Business, Finance & Law Books
Introductory Econometrics
Book Synopsis
£68.39
Cambridge University Press Transnational Management
Book SynopsisTransnational Management provides an integrated conceptual framework to guide students and instructors through the challenges facing enterprises operating in today''s complex worldwide environment. Through text narrative and cases, the authors skillfully examine the development of strategy, organizational capabilities and management roles, and responsibilities for managing effectively across national boundaries. The key concepts are developed in eight chapters supplemented by practical case studies from world-leading case writers. All chapters have been revised and updated for this ninth edition to reflect the latest thinking in transnational management while retaining the book''s strong integrated conceptual framework. Nineteen new cases have been added and thirteen classics are retained. Recommended academic and practitioner readings have been updated for each chapter. A full range of online support materials include detailed case teaching notes, comprehensive lecture slides and a test bank. Suitable for MBA, executive education, and senior undergraduate students studying courses such as international management, international business or global strategy.
£52.24
HarperCollins Publishers Leadership Wisdom from the Monk Who Sold His
Book SynopsisIn this eagerly awaited sequel to the international bestseller The Monk Who Sold His Ferrari, world renowned leadership guru Robin Sharma will teach you how to restore trust, commitment and belief within your organisation, while simultaneously changing the way you live your life in the process.A practical guide to visionary leadership and an inspiring fable, Leadership Wisdom is the true sequal to the international bestseller The Monk Who Sold His Ferrari.It follows the story of Peter Franklin, a frustrated owner of a struggling digital software company. Just as things start to seem hopeless for Peter, a young monk appears at his door, offering sure-fire advice on how to turn the fate of his business around. Peter is astonished to learn that the monk is in fact his long-lost friend Julian Mantle, returned from his extraordinary Indian odyssey and ready to share his timeless wisdom for visionary leadership.Expressed in an easy-to-use eight step system of practical lessons, this inspirinTrade Review‘Robin Sharma has the rare gift of writing books that are truly life-changing.’Richard Carlson, author of Don’t Sweat the Small Stuff 'Robin Sharma's books are helping people all around the world live great lives.'Paulo Coelho PRAISE FOR THE MONK WHO SOLD HIS FERRARI: ‘Nothing less than sensational. This book will bless your life.’Mark Victor Hansen, co-author, Chicken Soup for the Soul ‘The Monk Who Sold His Ferrari is a captivating story that teaches as it delights’Paulo Coelho ‘Contains treasures of wisdom that can enrich and enhance the life of every single person.’Brian Tracy, author of Maximum Achievement
£11.69
Penguin Putnam Inc The Forest Unseen
Book SynopsisFinalist for the Pulitzer Prize and the PEN/E.O. Wilson Literary Science Writing Award“Injects much-needed vibrancy into the stuffy world of nature writing.” —Outside, “The Outdoor Books That Shaped the Last Decade”The biologist and author of Sounds Wild and Broken combines elegant writing with scientific expertise to reveal the secret world hidden in a single square meter of old-growth forestIn this wholly original book, biologist David Haskell uses a one-square-meter patch of old-growth Tennessee forest as a window onto the entire natural world. Visiting it almost daily for one year to trace nature''s path through the seasons, he brings the forest and its inhabitants to vivid life.Each of this book''s short chapters begins with a simple observation: a salamander scuttling across the leaf litter; the first blossom of spring wildflowers. From these, Haskell spins a
£13.50
Penguin Putnam Inc The Inevitable Understanding the 12 Technological
Book Synopsis“A quintessential work of technological futurism.” – James Surowiecki, strategy + business, “Best Business Books 2017 – Innovation”From one of our leading technology thinkers and writers, a guide through the twelve technological imperatives that will shape the next thirty years and transform our livesMuch of what will happen in the next thirty years is inevitable, driven by technological trends that are already in motion. In this fascinating, provocative new book, Kevin Kelly provides an optimistic road map for the future, showing how the coming changes in our lives—from virtual reality in the home to an on-demand economy to artificial intelligence embedded in everything we manufacture—can be understood as the result of a few long-term, accelerating forces. Kelly both describes these deep trends—interacting, cognifying, flowing, screening, accessing, sharing, filtering, remixing, tracking, and questioni
£12.59
Princeton University Press Virtuous Bankers
Book Synopsis
£13.49
Penguin Putnam Inc More Money Than God
Book Synopsis
£15.75
HarperCollins Publishers Inc How to Be Everything
Book SynopsisWhat do you want to be when you grow up? It''s a familiar question we''re all asked as kids. While seemingly harmless, the question has unintended consequences. It can make you feel like you need to choose one job, one passion, one thing to be about. Guess what? You don''t. Having a lot of different interests, projects and curiosities doesn''t make you a jack-of-all-trades, master of none. Your endless curiosity doesn''t mean you are broken or flaky. What you are is a multipotentialite: someone with many interests and creative pursuits. And that is actually your biggest strength.How to Be Everything helps you channel your diverse passions and skills to work for you. Based on her popular TED talk, Why some of us don''t have one true calling, Emilie Wapnick flips the script on conventional career advice. Instead of suggesting that you specialize, choose a niche or accumulate 10,000 hours of practice in a single area, Wapnick provides a practical framewoTrade Review“Feel-good, encouraging advice on distilling a variety of passions and interests into success. This book is chock full of great exercises and practical advice and we highly recommend picking up a copy. ” — Forbes “We are all unique, so why does there only seem to be one path towards success? How to Be Everything throws out this one-size-fits-all approach and explains how to make our diverse skills sets work for us. — Todd Rose, Harvard University scientist, co-founder and president of the Center for Individual Opportunity, and author of The End of Average “Emilie brings hope, tools, inspiration and affirmation to the most misunderstood and undervalued segment of our society: multipotentialites. I raise my fist in solidarity, and celebrate this groundbreaking book!” — Pamela Slim, author of Body of Work and Escape from Cubicle Nation “If you’ve struggled finding your place in a world that rewards conformity, you know that choosing a single profession isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. You’re no longer alone—Emilie’s HOW TO BE EVERYTHING is a beautiful guide with practical tools to help you find your way without losing yourself.” — Chris Guillebeau, New York Times bestselling author of The Happiness of Pursuit and The $100 Startup How to be Everything helps you understand and process your diverse skills so you don’t have to sacrifice your potential. This book will help you fulfill your biggest dreams; all of them! — Buzzfeed “If you still don’t know what you’re doing with your life, Emilie Wapnick’s new book will make you feel better.” — Bustle “How to Be Everything is an empowering guide...This book is for the kind of people who can’t choose just one path because they aspire to be Art Directors + Restaurant Owners + Teachers + Best-Selling Authors + more all in this lifetime” — Darla Magazine
£10.44
Kogan Page Employee Relations Explained
Book SynopsisGemma Dale is a senior lecturer in the Business School at Liverpool John Moores University, teaching management, HR and personal development skills to first second and third year undergraduates. She is an experienced HR professional, as Chartered Fellow of the CIPD and Fellow of the HEA , with over twenty years of experience working in a range of HR roles across multiple sectors. Gemma Dale is the author of How to Work Remotely and Flexible Working, also published by Kogan Page.
£16.14
John Wiley & Sons Coming into View How AI and Rising Debt Will Res
Book Synopsis
£17.60
Taylor & Francis Designing for Playful Engagement in Museums
Designing for Playful Engagement in Museums is filled with creative fodder for practitioners who wish to make more memorable and engaging experiences that promote a sense of presence, effectively evoke emotions, tell stories that transport them, and harness visitorsâ innate playfulness.Providing readers with a framework for understanding playful engagement, Rodley details four concepts that, used effectively, can create a new generation of compelling visitor experiences. The book combines research and examples from the cultural and for-profit sectors with new insights from current research in psychology, neuroscience and human computer interaction to explore why these concepts are valuable to designers. Reflections from leading practitioners from around the globe and across the experience design spectrum provide unique insights into the current state of practice. This is augmented by examples from the authorâs thirty-plus years of experience developing visitor experiences in a variety of science, art, and history museums.Designing for Playful Engagement in Museums provides practitioners with a concrete way of thinking about engagement that centers visitors. The book will be of particular interest to professionals in museums, libraries and archives, but will also be essential reading for academics and students engaged in the study of museums, heritage, digital humanities and experience design.
£31.34
John Wiley & Sons Investments Analysis and Management 15th Edition
Book Synopsis
£132.26
Oxford University Press Governance
Book SynopsisGenerally referring to all forms of social coordination and patterns of rule, the term 'governance' is used in many different contexts. In this Very Short Introduction, Mark Bevir explores the main theories of governance and considers their impact on ideas of governance in the corporate, public, and global arenas.Trade Review[A] a well written, strong account of the story of governance * Political Studies Review *Table of ContentsLIST OF ABBREVIATIONS; FURTHER READING; INDEX
£9.49
Oxford University Press An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the
Book SynopsisIn addressing the nature and causes of the wealth of nations, Adam Smith made one of the most potent contributions to subsequent ideological history. In the west since the early nineteenth century he has been the patron saint of homo economicus. More recently, successive British governments have invoked his policy recommendations of free trade and laissez-faire to aid their extension of privatization and market effectiveness into areas such as health and education. Smith, however, not only viewed merchants and manufacturers with deep suspicion, but also tempered his celebration of a self-regulating market with a darker vision of the dehumanizing potential of a profit-oriented society. He did not write an economics textbook, but rather a panoramic narrative about the struggle for individual liberty and general prosperity in history, a subject he shared with other writers of the Enlightenment.Trade Reviewthe selection of material is judicious and the commentary brilliant and entertaining * Mark Davis, Professor of Mathematics, Imperial College London *
£9.49
Purchasing and Supply Chain Management
Book Synopsis
£74.09
Taylor & Francis Performing Organizational Paradoxes
Book SynopsisPerforming Organizational Paradoxes takes a constitutive, process approach to organizational paradoxes. It underscores the performative nature of paradox through underlying dialectical tensions, its sociomaterial foundations, and power features that bring paradoxes to life, sustain them, and enable their transformation. The book first situates a constitutive approach in the extant organizational paradox literature, by broadening the constitutive approach and addressing the many debates and inaccuracies around it. For the novice, several early chapters devote themselves to considering how paradoxical tensions present themselves, invite responses, and interrelate through their organizing outcomes. For the advanced, latter chapters consider the ubiquity of power and paradox, how bodies escape the quarantine of their paradox narratives, how inventive category work can resist power-imbued paradoxes, and an agenda for future research that challenges scholars to do more on the process side of paradox.Filling an important gap in the existing literature, this book will be a key resource for scholars and students in the fields of communication, management, educational administration, organizational psychology and any other fields that study organizations.
£37.99
Biteback Publishing Return to Growth
Book SynopsisIn Volume Two of this arresting and powerful manifesto for economic change, Jon Moynihan analyses the UK's decades-long stagnant economy and looks at what can be done to resuscitate it.
£20.00
The University of Chicago Press An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the
Book Synopsis
£21.00
Cengage Learning, Inc Quantitative Methods for Business
Book SynopsisYou don't have to be a mathematician to maximize the power of quantitative methods. Written for the current-or future-business professional, QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR BUSINESS, 13E makes it easy for you to understand how you can most effectively use quantitative methods to make smart, successful decisions. The book's hallmark problem-scenario approach guides you step by step through the application of mathematical concepts and techniques. Memorable real-life examples demonstrate how and when to use the methods found in the book, while instant online access provides you with Excel worksheets, LINGO, and the Excel add-in Analytic Solver Platform. The chapter on simulation includes a more elaborate treatment of uncertainty by using Microsoft Excel to develop spreadsheet simulation models. The new edition also includes a more holistic approach to variability in project management. Completely up to date, QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR BUSINESS, 13E reflects the latest trends, issues, and practicesTable of ContentsPreface. 1. Introduction. 2. Introduction to Probability. 3. Probability Distributions. 4. Decision Analysis. 5. Utility and Game Theory. 6. Time Series Analysis and Forecasting. 7. Introduction to Linear Programming. 8. Linear Programming: Sensitivity Analysis and Interpretation of Solution. 9. Linear Programming Applications in Marketing, Finance, and Operations Management. 10. Distribution and Network Models. 11. Integer Linear Programming. 12. Advanced Optimization Applications. 13. Project Scheduling: PERT/CPM. 14. Inventory Models. 15. Waiting Line Models. 16. Simulation. 17. Markov Processes. Appendix A: Building Spreadsheet Models. Appendix B: Binomial Probabilities. Appendix C: Poisson Probabilities. Appendix D: Areas for the Standard Normal Distribution. Appendix E: Values for e-��. Appendix F: References and Bibliography. Appendix G: Self-Test Solutions and Answers to Even-Numbered Problems.
£83.59
McGraw-Hill Education Case Studies in Finance
Book SynopsisCase Studies in Finance links managerial decisions to capital markets and the expectations of investors. At the core of almost all of the cases is a valuation task that requires students to look to financial markets for guidance in resolving the case problem. The focus on value helps managers understand the impact of the firm on the world around it. These cases also invite students to apply modern information technology to the analysis of managerial decisions.The cases may be taught in many different combinations. The eight-part sequence indicated by the table of contents relates to course designs used at the authors'' schools. Each part of the casebook suggests a concept module, with a particular orientation.
