Business, Finance & Law Books

Book SynopsisCorporate and government scandals continue to deepen our mistrust of leaders. While credibility is the foundation of effective leadership, most leaders struggle, and sometimes fail, to align their words and their actions. Now for the first time, leadership expert Tony Simons has measured the bottom-line value of business leaders who live by their word and actually do what they say they are going to do. In The Integrity Dividend, Tony Simons shows how leaders? personal integrity drives the profitability and overall success of their organization. This groundbreaking book is based in on solid research and reveals that businesses led by managers of higher integrity enjoy deeper employee commitment, lower turnover, superior customer service, and substantially higher profitability. This improved performance is the integrity dividend. Simons conducted dozens of focus groups, surveyed thousands of employees, collected financial and operational numbers, and interviewed over 10Table of ContentsForeword ix PART ONE: WHAT IS THE INTEGRITY DIVIDEND? 1 1 The Dollar Value of Your Impeccable Word 3 A definition of behavioral integrity and evidence for the dollar return on leaders’ living by their word 2 Executive Sightings of the Integrity Dividend 18 How executives describe the integrity dividend in different contexts 3 Behavioral Integrity Drivers and Payoffs: Why Small Mistakes Can Have Big Costs 39 An overall framework for seeing how small integrity missteps can grow in impact PART TWO: MANAGING YOUR OWN BEHAVIORAL INTEGRITY: BUILDING TRUST AND CREDIBILITY 53 4 Promise Less, But Do It More Often 55 Selecting fewer key values to emphasize so you can send a clear and consistent message 5 The Language of Living by Your Word: Confronting and Committing 73 Addressing common communication errors that undermine integrity perceptions 6 Behavioral Integrity as a Personal Discipline 96 Developing the power of your own word through delaying gratification, facing fear, self-awareness, vigilance, and other self-management PART THREE: BEHAVIORAL INTEGRITY AND THE RIPPLE EFFECT: BUILDING AND SUSTAINING A LEADERSHIP CULTURE OF INTEGRITY 135 7 Easing the Middle Manager’s Dilemma 137 Reducing the strain middle managers feel when they are asked to implement policies with which they disagree by giving them opportunities to voice their concerns. 8 Creating a Culture of Accountability 158 Shaping a high-integrity community through an integrated approach to performance appraisal, training, coaching, and incentives, coupled with a leader’s personal enactment of integrity 9 Management Fashions and the Flavor-of-the-Month Club 185 Experimenting and learning without looking foolish PART FOUR: BROADER APPLICATIONS AND SUMMARY 203 10 The Integrity Dividend and Outside Stakeholders 205 A brief application of emergent integrity principles to relationships outside the company: customers, suppliers, and unions 11 Capturing the Integrity Dividend 223 An encouraging summary of what you can do Notes 232 Acknowledgments and Dedication 236 About the Author 237 Index 238

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Book SynopsisPraise for THE CHIEF HR OFFICER The Chief HR Officer offers the most current thinking on the evolving role of the chief human resource officer (CHRO). An essential resource for experienced and aspiring CHROs, the book shows leaders how to best prepare for and perform this critical role. This comprehensive book shows how, in today's extremely competitive work environment, the job of the CHRO has expanded to encompass many important roles. Among other things, HR leaders must adapt to and address the demands of an increasingly diverse and demanding workforce, globalization, stricter regulatory requirements, increased accountability to the CEO and board of directors, and the complexity of leading the HR function with often limited resources. This vital guide is filled with rare insights and practical guidance from some of the country's most successful CHROs who have been in the trenches as well as top academics researching the field including Randy MacDonald (Table of ContentsThe Authors vii 1 The Evolving Chief Human Resource Officer Role 1Patrick M. Wright, Paul McKinnon, Richard L. Antoine, Elizabeth ‘‘Libby” Sartain, John W. Boudreau, David A. Pace Part One: Today ’S Chief Human Resource Officer 13 2 Perform! Don’t Run! 15J. Randall MacDonald 3 The Art and Science of the CHRO Role 23Eva Sage-Gavin 4 ETC 32Richard L. Antoine 5 Roles and Challenges of the CHRO: Results of the Cornell/CAHRS CHRO Survey 40Patrick M. Wright, Mark Stewart Part Two: The CHRO As Strategic Advisor and