Climate strategic positioning and risk appetite integration; Chapter - 03: Developing an effective climate governance framework; Chapter - 04: Climate change risk identification techniques including stakeholder mapping; Chapter - 05: Managing transition risks; Chapter - 06: Building climate resilience; Chapter - 07: Climate physical risks – Data sources, uses and challenges; Chapter - 08: Designing an effective climate emerging risk management process; Chapter - 09: Climate emerging trends, issues and challenges; Chapter - 10: Climate stress and scenario testing; Chapter - 11: Climate risk integration into specific business processes; Chapter - 12: Financial reporting and climate disclosures

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Book SynopsisDavid Hillson is a thought-leader and expert practitioner in risk management, based in Petersfield, UK. He has advised major organizations, governments and charities in 60 countries on creating value from risk using applied risk-based thinking. He has written 13 major books on risk and has developed significant innovations that are now widely accepted as best practice. He has received many awards for his ground-breaking work in risk management. He regularly shares his work through the RiskDoctorVideo YouTube channel.Trade Review"An opportunity to learn from the risk world's best thinkers in one easy to navigate handbook. This will become your go to guide for pivotal risk responses, with useful pointers on next steps and emerging risk issues." * Clare Ball, Director of Internal Audit, Risk Assurance & Insurance, Babcock International Group, UK *"A collection of expert insights on various dimensions of risk, written in straightforward language that articulates in practical terms key nuances of risk management for decision-making. A must-read for anyone seeking to better understand risk and the management thereof." * Daniel Udochi, Head of Risk, du, United Arab Emirates *"The Risk Management Handbook brings together an impressive line-up of global thought leaders with a wide array of experience and expertise, providing readers with a practical handbook that covers all contemporary topics, and more, within the risk management field. This is a valuable resource for me as an educator when teaching risk management, often to non-risk students. This book caters not only to those explicitly interested in risk and risk management, but those new to the field, who want to or need to learn about this discipline that is critical to successfully running an organisation. I look forward to using this new edition with my students!" * Dr Paula Sonja Karlsson-Brown, Senior Lecturer in Management, Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, UK *"A must-have resource, offering a relevant collection of expert contributions and practical insights on the latest evolution of the risk management discipline. It is structured in a logical manner, making it perfect for a deep dive on risk management or a quick refresher on a specific subject." * Francesca Schiezzari, Head of Risk Management, Leonardo Helicopters, Italy *"The Risk Management Handbook is an exceptional comprehensive guide on risk management topics and applications, full of important information for professionals, students and managers. This new edition has been updated with many recent and emergent risk issues, making it an important current source for all of us interested in risk." * Dr Terje Aven, Professor of Risk Science, University of Stavanger, Norway *"The Risk Management Handbook equips readers with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate the complexities of risk management. With its comprehensive coverage and timely insights, this book empowers readers to effectively manage risk in the ever-evolving business landscape. Whether you are seeking an in-depth understanding or are simply intrigued by the subject, this handbook offers a practical and thought-provoking approach to risk management." * Shai Davidov, Associate Professor of Management, Operations Management & Logistics Group, Edinburgh Business School, UK *Table of Contents Chapter - 00: Preface [Dr David Hillson]; Section - ONE: Dimensions of risk management; Chapter - 01: Introducing risk [Dr David Hillson]; Chapter - 02: Enterprise Risk Management [John Crawley and Emer McAneny]; Chapter - 03: Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG) Risk Management [Dr Sarah Gordon]; Chapter - 04: Operational risk management [Dr Ariane Chapelle]; Chapter - 05: Financial Risk Management [Clive Thompson]; Chapter - 06: Business Continuity Management [Ian Clark]; Chapter - 07: Reputational risk management [Arif Zaman]; Chapter - 08: Project, Programme