Arms negotiation and control Books

Book SynopsisAfter many years in the little-known world of back-channel mediation, helping sworn adversaries to prevent, manage or resolve conflict, Pierre Hazan felt compelled to re-examine the acute practical and ethical dilemmas that affected his work in Bosnia, Ukraine, the Sahel and the Central African Republic. What is the mediator’s responsibility when two belligerents conclude a peace agreement to the detriment of a third? Should mediators never be party to ‘ethnic cleansing’, even if it saves lives? Is a fragile peace worth sacrificing justice for—or will that sacrifice fuel another cycle of violence? In an increasingly dystopian world, Negotiating with the Devil offers both practical guidelines and a moral compass for mediators whose field of action has transformed dramatically. We have gone from soft to hard power; from ‘peace dividends’ to war in Europe; from the end of one Cold War to a new East–West confrontation in Ukraine; from Pax Americana to a multipolar world; from the dream of an all-powerful UN to the organisation’s marginalisation. Against this tapestry, Hazan sheds light on the complex work of those steering peace negotiations, blending vivid first-hand observation with sharp insights into the psychology of compromise as a first step towards peace.Trade Review‘Analyses with finesse what this quest for dialogue means in an increasingly chaotic world where the West is no longer hegemonic.’ * Le Monde *‘Revisits the last thirty years in the theatre of mass crimes from Bosnia to the Sahel, from Ukraine to Afghanistan.’ * Liberation *‘‘Lifts the veil on the dilemmas and pitfalls of mediation in armed conflicts.’ * Le Figaro *‘An enlightening and stimulating book on mediation in armed conflicts.’ * Le Temps *‘Former journalist, and now advisor to the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue in Geneva, Pierre Hazan has written Negotiating with the Devil. In this stimulating opus, the author examines mediation in times of war.’ * Le Croix *‘An engrossing look at the moral dilemmas and shifting political imperatives in conflict mediation. With his usual uncompromising honesty, and drawing on his rich personal experience as a mediator, Hazan eschews easy answers and bright lines in considering when to talk with the most evil forces, and when compromise and neutrality can become complicity.’ * Reed Brody, author of To Catch a Dictator *'Fast paced in style yet profound in substance, this is an important book and also an excellent read ... Hazan deals with the troublesome complexities in an admirably clear way. This book deserves the widest audience– not just among experts and practitioners, but among general readers too. Hazan’s learning, experiences and style of writing means both groups will be amply rewarded.' -- Andrew Gilmour, former UN Assistant Secretary General for Human Rights

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Book SynopsisDeception reveals how Pakistan built a nuclear arsenal with US aid money and sold the technology to countries hostile to the West, while giving shelter to the resurgent Taliban and al-Qaeda. It also reveals the much larger deception: how every American administration from Jimmy Carter to George W. Bush has actively condoned Pakistan's nuclear activity, destroying and falsifying evidence provided by US and Western intelligence agencies, lying about Pakistan's intentions and capability, and facilitating the spread of the very weapons we so fear terrorists will obtain. This definitive book is the essential account of our time.Trade ReviewAnyone interested in South Asia and the wider subject of nuclear proliferation - or who simply enjoys a gripping tale - should read this book. * Daily Telegraph *A richly reported work of investigative journalism. * Los Angeles Times *Simultaneously astonishing, maddening and absolutely frightening * Kirkus *The disclosures in this book ... are nothing short of stunning. * The Times of India *

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Book SynopsisExamining the reasoning and deterrence consequences of regional power nuclear strategies, this book demonstrates that these strategies matter greatly to international stability and it provides new insights into conflict dynamics across important areas of the world such as the Middle East, East Asia, and South Asia.Trade ReviewWinner of the 2015 Best Book, International Security Studies Section of the International Studies Association "Narang adds importantly to the scholarly understanding of nuclear posture in a way that can inform policy. He studies an important topic, shatters false assumptions, provides insightful and useful new conceptual categories, offers apparently powerful theoretical explanations of important behaviors, provides a valuable set of case studies, and opens doors for additional scholarly research... The many avenues for additional research it suggests and worrisome possibilities it surfaces testify to the analytic strength and policy ambition of this important book."--Douglas B. Shaw, Arms Control Today "Narang explores an understudied aspect of nuclear strategy and doctrine. Rejecting conventional scholarly thinking that nuclear weapons have an inherent ability to deter conflict, Narang examines the nuclear postures of Pakistan, India, China, Israel, South Africa, and France."--Choice "Finally, we have a book on proliferation that is rooted in the discipline of Political Science with persuasive explanatory powers and great analytical value."--Michael Krepon, Arms Control Wonk "This book fills a gaping hole in the existing literature."--Jacques Hymans, Political Science Quarterly "Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era impressively advances scholarship on nuclear proliferation and its consequences."--Dinshaw Mistry, Perspectives on Politics "With its combination of theoretical ambition, empirical rigor, and lucid writing, Narang's book deserves a place on the strategist's bookshelf alongside Brodie, Schelling, Jervis, Betts, and other classics."--Todd S. Sechser, Journal of Strategic StudiesTable of ContentsList of Figures and Tables vii Acknowledgments ix Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Chapter 2 The Sources of Regional Power Nuclear Postures: Posture Optimization Theory 13 Chapter 3 Pakistan 55 Chapter 4 India 94 Chapter 5 China 121 Chapter 6 France 153 Chapter 7 Israel 179 Chapter 8 South Africa 207 Chapter 9 Deterring Unequally I: A Large-n Analysis 222 Chapter 10 Deterring Unequally II: Regional Power Nuclear Postures and Crisis Behavior 253 Chapter 11 Conclusion 299 Bibliography 313 Index 333

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"Graham's book is both a memoir and an excellent history of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, with which he was involved for more than 30 years. . . . [I]t is an intimate history of events in which he was a major player." * Choice *"The SALT, the START, the ABM—Graham had a role in them all, and his detailed descriptions of the skirmishes among presidents, cabinet secretaries, and members of Congress through six White House administrations make for a comprehensive history of American arms control." * Publishers Weekly *"Provides a fascinating composite picture of the limits and possibilities of the legal-diplomatic approach to security and arms control. Graham and his colleagues were constantly forced to maneuver between their determined Soviet counterparts and the equally strong-willed politicians and bureaucrats in Washington. . . . Also illuminating are his chapters on the failed SALT II during the Carter and Reagan years and the rise of hard-line critics of arms control, showing the origins of the split in American strategic thinking that continues today. More optimistically, Graham concludes by pointing to the most lasting arms control success: the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which made the acquisition of nuclear weapons an act of international outlawry." -- G. John Ikenberry * Foreign Affairs *"[This book] is a very important historical document and will undoubtedly be consulted by historians of arms control and American foreign policy in the late twentieth century. Students of bureaucratic politics and organizational behavior will also find in this book a rich mine of ase study material." * Political Science Quarterly *Table of ContentsForeword by Paul H. Nitze Acknowledgments Prologue 1. Politics, Louisville and Washington, D.C. 2. Chemical and Biological Weapons 3. SALT I 4. SALT II, Part One: The Nixon-Ford Years 5. SALT II, Part Two: The Carter Years 6. The Reagan Revolution and the INF and START Treaties 7. The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty 8. Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty 9. Survival of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency 10. Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty 11. Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 12. NPT Aftermath and the End of the ACDA Epilogue Conclusions Glossary Index