Talent Architect 55 6 Leadership and Employee Engagement: A Positive Synergy at Caterpillar 57Sid Banwart 7 Four Steps to World-Class Talent Management 71L. Kevin Cox 8 Retooling HR and Avoiding the Service Trap: How Proven Business Models Offer Untapped Potential for Strategic Talent Decisions 83John W. Boudreau 9 The CHRO as Cultural Champion 93Michael L. Davis 10 When Crisis Calls 99Laurie Siegel 11 Doing HR’s Business with the Government 107Ian Ziskin Part Three: The CHRO As Counselor/Confidant/ Coach 117 12 Who Do You Really Work For? Serving Multiple and Often Conflicting Constituencies as CHRO 119David A. Pace 13 Partnering with the CEO 130Elease E. Wright 14 Forging Effective Relationships with Your Boss and Colleagues 137Pamela O. Kimmet 15 What Do You Stand For? 146Elizabeth ‘‘Libby” Sartain 16 Great Leader or Just a CEO? Insights on CEOs from the Perspective of CHROs 155Patrick M. Wright, L. Kevin Cox Part Four: The CHRO As Liaison To the Board of Directors 169 17 Working with the Board of Directors 171Bill Rosner 18 CHROs and Boards: A Missing Link 183Edward E. Lawler III 19 The Role of the CHRO in Managing Executive Compensation 193Charles G. Tharp 20 How to Be a High-Performing CHRO in the Executive Compensation Arena 203Ursula O. Fairbairn Part Five: The CHRO As Leader of the HR Function 211 21 Making a Difference in the First 100 Days 213Ken Carrig 22 Delivering Results with a Global HR Team 227Hugh Mitchell 23 Experiences as a New CHRO in a New Industry 237Mirian M. Graddick-Weir 24 Designing an Integrated HR Function: What the CHRO Needs to Know 246Amy Kates, John W. Boudreau, Jay Galbraith 25 HR for Impact 257Sandy Ogg Part Six: Characteristics of Today’s CHRO 269 26 Preparing CHROs to Exceed CEO Expectations 271Dave Ulrich, Ellie Filler 27 Delivering Global Talent in a High-Velocity World: What CEOs Look For in a CHRO 279James Bagley 28 What Does Today’s CHRO Look Like? Demographic Characteristics of CHROs at the World’s Largest Companies 288Patrick M. Wright, Mark Stewart 29 Bringing It All Together: The Four Knows of the CHRO 296Patrick M. Wright Index 303

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Book SynopsisFind your focus – wherever you're working – with Joy at Work.Marie Kondo's first book, The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying, sparked a new genre of books and became an international bestseller. Now, for the first time, you will be guided through the process of tidying up your work life. Whether you are unexpectedly working at home or if you have a dedicated work space or office, if you properly simplify and organize your work life once, you’ll never have to do it again.In Joy at Work, KonMari method pioneer Marie Kondo and organizational psychologist Scott Sonenshein will help you to refocus your mind on what's important at work, and as their examples show, the results can be truly life-changing. With advice on how to improve the way you work, the book features advice on problem areas including fundamentals like how to organize your desk, finally get through your emails and find balance by ditching distractions and focusing on what sparks joy.Like how the key to successful tidying in the home is by tackling clutter in the correct order, Joy at Work adapts the inspirational KonMari Method for your professional life, taking you step-by-step through your working day so that you can identify the most joyful way to work for you. Once you’ve found order in your work, you can feel empowered to find confidence, energy and motivation to create the career you want and move on from negative working practices.'Marie Kondo’s magical new book made me happier at work' - Sarah Shaffi, StylistTrade ReviewA tidy guide to finding joy at work. Full of psychological wisdom and practical tips - I loved it! -- Angela Duckworth, New York Times bestselling author of GritMarie Kondo and Scott Sonenshein understand something very important about life and work: many times the key to success comes from subtracting, not adding. For anyone looking to bring more joy and focus to their office and career, Joy at Work is the book you've been waiting for. -- Alex Banayan, author of the #1 international bestseller The Third DoorJoy at Work is a charming antidote to the messiness of organizational life. It will help you be happier, waste less time, and lead others -- and is mighty fun to read. -- Bob Sutton, Stanford Professor, organizational psychologist, and author of bestsellers The No Asshole Rule and Good Boss, Bad BossFinding joy at work isn't magic ? it takes work. But it might feel a bit more like play thanks to the practical insights from Marie Kondo and Scott Sonenshein. -- Adam