£55.79
Swift Press Vassal State
Book Synopsis'Provocative and detailed ... Excellent' The Telegraph'Shocking and meticulous' Danny Dorling'An eye-opening revelation ... a must-read' Joel BakanTHE TELEGRAPH BEST BOOKS OF 2024British politicians love to vaunt the benefits of the UK's supposed special relationship' with the US. But are we really America's economic partner or its colony?Vassal State lays bare the extent to which US corporations own and control Britain's economy: how American business chiefs decide what we're paid, what we buy, and how we buy it. US companies have carved up Britain between them, siphoning off enormous profits, buying up our most lucrative firms and assets, and extracting huge rents from UK PLC all while paying little or no tax. Meanwhile, policymakers, from Whitehall mandarins to NHS chiefs, shape their decisions to suit the whims of our American corporate overlords. Based on his 40 years of business experience, devastating new research, and interviews with the major players, Angus Hanton exposes why Britain has become the poor transatlantic relation and what we can do to change it.
£11.69
John Wiley & Sons Inc Improving Performance
Book SynopsisImproving Performance is recognized as the book that launched the Process Improvement revolution. It was the first such approach to bridge the gap between organization strategy and the individual. Now, in this revised and expanded new edition, Gary Rummler reflects on the key needs of organizations faced with today''s challenge of managing change in today''s complex world. The book shows how to apply the three levels of performance and link performance to strategy, move from annual programs to sustained performance improvement, redesign processes, overcome the seven deadly sins of performance improvement and much more.Table of ContentsList of Figures and Tables v Foreword ix Preface xi The Authors xvii Part One: A Framework for Improving Performance 1 1 Viewing Organizations as Systems 3 2 Three Levels of Performance: Organization, Process, and Job/Performer 12 Part Two: Exploring The Three Levels of Performance 27 3 The Organization Level of Performance 29 4 The Process Level of Performance 42 5 The Job/Performer Level of Performance 62 Part Three: Applying The Three Levels of Performance 75 6 Linking Performance to Strategy 77 7 Moving from Annual Programs to Sustained Performance Improvement 86 8 Diagnosing and Improving Performance: A Case Study 97 9 Project Definition: The Ten Essential Steps 110 10 Process Analysis and Design: The Ten Essential Steps 140 11 Overcoming the Seven Deadly Sins of Process Improvement 174 12 Measuring Performance and Designing a Performance Management System 182 13 Managing Processes and Organizations as Systems 211 14 Designing an Organization Structure That Works 226 15 Creating a Performance-Based Human Resource Development Function 244 16 Developing an Action Plan for Performance Improvement 259 Index 264 Instructor’s Guide 270
£59.85
John Wiley & Sons Inc RedBlooded Risk
Book SynopsisAn innovative guide that identifies what distinguishes the best financial risk takers from the rest From 1987 to 1992, a small group of Wall Street quants invented an entirely new way of managing risk to maximize success: risk management for risk-takers. This is the secret that lets tiny quantitative edges create hedge fund billionaires, and defines the powerful modern global derivatives economy. The same practical techniques are still used today by risk-takers in finance as well as many other fields. Red-Blooded Risk examines this approach and offers valuable advice for the calculated risk-takers who need precise quantitative guidance that will help separate them from the rest of the pack. While most commentators say that the last financial crisis proved it''s time to follow risk-minimizing techniques, they''re wrong. The only way to succeed at anything is to manage true risk, which includes the chance of loss. Red-Blooded Risk presents specific, actionTrade Review"Wickedly original, one of the most fascinating accounts I have ever seen. A rollicking and highly opinionated read." (Risk Professional, October 2011) “No one who reads Red-Blooded Risk: The Secret History of Wall Street will ever again regard risk management as a necessary but unproductive appendage of the financial industry. Other authors have chronicled how quantitative finance influenced investment management, but Aaron Brown has made a compelling case for a far more profound economic impact. . . If Red-Blooded Risk: The Secret History of Wall Street dealt with nothing more than the inadequacy of models used in highly important activities, it would represent a valuable contribution to financial economics. Brown’s book, however, covers a great deal more than econometric malpractice. Probably no other book offers as much insight into the process with so little resort to mathematical notation. Especially valuable are Brown’s discussions of middle-office risk management and value at risk, comparatively recent innovations that are essential to understanding modern financial institutions. Readers of Red-Blooded Risk should be prepared to have many of their assumptions challenged. Red-Blooded Risk is one of the most original and thought-provoking books reviewed in these pages in the past 20 years. No one who reads it will ever again regard risk management as a necessary but unproductive appendage of the financial industry. Other authors have chronicled how quantitative finance influenced investment management, but Aaron Brown has made a compelling case for a far more profound economic impact.” —Martin S. Fridson, CFA Institute Publications Book Reviews “Red-Blooded Risk mixes risk history and philosophy nimbly and provides a perspective that can be both refreshing and challenging (often on the same page). While the book is not without weaknesses, it is also brimming with original perspectives and controversial opinions. Those who work in risk management or quantitative finance will enjoy Brown’s story-telling and expert perspectives, even if they do not share his views, while non-quants will find his insights and confessions to be a useful glimpse into the psyche and ethos of an influential group of early quantitative risk takers. —Roger M. Stein, Research and Academic Relations, Moody’s Corporation, as reviewed in Quantitative Finance (August 6, 2012)Table of ContentsAcknowledgments xi Chapter 1 What This Book Is and Why You Should Read It 1 Risk, Danger, and Opportunity 2 Red- Blooded Risk Management 4 Risk and Life 7 Play and Money 9 Frequentism 11 Rationality 13 Bets 15 Exponentials and Culture 18 Payoff 20 Chapter 2 Red Blood and Blue Blood 23 Chapter 3 Pascal’s Wager and the Seven Principles of Risk Management 29 Principle I: Risk Duality 32 Principle II: Valuable Boundary 33 Principle III: Risk Ignition 35 Principle IV: Money 38 Outside the VaR Boundary 40 Principle V: Evolution 45 Principle VI: Superposition 48 Principle VII: Game Theory 49 Chapter 4 The Secret History of Wall Street: 1654– 1982 57 Pascal and Fermat 58 Poker 61 Advantage Gamblers 62 Sports Betting 63 Quants to Wall Street 66 Finance People 68 Real Finance 69 Chapter 5 When Harry Met Kelly 73 Kelly 74 Harry 76 Commodity Futures 79 If Harry Knew Kelly 84 Investment Growth Theory 88 eRaider.com 92 MPT Out in the World 96 Chapter 6 Exponentials, Vampires, Zombies, and Tulips 101 Types of Growth 102 The Negative Side 105 Tulips 106 Tulip Propaganda 108 Quantitative Tulip Modeling 111 Money 112 Chapter 7 Money 117 Chapter 8 The Story of Money: The Past 125 Property, Exchange, and Money 126 Paleonomics 128 Transition 131 What Money Does 134 Risk 135 Government and Paper 138 Paper versus Metal 142 1776 and All That 145 Andrew Dexter 147 A Short Digression into Politics and Religion 150 Chapter 9 The Secret History of Wall Street: 1983– 1987 155 Efficient Markets 157 Anomalies 159 The Price Is Right Not! 161 Efficiency versus Equilibrium 162 Beating the Market 165 Paths 170 Sharpe Ratios and Wealth 174 1987 177 Chapter 10 The Story of Money: The Future 179 Farmers and Millers 180 Money, New and Improved 183 A General Theory of Money 185 Value and Money 189 Numeraire 191 Clearinghouses 196 Cash 197 Derivative Money 200 The End of Paper 203 Chapter 11 Cold Blood 207 Chapter 12 What Does a Risk Manager Do?—Inside VaR 213 Professional Standards 213 Front Office 215 Trading Risk 217 Quants on the Job 218 Middle Office 222 Back Office 225 Middle Office Again 227 Looking Backward 228 Risk Control 230 Beyond Profit and Loss 232 Numbers 234 The Banks of the Charles 236 Waste 238 The Banks of the Potomac 241 The Summer of My Discontent 245 Validation 247 Chapter 13 VaR of the Jungle 251 Chapter 14 The Secret History of Wall Street: 1988– 1992 255 Smile 256 Back to the Dissertation 258 Three Paths 262 An Unexpected Twist 265 Surprise! 267 Computing VaR 271 Chapter 15 Hot Blood and Thin Blood 277 Chapter 16 What Does a Risk Manager Do?— Outside VaR 283 Stress Tests 283 Trans-VaR Scenarios 287 Black Holes 289 Why Risk Managers Failed to Prevent the Financial Crisis 290 Managing Risk 296 Unspeakable Truth Number One: Risk Managers Should Make Sure Firms Fail 299 Unspeakable Truth Number Two: There’s Good Stuff beyond the VaR Limit 305 Unspeakable Truth Number Three: Risk Managers Create Risk 309 Chapter 17 The Story of Risk 313 Chapter 18 Frequency versus Degree of Belief 323 Statistical Games 324 Thorp, Black, Scholes, and Merton 329 Change of Numeraire 333 Polling 336 The Quant Revolution 341 Chapter 19 The Secret History of Wall Street: 1993– 2007 345 Where Did the Money Come From? 348 Where Did They Put the Money? 359 Where Did the Money Go? 364 Chapter 20 The Secret History of Wall Street: The 2007 Crisis and Beyond 369 Postmortem 379 A Risk Management Curriculum 387 One Hundred Useful Books 393 About the Author 401 About the Illustrator 403 Index 405
£23.80
John Wiley & Sons Inc The New Trading for a Living Psychology
Book SynopsisThe best-selling trading book of all time updated for the new era The New Trading for a Living updates a modern classic, popular worldwide among both private and institutional traders.Table of ContentsPreface xiii Introduction 1 1. Trading—The Last Frontier 1 2. Psychology is the Key 3 3. The Odds against You 5 One Individual Psychology 9 4. Why Trade? 9 5. Reality versus Fantasy 10 6. Self-Destructiveness 16 7. Trading Psychology 19 8. Trading Lessons from AA 21 9. Losers Anonymous 23 10. Winners and Losers 27 Two Mass Psychology 31 11. What is Price? 32 12. What is the Market? 33 13. The Trading Scene 36 14. The Market Crowd and You 39 15. Psychology of Trends 43 16. Managing versus Forecasting 46 Three Classical Chart Analysis 49 17. Charting 50 18. Support and Resistance 55 19. Trends and Trading Ranges 60 20. Kangaroo Tails 65 Four Computerized Technical Analysis 69 21. Computers in Trading 69 22. Moving Averages 74 23. Moving Average Convergence-Divergence: MACD Lines and MACD-Histogram 80 24. The Directional System 89 25. Oscillators 95 26. Stochastic 95 27. Relative Strength Index 99 Five Volume and Time 103 28. Volume 103 29. Volume-Based Indicators 107 30. Force Index 112 31. Open Interest 117 32. Time 121 33. Trading Timeframes 126 Six General Market Indicators 133 34. The New High–New Low Index 133 35. Stocks above 50-Day MA 139 36. Other Stock Market Indicators 140 37. Consensus and Commitment Indicators 142 Seven Trading Systems 149 38. System Testing, Paper Trading, and the Three Key Demands for Every Trade 151 39. Triple Screen Trading System 154 40. The Impulse System 162 41. Channel Trading Systems 166 Eight Trading Vehicles 173 42. Stocks 175 43. ETFs 176 44. Options 178 45. CFDs 186 46. Futures 187 47. Forex 194 Nine Risk Management 197 48. Emotions and Probabilities 197 49. The Two Main Rules of Risk Control 202 50. The Two Percent Rule 203 51. The Six Percent Rule 208 52. A Comeback from a Drawdown 210 Ten Practical Details 215 53. How to Set Profit Targets: “Enough” is the Power Word 215 54. How to Set Stops: Say No to Wishful Thinking 219 55. Is This an A-trade? 225 56. Scanning for Possible Trades 230 Eleven Good Record-Keeping 233 57. Your Daily Homework 234 58. Creating and Scoring Trade Plans 238 59. Trade Journal 243 A Journey without an End: How to Continue Learning 249 Sources 253 Acknowledgments 257 About the Author 259 Index 261
£47.96
John Wiley & Sons Inc Grow the Core