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"These essays make an invaluable contribution to understanding 'how statesmen think.' The book is strongly recommended for students and researchers in international relations." * Choice *"Robert Jervis is one of those rare scholars of International Relations whose work is path-breaking and enduring in multiple research areas, ranging from nuclear deterrence to political psychology, from intelligence to complexity theory. . . . That this volume brings together twelve of Jervis's previously published essays on political psychology and international relations is a boon to scholars and practitioners alike."---Balkan Devlen, International AffairsTable of ContentsAcknowledgments ix Introduction 1 I Political Psychology 13 1 Understanding Beliefs 15 2 The Drunkard's Search 40 II Heuristics and Biases 61 3 Representativeness, Foreign Policy Judgments, and Theory-Driven Perceptions 63 4 Prospect Theory: The Political Implications of Loss Aversion 85 III Political Psychology And International Relations Theory 105 5 Signaling and Perception: Projecting Images and Drawing Inferences 107 6 Political Psychology Research and Theory: Bridges and Barriers 125 7 Why Intelligence and Policymakers Clash 148 8 Identity and the Cold War 169 IV Psychology And National Security 189 9 Deterrence and Perception 191 10 Psychology and Crisis Stability 216 11 Domino Beliefs 234 12 Perception, Misperception, and the End of the Cold War 261 Index 281

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Book SynopsisRobert Jervis argues here that the possibility of nuclear war has created a revolution in military strategy and international relations. He examines how the potential for nuclear Armageddon has changed the meaning of war, the psychology of...Trade ReviewA comprehensive analysis that thrusts Jervis into the front ranks of nuclear essayists. * Kirkus Reviews *A masterful book by one of America's preeminent strategists.... What the nuclear revolution has done is magnify in force and compress in time imperatives that were present in the pre-nuclear era; even the pursuit of unlimited victory was unrealistic. Jervis takes us through those implications in prose so lucid we feel we have known them all along. * Foreign Affairs *

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Book SynopsisAre nuclear arsenals safe from cyber-attack? Could terrorists launch a nuclear weapon through hacking? Are we standing at the edge of a major technological challenge to global nuclear order? These are among the many pressing security questions addressed in Andrew Futter’s ground-breaking study of the cyber threat to nuclear weapons. Hacking the Bomb provides the first ever comprehensive assessment of this worrying and little-understood strategic development, and it explains how myriad new cyber challenges will impact the way that the world thinks about and manages the ultimate weapon. The book cuts through the hype surrounding the cyber phenomenon and provides a framework through which to understand and proactively address the implications of the emerging cyber-nuclear nexus. It does this by tracing the cyber challenge right across the nuclear weapons enterprise, explains the important differences between types of cyber threats, and unpacks how cyber capabilities will impact strategic thinking, nuclear balances, deterrence thinking, and crisis management. The book makes the case for restraint in the cyber realm when it comes to nuclear weapons given the considerable risks of commingling weapons of mass disruption with weapons of mass destruction, and argues against establishing a dangerous norm of “hacking the bomb.” This timely book provides a starting point for an essential discussion about the challenges associated with the cyber-nuclear nexus, and will be of great interest to scholars and students of security studies as well as defense practitioners and policy makers.Trade ReviewA compelling analysis of how information systems associated with nuclear weapons might be vulnerable, what adversaries might do with such vulnerabilities and what all this might mean for strategic stability. * Survival *In this outstanding survey, Andrew Futter explores how the 'cyber challenge' might interact with the nuclear enterprise in general, and nuclear deterrence in particular. . . . To his credit, Futter avoids the hyperbole often used to characterize the cyber threat. His two-level characterization of the cyber challenge (i.e., context and operations) also brings analytical clarity to a subject that lacks a common taxonomy. * The Nonproliferation Review *Futter’s valuable book surveys the new dangers and also considers how states might deter cyberattacks on critical infrastructure. He stresses the importance of securing sensitive nuclear information and of keeping control systems as simple as possible and separating them from other networks. * Foreign Affairs *Will resonate well with those interested in nuclear weapons and cyber threats alike. For all others, the content serves as a well-researched point of reference for the intersection of these two ever-present topics in the modern security landscape. * Proceedings *This book is necessary, it is useful, it illustrates where the errors and the loop holes are. Will it actually save us from our selves? Who knows, but hopefully some of the more basic ways of doing so could perhaps be tightened up? * Irish Tech News *Introduces an important puzzle at an extremely relevant time . . . has the potential to be a significant contribution to our limited understanding of the impact of cyber operations on nuclear stability. * H-Diplo *Futter’s Hacking the Bomb is a must-read for any policymaker and defense theorist. The cyber domain touches everything, and defense professionals must integrate it into all policies. * H-War *Futter’s book reminds us that the world needs norms, for cyber activities in general and for the nuclear-cyber relationship in particular. * H-War *Table of ContentsForeword by The Rt. Hon. Lord Browne of Ladyton Acknowledgments Introduction: WarGames Redux? Part 1: The Nature of the Challenge 1. What Exactly Do We Mean by the Cyber Challenge? 2. How and Why Might Nuclear Systems Be Vulnerable? Part 2: What Might Hackers Do to Nuclear Systems? 3. Stealing Nuclear Secrets 4. Could Cyberattcks Lead to Nuclear Use or Stop Systems from Working? Part 3: The Cyber-Nuclear Nexus at the Strategic Level 5. Cyberdeterrence, Nuclear Weapons, and Managing Strategic Threats 6. A Cyber-Nuclear Security Dilemma, Nuclear Stability, and Crisis Management Part 4: Challenges for Our Cyber-Nuclear Future7. Nuclear Weapons Modernization, Advanced Conventional Weapons, and the Future Global Nuclear Environment Conclusion:Managing Our Cyber-Nuclear Future Bibliography Index About the Author

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Book SynopsisThe Cold War did not culminate in World War III as so many in the 1950s and 1960s feared, yet it spawned a host of military engagements that affected millions of lives. This book is the first comprehensive, multinational overview of military affairs during the early Cold War.