and Portfolio Risk Management [Dr Dale Cooper]; Chapter - 09: Supply Chain Risk Management [Linda Conrad]; Chapter - 10: Cyber Risk Management [Alex Stezycki]; Chapter - 11: Legal Risk Management [Dr Sam De Silva]; Chapter - 12: Climate Change Risk Management [Martin Massey]; Chapter - 13: Political Risk Management [Robert McKellar]; Chapter - 14: Country Risk Management [Nicki Kons]; Chapter - 15: Stakeholder Risk Management [Dr Lynda Bourne]; Chapter - 16: Ethics in Risk Management [Giusi Meloni]; Chapter - 17: Risk Management in International Development Cooperation [Magda Stepanyan]; Section - TWO: CROSS-CUTTING DISCIPLINES; Chapter - 18: Risk Culture [Alex Hindson]; Chapter - 19: Risk-Based Decision Making [Keith Smith]; Chapter - 20: Risk Leadership in Complexity [Dr Richard Barber]; Chapter - 21: Resilience [Dr Erica Seville]; Chapter - 22: Communicating Uncertainty [Professor Veronica Bowman OBE]; Chapter - 23: Organisational Change Management and Risk [Dr Ruth Murray-Webster]; Chapter - Epilogue: The Future of Risk Management [Dr David Hillson]

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Book SynopsisJohn Manners-Bell is founder and CEO of Transport Intelligence Ltd. He is an Honorary Visiting Professor, London Guildhall Faculty of Business and Law, London Metropolitan University. He was formerly Chair of the Logistics and Supply Chain Global Agenda Council of the World Economic Forum, speaking and moderating at the annual Davos meeting. In 2021 he founded the Foundation for Future Supply Chain. His most recent book, Logistics and Supply Chain Innovation, was published by Kogan Page in November 2022.Trade Review"Supply Chain Risk Management is a comprehensive guide, shedding light on the intricate landscape of supply chain risk and the increasingly important role supply chains play as a buffer. John Manners-Bell illuminates newly emerged fragilities of global supply chains, how to identify and assess risks and how to develop and implement mitigation strategies, often based on new analytics and AI tools. I highly recommend this book to anyone who is responsible for business continuity." * Thomas Van Vliet, Director, Business Analytics, Solutions, DSV *"Supply Chain Risk Management is a wake-up call for those 'risk-agnostic' organizations that need to immediately adopt a more pro-active approach with respect to risk prevention. Anchored in today's reality, the book covers a wide range of topics and includes new tools, techniques and metrics that can be used as an effective way to identify, assess, mitigate and manage risks." * Dr Laurentiu David, Professor of Decision Sciences, Centennial College, Ontario *"Supply Chain Risk Management provides a deep dive into many of the world's largest multinational corporate agendas, both with an internal and external risk focus. John explores risks across production, manufacturing, logistics, technology and networks, in both micro and macroeconomic environments. The combination of John's highly regarded academic, research and theoretical strengths, combined with a long established international reputation as a hands on supply chain practitioner, make this book essential reading for those at all levels and areas of the global supply chain community." * Kim Winter, Group Managing Director, Logistics Executive Group *"Supply chain risk management has soared to the top of the corporate agenda since the beginning of the 2020s, as the pandemic opened top executives' eyes to supply chain vulnerabilities across all industries. Supply chain resilience is gaining traction as an essential goal, challenging decades of cost-optimization focus. This book brings together existing practice and new thinking, guiding supply chain design in an increasingly volatile and complex world." * Alex Irving, Transport Equity Research Analyst, Bernstein Autonomous *Table of Contents Chapter - 00: Introduction; Section - ONE: Building a resilient supply chain; Chapter - 01: A framework for understanding risk; Chapter - 02: Engineering supply chain resilience; Chapter - 03: Contagion and logistics networks; Chapter - 04: Lessons from the Covid crisis; Section - TWO: Industry sector risk; Chapter - 05: Industry sector resilience to supply chain threats; Chapter - 06: Automotive supply chains; Chapter - 07: High-tech supply chains; Chapter - 08: Consumer goods supply chains; Chapter - 09: Food supply chain vulnerability; Chapter - 10: Evolving risk in pharmaceutical supply chains; Chapter - 11: Fashion supply chains; Section - THREE: Supply chains’ interaction with the natural world; Chapter - 12: Natural disasters; Chapter - 13: Climate change and emissions policy; Chapter - 14: Environmental impact of global value chains; Section - FOUR: Economic, societal and political risks; Chapter - 15: Economic risks to the supply chain; Chapter - 16: Societal risks to supply chains; Chapter - 17: Political risks in international supply chains; Section - FIVE: Security and cyber threats; Chapter - 18: Corruption and bribery in international logistics; Chapter - 19: Cargo crime and piracy; Chapter - 20: Corruption in public procurement, defence and humanitarian logistics; Chapter - 21: Terrorism and security; Chapter - 22: Cyber threats to supply chains; Chapter - 23: Illicit supply chains; Chapter - 24: Conclusion; Chapter - 25: References;

