Risk assessment Books

Book SynopsisHigh-level guidance for implementing enterprise risk management in any organization A Practical Guide to Risk Management shows organizations how to implement an effective ERM solution, starting with senior management and risk and compliance professionals working together to categorize and assess risks throughout the enterprise. Detailed guidance is provided on the key risk categories, including financial, operational, reputational, and strategic areas, along with practical tips on how to handle risks that overlap across categories. Provides high-level guidance on how to implement enterprise risk management across any organization Includes discussion of the latest trends and best practices Features the role of IT in ERM and the tools that are available in both assessment and on-going compliance Discusses the key challenges that need to be overcome for a successful ERM initiative Walking readers through the creation of ERM aTable of ContentsPreface xi Chapter 1: Overview of Enterprise Risk Management 1 ERM Introduction 1 Guidance: History and Relationship 3 Organization View 5 ERM Today 7 Increased Pressure to Manage Risk 9 Additional evidence 10 Perceived Barriers to Risk Management 11 Building the Business Case for ERM: Value and Benefi ts 11 Keys to Success 13 Summary 15 Notes 16 Chapter 2: Corporate Governance and Roles and Responsibilities 17 Board Behavior 18 Corporate Culture 19 Roles and Responsibilities 20 Summary 23 Chapter 3: ERM Defined 25 Definitions and Concepts 28 Risk Categories 30 Internal Environment 31 Summary 34 note 34 Chapter 4: The ERM Process Step by Step 35 Step 1 Strategy and Objective Definition 36 Step 2 Event Identification 38 Step 3 Risk Assessment 40 Step 4 Risk Response 41 Step 5 Communication 45 Step 6 Monitoring 46 Oversight 47 Summary 47 Notes 48 Chapter 5: COSO Framework and Financial Controls 49 Focus on Financial Controls 49 Control Environment 52 Integrity and Ethical Values 53 Board of Directors 55 Management’s Philosophy and Operating Style 57 Organizational Structure 57 Financial Reporting Competencies 58 Authority and Responsibility 59 Human Resources 60 Summary 61 Notes 62 Appendix 5A: Excerpt from a Code of Ethics Policy 63 Our Guiding Principles and Values 64 Conflicts of Interest 64 Confidential Information; Intellectual Property 65 Appendix 5B: Whistleblower Program 67 Reports Regarding Accounting Matters 67 Investigation of Suspected Violations 68 Discipline for Violations 68 Appendix 5C: Approval Policy and Procedures 69 Policy 69 Purpose 69 Scope 69 Approvals/Documentation 70 Chapter 6: Financial Controls and Risk Assessment 74 Risk Assessment 74 Financial Reporting Objectives 75 Financial Reporting Risks 76 Fraud Risk 77 Entity-Level Controls 83 Example: Risk Assessment and Financial Controls 84 Evaluating Deficiencies 86 Summary 87 Notes 87 Appendix 6A: Entity-Level Control Assessment 88 Control Assessment Overview 88 Control Environment 90 Overall Evaluation of Control Environment 95 Risk Assessment 96 Overall Evaluation of Risk Assessment 98 Control Activities 99 Overall Evaluation of Control Activities 100 Information and Communication 101 Overall Evaluation of Information and Communication 104 Monitoring 105 Overall Evaluation of Monitoring 108 Summary Assessment 109 Overall Assessment of Internal Controls 110 Appendix 6B: Accounts Payable Preliminary Controls Assessment Questionnaire 111 Purchasing Controls Questionnaire 111 Internal Control Assessment 112 Appendix 6C: Fraud Risk Factors: AU Section 316 114 Risk Factors Relating to Misstatements Arising from Fraudulent Financial Reporting 114 Chapter 7: Ongoing Compliance Overview 120 Origin of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act 120 Generating Value from Compliance 121 Moving Beyond Initial Compliance 123 Reevaluating the Compliance Program 125 Summary 131 Chapter 8: Ongoing Compliance Challenges 132 Future State Opportunity: Compliance Optimization 133 Issues to Consider When Optimizing Compliance 136 Ongoing Compliance Plan 138 Role of Internal Audit: Balancing the Compliance and Audit Functions 143 Evolving Role of the Audit Committee 145 Summary 148 Chapter 9: Addressing Compliance and Risk Management Challenges through Automation 149 Software Can Add Value Beyond Compliance 151 Monitoring Software 152 Utilization of Continuous Monitoring: Control Testing and Control Automation 153 Benefits of Continuous Monitoring 154 Continuous Monitoring Tool Considerations 155 Continuous Monitoring Process 155 Risk Management Software 157 Unifying Financial Statements, Close Tasks, and SOX Controls 159 Determining the Right Solution 159 Summary 161 Note 161 Chapter 10: Ongoing Compliance and IFRS 162 International Financial Reporting Standards 162 Communicating the Impact 164 Preparing for IFRS 166 Comprehensive IFRS Transition Approach 167 Key Elements of an Effective IFRS Implementation 170 Summary 172 About the Author 173 Index 175

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Book SynopsisNewsworthy disasters, such as fires and explosions in buildings housing hazardous materials, have focused attention as never before on methods of evaluating and controlling hazards. In the first coherent treatment of the subject, this title details the application of hazard and risk analysis to fire safety.Table of ContentsPreface. PART I: STRUCTURE OF THE FIRE PROBLEM. 1 The place of fire safety in the community. 2 The fire safety system. 3 Review of some major fire & explosion disasters. 4 Requirements from public and private authorities for fire safety. PART II: QUANTIFYING FIRE SAFETY. 5 Physical data. 6 Sources of statistical data. 7 Occurrence and growth of fire. 8 Life loss. 9 Property damage. 10 Performance of fire safety measures. PART III: METHODS OF MEASURING FIRE SAFETY. 11 Deterministic fire safety modeling. 12 Model Validation. 13 Point systems - a single index. 14 Logic trees. 15 Stochastic fire risk modeling. 16 Fire safety concepts tree and derivative approaches. 17 Fire safety assessment in the process industries. Index.

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Book SynopsisRisk and reliability analysis is an area of growing importance in geotechnical engineering, where many variables have to be considered. Statistics, reliability modeling and engineering judgement are employed together to develop risk and decision analyses for civil engineering systems. The resulting engineering models are used to make probabilistic predictions, which are applied to geotechnical problems. Reliability & Statistics in Geotechnical Engineering comprehensively covers the subject of risk and reliability in both practical and research terms * Includes extensive use of case studies * Presents topics not covered elsewhere--spatial variability and stochastic properties of geological materials * No comparable texts available Practicing engineers will find this an essential resource as will graduates in geotechnical engineering programmes.Table of ContentsPreface. Part I. 1 Introduction – uncertainty and risk in geotechnical engineering. 1.1 Offshore platforms. 1.2 Pit mine slopes. 1.3 Balancing risk and reliability in a geotechnical design. 1.4 Historical development of reliability methods in civil engineering. 1.5 Some terminological and philosophical issues. 1.6 The organization of this book. 1.7 A comment on notation and nomenclature. 2 Uncertainty. 2.1 Randomness, uncertainty, and the world. 2.2 Modeling uncertainties in risk and reliability analysis. 2.3 Probability. 3 Probability. 3.1 Histograms and frequency diagrams. 3.2 Summary statistics. 3.3 Probability theory. 3.4 Random variables. 3.5 Random process models. 3.6 Fitting mathematical pdf models to data. 3.7 Covariance among variables. 4 Inference. 4.1 Frequentist theory. 4.2 Bayesian theory. 4.3 Prior probabilities. 4.4 Inferences from sampling. 4.5 Regression analysis. 4.6 Hypothesis tests. 4.7 Choice among models. 5 Risk, decisions and judgment. 5.1 Risk. 5.2 Optimizing decisions. 5.3 Non-optimizing decisions. 5.4 Engineering judgment. Part II. 6 Site characterization. 6.1 Developments in site characterization. 6.2 Analytical approaches to site characterization. 6.3 Modeling site characterization activities. 6.4 Some pitfalls of intuitive data evaluation. 6.5 Organization of Part II. 7 Classification and mapping. 7.1 Mapping discrete variables. 7.2 Classification. 7.3 Discriminant analysis. 7.4 Mapping. 7.5 Carrying out a discriminant or logistic analysis. 8 Soil variability. 8.1 Soil properties. 8.2 Index tests and classification of soils. 8.3 Consolidation properties. 8.4 Permeability. 8.5 Strength properties. 8.6 Distributional properties. 8.7 Measurement error. 9 Spatial variability within homogeneous deposits. 9.1 Trends and variations about trends. 9.2 Residual variations. 9.3 Estimating autocorrelation and autocovariance. 9.4 Variograms and geostatistics. Appendix: algorithm for maximizing log-likelihood of autocovariance. 10 Random field theory. 10.1 Stationary processes. 10.2 Mathematical properties of autocovariance functions. 10.3 Multivariate (vector) random fields. 10.4 Gaussian random fields. 10.5 Functions of random fields. 11 Spatial sampling. 11.1 Concepts of sampling. 11.2 Common spatial sampling plans. 11.3 Interpolating random fields. 11.4 Sampling for autocorrelation. 12 Search theory. 12.1 Brief history of search theory. 12.2 Logic of a search process. 12.3 Single stage search. 12.4 Grid search. 12.5 Inferring target characteristics. 12.6 Optimal search. 12.7 Sequential search. Part III. 13 Reliability analysis and error propagation. 13.1 Loads, resistances and reliability. 13.2 Results for different distributions of the performance function. 13.3 Steps and approximations in reliability analysis. 13.4 Error propagation – statistical moments of the performance function. 13.5 Solution techniques for practical cases. 13.6 A simple conceptual model of practical significance. 14 First order second moment (FOSM) methods. 14.1 The James Bay dikes. 14.2 Uncertainty in geotechnical parameters. 14.3 FOSM calculations. 14.4 Extrapolations and consequences. 14.5 Conclusions from the James Bay study. 14.6 Final comments. 15 Point estimate methods. 15.1 Mathematical background. 15.2 Rosenblueth’s cases and notation. 15.3 Numerical results for simple cases. 15.4 Relation to orthogonal polynomial quadrature. 15.5 Relation with ‘Gauss points’ in the finite element method. 15.6 Limitations of orthogonal polynomial quadrature. 15.7 Accuracy, or when to use the point-estimate method. 15.8 The problem of the number of computation points. 15.9 Final comments and conclusions. 16 The Hasofer–Lind approach (FORM). 16.1 Justification for improvement – vertical cut in cohesive soil. 16.2 The Hasofer–Lind formulation. 16.3 Linear or non-linear failure criteria and uncorrelated variables. 16.4 Higher order reliability. 16.5 Correlated variables. 16.6 Non-normal variables. 17 Monte Carlo simulation methods. 17.1 Basic considerations. 17.2 Computer programming considerations. 17.3 Simulation of random processes. 17.4 Variance reduction methods. 17.5 Summary. 18 Load and resistance factor design. 18.1 Limit state design and code development. 18.2 Load and resistance factor design. 18.3 Foundation design based on LRFD. 18.4 Concluding remarks. 19 Stochastic finite elements. 19.1 Elementary finite element issues. 19.2 Correlated properties. 19.3 Explicit formulation. 19.4 Monte Carlo study of differential settlement. 19.5 Summary and conclusions. Part IV. 20 Event tree analysis. 20.1 Systems failure. 20.2 Influence diagrams. 20.3 Constructing event trees. 20.4 Branch probabilities. 20.5 Levee example revisited. 21 Expert opinion. 21.1 Expert opinion in geotechnical practice. 21.2 How do people estimate subjective probabilities? 21.3 How well do people estimate subjective probabilities? 21.4 Can people learn to be well-calibrated? 21.5 Protocol for assessing subjective probabilities. 21.6 Conducting a process to elicit quantified judgment. 21.7 Practical suggestions and techniques. 21.8 Summary. 22 System reliability assessment. 22.1 Concepts of system reliability. 22.2 Dependencies among component failures. 22.3 Event tree representations. 22.4 Fault tree representations. 22.5 Simulation approach to system reliability. 22.6 Combined approaches. 22.7 Summary. Appendix A: A primer on probability theory. A.1 Notation and axioms. A.2 Elementary results. A.3 Total probability and Bayes’ theorem. A.4 Discrete distributions. A.5 Continuous distributions. A.6 Multiple variables. A.7 Functions of random variables. References. Index.

