Risk assessment Books

Book SynopsisProbably the UK's greatest living statistician' TelegraphFrom the UK's statistical national treasure', a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertaintyWe live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don't know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know

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Book SynopsisA veteran Wall Street Journal reporter dives into the world of billion-dollar traders and high-stakes crisis predictors who strive to turn extreme events into financial windfalls. There's no doubt that our world has gotten more extreme. Pandemics, climate change, superpower rivalries, technological disruption, political radicalisation, religious fundamentalism all threaten chaos that put trillions in assets at risk. But around the world, across a wide variety of disciplines, would-be super-forecasters are trying to take the guesswork out of what formerly seemed like random chance. Some put their faith in black swans' unpredictable, catastrophic events that can't be foreseen but send exotic financial instruments screaming in high-profit directions. Most famous among this group of big-bet traders are those who run the Universa fund, who, on days of extreme upheaval, have made as much as $1 billion. Author Scott Patterson gained exclusive access to Universa strategists and met with sa

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Book Synopsis''Brilliant and highly entertaining, this book is essential reading for every leader, regardless of age or experience.'' - Admiral William McRaven, author of Make Your Bed--------What if you could learn how to expect the unexpected?In business, like in life, foresight is crucial for avoiding pitfalls and disaster - and yet it''s something we spend nearly no time developing. Retired four-star general Stan McChrystal has lived a life associated with the deadly risks of combat; he has been forced to analyse and prepare for situations he didn''t even know were possible. As a business consultant, he has seen how hundreds of individuals and organizations - too often and to great cost - fail to mitigate risk. Why? Because they focus on the probability of something happening instead of the interface through which any and all risks can be managed.In Risk: A User''s Guide, McChrystal presents a new system of responding to risk. He lays out ten dimensions of control which we can adjust at any given time, no matter the context: narrative, bias, action, timing, adaptability, communication, technology, diversity, structure and leadership. Drawing on compelling examples ranging from military history to the business world, and offering infinitely practical exercises to improve preparedness, McChrystal illustrates how these ten factors are almost always in effect - and how, by considering them constantly, individuals and organizations can exert mastery over every conceivable sort of risk that they might face.We may not be able to see into the future, but Risk gives us a framework for improving our resistance and building a strong defense against what we know -- and what we don''t.--------''A brilliant user''s guide that demonstrates how managing risk is about how we lead, rather than getting mathematical equations right.'' - Annie Duke, bestselling author of Thinking In Bets and How To Decide''Measured, meticulous, and filled with practical, pragmatic wisdom from both war and peace, McChrystal''s clear-eyed, unsentimental guidance cuts to the heart of our precarious existence. A must-read leadership bible.'' - James Kerr, bestselling author of Legacy''An essential playbook on mastering all dimensions of risk. For soldiers, educators, CEOs, entrepreneurs, government leaders, and everyone in between.'' - Keith Krach, former Undersecretary of State and CEO of DocuSignTrade ReviewAn absolute masterpiece on the subject of risk! Brilliant and highly entertaining, this book is essential reading for every leader, regardless of age or experience. * Admiral William McRaven, author of Make Your Bed *A brilliant user's guide that demonstrates how managing risk is about how we lead, rather than getting mathematical equations right. Fundamental reading for any leader looking to understand and strengthen their team's Risk Immune System. * Annie Duke, bestselling author of Thinking in Bets and How to Decide *General McChrystal is swiftly becoming our most important leadership voice. Measured, meticulous, and filled with practical, pragmatic wisdom from both war and peace, his clear-eyed, unsentimental guidance cuts to the heart of our precarious existence. A must-read leadership bible for troubling times. * James Kerr, bestselling author of Legacy *An essential playbook on mastering all dimensions of risk. For soldiers, educators, CEOs, entrepreneurs, government leaders, and everyone in between, the general captures, with precision and clarity, how staying risk fit can unleash your team's maximum potential. * Keith Krach, former under secretary of state, chairman and CEO of DocuSign and Ariba, chairman of Purdue University Board of Trustees *

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Book SynopsisFor fans of The Black Swan and written by a veteran Wall Street Journal reporter, this is a fascinating deep dive into the world of billion-dollar traders and high-stakes crisis predictors who strive to turn extreme events into financial windfalls. There’s no doubt that our world has gotten more extreme. Pandemics, climate change, superpower rivalries, technological disruption, political radicalisation, religious fundamentalism — all threaten chaos that put trillions in assets at risk. But around the world, across a wide variety of disciplines, would-be super-forecasters are trying to take the guesswork out of what formerly seemed like random chance. Some put their faith in ‘black swans’ — unpredictable, catastrophic events that can’t be foreseen but send exotic financial instruments screaming in high-profit directions. Most famous among this group of big-bet traders are those who run the Universa fund, who, on days of extreme upheaval, have made as much as $1 billion. Author Scott Patterson gained exclusive access to Universa strategists and met with savvy seers in a variety of fields, from earthquake prediction to counterterrorism to climatology, to see if it’s actually possible to bet on disaster — and win. Riveting, relevant, and revelatory, this is a must-read for anyone curious about how some of today’s investors alchemise catastrophe into profit.Trade Review‘It’s not just the wild success of the catastrophists that makes this book fascinating but the way their philosophy reversed many of the “rules” of investing.’ -- John Arlidge * The Sunday Times *‘A closely observed chronicle of the storm-chasing edgelords of finance and the critics with whom they clash … Even those unfamiliar with, or uninterested in, the oscillations of the stock market may find themselves gripped by Patterson’s account.’ -- Marie Solis * The New York Times *‘In Chaos Kings, the indefatigable Scott Patterson has done it again: delivered a riveting account of Wall Street mavericks whose unconventional understanding of risk has netted them a fortune and us a fascinating account of how they did it. The unlikely partnership between Mark Spitznagel and Nassim Taleb has made them rich, saved their clients from financial calamity, and, under Patterson’s deft pen, produced an epic page turner.’ -- William D. Cohan, New York Times bestselling author of Power Failure, Money and Power, and House of Cards‘Scott Patterson’s Chaos Kings is an extraordinary exploration of cutting-edge efforts to understand the manifold and interconnected risks slamming civilisation at an alarming rate. It’s a critical read for anyone with an interest in what’s coming next and how to prepare for it, financially and otherwise. Scott has an uncanny knack for diving into the fascinating convergence of technology and investing, so I’m always excited to see what he’s discovering.’ -- Bradley Hope, New York Times bestselling co-author of Billion Dollar Whale and co-founder of Project Brazen‘Fast paced like a thriller but, also, thought-provoking in its willingness to show us the range of possible catastrophes, Chaos Kings tracks the adventures of contrarian investors who, rather than hide from chaos and confusion, seek it out. Their reward in many cases: a fortune. This book teems with great stories as well as market insights that you won’t get from conventional investors.’ -- Aaron Brown, former Chief Risk Manager at AQR Capital Management, and author of The Poker Face of Wall Street and Red-Blooded Risk‘Financial markets covet stability; they don't like surprises. In our new age of crisis, Scott Patterson convincingly recounts how a unique type of trader has learned to embrace the disruptions and make a lot of money doing so. Combining risk theory, finance, and portraits of some of the most interesting billionaires of doom, Patterson takes us on a disturbing tour of what could come tumbling down. But he also provides a detailed road map showing average citizens how to steer past catastrophe. You’ll be left wondering whether these Chaos Kings are brilliant, opportunistic, visionary, or even loathsome. In Patterson’s lively account, you’ll definitely find them fascinating.’ -- Juliette Kayyem, former Assistant Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, and author of The Devil Never Sleeps: learning to live in an age of disasters‘The world is an increasingly unstable place, threatening to go off the rails at any time. This chaos is devastating to many, but a boon to a few who are cashing in on it. Read this engaging book to learn about who they are and how they do it.’ -- Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics and author of Financial Shock and Paying the Price‘We live in a world of pandemics, climate change, war, and unstable institutions. Scott Patterson’s fascinating Chaos Kings is a provocative look at those placing big bets who believe they have tamed the financial risk whipped up by these unruly beasts. It holds perceptive insights for anyone who lives — or invests — in our modern uncertain world.’ -- Russell Gold, author of Superpower and The Boom‘A captivating, important, and unsettling book. Chaos Kings takes a timely look at how to survive and prosper in an increasingly uncertain and unstable world of global warming, pandemics, and geopolitical danger.’ -- William Green, author of Richer, Wiser, Happier: how the world’s greatest investors win in markets and life‘A richly reported work that features a fascinating ensemble of quirky characters. Important reading for anyone interested in risk-taking now — and in the future.’ -- Anita Raghavan, author of The Billionaire’s Apprentice‘Rock-star status is reserved for a clique who have made storm-chasing in stocks and bonds into something between an art and a science, and an extraordinarily lucrative one at that. They are the subject of Chaos Kings, a new book by Scott Patterson, who casts an engaging and accessible light on what makes these oddball savants tick, and how they make fortunes from disaster … Chaos Kings avoids making readers feel like they’re out of their depth … The power of the competing egos at play and the urgency of their message on everything from pandemics to the climate to the health of your lifesavings carry the tale.’ -- Katie Martin * Financial Times *‘Wall Street Journal stalwart Patterson continues his explorations of high finance with a clutch of contrarian risk takers … Deft, accessible analysis and guidance. Complex economic and scientific theories lucidly rendered.’ -- Kirkus Reviews, starred review‘Wall Street Journal reporter Patterson (Dark Pools) delivers an illuminating investigation into those who profit from anticipating crises … [T]he author has a knack for translating complicated financial manoeuvres into easily comprehensible terms … Detailed yet accessible, this will appeal to fans of Michael Lewis’s The Big Short.’ * Publishers Weekly *‘Chaos Kings will provide the reader with plenty of food for thought — along with some sleepless nights.’ -- Matthew Partridge * Money Week *‘The book highlights those who have made money while the world falls apart. But not just any money — this book talks about making billions while there is metaphorical, or literal blood on the streets … It’s fascinating, a little sickening, and one heck of a yarn of a book. It is well worth the read and the learning that will come from it … Patterson’s book is one of the best financial stories around. Highly recommended.’ -- Chris Reed * NZ Booklovers *Praise for Dark Pools: ‘Richly reported … an invaluable piece of timely journalism that should be read by regulators and anyone with a cent in the stock market … You will never look at the opening bell in the same way.’ * Financial Times *Praise for Dark Pools: ‘Remarkable … even long-time participants in electronic markets will learn a lot from this book.’ * Forbes *Praise for The Quants: ‘Fascinating and deeply disturbing … Patterson gives faces and personalities to the quants, making their saga accessible and intriguing … [he’s] onto a big story that begs follow-up.’ * New York Times *Praise for The Quants: ‘Scott Patterson has the ability to see things you and I don't notice. In The Quants he does an admirable job of debunking the myths of black box traders and provides a very entertaining narrative in the process.’ -- Nassim Nicholas Taleb, New York Times bestselling author of Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan

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Book SynopsisExplore the understanding and statistical modeling of risk with this accessible book that requires only a basic background in mathematics. The authors discuss several major disasters, before introducing the mathematical tools required to analyze them. Even the more technical discussions are interspersed with historical comments and many examples.

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Book SynopsisThe phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertaintyWhat have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they''re impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. ''Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person'' Will Self, Independent on Sunday''He leaps like some superhero of the mind'' Boyd Tonkin, IndependentTrade ReviewA fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected * Guardian *Like the conversation of a raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling * Financial Times *It has altered modern thinking * The Times *Confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot * Sunday Times *The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works -- Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and SlowGreat fun... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling -- Stephen J. Dubner, co-author of FreakonomicsThe most prophetic voice of all * GQ *

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Book SynopsisKate Boothroyd is the Director of KB Risk Consulting Limited, a risk management consultancy. She is a Certified Fellow of the Institute of Risk Management, one of their accredited trainers and lead developer of the IRM's updated Enterprise Risk Management Certificate. She was previously Deputy Chair of the IRM. She is based in Huddersfield, UK. Clive Thompson was Deputy Chair of the IRM until 2020. He has been a risk manager and consultant delivering projects globally and is a Certified Fellow of the IRM. He is based in West Sussex, UK.The Institute of Risk Management is a world leading professional body for risk management, driving excellence in managing risk to ensure organizations are ready for opportunities and threats of the future.

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Book SynopsisAlan Calder is Group CEO of GRC International Group plc, the AIM-listed company that owns IT Governance Ltd.. He led the world's first successful implementation of BS 7799 (now ISO 27001) and was involved in developing a wide range of information security management training courses, accredited by the International Board for IT Governance Qualifications (IBITGQ). Steve Watkins is Executive Director at GRC International Group plc, chair of the UK ISO/IEC 27001 User Group and contracted technical assessor for UKAS. He is a member of the international technical committee responsible for the ISO 27000 family of standards, and chairs the UK National Standards Body's technical committee IST/33 (information security, cyber security and privacy protection) that mirrors it.Trade Review"This book is to ISO27002 what ISO27002 is to ISO27001 - it is the guidance to the standard's guidance. As such, it is the most impressively comprehensive guide to implementing ISO27001-level InfoSec in your organisation. It gives detailed understanding and insight about the motivation and purpose of the different controls that will help build a fit-for-purpose ISMS. Because of this, I chose it as the set book for the very popular Open University Introduction to InfoSec module." * Dr Jon Hall, Open University InfoSec Module Chair and Author *"A well-structured and informative book that deserves a place on the bookshelf of any ISMS lead implementer and an invaluable reference for organisations seeking accredited third-party certification." * Alastair Hunter - UKAS Information Assurance Technical Focus *Table of Contents Chapter - 01: Why is information security necessary?; Chapter - 02: The UK combined code, the FRC risk guidance and Sarbanes–Oxley; Chapter - 03: ISO27001; Chapter - 04: Organizing information security; Chapter - 05: Information security policy and scope; Chapter - 06: The risk assessment and Statement of Applicability; Chapter - 07: Mobile devices; Chapter - 08: Human resources security; Chapter - 09: Asset management; Chapter - 10: Media handling; Chapter - 11: Access control; Chapter - 12: User access management; Chapter - 13: System and application access control; Chapter - 14: Cryptography; Chapter - 15: Physical and environmental security; Chapter - 16: Equipment security; Chapter - 17: Operations security; Chapter - 18: Controls against malicious software (malware); Chapter - 19: Communications management; Chapter - 20: Exchanges of information; Chapter - 21: System acquisition, development and maintenance; Chapter - 22: Development and support processes; Chapter - 23: Supplier relationships; Chapter - 24: Monitoring and information security incident management; Chapter - 25: Business and information security continuity management; Chapter - 26: Compliance; Chapter - 27: The ISO27001 audit

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Book Synopsis''Brilliant and highly entertaining, this book is essential reading for every leader, regardless of age or experience.'' - Admiral William McRaven, author of Make Your Bed -------- What if you could learn how to expect the unexpected?In business, like in life, foresight is crucial for avoiding pitfalls and disaster - and yet it''s something we spend nearly no time developing. Retired four-star general Stan McChrystal has lived a life associated with the deadly risks of combat; he has been forced to analyse and prepare for situations he didn''t even know were possible. As a business consultant, he has seen how hundreds of individuals and organizations - too often and to great cost - fail to mitigate risk. Why? Because they focus on the probability of something happening instead of the interface through which any and all risks can be managed.In Risk: A User''s Guide, McChrystal presents a new system of responding to risk. He

