Decision theory: general Books

Book SynopsisOur most deeply held opinions and beliefs can be changed here's how.Trade Review‘An optimistic, illuminating and even inspiring read.’ -- Guardian‘Fascinating.’ -- Daily Mail‘The concept – that, with more knowledge, long-held hypotheses can be disproved – isn’t likely to be news… But it doesn’t make McRaney’s book any less interesting… [McRaney’s] writing is a tonic for those who might scratch their head at how others could be so nonsensical.’ -- New Scientist‘How Minds Change brings us face to face with the radically weird science of how our thoughts, perceptions, and beliefs are actually formed, and how they can, for better or worse, be modified. The sensation this book creates of being a bit of a stranger to one’s own mind is not entirely comfortable, but it is surely worthwhile.’ -- Jordan Ellenberg, author of Shape and How Not to Be Wrong‘David McRaney is one of our finest science communicators and How Minds Change is his greatest achievement yet. Brilliantly smart, continually entertaining and utterly timely, it will change the way you see the world – and help you change others.’ -- Will Storr, author of Selfie and The Science of Storytelling‘A riveting read on the art and science of persuasion. David McRaney’s brilliant book will force you to rethink your views about how to motivate other people to rethink theirs. In a time when too many minds seem closed, this is a masterful analysis of what it takes to open them.’ -- Adam Grant, author of Think Again‘When I first talked to David McRaney about How Minds Change, I found myself taking mad notes on everything he was explaining to me! Thank goodness he wrote the book so I can relax and just soak it all in!’ -- Simon Sinek, author of Start with Why and The Infinite Game‘If you join David McRaney on this journey – a spirited tour that ranges from activists to scientists to cultists – you’ll arrive in an unexpected place. He shows us how generous conversations can replace zero-sum debates and how genuine empathy can close deep divisions. How Minds Change is the ideal book for our perilous moment.’ -- Daniel H. Pink, author of To Sell is Human and Drive‘McRaney’s topic in How Minds Change couldn’t be more important, and he’s the perfect guide to it: warm, witty, and powered by an infectious curiosity.’ -- Julia Galef, host of the Rationally Speaking podcast and author of The Scout Mindset‘Filled with the kinds of captivating real-life stories that you can’t wait to tell your friends and the latest scientific insights from psychology and beyond, McRaney’s book provides a surprising glimpse into why changing human minds is so damn hard… but also the good news that it can in fact be possible with the right strategies.’ -- Laurie Santos, professor of psychology at Yale University and host of The Happiness Lab podcast‘McRaney’s the best science writer I know at this complex, fascinating subject – the fabric of our thought and beliefs. How Minds Change is a page-turner, filled with remarkable reporting and stories.’ -- Clive Thompson, author of Coders‘How Minds Change explores why some worldviews seem so stubbornly immune to reason and why people will nevertheless change their minds in the right circumstances.’ -- Tim Harford, FT Weekend

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Book SynopsisNudge has transformed the way individuals, companies and governments look at the world - and in the process has become one of the most important books of the twenty-first century. This completely updated edition offers a wealth of new insights for fans and newcomers alike - about COVID-19, diet, personal finance, retirement savings, medical care, organ donation, and climate change.Every day we make decisions: about the things we buy or the meals we eat; about the investments we make and the time we spend; about our health and that of the planet. Unfortunately, we often choose badly.We are all susceptible to biases that can lead us to make bad decisions that make us poorer, less healthy and less happy. And, as Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein show, no choice is ever presented to us in a neutral way. But by knowing how people think, we can make it easier for them to choose what is best for themselves, for their families and for society. With brilliant insight and wonderful levity, Thaler and Sunstein demonstrate how best to nudge us in the right directions, without ever restricting our freedom of choice.

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Book SynopsisTrade ReviewA thinker for uncertain times. . . If you want to better understand populism, Trump, Brexit and the anti-establishment backlash then Taleb, of no party or clique, is your man -- Josh Glancy * Sunday Times *A great iconoclast. . . Taleb, a Wall Street trader turned essayist, is a thinker touched by genius. . . The big picture he presents is powerfully argued and offers myriad policy implications -- Matthew Syed * The Times *The most prophetic voice of all . . . Taleb is a genuinely significant philosopher . . . someone who is able to change the way we view the structure of the world through the strength, originality and veracity of his ideas alone -- John Gray * GQ *Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the Richard Wagner of uncertainty. While the Ring Cycle of the German composer/librettist portrayed the struggle of the gods in a series of operas, the Incerto series of books by the Lebanese-American author is devoted to humans -- specifically how we deal with the endemic risk in our all-too-finite existence -- Dominic Lawson * Sunday Times *As always with Taleb, this is a fascinating set of ideas. And he's right. People with skin in the game learn how the game works. Without it, they don't -- William Leith * Evening Standard *The author of The Black Swan is back with a simple warning: don't buy what your neighbour is selling unless he owns some too. The obvious application for this is investing, but Taleb has a much broader domain. In a kind of philosophical Freakonomics, he takes us from 5th-century wandering monks (banned by the church because they were too free) to Donald Trump (his imperfections showed he had skin in the game) -- Rosamund Urwin * Sunday Times Books of the Year *

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a huge range and FREE tracked UK delivery on ALL orders.

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Book SynopsisTHE NEW INTERNATIONAL BESTSELLER FROM THE AUTHOR OF THE BIG SHORT AND FLASH BOYS''A gripping account of how two psychologists reshaped the way we think ... What a story it is'' Sunday Times ''You''ll love it ... full of surprises and no small degree of tragedy'' Tim HarfordIn 1969 two men met on a university campus. Their names were Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. They were different in every way. But they were both obsessed with the human mind - and both happened to be geniuses. Together, they would change the way we see the world.''An enchanted collaboration ... During the final pages, I was blinking back tears'' The New York Times ''My favourite writer full stop. Engages both heart and brain like no other'' Daily Telegraph''Brilliant, a wonderful book, a masterclass'' Spectator ''Psychology''s Lennon and McCartney ... Lewis is exactly the storyteller they deserve'' ObserverTrade ReviewMichael Lewis is a brilliant writer... The Undoing Project is a masterclass in narrative non-fiction -- Steven Poole * Spectator *A new book by Michael Lewis promises an absorbing story, dazzling ideas, journalistic flair and originality. He achieves this with extraordinary consistency. In The Undoing Project he has achieved it again. -- Danny Finkelstein * The Times *Kahneman and Tversky's deep friendship and intellectual collaboration has arguably done as much to define our world as, say, the intertwining between Francis Crick and James Watson... Michael Lewis, with his great gift for humanising complex and abstract ideas, is exactly the storyteller Tversky and Kahneman deserve. -- Tim Adams * Observer *I normally write two or three pages of notes when reviewing a book. On this occasion I scribbled six, often in high excitement. Lewis has a strong journalist's sense of a good story and the book is dotted with hundreds. He also has a feeling for pace and intensity. Although this is an easy read, nothing is wasted and everything seems to be in the right place. And what a story it is! -- Bryan Appleyard * Sunday Times *Michael Lewis is perhaps my favourite writer full stop. At his best, Lewis engages both heart and brain like no author, and he tells the story of Tversky and Kahneman beautifully... the final sections will have you weeping -- Robert Colvile * Daily Telegraph *Leaves you feeling cleverer -- Katie Law * Evening Standard *Part biography of a friendship and part account of psychology's impact, while also taking in much of modern Israel's history, this is a fine showcase of Mr Lewis's range ... it is a story of remarkable individuals succeeding through innovative ideas ... Lewis has managed the unusual feat of interweaving psychology and the friendship between two men * Economist *Michael Lewis is perhaps my favourite writer full stop ... he engages both heart and brain like no other author, and he tells the story of Tversky and Kahneman beautifully -- Robert Colville * Telegraph *Gripping ... There is war, heroism, genius, love, loss, discovery, enduring loyalty and friendship. It is epic stuff ... Michael Lewis is one of the best non-fiction writers of our time. The writing has wit, passion and scientific credibility -- Pete Lunn * Irish Times *Michael Lewis could spin gold out of any topic he chose ... his best work ... vivid, original and hard to forget -- Tim Harford * Financial Times *