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Book SynopsisIn 2017, North Korea shocked the world: test-flying a missile capable of reaching the US, exploding the most powerful nuclear device tested anywhere in a quarter-century, and declaring its nuclear deterrent complete. Today, Kim Jong Un’s growing nuclear stockpile represents a grave threat to international security. But this programme means more to him than world glory. State propaganda calls it the ‘treasured sword’: Kim is determined to keep ruling, and he sees his nukes as the key to regime survival. Kim Jong Un and the Bomb explores the history of North Korea’s nuclear weapons development, its present power, and the prospects of containing Kim’s arsenal. This book confronts us with a nuclear-armed North Korea that is not going anywhere, and reveals what this means for the US, South Korea and the world. Ankit Panda is an award-winning writer and international security expert. He is Adjunct Senior Fellow in the Defense Posture Project at the Federation of American Scientists, and a senior editor at The Diplomat. He lives in New York.Trade Review‘[Panda’s] deeply informed book explains as much as is publicly known about how Pyongyang developed nuclear weapons.’ -- Foreign Affairs‘An extensive and exhaustive map of Pyongyang’s journey to a nuclear deterrent that will stand the test of time.’ -- NK News‘Panda, a noted international security analyst, discusses each step the North Korean regime took to build its stockpile, integrating his narrative with accounts of the diplomatic strategies successive American administrations adopted first to prevent the North from weaponizing the atom and then to slow progress once the Kims had succeeded.’ -- The New York Times'North Korea's quest for nuclear weapons didn't begin in 2017. "Kim Jong Un and the Bomb" meticulously lays out how we got here -- and what lies ahead. It should be required reading for understanding the motivations and machinations behind Kim's destabilising mission.' -- Jean Lee, former AP Pyongyang bureau chief, and director of the Center for Korean History and Public Policy, Wilson Center'One of the best volumes available to provide deep insights into the situation on the Korean Peninsula and the long cycle of danger--openings--progress--shattered hope. Worthy of study!' -- Retd U.S. Army Gen. Vincent K. Brooks, commander of UN Command, U.S. Forces Korea and U.S.-South Korea Combined Forces Command, 2016-18'A timely, balanced and comprehensive overview of North Korea's path to becoming a nuclear power, and what this means for the world. Panda shows that this extraordinary story is immensely important, but--despite bizarre episodes and characters--not remotely funny.' -- Kerry Brown, Director of the Lau China Institute, King's College London

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Book SynopsisSanctions have enormous consequences. Especially when imposed by a country with the economic influence of the United States, sanctions induce clear shockwaves in both the economy and political culture of the targeted state, and in the everyday lives of citizens. But do economic sanctions induce the behavioral changes intended? Do sanctions work in the way they should? To answer these questions, the authors of How Sanctions Work highlight Iran, the most sanctioned country in the world. Comprehensive sanctions are meant to induce uprisings or pressures to change the behavior of the ruling establishment, or to weaken its hold on power. But, after four decades, the case of Iran shows the opposite to be true: sanctions strengthened the Iranian state, impoverished its population, increased state repression, and escalated Iran's military posture toward the U.S. and its allies in the region. Instead of offering an 'alternative to war,' sanctions have become a cause of war. Consequently, How Sanctions Work reveals how necessary it is to understand how sanctions really work.Trade Review"There is no shortage of publications on the Iran sanctions, but it is rare to see such detailed, serious work on this topic by highly knowledgeable scholars. How Sanctions Work introduces a wealth of information and perspectives not generally found in the existing Western academic literature."—Joy Gordon, author of Invisible War: The United States and the Iraq Sanctions"A vital study of the most tragic case in the recent history of economic sanctions. Bajoghli, Nasr, Salehi-Isfahani, and Vaez powerfully demonstrate how large the gap between the severe material effects and the limited political efficacy of sanctions against Iran has grown."—Nicholas Mulder, author of The Economic Weapon: The Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War"An indispensable book on sanctions' impacts in Iran, How Sanctions Work, opens a window into the fraught, little-understood, but ubiquitous and hugely consequential practice that seems to have supplanted diplomacy in current foreign policy and international relations. This volume shifts our understandings of what sanctions do—in Iran and beyond."—Arzoo Osanloo, author of Forgiveness Work: Mercy, Law, and Victims' Rights in Iran"For the analysts in Washington and Tehran newly evaluating sanctions and their effects, How Sanctions Work is a valuable resource. By centering the targeted country in the discussion of sanctions efficacy, Bajoghli, Nasr, Salehi-Isfahani, and Vaez demonstrate what a case study on sanctions should look like."—Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, Responsible StatecraftTable of ContentsIntroduction: The Invisible War 1. When Society Is Sanctioned 2. When Politics Is Sanctioned 3. When Iran Was Sanctioned 4. When an Economy Is Sanctioned 5. What Sanctions Cost the United States 6. What Sanctions Cost Iran—and the World Conclusion: Permanent Siege

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Book SynopsisA reevaluation of conflict thresholds in the context of complex cyber, conventional, and nuclear warThe return of great power competition has renewed concerns about managing escalation, lest a minor crisis inadvertently spiral into nuclear war. This has become apparent during the war between Russia and Ukraine, as Western aid for Ukraine has been predicated on avoiding Russian escalation. The New Calculus of Escalation updates our understanding of conflict escalation dynamics for the twenty-first century with the goal of reducing the possibility of a catastrophic war. To improve mutual understanding among states, Libicki rethinks conflict thresholds and exit ramps that manage escalation. During the Cold War, there were two critical thresholdsone between peace and war, and one between conventional war and nuclear war. But ongoing developments in cyber and other advanced military technologies threaten command and control and blur the old thresholds. Military strategists, international relations scholars, and graduate students will benefit from this book's cogent analytic framework in shaping future debates.