Grant, New York Times bestselling author of Originals and Give and Take, and host of the TED podcast WorkLifeMarie Kondo and Scott Sonenshein are modern-day superheroes – the dynamic duo of office efficiency and satisfaction. Their timely book delivers the tools, questions, and mindsets you need to rid the clutter that's piling on your desk, clogging your calendar, and infiltrating your personal networks. If you want joy in life, the place to begin is Joy at Work. -- Daniel H. Pink, New York Times bestselling author of When, To Sell Is Human, and DriveMarie Kondo’s magical new book made me happier at work -- Sarah Shaffi, StylistThe Japanese organisation consultant has revolutionised the way we organise our homes, and our lives. -- Good Housekeeping

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Book SynopsisThe only current authorized edition of the classic work on parliamentary procedure--now in a new updated editionRobert's Rules of Order is the recognized guide to smooth, orderly, and fairly conducted meetings. This 12th edition is the only current manual to have been maintained and updated since 1876 under the continuing program established by General Henry M. Robert himself. As indispensable now as the original edition was more than a century ago, Robert's Rules of Order Newly Revised is the acknowledged "gold standard" for meeting rules.New and enhanced features of this edition include:* Section-based paragraph numbering to facilitate cross-references and e-book compatibility* Expanded appendix of charts, tables, and lists* Sample rules for electronic meetings* Helpful summary explanations about postponing a motion, reconsidering a vote, making and enforcing points of order and appeals, and newly expanded procedures for filling blanks* New provisions regarding debate on nominations, reopening nominations, and completing an election after its scheduled time* Dozens more clarifications, additions, and refinements to improve the presentation of existing rules, incorporate new interpretations, and address common inquiriesCoinciding with publication of the 12th edition, the authors of this manual have once again published an updated (3rd) edition of Robert's Rules of Order Newly Revised In Brief, a simple and concise introductory guide cross-referenced to it.

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Book SynopsisIndia's caravan trade with central Asia was at the heart of the complex web of routes making up the Silk Roads. But what was the fate of these overland connections in the ages of sail and steam? Jagjeet Lally sets out to answer this question by bringing the world of caravan trade to life--a world of merchants, mercenaries, pastoralists and pilgrims, but also of kings, bureaucrats and their subjects in the countryside and towns. The livelihoods of these figures did not become obsolete with the advent of 'modern' technologies and the consequent emergence of new global networks. Terrestrial routes remained critically important, not only handling flows of goods and money, but also fostering networks of trade in credit, secret intelligence and fighting power. With the waning of the Mughal Empire during the eighteenth century, new Indian kingdoms and their rulers came to the fore, drawing their power and prosperity from resources brought by caravan trade. The encroachment of British and Russian imperialism into this commercial arena in the nineteenth century gave new significance to some people and flows, while steadily undermining others. India and the Silk Roads is a global history of a continental interior, the first to comprehensively examine the textual and material traces of caravan trade in the 'age of empires'. By showing how no single ruler could control the nebulous yet durable networks of this trading world, which had its own internal dynamics even as it evolved in step with global transformations, Lally forces us to rethink the history of globalisation and re-evaluate our fixation with empires and states as the building blocks of historical analysis. It is a narrative resonating with our own times, as China's Belt and Road Initiative brings terrestrial forms of connectivity back to the fore--transforming life across Eurasia once again.Trade Review'India and the Silk Roads takes the reader on a tour de force through a two-century history of trade, technology and geopolitics straddling India, Afghanistan and Central Asia. Important and outstanding--it will gain much attention and praise.' -- T.C.A. Raghavan, former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan and Singapore, and author of 'The People Next Door: The Curious History of India’s Relations with