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Book Synopsis''Original, thought-provoking and a joy to read'' Tim HarfordWinner of best smart thinking book (Business Book Awards) and a Guardian best books of 2021When it comes to what we believe, humans see what they want to see. In other words, we have what Julia Galef calls a ''soldier'' mindset. From tribalism and wishful thinking, to rationalising in our personal lives and everything in between, we are driven to defend the ideas we most want to believe - and shoot down those we don''t.But if we want to get things right more often we should train ourselves to think more like a scout. Unlike the soldier, a scout''s goal isn''t to defend one side over the other. It''s to go out, survey the territory, and come back with as accurate a map as possible. Regardless of what they hope to be the case, above all, the scout wants to know what''s actually true.In The Scout Mindset, Galef shows that what makes scouts better at getting things right isn''t that they''re smarter or more knowledgeable than everyone else. It''s a handful of emotional skills, habits, and ways of looking at the world - which anyone can learn.With fascinating examples ranging from how to survive being stranded in the middle of the ocean, to how Jeff Bezos avoids overconfidence, to how superforecasters outperform CIA operatives, to Reddit threads and modern partisan politics, Galef explores why our brains deceive us and what we can do to change the way we think.''Highly recommended. It''s not easy to become (more of) a scout, but it''s hard not to be inspired by this book'' Rutger Bregman''With insights that are both sharp and actionable, The Scout Mindset picks up where Predictably Irrational left off. Reading it will teach you to think more clearly, see yourself more accurately, and be wrong a little less often'' Adam GrantTrade ReviewJulia Galef doesn't simply harangue us for not thinking clearly; she diagnoses why we do it, and suggests concrete ways to improve our rationality. This is a book that will make a real difference in how you think -- Sean Carroll, author of Something Deeply HiddenJulia Galef is an intellectual leader of the rationalist community, and in The Scout Mindset you will find an engaging, clearly written distillation of her very important accumulated wisdom on these topics -- Tyler Cowen, author of Big Business and The Great StagnationDrawing on her extensive knowledge of the scientific literature and of popular culture, Julia Galef explores the remarkable human capacity for self-deception - and shows us how we can catch ourselves in the act of fooling ourselves -- Philip Tetlock, author of SuperforecastingThe Scout Mindset offers an insightful, entertaining and genuinely useful guide to thinking more clearly -- Don Moore, author of Perfectly ConfidentAn engaging and enlightening account from which we all can benefit * Wall Street Journal *Highly recommended. It's not easy to become (more of) a scout, but it's hard not to be inspired by this book -- Rutger Bregman, bestselling author of Humankind and Utopia for RealistsWe know a lot about how flawed human reasoning is, but surprisingly little about how to repair it in our daily lives. Thankfully, Julia Galef is here to change that. With insights that are both sharp and actionable, her book picks up where Predictably Irrational left off. Reading it will teach you to think more clearly, see yourself more accurately, and be wrong a little less often -- Adam Grant, author of Originals and Give and Take, host of WorkLife podcastJulia understands human thinking with incredible clarity and she's a master at communicating that clarity to others through her writing and metaphors. I haven't stopped thinking about the scout mindset ever since I first heard Julia explain it -- Tim Urban, writer and creator of Wait But WhyJulia Galef is one of the smartest, most exciting voices not just in American rationalism, but in American writing period. She is consistently fascinating -- Johann Hari, international bestselling author of Stolen Focus and Lost ConnectionsJulia Galef, one of our foremost experts on identifying the problem of motivated reasoning and cognitive biases, has produced the best work to date on what to do about it, both personally to improve our lives and socially to make the world a more rational and reasonable place for all. A must-read for all who have trouble saying "I was wrong" and "I change my mind", which is all of us -- Michael Shermer, writer, founder of Skeptic, and New York Times bestselling author of The Moral ArcThe Scout Mindset is essential reading for understanding how the stories we tell ourselves sacrifice better decision-making in the long-term for a short-term boost to our egos . . . A must-read for anyone looking be more rational in their choices -- Annie Duke, author of Thinking in BetsMost books tell you what to think. This is something rarer, and more valuable: A book about how to think and how to learn, without the fear or favour that so often holds us back from inching closer to the truth. The beauty of The Scout Mindset demonstration is it is, itself, an example of the ethos it teaches. The delight it takes in questioning its own premises, and understanding the alternative arguments, will make you want to be a scout, too -- Ezra Klein, cofounder of Vox, author of Why We Are Polarized, and host of The Ezra Klein Show podcastI've learned more about how to think and reason well from Julia Galef than from almost anyone -- Dylan Matthews, senior correspondent at Vox

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Book SynopsisUnderstand the unique pattern to change and you can turn that change into opportunity!Change: How to Turn Uncertainty Into Opportunity is among the transformative books to change your mindset on navigating change with confidence. With a wealth of experience, the experts at FranklinCovey demystify uncertainty and empower leaders to drive positive outcomes for business management.Understand the predictable patterns. By following the Change Model outlined in the book, leaders can effectively engage their teams and chart a clear path forward. This book provides concrete examples for engaging teams through their unique process for creating actionable change. It also explores how to leaders and their businesses can get comfortable with uncertainty, make informed decisions, and adapt to varying circumstances, fostering a culture of positive change and innovation within organizations.A profound business parable. Change: How to Turn Uncertainty Into Opportunity is a must-read for anyone seeking to be adept at the art of problem solving and take control of the change process. It is a valuable resource that begins with a business parable that invites leaders to reflect on their own change journey and discover their team''s set of predictable patterns and reactions. Navigate change effectively and drive meaningful results in today''s dynamic business management environment.Inside you’ll find: Concrete examples and step-by-step instructions to engage teams through the change process Details on the Change Model leading to actionable and predictable change Insights into where most change initiatives fail and how to adapt If you are looking for some of the best business management books such as Powering Change or Who Rocked the Boat? then read Change!

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Book SynopsisHow do we decide how we decide? On the largest matters and the smallest ones, we make such decisions all the time. This book casts light on decisions about decisionswhat they are, where they go wrong, and how they can be helped to go right.Trade Review'How should we choose when our values might change as a result of our choice? Or when we have limited time to assess the options? How should we decide what we want to learn and what we ought to believe? In Decisions about Decisions, Sunstein presents a rich and diverse set of reflections on these and other questions about how we do, and should, decide how to make the choices that fill our lives. The prose is clear and engaging; the essays packed with illuminating and accessible examples; the thought deeply informed throughout by Sunstein's broad knowledge of behavioral economics, public policy, legal theory, and philosophy.' Richard Pettigrew, University of Bristol'For over three decades, Cass Sunstein has thought deeply and creatively about decisions, large and small, personal and professional, public and private. From environmental protection to free speech, from cognitive burdens to nudges. Join him here on an adventurous voyage exploring how we decide about our decisions - not only their outcomes, but also the emotional impact our decisions have on us decision-makers.' Eldar Shafir, Princeton University'Sunstein is a brilliant and wide ranging thinker whose work in decision theory has been extraordinarily influential. Decisions about Decisions is a deeply insightful - and deeply fun - tour de force of decision-making large and small, a must read for anyone interested in the practical art of how to decide.' L. A. Paul, Yale University'In Decisions about Decisions, Cass Sunstein challenges the premise, widely adopted in Economics and other disciplines, that decision making is merely a means to an end. Instead, he posits that the process of arriving at a choice is emotionally consequential. The book systematically explores implications for how we choose who we are, what we value, what we know, what we believe, and ultimately what we do. Sunstein rewards the reader with rich insights and novel perspectives on human behavior.' B. Douglas Bernheim, Stanford UniversityTable of ContentsPreface; 1. Second-order decisions; 2. Deciding to opt; 3. Deciding to know; 4. Deciding to believe, 1: The case of climate change; 5. Deciding to believe – 2. In general; 6. Deciding inconsistently; 7. Deciding to consume – 1. In general; 8. Deciding to consume – 2. The case of social media; 9. Deciding by algorithm; 10. Deciding for oneself; Epilogue: 'Get drunk!'.