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Book SynopsisA comprehensive and authoritative account of the global movement to ban landmines. This text examines and draws lessons from the "Ottawa Process" that culminated in December 1997 when over 120 states signed a convention to ban the use, sale and production of landmines.Table of ContentsPreface. Contributors. Abbreviations. 1: Maxwell A. Cameron, Robert J. Lawson, and Brian W. Tomlin: To Walk Without Fear. Part One: The Global Movement for a Ban. 2: Jody Williams and Stephen Goose: The International Campaign to Ban Landmines. 3: Valerie Warmington and Celina Tuttle: The Canadian Campaign. 4: Philippe Chabasse: The French Campaign. 5: Noel Stott: The South African Campaign. 6: Stuart Maslen: The Role of the International Committee of the Red Cross. 7: Jerry White and Ken Rutherford: The Role of the Landmine Survivors Network. 8: Alex Vines: The Crisis of Anti-Personnel Mines. 9: Robert G. Gard, Jr: The Military Utility of Anti-Personnel Mines. Part Two: The International Response. 10: Robert J. Lawson, Mark Gwozdecky, Jill Sinclair, and Ralph Lysyshyn: The Ottawa Process and the International Movement to Ban Anti-Personnel Mines. 11: Brian W. Tomlin: On a Fast Track to a Ban: The Canadian Policy Process. 12: Mary Wareham: Rhetoric and Policy Realities in the United States. 13: David Long and Laird Hindle: Europe and the Ottawa Process. 14: J. Marshall Beier and Ann Denholm Crosby: Harnessing Change for Continuity: The Play of Political and Economic Forces Behind the Ottawa Process. 15: Thomas Hajnoczi, Thomas Desch, and Deborah Chatsis: The Ban Treaty. 16: Don Hubert: The Challenge of Humanitarian Mine Clearance. Part Three: Legacies of the Ottawa Process. 17: Richard Price: Compliance with International Norms and the Mines Taboo. 18: Miguel de Larrinaga and Claire Turenne Sjolander: (Re)presenting Landmines from Protector to Enemy: The Discursive Framing of New Multilateralism. 19: Michael Dolan and Chris Hunt: Negotiating in the Ottawa Process. 20: Maxwell A. Cameron: Democratization of Foreign Policy: The Ottawa Process as a Model. 21: Lloyd Axworthy: Towards a New Multilateralism. Appendix A List of Signatories to and Ratifications of the Ottawa Convention. Appendix B The Ottawa Convention. Index

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Book SynopsisTrade ReviewThis creative and well-researched book convincingly shows that relatively weak states can coerce stronger superpowers by threatening to build nuclear weapons. It teaches us that having the mere capacity to make nuclear weapons—known as 'nuclear latency'—can shape international relations. Volpe's book is essential reading for anyone interested in nuclear proliferation, coercion, or crisis bargaining. * Matthew Fuhrmann, Professor of Political Science and Presidential Impact Fellow, Texas A&M University *Tristan Volpe has written a fascinating book exploring how states use the potential to acquire nuclear weapons, known as nuclear latency, to gain influence in international politics. He theorizes the existence of a Goldilocks Zone where states with just enough nuclear latency can both issue threats and make assurances, and tests his theory across a wide range of case studies, from Japan to Iran. The in-depth cases are interesting, well-written, and strongly support his argument. I highly recommend this to those interested in international politics, and especially in issues surrounding nuclear proliferation and nuclear weapons. * Michael C. Horowitz, Professor of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania *Leveraging Latency reminds us that even hypothetical military capabilities can be used as bargaining power. But as Volpe elegantly explains, countries must perform a delicate balancing act to extract real concessions from military potential. His rich case studies illuminate the strategic logic of nuclear latency, revealing the hidden dilemmas and tradeoffs of bargaining over nuclear programs. Students of coercive diplomacy and nuclear proliferation will find this book indispensable. * Todd S. Sechser, Pamela Feinour Edmonds and Franklin S. Edmonds, Jr. Discovery Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of Virginia *Table of ContentsChapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: A Theory of Compellence with Nuclear Latency Chapter 3: Japan Chapter 4: West Germany Chapter 5: North Korea Chapter 6: Iran Chapter 7: Conclusion Notes References Index

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Book SynopsisCold War Statesmen Confront the Bomb: Nuclear Diplomacy Since 1945 is a path-breaking work that uses biographical techniques to test one of the most important and widely debated questions in international politics: Did the advent of the nuclear bomb prevent the Third World War? Many scholars and much conventional wisdom assumes that nuclear deterrence has prevented major power war since the end of the Second World War; this remains a principal tenet of US strategic policy today. Others challenge this assumption, and argue that major war would have been `obsolete'' even without the bomb. This book tests these propositions by examining the careers of ten leading Cold War statesmen--Harry S Truman; John Foster Dulles; Dwight D. Eisenhower; John F. Kennedy; Josef Stalin; Nikita Krushchev; Mao Zedong; Winston Churchill; Charles De Gaulle; and Konrad Adenauer--and asking whether they viewed war, and its acceptability, differently after the advent of the bomb. The book''s authors argue almoTrade Reviewexcellent and scholarly collection * Lawrence Freedman, TLS *Table of ContentsIntroduction by Ernest May ; 1. 'War No Longer Has Any Logic Whatever': Dwight D. Eisenhower and the Thermonuclear Revolution ; 2. Longing for International Control, Banking on American Superiority: Harry S Truman's Approach to Nuclear Energy ; 3. Stalin and the Nuclear Age ; 4. John Foster Dulles' Nuclear Schizophrenia ; 5. Bear Any Burden?: John F. Kennedy and Nuclear Weapon ; 6. The Nuclear Education of Nikita Khrushchev ; 7. Before the Bomb and After: Winston Churchill and the Use of Force ; 8. Between 'Paper' and 'Real' Tigers: Mao's View of Nuclear Weapons ; 9. Charles De Gaulle and the Nuclear Revolution ; 10. Konrad Adenauer: Defence Diplomat on the Backstage ; Conclusion. Nuclear Statesmen ; Epilogue

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Book SynopsisEver since the first atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, the prospect of nuclear annihilation has haunted the modern world. But as John Mueller reveals in this eye-opening, compellingly argued, and very reassuring book, our obsession with nuclear weapons is unsupported by history, scientific fact, or logic. Examining the entire atomic era, Mueller boldly contends that nuclear weapons have had little impact on history. Although they have inspired overwrought policies and distorted spending priorities, for the most part they have proved to be militarily useless, and a key reason so few countries have taken them up is that they are a spectacular waste of money and scientific talent. Equally important, Atomic Obsession reveals why anxieties about terrorists obtaining nuclear weapons are essentially baseless: a host of practical and organizational difficulties make their likelihood of success almost vanishingly small.Mueller, one of America''s most distinguished yet provocative internationalTrade ReviewHis witty and unmerciful intellectual attack on the doomsayers, who have been arguing for the past 50 years that rapid proliferation is just around the corner, that we stand on the brink of a new nuclear age, or that it is a few minutes to midnight, is a refreshing one. * Survival *Table of ContentsIntroduction ; Part I. The Impact of Nuclear Weapons ; 1. Effects ; 2. Overstating the Effects ; 3. Deterring World War III: Essential Irrelevance ; 4. Influence on History ; 5. Influence on Rhetoric, Theorizing, and Budgets ; Part II. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons ; 6. Arms Races: Positive and Negative ; 7. Proliferation: Slow and Substantially Inconsequential ; 8. The Modest Appeal and Value of Nuclear Weapons ; 9. Controlling Proliferation ; 10. Assessing the Costs of the Proliferation Fixation ; 11. Reconsidering Proliferation Policy ; Part III. The Atomic Terrorist? ; 12. Task ; 13. Likelihood ; 14. Progress and Interest ; 15. Capacity