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Book SynopsisWhat existential threats does humanity face? And how can we secure our future? ‘The Precipice is a powerful book . . . Ord’s love for humanity and hope for its future is infectious’ Spectator ‘Ord’s analysis of the science is exemplary . . . Thrillingly written’ Sunday Times We live during the most important era of human history. In the twentieth century, we developed the means to destroy ourselves – without developing the moral framework to ensure we won't. This is the Precipice, and how we respond to it will be the most crucial decision of our time. Oxford moral philosopher Toby Ord explores the risks to humanity's future, from the familiar man-made threats of climate change and nuclear war, to the potentially greater, more unfamiliar threats from engineered pandemics and advanced artificial intelligence. With clear and rigorous thinking, Ord calculates the various risk levels, and shows how our own time fits within the larger story of human history. We can say with certainty that the novel coronavirus does not pose such a risk. But could the next pandemic? And what can we do, in our present moment, to face the risks head on? A major work that brings together the disciplines of physics, biology, earth and computer science, history, anthropology, statistics, international relations, political science and moral philosophy, The Precipice is a call for a new understanding of our age: a major reorientation in the way we see the world, our history, and the role we play in it.Trade ReviewToby Ord is today’s Carl Sagan. Clear and inspiring, this book leaves us hopeful for a flourishing human future -- Christine Peterson, co-founder of the Foresight InstituteA powerfully argued book that alerts us to what is perhaps the most important – and yet also most neglected – problem we will ever face -- Peter Singer, author of 'Animal Liberation' and 'The Life You Can Save'The Precipice separates science from hype and will remain the definitive work on existential risk for a long time to come -- Max Tegmark, author of 'Life 3.0' and 'Our Mathematical Universe'A fascinating and persuasive guide to the most important topic of all: how our species will survive the risks we pose to our continued existence -- Stuart Russell, author of 'Human Compatible' and 'Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach'This book is a wake-up call to the existential threats of nuclear and biological weapons and the urgent need for action. A must-read that galvanises us to play a role in addressing these risks -- Angela Kane, former UN High Representative for Disarmament AffairsHumanity has never been more vulnerable – there’s now a one-in-six chance that civilisation won’t make it to the end of the century, argues a highly influential philosopher . . . Ord’s analysis of the science is exemplary . . . Thrillingly written * Sunday Times *Many people have recently found that they want to read books offering the grandest perspectives possible on human existence, such as Sapiens . . . Toby Ord’s new book is a startling and rigorous contribution to this genre that deserves to be just as widely read * Evening Standard *Splendid . . . The Precipice is a powerful book, written with a philosopher’s eye . . . Ord’s love for humanity and hope for its future is infectious * Spectator *Urgent and vaguely prophetic . . . In a year in which our everyday lives were upended by the unexpected (or rather the expected yet neglected), The Precipice is a good way to put everything in perspective -- Books of the Year * WIRED *The Precipice is a fascinating book, one that showcases both the knowledge of its author and his humanity * Axios *A book that seems made for the present moment * New Yorker *A story of the greatest risks to humanity’s future, from the climate crisis and nuclear war to pandemics and artificial intelligence -- Highlights for 2020 * Guardian *

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Book SynopsisA global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era or a region. Advances in technology are adding dangers of a new kind. It could happen again.In Global Catastrophic Risks 25 leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including asteroid impacts, gamma-ray bursts, Earth-based natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse. The book also addresses over-arching issues - policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes. This is invaluable reading for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields.Trade ReviewReview from previous edition This volume is remarkably entertaining and readable...It's risk assessment meets science fiction. * Natural Hazards Observer *The book works well, providing a mine of peer-reviewed information on the great risks that threaten our own and future generations. * Nature *We should welcome this fascinating and provocative book. * Martin J Rees (from foreword) *[Provides] a mine of peer-reviewed information on the great risks that threaten our own and future generations. * Nature *Table of ContentsI BACKGROUND; II RISKS FROM NATURE; III RISKS FROM UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES; IV RISKS FROM HOSTILE ACTS

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Book SynopsisA fully updated, step-by-step guide for implementing COSO''s Enterprise Risk Management COSO Enterprise Risk Management, Second Edition clearly enables organizations of all types and sizes to understand and better manage their risk environments and make better decisions through use of the COSO ERM framework. The Second Edition discusses the latest trends and pronouncements that have affected COSO ERM and explores new topics, including the PCAOB''s release of AS5; ISACA''s recently revised CobiT; and the recently released IIA Standards. Offers you expert advice on how to carry out internal control responsibilities more efficiently Updates you on the ins and outs of the COSO Report and its emergence as the new platform for understanding all aspects of risk in today''s organization Shows you how an effective risk management program, following COSO ERM, can help your organization to better comply with the Sarbanes-Oxley Act KTable of ContentsPreface xi Chapter 1: Introduction: Enterprise Risk Management Today 1 The COSO Internal Controls Framework: How Did We Get Here? 2 The COSO Internal Controls Framework 3 COSO Internal Controls: The Principal Recognized Internal Controls Standard 14 An Introduction to COSO ERM 14 Governance, Risk, and Compliance 15 Global Computer Products: Our Example Company 16 Chapter 2: Importance of Governance, Risk, and Compliance Principles 21 Road to Effective GRC Principles 22 Importance of GRC Governance 23 Risk Management Component of GRC 25 GRC and Enterprise Compliance 26 Importance of Effective GRC Practices and Principles 28 Chapter 3: Risk Management Fundamentals 31 Fundamentals: Risk Management Phases 32 Other Risk Assessment Techniques 45 Chapter 4: COSO ERM Framework 51 ERM Definitions and Objectives: A Portfolio View of Risk 51 COSO ERM Framework Model 55 Other Dimensions of the ERM Framework 86 Chapter 5: Implementing ERM in the Enterprise 89 Roles and Responsibilities of an Enterprise Risk Management Function 90 Risk Management Policies, Standards, and Strategies 100 Business, IT, and Risk Transfer Processes 105 Risk Management Reviews and Corrective Action Practices 108 ERM Communications Approaches 112 CRO and an Effective Enterprise Risk Management Function 113 Chapter 6: Importance of Strong Enterprise Governance Practices 115 History and Background of Enterprise Governance: A U.S. Perspective 116 Enterprise Integrity and Ethical Behavior 119 Disclosure and Transparency 125 Rights and Equitable Treatment of Shareholders and Key Stakeholders 126 Governance Role and Responsibilities of the Board 128 Governance as a Key Element of GRC 128 Chapter 7: Enterprise Compliance Issues Today 131 Compliance Issues Today 132 Establish a Compliance Assessment Team 133 Compliance Risk Assessments and Compliance Program Reviews 136 Work Unit–Level Compliance Tracking and Review Processes 138 Compliance-Related Procedures and Staff Education Programs 141 Enterprise Hotline Compliance and Whistleblower Support 142 Assessing the Overall Enterprise Compliance Program 144 Chapter 8: Integrating ERM with COSO Internal Controls 147 COSO Internal Controls Background and Earlier Legislation 147 Efforts Leading to the Treadway Commission 151 COSO Internal Controls Framework 156 COSO Internal Controls and COSO ERM: Compared 174 Chapter 9: Sarbanes-Oxley and Enterprise Risk Management Concerns 177 Sarbanes-Oxley Act Background 177 SOx Legislation Overview 179 Enterprise Risk Management and SOx Section 404 Reviews 193 Internal Controls Reporting and Materiality 198 PCAOB Risk-Based Auditing Standards 199 Sarbanes-Oxley: The Other Sections 200 SOx and COSO ERM 201 Chapter 10: Corporate Culture and Risk Portfolio Management 203 Whistleblower and Hotline Functions 204 Risk Portfolio Management 208 Integrated Enterprise-Wide Risk Management 211 Chapter 11: OCEG Capability Model GRC Standards 215 GRC Capability Model “Red Book” 215 Other OCEG Materials: The “Burgundy Book” 223 Level and Scope of the OCEG Standards-Setting Authority 224 Chapter 12: Importance of GRC Principles in the Board Room 225 Board Decisions and Risk Management 226 Board Organization and Governance Rules 230 Corporate Charters and the Board Committee Structure 231 Audit Committees and Managing Risks 235 Establishing a Board-Level Risk Committee 238 Audit and Risk Committee Coordination 244 COSO ERM and Corporate Governance 245 Chapter 13: Role of Internal Audit in Enterprise Risk Management 247 Internal Audit Standards for Evaluating Risk 248 COSO ERM for More Effective Internal Audit Planning 251 Risk-Based Internal Audit Findings and Recommendations 264 COSO ERM and Internal Audit 265 Chapter 14: Understanding Project Management Risks 267 Project Management Process 268 PMBOK_ Guide: A Guide to the Project Management Book of Knowledge 269 PMBOK_ Guide’s Project Manager Risk Management Approach 272 Project-Related Risks: What Can Go Wrong 282 Implementing ERM for Project Managers 285 Chapter 15: Information Technology and Enterprise Risk Management 291 IT and the COSO ERM Framework 292 IT Application Systems Risks 294 Effective IT Continuity Planning 302 Worms, Viruses, and System Network Risks 307 IT and Effective ERM Processes 309 Chapter 16: Establishing an Effective GRC Culture throughout the Enterprise 311 First Steps to Establishing a GRC Culture: An Example 312 Promoting the Concept of Enterprise Risk 314 Establishing of Enterprise-Wide Governance Awareness 319 Enterprise Codes of Conduct 323 Building a GRC Culture: Risk, Governance, and Compliance Education Programs 326 Keeping the GRC Culture Current 327 Chapter 17: ISO 31000 and 38500 Risk Management Worldwide Standards 331 ISO Standards-Setting Process 332 Understanding ISO 31000 334 ISO 38500: The Corporate Governance of IT 337 Implementing an ISO Standard 340 Chapter 18: ERM and GRC Principles Going Forward 343 ERM and GRC for the Internal Controls Professional 344 COSO’s Ongoing Support Role 347 COSO ERM and GRC Future Prospects 348 About the Author 351 Index 353

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Book SynopsisDavid Rubens is Professor in the United Nations University for Peace European Centre for Peace and Development (Belgrade), where he is Programme Director for the International Postgraduate Study Programme in Strategic Risk and Crisis Management. He founded the Institute of Strategic Risk Management in 2018, which has established itself as a leading platform for academics, practitioners and policy makers across the range of security, risk and crisis management-related sectors.Trade Review"This is the right book at the right time. This is an imaginative, far sighted and relevant book, and I take great pleasure in recommending it for anyone interested in any aspect of strategic risk and crisis management." * Professor Ljiljana Markovic PhD, Academic Director, ECPD *"Captivating. David Rubens has brought a lifetime of scholarship and practical work on Risk and Crisis Management to a subject we spend too little time thinking, or more importantly, doing something about. His entertaining stories and practical lessons offer a supremely useful handbook for everyone who confronts risks and crises in today's world - that's all of us." * General Stanley McChrystal, Author, Team of Teams *"David Rubens provides an incredibly timely and indispensable guide, equipping managers, policy makers, and all of us with the knowledge and insights for managing complex risks that we need if we are to find a safe course through the treacherous waters that lie before us." * Stephen Flynn, Founding Director, Global Resilience Institute, Northeastern University *"There is an ever-increasing need to look at strategic risk and crisis management from a meta-perspective, allowing both high level integration of multiple stakeholders but also ensuring that there is meaningful engagement in the issues facing communities around the world. David Rubens' book offers both a deeply researched and highly detailed academic analysis combined with a practical approach that will have real value for practitioners, whatever area of risk management they are involved in." * Nadine Sulkowski, Project Lead, Erasmus+ BUiLD programme (Building Universities for Leading in Disaster Resilience) *"Crisis management practitioners have recognized for years that a definitive and detailed handbook that can help all levels of those involved in crisis management planning, policy or execution is needed. This is now available, and I strongly recommend anybody and everybody interested or engaged in crisis management have this book in quick and easy reach." * David Horobin, Head of Crisis Management, Geneva Centre for Security Policy *"This handbook is extremely useful and timely, as it fills the gap between academia and practitioner, providing vital insights to discuss complex risks whilst providing a framework for action." * Xavier Castellanos, Under-Secretary-General, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies *"In a world of chaos and instability, this book matches formal academic rigour with a deep understanding of the challenges that the world is throwing at us. It offers the reader a structure and methodology that is invaluable in developing frameworks that would support our own activities within the regional and global risk environment we are all operating in." * Marqueza Cathalina L. Reyes, Senior Technical Advisor for Resilience and DRR, Climate Change Commission Philippines *Table of Contents Chapter - 00: Introduction Chapter - 01: Setting the scene - An overview of historical crisis management research; Chapter - 02: Corporate risk management in the 2020s; Chapter - 03: Black swans + grey rhinos – being ready; Chapter - 04: Causes of crisis management failure; Chapter - 05: Incident command systems and hierarchical management; Chapter - 06: Leadership; Chapter - 07: Resilience; Chapter - 08: The regulatory system – a failing safety net; Chapter - 09: Global urban resilience in the 2020s; Chapter - 10: Creating the new urban order; Chapter - 11: In the stranglehold of a pandemic - learning from Covid-19; Chapter - 12: Wicked problems; Chapter - 13: Case studies;