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Book SynopsisStraight Choices provides a fascinating introduction to the psychology of decision making, enhanced by discussion of relevant examples of decision problems faced in everyday life. Thoroughly revised and updated throughout, this edition provides an integrative account of the psychology of decision-making and shows how psychological research can help us understand our uncertain world. The book emphasizes the relationship between learning and decision-making, arguing that the best way to understand how and why decisions are made is in the context of the learning and knowledge acquisition which precedes them, and the feedback which follows. The mechanisms of learning and the structure of environments in which decisions are made are carefully examined to explore their impact on our choices. The authors then consider whether we are all constrained to fall prey to cognitive biases, or whether, with sufficient exposure, we can find optimal decision strategies and improve our decisionTrade Review‘This excellent book is a rare combination – an enjoyable read that beginners will like and a serious text that scholars will study’. - Daniel Kahneman, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, USA Table of ContentsPREFACEACKNOWLEDGEMENTS1. FALLING OFF THE STRAIGHT AND NARROW.2. DECISION QUALITY AND AN HISTORICAL CONTEXT3. STAGES OF JUDGMENT I: DISCOVERING, ACQUIRING AND COMBINING INFORMATION4. STAGES OF JUDGMENT II: FEEDBACK EFFECTS AND DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENTS5. APPRAISING PROBABILITY JUDGMENTS6. JUDGMENTAL HEURISTICS AND BIASES7. EXPLANATION-BASED DECISION MAKING8. ANALYSING DECISIONS I: A GENERAL FRAMEWORK9. ANALYSING DECISIONS II: PROSPECT THEORY AND PREFERENCE REVERSALS10. DECISIONS FROM EXPERIENCE11. DECISIONS ACROSS TIME12. LEARNING TO CHOOSE, CHOOSING TO LEARN13. OPTIMALITY AND EXPERTISE14. TWO SYSTEMS OF JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING?15. EMOTIONAL INFLUENCES ON DECISION MAKING16. GROUP DECISION MAKING17. APPLYING PSYCHOLOGICAL INSIGHTS TO THE WORLD OUTSIDE THE LABORATORY18. LEARNING TO MAKE GOOD DECISIONS: WHEN, HOW AND WHY (NOT)?REFERENCES

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Book SynopsisWinner of best smart thinking book 2022 (Business Book Awards)Guardian best books of 2021''Original, thought-provoking and a joy to read'' Tim Harford''Highly recommended. It''s not easy to become (more of) a scout, but it''s hard not to be inspired by this book'' Rutger BregmanWhen it comes to what we believe, humans see what they want to see. In other words, we have what Julia Galef calls a ''soldier'' mindset. From tribalism and wishful thinking, to rationalising in our personal lives and everything in between, we are driven to defend the ideas we most want to believe - and shoot down those we don''t.But if we want to get things right more often we should train ourselves to think more like a scout. Unlike the soldier, a scout''s goal isn''t to defend one side over the other. It''s to go out, survey the territory, and come back with as accurate a map as possible. Regardless of what they hope to be the case, aboTrade ReviewJulia Galef doesn't simply harangue us for not thinking clearly; she diagnoses why we do it, and suggests concrete ways to improve our rationality. This is a book that will make a real difference in how you think -- Sean Carroll, author of Something Deeply HiddenJulia Galef is an intellectual leader of the rationalist community, and in The Scout Mindset you will find an engaging, clearly written distillation of her very important accumulated wisdom on these topics -- Tyler Cowen, author of Big Business and The Great StagnationDrawing on her extensive knowledge of the scientific literature and of popular culture, Julia Galef explores the remarkable human capacity for self-deception - and shows us how we can catch ourselves in the act of fooling ourselves -- Philip Tetlock, author of SuperforecastingThe Scout Mindset offers an insightful, entertaining and genuinely useful guide to thinking more clearly -- Don Moore, author of Perfectly ConfidentAn engaging and enlightening account from which we all can benefit * Wall Street Journal *Highly recommended. It's not easy to become (more of) a scout, but it's hard not to be inspired by this book -- Rutger Bregman, bestselling author of Humankind and Utopia for RealistsWe know a lot about how flawed human reasoning is, but surprisingly little about how to repair it in our daily lives. Thankfully, Julia Galef is here to change that. With insights that are both sharp and actionable, her book picks up where Predictably Irrational left off. Reading it will teach you to think more clearly, see yourself more accurately, and be wrong a little less often -- Adam Grant, author of Originals and Give and Take, host of WorkLife podcastJulia understands human thinking with incredible clarity and she's a master at communicating that clarity to others through her writing and metaphors. I haven't stopped thinking about the scout mindset ever since I first heard Julia explain it -- Tim Urban, writer and creator of Wait But WhyJulia Galef is one of the smartest, most exciting voices not just in American rationalism, but in American writing period. She is consistently fascinating -- Johann Hari, international bestselling author of Stolen Focus and Lost ConnectionsJulia Galef, one of our foremost experts on identifying the problem of motivated reasoning and cognitive biases, has produced the best work to date on what to do about it, both personally to improve our lives and socially to make the world a more rational and reasonable place for all. A must-read for all who have trouble saying "I was wrong" and "I change my mind", which is all of us -- Michael Shermer, writer, founder of Skeptic, and New York Times bestselling author of The Moral ArcThe Scout Mindset is essential reading for understanding how the stories we tell ourselves sacrifice better decision-making in the long-term for a short-term boost to our egos . . . A must-read for anyone looking be more rational in their choices -- Annie Duke, author of Thinking in BetsMost books tell you what to think. This is something rarer, and more valuable: A book about how to think and how to learn, without the fear or favour that so often holds us back from inching closer to the truth. The beauty of The Scout Mindset demonstration is it is, itself, an example of the ethos it teaches. The delight it takes in questioning its own premises, and understanding the alternative arguments, will make you want to be a scout, too -- Ezra Klein, cofounder of Vox, author of Why We Are Polarized, and host of The Ezra Klein Show podcastI've learned more about how to think and reason well from Julia Galef than from almost anyone -- Dylan Matthews, senior correspondent at VoxAn engaging and enlightening account from which we all can benefit * Wall Street Journal *Highly recommended. It's not easy to become (more of) a scout, but it's hard not to be inspired by this book * Rutger Bregman, bestselling author of Humankind and Utopia for Realists *

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Book SynopsisGerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago. He is the author of several books on heuristics and decision making, including Reckoning with Risk.