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Book SynopsisMechanism design is an analytical framework for thinking clearly and carefully about what exactly a given institution can achieve when the information necessary to make decisions is dispersed and privately held. This analysis provides an account of the underlying mathematics of mechanism design based on linear programming. Three advantages characterize the approach. The first is simplicity: arguments based on linear programming are both elementary and transparent. The second is unity: the machinery of linear programming provides a way to unify results from disparate areas of mechanism design. The third is reach: the technique offers the ability to solve problems that appear to be beyond solutions offered by traditional methods. No claim is made that the approach advocated should supplant traditional mathematical machinery. Rather, the approach represents an addition to the tools of the economic theorist who proposes to understand economic phenomena through the lens of mechanism design.Trade Review'The new book by Vohra is an excellent and most timely introduction into mechanism design. It offers a concise introduction to the theory of mechanism design, currently missing in the literature; it uses linear programming to great benefit to analyze the structure of incentives; and it provides a comprehensive account of the seminal results in auction and mechanism design. A splendid treatment for advanced undergraduate and graduate courses in economic theory!' Dirk Bergemann, Yale University'Rakesh Vohra's exposition of the theory of mechanism design is wonderfully transparent and elegant. This short book equips the reader with a remarkably deep and comprehensive understanding of this important subject.' Tilman Borgers, University of Michigan'Vohra convincingly demonstrates that linear programming can give a powerful and unified perspective on mechanism design, clarifying the ideas and methods underlying existing results, and leading in many cases to greater generality or new findings. Graduate students, researchers in other areas, and experienced mechanism designers will all benefit from this book, which will influence mechanism design research for years to come.' Andrew McLennan, University of Queensland'Professor Vohra's rigorous text is unique in showing how numerous central results in mechanism design can be unified using the methodology of linear programming. His treatment is elegant and original, and it touches the most recent research frontiers.' Benny Moldovanu, University of Bonn'Rakesh Vohra takes the reader from the basics of social choice theory and network flow problems to a deep understanding of optimal incentive systems for complex resource-allocation problems, using the mathematics of linear programming elegantly throughout the book.' Roger Myerson, University of Chicago and 2007 Nobel Laureate'By situating the fundamental questions of social choice, incentive compatibility, and auction design within the theory of linear programming, Vohra is able to address the modern themes of mechanism design in a cohesive manner. The result is inspiring, enjoyable, and extremely compelling.' David Parkes, Harvard University'This beautiful book provides an insightful and useful treatment of the fundamental theorems of social choice and mechanism design from the unifying and powerful perspective of linear programming. A terrific read covering a broad range of topics including a serious and rare treatment of multidimensional mechanism design.' Phillip J. Reny, University of Chicago'The book does not assume any prior knowledge of mechanism design, but requires some familiarity with game theory, linear programming and convex analysis. As such, it is well suited to students and graduates of economic courses, but also to researchers and experienced mechanism designers.' Vangelis Grigoroudis, Zentralblatt MATHTable of Contents1. Introduction; 2. Arrow's theorem and its consequences; 3. Network flow problem; 4. Incentive compatibility; 5. Efficiency; 6. Revenue maximization; 7. Rationalizability.

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Book SynopsisThis book gives a comprehensive introduction to numerical methods and analysis of stochastic processes, random fields and stochastic differential equations, and offers graduate students and researchers powerful tools for understanding uncertainty quantification for risk analysis. Coverage includes traditional stochastic ODEs with white noise forcing, strong and weak approximation, and the multi-level Monte Carlo method. Later chapters apply the theory of random fields to the numerical solution of elliptic PDEs with correlated random data, discuss the Monte Carlo method, and introduce stochastic Galerkin finite-element methods. Finally, stochastic parabolic PDEs are developed. Assuming little previous exposure to probability and statistics, theory is developed in tandem with state-of-the-art computational methods through worked examples, exercises, theorems and proofs. The set of MATLAB codes included (and downloadable) allows readers to perform computations themselves and solve the teTrade Review'This book gives both accessible and extensive coverage on stochastic partial differential equations and their numerical solutions. It offers a well-elaborated background needed for solving numerically stochastic PDEs, both parabolic and elliptic. For the numerical solutions it presents not only proofs of convergence results of different numerical methods but also actual implementations, here in Matlab, with technical details included … With numerical implementations hard to find elsewhere in the literature, and a nice presentation of new research findings together with rich references, the book is a welcome companion for anyone working on numerical solutions of stochastic PDEs, and may also be suitable for use in a course on computational stochastic PDEs.' Roger Pettersson, Mathematical ReviewsTable of ContentsPart I. Deterministic Differential Equations: 1. Linear analysis; 2. Galerkin approximation and finite elements; 3. Time-dependent differential equations; Part II. Stochastic Processes and Random Fields: 4. Probability theory; 5. Stochastic processes; 6. Stationary Gaussian processes; 7. Random fields; Part III. Stochastic Differential Equations: 8. Stochastic ordinary differential equations (SODEs); 9. Elliptic PDEs with random data; 10. Semilinear stochastic PDEs.

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Book SynopsisThe substantially expanded 2003 second edition of this ground-breaking book summarizes theoretical developments in statistical tools to measure financial markets. A classic reference for graduate students and researchers working in econophysics, and professionals in the analytical markets.Trade ReviewFrom reviews of the first edition: '… provides a very useful stepping stone to understand the limitations of the Black-Scholes world to that of a more generalized theory of financial markets … Bouchard and Potters will then provide the reader with an insight and generalization that they may otherwise miss with direct application of more 'traditional' theory to the financial markets. To the experienced reader of financial theory, the book provides a useful reminder of the limitations of traditional theories and a number of useful tools that can be used in the more generalized world of financial risk.' David A. Scott C. Math. FIMA, Mathematics Today'This book does not try to be a comprehensive text on theoretical finance, but instead picks out classical problems in finance that are overlooked by the generalizations introduced by beautiful, ideal models such as the Black and Scholes model and discusses tools, concepts and paradigms of statistical finance that can contribute to the resolution of such problems … However, given the themes treated by the book and the expertise and knowledge of the authors, Theory of Financial Risks should certainly find a place on the bookshelves of professionals in risk management who are interested in new quantitative methods of risk minimization.' Rosario Mantegna, Institute of Physics'The book is well written and self-contained … It is recommended to anyone interested in a new and fresh approach to the dynamics of financial markets.' Journal of Statistical Physics'The authors dutifully thread the relations between different financial securities and statistical estimation, rewarding the reader with an understanding that could never be obtained from a purely statistical text … the feeling one is left with after putting the book down is one of time well spent.' Risk'Coming to the data with fewer preconceptions than those with professional training in finance, and applying sophisticated tools, the authors offer fresh and valuable insights into financial markets.' Mathematical Reviews'This is a terrific book. Some extremely exciting new ideas, questions, and techniques are coming from physics, and many were pioneered by the authors. This book will teach both academics and practitioners a new way of doing finance.' Xavier Gabaix, MIT'An outstanding and original presentation of quantitative finance from a physics perspective.' Nassin Nicholas Taleb, Empirica LLC, author of Fooled by Randomness'It is rare to read a quantitative finance book that has anything new to say. It is even rarer to find such a book written by those who know what they are talking about. Bouchaud and Potters are two of the most innovative, imaginative and experienced researches in finance. In this second edition of their ground-breaking work, they go even further into their field of econo-physics, a field that is changing the way we view the financial markets. Each page is packed with more ideas than most people put into an entire book. An inspirational book to be studied carefully and savoured.' Paul WilmottTable of ContentsForeword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

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Book SynopsisQuantitative risk assessments cannot eliminate risk, nor can they resolve trade-offs. They can, however, guide principled risk management and reduction - if the quality of assessment is high and decision makers understand how to use it. This book builds a unifying scientific framework for discussing and evaluating the quality of risk assessments and whether they are fit for purpose. Uncertainty is a central topic. In practice, uncertainties about inputs are rarely reflected in assessments, with the result that many safety measures are considered unjustified. Other topics include the meaning of a probability, the use of probability models, the use of Bayesian ideas and techniques, and the use of risk assessment in a practical decision-making context. Written for professionals, as well as graduate students and researchers, the book assumes basic probability, statistics and risk assessment methods. Examples make concepts concrete, and three extended case studies show the scientific framewTrade Review'… a timely topic, and a very interesting book … It is very detailed and academically rigorous …' Charles K. Davis, Reviews.com'The book provides a scientific framework apt to evaluate the quality of risk assessments and in particular their flexibility to specifically required purposes … The book gives useful tools for graduate students and researchers as well for professionals.' Zentralblatt MATHTable of ContentsPreface; 1. Introduction to risk management and risk assessments. Challenges; 2. Concepts and perspectives on risk; 3. Science and scientific requirements; 4. Introduction to case studies; 5. Risk assessment when the objective is accurate risk estimation; 6. Risk assessment when the objective is uncertainty descriptions; 7. Risk management and communication issues; 8. Towards a holistic approach to risk assessments; 9. Conclusions; Appendix A. Introduction to probability theory and statistical analysis; Appendix B. Terminology; References; Index.

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Book SynopsisRisk control and derivative pricing have become of major concern to financial institutions, and there is a real need for adequate statistical tools to measure and anticipate the amplitude of the potential moves of the financial markets. Summarising theoretical developments in the field, this 2003 second edition has been substantially expanded. Additional chapters now cover stochastic processes, Monte-Carlo methods, Black-Scholes theory, the theory of the yield curve, and Minority Game. There are discussions on aspects of data analysis, financial products, non-linear correlations, and herding, feedback and agent based models. This book has become a classic reference for graduate students and researchers working in econophysics and mathematical finance, and for quantitative analysts working on risk management, derivative pricing and quantitative trading strategies.Trade ReviewFrom reviews of the first edition: '… provides a very useful stepping stone to understand the limitations of the Black-Scholes world to that of a more generalized theory of financial markets … Bouchard and Potters will then provide the reader with an insight and generalization that they may otherwise miss with direct application of more 'traditional' theory to the financial markets. To the experienced reader of financial theory, the book provides a useful reminder of the limitations of traditional theories and a number of useful tools that can be used in the more generalized world of financial risk.' David A. Scott C. Math. FIMA, Mathematics Today'This book does not try to be a comprehensive text on theoretical finance, but instead picks out classical problems in finance that are overlooked by the generalizations introduced by beautiful, ideal models such as the Black and Scholes model and discusses tools, concepts and paradigms of statistical finance that can contribute to the resolution of such problems … However, given the themes treated by the book and the expertise and knowledge of the authors, Theory of Financial Risks should certainly find a place on the bookshelves of professionals in risk management who are interested in new quantitative methods of risk minimization.' Rosario Mantegna, Institute of Physics'The book is well written and self-contained … It is recommended to anyone interested in a new and fresh approach to the dynamics of financial markets.' Journal of Statistical Physics'The authors dutifully thread the relations between different financial securities and statistical estimation, rewarding the reader with an understanding that could never be obtained from a purely statistical text … the feeling one is left with after putting the book down is one of time well spent.' Risk'Coming to the data with fewer preconceptions than those with professional training in finance, and applying sophisticated tools, the authors offer fresh and valuable insights into financial markets.' Mathematical Reviews'This is a terrific book. Some extremely exciting new ideas, questions, and techniques are coming from physics, and many were pioneered by the authors. This book will teach both academics and practitioners a new way of doing finance.' Xavier Gabaix, MIT'An outstanding and original presentation of quantitative finance from a physics perspective.' Nassin Nicholas Taleb, Empirica LLC, author of Fooled by Randomness'It is rare to read a quantitative finance book that has anything new to say. It is even rarer to find such a book written by those who know what they are talking about. Bouchaud and Potters are two of the most innovative, imaginative and experienced researches in finance. In this second edition of their ground-breaking work, they go even further into their field of econo-physics, a field that is changing the way we view the financial markets. Each page is packed with more ideas than most people put into an entire book. An inspirational book to be studied carefully and savoured.' Paul WilmottTable of ContentsForeword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

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Book SynopsisWhy is it that incredibly unlikely phenomena actually happen quite regularly and why should we, in fact, expect such things to happen? Here, in this highly original book - aimed squarely at anyone with an interest in coincidences, probability or gambling - eminent statistician David Hand answers this question by weaving together various strands of probability into a unified explanation, which he calls the improbability principle.This is a book that will appeal not only to those who love stories about startling coincidences and extraordinarily rare events, but also to those who are interested in how a single bold idea links areas as diverse as gambling, the weather, airline disasters and creative writing as well as the origin of life and even the universe. The Improbability Principle will change your perspective on how the world works and tell you what the Bible code and Shakespeare have in common, how to win the lottery, why Apple''s song shuffling was made less random to seem more random. Oh and why lightning does in fact strike twice...Trade ReviewA hugely entertaining eye-opener about how misuse of statistics can skew our view of the world * Daily Mail *Lively and lucid . . . an intensely useful (as well as a remarkably entertaining) book . . . * Salon *In my experience, it is very rare to find a book that is both erudite and entertaining. Yet The Improbability Principle is such a book. Surely this cannot be due to chance alone! -- Hal Varian, Google’s Chief EconomistAn elegant, astoundingly clear and enjoyable combination of subtle statistical thinking and real-world events. -- Andrew Dilnot, co-author of 'The Numbers Game'As someone who happened to meet his future wife on a plane, on an airline he rarely used, I wholeheartedly endorse David Hand’s fascinating guide to improbability, a subject which affects the lives of all, yet until now has lacked a coherent exposition of its underlying principles. -- Gordon Woo, catastrophist at Risk Management Solutions

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Book SynopsisProjects overspend and overrun. Business cases perform less well than expected. Managers tighten their grip and initiate more procedure. But little changes and the scenario repeats, and it has done so for decades. Losing other peoples' money and goodwill is almost an innate characteristic of projects. This may be a norm but it need not be the natural state of affairs. In Project Risk Analysis, Derek Salkeld shows how easily assimilated techniques developed out of formal risk analysis methods can be used to increase the chances of projects being delivered to the oft quoted objective of on time and to budget, to quality and to popular acceptance. These techniques need to be understood by managers so that they can foresee the benefits of directing their teams to carry them out, and so they can inform their clients about the potential consequences of the investments they wish to make and how the project team plan to assure these. The three parts of the book explain how you can: calcTrade Review’The book provides a multitude of aids to help with determining risks, identifying costs, and how the risks affect the schedule. These aids include examples, areas to address and checklists... it stresses the importance of tying risks to people through assignment of ownership and risks to the project budget through allocation of contingences.... The project management and risk management professions may get a better reputation because of projects getting completed at a higher rate and on time and within budget.’ PM World Journal, September 2013 ’Derek Salkeld’s book is about understanding the uncertainty inherent in projects, which leads to the inability to predict timescales and costs precisely at the beginning of a project. In an industry where even large companies are wedded to single-valued estimating techniques, against which they may enter fixed-price contracts with penalties for lateness, (or judge the performance of the project delivery staff), the content of this book provides valuable material to help manage expectations, obligations, and funding.’ Camel Blog (Arras People), January 2015Table of Contents1: Introduction; 1: The Case for Risk Analysis; 2: Risk Modelling Primitives; 3: Risk Modelling Examples: Cost Context; 4: Risk Modelling Examples: Time; 5: Using Risk Analysis to Inform the Allocation of Risk Ownership; 6: Using Risk Analysis to Derive the Risk Management Strategy; 7: A Risk Analysis Process; Conclusion

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Book SynopsisDrawing on examples ranging from military history to the business world, a retired four-star general in the U.S. Army offers a battle-tested system for detecting and responding to risk, showing that there are in fact ten dimensions of control we can adjust at any given time.