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Book SynopsisJohn Manners-Bell is Founder and CEO of Transport Intelligence Ltd. He is an Honorary Visiting Professor, London Guildhall Faculty of Business and Law, London Metropolitan University. He was formerly Chair of the Logistics and Supply Chain Global Agenda Council of the World Economic Forum, speaking and moderating at the annual Davos meeting. In 2021 he founded the Foundation for Future Supply Chain. His most recent book, Logistics and Supply Chain Innovation, was published by Kogan Page in November 2022.Trade Review"Supply Chain Risk Management is a comprehensive guide, shedding light on the intricate landscape of supply chain risk and the increasingly important role supply chains play as a buffer. John Manners-Bell illuminates newly emerged fragilities of global supply chains, how to identify and assess risks and how to develop and implement mitigation strategies, often based on new analytics and AI tools. I highly recommend this book to anyone who is responsible for business continuity." * Thomas Van Vliet, Director, Business Analytics, Solutions, DSV *"Supply Chain Risk Management is a wake-up call for those 'risk-agnostic' organizations that need to immediately adopt a more pro-active approach with respect to risk prevention. Anchored in today's reality, the book covers a wide range of topics and includes new tools, techniques and metrics that can be used as an effective way to identify, assess, mitigate and manage risks." * Dr Laurentiu David, Professor of Decision Sciences, Centennial College, Ontario *"Supply Chain Risk Management provides a deep dive into many of the world's largest multinational corporate agendas, both with an internal and external risk focus. John explores risks across production, manufacturing, logistics, technology and networks, in both micro and macroeconomic environments. The combination of John's highly regarded academic, research and theoretical strengths, combined with a long established international reputation as a hands on supply chain practitioner, make this book essential reading for those at all levels and areas of the global supply chain community." * Kim Winter, Group Managing Director, Logistics Executive Group *"Supply chain risk management has soared to the top of the corporate agenda since the beginning of the 2020s, as the pandemic opened top executives' eyes to supply chain vulnerabilities across all industries. Supply chain resilience is gaining traction as an essential goal, challenging decades of cost-optimization focus. This book brings together existing practice and new thinking, guiding supply chain design in an increasingly volatile and complex world." * Alex Irving, Transport Equity Research Analyst, Bernstein Autonomous *Table of Contents Chapter - 00: Introduction; Section - ONE: Building a resilient supply chain; Chapter - 01: A framework for understanding risk; Chapter - 02: Engineering supply chain resilience; Chapter - 03: Contagion and logistics networks; Chapter - 04: Lessons from the Covid crisis; Section - TWO: Industry sector risk; Chapter - 05: Industry sector resilience to supply chain threats; Chapter - 06: Automotive supply chains; Chapter - 07: High-tech supply chains; Chapter - 08: Consumer goods supply chains; Chapter - 09: Food supply chain vulnerability; Chapter - 10: Evolving risk in pharmaceutical supply chains; Chapter - 11: Fashion supply chains; Section - THREE: Supply chains’ interaction with the natural world; Chapter - 12: Natural disasters; Chapter - 13: Climate change and emissions policy; Chapter - 14: Environmental impact of global value chains; Section - FOUR: Economic, societal and political risks; Chapter - 15: Economic risks to the supply chain; Chapter - 16: Societal risks to supply chains; Chapter - 17: Political risks in international supply chains; Section - FIVE: Security and cyber threats; Chapter - 18: Corruption and bribery in international logistics; Chapter - 19: Cargo crime and piracy; Chapter - 20: Corruption in public procurement, defence and humanitarian logistics; Chapter - 21: Terrorism and security; Chapter - 22: Cyber threats to supply chains; Chapter - 23: Illicit supply chains; Chapter - 24: Conclusion; Chapter - 25: References;