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Book SynopsisThis powerful book introduces core critical thinking concepts and principles as an empowering problem-solving framework for every profession, course of study, and indeed every area of life. The Miniature Guide to Critical Thinking Concepts and Tools distills the groundbreaking work of Richard Paul and Linda Elder, targeting how to deconstruct thinking through the elements of reasoning and how to assess the quality of our thinking. The eighth edition of this guide further details the foundations of critical thinking and how they can be applied in instruction to improve teaching and learning at all levels; it also reveals how we can learn to identify and avoid egocentric and sociocentric thought, which lead to close-mindedness, self-deception, arrogance, hypocrisy, greed, selfishness, herd mentality, prejudice, and the like. With more than half a million copies sold, Richard Paul and Linda Elder’s bestselling book in the Thinker’s Guide Library is used in secondary and higher education courses and professional development seminars across the globe. In a world of conflicting information and clashing ideologies, this guide clears a path for advancing fairminded critical societies.Trade ReviewThe work of Linda Elder and Richard Paul is vital to the progress of our democratic society. Read this book, change your life, and in the process make the world a safe and saner place to live. -- Michael Shermer, publisher of Skeptic MagazineThe absolute and essential guide for learning a system and process for thinking critically in all areas of your life. -- Bryan Deptula, CEO, BKD LeadersPacked with more relevant information than any large textbook. Don't ever lose it, and refer to it often. -- Neal Fleisher, clinical professor, Boston UniversityA brief, but excellent introductory guide to the foundational concepts of critical thinking. -- Linda Tym, associate professor, Southern Adventist University

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Book SynopsisIn Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making psychologist and behavioural expert Gerd Gigerenzer reveals the secrets of fast and effective decision-making. A sportsman can catch a ball without calculating its speed or distance. A group of amateurs beat the experts at playing the stock market. A man falls for the right woman even though she''s ''wrong'' on paper. All these people succeeded by trusting their instincts - but how does it work? As Gerd Gigerenzer explains, in an uncertain world, sometimes we have to ignore too much information and rely on our brain''s ''short cut'', or heuristic. By explaining how intuition works and analyzing the techniques that people use to make good decisions - whether it''s in personnel selection or heart surgery - Gigerenzer will show you the hidden intelligence of the unconscious mind. ''Fascinating and provocative ... Gut Feelings may well be the recipe for a simpler, less stressful life''Trade ReviewFascinating and provocative … Gut Feelings may well be the recipe for a simpler, less stressful life * Sunday Times *Gigerenzer's writing is catchily optimistic and slyly funny … devillish -- Steven Poole * Guardian *

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Book Synopsis'An inspirational memoir from an extraordinary woman . . . A humbling, jaw-dropping read' Viv Groskop'This book will change the way you think. Forever' CosmopolitanDr Sabrina Cohen-Hatton has been a firefighter for eighteen years. She decides which of her colleagues rush into a burning building and how they confront the blaze. She makes the call to evacuate if she believes the options have been exhausted or that the situation has escalated beyond hope.Taking us to the very heart of firefighting, she immerses us in this extraordinary world; from scenes of devastation and crisis, through triumphs of bravery, to the quieter moments when she questions herself. Revealing her own story for the very first time, she recounts her years spent sleeping rough and her passion for a career that allows her to rescue others as she was never rescued herself.This book is the result of everything she has learnt about how we respond in our most extreme moments.'This book challenges assumptions about who firefighters are, and about what women can do' The GuardianTrade ReviewAn inspirational memoir from an extraordinary woman. The Heat of the Moment does for the fire service what Adam Kay’s This Is Going to Hurt did for the NHS. A humbling, jaw-dropping read which redefines what is possible in life * Viv Groskop *Gripping, heart-stopping and profoundly reassuring. Thank heavens for such courage. * Sue Black, author of All That Remains *A vivid reminder of the horrors that firefighters face daily - and the debt of gratitude society owes them . . . This book challenges assumptions about who firefighters are, and about what women can do. * The Guardian *[One of] the wonder women of our emergency services * Glamour *An immersive insight into a job which few of us could do, by a woman whose award-winning research into decision-making in the emergency services has transformed policy at a global level. * Stylist *

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Book SynopsisNancy S. Kim taught and researched the psychology of belief as Associate Professor and Director of Undergraduate Studies in the Department of Psychology at Northeastern University, USA.

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Book SynopsisA clear and practical review of the 50 most common thinking challenges everyone faces from day to day, with a full guide to the most accessible and practical solutions.Many of us find ourselves facing difficult work situations, day after day - often as a result of existing patterns of behaviour - or at the mercy of negative and intrusive thoughts. But such cycles can be broken, allowing you to approach problems and challenges in a more robust and sustainable way. Smart Thinking focuses on common thinking challenges we all face from time to time, both rational (such as problem-solving) and emotional (mental health issues, for example), while also offering an array of practical and realistic solutions. It explains the problems and highlights the best options to resolve them, while encouraging you to look differently at the circumstances around you, and then to develop new, and permanent, ways of tackling any challenges.From getting the best out of others

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Book SynopsisFirst, this book will change how you see the world. Then you will change how others see it.Trade Review‘Indispensable. This book provides an essential guide to the construction of better choices – for yourself, for other individuals and for society.’ -- Daniel Kahneman, author of Noise and Thinking, Fast and Slow‘Eric Johnson is an absolute giant – one of the pioneers of modern behavioural science, with an unmatched combination of theoretical sophistication, a firm moral core, and a keen practical sense. He’s a brilliant thinker, a terrific storyteller, and a fun, vivid writer. He’s a hero of mine, and I read everything he writes.’ -- Cass Sunstein, author of Nudge‘Illuminating… A strong argument for more thoughtfully presenting options to yield better choices.’ * Kirkus *‘Eric Johnson distills the modern science of decision-making with incomparable clarity and the most captivating stories. His book is a must-read for anyone who wants to know how we can help one another make wiser choices.’ -- Angela Duckworth, author of Grit‘Eric Johnson offers a powerful tool kit for designing better end-to-end decision-making processes. His deep insight and expertise shine through on every page.’ -- Jonah Berger, author of The Catalyst and Contagious‘This book explains human decision-making with the rare clarity and insight that only comes from a researcher at the top of their field. An essential read for anyone who wants to make better choices.’ -- Nir Eyal, author of Hooked and Indistractable‘Anyone serious about knowing how best to structure the features of an offered choice or how best to respond to the presence of those features needs to read this book.’ -- Robert Cialdini, author of Influence and Pre-Suasion‘Every choice you make – from the health plan you select to the sandwich you order for lunch – was designed by someone. The Elements of Choice brilliantly reveals the subtle yet powerful levers that influence your decisions.’ -- Carol Dweck, author of Mindset‘Eric Johnson is the world’s leading expert on choice architecture. No one is better qualified to map the invisible webs of influence that constrain all we do.’ -- Philip E. Tetlock, author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction‘The Elements of Choice is a must-read for anyone interested in the hidden forces that shape our daily decisions. And as one of the foremost scholars of judgment and decision making, Eric Johnson is the perfect person to write this important and engaging book.’ -- Katy Milkman, author of How to Change‘I love this book. It shows how you can be influenced, when making decisions, by the way the choices are presented to you. Do you think you made up your own mind about saving, spending or investing? Maybe you were subtly guided toward choices best for the financial institution, not for you. The Elements of Choice will open your eyes.’ -- Jane Bryant Quinn, author of How to Make Your Money Last‘The Elements of Choice is a manual for designers, policy-makers, and founders to understand how consumers choose. I hope it’ll be used to design smarter apps, menus, and policies that help us all choose better.’ -- Jon Stein, founder and chairman of Betterment‘An engaging and useful guide to the seemingly inconsequential factors that influence our choices. If you want to make better choices, this book is your chance to learn from a master choice architect.’ -- Barbara Mellers, George I. Heyman University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania‘Readers will be fascinated by this persuasive exploration.’ * Publishers Weekly *

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Book SynopsisWe make choices all the time - about trivial matters, about how to spend our money, about how to spend our time, about what to do with our lives. And we are also constantly judging the decisions other people make as rational or irrational. But what kind of criteria are we applying when we say that a choice is rational? What guides our own choices, especially in cases where we don''t have complete information about the outcomes? What strategies should be applied in making decisions which affect a lot of people, as in the case of government policy?This book explores what it means to be rational in all these contexts. It introduces ideas from economics, philosophy, and other areas, showing how the theory applies to decisions in everyday life, and to particular situations such as gambling and the allocation of resources.ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.Trade Reviewa spirited and efficient welcome for newcomers should brighten many minds already much immersed - make them newcomers again. * Sydney Afriat, University of Siena *Table of Contents1. Choice and desire ; 2. Reason and rationality ; 3. Racing and roulette ; 4. Gambling and insurance ; 5. Conflict and cooperation ; 6. Democracy and Dictatorship