Pakistan''India and the Silk Roads goes much beyond trade and looks at the geopolitical, economic and technological environment of the Silk Road. Careful and with a wealth of detail, it is a balance and corrective to existing literature on the silk route.' -- Benjamin D. Hopkins, Associate Professor of History and International Affairs at the George Washington University, Washington DC, and author of 'The Making of Modern Afghanistan''India’s overland interactions with Afghanistan and Central Asia have largely been sidelined by recent decades of sea-facing scholarship. In this astute, holistic analysis, Lally makes a compelling case for the continued impact of the caravan trade on Indian economic and cultural life well into the twentieth century.' -- Nile Green, Ibn Khaldun Endowed Chair in World History, UCLA, and author of 'Bombay Islam: The Religious Economy of the West Indian Ocean, 1840-1915''India and the Silk Roads is a scholarly exposition of the Trans-Eurasian caravan trade, providing a fresh look at India's historical overland trade routes to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Riveting and refreshing--a breath of fresh air amongst existing literature on the Silk Routes.' -- Nasir Raza Khan, Associate Professor, India Arab Cultural Centre, Jamia Millia Islamia (Central University), New Delhi

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Book SynopsisAfter the Second World War, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) promoted trade liberalization to help make the world prosperous and peaceful. Francine McKenzie uses case studies of the Cold War, the creation of the EEC and other regional trade agreements, development, and agriculture, to show that trade is a primary goal of foreign policy, a dominant (and divisive) aspect of international relations, and a vital component of global order. She unpacks the many ways in which trade was politicised, and the layers of meaning associated with trade; trade policies, as well as disputes about trade, communicated ideas, hopes and fears that were linked to larger questions of identity, sovereignty, and status. This study reveals how the economic and political dimensions of foreign policy and international engagement intersected, showing that trade was not only instrumentalised in the service of particular policies or relations but that it was also an essential aspect of international relations.Trade Review'With trade protectionism on the rise today, it is vitally important to understand the origins of the post-World War II trading system. Francine McKenzie has written an insightful and illuminating study on the difficult past of the GATT that will be of great interest to historians, economists, and political scientists alike.' Douglas Irwin, Dartmouth College'GATT as 'the 'Cinderella of international organizations'? McKenzie's innovative study of GATT situates international trade in global politics and reminds us why the history of economics on an international scale matters. As the clock moves closer to midnight, GATT and Global Order helps us understand the paradoxes of the twentieth century international economic order, and how difficult it is to disentangle the fiscal tenets of asymmetrical globalization from the established virtues of international cooperation.' Glenda Sluga, University of Sydney/ European University Institute'This bold book brings into one place the issues, events, debates, policies, and people of the GATT during its half-century history. This is both a survey and an in-depth, multi-archival examination of a major institution – a truly amazing undertaking with results that are oftentimes breath-taking in their scope.' Tom Zeiler, University of Colorado Boulder'International historian Francine McKenzie has consulted numerous primary sources around the world, as well as secondary sources, to write an account of this important trade policy institution. Organized around four broad themes - the Cold War, regionalism, development, and agriculture - the study shows and analyses what negotiators and policy makers thought, behind the often bland or triumphant compromise public statements.' James Foreman-Peck, EH.net (Economic History Association)Table of ContentsIntroduction: GATT in World Affairs; 1. Accidental Organization: Origins and Early Years of GATT; 2. 'An Arrow in the Western World's Quiver': The Cold War Challenge to GATT; 3. 'Take It or Leave It': The EEC Challenge to GATT; 4. 'Spread Like the Plague': The Regional Challenge to GATT; 5. 'Rich Man's Club': The Development Challenge to GATT; 6. 'Agricultural Anarchy': The Agriculture Challenge to GATT; Conclusion: The Embattled History of GATT.