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Book SynopsisThe book offers important insight relevant to Corporate, Government and Global organizations management in general. The internationally recognised authors tackle vital issues in decision making, how organizational risk is managed, how can technological and organizational complexities interact, what are the impediments for effective learning and how large, medium, and small organizations can, and in fact must, increase their resilience. Managers, organizational consultants, expert professionals, and training specialists; particularly those in high risk organizations, may find the issues covered in the book relevant to their daily work and a potential catalyst for thought and action. A timely analysis of the Columbia disaster and the organizational lessons that can be learned from it. Includes contributions from those involved in the Investigation Board report into the incident. Tackles vital issues such as the role ofTrade Review“The authors lift up the heavy curtain of secrecy at NASA to look at the many backstage decisions that led to the Columbia space shuttle disaster. Organizational leaders too often fail to learn from their past mistakes, but readers of this volume will be better equipped to understand and hopefully prevent future catastrophic failures.” Scott D. Sagan, Stanford University “As the influential philosopher Karl Popper observed, to avoid perishing along with our false theories, we systematically try to eliminate our false theories, letting them die in our stead. The Columbia disaster is a stark and tragic lesson in the consequences of false theories. Using the Columbia disaster and NASA as its focal points, Organization at the Limit offers a rich, multifaceted examination that reveals how and why complex organizations using risky technologies often produce and sustain false theories. The analysis yields insights indispensable for those who wish to help such organizations unlearn their false theories, learn more truthful ones, and avoid the disasters that lurk beyond their limits.” Joel A. C. Baum, University of Toronto “The Columbia disaster has much to teach any student and manager of organizations. In this marvellous collection, Professors Farjoun and Starbuck have assembled some of the most profound and relevant thinking about the hitherto hidden vulnerabilities of today’s organizations, their sources, and just how to address them. Readers will be most amply rewarded.” Danny Miller, HEC Montreal “The CAIB report was the most sophisticated official examination of an accident ever. Now we have an exhaustive social science exploration which amplifies, extends, enriches, and even at times contradicts the Board’s analysis. A variety of theoretical perspectives are applied, generating many fresh insights.” Charles Perrow, Yale University Howard Aldrich, Review on Amazon: After two horrible disasters, do you think that NASA has learned from its mistakes, and that it will never happen again? If so, you need to read this book! In 18 well-written chapters, the editors have assembled a set of experts on organizations and disasters to analyze lessons from the Columbia disaster. Because the Challenger disaster foreshadowed many of the problems that subsequently turned up in official investigations of the Columbia disaster, it also figures heavily in this edited book. The authors demonstrate the analytic power of an historically informed organizational analysis of a large governmental agency under strong political pressure to produce results with limited resources. Two points in particular caught my eye. First, after the Challenger disaster, NASA was supposedly reorganized to place greater emphasis on safety. However, because the organization began to define the space exploration program as a problem of meeting production goals and deadlines, "safety" never achieved the priority in the organization than it deserved. Instead of seeing the space shuttle program as a developmental one, exploring the risky frontier of technological knowledge, NASA officials treated it like any other flight program. Second, as anomalies continued to crop up after flights, engineers and officials began to think about deviations from acceptable practices and outcomes as "normal." As deviation was normalized, unusual events were taken for granted and didn't provoke the kind of response than one would expect from life threatening occurrences. Scholars interested in organization studies, organizational learning, systems theory, and other academic disciplines will learn much from this book. However, one can also hope that public officials will take its lessons to heart and look more closely at the design of other risky systems that are operating close to the limits of our scientific knowledge. Amazon Table of ContentsNotes on contributors. Foreword: Sean O'Keefe. Part I: Introduction. 1 Introduction: Organizational Aspects of the Columbia Disaster: Moshe Farjoun and William H. Starbuck (New York University). Part II: The Context of the Disaster. 2 History and Policy in the Space Shuttle Program: Moshe Farjoun (New York University). 3 System Effects: On Slippery Slopes, Repeating Negative Patterns, and Learning from Mistake? Diane Vaughan (Boston College). 4 Organizational Learning and Action in the Midst of Safety Drift: Revisiting the Space Shuttle Program’s Recent History: Moshe Farjoun (New York University). 5 The Space Between in Space Transportation: A Relational Analysis of the Failure of STS-107: Karlene H. Roberts, Peter M. Madsen, Vinit M. Desai (University of California – Berkley). Part III: Influences on decision making. 6 The Opacity of Risk: Language and the Culture of Safety in NASA’s Space Shuttle Program: Willie Ocasio (Northwestern University). 7 Coping with Temporal Uncertainty: When Rigid, Ambitious Deadlines Don’t Make Sense: Sally Blount (New York University), Mary Waller (Tulane University), and Sophie Leroy (New York University). 8 Attention to Production Schedule and Safety as Determinants of Risk-Taking in NASA’s Decision to Launch the Columbia Shuttle: Angela Buljan (University of Zagreb) and Zur Shapira (New York University). Part IV: The Imaging Debate. 9 Making Sense of Blurred Images: Mindful Organizing in Mission STS-107: Karl Weick (University of Michigan). 10 The Price of Progress: Structurally Induced Inaction: Scott A. Snook and Jeffrey C. Connor (Harvard University). 11 Data Indeterminacy: One NASA, Two Modes: Raghu Garud and Roger Dunbar (New York University). 12 The Recovery Window: Organizational Learning Following Ambiguous Threats: Amy C. Edmondson, Michael A. Roberto, Richard M.J. Bohmer, Erika M. Ferlins, Laura R. Feldman (Harvard University). 13 Barriers to the Interpretation and Diffusion of Information about Potential Problems in Organizations: Lessons from the Space Shuttle Columbia: Frances Milliken, Theresa K. Lant, and Ebony Bridwell-Mitchell (New York University). Part V: Beyond Explanation. 14 Systems Approaches to Safety: NASA and the Space Shuttle Disasters: Nancy Leveson, Joel Cutcher-Gershenfeld, John S. Carroll, Betty Barrett, Alexander Brown, Nicolas Dulac, Lydia Fraile, and Karen Marais (MIT). 15 Creating Foresight: Lessons for Enhancing Resilience from Columbia: David Woods (Ohio State). 16 Making NASA More Effective: William H. Starbuck (New York University) and Johnny Stevenson (NASA). 17 Observations on the Columbia Accident: Henry McDonald (University of Tennessee). Part VI: Conclusion. 18 Conclusion: Moshe Farjoun and William H. Starbuck (New York University). Index

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Book SynopsisA History of Dangerous Assumptions features over two hundred illuminating and intriguing case-studies of this fascinating subject, including some of the most disastrous assumptions ever foisted upon the human race. This book began as an experiment, to discover if acting on assumptions could be discerned through the ages. In fact, this matter of assuming… of jumping to conclusions… of lacking sufficient evidence… of taking things for granted… seems to have caused far more problems for civilisation than expected. From Hannibal’s crossing of the Alps, to Bonaparte’s march on Moscow; from the hubris of Icarus and Phaeton, to the toppling towers of the Tay Bridge; from the maddening phantoms of a Northwest Passage, to the sinking of the Titanic; from the Schlieffen Plan of the First World War, to the creation of assumptions in the approach to D-Day; from Jean-Jacques Rousseau to Sherlock Holmes, here lies a highly contrasted trove of stories, episodes and anecdotes, their common link the mysterious mischief of assumption.

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Book SynopsisAndrew Hayward is a lawyer with more than a dozen years' experience of compliance roles across sectors. Having previously worked for AstraZeneca and Balfour Beatty, he is now Head of Compliance and Ethics at Subsea 7, an engineering, construction and services contractor to the offshore energy industry. He worked with the British Standards Institute to develop the first anti-bribery standard (BS10500) and was part of the UK delegation on the development of the International Anti-Bribery Standard (BS ISO 37001:2016).Tony Osborn is an award-winning writer, creative consultant and content developer. He has worked with leading global corporations to help them find and tell their stories and connect with stakeholders. He helped shape and write Serco's online and printed Code of Conduct, and, with Andrew Hayward, the award-winning Balfour Beatty Code of Conduct.Trade Review"The 'masters and apprentices' book of compliance - practical insights for the professional and lay person alike."" * Christopher Wright, Head of Compliance, LafargeHolcim *"The authors of this book succeeded in explaining precisely, pleasantly and in an easily understandable way what everybody should know and practice in compliance and ethics. Nobody may say anymore: 'I didn't know how to do it'." * François Vincke, Member of the Brussels Bar, Vice-Chair ICC Commission Corporate Responsibility and Anti-corruption *"The engaging style of this book will take its audience beyond the word 'compliance' - seen as so negative by so many demonstrates how to win over hearts and minds. The stories are a useful and practical way to make learning more memorable and therefore effective. The authors are to be commended for their approach in delivering a must read for every CECO... A seminal textbook for those teaching business ethics at universities and business schools." * Philippa Foster Back CBE, Director, Institute of Business Ethics *"Just as importantly, the work provides the right balance between ethics and values on the one hand and compliance programme elements on the other in discussing what works and what hasn't. Brilliantly written and easy to understand, it provides meaningful insight for both the experienced compliance professional and newcomers to the field. It masterfully weaves real stories and anecdotes into the materials in an entertaining way, bringing the discussion to life. Destined to become a classic in the compliance literature, it is required reading for anyone on the compliance journey." * Keith M. Korenchuk, VP & Chief Compliance Officer, Diagnostic Platform, Danaher Corporation/Beckman Coulter Inc. and former partner, Arnold & Porter LLP *"The authors provide such depth of understanding necessary to help entities navigate ethics and compliance in an effective and integrated way. They have managed to do so in a light and upbeat tone with some fun references ranging from rock 'n' roll to Lewis Carroll and a healthy poke at legalese." * Cécilia Fellouse-Guenkel, General Manager, Compliance For Good *Table of Contents Section - ONE: Chapter - 01: Why compliance isn’t working; Chapter - 02: The meaning, origins and role of compliance and ethics; Chapter - 03: Barriers to success; Chapter - 04: Looking for answers; Section - TWO: Chapter - 05: The anatomy of a compliance and ethics programme; Chapter - 06: Top-level commitment; Chapter - 07: Risk assessment and due diligence; Chapter - 08: Code of conduct and policies; Chapter - 09: Communication, education and training; Chapter - 10: Whistle-blowing hotline and speak-up culture; Chapter - 11: Procedures and controls; Chapter - 12: Investigations, remediation and enforcement; Chapter - 13: Assurance and continuous improvement; Chapter - 14: Implementation – The compliance and ethics function – and everyone else;

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Book SynopsisThis well-balanced introduction to enterprise risk management integrates quantitative and qualitative approaches and motivates key mathematical and statistical methods with abundant real-world cases - both successes and failures. Worked examples and end-of-chapter exercises support readers in consolidating what they learn. The mathematical level, which is suitable for graduate and senior undergraduate students in quantitative programs, is pitched to give readers a solid understanding of the concepts and principles involved, without diving too deeply into more complex theory. To reveal the connections between different topics, and their relevance to the real world, the presentation has a coherent narrative flow, from risk governance, through risk identification, risk modelling, and risk mitigation, capped off with holistic topics - regulation, behavioural biases, and crisis management - that influence the whole structure of ERM. The result is a text and reference that is ideal for graduate and senior undergraduate students, risk managers in industry, and anyone preparing for ERM actuarial exams.Trade Review'Quantitative Enterprise Risk Management can be strongly recommended to anyone seeking to develop their skills in risk management. The book will be particularly useful for those seeking to master the more challenging technical aspects of risk management missing in other textbooks.' Andrew Cairns, Heriot-Watt University'This hits the sweet spot between overly abstract mathematical and overly 'math lean' presentations of enterprise risk management.' Gary Hatfield, University of Minnesota'Hardy and Saunders have written a masterpiece that not only explains [ERM] from a quantitative perspective, but also manages to bridge the gap between it and more qualitative approaches. It impressively covers the whole spectrum from risk taxonomy, risk modelling and measurement, risk mitigation, risk transfer up to (behavioural) risk, and crisis management. I highly recommend it to all those who want to get a deeper understanding of ERM.' Rudi Zagst, Technical University of MunichTable of ContentsPreface; 1. Introduction to enterprise risk management; 2. Risk taxonomy; 3. Risk measures; 4. Frequency-Severity analysis; 5. Extreme value theory; 6. Copulas; 7. Stress testing; 8. Market risk models; 9. Short term portfolio risk; 10. Economic scenario generators; 11. Interest rate risk; 12. Credit risk; 13. Liquidity risk; 14. Model risk and governance; 15. Risk mitigation using options and derivatives; 16. Risk transfer; 17. Regulation of financial institutions; 18. Risk adjusted measures of profit and capital allocation; 19. Behavioural risk management; 20. Crisis management; A. Probability and statistics review; References; Index.

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Book SynopsisImplement practical solutions in business continuity management and organizational resilience guided by international best practice from ISO 22301:2019. Business continuity management and resilience are critical to maintaining a healthy business, but many organizations either do nothing (leaving themselves exposed to disruption), take short cuts (leaving major gaps) or fail to properly engage senior stakeholders. This book is a straightforward guide to delivering an effective business continuity capability, including practical solutions built from the author's personal experience managing hundreds of projects in a variety of business settings. Business Continuity Management compares incident management, crisis response and business continuity and how to explain their importance to senior decision makers to ensure appropriate investment. Readers will benefit from case studies of organizational crises and disruptions, including Home Depot, Nissan, RBS, Facebook, Equifax and KFC, and an exploration of lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic. With key performance indicators, templates and checklists covering planning, response, reporting and assurance, this book is the essential reference for business continuity and resilience which can be tailored to any organization.Trade Review"Resilience and good crisis management has never been more important to society and business. The threat of disruption arising from global crisis events is greater today than it has been for many generations. Organisation's that can respond well and recover from these events will be the ones that succeed in the future, whilst others will fail. Knowing where to start in building preparedness can be daunting. James does a great job here of explaining what resilience is for an organisation in simple terms; and crucially how to get it. The book contains practical guidance and support to the reader and is as relevant to those new to the topic as it is for the seasoned practitioner." * Julia Graham, Deputy CEO and Technical Director, Airmic *"Business continuity practices and approaches to operational resilience have matured, and the time is right for this new book which takes into account the many and varied nuances of today's organisations. James Crask pours his many years of first-hand experience across a range of organisational environments into an engaging and invaluable resource for any practitioner - seasoned or otherwise - offering a wealth of knowledge and advice on pragmatic and proportionate approaches to operational resilience." * Deborah Ritchie, Group Editor, CIR Magazine *"Resilience should be on the agenda at every board meeting for organisations that strives to be adaptable in a world of ever-changing risk. This is a masterful and highly pragmatic book that will give the reader a great understanding and toolset to implement a strong BCM system while ensuring the support of top management. James' ability to dig deep and offer amazing insights from real-life situations makes this a must-read for anyone that has an interest in business continuity management." * Magnus Josias, Co-founder & COO, Krizo *"To be a good business continuity management (BCM) practitioner the size of your 'toolkit' will determine the quality of your solution. James, in this book helps you to build a super 'toolkit' - not only by sharing his templates and wealth of experience which is illustrated with examples, but also by positioning BCM in relation to the larger goal of resilience. This book is not just suitable for beginners but seasoned practitioners will also learn a lot." * Michael Crooymans, Global Resilience Officer, Signify *Table of Contents Chapter - 00: About the author; Chapter - 01: Introduction; Section - PART ONE: Core principles; Chapter - 02: The evolution of resilience; Chapter - 03: What can we learn from international standards?; Chapter - 04: How business continuity and resilience differs between industries; Chapter - 05: Comparing incident management, crisis management and business continuity; Chapter - 06: Good practice in crisis response; Chapter - 07: Lessons for business continuity and resilience from COVID-19; Section - PART TWO: Guidance on delivering an effective business continuity capability; Chapter - 08: Gaining and maintaining the attention of the board; Chapter - 09: Developing the governance and implementing resources; Chapter - 10: Delivering the BIA and determining recovery strategies; Chapter - 11: Writing plans and procedures; Chapter - 12: Training and exercising; Chapter - 13: Supply chain resilience; Chapter - 14: Reviewing, auditing and improving; Section - PART THREE: Templates and checklists; Chapter - 15: Plan contents and tips for completion; Chapter - 16: Response templates; Chapter - 17: Assurance scorecard; Chapter - 18: Index;

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Book SynopsisIs your business playing it safe—or taking the right risks?If you read nothing else on managing risk, read these 10 articles. We've combed through hundreds of Harvard Business Review articles and selected the most important ones to help your company make smart decisions and thrive, even when the future is unclear.This book will inspire you to: Avoid the most common errors in risk management Understand the three distinct categories of risk and tailor your risk-management processes accordingly Embrace uncertainty as a key element of breakthrough innovation Adopt best practices for mitigating political threats Upgrade your organization's forecasting capabilities to gain a competitive edge Detect and neutralize cyberattacks originating inside your company This collection of articles includes "Managing Risks: A New Framework," by Robert S. Kaplan and Anette Mikes; "How to Build Risk into Your Business Model," by Karan Girotra and Serguei Netessine; "The Six Mistakes Executives Make in Risk Management," by Nassim N. Taleb, Daniel G. Goldstein, and Mark W. Spitznagel; "From Superstorms to Factory Fires: Managing Unpredictable Supply-Chain Disruptions," by David Simchi-Levi, William Schmidt, and Yehua Wei; "Is It Real? Can We Win? Is It Worth Doing?: Managing Risk and Reward in an Innovation Portfolio," by George S. Day; “Superforecasting: How to Upgrade Your Company's Judgment," by Paul J. H. Schoemaker and Philip E. Tetlock; "Managing 21st-Century Political Risk," by Condoleezza Rice and Amy Zegart; "How to Scandal-Proof Your Company," by Paul Healy and George Serafeim; "Beating the Odds When You Launch a New Venture," by Clark Gilbert and Matthew Eyring; "The Danger from Within," by David M. Upton and Sadie Creese; and "Future-Proof Your Climate Strategy," by Joseph E. Aldy and Gianfranco Gianfrate.

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Book SynopsisOccupational Health and Safety has been a growth industry for several decades and has moved beyond the realm of the human resource department and workers' compensation claims. However, the methodologies utilized and taught within the profession have changed little since the 1930s. The industry continues to operate in a comfort zone and, as such, has reached an improvement plateau. This important book examines seven of these antiquated comfort zones from their conceptions to implementation and explores why they fail to achieve the desired results and what alternatives are available. Seven Bad Habits of Safety Management: Examining Systemic Failure delivers seven focused chapters outlining the comfort zones they create and their impacts on new initiatives. Each critically analyses common safety practices exploring where they came from, why they fail, and a few alternatives being discussed around the world. Case studies underpin learning that will allow the reader to reTable of Contents1. Bad Habit 1 - Plan-Do-Check-Act - The Activity Trap. 2. Bad Habit 2 - Safety Management Systems - Rules vs Risk. 3. Bad Habit 3 - Lagging Indicators - Not Everything That Can Be Counted Counts!. 4. Bad Habit 4 - Leading Indicators - Not Everything That Counts Can Be Counted. 5. Bad Habit 5 - Behaviour Based Safety - The Problem Child. 6. Bad Habit 6 - Joint Health and Safety Committees - Put Down the Donuts There’s Work to Do. 7. Bad Habit 7 - Safety Culture - If You Can’t Speak The Language Blame The Culture.