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Book SynopsisThus far, we have succeeded in preventing a nuclear war, and this is partly due to the various treaties signed in the 1960s forswearing the use of nuclear technology for military purposes. The author seeks to understand why some nations agreed to these limitations of their sovereign will - and why others decidedly did not.Trade Review"This brilliant book should be of wide interest to students of government, politics, sociology, and law, as well as to high-level policy makers and the general public concerned with nuclear nonproliferation and problems of global governance. Mallard draws deftly on a wealth of primary and secondary sources to provide us with a lucid and captivating account of the centrality of 'opacity' as a discursive strategy in transnational affairs." (Daniel Halberstam, University of Michigan)"

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Book SynopsisOffers necessary steps to set us on the path toward true biosecurity. This book argues that true biosecurity will require a multipronged effort based on an understanding of the complexity of the issue, guided by scientific ethics, and watched over by a vigilant citizenry attentive to the difference between fearmongering and true analysis of risk.Trade Review"Forceful and provocative, Breeding Bio Insecurity contends that U.S. biodefense policies generate more risk than the threat they are supposed to be addressing. By carefully spelling out their rationales, the book's authors place the burden of justification on the defenders of massive biodefense budgets. Replete with deft arguments and imaginative scenarios, this book should be read by scientists, policy makers, and, indeed, all concerned citizens." - Leonard Cole, author of Terror: How Israel Has Coped and What America Can Learn"

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Book SynopsisAs the costs of a preemptive foreign policy in Iraq have become clear, strategies such as containment and deterrence have been gaining currency among policy makers. This book offers an agenda for the contemporary practice of deterrence - especially as it applies to nuclear weapons - in an increasingly heterogeneous global and political setting.Trade Review"This book is a valuable antidote to some of the more glib and prematurely pessimistic statements that get circulated about 'the end of deterrence as we know it.' Quite comprehensive on the theories and modes of deterrence, it is valuable for drawing together both political scientists and policy makers." - George Quester, University of Maryland"

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Book SynopsisIn an era when knowledge can travel with astonishing speed, the need for analysis of intellectual property (IP) lawand its focus on patents, trade secrets, trademarks, and issues of copyrighthas never been greater. But as Robert M. Farley and Davida H. Isaacs stress in Patents for Power, we have long overlooked critical ties between IP law and one area of worldwide concern: military technology. This deft blend of case studies, theoretical analyses, and policy advice reveals the fundamental role of IP law in shaping how states create and transmit defense equipment and weaponry. The book probes two major issues: the effect of IP law on innovation itself and the effect of IP law on the international diffusion, or sharing, of technology. Discussing a range of inventions, from the AK-47 rifle to the B-29 Superfortress bomber to the MQ-1 Predator drone, the authors show how IP systems (or their lack) have impacted domestic and international relations across a number of countries, includiTrade Review“Nations seek security through military technologies, but within legal frameworks. By protecting invention, global intellectual property law affects how they develop and disseminate weaponry. But how will additive manufacturing and cyber espionage accelerate that dissemination? How much should military concerns affect commercial law? Will Russia and China fight this regime, or seek benefits from joining it? Farley and Isaacs address all these questions, critically advancing our understanding through integrative analysis of international law and security.” -- James Hasik, George Mason University“Scholars in the fields of international relations, defense technology, and intellectual property law will find Farley and Isaacs's Patents for Power an exemplar of innovative multidisciplinary analysis. Operating at the nexus of political science, economics, and legal theory, their vividly written, and persuasively argued book has resonance for academics and practitioners alike.” -- Mark E. Duckenfield, Army War CollegeTable of Contents1. Introduction 2. The International Relations of Intellectual Property Protection 3. Intellectual Property and the US Defense Industrial Base 4. Intellectual Property in Defense in Comparative Context 5. Intellectual Property and the Arms Trade 6. Intellectual Property, Industrial Espionage, and Cyber Security 7. Conclusion Acknowledgments Notes Selected Bibliography Index

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Book SynopsisTrade ReviewCohen's second outstanding book on Israel's nuclear project, and the veil of ambiguity that has swathed it from inception, provides a richly detailed account of its history and a provocative analysis of its future. Cohen shows how Israel's beleaguered national existence and persistent Holocaust memories led to the taboo on any acknowledgment of its nuclear weapons program, which cannot, in his view, any longer serve Israel's interests. This is a splendid work of historical research as well as a thought-provoking challenge for both current and future Israeli and American policymakers. -- Samuel Lewis, U.S. Ambassador to Israel, 1977-1985 This important book should be read by anyone interested in understanding the changes that Israel will need to make in its nuclear program as the world reduces reliance on nuclear weapons. Cohen makes a compelling case for why it is in Israeli's interest to confirm its nuclear weapons program and participate in efforts to reduce reliance on nuclear weapons. -- Morton H. Halperin, senior advisor, Open Society Institute Avner Cohen has written the most informed history of Israel's secret drive to get the bomb, and now he has gone further. In The Worst-Kept Secret, he describes and explains Israel's insistence that all talk or writing about its nuclear arsenal be exorcised from public discourse. The nuclear "taboo," as Cohen depicts it, continues unabated today, undermining Israeli democracy at home and its credibility abroad. -- Seymour M. Hersh, author of The Samson Option: Israel's Nuclear Arsenal and American Foreign Policy Cohen's persistent research and numerous books and articles have set the standard in the field and serve as an unrivaled source for anyone interested in Israel's biggest taboo. The Worst-Kept Secret provides a firm factual basis upon which our knowledge about Israel's nuclear program, with its richness of historic detail and personal anecdotes, rests. Moreover, it lays out a wide-ranging theoretical framework for discussing the pros and cons of Israel's amimut policy and its prolonged effect on the country's democracy and governance and its possible future revision. This book will undoubtedly serve as the new benchmark for studying and debating its topic. -- Aluf Benn, editor-at-large, Haaretz [Cohen's] exploration of the issues is thoughtful, measured and deep, and very much worthy of wide consideration. -- Ethan Bronner New York Times A brave, provocative, and very important book. -- Bruce Riedel HaaretzTable of ContentsPreface Acknowledgments Introduction: Amimut as a National Nuclear Bargain Abbreviations Chronology 1. The Birth of Amimut 2. The Case for Amimut 3. Israel's Nuclear Path: The Key Decisions 4. The Infrastructure of Amimut 5. The Citizenry: The Taboo Keepers 6. The Democratic Cost of Amimut: The Impact on the Citizenry 7. The Democratic Cost of Amimut: Governance 8. Domestic Reforms 9. Iran, the Fissile Materials Cutoff Treaty (FMCT), and Beyond 10. Toward a New Bargain Epilogue Notes Bibliography Index