Book SynopsisGrow the Core stands conventional wisdom about business growth on its head and provides a proven formula for growing your business in recessionary times. These days, it s a common belief among business leaders across industry sectors that the best way to grow their businesses is to expand into new markets.Trade ReviewIncludes useful tips, including how to strengthen a core brand with a limited communication budget. (Supply Business, January 2013) For a marketer, retail buyer, entrepreneur or interested consumer, this is a great book looking at whether businesses should stick to what they know of their original or most profitable brand or whether businesses should expand into other broader areas. (Supply Management, February 2013) The marketing division of any well-established company should study this book- you never know when the mighty might fall. (Professional Manager, May 2013)Table of ContentsThanks xi Introduction xiii Part I: Why Grow the Core? 1 1. Defining the core 3 What is the core? 3 Anchoring the core 7 Key takeouts 9 Checklist 9 2. Stretching the brand, forgetting the core 11 Getting it right… brand stretch can work – Apple 11 Getting it wrong… brand ego tripping – Virgin 13 Snow White and the 17 dwarves 20 Neglecting the core – Bausch & Lomb 24 Key takeouts 25 Checklist 26 3. The case for the core 27 Two ways to make a million – Heinz soup 27 The case for the core 30 A new marketing mind-set – Scooty 30 The challenges of growing the core 32 Key takeouts 36 Checklist 36 Part II: Grow the Core Principles 37 4. The core growth drivers 39 Core growth driver 1: Penetration 39 Driving penetration with distinctiveness 44 Fresh consistency – James Bond 48 Driving penetration with distribution 57 Core growth driver 2: Premiumisation 58 The Grow the Core workouts 59 The best brand in the world – Nespresso? 61 Key takeouts 65 Checklist 66 5. Renovation or re-invention? 67 Renovate the core – Walkers 69 Re-position the core – Lucozade 72 Re-define the core – Bertolli 76 Re-invent the core – Kodak and TomTom 77 Key takeouts 82 Checklist 83 Part III: Grow the Core Workouts 85 6. Workout 1: Bake the brand into your product 87 Bake in your brand – The Geek Squad 89 Using product to grow your core 1: Amplify a product truth – Morrisons and Castle Lite 92 Using product to grow your core 2: More of what you want – McDonald’s 97 Using product to grow your core 3: Less of what you don’t want – Walkers 99 Key takeouts 100 Checklist 100 7. Workout 2: Create a distinctive identity 103 Identity crisis 105 Being the 1 in 1000 106 Balancing freshness and consistency – Tropicana 108 Updating your identity – Nivea 110 Creating your identity – Charlie Bigham’s 111 Suggesting a benefit – Waitrose Essentials 113 Re-positioning – Green & Black’s 115 Adding value – Molton Brown 115 Packvertising – innocent 116 Family ties – Nescaf´e and Red Bull 118 Amplifying brand properties – Felix 121 Five-minute focus groups 122 Key takeouts 124 Checklist 124 8. Workout 3: Communicate with cut-through 127 Communication breakdown 129 Fresh consistency 132 Think like a TV producer 137 Creating a campaign – Sainsbury’s 138 Refreshing what made you famous – Hovis 140 What about social media? 144 Key takeouts 161 Checklist 162 9. Workout 4: Go beyond promotion to activation 163 Grab and go – innocent’s Big Knit 166 Creating an activation property – Carling ‘Be the Coach’ 168 Amplifying the property – Nike 172 Key takeouts 175 Checklist 176 10. Workouts 5 and 6: Drive your distribution 177 Workout 5: Existing channels 180 Workout 6: New channels 182 Key takeouts 188 Checklist 189 11. Workouts 7 and 8: Extend the core 191 Delivering a double whammy 193 Workout 7: Pack extension – WD-40 196 Workout 8: Product extension – Ryvita 199 Key takeouts 202 Checklist 202 Part IV: The Grow the Core Workplan 203 12. Grow the core – getting started 205 Stage 1: Insight 207 Stage 2: Ideas 214 Stage 3: Exploration 214 Stage 4: Action 215 Key takeouts 220 Checklist 221 References 223 Also by 227 Index 229
£16.14
Bloomberg Press Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading
Book Synopsis
£37.50
Harvard Business Review Press The Innovators Dilemma
Book SynopsisThe bestselling classic on disruptive innovation by renowned author Clayton M. Christensen.A Wall Street Journal and Businessweek Bestseller.Named by the Economist as one of the six most important books about business ever written.Named by Fast Company as one of the most influential leadership books in its Leadership Hall of Fame.His work is cited by the world''s best-known thought leaders, from Steve Jobs to Malcolm Gladwell. In this classic bestseller—one of the most influential business books of all time—innovation expert Clayton Christensen shows how even the most outstanding companies can do everything right yet still lose market leadership.Now with a foreword by Marc Benioff, the cofounder and CEO of Salesforce, Christensen explains why most companies miss out on new waves of innovation. No matter the industry, he says, a successful company with established products will get
£23.75
John Wiley & Sons Inc The Travels of a TShirt in the Global Economy
Book SynopsisThe keys to global business success, as taught by a T-shirt''s journey The Travels of a T-Shirt in the Global Economy is a critically-acclaimed narrative that illuminates the globalization debates and reveals the key factors to success in global business. Tracing a T-shirt''s life story from a Texas cotton field to a Chinese factory and back to a U.S. storefront before arriving at the used clothing market in Africa, the book uncovers the political and economic forces at work in the global economy. Along the way, this fascinating exploration addresses a wealth of compelling questions about politics, trade, economics, ethics, and the impact of history on today''s business landscape. This new printing of the second edition includes a revised preface and a new epilogue with updates through 2014 on the people, industries, and policies related to the T-shirt''s life story. Using a simple, everyday T-shirt as a lens through which to explore the business, economic, morTable of ContentsPreface ix Prologue xvii Part I King Cotton 1 1 How America Has Dominated the Global Cotton Industry for 200 Years 3 2 The History of American Cotton 9 3 Back at the Reinsch Farm 24 4 All God’s Dangers Ain’t the Subsidies 49 Part II Made in China 75 5 Cotton Comes to China 77 6 The Long Race to the Bottom 92 7 Sisters in Time 105 8 The Unwitting Conspiracy 120 Part III Trouble at the Border 141 9 Returning to America 143 10 Dogs Snarling Together 156 11 Perverse Effects and Unintended Consequences of T-Shirt Trade Policy 171 12 45 Years of ‘‘Temporary’’ Protectionism End in 2009—Now What? 196 Part IV My T-shirt Finally Encounters a Free Market 213 13 Where T-Shirts Go after the Salvation Army Bin 215 14 How Small Entrepreneurs Clothe East Africa with Old American T-Shirts 227 15 Mitumba: Friend or Foe to Africa? 239 Conclusion 253 Epilogue: Developments 2009–2014 262 I: American Cotton Is Still King 262 II: The Race to the Bottom Speeds Up 270 III: The Alphabet Armies March On 277 IV: Competition Heats Up in the Used Clothing Business 282 Acknowledgments 286 Notes 288 Bibliography 310 Index 335
£15.30
John Wiley & Sons Inc Getting Started in Chart Patterns
Book SynopsisYour plain-English guide to understanding and using technical chart patterns Chart pattern analysis is not only one of the most important investing tools, but also one of the most popular.Table of ContentsPreface to First and Second Editions ix Acknowledgments xi Chapter 1 Introduction to Chart Patterns 1 Chapter 2 Identifying Chart Patterns 7 Chapter 3 The Truth about Trendlines 17 Chapter 4 Support and Resistance 35The Most Important Chart Patterns Chapter 5 Ten Buy Signals 53 Chapter 6 Ten Sell Signals 119 Chapter 7 Special Situations 191 Chapter 8 Busted Patterns 225Making Money by Trading Failure Chapter 9 More Trades 255Putting It All Together Chapter 10 The Art of Trading 285Checklists Chapter 11 Crunching the Numbers 323 Glossary 327 Visual Index of Chart Patterns 333 About the Author 339 Index 341
£17.85
John Wiley and Sons Ltd Accounting Ethics
Book SynopsisA trusted resource on the complex ethical questions that define the accounting professionAn accountant's practice depends on making difficult decisions. To achieve the best results, individual accountants and accounting firms need a clear understanding of the ethical duties and decision-making involved in the four major functions of modern accountingauditing, management accounting, tax accounting, and consultingas well as a strong sense of ethical conduct to guide the certification and validation of reliable financial records. Now in its third edition, Accounting Ethics is a thorough and engaging exploration of the ethical issues that accountants encounter in their professional lives. Since the publication of the first edition in 2002, Accounting Ethics has become an indispensable resource for accounting courses and certification programs worldwide, known for its focus on real-world application, practical advice, reader-friendly guidance, and Table of ContentsPreface to the Third Edition vii Introduction to Accounting Ethics 1 1 The Nature of Accounting and the Chief Ethical Difficulty:True Disclosure 9 2 Ethical Behavior in Accounting: What is Ethics? 35 3 Ethical Behavior in Accounting: Ethical Theory 57 4 Accounting as a Profession: Characteristics of a Profession 75 5 Accounting Codes of Conduct 83 6 The Rules of the Code of Conduct 103 7 The Auditing Function 129 8 The Ethics of Managerial Accounting 157 9 The Ethics of Tax Accounting 177 10 Ethics Applied to the Accounting Firm 197 Appendix A: Summary of Sarbanes–Oxley Act of 2002 219 Appendix B: IMA Statement of Ethical Professional Practice 231 Index 235
£24.65
Crown Publishing Group (NY) The Systems Leader
Book Synopsis
£20.00
McGraw-Hill Education The McKinsey Edge Success Principles from the
Book SynopsisWHAT DOES IT TAKE TO BE A GREAT LEADER?The ultimate guide to managing your careerâat every level, through every transitionâThe McKinsey Edge culls the best practices of an exclusive group of executives and consultants from McKinsey & Company, the legendary consulting firm that services eighty percent of the worldâs largest corporations. Drawing on his time as an Engagement Manager with McKinsey, Hattori presents rigorously selected, battle-tested tips that will give you the edge you need to up your game, raise your profile, and take your career to the next levelâusing a proven four-step program: Learn more effective ways to get ahead by making multiple self-improvements. Strengthen your skills of communication, connection, and understanding to influence your team and other stakeholders. Increase your productivity and performance using tools that work best for your specific environment. Push yourself further to focusTable of ContentsAcknowledgments xiIntroduction 1 CHAPTER ONE: Building the Better Self 9Get Ahead 10Principle 1 Focus on What Really Matters 11Principle 2 Start with the Hard Stuff in the Morning 15Principle 3 Catch Small Signals and Make a Difference 18Principle 4 Have a 30- Second Answer to Everything 20Principle 5 Frontload Your Project 22Principle 6 Create the Right End Output Image 27Hang Tight 31Principle 7 Smile When You Are Under Stress 32Principle 8 Go Beyond Your Self- Perceived Limit 34Principle 9 Always Imagine the Worst- Case Scenario 37Principle 10 Start Following Up 40Principle 11 Push Back with Less Emotion 42Multiple Reflections 47Principle 12 Be Flexible on the Perception of Your Passion 48Principle 13 “What Would Marvin Do?” Find Your Role Models 51Principle 14 Know What Gives You the Most Energy in Your Day 54Principle 15 Go Jogging to Smell the Flowers 57Principle 16 Create a Commitment Plan 59 Chapter Two: Growing with Others 63Communication 64Principle 17 Always Memorize the First Three Sentences of a Presentation 65Principle 18 Communicate Using Fewer Words 67Principle 19 Pause Three Seconds Before Answering Difficult Questions 69Principle 20 Question More and Talk Less 72Principle 21 Turn No into Yes 75Principle 22 Don’t Show Half- Baked Output 77Connection 79Principle 23 Instantly Find a Connection in the Room 80Principle 24 Be a Giver, Not a Receiver 81Principle 25 Find the Best Intent in People 83Principle 26 Learn Team Members’ Defining Moments and Personal Sides 85Principle 27 Think of Everyone as a Helpful Individual, Not a “Resource” 88Principle 28 Go Out for a Meal with Interesting People Every Week 90Understanding 93Principle 29 Consciously Gauge Your People 94Principle 30 Assign Team Members Meaningful Tasks 96Principle 31 Create Followership Through Deliberate On- the- Job Coaching 98Principle 32 Deliver Feedback Using Positive Criticism 100Principle 33 Please Your Assistants and Support Staff 102 Chapter Three: Excelling in Process Management 105Productivity Themes and Enablers 106Principle 34 Always Prepare an Agenda Before Meetings 107Principle 35 Create “Four Boxes” To Dos 109Principle 36 Focus on Outcomes Not Activities 111Principle 37 Know Your Meeting Modes in Advance 114Principle 38 Proactively Manage E- mail Communication Using the 5D Rules 117Principle 39 Speak Up as Early as Possible 119Principle 40 Create a Minimalist Presentation Tool Kit 122Principle 41 Create an Easy- to- Use Template for Updates 127 Chapter Four: Going the Extra Mile 131The Challenge to Achieve Lasting Growth 132Principle 42 Give Away Knowledge and Tools Unsparingly 133Principle 43 Get Rid of Your Physical Barriers 136Principle 44 Ask the Second Order Questions 138Principle 45 Learn to Write Fewer Notes 141Principle 46 Prepare to Renew Your Life 143Principle 47 Create Your Own “Profile” as a Leader 146 Chapter Five: Become a Thinker and a Writer 149Thinking Sets Leaders Apart 149Marvin Bower on the Value of Writing 151 Appendix I: McKinsey Structure 153Notes 157Index 161