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Book SynopsisThe âœbibleâ of risk managementâfully updated for an investing landscape dramatically altered by social and technological upheavalsWhen it was first published in 2005, The Essentials of Risk Management became an instant classic in risk management. Now, the authors provide a comprehensively updated and revised edition to help you succeed in a world rocked by unprecedented changes.Combining academic research with real-world applications, this bestselling guide provides the expert insights that has made it so popular for so many years, covering the most effective ways to measure and transfer credit risk, increase risk-management transparency, and implement an organization-wide enterprise risk management approach. In addition, it covers a wide range of new issues, including: Fallout from the COVID pandemic New emerging risks associated with digital finance The effect of climate change on risk management Game-changing new tec

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Book SynopsisDavid Hillson is a thought-leader and expert practitioner in risk management, based in Petersfield, UK. He has advised major organizations, governments and charities in 60 countries on creating value from risk using applied risk-based thinking. He has written 13 major books on risk and has developed significant innovations that are now widely accepted as best practice. He has received many awards for his ground-breaking work in risk management. He regularly shares his work through the RiskDoctorVideo YouTube channel.Trade Review"An opportunity to learn from the risk world's best thinkers in one easy to navigate handbook. This will become your go to guide for pivotal risk responses, with useful pointers on next steps and emerging risk issues." * Clare Ball, Director of Internal Audit, Risk Assurance & Insurance, Babcock International Group, UK *"A collection of expert insights on various dimensions of risk, written in straightforward language that articulates in practical terms key nuances of risk management for decision-making. A must-read for anyone seeking to better understand risk and the management thereof." * Daniel Udochi, Head of Risk, du, United Arab Emirates *"The Risk Management Handbook brings together an impressive line-up of global thought leaders with a wide array of experience and expertise, providing readers with a practical handbook that covers all contemporary topics, and more, within the risk management field. This is a valuable resource for me as an educator when teaching risk management, often to non-risk students. This book caters not only to those explicitly interested in risk and risk management, but those new to the field, who want to or need to learn about this discipline that is critical to successfully running an organisation. I look forward to using this new edition with my students!" * Dr Paula Sonja Karlsson-Brown, Senior Lecturer in Management, Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, UK *"A must-have resource, offering a relevant collection of expert contributions and practical insights on the latest evolution of the risk management discipline. It is structured in a logical manner, making it perfect for a deep dive on risk management or a quick refresher on a specific subject." * Francesca Schiezzari, Head of Risk Management, Leonardo Helicopters, Italy *"The Risk Management Handbook is an exceptional comprehensive guide on risk management topics and applications, full of important information for professionals, students and managers. This new edition has been updated with many recent and emergent risk issues, making it an important current source for all of us interested in risk." * Dr Terje Aven, Professor of Risk Science, University of Stavanger, Norway *"The Risk Management Handbook equips readers with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate the complexities of risk management. With its comprehensive coverage and timely insights, this book empowers readers to effectively manage risk in the ever-evolving business landscape. Whether you are seeking an in-depth understanding or are simply intrigued by the subject, this handbook offers a practical and thought-provoking approach to risk management." * Shai Davidov, Associate Professor of Management, Operations Management & Logistics Group, Edinburgh Business School, UK *Table of Contents Chapter - 00: Preface [Dr David Hillson]; Section - ONE: Dimensions of risk management; Chapter - 01: Introducing risk [Dr David Hillson]; Chapter - 02: Enterprise Risk Management [John Crawley and Emer McAneny]; Chapter - 03: Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG) Risk Management [Dr Sarah Gordon]; Chapter - 04: Operational risk management [Dr Ariane Chapelle]; Chapter - 05: Financial Risk Management [Clive Thompson]; Chapter - 06: Business Continuity Management [Ian Clark]; Chapter - 07: Reputational risk management [Arif Zaman]; Chapter - 08: Project, Programme and Portfolio Risk Management [Dr Dale Cooper]; Chapter - 09: Supply Chain Risk Management [Linda Conrad]; Chapter - 10: Cyber Risk Management [Alex Stezycki]; Chapter - 11: Legal Risk Management [Dr Sam De Silva]; Chapter - 12: Climate Change Risk Management [Martin Massey]; Chapter - 13: Political Risk Management [Robert McKellar]; Chapter - 14: Country Risk Management [Nicki Kons]; Chapter - 15: Stakeholder Risk Management [Dr Lynda Bourne]; Chapter - 16: Ethics in Risk Management [Giusi Meloni]; Chapter - 17: Risk Management in International Development Cooperation [Magda Stepanyan]; Section - TWO: CROSS-CUTTING DISCIPLINES; Chapter - 18: Risk Culture [Alex Hindson]; Chapter - 19: Risk-Based Decision Making [Keith Smith]; Chapter - 20: Risk Leadership in Complexity [Dr Richard Barber]; Chapter - 21: Resilience [Dr Erica Seville]; Chapter - 22: Communicating Uncertainty [Professor Veronica Bowman OBE]; Chapter - 23: Organisational Change Management and Risk [Dr Ruth Murray-Webster]; Chapter - Epilogue: The Future of Risk Management [Dr David Hillson]

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Book SynopsisCompliance has become key to our contemporary markets, societies, and modes of governance across a variety of public and private domains. While this has stimulated a rich body of empirical and practical expertise on compliance, thus far, there has been no comprehensive understanding of what compliance is or how it influences various fields and sectors. The academic knowledge of compliance has remained siloed along different disciplinary domains, regulatory and legal spheres, and mechanisms and interventions. This handbook bridges these divides to provide the first one-stop overview of what compliance is, how we can best study it, and the core mechanisms that shape it. Written by leading experts, chapters offer perspectives from across law, regulatory studies, management science, criminology, economics, sociology, and psychology. This volume is the definitive and comprehensive account of compliance.Trade Review'This Handbook is an indispensable resource for academics and practitioners interested in compliance and ethics. The book assembles an impressive array of leading experts who tackle critical issues from a variety of perspectives. It is essential reading for those interested in controlling organizational misconduct.' Jennifer Arlen, New York University School of Law, editor of The Research Handbook on Corporate Crime and Financial Misdealing'This Handbook is a gold mine for those serious about comprehending the complexities of compliance in building more effective governance and more decent, less dominating, societies.' John Braithwaite, RegNet, Australia National University, author of Responsive Regulation and Crime, Shame and Integration'It turns out there is a solid 'science of compliance,' and it is represented instructively in this thoroughgoing volume.' Robert Cialdini, Psychology and Marketing, Arizona State University, author of Influence and Pre-suasion'Students, scholars and policy makers have good reason to be grateful to van Rooij and Sokol for assembling in one place so much of what needs to be known about regulation. This rich panoply of paradigms and perspectives collects outstanding work with which to understand the persistent struggle to move beyond ceremonial compliance and actually align performance with legally mandated requirements.' Susan S. Silbey, Sociology and Anthropology, Sloan School of Management, MIT, author of The Common Place of Law'Utilizing a broad brush in thinking about compliance, van Rooij and Sokol have brought together an interdisciplinary who's who of thought leaders who tackle essential issues of conceptualization, operationalization and measurement, and the mechanisms that shape compliance.' Sally S. Simpson, Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland, author of Corporate Crime, Law, and Social Control'This sweeping book is an invaluable compendium of key insights gleaned from hundreds of studies on all aspects of compliance. Tapping into scholarship from a wide array of domains, the authors strip away disciplinary jargon and provide structure to enable readers of all backgrounds to learn how government and private-sector rules are established, monitored, and enforced.' Michael Toffel, Technology and Operations Management, Harvard Business SchoolTable of ContentsPart I. Compliance Concepts and Approaches; Part II. Deterrence and Incapacitation; Part III. Incentives; Part IV. Legitimacy and Social Norms; Part V. Capacity and Opportunity; Part VI. Compliance and Cognition; Part VII. Management and Organizational Processes; Part VIII. Measuring and Evaluating Compliance; Part IX. Analysis of Particular Fields.

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Book SynopsisWhy does regulation vary so dramatically from one area to another? Why are some risks regulated aggressively and others responded to only modestly? Is there any logic to the techniques we use in risk regulation? These key questions are explored in The Government of Risk. This book looks at a number of risk regulation regimes, considers the respects in which they differ, and examines how these differences can be justified.Analyzing regulation in terms of ''regimes'' allows us to see the rich, multi-dimensional nature of risk regulation. It exposes the thinness of society-wide analyses of risk controls and it offers a perspective that single case studies cannot reach. Regimes analysis breaks down the components of risk regulation systems and shows how they interact. It also shows how different parts of the same regime may be shaped by different factors and have to be explained and understood in quite different ways. The Government of Risk shows how such an approach is of high policy releTrade ReviewReview from previous edition Full of insights. The classification scheme set out in the book will serve anyone involved in practical institutional design well beyond the specific examples it presents. * Political Studies *The Government of Risk is a significant contribution to the exisiting literature on risk regulation... a first... step towards a satisfactory comparative analysis of risk regulation schemes. * West European Politics *Sweeping in the breadth of [its] academic scholarship... The Government of Risk [is] sure to have an enduring impact on the debate. * Public Law *The Government of Risk is an important book, and perhaps a major one, for several reasons... This volume both brings some of the best developed resources of political science and public administration studies to bear upon issues of risk, from which both the field of risk scholarship and political science can only benefit.... In grounding this cross-disciplinary framework clearly in theory, the book presents future researchers with an invaluable book. * PERRI 6 *Table of ContentsSECTION 1: INTRODUCING RISK REGULATION REGIME; SECTION 2: EXPANDING VARIATION IN RISK REGULATION REGIMES; SECTION 3: EXPLORING THE DYNAMICS OF RISK REGULATION REGIMES

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Book SynopsisSince the mid-1990s risk management has undergone a dramatic expansion in its reach and significance, being transformed from an aspect of management control to become a benchmark of good governance for banks, hospitals, schools, charities, and many other organizations. Numerous standards for risk management practice have been produced by a variety of transnational organizations. While these many designs and blueprints are accompanied by ideals of enterprise, value production, and good governance, it is argued that the rise of risk management has also coincided with an intensification of auditing and control processes. The legalization and bureacratization of organizational life has increased because risk management has created new demands for proof and evidence of action. In turn, these demands have generated new risks to reputation. In short, this important book traces the rise of the managerial concept of risk and the different logics and values which underpin it, showing that it hasTrade ReviewPower's book is illuminating and bringing in the foreground a highly relevant topic for today businesses and society. As a preliminary exploration of the ideas embodied by risk management understood as risk governance, the book is really worth reading even if we will be missing the flavor of field studies, because Power's aim was so broad and ideational. Anyway, this book may help debunk many ideas about risk and risk management, written by a talented management accountant and philosopher. * Laurent Magne, Society and Business Review *...getAbstract recommends this informed and informative analysis to risk management professionals and professors who will appreciate Powers depth of knowledge. * getAbsract *Table of Contents1. Organized Uncertainty: An Introduction ; 2. Turning Organizations Inside Out: The Rise of Internal Control ; 3. Standardizing Risk Management: Making Up Processes and People ; 4. Putting Categories to Work: The Invention of Operational Risk ; 5. Governing Reputation: The Outside Comes In ; 6. Making Risk Auditable: Legalization and Organization ; 7. Designing a World of Risk Management

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Book SynopsisChapter 1) Equity Derivatives The Fundamentals.- Chapter 2) Corporate Actions.- Chapter 3) Equity Valuation.- Chapter 4) Valuation of Equity Derivatives.- Chapter 5) Risk Management of Vanilla Equity Options.- Chapter 6) Volatility and Correlation.- Chapter 7) Barrier and binary Options.- Chapter 8) Correlation-Dependent Exotic Options.- Chapter 9) Equity Forwards and Futures.- Chapter 10) Equity Swaps.- Chapter 11) Investor Applications of Equity Options.- Chapter 12) Structured Equity Products.- Chapter 13) Traded Dividends.- Chapter 14) Trading Volatility.- Chapter 15) Trading Correlation. Table of Contents

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Book SynopsisSince the publication of the second edition in 2013, there has been an increasing interest in asset management globally, as evidenced by a series of international standards on asset management systems, to achieve excellence in asset management. This cannot be achieved without high-quality data and the tools for data interpretation. The importance of such requirements is widely recognized by industry. The third edition of this textbook focuses on tools for physical asset management decisions that are data driven. It also uses a theoretical foundation to the tools (mathematical models) that can be used to optimize a variety of key maintenance/replacement/reliability decisions. Problem sets with answers are provided at the end of each chapter. Also available is an extensive set of PowerPoint slides and a solutions manual upon request with qualified textbook adoptions.This new edition can be used in undergraduate or post-graduate courses on physical asset management.<Table of Contents1. Introduction. 2. Component Replacement Decisions.3. Inspection Decisions. 4. Capital Equipment Replacement Decisions. 5. Maintenance Resource Requirements. 6. The Role of Emerging Technologies in Physical Asset Management. Appendix 1: Statistics Primer.Appendix 2: Weibull Analysis.Appendix 3: Maximum Likelihood Estimator.Appendix 4: Markov Chains.Appendix 5: Knowledge Elicitation.Appendix 6: Time Value of Money: Discounted Cash Flow Analysis.Appendix 7: List of Applications of Asset Management Decision Optimization Models.Appendix 8: Ordinates of the Standard Normal Distribution.Appendix 9: Areas in the Tail of the Standard Normal Distribution.Appendix 10: Values of Gamma Function.Appendix 11: Median Ranks Table.Appendix 12: Five Percent Ranks Table.Appendix 13: Ninety-Five Percent Ranks Table.Appendix 14: Critical Values for the Kolmogorov–Smirnov Statistic (dα).Appendix 15: Answers to Problems.Index

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Book SynopsisThis is a book about the development of dependable, embedded software. It is for systems designers, implementers, and verifiers who are experienced in general embedded software development, but who are now facing the prospect of delivering a software-based system for a safety-critical application. It is aimed at those creating a product that must satisfy one or more of the international standards relating to safety-critical applications, including IEC 61508, ISO 26262, EN 50128, EN 50657, IEC 62304, or related standards.Of the first edition, Stephen Thomas, PE, Founder and Editor of FunctionalSafetyEngineer.com said, I highly recommend Mr. Hobbs' book. Table of ContentsPart 1: Background. 1. Introduction. 2. Terminology of Safety. 3. Safety Standards and Certification. 4. Representative Companies. Part 2: The Project. 5. Foundational Analyses. 6. Certified and Uncertified Components. Part 3: Design Patterns. 7. Architectural Balancing. 8. Error Detection and Handling. 9. Expecting the Unexpected. 10 Replication and Diversification. Part 4: Design Validation. 11. Markov Models. 12. The Fault Tree. 13. Software Failure Rates. 14. Semi-Formal Design Verification. 15. Formal Design Verification. Part 5: Coding. 16. Coding Guidelines. 17. Code Coverage Metrics. 18. Static Analysis. Part 6: Verification. 19. Integration Testing. 20. The Tool Chain. 21. Conclusion. Part 7: Appendices. A. Goal Structuring Notation. B. Bayesian Belief Networks. C .Calculating (2+3)+4. D. Notations.