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Book SynopsisThe first edition of this book, published in 1982, was a pioneer in the development of logical, yet simple, analytic tools for discussion of the risks which we all face. This new edition, revised, expanded, and illustrated in detail, should be of value both to professionals in the field and to those who wish to understand these vital issues.Trade ReviewThis book provides a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of the methodology for assessing and managing risks. Based on well-developed lectures given for many years at the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis and written by both an academic and a practitioner in this rapidly evolving field, it contains clear explanations, excellent examples, and duality figures and tables...The best yet on this topic. -- S. A. Batterman * Choice *

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Book SynopsisPresents an overview of financial risk modeling, with a focus on practical applications, empirical reality, and historical perspective. Covering the mean-variance analysis and the capital asset pricing model, this title offers an account of factor models, which are the key to successful risk analysis in every economic climate.Trade Review"Thorough and well-cited, this is a comprehensive treatment of techniques for portfolio risk management. It provides a unique perspective, from the fundamentals to practical applications. There are few books that cover this material in this particular way."—Christopher L. Culp, author of Structured Finance and Insurance"The range of topics is wide and the coverage is deep. An impressive book."—Peter Christoffersen, McGill University"The conceptual framework of this book is presented in a lucid and clear manner. The treatment is mathematically rigorous where it matters, without ever becoming pedantic and without cutting corners."—Riccardo Rebonato, Royal Bank of Scotland"This book takes major steps forward in the crucially important area of portfolio risk measurement, making significant strides toward incorporating industry and country risk, as well as macroeconomic, FX, credit, transactions cost, and liquidity risks. It will be an essential reference text for academics, central bankers, and others in the financial services industry."—Francis X. Diebold, University of PennsylvaniaTable of ContentsAcknowledgments xi Introduction xiii Key Notation xix Chapter 1: Measures of Risk and Return 1 1.1 Measuring Return 1 1.2 The Key Portfolio Risk Measures 6 1.3 Risk-Return Preferences and Portfolio Optimization 12 1.4 The Capital Asset Pricing Model and Its Applications to Risk Analysis 23 1.5 The Objectives and Limitations of Portfolio Risk Analysis 31 Chapter 2: Unstructured Covariance Matrices 36 2.1 Estimating Return Covariance Matrices 36 2.2 The Error-Maximization Problem 47 2.3 Portfolio Choice as Decision Making under Uncertainty 54 Chapter 3: Industry and Country Risk 61 3.1 Industry-Country Component Models 61 3.2 Empirical Evidence on the Relative Magnitudes of Country and Industry Risks 73 3.3 Sector-Currency Models of Corporate Bond Returns 77 Chapter 4: Statistical Factor Analysis 79 4.1 Types of Factor Models 79 4.2 Approximate Factor Models 82 4.3 The Arbitrage Pricing Theory 86 4.4 Small-n Estimation Methods 88 4.5 Large-n Estimation Methods 93 4.6 Number of Factors 98 Chapter 5: The Macroeconomy and Portfolio Risk 101 5.1 Estimating Macroeconomic Factor Models 101 5.2 Event Studies of Macroeconomic Announcements 110 5.3 Macroeconomic Policy Endogeneity 112 5.4 Business Cycle Betas 115 5.5 Empirical Fit and the Relative Value of Macroeconomic Factor Models 116 Chapter 6: Security Characteristics and Pervasive Risk Factors 117 6.1 Equity and Fixed-Income Characteristics 117 6.2 Characteristic-Based Factor Models of Equities 122 6.3 The Fama-French Model and Extensions 130 6.4 The Semiparametric Approach to Characteristic-Based Factor Models 132 Chapter 7: Measuring and Hedging Foreign Exchange Risk 134 7.1 Definitions of Foreign Exchange Risk 134 7.2 Optimal Currency Hedging 142 7.3 Currency Covariances with Stock and Bond Returns 149 7.4 Macroeconomic Influences on Currency Returns 151 Chapter 8: Integrated Risk Models 155 8.1 Global and Regional Integration Trends 155 8.2 Risk Integration across Asset Classes 158 8.3 Segmented Asset Allocation and Security Selection 159 8.4 Integrated Risk Models 162 Chapter 9: Dynamic Volatilities and Correlations 167 9.1 GARCH Models 167 9.2 Stochastic Volatility Models 178 9.3 Time Aggregation 180 9.4 Downside Correlation 181 9.5 Option-Implied Volatility 184 9.6 The Volatility Term Structure at Long Horizons 187 9.7 Time-Varying Cross-Sectional Dispersion 188 Chapter 10: Portfolio Return Distributions 191 10.1 Characterizing Return Distributions 191 10.2 Estimating Return Distributions 196 10.3 Tail Risk 203 10.4 Nonlinear Dependence between Asset Returns 207 Chapter 11: Credit Risk 212 11.1 Agency Ratings and Factor Models of Spread Risk 213 11.2 Rating Transitions and Default 217 11.3 Credit Instruments 218 11.4 Conceptual Approaches to Credit Risk 220 11.5 Recovery at Default 232 11.6 Portfolio Credit Models 232 11.7 The 2007-8 Credit-Liquidity Crisis 238 Chapter 12: Transaction Costs and Liquidity Risk 241 12.1 Some Basic Terminology 241 12.2 Measuring Transactions Cost 246 12.3 Statistical Properties of Liquidity 261 12.4 Optimal Trading Strategies and Transaction Costs 266 Chapter 13: Alternative Asset Classes 271 13.1 Nonsynchronous Pricing and Smoothed Returns 271 13.2 Time-Varying Risk, Nonlinear Payoff, and Style Drift 284 13.3 Selection and Survivorship Biases 291 13.4 Collectibles: Measuring Return and Risk with Infrequent and Error-Prone Observations 295 13.5 Summary 298 Chapter 14: Performance Measurement 299 14.1 Return-Based Performance Measurement 299 14.2 Holdings-Based Performance Measurement and Attribution 303 14.3 Volatility Forecast Evaluation 309 14.4 Value-at-Risk Hit Rates 316 14.5 Forecast and Realized Return Densities 317 Chapter 15: Conclusion 319 15.1 Some Key Messages 319 15.2 Questions for Future Research 320 References 323 Index 345

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Book SynopsisIntroduces a more realistic and holistic framework called KuU - the Known, the unknown, and the Unknowable - that enables one to conceptualize the different kinds of financial risks and design effective strategies for managing them.Trade ReviewWinner of the 2012 Kulp-Wright Book Award, American Risk and Insurance Association Finalist for the 2010 Paul A. Samuelson Award, TIAA-CREF "It is a bold book, tackling both theory and practice and spanning the worlds of (among others) banking, insurance, real estate, and investment. It is also utterly engrossing... Although this book is most obviously addressed to risk managers and regulators, I think it should be read by every intellectually curious person with skin in the financial game. If the investor or trader doesn't come away with at least one or two ideas of practical importance to his financial life, he is a 'sleepreader.'"--Brenda Jubin, Reading the Markets blog "Peppered with anecdotes and prominent examples, the book never abandons the practical side of its topic. It will be helpful for readers interested in only specific subtopics that each article is a stand-alone piece. I recommend this book to a wide audience: academics and practitioners, of course, but even people who are not directly involved in the financial sector, but are interested in it, will find it definitely worth their time."--Tobias Nigbur, Financial Markets and Portfolio ManagementTable of ContentsPreface vii Chapter 1: Introduction by Francis X. Diebold, Neil A. Doherty, and Richard J. Herring 1 Chapter 2: Risk: A Decision Maker's Perspective by Sir Clive W. J. Granger 31 Chapter 3: Mild vs. Wild Randomness: Focusing on Those Risks That Matter by Benoit B. Mandelbrot and Nassim Nicholas Taleb 47 Chapter 4: The Term Structure of Risk, the Role of Known and Unknown Risks, and Nonstationary Distributions by Riccardo Colacito and Robert F. Engle 59 Chapter 5: Crisis and Noncrisis Risk in Financial Markets: A Unified Approach to Risk Management by Robert H. Litzenberger and David M. Modest 74 Chapter 6: What We Know, Don't Know, and Can't Know about Bank Risk: A View from the Trenches by Andrew Kuritzkes and Til Schuermann 103 Chapter 7: Real Estate through the Ages: The Known, the Unknown, and the Unknowable by Ashok Bardhan and Robert H. Edelstein 145 Chapter 8: Reflections on Decision-making under Uncertainty by Paul R. Kleindorfer 164 Chapter 9: O n the Role of Insurance Brokers in Resolving the Known, the Unknown, and the Unknowable by Neil A. Doherty and Alexander Muermann 194 Chapter 10: Insuring against Catastrophes by Howard Kunreuther and Mark V. Pauly 210 Chapter 11: Managing Increased Capital Markets Intensity: The Chief Financial Officer's Role in Navigating the Known, the Unknown, and the Unknowable by Charles N. Bralver and Daniel Borge 239 Chapter 12: The Role of Corporate Governance in Coping with Risk and Unknowns by Kenneth E. Scott 277 Chapter 13: Domestic Banking Problems by Charles A. E. Goodhart 286 Chapter 14: Crisis Management: The Known, The Unknown, and the Unknowable by Donald L. Kohn 296 Chapter 15: Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable by Richard J. Zeckhauser 304 List of Contributors 347 Index 359

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Book SynopsisTen lessons from history on the dos and don'ts of analyzing political riskOur baffling new multipolar world grows ever more complex, desperately calling for new ways of thinking, particularly when it comes to political risk. To Dare More Boldly provides those ways, telling the story of the rise of political risk analysis, both as a discipline aTrade Review"This is a compelling read, rich in insights and alternately courageous and outrageous."---A. W. Purdue, Times Higher Education"A consistently interesting history of political risk analysis."---Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution"John Hulsman is one of those alarming polymaths who appear to have read nearly everything, seem to remember most of it and then are able to put all that information to work, making it leap through a vast range of entertaining intellectual hoops to find answers to questions that matter a great deal, the key one being: What is really happening in the world and what does it mean?"---James Hansen, Aspenia"[A] discursive, interesting, insightful book."---I. William Zartman, Rest Journal"[A] discursive, interesting, insightful book"---William Zartman, The Rest

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"Winner of the Bronze Medal in Business Technology, Axiom Business Book Awards""I loved this book. . . . Trading at the Speed of Light is an amazing, detailed account of why material reality matters for virtual outcomes, and conversely, in the financial markets. Everybody with the slightest interest in modern finance should read it."---Diane Coyle, Enlightened Economist

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Book SynopsisThe aim of this work is to reduce the risks of medical treatment and enhance the safety of patients in all areas of healthcare. The first section discusses the incidence of harm to patients, while other sections examine features of the healthcare systems that are essential to safe practice.Trade Review"Recommended for all in health care because safety has always been an issue." (Eye News, 2011) "Therefore I believe that this book should be read by anyone involved in, or responsible for healthcare . . . This makes a compelling case to benefit from the safety and quality improvement approaches described in the book." (The Bulletin of the Royal College of Pathologists, 1 July 2011)Table of ContentsUnderstanding adverse events. Errors and adverse events in medicine. The development of risk management. Clinical governance. Reducing risks in obstetrics. Reducing risks in paediatrics. Risk management in anaesthesia. Risk management in surgery. Risk management in A&E medicine. Reducing risks in hospital general medicine. Risk management in clinical oncology. Risk management in psychiatry. Risk management in general practice. Communicating risk. Guidelines and pathways. The role of human factors engineering. Working time, stress and fatigue. Training and supervision. Teams, culture and managing risk. Creating and maintaining safe systems. Impementation of risk management. Clinical incident reporting. Investigation and analysis of adverse events. Caring for patients harmed by treatment. Supporting staff. Dealing with complaints. Resolving disputes. Claims management

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Book SynopsisWei Ning Zechariah Wong PhD MBCI CBCP is a principal consultant at Atkins providing business continuity management solutions to organizations across a range of sectors. He is one of the leading experts at the British Standards Institution (BSI), where he contributed to the development of the world's first business continuity standard BS 25999. He has written for several journals in the area including Continuity Journal and Disaster Recovery Journal.Dr. Jianping Shi is a highly experienced business and investment consultant with over 20 years' experience. She has worked in various sectors including financial services and management consultancies and she has a strong background in corporate strategic planning, asset management, risk management and business continuity management. She is Chief Executive of Instramax, which is an international provider of business continuity services.Trade Review"This Business Continuity Management System guide provides clear and easy to navigate guidance on how to implement the ISO 22301 management system requirements. Its chapter overviews, check lists, tables and figures are all put to great use in making this complex and vital subject easy to digest. As you delve into subjects such as 'Business Impact Analysis' information like the strengths and weaknesses analysis of 'information collection methods' really do help to make sure you get the detail right, you feel as if you gain the benefit of expert experience very quickly. This book works on a number of levels which all good system guides need to, I can delve in and out effortlessly, get in-depth guidance on areas I'm unsure of, find all the practical advice quickly or completely engross myself for a fuller understanding. When Business Continuity Management Systems are something you do alongside a role like Quality a guide like this is really invaluable. I felt guidance around documentation could have benefited from worked examples having seen how easy it is for documented plans to become unusable in real world scenarios. The section on Performance Evaluation however more than makes up for this probably being the best 27 pages on the subject you will ever read. I've previously developed business continuity plans working directly from the standard, as these plans are updated and new ones developed I can imagine this book right by my side along with my copy of ISO 22301 providing assurance and confidence that I'm approaching this incredibly important subject with all the care it deserves. If you are in charge of your organizations business continuity efforts or simply thinking about making your business more secure I would recommend this book as a valuable resource." * Darren O’Neill, Quality Advisor at CGG *Table of Contents Chapter - 00: Introduction; Chapter - 01: Fundamentals of business continuity management; Chapter - 02: Business continuity management system; Chapter - 03: Context of the organization; Chapter - 04: Leadership; Chapter - 05: Planning; Chapter - 06: Support; Chapter - 07: Operation; Chapter - 08: Performance evaluation; Chapter - 09: Improvement; Chapter - 10: Conclusion