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Book SynopsisChristopher J Hodson is Chief Security Officer for Cyberhaven where he oversees all facets of security to protect Cyberhaven customers and employees, including cloud and application security, security operations, and risk management. In addition, Chris serves as a board advisor at the workforce development platform, Cybrary, and is a fellow of the Chartered Institute of Information Security. He has previously held CISO positions with Contentful, Zscaler, and Tanium. He is a guest lecturer at Royal Holloway, University of London where he also holds a master's degree in computer and information systems security.Trade Review"This is an excellent book. Christopher Hodson writes as he speaks, with passion and clear understanding of a profession of which he has extensive experience and loves. Cyber Risk Management is extremely well researched and provides the reader with a simple-to-follow, guided journey through the cyber issues we face and the approaches we should be taking to cope with them. Hodson's pragmatic style demystifies complex issues making this a great read for both experienced security professionals and non-professionals alike. This is required reading for anyone who wants to intelligently manage cyber risk, whether a CISO, CFO or CEO!" * Amanda Finch, CEO, Chartered Institute of Security Professionals *"In the fast-paced world of cybersecurity, Cyber Risk Management is a guiding light. This book combines expertise with a friendly touch, making it easy for readers to tackle security challenges, no matter their technical background. Christopher Hodson has a knack for unravelling cybersecurity jargon and presenting complex ideas in a way that anyone can understand. He effortlessly blends theory with practical examples, ensuring readers not only grasp the basics but also gain insights into real-world scenarios. Throughout the book, Hodson expertly covers the essentials of cybersecurity risk management, offering a solid framework for prioritizing threats, spotting vulnerabilities, and implementing effective controls. His conversational tone and patient approach make this book a valuable resource for both seasoned practitioners and newcomers." * Dana Wolf, CEO and Co-Founder, YeshID *"Everyone in the cybersecurity universe is experiencing a pace of change and complexity which is simply unprecedented. Christopher Hodson has captured our universe as it is today. He covers the meteoric rise of LLMs and changes in social appetite to technology, with the keen insight, deep expertise and humour that we expect from him. He gives us a reason to feel optimistic about these changes. Whilst so much is changing, the importance of understanding cybersecurity remains paramount and constant." * Phil Owen MBE, VP/Chief Security Officer, Telus Health *"Cyber Risk Management serves as both a valuable playbook for security leaders building out their programs, and a much-needed reference for their key business and technical partners across the organization. Christopher Hodson reinforces and enriches each topic by drawing upon a diverse set of examples from emerging technologies, geopolitical and regulatory forces, historical events, and noteworthy incidents." * Ryan Kazanciyan, CISO, Wiz *Table of Contents Section - PART ONE: Contextualizing cybersecurity risk; Chapter - 01: Why now? The only constant is change; Chapter - 02: Technologies and security challenges; Chapter - 03: Data breaches; Section - PART TWO: Cybersecurity programme management; Chapter - 04: What are cybersecurity and cybercrime?; Chapter - 05: Establishing a cybersecurity programme; Section - PART THREE: Actors, events and vulnerabilities; Chapter - 06: Threat actors; Chapter - 07: Threat events; Chapter - 08: Vulnerabilities; Chapter - 09: Controls; Section - PART FOUR: Conclusion: the cybersecurity risk equation explained; Chapter - 10: Cyber risk management: a conclusion;