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Book SynopsisThis companion to the bestselling Introduction to Health and Safety at Work will help you prepare for the written assessments on the NEBOSH National General Certificate in Occupational Health and Safety (2019 specification).It provides complete coverage of the syllabus in bite-sized chunks and will help you learn and memorise the most important areas, with links provided back to the main Introduction to Health and Safety at Work text to help you consolidate your learning.â Small and portable, making it ideal for use anywhere: at home, in the classroom or on the moveâ Includes specimen questions and answers based on recent examination papersâ Everything you need for productive revision in one handy reference sourceThis revision guide is written by an experienced lecturer and former Vice Chairman of NEBOSH, who has spent many years helping students become accredited by NEBOSH.Table of ContentsUnit NGC1 Management of Health and Safety 1.1 The moral, financial and legal reasons for health and safety management 1.2 Health and safety management systems and policy 1.3 Health and safety management of people and processes 1.4 Health and safety management of risk and controls 1.5 Health and safety monitoring and measurement Unit NGC2 Risk assessment 2.1 Physical and Psychological Health Hazards and Risk Control 2.2 Musculoskeletal health 2.3 Chemical and biological agents 2.4 General workplace issues 2.5 Work equipment 2.6 Fire 2.7 Electricity Useful Additional Construction Topics Specimen Answers to NEBOSH Examination Questions

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Book SynopsisThis book aims to take the reader through all aspects of fire safety and management in residential settings, from origin and ignition, risk assessment, protection and prevention, as well as comparing effective enforcement options from across all parts of the UK.Table of Contents1. Introduction 2. The development of fire safety legislation 3. Principles of fire 4. Fire safety risk assessment and fire protection in residential premises 5. Essentials of fire safety management in residential dwellings 6. Fire safety, the HHSRS and property licensing - law and practice 7. Fire risk and precautions for different types of housing 8. Management and regulation of blocks of flats and larger student accommodation developments 9.Future legal developments

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." -- Christine Kenneally - New York Times Book Review"Rarely is a book’s publication as well-timed as John Kay and Mervyn King’s Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers." -- Joseph C. Sternberg - Wall Street Journal"In this profound yet practical book, Kay and King admit the obvious—that in crucial domains, we do not, will not, cannot know what is going on—and show, nevertheless, how to retain the ability to function." -- Paul Romer, Nobel laureate"Many books will make a reader better informed or smarter. This is one of very few that will make a reader much wiser. You will live differently and better after you grasp Kay and King’s seminal lessons about radical uncertainty." -- Lawrence H. Summers, US Treasury Secretary 1999-2001, and Charles W. Eliot University Professor at Harvard University"John Kay and Mervyn King want more people to grasp the old distinction between risk and uncertainty forgotten by a later generation of economists. Too many of life’s uncertainties are presented to us as if they are calculable risks, especially in the realm of finance. We should focus on the truly calculable risks, they argue, and stop pretending we can predict situations of radical uncertainty." -- Niall Ferguson, Milbank Family Senior Fellow, the Hoover Institution, Stanford

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Book SynopsisThis new volume explores the crisis in transatlantic relations and analyses the role of NATO following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Table of Contents1. NATO, Risk and Security Management: From Kosovo to Khandahar and Beyond 2. Understanding Risk 3. From Security Community to Risk Community: NATO’s Evolution 4. Managing Strategic Risk in the Near Abroad: Kosovo 5. Managing Strategic Risk in Abroad: Afghanistan 6. Risk Managed or Manufactured: Iraq and the Precautionary Principle 7. Transatlantic Insecurity and the Future of NATO

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Book SynopsisTable of ContentsForeword, Prólogo, Organization/Organización, Sponsors/Patrocinadores, Session 1. Critical infrastructure management, Session 2. Risk analysis, Session 3. Dam safety, Session 4. Dam security

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Book SynopsisAdvances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management contains the papers presented at the 20th European Safety and Reliability (ESREL 2011) annual conference in Troyes, France, in September 2011. The books covers a wide range of topics, including: Accident and Incident Investigation; Bayesian methods; Crisis and Emergency Management; Decision Making under Risk; Dynamic Reliability; Fault Diagnosis, Prognosis and System Health Management; Fault Tolerant Control and Systems; Human Factors and Human Reliability; Maintenance Modelling and Optimisation; Mathematical Methods in Reliability and Safety; Occupational Safety; Quantitative Risk Assessment; Reliability and Safety Data Collection and Analysis; Risk and Hazard Analysis; Risk Governance; Risk Management; Safety Culture and Risk Perception; Structural Reliability and Design Codes; System Reliability Analysis; Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis.Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management will be of Table of ContentsPreface, Conference organization, Acknowledgements, Introduction, Thematic areas, Industrial sectors, Back Cover

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Book SynopsisInvaluable insights on trading today's futures market The CME Risk Management Handbook provides an accessible overview of the futures market in today's electronic world of trading. Page by page, it outlines the various CME products currently available and explains how those products can be used to manage risk.Table of ContentsForeword by Leo Melamed. Prologue by Terry Duffy. Acknowledgments. Introduction by Craig S. Donohue. Chapter 1 Futures Market Fundamentals. What Is a Futures Contract? Overview of Popular Financial Futures Contracts. Anatomy of a Futures Transaction. Conclusion. Notes. Chapter 2 Order Entry and Execution Methodologies. Open Outcry or Pit Trading. Introduction of the CME Globex Platform. Trade Matching Algorithms. About Options Markets. Ex-Pit Trading. Conclusion. Notes. Chapter 3 Role of the Clearinghouse. Financial Safeguards. Financial Surveillance. Default by a Clearing Member. Resources Backing CME Group Clearing System. Customer Protection. Disaster Recovery and Business Continuity. Rule Enforcement. Financial and Regulatory Information Sharing. Conclusion. Chapter 4 Currency Futures: The First Financial Futures. Evolution of Foreign Exchange Marketplace. Over-the-Counter Currency Trading Vehicles. Exchange-Traded Currency Futures and Options. Foreign Exchange Market Growth and Trends. Conclusion. Notes. Chapter 5 Stock Index Futures: The First Financial Futures. Mechanics of Stock Index Futures. E-Minis versus Exchange-Traded-Funds. Pricing Stock Index Futures. Spreading Stock Index Futures. Hedging with Stock Index Futures. Portable Alpha Strategies. Conclusion. Notes. Chapter 6 Eurodollar Futures: Interest Rate Market Building Blocks. Eurodollar Futures Market. Speculating on Shape of Yield Curve. Term Treasury/Eurodollar (TED) Spreads with Futures and Options. Interest Rate Swap Market. Growing Up Together. Pricing Relationship. Hedging Techniques. Conclusion. Technical Appendix: Complications and Shortcuts for Pricing and Hedging Swaps. Notes. Chapter 7 Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures. Coupon-Bearing Treasury Securities. Treasury Futures Delivery Practices. Measuring Risk of Coupon-Bearing Securities. Risk Management with Treasury Futures. Macro Hedging with Treasury Futures. Trading the Yield Curve with Treasury Futures. Conclusion. Notes. Chapter 8 Commodities: Backbone of the Futures Industry. What Are Commodities? Grain Markets. Livestock Markets. Energy Products. Precious Metals. The Forward Curve. Intermarket Commodity Spreading. ClearPort Over-the-Counter Clearing Facility. Conclusion. Appendix: Major Commodity Market Specifications. Chapter 9 Alternative Investment Market fundamentals. Weather. Residential Housing Futures. Economic Indicators. Conclusion. Notes. Chapter 10 Fundamental Market Indicators. Why These Indicators? Trading Volumes. Volatility: Daily Net Change. Volitility: Daily High-Low Range. Conclusions. Appendix: Economic Indicator Descriptions. Notes. Chapter 11 Technical Analysis Primer. Why Technical Analysis? Interpreting Charts. Elliot Wave Theory. Intraday Trading Techniques. Trend-Following Systems. Conclusion. Chapter 12 Fundamentals of Option Markets. What is an Option? Mathematical Option Pricing Models. Historic and Implied Volatilities. Measuring Option Performance. Conclusion. Chapter 13 Option Trading Strategies. Option Spreads. Horizontal Spreads. Diagonal Spreads. Comparing Verticals, Horizontals, and Diagonals. Weighted Spreads. Volatility-Driven Strategies. Specialty Option Strategies. Matching Strategy and Forecast. Conclusion. Chapter 14 Hedging with Options. Baseline Futures Hedge. Buying Protection with Puts. Yield Enhancement with Calls. In- and Out-of-the-Money Options. Matching Strategy with Forecast. Collar Strategy. Delta-Neutral Hedge. Conclusion. About the Authors and Contributors. Index.

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Book SynopsisA new book to help senior executives and boards get smart about risk management The ability of businesses to survive and thrive often requires unconventional thinking and calculated risk taking. The key is to make the right decisions-even under the most risky, uncertain, and turbulent conditions.Trade Review"The authors propose a more holistic approach of "risk intelligence," in which leaders acknowledge and prepare for a wide range of potential threats. The authors isolate ten essential risk intelligence skills-such as abandoning familiar assumptions, anticipating causes of failure, and sustaining operational discipline-and provide in-depth guidelines for how executives and board members can hone these skills. They understand that there is no reward without risk - but only if the risks are properly managed." (BizEd, July/August 2010)Table of ContentsAcknowledgments xiii Foreword xv Preface xix Introduction xxi Conventional Risk Management xxi A Risk Intelligent Approach xxii The Approach of This Book xxiii The Structure of This Book xxv Part I When Risks Become Brutal Realities 1 Chapter 1 To Survive and Thrive: A Matter of Judgment 3 The Revolving Door to the Corner Office 4 Barriers to Board Effectiveness 8 The Imperatives of the Enterprise 11 Chapter 2 Conventional Risk Management Has Failed 17 What Goes Up Must Come Down 19 The Evolution of Finance, Market, and Risk Management Theory 24 Taking a (Random) Walk 26 Chapter 3 An Unconventional Approach to Risk Management 33 Calculated Risk Taking Creates Value 35 Calculated Risk Taking and Risk Aversion 44 Risk Intelligence: An Unconventional Approach 46 Part II Ten Essential Risk Intelligence Skills 51 Chapter 4 Check Your Assumptions at the Door 53 Fatal Flaw #1: Failing to Challenge Your Assumptions 55 Risk Intelligence Skill #1: Check Your Assumptions at the Door 61 Chapter 5 Maintain Constant Vigilance 73 Fatal Flaw #2: Lack of Vigilance 73 Risk Intelligence Skill #2: Maintain Constant Vigilance 83 Chapter 6 Factor in Velocity and Momentum 93 Fatal Flaw # 3: Failure to Consider Velocity and Momentum 95 Risk Intelligence Skill #3: Factor in Velocity and Momentum 101 Chapter 7 Manage the Key Connections 111 Fatal Flaw #4: Failure to Make Key Connections and Manage Complexity 112 Risk Intelligence Skill #4: Manage Your Key Connections 117 Chapter 8 Anticipate Causes of Failure 131 Fatal Flaw #5: Failure to Anticipate Failure 132 Risk Intelligence Skill #5: Anticipate Causes of Failure 137 Chapter 9 Verify Sources and Corroborate Information 149 Fatal Flaw #6: Failure to Verify Sources and Corroborate Information 150 Risk Intelligence Skill # 6: Verify Sources and Corroborate Information 158 Chapter 10 Maintain a Margin of Safety 165 Fatal Flaw #7: Failing to Maintain a Margin of Safety 166 Risk Intelligence Skill #7: Maintain a Margin of Safety 170 Chapter 11 Set Your Enterprise Time Horizons 183 Fatal Flaw #8: Short-Termism 184 Risk Intelligence Skill #8: Set Your Enterprise Time Horizons 190 Chapter 12 Take Enough of the Right Risks 203 Fatal Flaw #9: Failure to Take Enough of the Right Risks 204 Risk Intelligence Skill #9: Taking Enough of the Right Risks 208 Chapter 13 Sustain Operational Discipline 219 Case Example: The U.S. Submarine Force 220 Fatal Flaw #10: Lack of Operational Discipline 222 Risk Intelligence Skill #10: Develop and Sustain Operational Discipline 227 Part III Creating the Risk Intelligent Enterprise 235 Chapter 14 Risk Intelligence Is Free 237 A Closer Look at Costs 239 The Rewards of Risk Intelligence 253 Chapter 15 Risk Intelligent Governance 257 The Risk Intelligent Board 258 Committees of the Board and Risk Intelligence 271 Where Does Risk Oversight End and Risk Management Begin? 277 Chapter 16 Risk Intelligent Enterprise Management 281 ERM and Risk Intelligence 282 Developing Risk Intelligent Enterprise Management 284 Act as One 287 A New Way of Doing Business 291 Chapter 17 The Way Forward: Creating the Risk Intelligent Enterprise 293 The Benefits of Improved Risk Intelligence 294 What’s Your Enterprise Risk IQ? 295 Making the Transformation 298 Conclusion 304 Notes 307 About the Authors 325 Index 327

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Book SynopsisThis volume comprises the very essential elements of The Risk Management Handbook for Health Care Organizations, Fifth Edition , providing a complete and comprehensive overview of risk management in health care, including all the necessary foundations and applications to start a career or enhance current practice.Table of ContentsExhibits, Figures, Tables, and, Photos ix The Contributors xiii Preface xxvii About the Book xxix ONE Development of a Risk Management Program 1 Learning Objectives 1 Risk Management Program Development 3 Key Structural Elements of the Risk Management Program 4 Scope of the Risk Management Program 8 The Risk Management Process 13 Evolution of the Risk Management Program 21 Selecting an Appropriate Risk Management Program Structure 22 Assessing Areas of the Organization That Need Risk Management 23 Key Components for Getting Started 26 Writing a Risk Management Program Plan 27 Achieving Program Acceptance 27 TWO The Health Care Risk Management Professional 31 Learning Objectives 31 The Risk Manager’s Job: Functional Areas of Responsibility 33 Health Care Risk Management across a Spectrum of Settings 53 Required Skills for the Successful Health Care Risk Management Professional 76 Risk Management Ethics 77 A Profile of the Health Care Risk Management Professional 78 Education and Professional Recognition Programs 78 THREE Patient Safety and the Risk Management Professional 87 Learning Objectives 87 The Scope of Medical Errors 89 Seeking Solutions: What Are the Causes of Medical Errors? 91 FOUR Health Care Legal Concepts 115 Learning Objectives 115 Legal Issues Common to All Health Care Providers 116 Legal Issues Related to Specific Health Care Providers 134 FIVE Governance of the Health Care Organization 157 Learning Objectives 157 Essential Responsibilities of the Hospital Board 159 Basic Legal Duties of Health Care Trustees 160 Lessons from the Panel on the Nonprofit Sector 162 Federal Sentencing Guidelines for Organizations 165 The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 167 The Volunteer Protection Act of 1997 169 Risk Management and the Board 170 The Medical Staff, Risk Management, and the Board 175 SIX Early Warning Systems for the Identification of Organizational Risks 181 Learning Objectives 181 Early Identification of Exposure to Loss 182 Food and Drug Administration 206 Institute for Safe Medication Practices, United States Pharmacopeia, and National Coordinating Council for Medication Error Reporting and Prevention 208 Medical Event Reporting System—Transfusion Medicine 212 Intensive Care Unit Safety Reporting System 212 Pittsburgh Regional Healthcare Initiative 212 Other Voluntary Programs 212 Standardizing a Patient Safety Taxonomy: The National Quality Forum 213 Protecting Sensitive Information 213 SEVEN the Risk Management Professional and Medication Safety 219 Learning Objectives 219 Latent and Active Failures 220 Systems Thinking 221 Risk Management: A Prioritizing Approach 252 Eight Ethics in Patient Care 261 Learning Objectives 261 Ethical Principles and Moral Obligations 263 Research 263 Institutional Review Boards 266 Patient Self-Determination Act 275 “Do Not Resuscitate”: Withholding or Withdrawing Treatment 277 NINE Documentation and The Medical Record 287 Learning Objectives 287 Documentation 291 Record Retention 310 Release of Records 310 Ownership of Medical Records 311 Medical Record Audits 312 Documentation and Risk Management 313 Emerging Risk Exposures 320 The Risk Management Professional’s Role 321 TEN Statutes, Standards, and Regulations 327 Learning Objectives 327 Patient Care 328 Medicare Modernization Act 331 Medical Staff 332 Life Safety Code 350 Federal Health Insurance Laws and Regulations 354 Tort Reform 357 Policy and Procedure Manuals 359 Case Law 360 ELEVEN Basic Claims Administration 367 Learning Objectives 367 The Claims Environment 368 The Claims Process 369 The Risk Management Professional’s Responsibilities 371 Regulatory Reporting of Claims 378 TWELVE Introduction to Risk Financing 381 Learning Objectives 381 Risk Financing in the Context of the Risk Management Process 384 Risk Retention 384 THIRTEEN Insurance: Basic Principles and Coverages 395 Learning Objectives 395 Definition of Insurance 396 Specific Types of Insurance for the Health Care Industry 408 FOURTEEN Information Technologies and Risk Management 427 Learning Objectives 427 Risk Management Information Needs 430 Risk Management Information Systems 431 Using Information Systems to Generate Reports 432 Integrating Risk Management, Quality Assurance, and Patient Safety 433 Electronic Mail 434 Internet- and Web-Based Technology 435 Personal Health Record 435 Electronic Health Records and Systems 436 Clinical Information Systems and “Smart” Technologies 437 Infrastructure Technology 440 Point-of-Care Technology 442 Telemedicine 442 Appendix 14.1: IT Glossary for Risk Managers 447 FIFTEEN Risk Management Metrics 451 Learning Objectives 451 Benchmarking Defined 453 Claims 456 Measuring Change 459 Developing New Metrics 461 SIXTEEN Acreditation, Licensure, Certification, and Surveying Bodies 467 Learning Objectives 467 The Consumer Era of Health Care 468 What the Health Care Risk Management Professional Needs to Know 469 Mandatory Surveying Bodies 471 Voluntary Surveying Bodies 475 URAC 489 Appendix 16.1: Accreditation and Licensure Organizations, Surveying Bodies, and Government Agencies 501 SEVENTEEN Emergency Management 503 Learning Objectives 503 The Steps of Emergency Management 505 Prevention 506 Planning and Preparation 511 Implementation and Response 525 Recovery 526 Recommended Web Sites 528 EIGHTEEN Occupational Safety, Health, and Environmental Impairment 529 Learning Objectives 529 Administrative Procedure Act 530 Administrative Enforcement 532 Specific Occupational Safety and Health Issues 535 APPENDIX A A RISK MANAGEMENT PROGRAM (EXAMPLE) 543 APPENDIX B REQUEST FOR RECORDS form (EXAMPLE) 549 APPENDIX C A GUIDE TO MEDICAL TERMINOLOGY 551 GLOSSARY 565 INDEX 623