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Book SynopsisVery Short Introductions: Brilliant, Sharp, Inspiring Everyone negotiates. Whenever any person, company, or country needs someone else to accomplish something, they must negotiate. Negotiation is essential for peace and international relations, but also for economically efficient trades and bargains in business, and for problem solving skills in workplaces, families, and interpersonal interactions.This Very Short Introduction provides a comprehensive and accessible review of both conceptual and behavioural approaches to the human process of negotiation. Carrie Menkel-Meadow draws on research in constituent fields of human psychology, diplomacy, law, business, anthropology, game theory, decision making, international relations, sociology, public policy, and economics, suggesting models for creative problem solving to often intractable problems. Considering that most people are tense and frightened of what they perceive to be scarce resource confrontations with opponents and competitors, Menkel-Meadow offers different ways to plan for and approach others to solve human problems and seek solutions that satisfy both parties. Alongside this, Menkel-Meadow summarises recent research on the variations of human behaviour, providing vivid examples from history and current affairs to solve some of the most difficult problems. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.Table of Contents1: When we need others to accomplish something 2: Frameworks of negotiation: winning for self or problem solving for all? 3: Contexts in negotiation 4: Behavioral choices in negotiation 5: Challenges to reaching negotiated agreements 6: Complex multi-party multi-issue negotiations 7: Ethical and legal issues in negotiation 8: The future of negotiation

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Book SynopsisWatch the excitement ripple through your classroom as students use their intellect to find out who committed the "crime" at your school. Enliven your students as they practice critical thinking skills. Students are often taught skills such as the scientific method, scientific research, critical thinking, making observations, analyzing facts, and drawing conclusions in isolation. Studying forensic science allows students to practice these skills and see theories put into practice by using circumstances that model real-life events, meanwhile letting students explore a variety of career options.This exciting unit includes: background information on forensics, exploration of careers in forensic science and law enforcement, a simulation involving a fire in the school library, and instructions for writing your own crime scene simulation. To crack the case, students examine evidence left at the scene, interview suspects (staff members), and use critical thinking to connect all of the clues and eliminate suspects. Students will feel like real investigators with this true-to-life simulation.Let your students solve more mysteries with Mystery Disease, Mystery Science, Detective Club, and The Great Chocolate Caper.Grades 5-8Trade ReviewThis book presents a highly engaging unit combining criminal investigation, careers in forensic science, and types of evidence. In the culminating activity, students and faculty participate in a simulation of a school-wide arson investigation. Critical analysis of evidence, inference in questioning suspects, determining reasonability of relevant information, and drawing conclusions are among the critical thinking skills honed by students as they work to crack the case and discover the true criminal. This workbook is so well thought out that if a teacher had the time and cooperation of the [school] staff to conduct the simulation, it would undoubtedly be an educational experience students would not only benefit from but also remember for a lifetime.,Tina Forester,Texas Association for the Gifted and Talented, 5/1/04Table of ContentsGeneral Information Information for the Instructor Lesson Plans Pre-Simulation Information Criminal Investigations Criminal Investigations Information Forensic Careers Forensic Career Presentation Forensic Career Worksheet Forensic Career Assignment All Kinds of Evidence Assignment Planning Guide Grading Rubric Crime Scene Simulation The Case of The Blazing Books Overview and Motive Preparing Materials Gathering Evidence Setting up the Labs Setting up the Scene Viewing the Crime Scene Student Procedures Questioning Procedures Teacher’s Role Examining Evidence Charging a Suspect Supporting Materials Chart of Roles Sample News Article Witness Role Description Suspect Role Description Suspect Evidence Request Suspect Handwriting Sample Suspect Identification Card Suspect and Witness Profiles Detective Report Forensic Laboratory Materials Evidence Request Card Evidence Log Blood Evidence Procedures Blood Report Procedures for All Other Labs Fingerprint Report Arson Report Shoe Print Report Hair Report Handwriting Report Creating Your Own Simulation Customizing the Simulation Appendix Arson Motives Fast Facts on Fires

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Book SynopsisThis text offers a wealth of diverse, intriguing applications to show where game theory works, where it doesn''t, and why. Accessible to all university students, the book conveys the power, appeal, and beauty of game-theoretic logic, emphasizing problem solving over answers.

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Book SynopsisWe find risks everywhere--from genetically modified crops, medical malpractice, and stem-cell therapy to intimacy, online predators, identity theft, inflation, and robbery. They arise from our own acts and they are imposed on us. In this Very Short Introduction, Baruch Fischhoff and John Kadvany draw on the sciences and humanities to explore and explain the many kinds of risk. Using simple conceptual frameworks from decision theory and behavioural research, they examine the science and practice of creating measures of risk, showing how scientists address risks by combining historical records, scientific theories, probability, and expert judgment.Risk: A Very Short Introduction describes what has been learned by cognitive scientists about how people deal with risks, applying these lessons to diverse examples, and demonstrating how understanding risk can aid choices in everyday life and public policies for health, safety, environment, finance, and many other topics. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.Table of Contents1. Risk decisions ; 2. Defining risks ; 3. Analyzing risks ; 4. Risk perceptions ; 5. Risk communication ; 6. Reconciling risks ; 7. Risk, culture and society

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"A New Statesman Best Book of the Academic Presses""A highly original and very persuasive book. . . .Carefully argued and fair-minded but forceful in its conclusions, Free Agents is interdisciplinary research at its best."---Joe Humphreys, Irish Times"Mitchell's compelling and absorbing book acts both as a synthesizing primer about evolution and a powerful argument for free will. Its importance and quality are undeniable. A bold, brilliant must-read that should reach a large audience." * Kirkus Reviews, starred review *"An eloquent defense of our common-sense understanding of the mind. . . . [E]xcellent."---Andrew Crumey, Wall Street Journal"[Mitchell] makes a powerful case that history of life, in all its complex grandeur, cannot be appreciated until we understand the evolution of agency—and then, in creatures of sufficient complexity, the evolution of conscious free will. . . . [Free Agents] builds an argument that is methodical and crisp, and cuts through years of disputation like a knife through cotton candy."---James Gleick, New York Review of Books"Provocative." * Publishers Weekly *"Mitchell’s naturalization of free will shows that it need not be some mysterious non-physical force, but instead a cognitive phenomenon in which all manner of influences. . .are integrated into decisions to act, formulated with varying degrees of conscious awareness (of genuine will, you might say). “You” don’t generate free will; rather, the mental processes of deliberation are a part of what makes you."---Philip Ball, Times Literary Supplement"Humans are not, says Kevin Mitchell, the playthings of predestination. Millennia of evolution means that our nervous systems have given us the wherewithal both to imagine and to predict. Mitchell explains how this power came about and why it matters." * New Statesman *"Two popular books. . . have breathed new life into the ancient debate over whether we have free will. In Free Agents, Kevin Mitchell argues that we do, and in Determined, Robert Sapolsky argues that we don’t. To be blunt, on the big issue at hand – Mitchell is right and Sapolsky is wrong. . . . [H]ow can the information in our brains come together to form a coherent and causally potent self? Mitchell offers a strikingly lucid evolutionary story of how such a self emerged. "---Oliver Waters, Three Quarks Daily"Mitchell persuasively develops a more modest conception of free will that entails the evolved ability to make real choices in the service of our goals—that is, to act for our own reasons. This carefully argued, information-dense book will put a dent in any intellectual predilection toward determinism that some readers may have. It certainly did mine."---Ronald Bailey, Reason"A challenge to neuro-reductionism. . . . As Mitchell explains the growth of agency across 12 penetrating and fluent chapters, they read not like a series of academic lectures but rather a stimulating conversation where a reader’s next question is anticipated and answered."---Peter Sterling, Current Biology"A sophisticated, scientific response to determinism. . . . [A] provocative and special contribution to the discourse on free will."---Stetson Thacker, Holodoxa"Ground-breaking. . . .A significant contribution to the free will debate." * Paradigm Explorer *"Mitchell’s retelling of life’s history turns out to be a fascinating exercise with relevance far beyond the free will debate. . . . Free Agents is a tightly argued and compelling case in favour of free will. Mitchell proves himself an able wordsmith who crams profound ideas in short sentences that benefit from reading and unpacking slowly. . . . [A] spectacular read."---Leon Vlieger, Inquisitive Biologist