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Book SynopsisDr Keith Blacker has worked in a variety of board and executive roles globally and is the former CFO of a large UK-based health insurance business. He has over 30 years' experience working within the financial services industry and has consulted to a range of national and international banks and insurance companies on risk management matters. He is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales and a Fellow of the UK Institute of Internal Auditors. Dr Patrick McConnell has been a senior manager in, and a consultant to, large international corporations, financial institutions and governments on multiple continents for over 35 years. His expertise is in risk management and information technology. He is a Fellow of BCS, the Chartered Institute for IT. He has taught in Australia and Ireland to advanced students and in-house executives.Both authors hold doctorates in Business Administration and have published and spoken widely in industry and academic Trade Review"An expertly written book, it takes you to the heart of the risk problem - people. The best systems, the most up to date software, the most meticulous risk mitigation plan, all can be circumvented by human ingenuity. Via case studies and analytical framing the authors review, analyse and most usefully prescribe how people risk can be minimized but never eliminated. People Risk is not a HR function but a holistic framework of thinking and this book exposes you to it." * Brian Lucey, Professor of Finance, Trinity College Dublin *"I recommend this book to experienced risk managers because it tackles some very difficult areas from a broad knowledge base, builds on the work of other's research and introduces some new concepts. I would put a slight caveat to the less experienced risk practitioner because it is important to understand how people risk management should sit within a wider risk management framework. The book leaves the impression that people risk is the principal cause for all ills, however, root cause analysis consistently finds that there is usually more than one factor present for risks to materialise." * Jane Walde, Director of The Holistic Risk Practice (for RMProfessional) *"People Risk Management by McConnell and Blacker is a book that has been sorely needed for some time. For too long risk practitioners, as a whole, have underplayed the role that people risk can have in an organisation. Given that the major events of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 were a result of people, both in senior and junior positions, making poor decisions for a variety of reasons, it is time that people risk is given much more prominence. And it's not just a matter of risk culture, as McConnell and Blacker successfully argue. More attention needs to be paid to making a more robust decision making process, especially at senior levels. For the practitioner, this book offers more than an overview of the risk and some case studies; a framework for managing people risk, and proposals for increasing the quality of people risk management from the Boardroom to the individual worker make a valuable resource. This is a book that I wish I'd written." * Frank Ashe, Macquarie University *"Among the many carefully reasoned observations in the wide field of risk management and its focus on People Risk, this book highlights the important roles of Human Resources which extend beyond its established domains of recruitment, selection, training, development and rewarding. The authors' detailed analyses persuasively render indispensable the wider remit of HR. The book, however, goes beyond HR. It prompts the governance functions into ensuring that people risks are included in every assignment they undertake, it argues that senior management are at the front line of promoting personal responsibility and managing people risk and it tells the board that people risks, not only need managing in the organisation, but they also need managing in the boardroom." * Bill Weinstein, Emeritus Professor of International Business, Henley Business School *"It has long been appreciated that effective human resource management systems are an essential part of organisational success, however it is much less well understood that people can still bring down even the most successful organisations. Scratch beneath the surface and even apparently well run organisations can be found to have significant people risk exposures - often because they lack the necessary knowledge and expertise to manage this complex and diverse area of risk. Blacker and McConnell, two of the leading lights in people risk management, have delivered a must-read text for all senior managers and board members in organisations - combining practical insights with strong academic foundations. The book is also an important addition to the book shelves of students and academics with an interest in the human aspects of risk management." * Simon Ashby, Associate Professor at Plymouth University, and Chairman, Institute of Operational Risk *Table of Contents Chapter - 01: People Risk in context; Chapter - 02: Definition and models of People Risk; Chapter - 03: The human dimension of People Risk; Chapter - 04: Case studies in People Risk; Chapter - 05: People Risk Management Framework; Chapter - 06: People Risk in the boardroom; Chapter - 07: The influence of organizational culture; Chapter - 08: Roles and responsibilities; Chapter - 09: Improving decision-making; Chapter - 10: Personal responsibility; Chapter - 11: Conclusion

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Book SynopsisAnthony Fitzsimmons is Chairman of Reputability LLP and an authority and leading thinker on reputational risk and the propensity of behavioural and organizational risks to cause reputational damage. Derek Atkins BSc PhD MIMMM CEng FCIM FCII Chartered Insurer was a visiting Professor at Cass Business School, London, teaching risk management, reputational risk, and insurance, and a partner in Reputability LLP. He was the co-author of a dozen books.Trade Review"An exceptional book for learning at every level - whether you are a business school student or a chief executive; Prime Minister or a new recruit into the civil service." * Lord Owen CH FRCP, Former UK Foreign Secretary and author of 'The Hubris Syndrome' *"The authors have examined trust in business through the lens of reputational risk and identified themes that really matter. Their well-illustrated commentary is good read for business leaders at all levels." * Dame Alison Carnwath, Company Chair, Audit Committee Chair, NED and Supervisory board member *"This book is written in the riveting style worthy of a subject often overlooked. The authors' discussion of collateral damage and guilt by association was especially intriguing." * Senator Bob Graham, Co-Chairman of the National Presidential Commission on the Deepwater Horizon Disaster *"The authors highlight the role of culture and conduct and of the wider responsibilities of organisations to their customers and to the public. I much endorse their recommendations to business leaders. It is instructive to see this subject handled with such conviction and clarity." * Sir Winfried Bischoff, Chairman, Financial Reporting Council *"The authors show why the most valuable core competence for leaders everywhere is the ability to understand how people actually feel, think and behave, and how to manage risks from people effectively. This is just as important for government and the public sector as for private sector organisations." * Richard Bacon MP, Deputy Chairman, House of Commons Public Accounts Committee *"This thoroughly enjoyable book is a must-read for leaders of all organizations at all levels, right up to the board and its leadership." * Dr Kiyoshi Kurokuwa, Chairman of the Independent Investigation Commission of Fukushima Nuclear Accident by the National Diet of Japan *"I very much welcome this book as a comprehensive and insightful study into one of the most critical but often neglected aspects of risk management - reputational risk." * John Hurrell, Chief Executive of AIRMIC *"Rethinking Reputational Risk is an excellent contribution to the understanding of reputation as a key indicator of the quality of a company's leadership, culture and material stakeholder relationships." * Colin Melvin, Head of Global Stewardship, Hermes Investment Management *"This book will be chastening reading for company board members. Other readers will be fascinated, and also horrified, by the systematic risk-blindness of those who oversee our largest and most powerful companies." * Professor Andrew Hopkins, author of 'Risky Rewards: How company bonuses affect safety’ *Table of Contents Section - ONE: Rethinking Chapter - 01: Introduction Chapter - 02: Reputation Basics Chapter - 03: How Reputations are lost Chapter - 04: What is Reputational Risk? Chapter - 05: The hole in Classical Risk Management Chapter - 06: Stakeholder Behaviour Chapter - 07: Risks from failing to communicate and learn Chapter - 08: Character, Culture and Ethos Chapter - 09: Incentives Chapter - 10: Complexity Chapter - 11: Board composition, Skill, Knowledge, Experience and Behaviour Chapter - 12: Risks from Strategy and Change Chapter - 13: Incubation and complacency Chapter - 14: The special role – and Risks – of leaders Section - TWO: Case studies Chapter - 15: BP: Texas City Explosion Chapter - 16: BP: Deepwater Horizon Chapter - 17: Tesco PLC Chapter - 18: American International Group (AIG) Chapter - 19: EADS Airbus A380 Chapter - 21: Volkswagen Chapter - 22: Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust (Stafford Hospital) Section - THREE: Practicalities Chapter - 23: The way forward Chapter - 24: System Basics – Getting to ‘go’ Chapter - 25: Setting up the Reputational Risk Management System Chapter - 26: Operating the Reputational Risk Management System

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Book SynopsisDomenic is a practicing Chief Risk Officer and senior risk, governance and compliance consultant. An Australian expatriate based in Dubai UAE, Domenic specializes in bringing organizations 'up the risk maturity curve' and building risk practitioner tools for implementing ERM, ISO 31000:2009 and COSO ERM. Formerly with Marsh Risk Consulting, Shell and Red Cross, he enjoys over 30 years experience in risk, strategic planning and business management across many sectors in Europe, Africa, Middle East, Asia and Australia-Pacific. A regular international conference presenter and author, he is the content author for various risk maturity model software releases. These include Benchmarker risk maturity model, the first tool to self-assess risk management effectiveness through a set of capabilities expected to be delivered by a head of risk and cross-walked to both ISO 31000 and COSO ERM. His book Risk Maturity Models is the first to focus on this important topic.Trade Review"We live and work in an increasingly complex, faster moving and connected world. The risk landscape faced by organisations today and in the future is increasingly one made up of intangible risks - risks typically more difficult to assess and control than more 'traditional' physical risks. Intangible risks demand an enterprise risk management ("ERM") approach - archaic risk silos have no place in this world - cyber is not just an IT risk, people are not just an HR risk. Risk management is at the top of the board room agenda and organisations are seeking ways in which they can evaluate and benchmark their ERM maturity. This authoritative book by Domenic Antonucci, a recognised international thought leader in the space of risk maturity is a welcome addition to every risk professional's tool kit. The book follows a logical approach and is packed with information designed to explain risk maturity and to help risk professionals use this technique in support of their position as risk leaders and trusted risk advisors." * Julia Graham, AIRMIC Ltd *"Risk management maturity models enable organizations to gauge the development and evolution of their risk management practices. Dominic Antonucci's Risk Maturity Models stands out from other risk management texts on this topic because it provides very practical guidance, supported by numerous case studies. The book brings to life the benefits of risk maturity models when effectively applied and is simple but effective in its approach." * Nicola Crawford, IRM UK Board member *"For years Domenic has been one of the leading thinkers on risk management maturity models. Now he's sharing his thoughts in a book that can help others use maturity models as a means to advance risk management maturity. Risk Maturity Models should be in the library of every risk management practitioner who's looking to advance their risk management capabilities." * Paul Sobel, IA ex Chairman, Vice President/Chief Audit Executive IIA Global *"Risk maturity models are useful to organizations that want to compare their current state of risk management capability to an appropriate target level. With his book, Domenic Antonucci offers risk practitioners not only a comprehensive review of existing risk maturity models, but also a method to build one that will satisfy the specific needs of any organization." * Ghislain Giroux Dufort, President at Baldwin Global Risk Strategies Inc. *"Risk Maturity is currently a hot topic within the Risk Management discipline, being mentioned in various books, standards as well as being discussed at length in conferences across the globe. Up until this book however, there have been a lack of publications on the topic. Domenic Antonucci provides a detailed insight into the history of Risk Maturity Models and their benefits. The book is relevant to all organizations implementing risk management who are seeking more information on risk maturity models, whether they believe themselves to be "best in class", and looking for a way to measure their risk maturity, or having only recently started their Risk Management Journey and looking for a roadmap to help guide them to increased levels of maturity." * Alexander Larsen BHRM, FIRM Risk & Controls Co-Ordinator – West Qurna Project *"Risk management is often portrayed as a subject impenetrable to those who work outside the discipline, with jargon and techniques obscuring the real value that risk-based decision making can bring to organisations. Domenic Antonucci's book changes all this. Through a wealth of practical experience and accessible examples, Dom shows how anyone can measure, review and indeed improve the level of risk maturity in their organisation. With techniques that can be used both in commercial businesses and in public and third sector organisations anywhere in the world, this book is relevant to you. Indeed, whether you manage risk directly, or influence the way it's exploited, you'll find this guide of real and lasting value." * Steve Fowler, Managing Director at Amarreurs Consulting Ltd, Ex-CEO at the Institute of Risk Management *Table of Contents Section - 01: Background to risk maturity models; Section - 02: The case for a risk maturity model; Section - 03: Comparing risk maturity models against each other; Section - 04: Tailoring and benchmarking a risk maturity model; Section - 05: Designing a tailored risk maturity model; Section - 06: How risk, audit and board functions benefit from risk maturity; Section - 07: Summary of risk maturity models from practitioner perspectives;