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Book SynopsisA practitioner's handbook that integrates knowledge, competencies, methodologies and applications across the discipline. Can improve the effectiveness of organizational and individual Risk Management practices by documenting and integrating best-practice concepts from a range of complementary disciplines.Table of ContentsPREFACE xiii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xv ABOUT SRMBOK xvii 1 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW 1 1.1 Why SRMBOK? 1 1.2 Where Do We Go from Here? 3 1.3 What is Security Risk Management? 4 1.4 How does SRM Relate to Risk Management? 11 1.5 Conclusion, 14 2 SECURITY RISK MANAGEMENT CONTEXT 15 2.1 The Changing Security Environment, 15 2.2 Changing Concepts in Security Risk Management, 16 2.3 Origins of Security and Risk Management, 18 2.4 Trends and Future Directions, 18 2.5 Globalization, Opportunity, and Volatility, 19 2.6 Transnational and Extrajurisdictional Risks, 20 2.7 Law, Regulatory Framework, and Ramifications for Management, 21 2.8 Diversification or Concentration? 22 2.9 Political Awareness, 23 2.10 Risk versus Reward, 24 2.11 Summary of Key Points, 24 3 SECURITY GOVERNANCE 27 3.1 Introduction, 27 3.2 What Is Security Governance? 28 3.3 Duty of Care, 28 3.4 Resilience, 30 3.5 Security Culture, 37 3.6 Governance Frameworks, 38 3.7 Incident Management and Reporting, 41 3.8 Summary of Key Points, 42 4 SRMBOK FRAMEWORK 43 4.1 SRMBOK Guiding Principles, 46 5 PRACTICE AREAS 53 5.1 Introduction, 53 5.2 Security Management, 56 5.3 Physical Security, 59 5.4 People Security, 63 5.5 ICT Security, 77 5.6 Information Security, 81 6 STRATEGIC KNOWLEDGE AREAS 97 6.1 Introduction, 97 6.2 Exposure, 105 6.3 Risk, 130 6.4 Resources, 166 6.5 Quality, 172 7 OPERATIONAL COMPETENCY AREAS 195 7.1 Business Integration, 195 7.2 Functional Design, 202 7.3 Implementation Management, 204 7.4 Assurance and Audit, 211 8 ACTIVITY AREAS 219 8.1 Introduction, 219 8.2 Intelligence, 224 8.3 Protective Security, 230 8.4 Response, 231 8.5 Recovery and Continuity, 242 8.6 Summary of Key Points, 253 9 SECURITY RISK MANAGEMENT ENABLERS 255 9.1 Introduction, 255 9.2 Summary of Key Points, 259 10 ASSET AREAS 261 10.1 What Is an Asset? 261 10.2 Key Asset Groups, 264 11 SRM INTEGRATION 269 11.1 SRM Integration with Enterprise Risk Management, 273 11.2 ERM Frameworks, 274 11.3 Implementing an Integrated ERM Program, 276 11.4 Summary of Key Points, 282 12 SRM LEXICON 285 12.1 Introduction, 285 12.2 Illustrations, 286 12.3 Notes to Readers, 289 12.4 Definitions, 290 13 SAMPLE TEMPLATES 339 13.1 Security Risk Register form (Example 1), 340 13.2 Security Risk Register form (Example 2), 340 13.3 Risk Treatment Schedule (Example 1), 341 13.4 Risk Treatment Schedule (Example 2), 341 13.5 Outline Security Plan, 342 13.6 Day-to-Day Operational Governance Registers, 343 13.7 Property Selection and Security Planning Checklist, 349 13.8 Sample Commitment Statement to Security and Risk Management, 361 13.9 Sample Bomb Threat Checklist, 362 13.10 Sample Bomb Threat Room Search Checklist, 364 13.11 Evaluation Criteria for Business Continuity and Organizational Resilience, 365 14 ABOUT THE LEAD AUTHORS 417 14.1 Julian Talbot, CPP, 417 14.2 Dr Miles Jakeman, 418 BIBLIOGRAPHY AND OTHER REFERENCES 419 INDEX 427

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Book SynopsisPraise for Enterprise Risk Management and COSO: A Guide for Directors, Executives, and Practitioners Enterprise Risk Management and COSO is a comprehensive reference book that presents core management of risk tools in a helpful and organized way. If you are an internal auditor who is interested in risk management, exploring this book is one of the best ways to gain an understanding of enterprise risk management issues. Naly de Carvalho, FSA Times This book represents a unique guide on how to manage many of the critical components that constitute an organization''s corporate defense program. Sean Lyons, Corporate Defense Management (CDM) professional This book provides a comprehensive analysis of enterprise risk management and is invaluable to anyone working in the risk management arena. It provides excellent information regarding the COSO framework, control components, control environment, and qTrade Review"Enterprise Risk Management and COSO, is a useful book for readers who are directly or indirectly involved in risk management. It is relevant for managers and practitioners alike as we constantly face a myriad of constraints to accomplish our work. In my opinion, the authors introduce topics in an innovative way that invites brainstorming and analytical thinking. Enterprise Risk Management is a comprehensive reference book that presents core management or risks in a helpful and organized way. If you are an internal auditor who is interested in risk management, exploring this book is one of the best ways to gain an understanding of enterprise risk management issues." (Financial Services Audit News, April 2010)Table of ContentsAbout the Contributors. Acknowledgments. Preface. SECTION I ORGANIZATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT. Chapter 1 An Introduction to Risk. Chapter 2 Key Tenets of Enterprise Risk Management. Chapter 3 Mitigating Operational Risks Through Strategic Thinking. Chapter 4 Mitigating Risk in Internal Investigations and Insurance Coverage. SECTION II QUANTITATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT. Chapter 5 Recognized Control Frameworks: COSO-IC and COSO-ERM. Chapter 6 Other Control Frameworks. Chapter 7 Qualitative Control Concepts. Chapter 8 Quantitative Control Relationships. Chapter 9 Excel Applications. Chapter 10 Interdependent Systems. Chapter 11 Documentation. Chapter 12 The Process for Assessing Internal Control. Chapter 13 Monitoring Internal Controls. Chapter 14 Accounting Policies and Procedures. Chapter 15 Business Process Applications. Chapter 16 General and Infrastructure Systems. Chapter 17 Trusted System Providers. Chapter 18 Reporting on Internal Control. Chapter 19 Review and Acceptance of Assessments. Glossary. Appendix: Internal Control Sections of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. Index.

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Book SynopsisEveryday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyze, predict, and prepare for the level of risk entailed by these decisions is, therefore, one of the most constant and vital skills needed for analysts, scientists and managers. Risk analysis can be defined as a systematic use of information to identify hazards, threats and opportunities, as well as their causes and consequences, and then express risk. In order to successfully develop such a systematic use of information, those analyzing the risk need to understand the fundamental concepts of risk analysis and be proficient in a variety of methods and techniques. Risk Analysis adopts a practical, predictive approach and guides the reader through a number of applications. Risk Analysis: Provides an accessible and concise guide to performing risk analysis in a wide variety of fields, with minimal prior knowledge required. Adopts a broad peTrade Review"This book provides accessible and concise guidance to the process of planning, execution and use of risk analysis in the context of risk management, with minimal prior knowledge required."(Journal of Applied Statistics, August 2009) "The author has been successful in presenting the subject of risk analysis effectively. The reviewer would like to recommend this book to all those who would like to know about risk analysis and how it can be performed in practical situations." (International Journal of Performability Engineering, January 2009) Table of ContentsPreface. Part I: Theory and methods. 1 What is a risk analysis? 1.1 Why risk analysis?. 1.2 Risk management. 1.2.1 Decision-making under uncertainty. 1.3 Examples: decision situations. 1.3.1 Risk analysis for a tunnel. 1.3.2 Risk analysis for an offshore installation. 1.3.3 Risk analysis related to a cash depot. 2 What is risk? 2.1 Vulnerability. 2.2 How to describe risk quantitatively. 2.2.1 Description of risk in a financial context. 2.2.2 Description of risk in a safety context. 3 The risk analysis process: planning. 3.1 Problem definition. 3.2 Selection of analysis method. 3.2.1 Checklist-based approach. 3.2.2 Risk-based approach. 4 The risk analysis process: risk assessment. 4.1 Identification of initiating events. 4.2 Cause analysis. 4.3 Consequence analysis. 4.4 Probabilities and uncertainties. 4.5 Risk picture: Risk presentation. 4.5.1 Sensitivity and robustness analyses. 4.5.2 Risk evaluation. 5 The risk analysis process: risk treatment. 5.1 Comparisons of alternatives. 5.1.1 How to assess measures? 5.2 Management review and judgement. 6 Risk analysis methods. 6.1 Coarse risk analysis. 6.2 Job safety analysis. 6.3 Failure modes and effects analysis. 6.3.1 Strengths and weaknesses of an FMEA. 6.4 Hazard and operability studies. 6.5 SWIFT. 6.6 Fault tree analysis. 6.6.1 Qualitative analysis. 6.6.2 Quantitative analysis. 6.7 Event tree analysis. 6.7.1 Barrier block diagrams. 6.8 Bayesian networks. 6.9 Monte Carlo simulation. Part II Examples of applications. 7 Safety measures for a road tunnel. 7.1 Planning. 7.1.1 Problem definition. 7.1.2 Selection of analysis method. 7.2 Risk assessment. 7.2.1 Identification of initiating events. 7.2.2 Cause analysis. 7.2.3 Consequence analysis. 7.2.4 Risk picture. 7.3 Risk treatment. 7.3.1 Comparison of alternatives. 7.3.2 Management review and decision. 8 Risk analysis process for an offshore installation. 8.1 Planning. 8.1.1 Problem definition. 8.1.2 Selection of analysis method. 8.2 Risk analysis. 8.2.1 Hazard identification. 8.2.2 Cause analysis. 8.2.3 Consequence analysis. 8.3 Risk picture and comparison of alternatives. 8.4 Management review and judgement. 9 Production assurance. 9.1 Planning. 9.2 Risk analysis. 9.2.1 Identification of failures. 9.2.2 Cause analysis. 9.2.3 Consequence analysis. 9.3 Risk picture and comparison of alternatives. 9.4 Management review and judgement. Decision. 10 Risk analysis process for a cash depot. 10.1 Planning. 10.1.1 Problem definition. 10.1.2 Selection of analysis method. 10.2 Risk analysis. 10.2.1 Identification of hazards and threats. 10.2.2 Cause analysis. 10.2.3 Consequence analysis. 10.3 Risk picture. 10.4 Risk-reducing measures. 10.4.1 Relocation of the NOKAS facility. 10.4.2 Erection of a wall. 10.5 Management review and judgment. Decision. 10.6 Discussion. 11 Risk analysis process for municipalities. 11.1 Planning . 11.1.1 Problem definition. 11.1.2 Selection of analysis method. 11.2 Risk assessment. 11.2.1 Hazard and threat identification. 11.2.2 Cause and consequence analysis. Risk picture. 11.3 Risk treatment. 12 Risk analysis process for the entire enterprise. 12.1 Planning. 12.1.1 Problem definition. 12.1.2 Selection of analysis method. 12.2 Risk analysis. 12.2.1 Price risk. 12.2.2 Operational risk. 12.2.3 Health, Environment and Safety (HES). 12.2.4 Reputation risk. 12.3 Overall risk picture. 12.4 Risk treatment. 13 Discussion. 13.1 Risk analysis as a decision support tool. 13.2 Risk is more than the calculated probabilities and expected values. 13.3 Risk analysis has both strengths and weaknesses. 13.3.1 Precision of a risk analysis: uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. 13.3.2 Terminology. 13.3.3 Risk acceptance criteria (tolerability limits). 13.4 Reflection on approaches, methods and results. 13.5 Limitations of the causal chain approach. 13.6 Risk perspectives. 13.7 Scientific basis. 13.8 The implications of the limitations of risk assessment. 13.9 Critical systems and activities. 13.10 Conclusions. A Probability calculus and statistics. A.1 The meaning of a probability. A.2 Probability calculus. A.3 Probability distributions: expected value. A.3.1 Binomial distribution. A.4 Statistics (Bayesian statistics). B Introduction to reliability analysis. B.1 Reliability of systems composed of components. B.2 Production system. B.3 Safety system. C Approach for selecting risk analysis methods. C.1 Expected consequences. C.2 Uncertainty factors. C.3 Frame conditions. C.4 Selection of a specific method. D Terminology. D.1 Risk management: relationships between key terms. Bibliography. Index.