£18.69
Cambridge University Press Institutional Genes
Book Synopsis
£42.75
John Wiley & Sons Rethinking Investing
Book Synopsis
£12.60
Pearson Education Business Model Book The
Book SynopsisAdam Bock is a research academic, serial entrepreneur, and professional financier and venture consultant. As an academic, he has studied business models globally, from the US and UK to Russia and India, and has published highly cited articles about business models, including the first large-scale global study of business model innovation. As Senior Lecturer in Entrepreneurship at The University of Edinburgh, he teaches and has taught courses on business models to hundreds of international students across every field of study. Adam has given invited lectures on business models at top global Business School as well as Academy of Management, the most prestigious management scholarship conference. In 10 years of entrepreneurial activity, he co-founded three life science ventures spun-out of universities. One of those ventures, Nerites Corporation, was purchased by Kensey-Nash (Royal DSM, NA) for $20 million in 2011. He managed multiple angel networks, facilitatinTable of ContentsTable of Contents Introduction How to use this book Part 1: The truth about business models 1. Business models in practice 2. A brief history of business models 3. There are no magic bullets Part 2: Business model architecture 4. Looking at your raw materials 5. Collecting and connecting your stakeholders - Customers, users, suppliers, purchasers, competitors 6. Solid structure - creating and capturing value in business models 7. Crafting compelling stories- the power of business model narratives 8. The business model life cycle · First steps for entrepreneurs · Lean education for start-ups · Coherent storytelling for growing up · Rejuvenating mature firms Part 3: Business model change and innovation 9. When business models fail 10. Change and adaptation, Innovation and disruption 11. Back to the beginning Resources developed throughout the book: 25 brilliant business model tips 12 brilliant examples to highlight specific business model elements, designs, or innovations. Links to online resources, including free online business model design sites; Links to short third-party videos covering specific business model topics
£13.49
Pearson Education Smart Solution Book The
Book SynopsisDavid Cotton spent 21 years with Arthur Andersen and PwC before becoming a freelance trainer in 2002. He has worked in four continents and more than 40 countries, delivering a wide range of training in management, leadership, communication skills, business networking, confidence building, dealing with difficult people, change management, business strategy, coaching and mentoring. David's clients span local and national government and nearly every industry sector and include the European Parliament, European Commission and many of its agencies, the United Nations, BBC, Syrian Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Russian Federal Commission, Croatian MOD, PwC, most of the major Middle Eastern oil and gas companies, Manchester Business School and many others. He has published scores of articles and more than a dozen books, including Key Management Development Models (FT Publishing, 2015).Trade Review“The essential guide for any problem solving situation. Effective, practical and very accessible. Highly recommended.” Chris Garthwaite, CEO CGA Consulting "There isn't a single individual or organisation that could fail to benefit from the many practical approaches to problem-solving in this book. Everyone should read it!” Andrew Hilton, Managing Director, Corporate Training Partnerships Ltd “F. Durrenmatt says 'What concerns everyone, can only be solved by everyone' - and David's book is the practical guide to getting everyone fully engaged with a creative technique to solve any of your challenges.” Peter Schwanh™ußer, Partner, papilio ag, ZurichTable of ContentsAbout the author Acknowledgements Introduction Part 1 - Which tools to use and when Tools for broad problem areas Tools for specific problems Part 2 - Problem solving essentials Barriers to problem solving Framing a problem Stages in problem solving Preparation for group problem solving Equipment needed Part 3 - Problem solving techniques for individuals and small groups 1. Force field analysis and graphical force field analysis 2. Tough questions 3. Ritual dissent (and ritual assent) 4. Brain-friendly brainstorming 5. Reverse brainstorming 6. Procrastination 7. Cartesian logic 8. Brainwriting 9. Individual and collective mind mapping 10. Structured walkthroughs 11. Life through a lens 12. Nominal group technique 13. GROW for problem-solving 14. Head/Heart-Push/Pull 15. Osborne-Parnes critical problem solving process 16. Appreciative inquiry 17. Competitive ideas 18. Why not? 19. MUSE 20. Ishikawa fishbone diagrams 21. Deming’s PDSA Cycle (The ‘Shewhart Cycle’) 22. 3D stakeholder mapping 23. Two words technique 24. The association grid 25. Delphi technique 26. Lotus blossom technique 27. Photographic associations 28. Random word technique 29. Challenging assumptions 30. Metaphorical problem-solving 31. Who else has solved this problem? 32. How-How? 33. The 5 Whys/Question Everything 34. Jelly Baby Tree 35. Future shock 36. What if? 37. What if we didn’t? 38. Reframing 39. Ripple effect (systems thinking) 40. What I need from you 41. Concentration diagrams 42. Pareto analysis – simplified version 43. Solution effect analysis 44. The work map 45. Competing values framework 46. Timelining 47. One question 48. Peer assist 49. Action learning 50. Story circles 51. Swim Lane diagrams (Rummler-Brache diagrams) Part 4 - Large group problem solving techniques 52. Crawford’s Slip 53. Charrette Procedure 54. Starbursting 55. Open space 56. World café 57. Pro-action cafe Part 5 - Problem solving business games When and how to use business games 58. Retirement speeches 59. Convince me 60. Evolution 61. It’s in the news 62. The trial 63. Tortoise and hare 64. Art gallery 65. Proverbial problem solving 66. There are no rules 67. Documentary 68. Pitch Perfect Part 6 – Sharing and implementing solutions Sharing solutions Implementing solutions
£16.14
Pearson Education Limited Introduction to Materials Management Global
Book SynopsisTable of ContentsPreface 1. Introduction to Materials Management 2. Production Planning System 3. Master Scheduling 4. Material Requirements Planning 5. Capacity Management 6. Production Activity Control 7. Purchasing 8. Forecasting and Demand Management 9. Inventory Fundamentals 10. Order Quantities 11. Independent Demand Ordering Systems 12. Physical Inventory and Warehouse Management 13. Physical Distribution 14. Products and Processes 15. Lean Production 16. Total Quality Management Readings Index
£67.14
John Wiley & Sons Inc Quantitative Finance For Dummies
Book SynopsisTable of ContentsIntroduction 1 About This Book 1 Foolish Assumptions 2 Icons Used in This Book 3 Where to Go from Here 3 Part 1: Getting Started With Quantitative Finance 5 Chapter 1: Quantitative Finance Unveiled 7 Defining Quantitative Finance 8 Summarising the mathematics 8 Pricing, managing and trading 9 Meeting the market participants 9 Walking like a drunkard 10 Knowing that almost nothing isn’t completely nothing 11 Recognising irrational exuberance 14 Wielding Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction 15 Going beyond cash 17 Inventing new contracts 18 Analysing and Describing Market Behaviour 20 Measuring jumpy prices 20 Keeping your head while using lots of data 21 Valuing your options 21 Managing Risk 22 Hedging and speculating 22 Generating income 23 Building portfolios and reducing risk 23 Computing, Algorithms and Markets 24 Seeing the signal in the noise 24 Keeping it simple 25 Looking at the finer details of markets 25 Trading at higher frequency 26 Chapter 2: Understanding Probability and Statistics 27 Figuring Probability by Flipping a Coin 28 Playing a game 31 Flipping more coins 32 Defining Random Variables 33 Using random variables 34 Building distributions with random variables 35 Introducing Some Important Distributions 38 Working with a binomial distribution 39 Recognising the Gaussian, or normal, distribution 40 Describing real distributions 41 Chapter 3: Taking a Look at Random Behaviours 45 Setting Up a Random Walk 45 Stepping in just two directions 47 Getting somewhere on your walk 48 Taking smaller and smaller steps 49 Averaging with the Central Limit Theorem 50 Moving Like the Stock Market 53 Generating Random Numbers on a Computer 54 Getting random with Excel 55 Using the central limit theorem again 58 Simulating Random Walks 58 Moving Up a Gear 60 Working a stochastic differential equation 60 Expanding from the origin 61 Reverting to the Mean 62 Part 2: Tackling Financial Instruments 65 Chapter 4: Sizing Up Interest Rates, Shares and Bonds 67 Explaining Interest 68 Compounding your interest 68 Compounding continuously 69 Sharing in Profits and Growth 71 Taking the Pulse of World Markets 72 Defining Bonds and Bond Jargon 74 Coupon-bearing bonds 75 Zeroing in on yield 76 Cleaning up prices 78 Learning to like LIBOR 79 Plotting the yield curve 80 Swapping between Fixed and Floating Rates 81 Chapter 5: Exploring Options 85 Examining a Variety of Options 86 Starting with plain vanilla options 86 Aiming for a simple, binary option 87 Branching out with more exotic options 87 Reading Financial Data 88 Seeing your strike price 88 Abbreviating trading information 89 Valuing time 89 Getting Paid when Your Option Expires 90 Using Options in Practice 92 Hedging your risk 92 Placing bets on markets 93 Writing options 94 Earning income from options 94 Distinguishing European, American and other options 95 Trading Options On and Off Exchanges 96 Relating the Price of Puts and Calls 96 Chapter 6: Trading Risk with Futures 99 Surveying Future Contracts 99 Trading the futures market 101 Marking to market and margin accounts 101 Dealing in commodity futures 102 Index futures 105 Interest rate futures 106 Seeing into the Future 107 Paying in cash now 108 Connecting futures and spot prices 109 Checking trading volume 110 Looking along the forward curve 110 Rolling a Position 112 Keeping a consistent position 113 Adjusting backwards 113 Converging Futures to the Spot Price 114 Using Futures Creatively 115 Calendar spreads 116 Commodity spreads 116 Seasonality in Futures Prices 117 Part 3: Investigating and Describing Market Behaviour 119 Chapter 7: Reading The Market’s Mood: Volatility 121 Defining Volatility 122 Using Historical Data 124 Weighting the data equally 124 Weighting returns 125 Shrinking Time Using a Square Root 127 Comparing Volatility Calculations 128 Estimating Volatility by Statistical Means 132 The symmetric GARCH model 132 The leverage effect 134 Going Beyond Simple Volatility Models 135 Stochastic volatility 135 Regime switching 136 Estimating Future Volatility with Term Structures 137 Chapter 8: Analysing All the Data 139 Data Smoothing 139 Putting data in bins 140 Smoothing data with kernels 143 Using moving averages as filters 147 Estimating More Distributions 149 Mixing Gaussian distributions 149 Going beyond one dimension 150 Modelling Non-Normal Returns 151 Testing and visualising non-normality 151 Maximising expectations 153 Chapter 9: Analysing Data Matrices: Principal Components 159 Reducing the Amount of Data 160 Understanding collinearity 163 Standardising data 166 Brushing up some maths 167 Decomposing data matrices into principal components 170 Calculating principal components 173 Checking your model with cross- validation 174 Applying PCA to Yield Curves 177 Using PCA to Build Models 180 Identifying clusters of data 180 Principal components regression 181 Part 4: Option Pricing 183 Chapter 10: Examining the Binomial and Black-Scholes Pricing Models 185 Looking at a Simple Portfolio with No Arbitrage 186 Pricing in a Single Step 187 Entering the world of risk neutral 188 Calculating the parameters 191 Branching Out in Pricing an Option 192 Building a tree of asset prices 192 Building