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Book SynopsisMatthew Whalley has a unique blend of practical experience and strategic insight into legal risk management and law department operations. He created the UK's first and only Legal Risk Consultancy in 2012, and has helped FTSE 100 and Fortune 500 clients take their first steps to develop a structured approach to legal risk. He was short-listed for the Laurie Young Memorial Global Thought Leadership award in 2014 for his papers on legal risk management.Chris Guzelian is an Associate Professor at Thomas Jefferson Law School in San Diego, California, USA, where he teaches business, criminal, and American constitutional law courses. Previously he was a state prosecutor, a civilian officer with the U.S. Department of Defense, and a lawyer with the U.S. bankruptcy courts. Chris advises a number of corporate, non-profit, and government authorities on risk-related matters.Trade Review"The Legal Risk Management Handbook contains a wealth of information useful for any company involved in international business to consider when managing legal risk. What sets this book apart is that it translates complex legal principles into practical operating tools that business managers and the lawyers who work with them can use on a day-to-day basis. An indispensable compendium for the legal and compliance team, the executive suite and the boardroom who must work hard to ensure that legal risk management is at the top of the agenda in every organization." * Professor Stuart Weinstein, Faculty of Business and Law, Coventry University *"A must-read for in-house lawyers and new general counsels. I particularly like the simple and practical guides to implement what are quite advanced legal risk management techniques." * Simon Nasta, General Counsel, FBN UK *"Legal risk management needs to become fully integrated with the practice of law. With this book, Matthew Whalley and Chris Guzelian enable in-house lawyers to get to grips with one of the least understood areas of legal practice. A must-read for General Counsel who want to articulate the value their team delivers, for Chief Compliance Officers who want to work more effectively with legal colleagues to deliver effective regulatory compliance programmes, and for any legal practitioner who operates within or delivers services to a risk-managed environment." * Neil Braakenburg, EMEA Head of Compliance, AIG Europe (and former UK Head of Legal, AIG Europe) *"This book challenges all organizations to review legal risk management strategy and provides practical suggestions on how to flex their approach to enhance legislative and regulatory compliance. All those in leadership or front line advisory roles will relate to the issues raised and can benefit from the proposed solutions to manage their forward exposures to legal loss." * Matthew Kellett, EY UK Law Leader, FSO *"Easy to read and dares to delve not just into the practical application of the law but the world of ethics and conduct and the role of lawyers to manage such. A valuable addition to the literature on legal risk." * Prof. Richard Moorhead, Professor of Law and Professional Ethics, Director of the Centre for Ethics and Law, UCL *"Legal risk management is often still seen as a niche discipline, but I believe it has great potential once it is adopted more broadly. One of the problems is that many practitioners do not even know what this nascent discipline entails and what they should learn to start practising it. This book is a very good starting point because it offers useful practical guidelines and illustrating cases. Thanks to their professional experiences with practising legal risk management, the authors are uniquely qualified for offering such guidance." * Professor Tobias Mahler, Norwegian Research Center for Computers and Law, Faculty of Law, University of Oslo *"In-house legal teams are facing major challenges. We need more books like this." * Ashley Gordon, Head of Legal, EMEA *Table of Contents Section - 01: A general guide to legal risk management and reporting; Chapter - 01: The business case for legal risk: How to articulate legal risk to your business; Chapter - 02: Big picture legal risk management: Corporate governance, values and policy; Chapter - 03: Evidence you’re in control: How to identify, quantify and report legal risk; Section - 02: An in-depth review of legal risk and how to mitigate it; Chapter - 04: Legislative/regulatory risk and the role of legal and compliance; Chapter - 05: Non-contractual obligations: Ethics, conduct and duty of care; Chapter - 06: Contract risk; Chapter - 07: Dispute risk; Chapter - 08: Non-contractual rights risk: Intellectual property: the gateway to your customer;

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Book SynopsisDr Roger Miles researches behavioural risk and the impacts of conduct regulation. He counsels Boards on human risk factors and uncertainty, and delivers bespoke risk workshops for leadership groups in government, NGOs and the professions. He teaches risk-related psychology at graduate schools including Cambridge University and the UK Defence Academy. He co-edits the LSE's annual Behavioural Economics Guide and publishes best practice guidance notes through professional bodies including British Bankers' Association (BBA), the Association of British Insurers (ABI), Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) and the Institute of Operational Risk (IOR).Trade Review"With the latest shocks to unsettle the predictable and rational world of deterministic and logical data-driven assumptions analysis, culminating in our inability to foresee Brexit and the rise of Donald Trump, financial practitioners would be well advised to pick up, discuss and take note of the behavioural approaches outlined in Dr Miles's Conduct Risk Management. The tools in here will help practitioners get themselves 'match fit' for managing risk in a world where almost everything you thought you knew may turn out to be wrong." * Dr David Hancock, Director HM Government Cabinet Office – Infrastructure and Projects Authority; former Head of Risk for TfL *"Dr Miles has important and timely lessons for the effective management of corporate risk, but this book goes well beyond a narrow risk focus and, with its application of and insights from behavioural science, will be of interest to students and practitioners of ethics, culture and conduct in financial services and, indeed, more widely. I'd encourage all bankers, regulators and students to read this book, which balances well academic study with practical, real-world lessons and conclusions." * Simon Thompson, Chief Executive, Chartered Banker Institute *"A refreshingly enjoyable read, but more than that, a timely expert insight into why and how the financial sector has to change fundamentally the way it engages with politics and public goods. This change of outlook has implications far beyond financial markets - there are valuable lessons for policy-making at the highest level." * Matthew Taylor, Chief Executive, RSA; Head of the Prime Minister’s Employment Law Review, 2016 *"A lively, interesting and very practical guide to understanding how regulators think, and getting on the front foot ahead of conduct risk. Using Dr Miles's techniques to 'work risk-aware' makes good business sense, is highly engaging for all business people and is certainly a better basis for effective compliance than old fashioned box-ticking." * Scott Wallace, Chief Risk Officer and Executive Director – Governance, Legal, Risk & Compliance *"Many practitioners are at a loss how to deal with Conduct Risk, yet clearly it's a vital topic to understand, now that the threat of prosecution hangs daily over every senior manager. Roger Miles is one of the very few genuinely expert sources on what the science of 'behavioural regulation' means for day-to-day business practice. This is a great opportunity to gather his insights, and enjoy his lively curiosity about where regulation comes from and will take us to next." * Donald Macrae, Senior Consultant on Regulatory Reform, World Bank *"Roger Miles has done an excellent job of animating and explaining in plain English this challenging area of regulation. His book should therefore be essential reading for any compliance and risk professional in order that they better understand the nature of conduct risk and how to mitigate the risks arising." * Brian Harte, Managing Director, Berkeley Research Group; former Group Head of Compliance and Regulatory Affairs, Barclays *Table of Contents Chapter - 01: Time for a Fresh Approach; Chapter - 02: Behavioural Science Sets Regulators Thinking…; Chapter - 03: The Onset of Financial Conduct Regulation; Chapter - 04: Why Regulators had to Change Direction; Chapter - 05: The Roots of Misconduct; Chapter - 06: The Politics of Prosecution; Chapter - 07: Establishing What Your ‘Good Behaviour Looks Like’; Chapter - 08: The ‘Behavioural Lens’, Part 1; Chapter - 09: The ‘Behavioural Lens’, Part 2; Chapter - 10: Looking Back, Looking Ahead

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Book SynopsisDr Keith Blacker has worked in a variety of board and executive roles globally and is the former CFO of a large UK-based health insurance business. He has over 30 years' experience working within the financial services industry and has consulted to a range of national and international banks and insurance companies on risk management matters. He is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales and a Fellow of the UK Institute of Internal Auditors. Dr Patrick McConnell has been a senior manager in, and a consultant to, large international corporations, financial institutions and governments on multiple continents for over 35 years. His expertise is in risk management and information technology. He is a Fellow of BCS, the Chartered Institute for IT. He has taught in Australia and Ireland to advanced students and in-house executives.Both authors hold doctorates in Business Administration and have published and spoken widely in industry and academic Trade Review"An expertly written book, it takes you to the heart of the risk problem - people. The best systems, the most up to date software, the most meticulous risk mitigation plan, all can be circumvented by human ingenuity. Via case studies and analytical framing the authors review, analyse and most usefully prescribe how people risk can be minimized but never eliminated. People Risk is not a HR function but a holistic framework of thinking and this book exposes you to it." * Brian Lucey, Professor of Finance, Trinity College Dublin *"I recommend this book to experienced risk managers because it tackles some very difficult areas from a broad knowledge base, builds on the work of other's research and introduces some new concepts. I would put a slight caveat to the less experienced risk practitioner because it is important to understand how people risk management should sit within a wider risk management framework. The book leaves the impression that people risk is the principal cause for all ills, however, root cause analysis consistently finds that there is usually more than one factor present for risks to materialise." * Jane Walde, Director of The Holistic Risk Practice (for RMProfessional) *"People Risk Management by McConnell and Blacker is a book that has been sorely needed for some time. For too long risk practitioners, as a whole, have underplayed the role that people risk can have in an organisation. Given that the major events of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 were a result of people, both in senior and junior positions, making poor decisions for a variety of reasons, it is time that people risk is given much more prominence. And it's not just a matter of risk culture, as McConnell and Blacker successfully argue. More attention needs to be paid to making a more robust decision making process, especially at senior levels. For the practitioner, this book offers more than an overview of the risk and some case studies; a framework for managing people risk, and proposals for increasing the quality of people risk management from the Boardroom to the individual worker make a valuable resource. This is a book that I wish I'd written." * Frank Ashe, Macquarie University *"Among the many carefully reasoned observations in the wide field of risk management and its focus on People Risk, this book highlights the important roles of Human Resources which extend beyond its established domains of recruitment, selection, training, development and rewarding. The authors' detailed analyses persuasively render indispensable the wider remit of HR. The book, however, goes beyond HR. It prompts the governance functions into ensuring that people risks are included in every assignment they undertake, it argues that senior management are at the front line of promoting personal responsibility and managing people risk and it tells the board that people risks, not only need managing in the organisation, but they also need managing in the boardroom." * Bill Weinstein, Emeritus Professor of International Business, Henley Business School *"It has long been appreciated that effective human resource management systems are an essential part of organisational success, however it is much less well understood that people can still bring down even the most successful organisations. Scratch beneath the surface and even apparently well run organisations can be found to have significant people risk exposures - often because they lack the necessary knowledge and expertise to manage this complex and diverse area of risk. Blacker and McConnell, two of the leading lights in people risk management, have delivered a must-read text for all senior managers and board members in organisations - combining practical insights with strong academic foundations. The book is also an important addition to the book shelves of students and academics with an interest in the human aspects of risk management." * Simon Ashby, Associate Professor at Plymouth University, and Chairman, Institute of Operational Risk *Table of Contents Chapter - 11: Conclusion Chapter - 10: Personal responsibility; Chapter - 09: Improving decision-making; Chapter - 08: Roles and responsibilities; Chapter - 07: The influence of organizational culture; Chapter - 06: People Risk in the boardroom; Chapter - 05: People Risk Management Framework; Chapter - 04: Case studies in People Risk; Chapter - 03: The human dimension of People Risk; Chapter - 02: Definition and models of People Risk; Chapter - 01: People Risk in context;

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Book SynopsisAndrew Hayward is a lawyer with more than a dozen years' experience of compliance roles across sectors. Having previously worked for AstraZeneca and Balfour Beatty, he is now Head of Compliance and Ethics at Subsea 7, an engineering, construction and services contractor to the offshore energy industry. He worked with the British Standards Institute to develop the first anti-bribery standard (BS10500) and was part of the UK delegation on the development of the International Anti-Bribery Standard (BS ISO 37001:2016).Tony Osborn is an award-winning writer, creative consultant and content developer. He has worked with leading global corporations to help them find and tell their stories and connect with stakeholders. He helped shape and write Serco's online and printed Code of Conduct, and, with Andrew Hayward, the award-winning Balfour Beatty Code of Conduct.Trade Review"The 'masters and apprentices' book of compliance - practical insights for the professional and lay person alike."" * Christopher Wright, Head of Compliance, LafargeHolcim *"The authors of this book succeeded in explaining precisely, pleasantly and in an easily understandable way what everybody should know and practice in compliance and ethics. Nobody may say anymore: 'I didn't know how to do it'." * François Vincke, Member of the Brussels Bar, Vice-Chair ICC Commission Corporate Responsibility and Anti-corruption *"The engaging style of this book will take its audience beyond the word 'compliance' - seen as so negative by so many demonstrates how to win over hearts and minds. The stories are a useful and practical way to make learning more memorable and therefore effective. The authors are to be commended for their approach in delivering a must read for every CECO... A seminal textbook for those teaching business ethics at universities and business schools." * Philippa Foster Back CBE, Director, Institute of Business Ethics *"Just as importantly, the work provides the right balance between ethics and values on the one hand and compliance programme elements on the other in discussing what works and what hasn't. Brilliantly written and easy to understand, it provides meaningful insight for both the experienced compliance professional and newcomers to the field. It masterfully weaves real stories and anecdotes into the materials in an entertaining way, bringing the discussion to life. Destined to become a classic in the compliance literature, it is required reading for anyone on the compliance journey." * Keith M. Korenchuk, VP & Chief Compliance Officer, Diagnostic Platform, Danaher Corporation/Beckman Coulter Inc. and former partner, Arnold & Porter LLP *"The authors provide such depth of understanding necessary to help entities navigate ethics and compliance in an effective and integrated way. They have managed to do so in a light and upbeat tone with some fun references ranging from rock 'n' roll to Lewis Carroll and a healthy poke at legalese." * Cécilia Fellouse-Guenkel, General Manager, Compliance For Good *Table of Contents Section - ONE: Chapter - 01: Why compliance isn’t working; Chapter - 02: The meaning, origins and role of compliance and ethics; Chapter - 03: Barriers to success; Chapter - 04: Looking for answers; Section - TWO: Chapter - 05: The anatomy of a compliance and ethics programme; Chapter - 06: Top-level commitment; Chapter - 07: Risk assessment and due diligence; Chapter - 08: Code of conduct and policies; Chapter - 09: Communication, education and training; Chapter - 10: Whistle-blowing hotline and speak-up culture; Chapter - 11: Procedures and controls; Chapter - 12: Investigations, remediation and enforcement; Chapter - 13: Assurance and continuous improvement; Chapter - 14: Implementation – The compliance and ethics function – and everyone else;