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Book SynopsisThis authoritative handbook illustrates practical implementation of simulation techniques in the banking and financial industries through use of real-world, time-sensitive applications.Table of ContentsList of Figures x List of Tables xiv Preface xx 1 An Introduction to Excel VBA 1 1.1 How to start Excel VBA 1 1.2 VBA Programming Fundamentals 3 1.3 Linking VBA to C++ 14 1.5 Random Number Generation 19 1.6 List of functions defined in the book 22 2 Background 27 2.1 A brief review of Martingales and Itô’s calculus 28 2.2 Volatility 39 2.3 Mark to Market and Calibration 41 2.4 Variance Reduction Techniques 43 3 Structured Products 55 3.1 When is simulation unnecessary? 55 3.2 Simulation of Black-Scholes model and European Options 56 3.3 American Options 61 3.4 Range Accrual Notes 69 3.5 FX accumulator: The case of Citic Pacific LTD 73 3.6 Life Insurance Contracts 80 3.7 Multi-asset Instruments 83 4 Volatility Modeling 93 4.1 Local Volatility Models: Simulation and Binomial tree 94 4.2 The Heston Stochastic Volatility Model 104 4.3 Simulation of Exotic Option Prices under Heston Model 110 4.4 The GARCH Option Pricing Model 121 4.5 Jump-Diffusion Model 127 5 Fixed-Income Derivatives I: Short-Rate Models 137 5.1 Yield Curve Building 138 5.2 The Hull-White Model 150 5.3 Pricing Interest Rate Products Using The Direction Simulation Approach 156 5.4 Pricing Interest Rate Products Using The Trinomial Tree Approach 161 6 Fixed-Income Derivatives II: LIBOR Market Models 169 6.1 LIBOR Market Models 171 6.2 Calibration to Caps and Swaptions 177 6.3 Simulation Across Different Forward Measures 186 6.4 Bermudan Swaptions in a Three-Factor Model 194 6.5 Epilogue 196 7 Credit Derivatives and Counterparty Credit Risk 199 7.1 Structural Models of Credit Risk 200 7.2 The Vasicek Single-Factor Model 203 7.3 Copula Approach to Credit Derivative Pricing 212 7.4 Counterparty credit risk 223 8 Value-at-Risk and Related Risk Measures 237 8.1 Value-at-Risk 237 8.2 Parametric VaR 238 8.3 Delta-normal Approximation 245 8.4 Delta-Gamma Approximation 247 8.5 VaR Simulation Methods 249 8.6 VaR-related Risk Measures 258 8.7 VaR Back-testing 264 9 The Greeks 267 9.1 Black-Scholes Greeks 269 9.2 Greeks in A Binomial Tree 271 9.3 Finite Difference Approximation 272 9.4 Likelihood Ratio Method 276 9.5 Pathwise Derivative Estimates 279 9.6 Greek Calculation with Discontinuous Payoffs 289 10 Appendix 295 References 315 Subject Index 319 Author Index 323

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Book SynopsisFinancial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk.Table of ContentsPreface xiii Acknowledgments xv Abbreviations xvii Notation xix 1 Financial markets, prices and risk 1 1.1 Prices, returns and stock indices 2 1.1.1 Stock indices 2 1.1.2 Prices and returns 2 1.2 S&P 500 returns 5 1.2.1 S&P 500 statistics 6 1.2.2 S&P 500 statistics in R and Matlab 7 1.3 The stylized facts of financial returns 9 1.4 Volatility 9 1.4.1 Volatility clusters 11 1.4.2 Volatility clusters and the ACF 12 1.5 Nonnormality and fat tails 14 1.6 Identification of fat tails 16 1.6.1 Statistical tests for fat tails 16 1.6.2 Graphical methods for fat tail analysis 17 1.6.3 Implications of fat tails in finance 20 1.7 Nonlinear dependence 21 1.7.1 Sample evidence of nonlinear dependence 22 1.7.2 Exceedance correlations 23 1.8 Copulas 25 1.8.1 The Gaussian copula 25 1.8.2 The theory of copulas 25 1.8.3 An application of copulas 27 1.8.4 Some challenges in using copulas 28 1.9 Summary 29 2 Univariate volatility modeling 31 2.1 Modeling volatility 31 2.2 Simple volatility models 32 2.2.1 Moving average models 32 2.2.2 EWMA model 33 2.3 GARCH and conditional volatility 35 2.3.1 ARCH 36 2.3.2 GARCH 38 2.3.3 The ‘‘memory’’ of a GARCH model 39 2.3.4 Normal GARCH 40 2.3.5 Student-t GARCH 40 2.3.6 (G)ARCH in mean 41 2.4 Maximum likelihood estimation of volatility models 41 2.4.1 The ARCH(1) likelihood function 42 2.4.2 The GARCH(1,1) likelihood function 42 2.4.3 On the importance of σ1 43 2.4.4 Issues in estimation 43 2.5 Diagnosing volatility models 44 2.5.1 Likelihood ratio tests and parameter significance 44 2.5.2 Analysis of model residuals 45 2.5.3 Statistical goodness-of-fit measures 45 2.6 Application of ARCH and GARCH 46 2.6.1 Estimation results 46 2.6.2 Likelihood ratio tests 47 2.6.3 Residual analysis 47 2.6.4 Graphical analysis 48 2.6.5 Implementation 48 2.7 Other GARCH-type models 51 2.7.1 Leverage effects and asymmetry 51 2.7.2 Power models 52 2.7.3 APARCH 52 2.7.4 Application of APARCH models 52 2.7.5 Estimation of APARCH 53 2.8 Alternative volatility models 54 2.8.1 Implied volatility 54 2.8.2 Realized volatility 55 2.8.3 Stochastic volatility 55 2.9 Summary 56 3 Multivariate volatility models 57 3.1 Multivariate volatility forecasting 57 3.1.1 Application 58 3.2 EWMA 59 3.3 Orthogonal GARCH 62 3.3.1 Orthogonalizing covariance 62 3.3.2 Implementation 62 3.3.3 Large-scale implementations 63 3.4 CCC and DCC models 63 3.4.1 Constant conditional correlations (CCC) 64 3.4.2 Dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) 64 3.4.3 Implementation 65 3.5 Estimation comparison 65 3.6 Multivariate extensions of GARCH 67 3.6.1 Numerical problems 69 3.6.2 The BEKK model 69 3.7 Summary 70 4 Risk measures 73 4.1 Defining and measuring risk 73 4.2 Volatility 75 4.3 Value-at-risk 76 4.3.1 Is VaR a negative or positive number? 77 4.3.2 The three steps in VaR calculations 78 4.3.3 Interpreting and analyzing VaR 78 4.3.4 VaR and normality 79 4.3.5 Sign of VaR 79 4.4 Issues in applying VaR 80 4.4.1 VaR is only a quantile 80 4.4.2 Coherence 81 4.4.3 Does VaR really violate subadditivity? 83 4.4.4 Manipulating VaR 84 4.5 Expected shortfall 85 4.6 Holding periods, scaling and the square root of time 89 4.6.1 Length of holding periods 89 4.6.2 Square-root-of-time scaling 90 4.7 Summary 90 5 Implementing risk forecasts 93 5.1 Application 93 5.2 Historical simulation 95 5.2.1 Expected shortfall estimation 97 5.2.2 Importance of window size 97 5.3 Risk measures and parametric methods 98 5.3.1 Deriving VaR 99 5.3.2 VaR when returns are normally distributed 101 5.3.3 VaR under the Student-t distribution 102 5.3.4 Expected shortfall under normality 103 5.4 What about expected returns? 104 5.5 VaR with time-dependent volatility 106 5.5.1 Moving average 106 5.5.2 EWMA 107 5.5.3 GARCH normal 108 5.5.4 Other GARCH models 109 5.6 Summary 109 6 Analytical value-at-risk for options and bonds 111 6.1 Bonds 112 6.1.1 Duration-normal VaR 112 6.1.2 Accuracy of duration-normal VaR 114 6.1.3 Convexity and VaR 114 6.2 Options 115 6.2.1 Implementation 117 6.2.2 Delta-normal VaR 119 6.2.3 Delta and gamma 120 6.3 Summary 120 7 Simulation methods for VaR for options and bonds 121 7.1 Pseudo random number generators 122 7.1.1 Linear congruental generators 122 7.1.2 Nonuniform RNGs and transformation methods 123 7.2 Simulation pricing 124 7.2.1 Bonds 125 7.2.2 Options 129 7.3 Simulation of VaR for one asset 132 7.3.1 Monte Carlo VaR with one basic asset 133 7.3.2 VaR of an option on a basic asset 134 7.3.3 Options and a stock 136 7.4 Simulation of portfolio VaR 137 7.4.1 Simulation of portfolio VaR for basic assets 137 7.4.2 Portfolio VaR for options 139 7.4.3 Richer versions 139 7.5 Issues in simulation estimation 140 7.5.1 The quality of the RNG 140 7.5.2 Number of simulations 140 7.6 Summary 142 8 Backtesting and stress testing 143 8.1 Backtesting 143 8.1.1 Market risk regulations 146 8.1.2 Estimation window length 146 8.1.3 Testing window length 147 8.1.4 Violation ratios 147 8.2 Backtesting the S&P 500 147 8.2.1 Analysis 150 8.3 Significance of backtests 153 8.3.1 Bernoulli coverage test 154 8.3.2 Testing the independence of violations 155 8.3.3 Testing VaR for the S&P 500 157 8.3.4 Joint test 159 8.3.5 Loss-function-based backtests 159 8.4 Expected shortfall backtesting 160 8.5 Problems with backtesting 162 8.6 Stress testing 163 8.6.1 Scenario analysis 163 8.6.2 Issues in scenario analysis 165 8.6.3 Scenario analysis and risk models 165 8.7 Summary 166 9 Extreme value theory 167 9.1 Extreme value theory 168 9.1.1 Types of tails 168 9.1.2 Generalized extreme value distribution 169 9.2 Asset returns and fat tails 170 9.3 Applying EVT 172 9.3.1 Generalized Pareto distribution 172 9.3.2 Hill method 173 9.3.3 Finding the threshold 174 9.3.4 Application to the S&P 500 index 175 9.4 Aggregation and convolution 176 9.5 Time dependence 179 9.5.1 Extremal index 179 9.5.2 Dependence in ARCH 180 9.5.3 When does dependence matter? 180 9.6 Summary 181 10 Endogenous risk 183 10.1 The Millennium Bridge 184 10.2 Implications for financial risk management 184 10.2.1 The 2007–2010 crisis 185 10.3 Endogenous market prices 188 10.4 Dual role of prices 190 10.4.1 Dynamic trading strategies 191 10.4.2 Delta hedging 192 10.4.3 Simulation of feedback 194 10.4.4 Endogenous risk and the 1987 crash 195 10.5 Summary 195 Appendices A Financial time series 197 A.1 Random variables and probability density functions 197 A.1.1 Distributions and densities 197 A.1.2 Quantiles 198 A.1.3 The normal distribution 198 A.1.4 Joint distributions 200 A.1.5 Multivariate normal distribution 200 A.1.6 Conditional distribution 200 A.1.7 Independence 201 A.2 Expectations and variance 201 A.2.1 Properties of expectation and variance 202 A.2.2 Covariance and independence 203 A.3 Higher order moments 203 A.3.1 Skewness and kurtosis 204 A.4 Examples of distributions 206 A.4.1 Chi-squared (χ2) 206 A.4.2 Student-t 206 A.4.3 Bernoulli and binomial distributions 208 A.5 Basic time series concepts 208 A.5.1 Autocovariances and autocorrelations 209 A.5.2 Stationarity 209 A.5.3 White noise 210 A.6 Simple time series models 210 A.6.1 The moving average model 210 A.6.2 The autoregressive model 211 A.6.3 ARMA model 212 A.6.4 Random walk 212 A.7 Statistical hypothesis testing 212 A.7.1 Central limit theorem 213 A.7.2 p-values 213 A.7.3 Type 1 and type 2 errors and the power of the test 214 A.7.4 Testing for normality 214 A.7.5 Graphical methods: QQ plots 215 A.7.6 Testing for autocorrelation 215 A.7.7 Engle LM test for volatility clusters 216 B An introduction to R 217 B.1 Inputting data 217 B.2 Simple operations 219 B.2.1 Matrix computation 220 B.3 Distributions 222 B.3.1 Normality tests 223 B.4 Time series 224 B.5 Writing functions in R 225 B.5.1 Loops and repeats 226 B.6 Maximum likelihood estimation 228 B.7 Graphics 229 C An introduction to Matlab 231 C.1 Inputting data 231 C.2 Simple operations 233 C.2.1 Matrix algebra 234 C.3 Distributions 235 C.3.1 Normality tests 237 C.4 Time series 237 C.5 Basic programming and M-files 238 C.5.1 Loops 239 C.6 Maximum likelihood 242 C.7 Graphics 243 B Maximum likelihood 245 D.1 Likelihood functions 245 D.1.1 Normal likelihood functions 246 D.2 Optimizers 247 D.3 Issues in ML estimation 248 D.4 Information matrix 249 D.5 Properties of maximum likelihood estimators 250 D.6 Optimal testing procedures 250 D.6.1 Likelihood ratio test 251 D.6.2 Lagrange multiplier test 252 D.6.3 Wald test 253 Bibliography 255 Index 259

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Book SynopsisThe essential reference for financial risk management Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, the Financial Risk Manager Handbook is the core text for risk management training programs worldwide.Table of ContentsPreface. About the Author. About GARP. Introduction. PART ONE Foundations of Risk Management. CHAPTER 1 Risk Management. PART TWO Quantitative Analysis. CHAPTER 2 Fundamentals of Probability. CHAPTER 3 Fundamentals of Statistics. CHAPTER 4 Monte Carlo Methods. CHAPTER 5 Modeling Risk Factors. PART THREE Financial Markets and Products. CHAPTER 6 Bond Fundamentals. CHAPTER 7 Introduction to Derivatives. CHAPTER 8 Option Markets. CHAPTER 9 Fixed-Income Securities. CHAPTER 10 Fixed-Income Derivatives. CHAPTER 11 Equity, Currency, and Commodity Markets. PART FOUR Valuation and Risk Models. CHAPTER 12 Introduction to Risk Models. CHAPTER 13 Managing Linear Risk. CHAPTER 14 Nonlinear (Option) Risk Models. PART FIVE Market Risk Management. CHAPTER 15 Advanced Risk Models: Univariate. CHAPTER 16 Advanced Risk Models: Multivariate. CHAPTER 17 Managing Volatility Risk. CHAPTER 18 Mortgage-Backed Securities Risk. PART SIX Credit Risk Management. CHAPTER 19 Introduction to Credit Risk. CHAPTER 20 Measuring Actuarial Default Risk. CHAPTER 21 Measuring Default Risk from Market Prices. CHAPTER 22 Credit Exposure. CHAPTER 23 Credit Derivatives and Structured Products. CHAPTER 24 Managing Credit Risk. PART SEVEN Operational and Integrated Risk Management. CHAPTER 25 Operational Risk. CHAPTER 26 Liquidity Risk. CHAPTER 27 Firmwide Risk Management. CHAPTER 28 The Basel Accord. PART EIGHT Investment Risk Management. CHAPTER 29 Portfolio Risk Management. CHAPTER 30 Hedge Fund Risk Management. Index.