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Book SynopsisChristopher J Hodson is Chief Security Officer for Cyberhaven where he oversees all facets of security to protect Cyberhaven customers and employees, including cloud and application security, security operations, and risk management. In addition, Chris serves as a board advisor at the workforce development platform, Cybrary, and is a fellow of the Chartered Institute of Information Security. He has previously held CISO positions with Contentful, Zscaler, and Tanium. He is a guest lecturer at Royal Holloway, University of London where he also holds a master's degree in computer and information systems security.Trade Review"This is an excellent book. Christopher Hodson writes as he speaks, with passion and clear understanding of a profession of which he has extensive experience and loves. Cyber Risk Management is extremely well researched and provides the reader with a simple-to-follow, guided journey through the cyber issues we face and the approaches we should be taking to cope with them. Hodson's pragmatic style demystifies complex issues making this a great read for both experienced security professionals and non-professionals alike. This is required reading for anyone who wants to intelligently manage cyber risk, whether a CISO, CFO or CEO!" * Amanda Finch, CEO, Chartered Institute of Security Professionals *"In the fast-paced world of cybersecurity, Cyber Risk Management is a guiding light. This book combines expertise with a friendly touch, making it easy for readers to tackle security challenges, no matter their technical background. Christopher Hodson has a knack for unravelling cybersecurity jargon and presenting complex ideas in a way that anyone can understand. He effortlessly blends theory with practical examples, ensuring readers not only grasp the basics but also gain insights into real-world scenarios. Throughout the book, Hodson expertly covers the essentials of cybersecurity risk management, offering a solid framework for prioritizing threats, spotting vulnerabilities, and implementing effective controls. His conversational tone and patient approach make this book a valuable resource for both seasoned practitioners and newcomers." * Dana Wolf, CEO and Co-Founder, YeshID *"Everyone in the cybersecurity universe is experiencing a pace of change and complexity which is simply unprecedented. Christopher Hodson has captured our universe as it is today. He covers the meteoric rise of LLMs and changes in social appetite to technology, with the keen insight, deep expertise and humour that we expect from him. He gives us a reason to feel optimistic about these changes. Whilst so much is changing, the importance of understanding cybersecurity remains paramount and constant." * Phil Owen MBE, VP/Chief Security Officer, Telus Health *"Cyber Risk Management serves as both a valuable playbook for security leaders building out their programs, and a much-needed reference for their key business and technical partners across the organization. Christopher Hodson reinforces and enriches each topic by drawing upon a diverse set of examples from emerging technologies, geopolitical and regulatory forces, historical events, and noteworthy incidents." * Ryan Kazanciyan, CISO, Wiz *Table of Contents Section - PART ONE: Contextualizing cybersecurity risk; Chapter - 01: Why now? The only constant is change; Chapter - 02: Technologies and security challenges; Chapter - 03: Data breaches; Section - PART TWO: Cybersecurity programme management; Chapter - 04: What are cybersecurity and cybercrime?; Chapter - 05: Establishing a cybersecurity programme; Section - PART THREE: Actors, events and vulnerabilities; Chapter - 06: Threat actors; Chapter - 07: Threat events; Chapter - 08: Vulnerabilities; Chapter - 09: Controls; Section - PART FOUR: Conclusion: the cybersecurity risk equation explained; Chapter - 10: Cyber risk management: a conclusion;

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Book SynopsisKeith Martin is a Professor of Information Security at Royal Holloway, University of London, UK, and director of the EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Cyber Security for the Everyday. Jassim Happa is a Senior Lecturer in Information Security at Royal Holloway, University of London, UK.Konstantinos Mersinas is a Senior Lecturer in Information Security at Royal Holloway, University of London, UK. Guido Schmitz is an Assistant Professor in Computer Science and Cyber Security at Lancaster University, UK.

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Book SynopsisJames Crask is Managing Director of Strategic Risk Consulting for Marsh, working with clients to deliver resilience and business continuity solutions. He also chairs the International Standards Committee responsible for all global Business Continuity and Organisational Resilience ISO Standards, including ISO 22301:2019. He previously worked for PwC where he was responsible for building the UK firm's business resilience advisory services and has held roles for the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority and for the BBC. He is based in London.

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