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Book SynopsisThe thinking and leadership we need to avoid an irreversible tragedy.Trade ReviewCirincione lucidly provides a greater understanding of the threats still posed by the 17,000 nuclear weapons in the world, the risk of their use and analyzes the efforts to reduce and eliminate these threats. He also provides an original contribution in its analysis of the debate surrounding the nuclear policy of the Obama administration. -- Lawrence Korb, Center for American Progress Everyone in this world needs to be aware of the dangers posed by nuclear weapons, and also to realize that progress is possible. The record of achievement is there and the path to a better future can be identified. Joe Cirincione has been part of this unfolding story, and this book will help advance the effort on which he and so many of us have worked so hard. -- George P. Shultz, 60th Secretary of State Joe Cirincione is a clear-eyed, straight-talking, highly influential sage on the spread of nuclear weaponry and the imperative for the U.S. to lead the global effort in blunting this existential danger to the planet. In his latest book, he assesses the chances for progress in arms control between Presidents Obama and Putin, analyzes the latest ominous developments in Iran, Pakistan, and North Korea, lays out practical steps for American policy, and recommends ways for citizens to engage in the cause of nonproliferation. -- Strobe Talbott, President of the Brookings Institution In Nuclear Nightmares, Joe Cirincione presents a thorough, honest, and balanced view of the challenges to our security that nuclear weapons and fissile materials present to us today and the dangers that will emerge in the future. He implores us all to become knowledgeable, engage with our national leaders, and participate in the decisions that will so significantly affect our future. If you read only one book on this issue, this is the one. -- William J. Perry, 19th Secretary of Defense Joe Cirincione is our nation's best communicator and clarion advocate on reducing the threat of nuclear weapons. Nuclear Nightmares should be required reading for every Beltway journalist, every student of policy, and everyone who can't quite get their head around the thousands of nuclear bombs we're maintaining right now, ready to launch, even though no one can quite explain why on earth we would ever launch them. At the risk of undermining the title itself, Nuclear Nightmares will not actually give you nightmares. It will make you see that our giant, supposedly intractable nuclear problem is solvable, now, in this generation. A fascinating and vital book -- Rachel Maddow, Host of MSNBC's The Rachel Maddow Show Cirincione's gripping, harrowing account of the arms race debate is essential reading for those concerned with a fickle world prone to threats and terrorism. Publishers Weekly ...the author is a clear-eyed, straight-talking, highly influential sage on the spread of nuclear weaponry... Political Studies Review This excellent book addresses the danger of nuclear catastrophe created by the existence of 17,000 nuclear weapons worldwide and the absence of a sustained effort to eliminate them... Highly recommended. ChoiceTable of ContentsIntroduction Part I. Policy 1. Promise 2. Legacy 3. Pivot Part II. Nightmares 4. Arsenals and Accidents 5. Calculating Armageddon 6. Exploding Budgets 7. The 95 Percent 8. The Most Dangerous Country on Earth Part III. Solutions 9. Posture and Proliferation 10. The End of Proliferation 11. Foundations Appendix A. Remarks by President Barack Obama Appendix B. Statement by President Barack Obama on the Release of Nuclear Posture Review Appendix C. Remarks by President Barack Obama at the United Nations Security Council Summit on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Disarmament Appendix D. Excerpts from President Barack Obama's State of the Union Address Appendix E. Remarks by President Barack Obama at New START Treaty Signing Ceremony Appendix F. Ploughshares Fund Acknowledgments Notes Index

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Book SynopsisThe strategic and political implications of an already-nuclear rogue power.Trade ReviewDavis and Pfaltzgraff have chosen to tackle a subject few others have: that Iran might actually succeed in its quest to get 'the bomb' and how it might behave as a result. Their assessment will prove invaluable to U.S. policy makers, who are forced, by necessity, to think about the 'day after' Iran goes nuclear and what that might mean for U.S. policy. -- Ilan Berman, vice president, American Foreign Policy Council Anticipating a Nuclear Iran is a both spare and comprehensive guide concerning perhaps the most vexing security challenge of our time. It is a must-read for the defense and diplomatic communities. -- Robert D. Kaplan, chief geopolitical analyst for Stratfor and author of The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate This objective and dispassionate assessment of what a nuclear Iran might mean for U.S. security is must reading for the policy maker, the policy analyst, and the broader public policy community. The authors break new ground in their multifaceted discussion of Iran's nuclear program and its implications for deterrence dynamics in the complex twenty-first-century world. A brilliant work of policy scholarship. -- James Stavridis, U.S. Navy (Ret.), and dean, the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University The originality of Jacquelyn K. Davis and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff Jr.'s book lies in its creative synthesis of historical, logical, and technology and force-structure trends into a coherent assessment of what a nuclear Iran means for the region and the world. They explain U.S. policy implications of an Iran with atomic weapons in a clear, insightful way. -- Paul Bracken, Yale University, and author of The Second Nuclear Age: Strategy, Danger, and the New Power Politics Anticipating a Nuclear Iran is an important and sobering volume which should put to rest any suggestion that a nuclear Iran would be easily managed. SurvivalTable of ContentsList of Tables and Boxes Preface 1. Introduction: Setting the Scene for Iran's Emergence as a Nuclear Power 2. The Deterrence Dynamics of an Iran with Nuclear Weapons 3. Considerations Influencing Iran's Nuclear Emergence 4. Nuclear Weapons Operationalization: What Type of Nuclear Force? 5. Implications for U.S. Strategic and Operational Planning 6. U.S. Deterrence Planning in the Event of an Iranian Nuclear Breakout 7. Dealing with a Nuclear Iran and Asymmetric Challenges 8. U.S. Deterrence Planning and Iran Notes Index

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Book SynopsisProvides a possible roadmap for future policies and practices.Trade Review"This important book captures the deep complexity and contingency of the problem of militarization and demilitarization in the post-World War II environment. The thought-provoking essays provide deep and important insights in a global and comparative framework."--Michael Neiberg, author of The Blood of Free Men: The Liberation of Paris, 1944

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"David Oualaalou, a geopolitical analyst, writer, speaker, teacher, military veteran, Middle East specialist and linguist with unique first-hand experiences and knowledge gained from personal field intelligence in Middle East wars—combined with his fresh and unique writing style—has produced a challenging perspective and a thought-provoking book. David's unembellished bold critiques, with credible analytical interpretation of geopolitical implications and national security challenges, for not only the USA but for the Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and others in the new Middle East region (and world), will be much discussed in this impressive approach to eye-opening questions with credible rival answers. I believe this book is crucial reading for any person interested in the future nuclear Middle East."—William A. Mitchell, author of Baylor in Northern Iraq during Operation Iraqi Freedom"Once again Dr. Oualaalou has brought to life a complex current topic.His balanced and in-depth investigation of the topic allows the reader to not only learn the history of the parties involved, but also to follow the historic threads that have led to today's geopolitical situation. Dr. Oualaalou has the experience and expertise to give a clear picture of the region's issues today and projection of possible scenarios in the future."—Mortada Mohamed, President, World Affairs Council of AustinTable of ContentsAcknowledgmentsPreface1. Introduction2. History of the Persian Empire3. Emergence of Modern-Day Iran4. Political Landscape of the Middle East5. Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East6. The Future of the Middle East and Its Geopolitical Outcome7. Author's Reflections