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"This remarkable set of essays defines the role of imagination ingeneral education, arts education, aesthetics, literature, and thesocial and multicultural context.... The author argues for schoolsto be restructured as places where students reach out for meaningsand where the previously silenced or unheard may have a voice. Sheinvites readers to develop processes to enhance and cultivate theirown visions through the application of imagination and the arts.Releasing the Imagination should be required reading for alleducators, particularly those in teacher education, and for generaland academic readers." (Choice) "Maxine Greene, with her customary eloquence, makes an impassionedargument for using the arts as a tool for opening minds and forbreaking down the barriers to imagining the realities of worldsother than our own familiar cultures.... There is a strong rhythmto the thoughts, the arguments, and the entire sequence of essayspresented here." (American Journal of Education) "Maxine Greene, one of the greatest education philosophers of thelast half century, constantly reminds teachers that the arts andthe social imagination are central to humane and caringlearning.... Her work is a constant reminder that teaching is amoral profession and that children's imaginations are a treasure wecan neglect only at the peril of our future." (Review in Teacher byHerbert Kohl, senior fellow, Open Society Institute, New YorkCity) "Releasing the Imagination gives us a vivid portrait of thepossibilities of human experience and education's role in itsrealization. It is a welcome corrective to current pressures foreducational conformity." (Elliot W. Eisner, professor of educationand art, Stanford University) "Releasing the Imagination challenges all the cant and clichelittering the field of education today. It breaks through theroutine, the frozen, the numbing, the unexamined; it shocks thereader into new awareness." (William Ayers, associate professor,College of Education, University of Illinois, Chicago)Table of ContentsIntroduction: Narrative in the Making. CREATING POSSIBILITIES. 1. Seeking Contexts. 2. Imagination, Breakthroughs, and the Unexpected. 3. Imagination, Community, and the School. 4. Discovering a Pedagogy. 5. Social Vision and the Dance of Life. 6. The Shapes of Childhood Recalled. ILLUMINATIONS AND EPIPHANIES. 7. The Continuing Search for Curriculum. 8. Writing to Learn. 9. Teaching for Openings. 10. Art and Imagination. 11. Texts and Margins. COMMUNITY IN THE MAKING. 12. The Passions of Pluralism. 13. Standards, Common Learnings, and Diversity. 14. Multiple Voices and Multiple Realities.

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Book SynopsisThis Element discusses the main approaches to the measurement of belief. Epistemic approaches explain the measurement of belief by appeal to relations between belief states themselves, whereas decision-theoretic approaches appeal to relations between beliefs and desires in the production of choice and preference.

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Book SynopsisThis is a book that should set off needed conversations in every school and classroom and school board meetingand the dinner table. Sometimes I wanted to quarrel with the authors, and that's part of its genius. It always managed to provoke me to think and to engage with these dilemmas.Deborah Meier, Senior Scholar and Adjunct ProfessorNew York UniversityThe Mackenzies show us how to recognize moral dilemmas, employ guidelines for addressing them, and teach us how to resolve them on our own. A gift to educators, the educational profession, and to all who would behave ethically and professionally within it.Roland Barth, Educational ConsultantGuidance for navigating the ethical dilemmas that teachers face!Teachers deal with ethical issues on a regular basis, from confidentiality regarding student information to discipline to communication. As moral exemplars, educators need guidance for handling such challenges. Written byTrade Review"This is a book that should set off needed conversations in every school and classroom and school board meeting—and the dinner table. Sometimes I wanted to quarrel with the authors, and that′s part of its genius. It always managed to provoke me to think and to engage with these dilemmas." -- Deborah Meier, Senior Scholar and Adjunct Professor"Schools are full of situations fraught with ethical implications. The Mackenzies show us how to recognize moral dilemmas, employ guidelines for addressing them, and, by walking us through abundant yeasty cases, teach us how to resolve them on our own. A gift to educators, the educational profession, and to all who would behave ethically and professionally within it." -- Roland Barth, Educational ConsultantTable of ContentsPreface Acknowledgments About the Authors Part I. Thinking About Ethics 1. Engaging in Ethics 2. Ethical Behavior: Some General Principles Part II. Acting Ethically: Teachers and Their Constituents 3. The Essential Learning Relationship: Teachers and Students 4. Important Pieces of the Puzzle: Teachers and Parents Part III. Acting Ethically: Teachers and Their Colleagues 5. Trust and Respect: Teachers as Colleagues 6. The Sum of the Parts: Teachers on Collaborative Teams 7. Clash of Philosophies: The School Faculty 8. Clashing Codes: Professional Communities of Teachers Part IV. Acting Ethically: Teachers and Supervisors 9. Power and Authority: Teachers and Their Principals 10. The Teacher, Superintendent and School Board, and the Community 11. Summing Up Resource A. Workshop Outline: Tools for Teachers and Teacher Leaders Resource B. Examining Critical Events References Index

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Book SynopsisPresents eight keys - each a piece of a puzzle for transforming the K-12 education system of teaching and learning - to intentionally design tomorrow's schools so today's learners are prepared for success... and stand ready to create new industries, find new cures, and solve world problems.

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Book SynopsisThis shortguide will help you to understand what your decisions aremeant to achieve. It looks at the factors that influence the quality of thosedecisions and outlines the key actions to take in making the decision,implementing it and learning from it.

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"Economics may be the dismal science, but it provides essential language and concepts as we strive to balance needs, wants and resources."---Steven Mintz, Inside Higher Education

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Book SynopsisWhat is a fair distribution of resources and other goods when individuals are partly responsible for their achievements? This book develops a theory of fairness incorporating a concern for personal responsibility, opportunities and freedom. With a critical perspective, it makes accessible the recent developments in economics and philosophy that define social justice in terms of equal opportunities. It also proposes new perspectives and original ideas. The book separates mathematical sections from the rest of the text, so that the main concepts and ideas are easily accessible to non-technical readers. It is often thought that responsibility is a complex notion, but this monograph proposes a simple analytical framework that makes it possible to disentangle the different concepts of fairness that deal with neutralizing inequalities for which the individuals are not held responsible, rewarding their effort, respecting their choices, or staying neutral with respect to their responsibility sTrade ReviewFairness, Responsibility, and Welfare offers various important insights into the seemingly complex topic of distributive implications of holding people partly responsible for their achievements...the content of the book is easily attainable for a broader audience...it will be one of the more important references for both economists and philosophers working in the field of distributive justice. * Lars Schwettmann Journal of Social Choice and Welfare *Inquiries such as Fleurbaey's, which employ both formal and philosophical methods to explore distributional principles, are of great importance from all three perspectives. Fairness, Responsibility, and Welfare is essential reading for serious egalitarians. * Daniel M. Hausman, Ethics *Fleurbaey's monograph is a paradigmatic masterpiece for the fruitful combination of philosophy and the axiomatic method in an area of highest interest for the social sciences. * Andreas Tutic, Rationality, Markets and Morals *Impressive...an excellent contribution to the field of distributive justice * Kasper Lippert-Rasmussen, Economics and Philosophy *Fleurbaey's book is clearly written and successfully communicates to a broad audience while not sacrificing rigor. It provides a thorough account of the most recent developments in social choice theory at the same time as contributing innovations which develop this area in a beautiful and important way. * John Roemer, Elizabeth S. and A. Varick Professor of Political Science and Economics, Yale University *The role of personal responsibility is important for the foundations of justice, but the subject has not received the critical investigation it deserves. In this book, Marc Fleurbaey has gone a long distance in meeting this gap. This is a deeply illuminating contribution on a neglected aspect of welfare economics. * Amartya Sen, Thomas W. Lamont University Professor and Professor of Economics and Philosophy, Harvard, and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics 1998 *Table of ContentsIntroduction ; 1. Defining Fairness ; 2. Distributing Fairly ; 3. Introduction to Incentive Issues ; 4. Unequal skills ; 5. Income Redistribution ; 6. Risk, Insurance, and Option Luck ; 7. Fresh Starts ; 8. Utilitarian Reward ; 9. Inequalities of Opportunity and Social Mobility ; 10. Responsibility, Freedom, and Social Justice