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Book SynopsisA Business Week Best Book of the Year.... "A devastating and wholly necessary book."—Studs Terkel, author of Working

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Book SynopsisWhat is inspiration? Can there be a method for finding inspiration? Inspired by Method is both a guide to and a source of inspiration.Designing involves individuality and a systematic approach, which we may apply consciously or subconsciously, depending on the project. The 5D-method for inspiration, created by Alexandra Martini, is an incisive little tool that you can use in any design process. It takes away the fear of starting a new project. This method uses the following five dimensions: Formal-Aesthetic Dimension, Haptic Dimension, Production Dimension, Cultural Dimension and Interactive Dimension. It will help you analyse, experiment with and realise your ideas. The first phase of the book will get you started. The second phase encourages you to experiment and explore some unusual paths.For all budding creatives who are involved with design, in any way, that want to deepen their knowledge and intellectual portfolio professionally and develop their design skills further. The book provides orientation, guidance and methodology.

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Book SynopsisAn essential guide to navigating the complexities of professional relationships. Our colleagues can be the sources of our greatest joys and triumphs: they compensate for our weaknesses, enlarge our strengths and aggregate our energies. However, working successfully around others is neither intuitive nor simple: it requires us to communicate effectively, to understand our own minds and blind spots, to master our emotions and to see the world through others’ perspectives. This book compresses our learning into a series of lessons on workplace psychology. The result is nothing less than an essential guide to more profitable, harmonious and happier organisations.

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Book SynopsisIn the first century BC lending and borrowing by the senators was the talk of Rome and even provoked political crises. During this same period, the state tax-farmers were handling enormous sums and exploiting the provinces of the Empire. Until now no book has presented a synthetic view of Roman banking and financial life as a whole, from the time of the appearance of the first bankers' shops in the Forum between 318 and 310 BC down to the end of the Principate in AD 284. Professor Andreau writes of the business deals of the elite and the professional bankers and also of the interventions of the state. To what extent did the spirit of profit and enterprise predominate over the traditional values of the city of Rome? And what economic role did these financiers play? How should we compare that role to that of their counterparts in later periods.Trade Review'… a nice new interpretation of tesserae nummulariae, Roman interest rates, the rarity of state intervention in financial matters, and lack of public borrowing … will inject new life into anglophone teaching and study of the Roman economy.' Journal of Roman StudiesTable of Contents1. Introduction; 2. The financial activities of the elites; 3. Banks and bankers; 4. Other categories of financiers; 5. Dependants; 6. The tablets of Murecine; 7. The tesserae nummulariae; 8. The interest rate; 9. Rome's responses to financiers and financial crises; 10. The financial activities of the city of Rome and of the empire; 11. The problem of quantities and quantitative developments; 12. Financial life in Roman society and its economy.