a tree of option prices by working backwards 192 Pricing an American option 194 Making Assumptions about Option Pricing 195 Introducing Black-Scholes – The Most Famous Equation in Quantitative Finance 196 Solving the Black-Scholes Equation 199 Properties of the Black-Scholes Solutions 202 Generalising to Dividend-Paying Stocks 204 Defining other Options 205 Valuing Options Using Simulations 206 Chapter 11: Using the Greeks in the Black-Scholes Model 209 Using the Black-Scholes Formulae 210 Hedging Class 211 That’s Greek to Me: Explaining the Greek Maths Symbols 213 Delta 213 Dynamic hedging and gamma 216 Theta 218 Rho 219 Vega 219 Relating the Greeks 220 Rebalancing a Portfolio 220 Troubleshooting Model Risk 221 Chapter 12: Gauging Interest-Rate Derivatives 223 Looking at the Yield Curve and Forward Rates 224 Forward rate agreements 227 Interest-rate derivatives 228 Black 76 model 230 Bond pricing equations 232 The market price of risk 234 Modelling the Interest-Rate 234 The Ho Lee model 234 The one-factor Vasicek model 235 Arbitrage free models 237 Part 5: Risk and Portfolio Management 239 Chapter 13: Managing Market Risk 241 Investing in Risky Assets 241 Stopping Losses and other Good Ideas 244 Hedging Schemes 245 Betting without Losing Your Shirt 247 Evaluating Outcomes with Utility Functions 249 Seeking certainty 250 Modelling attitudes to risk 251 Using the Covariance Matrix to Measure Market Risk 253 Estimating parameters 254 Shrinking the covariance matrix 254 Chapter 14: Comprehending Portfolio Theory 257 Diversifying Portfolios 258 Minimising Portfolio Variance 259 Using portfolio budget constraints 260 Doing the maths for returns and correlations 262 Building an efficient frontier 266 Dealing with poor estimates 267 Capital Asset Pricing Model 268 Assessing Portfolio Performance 270 Sharpe ratio 270 Drawdowns 272 Going for risk parity 273 Chapter 15: Measuring Potential Losses: Value at Risk (VaR) 275 Controlling Risk in Your Portfolio 276 Defining Volatility and the VaR Measure 277 Constructing VaR using the Covariance Matrix 279 Calculating a simple cash portfolio 280 Using the covariance matrix 281 Estimating Volatilities and Correlations 282 Simulating the VaR 283 Using historical data 283 Spinning a Monte Carlo simulation 284 Validating Your Model 285 Backtesting 285 Stress testing and the Basel Accord 286 Including the Average VaR 286 Estimating Tail Risk with Extreme Value Theory 289 Part 6: Market Trading and Strategy 291 Chapter 16: Forecasting Markets 293 Measuring with Technical Analysis 294 Constructing candlesticks 294 Relying on relative strength 295 Checking momentum indicators 298 Blending the stochastic indicator 299 Breaking out of channels 300 Making Predictions Using Market Variables 301 Understanding regression models 302 Forecasting with regression models 304 Predicting from Past Values 306 Defining and calculating autocorrelation 306 Getting to know autocorrelation models 308 Moving average models 309 Mentioning kernel regression 311 Chapter 17: Fitting Models to Data 313 Maximising the Likelihood 314 Minimising least squares 316 Using chi-squared 318 Comparing models with Akaike 318 Fitting and Overfitting 319 Applying Occam’s Razor 322 Detecting Outliers 322 The Curse of Dimensionality 324 Seeing into the Future 325 Backtesting 325 Out-of-sample validation 327 Chapter 18: Markets in Practice 329 Auctioning Assets 330 Selling on eBay 331 Auctioning debt by the US Treasury 332 Balancing supply and demand with double-sided auctions 333 Looking at the Price Impact of a Trade 336 Being a Market Maker and Coping with Bid-Ask Spreads 337 Exploring the meaning of liquidity 338 Making use of information 339 Calculating the bid-ask spread 342 Trading Factors and Distributions 343 Part 7: The Part Of Tens 345 Chapter 19: Ten Key Ideas of Quantitative Finance 347 If Markets Were Truly Efficient Nobody Would Research Them 347 The Gaussian Distribution is Very Helpful but Doesn’t Always Apply 348 Don’t Ignore Trading Costs 349 Know Your Contract 349 Understanding Volatility is Key 350 You Can Price Options by Building Them from Cash and Stock 350 Finance Isn’t Like Physics 351 Diversification is the One True Free Lunch 351 Find Tools to Help Manage All the Data 352 Don’t Get Fooled by Complex Models 353 Chapter 20: Ten Ways to Ace Your Career in Quantitative Finance 355 Follow Financial Markets 355 Read Some Classic Technical Textbooks 356 Read Some Non-technical Books 356 Take a Professional Course 357 Attend Networking Meetings and Conferences 357 Participate in Online Communities 358 Study a Programming Language 358 Go Back to School 359 Apply for that Hedge Fund or Bank Job 359 Take Time to Rest Up and Give Back 359 Glossary 361 Index 369
£18.39
John Wiley & Sons Inc Influencer Marketing For Dummies
Book SynopsisThe easy way to get 'in' with influencer marketing Are you a marketing guru looking to stay at the top of your game? Then you need to be in the know on influencer marketing.Table of ContentsIntroduction 1 Part I: Getting Started with Influencer Marketing 5 Chapter 1: Influencer Marketing 101 7 Chapter 2: Digging Deeper into Influencer Marketing 25 Part II: Identifying Influencers 39 Chapter 3: The Best Influencers: The Power of Women on Your Bottom Line 41 Chapter 4: The New Rules of Engagement 51 Chapter 5: Outsourcing Influencer Marketing 65 Part III: The Main Platforms for Influencer Marketing 71 Chapter 6: Blog Influencers 73 Chapter 7: Instagram Influencers 89 Chapter 8: Twitter Influencers 103 Chapter 9: Facebook Influencers 117 Chapter 10: Pinterest Influencers 127 Chapter 11: Video Influencers 139 Part IV: Measuring Your Success 153 Chapter 12: Meeting Metrics 155 Chapter 13: Integrating Influencer Marketing with Your Sales Funnel 167 Chapter 14: Using the Type of Marketing You Need: Influencer or Direct Marketing 175 Chapter 15: Setting and Measuring the Right Goals for Your Influencer Marketing Campaigns 185 Part V: Creating Stellar Influencer Marketing Campaigns 193 Chapter 16: The Six Secrets to Influencer Marketing Success 195 Chapter 17: Putting It All Together 207 Chapter 18: Five Pros Doing It Right 215 Part VI: The Part of Tens 225 Chapter 19: Ten Reasons Influencer Marketing Campaigns Fail 227 Chapter 20: Ten Online Resources for Influencer Marketing Information 237 Appendix: Federal Trade Commission Guidelines 243 Index 249
£17.84
HarperCollins Publishers The Five Giants
Book SynopsisAn accessible and entertaining narrative history of the establishment, development and unravelling of the British Welfare State now fully revised to cover Blair's first term. Lively writing in the style of Peter Hennessy.Giant Want. Giant Disease. Giant Ignorance. Giant Squalor. And the insidious Giant Idleness, which destroys wealth and corrupts men. These were evils to be vanquished by the postwar reconstruction of Britain. Timmins' book recaptures brilliantly the high hopes of the period in which the Welfare State began to be created, and conveys the cranky zeal of its inventor, William Beveridge. The onslaught on the five Giants was the work of five gargantuan programmes that made up the core of Beveridge's Welfare State. These were social security, health, education, housing and a policy of full employment. It is notoriously difficult to write about such subjects and keep the reader reading, but Timmins performs wonders of narrative clarity, anecdote and human detail in a book thTrade Review‘A splendid book – knowledgeable, readable and fair.’ Sunday Telegraph ‘A tour de force – thoroughly researched and vividly written…a masterpiece.’ Sunday Times ‘Extraordinarily comprehensive without ever being incomprehensible.’ Roy Hattersley, Independent
£14.39
John Wiley & Sons Inc Organization
Book SynopsisThe definitive organization management text for executives and aspiring business leaders Organization: Contemporary Principles and Practices, Second Edition is the completely updated and revised landmark guide to macro organization theory and design, fully grounded in current international practice.Trade Review“John Child excels once again at connecting the past, present and future of organizational thought and managerial practice. By deepening its theoretical foundations and expanding its discussion of 21st-century topics, this second edition is an exciting and insightful journey for faculty and students alike.” —Guido Möllering, Professor of Organization and Management, Jacobs University Bremen “This is an outstanding contribution to literature from a world class academic. His contribution to the field of organizational studies is without parallel and this work is a monumental contribution to the global literature on organizational behavior.” —Sir Cary Cooper, Lancaster University Management School “John Child has done it again. This accessible and scholarly book brings the analysis of organizational forms where it belongs at the very centre of the fields of organization and strategy.” —Andrew Pettigrew, Saïd Business School, Oxford University “Conventional, sluggish bureaucracies are being introduced to a new structural vocabulary as they attempt to respond to the challenge of globalization. John Child provides a lucid and engaging guide to this changing world of organizations.” —W. Richard Scott, Department of Sociology, Stanford UniversityTable of ContentsPreface to Second Edition viii Preface from the First Edition ix Part I The Broad Picture 1 Chapter 1 Organization and Its Importance 3 Chapter 2 Perspectives on Organizational Design until Recent Times 27 Chapter 3 New Conditions, New Organization 53 Part II New Internal Forms 85 Chapter 4 Simpler Structures – Reducing Hierarchy 87 Chapter 5 Achieving Integration 109 Chapter 6 Control 143 Chapter 7 Questions of Reward 171 Chapter 8 Payment Systems 191 Part III New Network Forms 215 Chapter 9 Outsourcing and Offshoring 217 Chapter 10 Virtual Organization 241 Chapter 11 Strategic Alliances 269 Chapter 12 Organizing Across Borders 291 Part IV Achieving Effective Organizations 331 Chapter 13 Managing Organizational Change 333 Chapter 14 Organizing for Learning 371 Chapter 15 Generating and Utilizing Trust 405 Chapter 16 Corporate Governance in New Organizational Forms 427 Part V Designing Organizations for the 21st Century 451 Chapter 17 Meeting Strategic Business Needs 453 Chapter 18 Meeting Strategic Social Needs 477 Author Index 497 Subject Index 507
£31.49
John Wiley & Sons Inc Handbook of Corporate Equity Derivatives and
Book SynopsisEquity strategies are closely guarded secrets and as such, there is very little written about how investors and corporate can utilise equity vehicles as part of their growth strategies.Table of ContentsPreface xvii About the Author xix 1 Main Strategic Equity Derivative Instruments 1 1.1 Equity Forwards 1 1.1.1 Equity Forwards 1 1.1.2 Example of a Cash-settled Equity Forward on a Stock 2 1.1.3 Example of a Physically Settled Equity Forward on a Stock 3 1.1.4 Calculating the Forward Price of a Stock 4 1.2 Equity Swaps 6 1.2.1 Total Return Equity Swaps 6 1.2.2 Price Return Equity Swaps 7 1.2.3 Case Study: Physically Settled Total Return Equity Swap on Deutsche Telekom 7 1.2.4 Case Study: Cash-settled Total Return Equity Swap on Deutsche Telekom 12 1.2.5 Determination of the Initial Price 15 1.2.6 Determination of the Settlement Price 16 1.2.7 Equity Notional Resets 17 1.2.8 Case Study: Total Return Equity Swap on EuroStoxx 50 17 1.2.9 Compo Equity Swaps 21 1.2.10 Quanto Equity Swaps 23 1.2.11 Uses of Equity Swaps 25 1.3 Stock Lending and Borrowing 26 1.3.1 Stock Lending and Borrowing 26 1.3.2 Stock Lending/Borrowing Transaction Flows 27 1.3.3 Counterparty Credit Risk 28 1.3.4 Advantages of Stock Lending and Borrowing 29 1.3.5 Drawbacks of Stock Lending and Borrowing 29 1.4 Call and Put Options 30 1.4.1 Call Options 30 1.4.2 Put Options 33 1.4.3 European vs. American Style 36 1.4.4 Time Value vs. Intrinsic Value 36 1.4.5 In, At or Out-of-the-money 37 1.4.6 Variables that Influence an Option Price 38 1.4.7 Historical Volatility vs. Implied Volatility 40 1.4.8 Put–Call Parity 41 1.4.9 Options’ Sensitivities, the “Greeks” 42 1.4.10 Delta Hedging 44 1.4.11 Offsetting Dividend Risk 45 1.4.12 Adjustments to Option Terms Due to Other Corporate Actions 46 1.4.13 Volatility Smile 47 1.4.14 Implied Volatility Term Structure 48 1.4.15 Composite and Quanto Options 49 1.5 Dividend Swaps 50 1.5.1 Dividend Swaps 50 1.5.2 Applications of Dividend Swaps 50 1.5.3 Risks 52 1.5.4 Main Dates in a Dividend Distribution 52 1.5.5 Case Study: Single-stock Dividend Swap 52 1.5.6 Case Study: Index Dividend Swap 56 1.5.7 Pricing Implied Dividends 58 1.6 Variance Swaps and Volatility Swaps 58 1.6.1 Variance Swaps Product Description 59 1.6.2 Calculation of the Realized Volatility and the Realized Variance 61 1.6.3 Volatility Swaps Product Description 62 1.6.4 Volatility Swaps vs. Variance Swaps 63 1.6.5 Applications of Variance and Volatility Swaps 63 2 Equity Capital Markets Products 65 2.1 Main Equity Capital Markets Products 65 2.1.1 Capital Increase Products 65 2.1.2 Secondary Placement Products 66 2.1.3 Equity-linked Products 66 2.2 Initial Public Offerings 66 2.2.1 Product Description 66 2.2.2 Benefits of Going Public 67 2.2.3 Drawbacks of Going Public 67 2.2.4 The IPO Process 68 2.2.5 Phase 1: Preparation of the Company 68 2.2.6 Phase 2: Preparation of the Offering 69 2.2.7 Phase 3: Marketing of the Offering 75 2.2.8 Phase 4: Placement of the Offering 77 2.2.9 Key Success Factors Affecting an IPO 80 2.2.10 Key Risk Factors Affecting an IPO 81 2.2.11 Case Study: Visa’s IPO 82 2.3 Case Study: Google’s Dutch Auction IPO 85 2.4 Rights Issues (or Rights Offerings) 87 2.4.1 Product Description 87 2.4.2 Main Definitions of a Rights Issue 88 2.4.3 Advantages and Weaknesses of a Rights Issue 89 2.4.4 Rights Offerings Success Factors 90 2.4.5 Calculation of the TERP 90 2.4.6 Case Study: ING’s EUR 7.5 billion Rights Issue 91 2.5 Rights Issues of Convertible Bonds 95 2.5.1 Case Study: Banco Popolare Rights Issue of a Convertible Bond 95 2.6 Accelerated Book-Buildings 98 2.6.1 Product Description 98 2.6.2 Advantages and Weaknesses of an ABB 99 2.6.3 Estimating the Discount 99 2.6.4 Case Study: IPIC’s Disposal of 11.8% of Barclays 100 2.7 At the Market Offerings 100 2.7.1 Product Description 100 2.7.2 Case Study: US Treasury Placement of Citigroup Shares 101 3 Convertible Bonds and Mandatory Convertible Bonds 103 3.1 Introduction to Convertible Bonds 103 3.1.1 What are Convertible Bonds? 