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Book SynopsisHigh-level guidance for implementing enterprise risk management in any organization A Practical Guide to Risk Management shows organizations how to implement an effective ERM solution, starting with senior management and risk and compliance professionals working together to categorize and assess risks throughout the enterprise. Detailed guidance is provided on the key risk categories, including financial, operational, reputational, and strategic areas, along with practical tips on how to handle risks that overlap across categories. Provides high-level guidance on how to implement enterprise risk management across any organization Includes discussion of the latest trends and best practices Features the role of IT in ERM and the tools that are available in both assessment and on-going compliance Discusses the key challenges that need to be overcome for a successful ERM initiative Walking readers through the creation of ERM aTable of ContentsPreface xi Chapter 1: Overview of Enterprise Risk Management 1 ERM Introduction 1 Guidance: History and Relationship 3 Organization View 5 ERM Today 7 Increased Pressure to Manage Risk 9 Additional evidence 10 Perceived Barriers to Risk Management 11 Building the Business Case for ERM: Value and Benefi ts 11 Keys to Success 13 Summary 15 Notes 16 Chapter 2: Corporate Governance and Roles and Responsibilities 17 Board Behavior 18 Corporate Culture 19 Roles and Responsibilities 20 Summary 23 Chapter 3: ERM Defined 25 Definitions and Concepts 28 Risk Categories 30 Internal Environment 31 Summary 34 note 34 Chapter 4: The ERM Process Step by Step 35 Step 1 Strategy and Objective Definition 36 Step 2 Event Identification 38 Step 3 Risk Assessment 40 Step 4 Risk Response 41 Step 5 Communication 45 Step 6 Monitoring 46 Oversight 47 Summary 47 Notes 48 Chapter 5: COSO Framework and Financial Controls 49 Focus on Financial Controls 49 Control Environment 52 Integrity and Ethical Values 53 Board of Directors 55 Management’s Philosophy and Operating Style 57 Organizational Structure 57 Financial Reporting Competencies 58 Authority and Responsibility 59 Human Resources 60 Summary 61 Notes 62 Appendix 5A: Excerpt from a Code of Ethics Policy 63 Our Guiding Principles and Values 64 Conflicts of Interest 64 Confidential Information; Intellectual Property 65 Appendix 5B: Whistleblower Program 67 Reports Regarding Accounting Matters 67 Investigation of Suspected Violations 68 Discipline for Violations 68 Appendix 5C: Approval Policy and Procedures 69 Policy 69 Purpose 69 Scope 69 Approvals/Documentation 70 Chapter 6: Financial Controls and Risk Assessment 74 Risk Assessment 74 Financial Reporting Objectives 75 Financial Reporting Risks 76 Fraud Risk 77 Entity-Level Controls 83 Example: Risk Assessment and Financial Controls 84 Evaluating Deficiencies 86 Summary 87 Notes 87 Appendix 6A: Entity-Level Control Assessment 88 Control Assessment Overview 88 Control Environment 90 Overall Evaluation of Control Environment 95 Risk Assessment 96 Overall Evaluation of Risk Assessment 98 Control Activities 99 Overall Evaluation of Control Activities 100 Information and Communication 101 Overall Evaluation of Information and Communication 104 Monitoring 105 Overall Evaluation of Monitoring 108 Summary Assessment 109 Overall Assessment of Internal Controls 110 Appendix 6B: Accounts Payable Preliminary Controls Assessment Questionnaire 111 Purchasing Controls Questionnaire 111 Internal Control Assessment 112 Appendix 6C: Fraud Risk Factors: AU Section 316 114 Risk Factors Relating to Misstatements Arising from Fraudulent Financial Reporting 114 Chapter 7: Ongoing Compliance Overview 120 Origin of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act 120 Generating Value from Compliance 121 Moving Beyond Initial Compliance 123 Reevaluating the Compliance Program 125 Summary 131 Chapter 8: Ongoing Compliance Challenges 132 Future State Opportunity: Compliance Optimization 133 Issues to Consider When Optimizing Compliance 136 Ongoing Compliance Plan 138 Role of Internal Audit: Balancing the Compliance and Audit Functions 143 Evolving Role of the Audit Committee 145 Summary 148 Chapter 9: Addressing Compliance and Risk Management Challenges through Automation 149 Software Can Add Value Beyond Compliance 151 Monitoring Software 152 Utilization of Continuous Monitoring: Control Testing and Control Automation 153 Benefits of Continuous Monitoring 154 Continuous Monitoring Tool Considerations 155 Continuous Monitoring Process 155 Risk Management Software 157 Unifying Financial Statements, Close Tasks, and SOX Controls 159 Determining the Right Solution 159 Summary 161 Note 161 Chapter 10: Ongoing Compliance and IFRS 162 International Financial Reporting Standards 162 Communicating the Impact 164 Preparing for IFRS 166 Comprehensive IFRS Transition Approach 167 Key Elements of an Effective IFRS Implementation 170 Summary 172 About the Author 173 Index 175

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Book SynopsisNewsworthy disasters, such as fires and explosions in buildings housing hazardous materials, have focused attention as never before on methods of evaluating and controlling hazards. In the first coherent treatment of the subject, this title details the application of hazard and risk analysis to fire safety.Table of ContentsPreface. PART I: STRUCTURE OF THE FIRE PROBLEM. 1 The place of fire safety in the community. 2 The fire safety system. 3 Review of some major fire & explosion disasters. 4 Requirements from public and private authorities for fire safety. PART II: QUANTIFYING FIRE SAFETY. 5 Physical data. 6 Sources of statistical data. 7 Occurrence and growth of fire. 8 Life loss. 9 Property damage. 10 Performance of fire safety measures. PART III: METHODS OF MEASURING FIRE SAFETY. 11 Deterministic fire safety modeling. 12 Model Validation. 13 Point systems - a single index. 14 Logic trees. 15 Stochastic fire risk modeling. 16 Fire safety concepts tree and derivative approaches. 17 Fire safety assessment in the process industries. Index.

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Book SynopsisRisk and reliability analysis is an area of growing importance in geotechnical engineering, where many variables have to be considered. Statistics, reliability modeling and engineering judgement are employed together to develop risk and decision analyses for civil engineering systems. The resulting engineering models are used to make probabilistic predictions, which are applied to geotechnical problems. Reliability & Statistics in Geotechnical Engineering comprehensively covers the subject of risk and reliability in both practical and research terms * Includes extensive use of case studies * Presents topics not covered elsewhere--spatial variability and stochastic properties of geological materials * No comparable texts available Practicing engineers will find this an essential resource as will graduates in geotechnical engineering programmes.Table of ContentsPreface. Part I. 1 Introduction – uncertainty and risk in geotechnical engineering. 1.1 Offshore platforms. 1.2 Pit mine slopes. 1.3 Balancing risk and reliability in a geotechnical design. 1.4 Historical development of reliability methods in civil engineering. 1.5 Some terminological and philosophical issues. 1.6 The organization of this book. 1.7 A comment on notation and nomenclature. 2 Uncertainty. 2.1 Randomness, uncertainty, and the world. 2.2 Modeling uncertainties in risk and reliability analysis. 2.3 Probability. 3 Probability. 3.1 Histograms and frequency diagrams. 3.2 Summary statistics. 3.3 Probability theory. 3.4 Random variables. 3.5 Random process models. 3.6 Fitting mathematical pdf models to data. 3.7 Covariance among variables. 4 Inference. 4.1 Frequentist theory. 4.2 Bayesian theory. 4.3 Prior probabilities. 4.4 Inferences from sampling. 4.5 Regression analysis. 4.6 Hypothesis tests. 4.7 Choice among models. 5 Risk, decisions and judgment. 5.1 Risk. 5.2 Optimizing decisions. 5.3 Non-optimizing decisions. 5.4 Engineering judgment. Part II. 6 Site characterization. 6.1 Developments in site characterization. 6.2 Analytical approaches to site characterization. 6.3 Modeling site characterization activities. 6.4 Some pitfalls of intuitive data evaluation. 6.5 Organization of Part II. 7 Classification and mapping. 7.1 Mapping discrete variables. 7.2 Classification. 7.3 Discriminant analysis. 7.4 Mapping. 7.5 Carrying out a discriminant or logistic analysis. 8 Soil variability. 8.1 Soil properties. 8.2 Index tests and classification of soils. 8.3 Consolidation properties. 8.4 Permeability. 8.5 Strength properties. 8.6 Distributional properties. 8.7 Measurement error. 9 Spatial variability within homogeneous deposits. 9.1 Trends and variations about trends. 9.2 Residual variations. 9.3 Estimating autocorrelation and autocovariance. 9.4 Variograms and geostatistics. Appendix: algorithm for maximizing log-likelihood of autocovariance. 10 Random field theory. 10.1 Stationary processes. 10.2 Mathematical properties of autocovariance functions. 10.3 Multivariate (vector) random fields. 10.4 Gaussian random fields. 10.5 Functions of random fields. 11 Spatial sampling. 11.1 Concepts of sampling. 11.2 Common spatial sampling plans. 11.3 Interpolating random fields. 11.4 Sampling for autocorrelation. 12 Search theory. 12.1 Brief history of search theory. 12.2 Logic of a search process. 12.3 Single stage search. 12.4 Grid search. 12.5 Inferring target characteristics. 12.6 Optimal search. 12.7 Sequential search. Part III. 13 Reliability analysis and error propagation. 13.1 Loads, resistances and reliability. 13.2 Results for different distributions of the performance function. 13.3 Steps and approximations in reliability analysis. 13.4 Error propagation – statistical moments of the performance function. 13.5 Solution techniques for practical cases. 13.6 A simple conceptual model of practical significance. 14 First order second moment (FOSM) methods. 14.1 The James Bay dikes. 14.2 Uncertainty in geotechnical parameters. 14.3 FOSM calculations. 14.4 Extrapolations and consequences. 14.5 Conclusions from the James Bay study. 14.6 Final comments. 15 Point estimate methods. 15.1 Mathematical background. 15.2 Rosenblueth’s cases and notation. 15.3 Numerical results for simple cases. 15.4 Relation to orthogonal polynomial quadrature. 15.5 Relation with ‘Gauss points’ in the finite element method. 15.6 Limitations of orthogonal polynomial quadrature. 15.7 Accuracy, or when to use the point-estimate method. 15.8 The problem of the number of computation points. 15.9 Final comments and conclusions. 16 The Hasofer–Lind approach (FORM). 16.1 Justification for improvement – vertical cut in cohesive soil. 16.2 The Hasofer–Lind formulation. 16.3 Linear or non-linear failure criteria and uncorrelated variables. 16.4 Higher order reliability. 16.5 Correlated variables. 16.6 Non-normal variables. 17 Monte Carlo simulation methods. 17.1 Basic considerations. 17.2 Computer programming considerations. 17.3 Simulation of random processes. 17.4 Variance reduction methods. 17.5 Summary. 18 Load and resistance factor design. 18.1 Limit state design and code development. 18.2 Load and resistance factor design. 18.3 Foundation design based on LRFD. 18.4 Concluding remarks. 19 Stochastic finite elements. 19.1 Elementary finite element issues. 19.2 Correlated properties. 19.3 Explicit formulation. 19.4 Monte Carlo study of differential settlement. 19.5 Summary and conclusions. Part IV. 20 Event tree analysis. 20.1 Systems failure. 20.2 Influence diagrams. 20.3 Constructing event trees. 20.4 Branch probabilities. 20.5 Levee example revisited. 21 Expert opinion. 21.1 Expert opinion in geotechnical practice. 21.2 How do people estimate subjective probabilities? 21.3 How well do people estimate subjective probabilities? 21.4 Can people learn to be well-calibrated? 21.5 Protocol for assessing subjective probabilities. 21.6 Conducting a process to elicit quantified judgment. 21.7 Practical suggestions and techniques. 21.8 Summary. 22 System reliability assessment. 22.1 Concepts of system reliability. 22.2 Dependencies among component failures. 22.3 Event tree representations. 22.4 Fault tree representations. 22.5 Simulation approach to system reliability. 22.6 Combined approaches. 22.7 Summary. Appendix A: A primer on probability theory. A.1 Notation and axioms. A.2 Elementary results. A.3 Total probability and Bayes’ theorem. A.4 Discrete distributions. A.5 Continuous distributions. A.6 Multiple variables. A.7 Functions of random variables. References. Index.

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Book SynopsisMechanism design is an analytical framework for thinking clearly and carefully about what exactly a given institution can achieve when the information necessary to make decisions is dispersed and privately held. This analysis provides an account of the underlying mathematics of mechanism design based on linear programming. Three advantages characterize the approach. The first is simplicity: arguments based on linear programming are both elementary and transparent. The second is unity: the machinery of linear programming provides a way to unify results from disparate areas of mechanism design. The third is reach: the technique offers the ability to solve problems that appear to be beyond solutions offered by traditional methods. No claim is made that the approach advocated should supplant traditional mathematical machinery. Rather, the approach represents an addition to the tools of the economic theorist who proposes to understand economic phenomena through the lens of mechanism design.Trade Review'The new book by Vohra is an excellent and most timely introduction into mechanism design. It offers a concise introduction to the theory of mechanism design, currently missing in the literature; it uses linear programming to great benefit to analyze the structure of incentives; and it provides a comprehensive account of the seminal results in auction and mechanism design. A splendid treatment for advanced undergraduate and graduate courses in economic theory!' Dirk Bergemann, Yale University'Rakesh Vohra's exposition of the theory of mechanism design is wonderfully transparent and elegant. This short book equips the reader with a remarkably deep and comprehensive understanding of this important subject.' Tilman Borgers, University of Michigan'Vohra convincingly demonstrates that linear programming can give a powerful and unified perspective on mechanism design, clarifying the ideas and methods underlying existing results, and leading in many cases to greater generality or new findings. Graduate students, researchers in other areas, and experienced mechanism designers will all benefit from this book, which will influence mechanism design research for years to come.' Andrew McLennan, University of Queensland'Professor Vohra's rigorous text is unique in showing how numerous central results in mechanism design can be unified using the methodology of linear programming. His treatment is elegant and original, and it touches the most recent research frontiers.' Benny Moldovanu, University of Bonn'Rakesh Vohra takes the reader from the basics of social choice theory and network flow problems to a deep understanding of optimal incentive systems for complex resource-allocation problems, using the mathematics of linear programming elegantly throughout the book.' Roger Myerson, University of Chicago and 2007 Nobel Laureate'By situating the fundamental questions of social choice, incentive compatibility, and auction design within the theory of linear programming, Vohra is able to address the modern themes of mechanism design in a cohesive manner. The result is inspiring, enjoyable, and extremely compelling.' David Parkes, Harvard University'This beautiful book provides an insightful and useful treatment of the fundamental theorems of social choice and mechanism design from the unifying and powerful perspective of linear programming. A terrific read covering a broad range of topics including a serious and rare treatment of multidimensional mechanism design.' Phillip J. Reny, University of Chicago'The book does not assume any prior knowledge of mechanism design, but requires some familiarity with game theory, linear programming and convex analysis. As such, it is well suited to students and graduates of economic courses, but also to researchers and experienced mechanism designers.' Vangelis Grigoroudis, Zentralblatt MATHTable of Contents1. Introduction; 2. Arrow's theorem and its consequences; 3. Network flow problem; 4. Incentive compatibility; 5. Efficiency; 6. Revenue maximization; 7. Rationalizability.

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Book SynopsisThis book gives a comprehensive introduction to numerical methods and analysis of stochastic processes, random fields and stochastic differential equations, and offers graduate students and researchers powerful tools for understanding uncertainty quantification for risk analysis. Coverage includes traditional stochastic ODEs with white noise forcing, strong and weak approximation, and the multi-level Monte Carlo method. Later chapters apply the theory of random fields to the numerical solution of elliptic PDEs with correlated random data, discuss the Monte Carlo method, and introduce stochastic Galerkin finite-element methods. Finally, stochastic parabolic PDEs are developed. Assuming little previous exposure to probability and statistics, theory is developed in tandem with state-of-the-art computational methods through worked examples, exercises, theorems and proofs. The set of MATLAB codes included (and downloadable) allows readers to perform computations themselves and solve the teTrade Review'This book gives both accessible and extensive coverage on stochastic partial differential equations and their numerical solutions. It offers a well-elaborated background needed for solving numerically stochastic PDEs, both parabolic and elliptic. For the numerical solutions it presents not only proofs of convergence results of different numerical methods but also actual implementations, here in Matlab, with technical details included … With numerical implementations hard to find elsewhere in the literature, and a nice presentation of new research findings together with rich references, the book is a welcome companion for anyone working on numerical solutions of stochastic PDEs, and may also be suitable for use in a course on computational stochastic PDEs.' Roger Pettersson, Mathematical ReviewsTable of ContentsPart I. Deterministic Differential Equations: 1. Linear analysis; 2. Galerkin approximation and finite elements; 3. Time-dependent differential equations; Part II. Stochastic Processes and Random Fields: 4. Probability theory; 5. Stochastic processes; 6. Stationary Gaussian processes; 7. Random fields; Part III. Stochastic Differential Equations: 8. Stochastic ordinary differential equations (SODEs); 9. Elliptic PDEs with random data; 10. Semilinear stochastic PDEs.

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