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Book SynopsisKate Hartley is co-founder of Polpeo, a crisis simulation training consultancy that works with some of the biggest brands in the world. Hartley has 25 years' agency-side experience in crisis and reputation management and corporate PR. She has spoken and run workshops on the impact of social media on crisis management at international events including SXSW, The Global PR Summit, PR Week's Crisis Comms, and Social Media Today's Social Shake Up. She is a member of the CIPR and the PRCA, and sits on the PRCA's digital steering committee which is designed to shape digital best practice in the PR industry.Trade Review"A timely analysis of the environment in which crises emerge and must be managed." * Jonathan Hemus, Managing Director, Insignia *"Above all a sane and sympathetic approach to the people embroiled in a crisis at the sharp end. Buy this book, read it, follow Kate Hartley's advice and breathe more easily." * Adrian Wheeler, author of Crisis Communications Management and Writing for the Media *"Whilst the principles of crisis communications haven't changed the environment has - beyond recognition. Understanding what that means to the corporation under fire and how best they should engage with all stakeholder audiences is the essence of this book." * Alison Clarke FPRCA, FCIPR, Alison Clarke Consulting *Table of Contents Section - ONE: Understanding how consumer behaviour has changed; Chapter - 01: Kick a brand when it's down – Why we love to hate our favourite brands; Chapter - 02: The issue of declining trust in the spread of fake news; Chapter - 03: Who do I trust? The rise of individual influencers versus declining traditional media; Chapter - 04: It's outrageous! Understanding the new response to outrage and bad news, and the role of social media; Chapter - 05: I want it now – Managing consumer expectation for instant information; Chapter - 06: Profile of a troll – Understanding and dealing with trolling behaviour; Chapter - 07: The conscious consumer – The question complex and pressures of brand transparency; Section - TWO: The role of changing consumer behaviour in crisis management and response; Chapter - 08: The new challenges – Understanding the impact of changing consumer behaviour on crisis management strategies; Chapter - 09: What is acceptable in a crisis? How to differentiate business as usual versus crisis management; Chapter - 10: The social media Hydra: Principles of transparency versus suppression of information in crisis mitigation; Chapter - 11: Crises in action: Lessons learned from crisis responses from five major brands; Chapter - 12: The importance of telling the truth and its role in crisis and reputation management; Chapter - 13: Withstanding the attack: The importance of resilience in your communications teams; Section - THREE: Building your crisis communication strategy and response; Chapter - 14: The brain's response to a crisis and training your team to cope; Chapter - 15: Insights from crisis communication influencers on managing the threats facing brands; Chapter - 16: The role of leadership in a crisis and preparing your crisis team; Chapter - 17: Showing humanity and empathy in a crisis: When it counts and when it's empty; Chapter - 18: What do I do first? Getting your priorities right in a crisis; Chapter - 19: Harnessing the crowd: Using influencers and advocates to calm the crisis: An interview with Scott Guthrie; Chapter - 20: The role of technology in crisis management: Using predictive analysis, social listening, search data and insights; Chapter - 21: Practical steps to prepare, execute and analyse a crisis response (and avoid common pitfalls)

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Book SynopsisSafety-critical systems are found in almost every sector of industry. Faults in these systems will result in a breach of safe operating conditions and exposure to the possible risk of major loss of life or catastrophic damage to plant, equipment or the environment. An understanding of the basis for the functioning of these systems is therefore vital to all involved in their operation. In particular, the interaction of the disciplines of software engineering, safety engineering, human factors and safety management is a total process whose entirety is not widely understood by those working in any of the individual fields. This book will redress that problem by providing an introduction to each constituent part with a cohesive structure and overview of the whole subject. It will be of interest to engineers, managers, students and anyone with responsibilities in these areas.Trade ReviewA very good textbook for the learner.Health and Safety at Work'Timely and exciting! The text is clear and avoids jargon and cliches.'OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH, JULY '97' Written in clear simple language'Safety management ' I found the book highly resdable and well edited'' This book will form a useful addition to any human factors library'Trans IChemETable of ContentsPart One: Safety-critical Systems and Human Reliability; Introducing Safety-critical Systems, Causes of Human Error, Human Reliability Assessment - Methods and Techniques; Part Two: Human-Computer Interaction; Introduction to HCI in Safety-critical Systems; Human Factors in the Specification of Safety-critical Systems; Design of HCI; Training and Support in the Operational Context; Design for Abnormal Situations; Part Three: Socio-Technical Considerations; Socio-Technical Issues in the Development Life Cycle; Social Factors in Safety-critical Systems; Violations - Causes, Costs and Cures; Learning from Incidents at Work; The Treatment of Human Factors in Safety Cases; Appendix: Standards and Legislation

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Book SynopsisAndrew Furness and Martin Muckett give an introduction to all areas of fire safety management, including the legal framework, causes and prevention of fire and explosions, fire protection measures, fire risk assessment, and fire investigation. Fire safety is not treated as an isolated area but linked into an effective health and safety management system.Introduction to Fire Safety Management has been developed for the NEBOSH Certificate in Fire Safety and Risk Management and is also suitable for other NVQ level 3 and 4 fire safety courses. The text is highly illustrated in full colour, easy to read and supported by checklists, report forms and record sheets. This practical approach makes the book a valuable reference for health and safety professionals, fire officers, facility managers, safety reps, managers, supervisors and HR personnel in companies, as well as fire safety engineers, architects, constrTrade Review"a first-class introduction ... the market leader in the principle and practice of fire management ... highly recommended for its coverage, quality of writing, and ease of understanding."- Review in SAFETY & HEALTH PRACTITIONER, July 2008“straightforward, with easy-to-follow arguments and advice ... I have no hesitation in recommending this book to all who have a responsibility for ensuring the safety of others from fire.”- Review in HEALTH AND SAFETY AT WORK MAGAZINE, August 2008Table of ContentsChapter 1 Fire Safety Foundations; Chapter 2 Safety Policy; Chapter 3 Organising for Safety; Chapter 4 Safety Culture; Chapter 5 Principles of Risk Assessment; Chapter 6 General Principles of Control; Chapter 7 Principles of Fire and Explosion; Chapter 8 Causes and Prevention of Fire; Chapter 9 Fire Protection in Buildings; Chapter 10 Safety of People in the Event of a Fire; Chapter 11 Monitoring, Auditing and Reviewing fire Safety Systems; Chapter 12 Reactive Monitoring – Reporting, Recording and Investigation; Chapter 13 Environmental Impact of Fire; Chapter 14 Fire Risk Assessment; Chapter 15 Summary of Key Legal Requirements;

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Book SynopsisIn the wake of 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina, many are asking what, if anything, can be done to prevent large-scale disasters. How is it that we know more about the hazards of modern American life than ever before, yet the nation faces ever-increasing losses from such events? History shows that disasters are not simply random acts. Where is the logic in creating an elaborate set of fire codes for buildings, and then allowing structures like the Twin Towers—tall, impressive, and risky—to go up as design experiments? Why prepare for terrorist attacks above all else when floods, fires, and earthquakes pose far more consistent threats to American life and prosperity?The Disaster Experts takes on these questions, offering historical context for understanding who the experts are that influence these decisions, how they became powerful, and why they are only slightly closer today than a decade ago to protecting the public from disasters. Tracing the intertwined develoTrade Review"This marvelous book offers a gripping analysis of American disaster expertise over the last 150 years. . . . A powerful, eminently readable book that belongs on undergraduate and graduate syllabi in the history of science and technology-and, indeed, in the library of every educated citizen." * Isis *"Knowles adroitly chronicles in fine historical detail the emergence of the experts (and their intellectual disciplines) who worked to understand and mitigate the constantly changing human and technological landscapes of urban risk." * Choice *"In The Disaster Experts, Scott Knowles makes a key contribution to our understanding of how American disaster policy has evolved over time. This book is a way to appreciate at a deeper level why and how Americans are prepared in some ways, and profoundly unprepared in others, for the disasters to come in the twenty-first century." * James Lee Witt, Chief Executive Officer, Witt Associates, and FEMA Director, 1993-2001 *Table of ContentsList of Abbreviations Introduction 1 The Devil's Privilege 2 Reforming Fire 3 The Invisible Screen of Safety 4 Ten to Twenty Million Killed, Tops 5 What Is a Disaster? 6 A Nation of Hazards Conclusion Notes Index Acknowledgments

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Book SynopsisWhether man-made or naturally occurring, large-scale disasters can cause fatalities and injuries, devastate property and communities, savage the environment, impose significant financial burdens on individuals and firms, and test political leadership. Moreover, global challenges such as climate change and terrorism reveal the interdependent and interconnected nature of our current moment: what occurs in one nation or geographical region is likely to have effects across the globe. Our information age creates new and more integrated forms of communication that incur risks that are difficult to evaluate, let alone anticipate. All of this makes clear that innovative approaches to assessing and managing risk are urgently required.When catastrophic risk management was in its inception thirty years ago, scientists and engineers would provide estimates of the probability of specific types of accidents and their potential consequences. Economists would then propose risk management poliTrade Review"Extraordinarily thoughtful and insightful, the authors of The Future of Risk Management provide students and professionals in the field of risk management new pathways for approaches and solutions to our myriad areas of risk. Moreover, anyone interested in understanding the risks our societies face should study these essays." * Franklin W. Nutter, President, Reinsurance Association of America *"The field of risk management has exploded in recent decades as natural disasters, financial meltdowns, pandemics, and other damaging events have wreaked havoc across borders. The Future of Risk Management brings together essays from leading thinkers on ways to reduce risk so that today's threats do not turn into tomorrow's catastrophes. Aimed at policy leaders seeking strategies to reduce future harm, this volume deserves a close read and a spot on the bookshelf of all forward-thinking decision-makers." * Alice Hill, The Hoover Institution, Stanford University *"The Future of Risk Management engages in a critical discussion on how we as a nation and the world as a whole should better prepare for and reduce the costs of future disasters. The authors correctly recognize that our current disaster preparedness and response paradigm is fundamentally broken-plagued by inconsistencies, short-sightedness, and a lack of integration. Instead, we need to take a holistic, long-term approach to disaster response and risk management and allocate resources based on the best objective data available." * Jason M. Tuber, U.S. Congressional Staffer *"This comprehensive, critical, and lucid survey demonstrates convincingly that effectively managing climate change and other major threats requires understanding how the average person reacts to risk. It's a story about lessons learned and lessons forgotten, about logic and bias, about positive incentives and perverse incentives-and serves as a warning that we have a long, long way to go before we manage risk effectively." * Michael Oppenheimer, Princeton University *Table of ContentsIntroduction —Howard Kunreuther, Robert J. Meyer, and Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan PART I. BEHAVIORAL FACTORS INFLUENCING DECISION-MAKING UNDER RISK AND UNCERTAINTY Chapter 1. The Arithmetic of Compassion and the Future of Risk Management —Paul Slovic and Daniel Västfjäll Chapter 2. "Risk as Feelings" and "Perception Matters": Psychological Contributions on Risk, Risk-Taking, and Risk Management —Elke U. Weber Chapter 3. Risk-Based Thinking —Baruch Fischhoff Chapter 4. Structured Empirical Analysis of Decisions Under Natural Hazard Risk —Craig E. Landry, Gregory Colson, and Mona Ahmadiani Chapter 5. Mixing Rationality and Irrationality in Insurance Demand and Supply —Mark Pauly Chapter 6. The Disaster Cycle: What We Do Not Learn from Experience —Robert J. Meyer PART II. IMPROVING RISK ASSESSMENT Chapter 7. Using Models to Set a Baseline and Measure Progress in Reducing Disaster Casualties —Robert Muir-Wood Chapter 8. Learning from All Types of Near-Misses —Robin Dillon Chapter 9. Managing Systemic Industry Risk: The Need for Collective Leadership —Paul J. H. Schoemaker Chapter 10. Measuring Economic Resilience: Recent Advances and Future Priorities —Adam Rose PART III. DEVELOPING BETTER RISK COMMUNICATION STRATEGIES Chapter 11. Improving Stakeholder Engagement for Upstream Risks —Robin Gregory and Nate Dieckmann Chapter 12. Improving the Accuracy of Geopolitical Risk Assessments —Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock, Joshua D. Baker, Jeffrey A. Friedman, and Richard Zeckhauser Chapter 13. Efficient Warnings, Not "Wolf or Puppy" Warnings —Lisa A. Robinson, W. Kip Viscusi, and Richard Zeckhauser PART IV. ROLE OF RISK MITIGATION, RISK-SHARING, AND INSURANCE Chapter 14. Threats to Insurability —Carolyn Kousky Chapter 15. The Role of Insurance in Risk Management for Natural Disasters: Back to the Future —Howard Kunreuther Chapter 16. Improving Individual Flood Preparedness Through Insurance Incentives —W. J. Wouter Botzen Chapter 17. Strong and Well-Enforced Building Codes as an Effective Disaster Risk Reduction Tool: An Evaluation —Jeffrey Czajkowski PART V. GOVERNMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENT Chapter 18. Getting the Blend Right: Public-Private Partnerships in Risk Management —Cary Coglianese Chapter 19. The Regulation of Insurance Markets Subject to Catastrophic Risks —Robert W. Klein Chapter 20. Rethinking Government Disaster Relief in the United States: Evidence and a Way Forward —Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan List of Contributors Index