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"David Oualaalou, a geopolitical analyst, writer, speaker, teacher, military veteran, Middle East specialist and linguist with unique first-hand experiences and knowledge gained from personal field intelligence in Middle East wars—combined with his fresh and unique writing style—has produced a challenging perspective and a thought-provoking book. David's unembellished bold critiques, with credible analytical interpretation of geopolitical implications and national security challenges, for not only the USA but for the Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and others in the new Middle East region (and world), will be much discussed in this impressive approach to eye-opening questions with credible rival answers. I believe this book is crucial reading for any person interested in the future nuclear Middle East."—William A. Mitchell, author of Baylor in Northern Iraq during Operation Iraqi Freedom"Once again Dr. Oualaalou has brought to life a complex current topic.His balanced and in-depth investigation of the topic allows the reader to not only learn the history of the parties involved, but also to follow the historic threads that have led to today's geopolitical situation. Dr. Oualaalou has the experience and expertise to give a clear picture of the region's issues today and projection of possible scenarios in the future."—Mortada Mohamed, President, World Affairs Council of AustinTable of ContentsAcknowledgmentsPreface1. Introduction2. History of the Persian Empire3. Emergence of Modern-Day Iran4. Political Landscape of the Middle East5. Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East6. The Future of the Middle East and Its Geopolitical Outcome7. Author's Reflections

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Book SynopsisOffering a view of the secret development and voluntary disarmament of South Africa's nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons program, Project Coast, the authors explore how systems used for nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons in South Africa were acquired and established beyond the gaze of international and domestic political actors.Table of Contents1. Introduction: The Ongoing Problem of South Africa's Unconventional Weapons2. South Africa in a World of Proliferating Weapons3. Origins and Evolution of Nuclear-Weapons Research and Development4. Warheads, Missiles, and Nuclear-Deterrence Strategy5. Project Coast and Its Origins6. Dismantling the Nuclear-Weapons Program7. The Rollback of Project Coast8. Disarmament Trendsetter9. Emerging Issues and Residual ConcernsAppendix: Policy Lessons from the South African CaseNotesBibliographyIndex

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Book SynopsisPresents the complete text of thirty-four treaties that have effectively contained the spread of nuclear, biological, and conventional weapons during the Cold War and beyond. This title is suitable for diplomats, international lawyers, and arms control specialists.Table of ContentsAbbreviations and Acronyms Preface Introduction 1. The 1925 Geneva Protocol 2. The Antarctic Treaty 3. The "Hot Line" Agreements 4. The Limited Test Ban Treaty 5. The Outer Space Treaty 6. Nuclear-Weapon-Free-Zone Treaties 7. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 8. Special Non-Proliferation Treaty Safeguards Agreements 9. The Seabed Arms Control Treaty 10. The "Accidents Measures" Agreement 11. The Biological Weapons Convention 12. The Incidents at Sea Agreement 13. The Strategic Arms Limitation Talks 14. The Threshold Test Ban Treaty 15. The Peaceful Nuclear Explosions Treaty 16. The Environmental Modification Convention 17. The Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material 18. Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons 19. Nuclear Risk Reduction Centers 20. The Ballistic Missile Launch Notification Agreement 21. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty 22. The Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty 23. The Open Skies Treaty 24. The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties (START I & II) 25. The Chemical Weapons Convention 26. The Agreed Framework 27. Confidence and Security Measures Documents 28. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty 29. The Ottawa Convention on Landmines 30. Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions Conclusions Appendix

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Book Synopsis“The greatest danger of another catastrophic attack in the United States will materialize if the world's most dangerous terrorists acquire the world's most dangerous weapons.” —The 9/11 Commission Report The bipartisan Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism was established by the U.S. Congress to build on the work of the 9/11 Commission by assessing our nation's progress in preventing weapons of mass destruction proliferation and terrorism, and providing a roadmap to greater security with concrete recommendations for improvement.The Commission has interviewed over 200 experts inside and outside of government. They have met with counterterrorism and intelligence officials here at home and abroad who are working to stop proliferation and terrorism The Commission's report examines the government's current policies and programs, identifies gaps in our government's prevention strategy and recommends wa

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Book SynopsisFrom one of our leading social thinkers, a compelling case for the elimination of nuclear weapons.Trade Review"Eloquent." -- Richard Rhodes - The New York Times"The premise of this book is as relevant as it is horrifying, that the power to inflict great harm doesn’t belong to those that it supposedly protects. I congratulate Elaine Scarry on her intellectual courage and moral clarity and in proposing the only possible way out." -- Marcelo Gleiser, author of A Tear at the Edge of Creation"A really remarkable work, ranging across ethics, law and politics to pose genuinely radical challenges to the confused and potentially lethal systems that pass for democracy in our world. A painfully timely intervention." -- Rowan Williams, Master of Magdalene College, Cambridge and former Archbishop of Canterbury"Elaine Scarry offers a coruscating critique of current policies, arguing that they are antithetic to the spirit of the U.S. constitution, and indeed to basic democratic principles. This eloquent and scholarly book offers a compelling case for swifter progress toward their elimination." -- Martin Rees, astronomer royal of England"Even someone unpersuaded by Elaine Scarry’s constitutional analysis cannot avoid being gripped by her stark depiction of how utterly incompatible our eighteenth-century constitutional structure and the social contract it embodies are with our twenty-first-century weapons of mass destruction, weapons that can annihilate tens of millions of human souls in the blink of an eye and at the whim of a single individual, consulting with no one. A sober and haunting meditation on this tension between our institutions and our capacities, Scarry’s book requires any thoughtful reader to revisit the basic postulates and the deepest human purposes of our system of government." -- Laurence H. Tribe, professor of constitutional law, Harvard Law School"A few years ago General Lee Butler, former head of the U.S. Strategic Command, condemned the ‘faith in nuclear weapons’ to which his life had been wrongly dedicated and the ‘breathtaking audacity’ in maintaining them when ‘we should stand trembling in the face of our folly and united in our commitment to abolish its most deadly manifestations.’ In this fascinating study, Elaine Scarry adds rich historical, philosophical, literary, and legal depth to Butler’s grim warnings, with novel and provocative insights. That we have escaped disaster so far is a near miracle. Scarry’s remarkable contribution should inspire us to abolish this colossal folly." -- Noam Chomsky"[U]rgent and lucid … [a] prolonged rallying cry of a book." -- Kenneth Baker - San Francisco Chronicle"Elaine Scarry is right: Americans live in a thermonuclear monarchy." -- Kennette Benedict - Bulletin of Atomic Scientists"Scarry’s assault on the reigning complacency about nuclear weapons rests on her belief in the capacity of an interpretation to reconfigure the world." -- Nathan Schneider - Chronicle of Higher Education"Thermonuclear Monarchy is a work of deadly serious political science by an analyst dwelling on the constitutional implications of giving a democratically elected president sovereign-like autocracy." -- Nick Smith - Engineering & Technology (U.K.)"Scarry’s book requires any thoughtful reader to revisit the basic postulates and the deepest human purposes of our system of government." -- Laurence H. Tribe, Professor of Constitutional Law, Harvard Law School