103 3.1.2 Convertible vs. Exchangeable Bonds – Exchange Property 104 3.2 Who Buys Convertible Bonds? 105 3.3 Convertible Bonds: The Issuer Perspective 106 3.4 Case Study: Infineon’s Convertible Bond 107 3.4.1 Main Terms of Infineon’s Convertible Bond 107 3.4.2 Conversion Price, Ratio, Premium and Lockout Period 108 3.4.3 Hard No Call Period, Hard Call and Soft Call Options 109 3.4.4 Put Rights 110 3.4.5 Additional Clauses: Cash Option, Cash Top-up, Lock-up Period, Tax Call 111 3.4.6 Value of a Convertible Bond at Maturity 112 3.4.7 Value of a Convertible Bond during its Life 112 3.5 Delta Share Repurchase Strategy 114 3.6 Mandatory Convertible Bonds 115 3.7 Rationale for Issuing Mandatory Convertibles 115 3.8 Rationale for Investing in Mandatory Convertibles 116 3.9 Fixed Parity Mandatory Convertibles 116 3.9.1 Case Study: Banco Santander’s Fixed Parity Mandatory Convertible 116 3.10 Variable Parity Mandatory Convertibles 118 3.11 Dividend Enhanced Convertible Securities 118 3.11.1 Conversion Mechanics of a DECS 118 3.11.2 Anatomy of a DECS 120 3.11.3 Embedded Derivatives in a DECS 121 3.11.4 Pricing a DECS 122 3.12 Case Study: UBS’s DECS 122 3.13 Special Clauses in Convertibles 124 3.13.1 Dividend Protection Clauses 124 3.13.2 Coupon Deferral Clauses 125 3.13.3 Call Option Make-whole Clauses 126 3.13.4 Change-of-control Make-whole Clauses 126 3.13.5 Clean-up Call Clauses 127 3.13.6 Net Share Settlement Clauses 127 3.14 Contingent Convertibles: FRESHES, CASHES and ECNS 127 3.14.1 Case Study: Fortis’s FRESH Instrument 128 3.14.2 Case Study: Unicredit’s CASHES Instrument 131 3.14.3 Case Study: Lloyds ECN 136 3.14.4 Case Study: Rabobank’s SCN 139 4 Strategic Equity Transactions around Convertible/Exchangeable Bonds 141 4.1 Issuing an Exchangeable with a Third-party Guarantee 141 4.1.1 Case Study: Controlinveste’s Exchangeable Bonds on Portugal Telecom 141 4.1.2 Transaction Overview 142 4.1.3 Dividend Swap and Transaction Flows during the First Four Years 143 4.1.4 Transaction Flows in Case of Exchanges or at Maturity 145 4.1.5 Exchange Property Pledge and other Security Mechanisms 146 4.1.6 Attractiveness of the Transaction to the Issuer and to BCP 147 4.2 Issuing a Convertible Through a Third Party 147 4.2.1 Case Study: Novartis LEPOs and Put Options with Deutsche Bank 147 4.2.2 Transaction Overview 147 4.2.3 Deutsche Bank’s Exposure to Novartis’s Stock Price 149 4.2.4 Effect of Deutsche Bank’s Zero-coupon Convertibles on the Exchange Price 151 4.2.5 Attractiveness of Deutsche Bank’s Zero-coupon Exchangeables to Investors 152 4.2.6 Advantages to Novartis and Relevance of a Call Right 152 4.3 Crystallizing a Gain in a Convertible Investment Through Warrants 153 4.3.1 Case Study: Richemont Warrants Issue on Back of Convertible Preference Shares 153 4.3.2 Warrants’ Terms 154 4.3.3 Analysis of R&R’s Position 154 4.3.4 Main Benefits to Richemont of the Warrants Issue 155 4.3.5 Effect on BAT’s Stock Price of the Warrants Issue 156 4.4 Monetizing a Stake with an Exchangeable Plus a Put 156 4.4.1 Case Study: Deutsche Bank’s Exchangeable into Brisa 156 4.4.2 Transaction Overview 157 4.4.3 Analysis of Deutsche Bank’s Overall Position 158 4.5 Increasing Likelihood of Conversion with a Call Spread 161 4.5.1 Case Study: Chartered Semiconductor’s Call Spread with Goldman Sachs 161 4.5.2 Goldman Sachs’s Overall Position 162 4.5.3 CSM’s Overall Position 163 4.5.4 Attractiveness of the Transaction to CSM 166 4.5.5 Additional Remarks 167 4.6 Decreasing Likelihood of Conversion with a Call Spread 169 4.6.1 Case Study: Microsoft’s Convertible Plus Call Spread 169 4.7 Double Issuance of Exchangeable Bonds 169 4.7.1 Case Study: ABC’s Double Exchangeable 169 4.8 Buying Back Conversion Rights 172 4.8.1 Case Study: Cap Gemini’s Repurchase of Conversion Right from Société Générale 172 4.9 Buying Back Convertible/Exchangeable Bonds 175 4.9.1 Case Study: TUI’s Convertible Bond 175 4.10 Pre-IPO Convertible Bonds 178 5 Hedging and Yield Enhancing Strategic Stakes 181 5.1 Hedging a Strategic Stake 181 5.1.1 Hedging with a Put Option 181 5.1.2 Hedging with a Put Spread 184 5.1.3 Hedging with a Collar 186 5.1.4 Hedging with a Put Spread Collar 188 5.1.5 Hedging with a Fly Put Spread 189 5.1.6 Hedging with a Knock-out Put 191 5.1.7 Summary of Main Hedging Strategies 193 5.1.8 Hedging with Ladder Puts 193 5.1.9 Hedging with Variable Premium and Variable Expiry Timer Puts 195 5.1.10 Hedging with Pay-later Puts 197 5.2 Yield Enhancement of a Strategic Stake 199 5.2.1 Lending the Stock 199 5.2.2 Selling Part of the Upside with a Call 200 5.2.3 Monetization of Dividend Optionality 202 5.2.4 Reduction of Dividend Withholding Taxes with a Stock Lending Strategy 204 5.2.5 Reduction of Dividend Withholding Taxes with a Converse Strategy 205 6 Disposal of Strategic Stakes 207 6.1 Most Common Disposal Strategies 207 6.1.1 Case Study Assumptions 207 6.1.2 Market Dribbling Out or Gradual Sale 208 6.2 Deterministic Disposal Strategies 209 6.2.1 ABB – Block Trade 209 6.2.2 Mandatory Exchangeable Bond 211 6.2.3 Indirect Issue of an Exchangeable Bond 211 6.3 Enhanced Disposal Strategies 212 6.3.1 Direct Issue of an Exchangeable Bond 213 6.3.2 Sale of a Call Option 214 6.3.3 One-speed Range Accrual 216 6.3.4 Double-speed Range Accrual 220 6.3.5 Double-speed Range Accrual with Final Call 221 6.3.6 Double-speed Range Accrual with Deduction 222 6.3.7 Double-speed Range Accrual with Knock-out 222 6.4 Derecognition Strategies 224 6.4.1 Sale + Cash-settled Equity Swap 224 6.4.2 Physically Settled Equity Swap + Call Option 227 6.5 Combination of ABB and a Call Option/Exchangeable 229 6.5.1 Case Study: Germany’s Disposal of Fraport with JP Morgan’s Collaboration 229 7 Strategic Equity Derivatives in Mergers and Acquisitions 235 7.1 Keeping Voting Rights in Proxy Contests 237 7.1.1 Case Study: Montalban Partners’ Disposal of Gold International 237 7.2 Submitting Resolutions to an AGM 239 7.2.1 Case Study: Laxey’s Stock Lending Transaction 240 7.3 Increasing Likelihood of Success of a Merger Arbitrage Position 242 7.3.1 Case Study: Perry’s Equity Swaps with Bear Stearns and Goldman Sachs 242 7.4 Avoiding Mandatory Offer Rules 247 7.4.1 Case Study: Agnelli Family Equity Swap with Merrill Lynch 247 7.5 Increasing Likelihood of Success of a Takeover 251 7.5.1 Case Study: Unipol’s Takeover of BNL and Call/Put Combination with Deutsche Bank 251 8 Stock Options Plans Hedging 257 8.1 Main Equity-based Compensation Plans 257 8.1.1 Main Equity-based Compensation Plans 257 8.1.2 Terminology of Stock Option Plans and SARs 258 8.2 IFRS Accounting for Equity-based Compensation Plans 259 8.2.1 Accounting for Stock Options Plans 261 8.2.2 Accounting for Stock Appreciation Rights 263 8.3 Case Study: ABC’s ESOP and SAR 265 8.3.1 Main Terms of ABC’s ESOP and SAR 265 8.3.2 Accounting for ABC’s ESOP 266 8.3.3 Accounting for ABC’s SAR 270 8.4 Main ESOP/SAR Hedging Strategies 273 8.4.1 Underlying Risks in ESOPs and SARs 273 8.4.2 Hedging with Treasury Shares 274 8.4.3 Hedging with Equity Swaps 275 8.4.4 Hedging a SAR with an Enhanced Equity Swap 279 8.4.5 Hedging with Standard Call Options 280 8.4.6 Hedging with Auto Call Options 282 8.4.7 Hedging with Timer Call Options 282 8.5 HSBC’s Performance Share Plan 283 8.5.1 Terms of HSBC’s Performance Share Plan 283 8.5.2 Accounting for the Plan 284 8.5.3 Hedging the Plan 285 9 Equity Financings 287 9.1 Case Study: Equity Collateralized Bond 287 9.1.1 Bond Terms 287 9.1.2 Main Documents of the Financing 288 9.1.3 Parties to an Equity Financing 289 9.1.4 Accounts in an Equity Financing 290 9.1.5 Credit Enhancement Tools 291 9.1.6 Early Termination Events 292 9.1.7 Events of Default 295 9.1.8 Syndicating the Equity Financing with a Credit Default Swap 297 9.1.9 Recourse vs. Non-recourse Equity Financings 299 9.2 Sale + Equity Swap 300 9.2.1 Transaction Description 300 9.2.2 Equity Swap Terms 300 9.2.3 Equity Swap Flows 305 9.2.4 Advantages and Weaknesses 307 9.3 Prepaid Forward + Equity Swap + Pledge 308 9.3.1 Product Description 308 9.3.2 Equity Derivatives Terms 308 9.3.3 Transaction Flows 314 9.3.4 Advantages and Weaknesses 316 9.4 Repo Financing 316 9.4.1 Product Description 316 9.5 Stock Loan Financing 317 9.5.1 Product Description 317 9.6 Put Financing 318 9.6.1 Product Description 318 9.6.2 Advantages and Weaknesses 319 9.7 Collared Financing 320 9.7.1 Product Description 320 9.7.2 Advantages and Weaknesses 321 9.8 Revolving Margin Loan Facilities 322 9.8.1 Case Study: Oil SPE’s Revolving Margin Loan Facility 322 10 Share Buybacks and Other Transactions on Treasury Shares 327 10.1 Open Market Repurchase Programs 327 10.2 Accelerated Repurchase Programs 329 10.2.1 Case Study: Hewlett Packard’s ASR with Merrill Lynch 329 10.3 VWAP-Linked Repurchase Programs 332 10.3.1 Execution on a Best Effort Basis 332 10.3.2 Execution on a Guaranteed Basis 333 10.3.3 Advantages and Weaknesses of a VWAP-linked Strategy 333 10.3.4 Execution at a Discounted VWAP 334 10.3.5 Execution at a Capped VWAP 337 10.4 Prepaid Collared Repurchase Programs 338 10.4.1 Case Study: Hewlett Packard’s PCRP with BNP Paribas 339 10.5 Deep-in-the-money Call Purchase 340 10.5.1 Case Study: ABC’s Acquisition of a Deep-in-the-money Call Option 341 10.6 Asian Call Purchase 343 10.7 Publicly Offered Repurchase Programs 345 10.7.1 Case Study: Corporacion Dermoestetica’s Public Offer to Acquire Own Shares 345 10.8 Public Offer of Put Options 346 10.8.1 Case Study: Swisscom’s Public Offer of Put Options 346 10.9 Private Sale of a Put Option 347 10.10 Acquisition of Shares with a Range Accrual 348 10.10.1 One-speed Range Accrual 348 10.10.2 Double-speed Range Accrual 352 10.10.3 Double-speed Range Accrual with Final Put 354 10.11 Other Transactions on Treasury Shares 355 10.11.1 Case Study: ABC’s Restructuring of Call on Own Shares 355 10.11.2 Case Study: Gilead’s Share Repurchase Program Financed with Convertible Bonds 361 11 Bank Regulatory Capital 365 11.1 An Overview of Basel III 365 11.1.1 Precedent Bank Regulatory Capital Accords 365 11.1.2 The Capital Ratio 366 11.1.3 Bank Regulatory Capital 367 11.1.4 Risk-weighted Assets 367 11.2 Tier 1 Capital 369 11.2.1 Common Equity Tier 1 Capital 369 11.2.2 Additional Tier 1 Capital 373 11.3 Tier 2 Capital 376 11.3.1 Criteria for Inclusion in Tier 2 Capital 376 11.3.2 Trigger Conditions for Hybrid Instruments 379 11.4 Deductions from Common Equity Tier 1 Capital 380 11.4.1 Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets (Except Mortgage Servicing Rights) 380 11.4.2 Deferred Tax Assets 380 11.4.3 Cash Flow Hedge Reserve 382 11.4.4 Shortfall of the Stock of Provisions to Expected Losses 383 11.4.5 Gain-on-sale Related to Securitization Transactions 383 11.4.6 Gains and Losses on Fair Valued Own Liabilities due to Changes in Own Credit Risk 383 11.4.7 Defined Benefit Pension Fund Assets and Liabilities 383 11.4.8 Treasury Stock 385 11.4.9 Reciprocal Stakes in Unconsolidated Financial Companies 385 11.4.10 Less than 10% Stakes in Unconsolidated Financial Companies 385 11.4.11 Significant Stakes in Unconsolidated Financial Companies 387 11.4.12 Combined Deduction of Significant Investments in Unconsolidated Financial Entities, MSRs and DTAs 388 11.4.13 Basel II 50/50 Deductions 389 11.5 Other Capital Buffers 389 11.5.1 Capital Conservation Buffer 389 11.5.2 Countercyclical Buffer 391 11.6 Transitional Arrangements 392 11.6.1 Transitional Period 392 11.6.2 Capital Instruments Failing Criteria for Eligibility in Capital 393 11.7 Leverage Ratio 393 11.8 Liquidity Coverage Ratio 394 11.9 Net Stable Funding Ratio 396 11.10 Case Study: Calculation of Minority Interests 397 11.11 Case Study: Creating Minority Interests 399 11.12 Case Study: Reducing Risk Weighting 401 11.13 Case Study: Releasing Common Equity 401 11.14 Case Study: Reducing an Unconsolidated Financial Stake 403 11.15 Case Study: Commerzbank’s Capital Structure Enhancement with Credit Suisse 404 Bibliography 407 Index 409