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Book SynopsisChemical process quantitative risk analysis (CPQRA) is used to identify incident scenarios and evaluate their risk by defining the probability of failure, the various consequences and the potential impact of those consequences. This edition offers a guide to applying these risk-analysis techniques, particularly to risk control studies.Table of ContentsPreface. Preface to the First Edition. Acknowledgments. Acknowledgments to the First Edition. Management Overview. Organization of the Guidelines. Acronyms. 1. CHEMICAL PROCESS QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS. 1.1 CPQRA Definitions. 1.2 Component Techniques of CPQRA. 1.2.1 Complete CPQRA Procedure. 1.2.2 Prioritized CPQRA Procedure. 1.3 Scope of CPQRA Studies. 1.3.1 The Study Case. 1.3.2 Typical Goals of CPQRAs. 1.4 Management of Incident Lists. 1.4.1 Enumeration. 1.4.2 Selection. 1.4.3 Tracking. 1.5 Applications of CPQRA. 1.5.1 Screening Techniques. 1.5.2 Applications within Existing Facilities. 1.5.3 Applications within New Projects. 1.6 Limitations of CPQRA. 1.7 Current Practices. 1.8 Utilization of CPQRA Results. 1.9 Project Management. 1.91. Study Goals. 1.9.2 Study Objectives. 1.9.3 Depth of Study. 1.9.4 Special User Requirements. 1.9.5 Construction of a Project Plan. 1.9.6 Project Execution. 1.10 Maintenance of Study Results. 1.11 References. 2. CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS. 2.1 Source Models. 2.1.1 Discharge Rate Models. 2.1.2 Flash and Evaporation. 2.1.3 Dispersion Models. 2.2 Explosions and Fires. 2.2.1 Vapor Cloud Explosions (VCE). 2.2.2 Flash Fires. 2.2.3 Physical Explosion. 2.2.4 BLEVE and Fireball. 2.2.5 Confined Explosions. 2.2.6 Pool Fries. 2.2.7 Jet Fires. 2.3 Effect Models. 2.3.1 Toxic Gas Effects. 2.3.2 Thermal Effects. 2.3.3 Explosion Effects. 2.4 Evasive Actions. 2.4.1 Background. 2.4.2 Description. 2.4.3 Example Problem. 2.4.4 Discussion. 2.5 Modeling Systems. 2.6 References. 3. EVENT PROBABILITY AND FAILURE FREQUENCY ANALYSIS. 3.1 Incident Frequencies from the Historical Record. 3.1.1 Background. 3.1.2 Description. 3.1.3 Sample Problem. 3.1.4 Discussion. 3.2 Frequency Modeling Techniques. 3.2.2 Event Tree Analysis. 3.3 Complementary Plant-Modeling Techniques. 3.3.1 Common Cause Failure Analysis. 3.3.2 Human Reliability Analysis. 3.3.3 External Events Analysis. 3.4 References. 4. MEASUREMENT, CALCULATION, AND PRESENTATION OF RISK ESTIMATES. 4.1 Risk Measures. 4.1.1 Risk Indices. 4.1.2 Individual Risk. 4.1.3 Societal Risk. 4.1.4 Injury Risk Measures. 4.2 Risk Presentation. 4.2.1 Risk Indices. 4.2.2 Individual Risk. 4.2.3 Societal Risk. 4.3 Selection of Risk Measures and Presentation Format. 4.3.1 Selection of Risk Measures. 4.3.2 Selection of Presentation Format. 4.4 Risk Calculations. 4.4.1 Individual Risk. 4.4.2 Societal Risk. 4.4.3 Risk Indices. 4.4.4 General Comments. 4.4.5 Example Risk Calculation Problem. 4.4.6 Sample Problem Illustrating That F-N Curves Cannot be Calculated from individual Risk Contours. 4.5 Risk Uncertainty, Sensitivity, and Importance. 4.5.1 Uncertainty. 4.5.2 Sensitivity. 4.5.3 Importance. 4.6 References. 5. CREATION OF CPQRA DATA BASE. 5.1 Historical Incident Data. 5.1.1 Types of Data. 5.1.2 Sources. 5.2 Process and Plant Data. 5.2.1 Plant Layout and System Description. 5.2.2 Ignition Sources and Data. 5.3 Chemical Data. 5.3.1 Types of Data. 5.3.2 Sources. 5.4 Environmental Data. 5.4.1 Population Data. 5.4.2 Meteorological Data. 5.4.3 Geographical Data. 5.4.4 Topographic Data. 5.4.5 External Event Data. 5.5 Equipment Reliability Data. 5.5.1 Terminology. 5.5.2 Types and Sources of Failure Rate Data. 5.5.3 Key Factors Influencing Equipment Failure Rates. 5.5.4 Failure Rate Adjustment Factors. 5.5.5 Data Requirements and Estimated Accuracy. 5.5.6 Collection and Processing of Raw Plant Data. 5.5.7 Preparation of the CPQRA Equipment Failure Rate Data Set. 5.5.8 Sample Problem. 5.6 Human Reliability Data. 5.7 Use of Expert Opinions. 5.8 References. 6. SPECIAL TOPICS AND OTHER TECHNIQUES. 6.1 Domino Effects. 6.1.1 Background. 6.1.2 Description. 6.1.3 Sample Problem. 6.1.4 Discussion. 6.2 Unavailability Analysis of Protective Systems. 6.2.1 Background. 6.2.2 Description. 6.2.3 Sample Problem. 6.2.4 Discussion. 6.3 Reliability Analysis of Programmable Electronic Systems. 6.3.1 Background. 6.3.2 Description. 6.3.3 Sample Problem. 6.3.4 Discussion. 6.4 Other techniques. 6.4.1 MORT Analysis. 6.4.2 IFAL Analysis. 6.4.3 Hazard Warning Structure. 6.4.4 Markov Processes. 6.4.5 Monte Carlo Techniques. 6.4.6 GO Methods. 6.4.7 Reliability Book Diagrams. 6.4.8 Cause-Consequence Analysis. 6.4.9 Multiple Failure/Error Analysis (MFEA). 6.4.10 Sneak Analysis. 6.5 References. 7. CPQRA APPLICATION EXAMPLES. 7.1 Simple/Consequence CPQRA Examples. 7.1.1 Sample/Consequence CPQRA Characterization. 7.1.2 Application to a New Process Unit. 7.1.3 Application to an Existing Process Unit. 7.2 Intermediate/Frequency CPQRA Examples. 7.2.1 Intermediate/Frequency CPQRA Characterization. 7.2.2 Application to a New Process Unit. 7.2.3 Application to Existing Process Unit. 7.3 Complex/Risk CPQRA Examples. 7.3.1 Complex/Risk Cpqra Characterization. 7.3.2 Application to a New or Existing Process Unit. 7.4 References. 8. CASE STUDIES. 8.1 Chlorine Rail Tank Car Loading Facility. 8.1.1 Introduction. 8.1.2 Description. 8.1.3 Identification, Enumeration, and Selection of Incidents. 8.1.4 Incident Consequence Estimation. 8.1.5 Incident Frequency Estimation. 8.1.6 Risk Estimation. 8.1.7 Conclusions. 8.2 Distillation Column. 8.2.1 Introduction. 8.2.2 Description. 8.2.3 Identification, Enumeration, and Selection of Incidents. 8.2.4 Incident Consequence Estimation. 8.2.5 Incident Frequency Estimation. 8.2.6 Risk Estimation. 8.2.7 Conclusions. 8.3 References. 9. FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS. 9.1 Hazard Identification. 9.2 Source and Dispersion Models. 9.2.1 Source Emission Models. 9.2.2 Transport and Dispersion Models. 9.2.3 Transient Plume Behavior. 9.2.4 Concentration Fluctuations and the Time Averaging of Dispersion Plumes. 9.2.5 Input Data Uncertainties and Model Validation. 9.2.6 Field Experiments. 9.2.7 Model Evaluation. 9.3 Consequence Models. 9.3.1 Unconfined Vapor Cloud Explosion (UVCE). 9.3.2 Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosions (BLEVES) and Fireballs. 9.3.3 Pool and Jet Fires. 9.3.4 Toxic Hazards. 9.3.5 Human Exposure Models. 9.4 Frequency Models. 9.4.1 Human Factors. 9.4.2 Electronic Systems. 9.4.3 Failure Rate Data. 9.5 Hazard Mitigation. 9.6 Uncertainty Management. 9.7 Integration of Reliability Analysis, CPQRA, and Cost-Benefit Studies. 9.8 Summary. 9.9 References. Appendix A. Loss-of-Containment Causes in the Chemical Industry. Appendix B. Training Programs. Appendix C. Sample Outline for CPQRA Reports. Appendix D. Minimal Cut Set Analysis. Appendix E. Approximation Methods for Quantifying Fault Trees. Appendix F. Probability Distributions, Parameters, and Technology. Appendix G. Statistical Distributions Available for Use as Failure Rate Models. Appendix H. Errors from Assuming That Time-Related Equipment Failure Rates Are Constant. Appendix I. Data Reduction Techniques: Distribution Identification and Testing Methods. Appendix J. Procedure for Combining Available Generic and Plant-Specific Data. Conversion Factors. Glossary. Index.

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Book SynopsisQuantitative Risk Analysis is a powerful tool used to help manage risk and improve safety. When used appropriately, it provides a rational basis for evaluating process safety and comparing alternative safety improvements. This guide, an update of an earlier American Chemistry Council (ACC) publication utilizing the hands-on experience of CPI risk assessment practitioners and safety professionals involved with the CCPS and ACC, explains how managers and users can make better-informed decisions about QRA, and how plant engineers and process designers can better understand, interpret and use the results of a QRA in their plant.Table of ContentsList of Figures. List of Tables. Preface. Acknowledgments. Executive Summary. Advice for the Reader. Acronyms. Glossary. Chapter 1. Introduction. 1.1. Background. 1.2. The Process of Risk Analysis. 1.3. Definition of QRA. 1.4. Misconceptions About QRA. Chapter 2. Deciding Whether to Use QRA. 2.1. Some Reasons for Considering QRA. 2.2. Types of Information Available From Risk Studies. 2.3. Criteria for Electing to Use QRA. Chapter 3. Management Use of QRA. 3.1. Chartering the Analysis. 3.1.1. Study Objective. 3.1.2. Scope. 3.1.3. Technical Approach. 3.1.4. Resources. 3.2. Selecting QRA Techniques. 3.2.1. Hazard Identification. 3.2.2. Consequence Analysis. 3.2.3. Frequency Analysis. 3.2.4. Risk Evaluation and Presentation. 3.3. Understanding the Assumptions and Limitations. 3.3.1. Completeness. 3.3.2. Model Validity. 3.3.3. Accuracy/Uncertainty. 3.3.4. Reproducibility. 3.3.5. Inscrutability. Chapter 4. Using QRA Results. 4.1. Comparative Methods for Establishing Perspective. 4.2. Factors Influencing Risk Perception. 4.2.1. Type of Hazard. 4.2.2. Voluntary versus Involuntary. 4.2.3. Societal versus Individual. 4.2.4. Public versus Employee. 4.2.5. High Consequence/Low Frequency versus Low Consequence/High Frequency 4.2.6. Acute versus Latent Effects. 4.2.7. Familiarity. 4.2.8. Controllability. 4.2.9. Age of Exposed Population. 4.2.10. Distribution of Risk and Benefit. 4.3. Communicating Risk. 4.3.1. Accept and Involve the Public as a Legitimate Partner. 4.3.2. Plan Carefully and Evaluate Your Efforts. 4.3.3. Listen to People's Specific Concerns. 4.3.4. Be Honest, Frank, and Open. 4.3.5. Coordinate and Collaborate with Other Credible Sources. 4.3.6. Meet the Needs of the Media. 4.3.7. Speak Clearly and with Compassion. 4.4. Pitfalls in Using QRA Results. Chapter 5. Conclusions. References. Suggested Additional Reading.