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Book SynopsisIn our high technology society, there is a growing demand for a better understanding of decision making in high risk situations in order to improve selection, training and operational performance. Decision Making Under Stress presents a state-of-the-art review of psychological theory, in research and practice, on decision making in high pressure and emergency situations. It focuses on the experienced decision makers who deal with such risks, principally on flight decks, at civil emergencies, in industrial settings and military environments. The 29 chapters cover a wide range of perspectives and applications from aviation, military, industry and the emergency services. The authors, all international invited experts in their field, are based in research centers and universities from Europe, North America and Australia. Their common interest is in the theories and methods of a new research domain called NDM (naturalistic decision making). This volume comprises the edited contributioTrade Review’This collection presents a state-of-the-art review of psychological theory, in research and practice, on decision making in high-pressure and emergency situations.’ Business Horizons, USA ’...some very practical information...exceedingly well-referenced.’ Aviation, Space and Environmental MedicineTable of ContentsContents: Introduction; Theoretical Perspectives on NDM: The current status of the naturalistic decision making framework; In search of naturalistic decisions; Stress and naturalistic decision making: strengthening the weak links; Merging paradigms: decision making, management and cognitive control. Decisions in Civil Emergencies: Critical incident management simulation; A framework for building and testing models of recorded team decision making; Decision making patterns in major fire-fighting and rescue operations; Psychological research and development in the London Fire Brigade; Design of the natural: an engineering process for NDM; Head-mounted video recording: a methodology for studying NDM. Military Command Decisions: On-line coping with uncertainty: beyond the reduce, quantify and plug heuristic; Improving critical thinking; Team adaptation and co-ordination training; Dynamic decision making in non-routine situations; Surrender at Perevolochna: a case study of perspective and action control in decision making under stress; Enhancing effective decision making by information management techniques; Military decision support. Decisions on the Flight deck: Military pilot performance - dynamic decision making in its extreme; Understanding expert aviator judgment; Decision making training for aircrew; Selection for stressful jobs: is the defence mechanism test the solution?; Pilot mental workload and situational awareness - psychological models of the pilot. Analysing Decision Making Under Stress: Strategies for adapting to time pressure; Emergency decision making - a wider decision framework?; Decision making in complex situations: cognitive and motivational limitations; Differentiation and consolidation theory; Analyzing team skills; Toward an understanding of stress on organizational social systems in complex, dynamic, environments; Appendices.

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a huge range and FREE tracked UK delivery on ALL orders.

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Book SynopsisThe information in this book will provide board members with simple tools to become an effective member of the board, even in the first term. Board members are introduced to Values Governance system that incorporates community process techniques, curricular, and instructional innovations. This new model provides greater efficiency, effectiveness, and coherence in the governance of the board. With the completion of this survival guide, the new board member is ready to join the board with some skills in hand.Trade ReviewA 2001 Public Agenda survey of school administrators found that 69% of them felt that school board members micromanaged. Anecdotally, this continues as a problem today and likely explains much of our nation’s excessive superintendent turnover. Farrell, Nayfack, Smith & Wohlstetter (“One Size Does Not Fit All”) argue that school board micromanagement is seen as a contributing factor to the perceived failure of American education. Now Elected, Now What?: The Path to Successful School District Governance by Chuck Namit well describes the board’s governance role in a manner that both new and veteran members will appreciate. This is a welcome resource to help board members better understand their role and value to our education system. -- Steve Lamb, former Governance Consultant/Educator, California School Boards Association and Oregon School Boards AssociationChuck Namit has probably done as much or more research on school board governance than anyone else I know. Not only that, but he has taught it and lived it as a board trainer and as a school board director. All-in-all, Chuck Namit has developed a process that boards should consider if they are determined to improve achievement in their district. His work in this area will give them a solid foundation for improving the governance of the school district. Namit uses this book to describe various aspects of school governance and the latest thoughts regarding board decision-making and adds his contribution – Values Governance. -- Nicholas D. Caruso, Senior Staff Associate for Field Service and Coordinator of Technology, Connecticut Association of Boards of EducationAs a former University Professor of Educational Leadership I highly recommended Now Elected, Now What? The Path to Successful School District Governance. This publication provides valuable tools and an effective theoretical and hands-on practical foundation for any student who plans to work with non-profit organizations. This book may be appropriately utilized in many of the University level courses preparing graduates for both administrative and governance roles. -- David A. Steele Ed.D, retired Superintendent of North Thurston Public Schools, former Associate Professor of Educational Leadership at Seattle Pacific UniversityPowerFULL! An intense collection of practical and proven principles, tactics and strategies. Dive deep with any of the Values Governance elements, then advance enriched with a board warrior’s wisdom. Not for the mild at heart. Dedicated to those pursuing a legacy of excellence. -- Randy Black, Director of Member Relations, Colorado Association of School BoardsWe certainly did not have anything like this book when I was on the school board. It can help make board members real players in their districts and not just rubber stamps for the superintendent and administration. It makes being a board member a more challenging job because it shows what really should be done—and how to do it. -- Sam Hunt, Washington State Senator, former North Thurston Public Schools school board member, former Washington State House memberTable of ContentsForeword Preface Acknowledgments Introduction Part 1: Survival Manual for a Board Member Chapter 1: Traditional Governance System: Current Governance Method Chapter 2: Alternative Governance Systems: Some New Methods in Governance Chapter 3: Turning to a New Governance Model: Values Governance® System Chapter 4: Establishing Principles for Your Governance Chapter 5: Mountain Peaks of Governance: Developing the Sky Bridge of Monitoring Chapter 6: Board and CEO Leadership: Board Self-Assessment and Superintendent Evaluation Chapter 7: Four Phases of School-Community Engagement Stages Chapter 8: School Governance and District Leadership to Increase Student Achievement Chapter 9: Establishing a Communication Style and Policy Control Status for Your Governance Chapter 10: Energizing Community Engagement in Two-Way Governance Chapter 11: The New Look of the Values Governance® System in an Organization Part 2: Getting the Most Out of Your Board Service: A Field Manual for Board Members Chapter 12: Traditional Governance System: Planning and Implementation Timelines (Application-Opportunity A) Chapter 13: Alternative Governance Systems: New Methods in Governance (Application-Opportunity B) Chapter 14: Moving to a New Governance Model: Universal Principles of Governance (Chapter Application-Opportunity) Step 1: Values Governance® System Chapter 15: Case Study: Monitoring Process to Resolve Issues (Application-Opportunity C) Step 2: Values Governance® System Chapter 16: Applications of Board Self-Assessment and Superintendent Evaluation (Application-Opportunity D) Step 3: Values Governance® System Chapter 17: Checking and Charting Your School and Community Stages (Application-Opportunity E) Step 4: Values Governance® System Chapter 18: Case Study: Leadership Implementing a Research-based Curriculum (Application-Opportunity F) Step 5: Values Governance® System Chapter 19: Board Member Communication: Four Communication Styles (Application-Opportunity G) Step 6A: Values Governance® System Chapter 20: Knowing Your Governance Style: Implications for Better School Governance (Application-Opportunity H) Step 6B: Values Governance® System Chapter 21: High Performing Community Engagement Techniques (Application-Opportunity I) Step 7: Values Governance® System Chapter 22: Turning to the Values Governance® System (Application-Opportunity J) Step 8: Values Governance® System Conclusion Endnotes Glossary About the Author: Chuck Namit Index