£58.50
John Wiley & Sons Inc Chart Patterns
Book SynopsisTake chart patterns beyond buy triggers to increase profits and make better trades Chart Patterns: After the Buy goes beyond simple chart pattern identification to show what comes next. Author and stock trader Thomas Bulkowski is one of the industry''s most respected authorities in technical analysis; for this book, he examined over 43,000 chart patterns to discover what happens after you buy the stock. His findings are detailed here, to help you select better buy signals, avoid disaster, and make more money. Bulkowski analyzed thousands of trades to identify common paths a stock takes after the breakout from a chart pattern. By combining those paths, he discovered the typical routes a stock takes, which he calls configurations. Match your chart to one of those configurations and you will know, before you buy, how your trade will likely perform. Now you can avoid potentially disastrous trades to focus on the big winners. Each chapter illustrates theTable of ContentsPreface ix Acknowledgments xi About the Author xiii Chapter 1 Big m 1 Chapter 2 Big W 27 Chapter 3 Broadening Bottoms 53 Chapter 4 Broadening Tops 85 Chapter 5 Double Bottoms 119 Chapter 6 Double Tops 147 Chapter 7 Earnings Miss 169 Chapter 8 Flags and Pennants 185 Chapter 9 Head-and-Shoulders Bottoms 205 Chapter 10 Head-and-Shoulders Tops 231 Chapter 11 Measured Move Down 255 Chapter 12 Measured Move Up 267 Chapter 13 Price Mirrors 277 Chapter 14 Price Mountains 283 Chapter 15 Rectangles 291 Chapter 16 Reversals and Continuations 325 Chapter 17 Straight-Line Run Down 333 Chapter 18 Straight-Line Run Up 347 Chapter 19 Tops and Bottoms 361 Chapter 20 Trends and Countertrends 371 Chapter 21 Triangle Apex and Turning Points 383 Chapter 22 Triangles, Ascending 391 Chapter 23 Triangles, Descending 427 Chapter 24 Triangles, Symmetrical 465 Chapter 25 Vertical Run Down 495 Chapter 26 Vertical Run Up 509 Glossary 523 Index 531
£37.50
John Wiley & Sons Inc Intermittent Demand Forecasting
Book SynopsisCovering the work in intermittent demand forecasting and the research findings in the following topics: time series (parametric) methods; bootstrapping, both parametric and non-parametric; causal models; and neural networks, this book shows how these methods may be implemented and how they may complement existing operational functions, and more.Trade ReviewIntermittent demand forecasting may seem like a specialized area but actually is at the center of sustainability efforts to consume less and to waste less. Boylan and Syntetos have done a superb job in showing how improvements in inventory management are pivotal in achieving this. Their book covers both the theory and practice of intermittent demand forecasting and my prediction is that it will fast become the ‘bible’ of the field. Spyros Makridakis, Professor, University of Nicosia, and Director, Institute for the Future and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center (MOFC) We have been able to support our clients by adopting many of the ideas discussed in this excellent book, and implementing them in our software. I am sure that these ideas will be equally helpful for other supply chain software vendors and for companies wanting to update and upgrade their capabilities in forecasting and inventory management. Suresh Acharya, VP, Research and Development, Blue Yonder As product variants proliferate and the pace of business quickens, more and more items have intermittent demand. Boylan and Syntetos have long been leaders in extending forecasting and inventory methods to accommodate this new reality. Their book gathers and clarifies decades of research in this area, and explains how practitioners can exploit this knowledge to make their operations more efficient and effective. Thomas R. Willemain, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic InstituteTable of ContentsPreface xix Glossary xxi About the Companion Website xxiii 1 Economic and Environmental Context 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Economic and Environmental Benefits 3 1.2.1 After-sales Industry 3 1.2.2 Defence Sector 4 1.2.3 Economic Benefits 5 1.2.4 Environmental Benefits 5 1.2.5 Summary 6 1.3 Intermittent Demand Forecasting Software 6 1.3.1 Early Forecasting Software 6 1.3.2 Developments in Forecasting Software 6 1.3.3 Open Source Software 7 1.3.4 Summary 7 1.4 About this Book 7 1.4.1 Optimality and Robustness 7 1.4.2 Business Context 8 1.4.3 Structure of the Book 9 1.4.4 Current and Future Applications 10 1.4.5 Summary 10 1.5 Chapter Summary 11 Technical Note 11 2 Inventory Management and Forecasting 13 2.1 Introduction 13 2.2 Scheduling and Forecasting 13 2.2.1 Material Requirements Planning (MRP) 13 2.2.2 Dependent and Independent Demand Items 14 2.2.3 Make to Stock 15 2.2.4 Summary 15 2.3 Should an Item Be Stocked at All? 15 2.3.1 Stock/Non-Stock Decision Rules 16 2.3.2 Historical or Forecasted Demand? 18 2.3.3 Summary 18 2.4 Inventory Control Requirements 19 2.4.1 How Should Stock Records be Maintained? 19 2.4.2 When are Forecasts Required for Stocking Decisions? 22 2.4.3 Summary 24 2.5 Overview of Stock Rules 25 2.5.1 Continuous Review Systems 25 2.5.2 Periodic Review Systems 26 2.5.3 Periodic Review Policies 28 2.5.4 Variations of the (R, S) Periodic Policy 29 2.5.5 Summary 30 2.6 Chapter Summary 30 Technical Notes 31 3 Service Level Measures 33 3.1 Introduction 33 3.2 Judgemental Ordering 34 3.2.1 Rules of Thumb for the Order-Up-To Level 34 3.2.2 Judgemental Adjustment of Orders 34 3.2.3 Summary 35 3.3 Aggregate Financial and Service Targets 35 3.3.1 Aggregate Financial Targets 36 3.3.2 Service Level Measures 36 3.3.3 Relationships Between Service Level Measures 38 3.3.4 Summary 39 3.4 Service Measures at SKU Level 39 3.4.1 Cost Factors 39 3.4.2 Understanding of Service Level Measures 40 3.4.3 Potential Service Level Measures 40 3.4.4 Choice of Service Level Measure 41 3.4.5 Summary 42 3.5 Calculating Cycle Service Levels 42 3.5.1 Distribution of Demand Over One Time Period 43 3.5.2 Cycle Service Levels Based on All Cycles 44 3.5.3 Cycle Service Levels Based on Cycles with Demand 45 3.5.4 Summary 47 3.6 Calculating Fill Rates 48 3.6.1 Unit Fill Rates 48 3.6.2 Fill Rates: Standard Formula 49 3.6.3 Fill Rates: Sobel’s Formula 51 3.6.4 Summary 53 3.7 Setting Service Level Targets 53 3.7.1 Responsibility for Target Setting 53 3.7.2 Trade-off Between Service and Cost 54 3.7.3 Setting SKU Level Service Targets 55 3.7.4 Summary 56 3.8 Chapter Summary 56 Technical Note 57 4 Demand Distributions 59 4.1 Introduction 59 4.2 Estimation of Demand Distributions 60 4.2.1 Empirical Demand Distributions 60 4.2.2 Fitted Demand Distributions 62 4.2.3 Summary 64 4.3 Criteria for Demand Distributions 64 4.3.1 Empirical Evidence for Goodness of Fit 64 4.3.2 Further Criteria 64 4.3.3 Summary 65 4.4 Poisson Distribution 65 4.4.1 Shape of the Poisson Distribution 66 4.4.2 Summary 67 4.5 Poisson Demand Distribution 67 4.5.1 Poisson: A Priori Grounds 67 4.5.2 Poisson: Ease of Calculation 67 4.5.3 Poisson: Flexibility 68 4.5.4 Poisson: Goodness of Fit 69 4.5.5 Testing for Goodness of Fit 70 4.5.6 Summary 72 4.6 Incidence and Occurrence 72 4.6.1 Demand Incidence 72 4.6.2 Demand Occurrence 73 4.6.3 Summary 74 4.7 Poisson Demand Incidence Distribution 75 4.7.1 A Priori Grounds 75 4.7.2 Ease of Calculation 75 4.7.3 Flexibility 76 4.7.4 Goodness of Fit 76 4.7.5 Summary 79 4.8 Bernoulli Demand Occurrence Distribution 79 4.8.1 Bernoulli Distribution: A Priori Grounds 79 4.8.2 Bernoulli Distribution: Ease of Calculation 80 4.8.3 Bernoulli Distribution: Flexibility 81 4.8.4 Bernoulli Distribution: Goodness of Fit 81 4.8.5 Summary 82 4.9 Chapter Summary 82 Technical Notes 83 5 Compound Demand Distributions 87 5.1 Introduction 87 5.2 Compound Poisson Distributions 88 5.2.1 Compound Poisson: A Priori Grounds 89 5.2.2 Compound Poisson: Flexibility 89 5.2.3 Summary 89 5.3 Stuttering Poisson Distribution 90 5.3.1 Stuttering Poisson: A Priori Grounds 91 5.3.2 Stuttering Poisson: Ease of Calculation 91 5.3.3 Stuttering Poisson: Flexibility 93 5.3.4 Stuttering Poisson: Goodness of Fit for Demand Sizes 93 5.3.5 Summary 95 5.4 Negative Binomial Distribution 96 5.4.1 Negative Binomial: A Priori Grounds 96 5.4.2 Negative Binomial: Ease of Calculation 96 5.4.3 Negative Binomial: Flexibility 97 5.4.4 Negative Binomial: Goodness of Fit 98 5.4.5 Summary 99 5.5 Compound Bernoulli Distributions 100 5.5.1 Compound Bernoulli: A Priori Grounds 100 5.5.2 Compound Bernoulli: Ease of Calculation 100 5.5.3 Compound Bernoulli: Flexibility 100 5.5.4 Compound Bernoulli: Goodness of Fit 101 5.5.5 Summary 101 5.6 Compound Erlang Distributions 101 5.6.1 Compound Erlang Distributions: A Priori Grounds 103 5.6.2 Compound Erlang Distributions: Ease of Calculation 104 5.6.3 Compound Erlang-2: Flexibility 104 5.6.4 Compound Erlang-2: Goodness of Fit 104 5.6.5 Summary 105 5.7 Differing Time Units 105 5.7.1 Poisson Distribution 106 5.7.2 Compound Poisson Distribution 106 5.7.3 Compound Bernoulli and Compound Erlang Distributions 107 5.7.4 Normal Distribution 108 5.7.5 Summary 110 5.8 Chapter Summary 110 Technical Notes 111 6 Forecasting Mean Demand 117 6.1 Introduction 117 6.2 Demand Assumptions 118 6.2.1 Elements of Intermittent Demand 119 6.2.2 Demand Models 119 6.2.3 An Intermittent Demand Model 120 6.2.4 Summary 121 6.3 Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) 121 6.3.1 SES as an Error-correction Mechanism 122 6.3.2 SES as aWeighted Average of Previous Observations 122 6.3.3 Practical Considerations 125 6.3.4 Summary 126 6.4 Croston’s Critique of SES 126 6.4.1 Bias After Demand Occurring Periods 126 6.4.2 Magnitude of Bias After Demand Occurring Periods 128 6.4.3 Bias After Review Intervals with Demands 128 6.4.4 Summary 129 6.5 Croston’s Method 129 6.5.1 Method Specification 129 6.5.2 Method Application 130 6.5.3 Summary 131 6.6 Critique of Croston’s Method 132 6.6.1 Bias of Size-interval Approaches 132 6.6.2 Inversion Bias 132 6.6.3 Quantification of Bias 133 6.6.4 Summary 134 6.7 Syntetos–Boylan Approximation 134 6.7.1 Practical Application 134 6.7.2 Framework for Correction Factors 135 6.7.3 Initialisation and Optimisation 135 6.7.4 Summary 138 6.8 Aggregation for Intermittent Demand 138 6.8.1 Temporal Aggregation 138 6.8.2 Cross-sectional Aggregation 141 6.8.3 Summary 142 6.9 Empirical Studies 143 6.9.1 Single Series, Single Period Approaches 143 6.9.2 Single Series, Multiple Period Approaches 144 6.9.3 Summary 145 6.10 Chapter Summary 145 Technical Notes 146 7 Forecasting the Variance of Demand and Forecast Error 151 7.1 Introduction 151 7.2 Mean Known, Variance Unknown 151 7.2.1 Mean Demand Unchanging Through Time 152 7.2.2 Relating Variance Over One Period to Variance Over the Protection Interval 152 7.2.3 Summary 153 7.3 Mean Unknown, Variance Unknown 153 7.3.1 Mean and Variance Unchanging Through Time 154 7.3.2 Mean or Variance Changing Through Time 155 7.3.3 Relating Variance Over One Period to Variance Over the Protection Interval 156 7.3.4 Direct Approach to Estimating Variance of Forecast Error Over the Protection Interval 158 7.3.5 Implementing the Direct Approach to Estimating Variance Over the Protection Interval 160 7.3.6 Summary 160 7.4 Lead Time Variability 161 7.4.1 Consequences of Recognising Lead Time Variance 161 7.4.2 Variance of Demand Over a Variable Lead Time (Known Mean Demand) 162 7.4.3 Variance of Demand Over a Variable Lead Time (Unknown Mean Demand) 163 7.4.4 Distribution of Demand Over a Variable Lead Time 164 7.4.5 Summary 165 7.5 Chapter Summary 165 Technical Notes 166 8 Inventory Settings 169 8.1 Introduction 169 8.2 Normal Demand 170 8.2.1 Order-up-to Levels for Four Scenarios 170 8.2.2 Scenario 1: Mean and Standard Deviation Known 170 8.2.3 Scenario 2: Mean Demand Unknown Standard Deviation Known 172 8.2.4 Scenario 3: Mean Demand Known Standard Deviation Unknown 175 8.2.5 Scenario 4: Mean and Standard Deviation Unknown 176 8.2.6 Summary 177 8.3 Poisson Demand 177 8.3.1 Cycle Service Level System when the Mean Demand is Known 177 8.3.2 Fill Rate System when the Mean Demand is Known 178 8.3.3 Poisson OUT Level when the Mean Demand is Unknown 179 8.3.4 Summary 181 8.4 Compound Poisson Demand 181 8.4.1 Stuttering Poisson OUT Level when the Parameters are Known 181 8.4.2 Negative Binomial OUT Levels when the Parameters are Known 183 8.4.3 Stuttering Poisson and Negative Binomial OUT Levels when the Parameters are Unknown 183 8.4.4 Summary 184 8.5 Variable Lead Times 184 8.5.1 Empirical Lead Time Distributions 184 8.5.2 Summary 185 8.6 Chapter Summary 185 Technical Notes 186 9 Accuracy and Its Implications 193 9.1 Introduction 193 9.2 Forecast Evaluation 194 9.2.1 Only One Step Ahead? 