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Book SynopsisLayer of protection analysis (LOPA) is a simplified method of risk assessment that provides the much-needed middle ground between a qualitative process hazard analysis and a traditional, expensive quantitative risk analysis.Table of ContentsPreface. Acknowledgments. Acronyms and Abbreviations. 1. Introduction. 1.1 Audience. 1.2 History of LOPA. 1.3 Use of LOPA in the Process Life Cycle. 1.4 Linkage to Other CCPS Publications. 1.5 Annotated Outline of the LOPA book. 2. Overview of LOPA. 2.1 Purpose. 2.2 What is LOPA? 2.3 What LOPA Does. 2.4 When to Use LOPA. 2.5 How LOPA Works. 2.6 How to Implement LOPA. 2.7 Limitations of LOPA. 2.8 Benefits of LOPA. 2.9 Introduction of Continuing Examples. 3. Estimating Consequences and Severity. 3.1 Purpose. 3.2 Consequences of Interest. 3.3 Consequences Evaluation Approaches for LOPA. 3.4 Continuing Examples. 3.5 Link Forward. 4. Developing Scenarios. 4.1 Purpose. 4.2 LOPA Scenarios and Components. 4.3 Identifying and Developing Candidate Scenarios. 4.4 Continuing Examples. 4.5 Link Forward. 5. Identifying Initiating Event Frequency. 5.1 Purpose. 5.2 Initiating Events. 5.3 Frequency Estimation. 5.4 Expression of Failure Rates. 5.5 Continuing Examples. 5.6 Limitations (Cautions). 5.7 Link Forward. 6. Identifying Independent Protection Layers. 6.1 Purpose. 6.2 Definition and Purpose of an IPL. 6.3 IPL Rules. 6.4 LOPA IPL Assessment. 6.5 Example of IPLs. 6.6 Preventive IPLs versus Mitigation IPLs. 6.7 Continuing Examples. 6.8 Link Forward. 7. Determining the Frequency of Scenarios. 7.1 Purpose. 7.2 Quantitative Calculation of Risk and Frequency. 7.3 Look-up Table Determination of Risk of Frequency. 7.4 Calculation of Risk of Frequency with Integer Logarithms. 7.5 Continuing Examples. 7.6 Link Forward. 8. Using LOPA to Make Risk Decisions. 8.1 Purpose. 8.2 Introduction. 8.3 Comparing Calculated Risk to Scenario Risk Tolerance Criteria. 8.4 Expert Judgment. 8.5 Using Cost-Benefit to Compare Alternatives. 8.6 Comparison of Approaches, Pros and Cons. 8.7 Cumulative Risk Criteria versus Scenario Criteria. 8.8 Continuing Examples. 8.9 Cautions. 8.10 Link Forward. 9. Implementing LOPA. 9.1 Purpose. 9.2 Is the Company ready for LOPA? 9.3 What Is the Current Foundation for Risk Assessment? 9.4 What Dare Are Required? 9.5 Will the IPLs Remain in Place? 9.6 How Are the Risk Tolerance Criteria Established? 9.7 When IS LOPA Used? 9.8 Typical Implementation Tasks. 10. Using LOPA for Other Applications. 10.1 Purpose. 10.2 Using LOPA in Capital Improvement Planning. 10.3 Using LOPA in Management of Change. 10.4 Using LOPA in Mechanical Integrity Programs or Risk-Based Inspection/Risk-Based Maintenance Programs. 10.5 Using LOPA in Risk-Based Operator Training. 10.6 Using LOPA in emergency Response Planning. 10.7 Using LOPA to Determine a Credible Design Basis for Overpressure Protection. 10.8 Using LOPA in Evaluating Facility Siting Risks. 10.9 Using LOPA to Evaluate the Need for Emergency Isolation Valves. 10.10 Using LOPA to Evaluate Taking a Safety System Out of Service. 10.11 Using LOPA during Incident Investigations. 10.12 Using LOPA in the Determination of SIL for SIF. 11. Advanced LOPA Topics. 11.1 Purpose. 11.2 Counting Multiple Functions in One BPCS as IPLs in the Same Scenario. 11.3 Summation of Risk for Multiple Scenarios. 11.4 Using LOPA to Develop F/N Curves. 11.5 Operator Response Issues. 11.6 Normal Plant Operations as “Tests: of IPL Components. 11.7 Focused Fault Tree/Event Tree Analysis of IPL Components. Appendix A. LOPA Summary Sheets for the Continuing Examples. Appendix B. Worked Examples from CCPS’s Safe Automation Book. Appendix C. Documentation for a LOPA Study. Appendix D. Linkage with Other Publications. Appendix E. Industry Risk Tolerance Criteria Data. Appendix F. High Initiating Event Frequency Scenarios. Appendix G. Additional Reading. References. Glossary of Terms. Index.

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Book SynopsisExplore the understanding and statistical modeling of risk with this accessible book that requires only a basic background in mathematics. The authors discuss several major disasters, before introducing the mathematical tools required to analyze them. Even the more technical discussions are interspersed with historical comments and many examples.

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Book SynopsisThis Element represents the systematic study of the risks taken by those who produced, commissioned, and purchased art, across Renaissance Europe. It classifies scores of documented examples of losses into production risks and reception risks and discusses risk-taming mechanisms operating society-wide.

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Book SynopsisHow is it possible that the desire for a perfectly safe world with perfectly safe workplaces helps generate the opposite? Safety Theater shows how our desire for perfection drives compliance clutter, inauthentic relationships with work-as-done, and new kinds of accidents. Written by the leading global voice of safety innovation today, Safety Theater takes us back to the Enlightenment and its aspiration towards a perfectible world through rationality and science, and how, by separating severity from injury rates two centuries later, we hit our targets but miss the point. This hopeful, forward-looking book is the final instalment of a three-part series on the effects of âneoliberalism,â which promotes the role of the private sector in the economy.Showcasing a more caring kind of capitalism â where free markets are free in a frame, where horizontal coordination replaces hierarchical control, where shareholders are not the only stakeholders, and where value and prosperity are assessed in terms other than merely economic ones â the book platforms much of what is now known as âsafety differentlyâ, and also allows us to think differently about our capacity to manage complexity (including its possible drift toward failure) and see our fellow human beings as resources for solutions, not as problems to control. Safety Theater introduces the socio-economic success and value system that distinguish Rhineland economies from Anglo ones. It explains how complexity can never be governed through hierarchy and compliance, but necessarily requires trust, horizontal coordination, and offers a vision of humanity richer than Anglo-style capitalism can offer, and examines how Rhineland thinking values tripartite consultation (between workers, employers and government) in ways that can help stem the worst effects of free market policy making on the compliance clutter and drift into failure as detailed in the previous two volumes in this trilogy.Dekkerâs work, from his debut Field Guide to Understanding Human Error in 2001 to his recent Random Noise, has always challenged readers to embrace more humane, empowering ways to think about work and its quality and safety. In Safety Theater, Dekker extends his reach once again, writing for all managers, board members, organization leaders, consultants, practitioners, researchers, lecturers, students and investigators curious to understand the genuine nature of organizational and safety performance.

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Book SynopsisCognitive Risk is a book about the least understood but most pervasive risk to mankind human decision-making. Cognitive risks are subconscious and unconscious influence factors on human decision-making: heuristics and biases. To understand the scope of cognitive risk, we look at case studies, corporate and organizational failure, and the science that explains why we systemically make errors in judgment and repeat the same errors.The book takes a multidisciplinary and pedestrian stroll through behavioral science with a light touch, using stories to explain why we consistently make cognitive errors that not only increase risks but also simultaneously fail to recognize these errors in ourselves or our organizations. This science has deep roots in organizational behavior, psychology, human factors, cognitive science, and behavioral science all influenced by classic philosophers and enabled through advanced analytics and artificial intelligence. The point of the book is Table of Contents1. Reimagining the Organization: Homo Periculum (Human Risk), 2. Complexity in Risk and Risk Perceptions, 3. A Matrix of Risk Governance – Organizational Behavior, 4. Incorporating Human Risk Factors into Organizational Performance, 5. How Emotions Mislead Decision-Makers, 6. Cognitive Readiness – Risk-Solution Designers, 7. The Human Element, 8. Cognitive Risk Governance: Advanced ERM and Cybersecurity.

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Book SynopsisThis text introduces bad events (incidents and accidents) named as metaphors. The metaphors, called as safety animals, are named as black swan, gray rhino, gray swans, and invisible gorilla.The book analyzes incidents and accidents from the context of the safety management system in the risky industries including aviation, nuclear, chemical, oil, and petroleum. It further uses mathematical analysis of these events (through statistics and probabilities) and presents preventive and corrective measures in dealing with the same.It comprehensively covers important topics including real-time monitoring, reverse stress testing, change management, predictive maintenance, management system, contingency plans, human factors, behavioral safety, anticipatory failure determination, resilience engineering (RE), resilience management (RM), Swiss cheese model, and probability distribution.Aimed at professionals working in the fields of health and safety, quTable of Contents1. Philosophy of Science as Introduction. 2. The Black Swan events. 3. Analysis of the “Fat-tails” in Safety. 4. What to do with BSe in the Risky Industry?. 5. The Gray Rhino events. 6. Specifics of GRe in Risky Industry. 7. The Invisible Gorilla. 8. Other “Safety Animals”. 9. How to fight “Safety Animals”?. 10. Top Management and “Safety Animals”. 11. Final Words.

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Book SynopsisMaking risk management work means engaging people to identify, own and manage risk. Many organisations have spent considerable time and money setting up risk frameworks, processes, and supporting tools, but these have failed to deliver value. Instead, they should focus on the people.Bringing together the expertise of Ruth Murray-Webster in the human aspects of risk management and Penny Pullan's deep expertise in facilitation, creative collaboration, and virtual leadership, this book provides tried and tested approaches to make each process step work well within the context of your own organisation and serves as a guide as to how to work effectively with groups. By translating a highly technical and complex subject into an easy-to-follow guide, this book goes beyond tick-box' approaches and provides top tips on how to engage others in developing risk management solutions and how to avoid many of the common pitfalls. This new edition includes two brand new chapters, one taking Trade Review"If you only want to read one book on risk, I thoroughly recommend this text, it is digestible, wise, and offers solid advice to anyone who wants to drive best practice risk thinking into their work, or into their business."Dr Michelle Tilley C.Dir, Director, Hinkley Point C, for EDF Energy"The section on 'Potential Pitfalls and How to Overcome Them' in particular is a masterpiece of concision and common sense."Nick De Voil, Consultant and Author of User Experience FoundationsPraise for the first edition: A Short Guide to Facilitating Risk Management "Risk meetings don’t have to be boring: A Short Guide to Facilitating Risk Management is the book that risk managers have been waiting for. It provides practical guidance on facilitating risk workshops, and making risk management happen outside of the workshop setting as well. Dotted throughout with cartoons, the emphasis is on practical guidance for getting things done without suffocating those poor souls who have to attend risk reviews. The book provides a clear introduction to tackling risk (including opportunities) in a fun, professional way, with the aim of gaining consensus. It’s pragmatic and practical, with real-life examples to show how risk management can become ingrained in the day-to-day management of initiatives in your organisation."Elizabeth Harrin, author of Project Management in the Real World Table of Contents1. Introduction 2. What is Risk Management? 3. Why People and Their Perceptions Matter 4. Why Risk Facilitation Matters 5. Facilitating the Risk Management Process 6. Risk Workshops 7. Making Virtual Risk Management Work, Whether Fully Remote or Hybrid 8. Potential Pitfalls and How to Overcome Them 9. Ten Golden Guidelines for the Risk Facilitator

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Book SynopsisRoot Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA) is a method used by maintenance and reliability industry professionals as one of the key tools to drive improvement. This book offers a quick guide to the applications involved in performing a successful RCFA by providing a foundational view of maintenance and reliability strategies. It also highlights the practical applications of RCFA and identifies how to achieve a successful RCFA, as well as discussing common equipment failures and how to solve them. Case studies on topics including pump system failure analysis and vibration analysis are included. Suggests examples on how to solve common failure on many types of equipment, including fatigue, pumps, bearings, and mechanical power transmission Highlights practical applications of RCFA Identifies key elements for how to achieve a successful RCFA Presents case studies on topics including pump system failure analysis and vibration analysis The book is a must-read for any reliability engineer, particularly mechanical reliability professionals.

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Book SynopsisInformation Technology Security and Risk Management: Inductive Cases for Information Security is a compilation of cases that examine recent developments and issues that are relevant to IT security managers, risk assessment and management, and the broader topic of IT security in the 21st century. As the title indicates, the cases are written and analyzed inductively, which is to say that the authors allowed the cases to speak for themselves, and lead where they would, rather than approach the cases with presuppositions or assumptions regarding what the case should be about. In other words, the authors were given broad discretion to interpret a case in the most interesting and relevant manner possible; any given case may be about many things, depending on the perspective adopted by the reader, and many different lessons may be learned. The inductive approach of these cases reflects the design philosophy of the advanced IT Security and Risk Management course w

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Book SynopsisIntroduction to Nuclear Engineering serves as an accompanying study guide for a complete, introductory single-semester course in nuclear engineering. It is structured for general class use, alongside fundamental nuclear physics and engineering textbooks, and it is equally suited for individual self-study.The book begins with basic modern physics with atomic and nuclear models. It goes on to cover nuclear energetics, radioactivity and decays, and binary nuclear reactions and basic fusion. Exploring basic radiation interactions with matter, the book finishes by discussing nuclear reactor physics, nuclear fuel cycles, and radiation doses and hazard assessment. Each chapter highlights basic concepts, examples, problems with answers, and a final assessment.The book is intended for first-year undergraduate and graduate engineering students taking Nuclear Engineering and Nuclear Energy courses.Table of Contents1. Basic Units and the Atom. 2. Basic Modern Physics. 3. Atomic and Nuclear Models including Chart of Nuclides. 4. Nuclear Energetics I—Binding Energy and Separation Energy. 5. Nuclear Energetics II—Nuclear Reactions and Q-values. 6. Radioactivity and Radioactive Decay. 7. Binary Nuclear Reactions. 8. Radiation Interactions with Matter. 9. Neutrol Chain Reactions and Basic Nuclear Reactor Physics. 10. Nuclear Reactors, Power, and Fuel Cycles. 11. Radiation Doses and Hazards. Appendix I. Appendix II.

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Book SynopsisSafety Management Systems in Aviation presents the quality management underpinnings of SMS. The four components that must be designed into proactive safety are: Safety Policy, Safety Risk Management, Safety Assurance, and Safety Promotion.Including coverage on the cultures of regulatory organizations and expanded coverage on culture assessment, the book considers the nexus between cultural maturity and safety management performance. This third edition features new coverage of international requirements and implications for harmonization across international boundaries. In addition, the book includes new chapters and sections, examples, a hypothetical airline-oriented safety scenario, and case studies to enhance and reinforce student understanding.The book is intended for undergraduate and graduate aviation students taking Safety Management and Aviation Safety courses. It also functions as a valuable reference tool for SMS practitioners.Table of ContentsPrologue – Quest Airlines Chapter 1 Introduction to SMS Chapter 2 History and Evolution of Safety Chapter 3 Safety CultureChapter 4 Principles of Quality Management Chapter 5 Accident Investigation and SMS Chapter 6 Hazards Chapter 7 Risks Chapter 8 Controls Chapter 9 Taxonomies Chapter 10 Process-Based Safety Risk Management / Safety Assurance Chapter 11 Managing the SMS Chapter 12 Tools and Analysis Methods Chapter 13 SMS Effectiveness Chapter 14 Concluding Thoughts on the Future of SMSEpilogue – Quest Airlines

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