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Book SynopsisThis book, first published in 1995, explores how the everyday person reasons about nuclear strategy. James DeNardo's discovery that the amateur's strategic reasoning defies all conventional theories lays the groundwork for a new understanding of national security politics, and challenges the intellectual foundations of modern deterrence theory, public opinion studies, and game theory.Trade Review'This unusual book combines security studies, game theory, psychology, political sciences and statistical analysis in an investigation of preferences regarding American polity for Nuclear weapons. … The wide scope of the material in this book is supported by extensive references to current literature.' Defence AnalysisTable of Contents1. Introduction; 2. A primer on the Cold War nuclear debate; 3. An introduction to intuitive deterrence theories; 4. Competing hypotheses about nuclear thinking; 5. The novice strategists; 6. The intuitive calculus of nuclear deterrence; 7. Statistical tests of the intuitive nuclear calculus; 8. Expert nuclear reasoning; 9. The factional politics of strategy and the end of the Cold War arms race; 10. Nuclear thinking after the cold war.

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Book SynopsisAfter forty years of largely cooperative Sino-U.S. relations, policymakers, politicians, and pundits on both sides of the Pacific see growing tensions between the United States and China. Some go so far as to predict a future of conflict, driven by the inevitable rivalry between an established and a rising power, and urge their leaders to prepare nTrade Review"Strategic Reassurance and Resolve furnishes an important and wide-ranging toolkit to keep the conversation between the U.S. and China going."--Ali Wyne, Wall Street Journal "[T]he points Steinberg and O'Hanlon make deserve the attention of all readers interested in the connection between U.S. and China going forward."--Publishers Weekly "[S]cholarly as well as accessible, marking out the potential points of conflict while avoiding the glib certainties of much commentary on the implications of China's rise. What sets this book apart, however, is its intelligent effort to chart a feasible path for the relationship that could prevent inevitable competition hardening into unavoidable conflict... If policy makers on either side of the Pacific are looking for a handbook--and they should be--Steinberg and O'Hanlon have written one."--Philip Stephens, Financial Times "Steinberg and O'Hanlon offer a realistic assessment of the challenges ahead in the US-China relationship... Ultimately, Steinberg and O'Hanlon's great contribution is in laying out a nuanced, yet clear-eyed plan to reduce the risk of great power conflict in the 21st century's most consequential bilateral relationship. As the authors themselves argue, the United States' and China's long-term intentions are unknown, unknowable, and dynamic. But if there exists an approach to avoiding dangerous rivalry and promoting stability in spite of this, it is Strategic Reassurance and Resolve."--Mira Rapp-Hooper, National Interest "This book is for those who want a thorough explanation of the security, defense, and strategic issues facing China and the U.S."--South China Morning Post "James Steinberg and Michael O'Hanlon argue persuasively."--Shannon Tiezzi, Diplomat "[T]his readable title is a must for anyone interested in U.S. foreign policy and U.S.-China relations."--Library Journal "This is an important book that should be read by anyone interested in US-China relations today."--Lanxin Xiang, Survival "Not only tackles in sustained depth the contemporary security challenges that the United States and China face ... but also presents a general security framework that is applicable across other bilateral or multilateral international relations debates. Acknowledging but ultimately eschewing the role of economic and political relations in the determination of security, Steinberg and O'Hanlon present a sustained, informed and practical study of military and strategic issues and their potential resolution for the United States and China."--Tyler Rooker, Pacific Affairs "This book deserves to be widely read and discussed. Steinberg and O'Hanlon have made an important contribution in advancing the dialogue on strategic relations between the United States and China."--Andrew Scobell, Political Science QuarterlyTable of ContentsPreface to the Paperback Edition ix Acknowledgments xiii Chapter 1. Introduction 1 Part I: The Cause for Concern Chapter 2. The Sources of Conflict 17 Chapter 3. The Determinants of Chinese Strategy 29 Chapter 4. The Determinants of American Strategy 48 Part II: Strategic Reassurance in Practice Chapter 5. Military Spending and Military Modernization 77 Chapter 6. Military Contingencies: Enhancing Crisis Stability 120 Chapter 7. The Strategic Domain: Nuclear, Space, and Cyber 150 Chapter 8. Bases, Deployments, and Operations 182 Chapter 9. Conclusion 203 Appendix A. Summary of Specific Recommendations 209 Appendix B. Naval Vessels of the United States and China 213 Notes 215 Index 257

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Book SynopsisRobert Jervis has been a pioneering leader in the study of the psychology of international politics for more than four decades. How Statesmen Think presents his most important ideas on the subject from across his career. This collection of revised and updated essays applies, elaborates, and modifies his pathbreaking work. The result is an indispensTrade Review"These essays make an invaluable contribution to understanding 'how statesmen think.' The book is strongly recommended for students and researchers in international relations." * Choice *"Robert Jervis is one of those rare scholars of International Relations whose work is path-breaking and enduring in multiple research areas, ranging from nuclear deterrence to political psychology, from intelligence to complexity theory. . . . That this volume brings together twelve of Jervis's previously published essays on political psychology and international relations is a boon to scholars and practitioners alike."---Balkan Devlen, International AffairsTable of ContentsAcknowledgments ix Introduction 1 I Political Psychology 13 1 Understanding Beliefs 15 2 The Drunkard's Search 40 II Heuristics and Biases 61 3 Representativeness, Foreign Policy Judgments, and Theory-Driven Perceptions 63 4 Prospect Theory: The Political Implications of Loss Aversion 85 III Political Psychology And International Relations Theory 105 5 Signaling and Perception: Projecting Images and Drawing Inferences 107 6 Political Psychology Research and Theory: Bridges and Barriers 125 7 Why Intelligence and Policymakers Clash 148 8 Identity and the Cold War 169 IV Psychology And National Security 189 9 Deterrence and Perception 191 10 Psychology and Crisis Stability 216 11 Domino Beliefs 234 12 Perception, Misperception, and the End of the Cold War 261 Index 281

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