194 9.2.2 All Points in Time? 194 9.2.3 Summary 195 9.3 Error Measures in Common Usage 195 9.3.1 Popular Forecast Error Measures 195 9.3.2 Calculation of Forecast Errors 197 9.3.3 Mean Error 197 9.3.4 Mean Square Error 198 9.3.5 Mean Absolute Error 198 9.3.6 Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 198 9.3.7 100% Minus MAPE 199 9.3.8 Forecast Value Added 199 9.3.9 Summary 200 9.4 Criteria for Error Measures 200 9.4.1 General Criteria 200 9.4.2 Additional Criteria for Intermittence 201 9.4.3 Summary 201 9.5 Mean Absolute Percentage Error and its Variants 201 9.5.1 Problems with the Mean Absolute Percentage Error 202 9.5.2 Mean Absolute Percentage Error from Forecast 202 9.5.3 Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error 203 9.5.4 MAPEFF and sMAPE for Intermittent Demand 204 9.5.5 Summary 205 9.6 Measures Based on the Mean Absolute Error 205 9.6.1 MAE: Mean Ratio 205 9.6.2 Mean Absolute Scaled Error 206 9.6.3 Measures Based on Absolute Errors 207 9.6.4 Summary 208 9.7 Measures Based on the Mean Error 208 9.7.1 Desirability of Unbiased Forecasts 209 9.7.2 Mean Error 209 9.7.3 Mean Percentage Error 210 9.7.4 Scaled Bias Measures 210 9.7.5 Summary 211 9.8 Measures Based on the Mean Square Error 211 9.8.1 Scaled Mean Square Error 212 9.8.2 Relative Root Mean Square Error 212 9.8.3 Percentage Best 213 9.8.4 Summary 213 9.9 Accuracy of Predictive Distributions 214 9.9.1 Measuring Predictive Distribution Accuracy 214 9.9.2 Probability Integral Transform for Continuous Data 215 9.9.3 Probability Integral Transform for Discrete Data 215 9.9.4 Summary 217 9.10 Accuracy Implication Measures 218 9.10.1 Simulation Outline 218 9.10.2 Forecasting Details 218 9.10.3 Simulation Details 219 9.10.4 Comparison of Simulation Results 220 9.10.5 Summary 221 9.11 Chapter Summary 221 Technical Notes 221 10 Judgement, Bias, and Mean Square Error 225 10.1 Introduction 225 10.2 Judgemental Forecasting 225 10.2.1 Evidence on Prevalence of Judgemental Forecasting 226 10.2.2 Judgemental Biases 226 10.2.3 Effectiveness of Judgemental Forecasts: Evidence for Non-intermittent Items 229 10.2.4 Effectiveness of Judgemental Forecasts: Evidence for Intermittent Items 230 10.2.5 Summary 231 10.3 Forecast Bias 232 10.3.1 Monitoring and Detection of Bias 232 10.3.2 Bias as an Expectation of a Random Variable 234 10.3.3 Response to Different Causes of Bias 235 10.3.4 Summary 236 10.4 The Components of Mean Square Error 236 10.4.1 Calculation of Mean Square Error 236 10.4.2 Decomposition of Expected Squared Errors 236 10.4.3 Decomposition of Expected Squared Errors for Independent Demand 238 10.4.4 Summary 239 10.5 Chapter Summary 240 Technical Notes 240 11 Classification Methods 243 11.1 Introduction 243 11.2 Classification Schemes 244 11.2.1 The Purpose of Classification 244 11.2.2 Classification Criteria 245 11.2.3 Summary 245 11.3 ABC Classification 246 11.3.1 Pareto Principle 246 11.3.2 Service Criticality 246 11.3.3 ABC Classification and Forecasting 247 11.3.4 Summary 248 11.4 Extensions to the ABC Classification 248 11.4.1 Composite Criterion Approach 249 11.4.2 Multi-criteria Approaches 250 11.4.3 Classification for Spare Parts 250 11.4.4 Summary 251 11.5 Conceptual Clarifications 251 11.5.1 Definition of Non-normal Demand Patterns 251 11.5.2 Conceptual Framework 252 11.5.3 Summary 253 11.6 Classification Based on Demand Sources 254 11.6.1 Demand Generation 254 11.6.2 A Qualitative Classification Approach 254 11.6.3 Summary 255 11.7 Forecasting-based Classifications 255 11.7.1 Forecasting and Generalisation 256 11.7.2 Classification Solutions 257 11.7.3 Summary 258 11.8 Chapter Summary 259 Technical Notes 260 12 Maintenance and Obsolescence 263 12.1 Introduction 263 12.2 Maintenance Contexts 264 12.2.1 Summary 265 12.3 Causal Forecasting 265 12.3.1 Causal Forecasting for Maintenance Management 266 12.3.2 Summary 268 12.4 Time Series Methods 268 12.4.1 Forecasting in the Presence of Obsolescence 269 12.4.2 Forecasting with Granular Maintenance Information 272 12.4.3 Summary 273 12.5 Forecasting in Context 273 12.6 Chapter Summary 275 Technical Notes 276 13 Non-parametric Methods 279 13.1 Introduction 279 13.2 Empirical Distribution Functions 280 13.2.1 Assumptions 281 13.2.2 Length of History 281 13.2.3 Summary 282 13.3 Non-overlapping and Overlapping Blocks 282 13.3.1 Differences Between the Two Methods 282 13.3.2 Methods and Assumptions 284 13.3.3 Practical Considerations 284 13.3.4 Performance of Non-overlapping Blocks Method 285 13.3.5 Performance of Overlapping Blocks Method 285 13.3.6 Summary 286 13.4 Comparison of Approaches 286 13.4.1 Time Series Characteristics Favouring Overlapping Blocks 286 13.4.2 Empirical Evidence on Overlapping Blocks 287 13.4.3 Summary 289 13.5 Resampling Methods 289 13.5.1 Simple Bootstrapping 289 13.5.2 Bootstrapping Demand Sizes and Intervals 290 13.5.3 VZ Bootstrap and the Syntetos–Boylan Approximation 292 13.5.4 Extension of Methods to Variable Lead Times 293 13.5.5 Resampling Immediately After Demand Occurrence 293 13.5.6 Summary 294 13.6 Limitations of Simple Bootstrapping 294 13.6.1 Autocorrelated Demand 294 13.6.2 Previously Unobserved Demand Values 295 13.6.3 Summary 296 13.7 Extensions to Simple Bootstrapping 296 13.7.1 Discrete-time Markov Chains 296 13.7.2 Extension to Simple Bootstrapping Using Markov Chains 297 13.7.3 Jittering 299 13.7.4 Limitations of Jittering 300 13.7.5 Further Developments 300 13.7.6 Empirical Evidence on Bootstrapping Methods 300 13.7.7 Summary 302 13.8 Chapter Summary 302 Technical Notes 303 14 Model-based Methods 305 14.1 Introduction 305 14.2 Models and Methods 305 14.2.1 A Simple Model for Single Exponential Smoothing 306 14.2.2 Critique ofWeighted Least Squares 307 14.2.3 ARIMA Models 307 14.2.4 The ARIMA(0,1,1) Model and SES 308 14.2.5 Summary 309 14.3 Integer Autoregressive Moving Average (INARMA) Models 309 14.3.1 Integer Autoregressive Model of Order One, INAR(1) 310 14.3.2 Integer Moving Average Model of Order One, INMA(1) 312 14.3.3 Mixed Integer Autoregressive Moving Average Models 312 14.3.4 Summary 313 14.4 INARMA Parameter Estimation 313 14.4.1 Parameter Estimation for INAR(1) Models 313 14.4.2 Parameter Estimation for INMA(1) Models 314 14.4.3 Parameter Estimation for INARMA(1,1) Models 314 14.4.4 Summary 315 14.5 Identification of INARMA Models 315 14.5.1 Identification Using Akaike’s Information Criterion 315 14.5.2 General Models and Model Identification 316 14.5.3 Summary 317 14.6 Forecasting Using INARMA Models 317 14.6.1 Forecasting INAR(1) Mean Demand 318 14.6.2 Forecasting INMA(1) Mean Demand 318 14.6.3 Forecasting INARMA(1,1) Mean Demand 319 14.6.4 Forecasting Using Temporal Aggregation 319 14.6.5 Summary 319 14.7 Predicting the Whole Demand Distribution 319 14.7.1 Protection Interval of One Period 320 14.7.2 Protection Interval of More Than One Period 320 14.7.3 Summary 322 14.8 State Space Models for Intermittence 322 14.8.1 Croston’s Demand Model 323 14.8.2 Proposed State Space Models 324 14.8.3 Summary 325 14.9 Chapter Summary 325 Technical Notes 325 15 Software for Intermittent Demand 329 15.1 Introduction 329 15.2 Taxonomy of Software 330 15.2.1 Proprietary Software 330 15.2.2 Open Source Software 332 15.2.3 Hybrid Solutions 333 15.2.4 Summary 333 15.3 Framework for Software Evaluation 333 15.3.1 Key Aspects of Software Evaluation 334 15.3.2 Additional Criteria 335 15.3.3 Summary 336 15.4 Software Features and Their Availability 336 15.4.1 Software Features for Intermittent Demand 336 15.4.2 Availability of Software Features 337 15.4.3 Summary 338 15.5 Training 339 15.5.1 Summary 340 15.6 Forecast Support Systems 340 15.6.1 Summary 341 15.7 Alternative Perspectives 341 15.7.1 Bayesian Methods 342 15.7.2 Neural Networks 342 15.7.3 Summary 343 15.8 Way Forward 343 15.9 Chapter Summary 345 Technical Note 345 References 347 Author Index 365 Subject Index 367
£58.46
Oxford University Press Economics Rules
Book SynopsisThe economics profession has become a favourite punching bag in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Economists are widely reviled and their influence derided by the general public. Yet their services have never been in greater demand. To unravel the paradox, we need to understand both the strengths and weaknesses of economics. Dani Rodrik argues that the multiplicity of theoretical frameworks - what economists call ''models'' that exist side by side is economics'' great strength. Economists are trained to hold diverse, possibly contradictory models of the world in their minds. This is what allows them, when they do their job right, to comprehend the world, make useful suggestions for improving it, and to advance their stock of knowledge over time. In short, it is what makes economics a ''science'' a different kind of science from physics or some other natural sciences, but a science nonetheless. But syncretism is not a comfortable state of mind, and economists often jettison Trade ReviewDani Rodrik ... provides an edifying discussion of these basic tools, of the economist's trade [economic models] * Ben Chu, Books of the Year 2015, Independent *one of the world's most perceptive policy analysts * Martin Wolf, Books of the Year 2015: Best Books 2015 Economics, Financial Times *Rodriks central message is that economics is a collection of models with which to see the world ... The challenge is to choose which model applies to the situation at hand. This choice requires theoretical open-mindedness and empirical investigation and is, as Rodrik succinctly puts it, a craft not a science. That idea that good economics is about good craftsmanship as much as anything else is a hugely valuable contribution. Rodrik is well placed to make these arguments because he is himself a master craftsman. * Martin Sandbu, The Financial Times *I hope open-minded critics of economics will read Economics Rules to learn how the best of economists approach the subject, and how important their work is * The Enlightened Economist, Diane Coyle *terrific * The Enlightened Economist, Diane Coyle *Table of ContentsIntroduction: The Use and Misuse of Economic Ideas 1: What Models Do 2: The Science of Economic Modeling 3: Navigating among Models 4: Models and Theories 5: When Economists Go Wrong 6: Economics and Its Critics Epilogue: The Twenty Commandments
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Vintage Publishing Treasure Islands
Book SynopsisWITH NEW AND UPDATED MATERIALBillionaire Warren Buffet, currently the third wealthiest man in the world, paid the lowest rate of tax among his office staff, including his receptionist.In 2006 the world''s three biggest banana companies did nearly 400 million worth of business in Britain but paid just 128,000 in tax between them.In January 2009, US law enforcement fined Lloyds TSB $350 million after it admitted secretly channelling Iranian and Sudanese money into the US banking system.Tax havens are the most important single reason why poor people and poor countries stay poor. They lie at the very heart of the global economy, with over half the world trade processed through them. They have been instrumental in nearly every major economic event, in every big financial scandal, and in every financial crisis since the 1970s, including the latest global economic downturn. In Treasure Islands, Nicholas Shaxson shows how this hapTrade ReviewAn utterly superb book -- Jeffrey SachsShaxson combines meticulous research with amusing anecdotes, resulting in a very readable account of the murky world of offshore and a strong moral message that the system needs to be changed * Financial Times *Excellent... Shaxson comes as close as anyone ever has in getting the crux of the tax haven conundrum, which is to attempt to answer the question: why are they tolerated? - Evening Standard * Evening Standard *A fascinating, chilling book -- Paul KrugmanNot just a crucial exposé of the corrupt systems endemic in the global economy, but also a rousing call to do something about them -- Holly Kyte * Sunday Telegraph *
£10.44
Random House USA Inc Why Nations Fail
Book Synopsis
£26.40
Brookings Institution For the Worlds Profit
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£29.37