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Book SynopsisEminently suited to classroom use as well as individual study, Roger Myerson’s introductory text provides a clear and thorough examination of the models, solution concepts, results, and methodological principles of noncooperative and cooperative game theory.Trade ReviewIn a clear, Myersonian writing style, this book systematically describes our state-of-the-art knowledge of game theory. Written as an introductory text, it looks at the subject from the viewpoint of a newcomer to the field, beginning with utility theory and arriving at the most sophisticated ideas discussed today. Myerson not only gives complete mathematical statements and proofs, but also supplies the intuitive arguments that motivate them...Because of its comprehensiveness, researchers and users of game theory can find descriptions of almost all special game theoretic topics and issues presented in "user friendly" style...It is very likely that Myerson's Game Theory will remain the main introductory text for many years to come. -- Ehud Kalai * Games and Economic Behavior *Exposing an applied mathematics field on a basic level poses a challenge to an author, namely, to find the proper mix of displaying the models, providing the motivation and presenting the mathematical results and derivations. This is even more true in a field like game theory, where the models are not universally acceptable as adequately depicting real applications. The author, in the text under review, is doing remarkably well. The models are displayed with enough details and explanations to generate motivation even in newcomers to the field...All in all, it is a very good elaborate introduction to game theory. -- Zvi Artstein * Mathematical Reviews *Myerson provides a good introduction to game theory, focusing on the 'generality and unity of game theory' rather than on its extensive applications. After a brief overview of Bayesian decision theory, noncooperative and cooperative models of games are explored in the context of their solutions, results, and guiding methodological principles. The relative merits of the extensive form and the strategic form of a game are illustrated, which lead naturally into an analysis of equilibria for each representation. Special extensions are discussed, including games with communication, repeated games, and noncooperative games that introduce the elements of bargaining and coalitions...The book has interesting and challenging problem sets for each chapter as well as a bibliography for students who want to study in more depth specific topics in game theory. * Choice *A very well-written introduction to game theory. * American Mathematical Monthly *Table of ContentsPreface 1. Decision-Theoretic Foundations 1.1 Game Theory, Rationality, and Intelligence 1.2 Basic Concepts of Decision Theory 1.3 Axioms 1.4 The Expected-Utility Maximization Theorem 1.5 Equivalent Representations 1.6 Bayesian Conditional-Probability Systems 1.7 Limitations of the Bayesian Model 1.8 Domination 1.9 Proofs of the Domination Theorems Exercises 2. Basic Models 2.1 Games in Extensive Form 2.2 Strategic Form and the Normal Representation 2.3 Equivalence of Strategic-Form Games 2.4 Reduced Normal Representations 2.5 Elimination of Dominated Strategies 2.6 Multiagent Representations 2.7 Common Knowledge 2.8 Bayesian Games 2.9 Modeling Games with Incomplete Information Exercises 3. Equilibria of Strategic-Form Games 3.1 Domination and Ratonalizability 3.2 Nash Equilibrium 3.3 Computing Nash Equilibria 3.4 Significance of Nash Equilibria 3.5 The Focal-Point Effect 3.6 The Decision-Analytic Approach to Games 3.7 Evolution. Resistance. and Risk Dominance 3.8 Two-Person Zero-Sum Games 3.9 Bayesian Equilibria 3.10 Purification of Randomized Strategies in Equilibria 3.11 Auctions 3.12 Proof of Existence of Equilibrium 3.13 Infinite Strategy Sets Exercises 4. Sequential Equilibria of Extensive-Form Games 4.1 Mixed Strategies and Behavioral Strategies 4.2 Equilibria in Behavioral Strategies 4.3 Sequential Rationality at Information States with Positive Probability 4.4 Consistent Beliefs and Sequential Rationality at All Information States 4.5 Computing Sequential Equilibria 4.6 Subgame-Perfect Equilibria 4.7 Games with Perfect Information 4.8 Adding Chance Events with Small Probability 4.9 Forward Induction 4.10 Voting and Binary Agendas 4.11 Technical Proofs Exercises 5. Refinements of Equilibrium in Strategic Form 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Perfect Equilibria 5.3 Existence of Perfect and Sequential Equilibria 5.4 Proper Equilibria 5.5 Persistent Equilibria 5.6 Stable Sets 01 Equilibria 5.7 Generic Properties 5.8 Conclusions Exercises 6. Games with Communication 6.1 Contracts and Correlated Strategies 6.2 Correlated Equilibria 6.3 Bayesian Games with Communication 6.4 Bayesian Collective-Choice Problems and Bayesian Bargaining Problems 6.5 Trading Problems with Linear Utility 6.6 General Participation Constraints for Bayesian Games with Contracts 6.7 Sender-Receiver Games 6.8 Acceptable and Predominant Correlated Equilibria 6.9 Communication in Extensive-Form and Multistage Games Exercises Bibliographic Note 7. Repeated Games 7.1 The Repeated Prisoners Dilemma 7.2 A General Model of Repeated Garnet 7.3 Stationary Equilibria of Repeated Games with Complete State Information and Discounting 7.4 Repeated Games with Standard Information: Examples 7.5 General Feasibility Theorems for Standard Repeated Games 7.6 Finitely Repeated Games and the Role of Initial Doubt 7.7 Imperfect Observability of Moves 7.8 Repeated Wines in Large Decentralized Groups 7.9 Repeated Games with Incomplete Information 7.10 Continuous Time 7.11 Evolutionary Simulation of Repeated Games Exercises 8. Bargaining and Cooperation in Two-Person Games 8.1 Noncooperative Foundations of Cooperative Game Theory 8.2 Two-Person Bargaining Problems and the Nash Bargaining Solution 8.3 Interpersonal Comparisons of Weighted Utility 8.4 Transferable Utility 8.5 Rational Threats 8.6 Other Bargaining Solutions 8.7 An Alternating-Offer Bargaining Game 8.8 An Alternating-Offer Game with Incomplete Information 8.9 A Discrete Alternating-Offer Game 8.10 Renegotiation Exercises 9. Coalitions in Cooperative Games 9.1 Introduction to Coalitional Analysis 9.2 Characteristic Functions with Transferable Utility 9.3 The Core 9.4 The Shapkey Value 9.5 Values with Cooperation Structures 9.6 Other Solution Concepts 9.7 Colational Games with Nontransferable Utility 9.8 Cores without Transferable Utility 9.9 Values without Transferable Utility Exercises Bibliographic Note 10. Cooperation under Uncertainty 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Concepts of Efficiency 10.3 An Example 10.4 Ex Post Inefficiency and Subsequent Oilers 10.5 Computing Incentive-Efficient Mechanisms 10.6 Inscrutability and Durability 10.7 Mechanism Selection by an Informed Principal 10.8 Neutral Bargaining Solutions 10.9 Dynamic Matching Processes with Incomplete Information Exercises Bibliography Index

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