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Book SynopsisEssential reading for all those studying horticulture and keen gardeners. This clear introduction to the principles underlying the practical applications of horticulture opens up the excitement of plant growing and garden development without readers wading through complex information. The text supports the newly restructured RHS syllabus, and other horticultural qualifications.Trade Review'It is fantastic to have one ultimate reference text that students can refer to at all levels and that covers both the science behind growing plants and the application of science in plant management, propagation and production. This is an up-to-date look at developments in the horticultural industry and growing techniques in harmony with traditional approaches to horticultural techniques and practices. Extremely thorough but easy to read, superbly illustrated and the revision questions at the end of each chapter are invaluable for those students who want to check their own learning and go further with their studies. The case studies are extremely useful and relevant to modern teaching and learning methods. I will definitely be recommending this as the new bible for my students at all levels.' Caroline Wright, Nottingham Trent University'An exceptionally useful informative and most importantly up-to-date text for students of horticulture at all levels. Well written with clear illustrations allowing clear understanding of topics. Formatted in the way a good text book should with clear structure and logical progression through subjects. A good range of case studies, revision questions and the glossaries allows for structured independent and student centred learning. The linkage to course syllabus allows both student and tutor alike to use this work as a key reference text for all learning from experiential through to revision.' John Guy, Northumberland College'This book will no doubt be a great addition to horticultural teaching resources.' The Horticulturist'… [this] book and its associated website can be recommended not only to horticulture students but also to a wider readership, since they provide a near-comprehensive and up-to-date coverage of their subject.' John Edmondson, New Journal of Botany'… this is a useful and most welcome addition to a horticulturalist's library.' Leighton Dann, The BiologistTable of ContentsPreface; Acknowledgements; List of contributors; Part I. The Foundations: 1. Plant diversity Mike Thomas-Buffin and Tim Upson; 2. Plant structure Kelvin Mason; 3. Light Daphne Vince-Prue; 4. Water and its importance for plants Daphne Vince-Prue; 5. Climate, weather and seasonal effects Daphne Vince-Prue; 6. Soils and plant nutrients Chris Bird; 7. Flowers, fruits, and seeds Kelvin Mason; Part II. The Adjustments: 8. Propagating plants vegetatively Daphne Vince-Prue and Rosie Yeomans; 9. Gardening for science Aaron Mills; 10. Shaping plants Daphne Vince-Prue and Chris Bird; 11. Protected cultivation Chris Allen; Part III. The Applications: 12. Gardening for food Chris Bird; 13. Designing gardens and landscapes Jenny Shukman; 14. Using plants in the garden Jenny Shukman and Rosie Yeomans; 15. Gardening for science Aaron Mills; 16. Commercial horticulture Chris Allen; 17. Integrated pest management Neil Helyer; 18. Conservation and sustainability Jenny Shukman; Appendixes; Glossary; Figure credits; Index.

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Book SynopsisThe underlying theme of this book will be on how empirical analysis can be used in Finance to test financial theory, model policy implications, and to forecast for investment purposes, rather than focusing in detail on the statistical and mathematical theory behind the models used. Empirical examples will be used throughout as pedagogical devices.Table of ContentsPreface xii Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Subject Matter and Structure 1 1.2 Computer Software 4 1.3 Data 5 1.4 References 6 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Random Processes 7 2.1 Introduction 7 2.2 Random Variables and Random Processes 8 2.2.1 Random Variables 8 2.2.2 Random Processes 15 2.3 Time Series Models 18 2.3.1 Autoregressive (AR) and Moving Average (MA) Models 18 2.3.2 Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Models 21 2.3.3 Non-stationary Time Series 22 2.3.4 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models 24 2.3.5 Parameter Estimation and Inference 25 2.3.6 The Box–Jenkins Approach 30 2.3.7 Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Models 34 2.3.8 Forecasting with Time Series Models 35 2.3.9 Evaluating Forecasts 38 2.3.10 Non-linear Time Series Models 42 2.4 Summary 44 2.5 End of Chapter Questions 44 2.6 References 46 Chapter 3 Regression and Volatility 49 3.1 Introduction 49 3.2 Regression Models 50 3.2.1 Linear Regression 50 3.2.2 Spurious Regression 56 3.2.3 Unit Root Tests 57 3.2.4 Cointegration 59 3.2.5 Forecasting with Regression Models 65 3.3 Modelling and Forecasting Conditional Volatility 66 3.3.1 Univariate Conditional Volatility 66 3.3.2 Conditional Covariance Matrices 72 3.4 Summary 75 3.5 End of Chapter Questions 76 3.6 References 77 Chapter 4 Portfolio Theory and Asset Allocation 80 4.1 Introduction 80 4.2 Returns 81 4.3 Dividend Discount Model 88 4.4 Modern Portfolio Theory 90 4.4.1 Basic Theory 90 4.4.2 Generalisations 97 4.4.3 Strengths and Weaknesses 98 4.5 Empirical Examples 100 4.6 Summary 107 4.7 End of Chapter Questions 109 4.8 Appendix 110 4.8.1 Data 110 4.8.2 MATLAB® Programs and Toolboxes 111 4.9 References 112 Chapter 5 Asset Pricing Models and Factor Models 113 5.1 Introduction 113 5.2 CAPM 114 5.2.1 Main Results 114 5.2.2 CAPM Applications 117 5.2.3 Empirically Testing the CAPM 118 5.2.4 Strengths and Weaknesses 120 5.3 Factor Models 122 5.3.1 Single-Index Model and APT Model 122 5.3.2 Macroeconomic Factor Models 124 5.3.3 Fama and French Models 125 5.3.4 Covariance Matrix Estimation 126 5.3.5 Strengths and Weaknesses 128 5.4 Empirical Examples 130 5.5 Summary 136 5.6 End of Chapter Questions 137 5.7 Appendix 138 5.7.1 Data 138 5.7.2 MATLAB® Programs and Toolboxes 139 5.8 References 140 Chapter 6 Market Efficiency 143 6.1 Introduction 143 6.2 Market Efficiency Tests 145 6.2.1 The Efficient Market Hypothesis 145 6.2.2 Random Walk Tests 147 6.2.3 Other Tests 149 6.3 Econometric Forecasting 152 6.4 Technical Analysis 154 6.4.1 Overview 154 6.4.2 Testing the Profitability of Technical Trading Rules 158 6.5 Data-Snooping 160 6.6 Empirical Examples 162 6.7 Summary 174 6.8 End of Chapter Questions 175 6.9 Appendix 176 6.9.1 Data 176 6.9.2 MATLAB® Programs and Toolboxes 177 6.10 References 179 Chapter 7 Modelling and Forecasting Exchange Rates 183 7.1 Introduction 183 7.2 Exchange Rates 184 7.3 Market Efficiency and Exchange Rate Parity Conditions 187 7.3.1 Uncovered Interest Rate Parity 187 7.3.2 Covered Interest Rate Parity 188 7.3.3 Forward Rate Unbiasedness 189 7.4 Market Efficiency Tests 189 7.4.1 Random Walk Tests 189 7.4.2 Regression Model Tests 191 7.5 Purchasing Power Parity 193 7.5.1 The Law of One Price and the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis 193 7.5.2 Testing the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis: Linear Tests 194 7.5.3 Testing the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis: Non-linear Tests 198 7.6 Forecasting Exchange Rates 206 7.6.1 Econometric Models 206 7.6.2 Technical Analysis 210 7.7 Empirical Examples 212 7.8 Summary 220 7.9 End of Chapter Questions 220 7.10 Appendix 221 7.10.1 Data 221 7.10.2 MATLAB® Programs and Toolboxes 224 7.11 References 225 Chapter 8 Modelling and Forecasting Interest Rates 231 8.1 Introduction 231 8.2 Bonds 232 8.2.1 Yields and Prices 232 8.2.2 The Term Structure of Interest Rates 235 8.2.3 Duration and Convexity 238 8.3 Interest Rate Models 242 8.3.1 Vasicek Model 242 8.3.2 CIR Model 249 8.3.3 CKLS Model 250 8.3.4 Forecasting Interest Rates 253 8.4 Empirically Testing the Expectations Hypothesis 254 8.4.1 Introduction 254 8.4.2 Testing the Expectations Hypothesis 255 8.4.3 Results and the Expectations Hypothesis Paradox 258 8.5 Empirical Examples 261 8.6 Summary 267 8.7 End of Chapter Questions 268 8.8 Appendix 268 8.8.1 Data 268 8.8.2 MATLAB® Programs and Toolboxes 270 8.9 References 271 Chapter 9 Market Risk Management 274 9.1 Introduction 274 9.2 VaR by the Delta-Normal Approach 275 9.2.1 VaR for a Single Asset 275 9.2.2 VaR for a Portfolio 278 9.2.3 RiskMetrics and the Delta-Normal Approach 280 9.3 VaR by Historical Simulation 282 9.4 VaR by Monte Carlo Simulation 283 9.5 VaR for Bonds 285 9.6 VaR for Derivatives 287 9.6.1 VaR by Delta-Gamma 287 9.6.2 VaR by Monte Carlo Simulation 292 9.7 Backtesting 295 9.8 Financial Regulation and VaR 299 9.9 Empirical Examples 306 9.10 Summary 319 9.11 End of Chapter Questions 320 9.12 Appendix 321 9.12.1 Data 321 9.12.2 MATLAB® Programs and Toolboxes 322 9.13 References 324 Appendix Statistical Tables 326 A.1 Areas Under the Standard Normal Distribution 327 A.2 Critical Values for Student’s t-distribution 328 A.3 Critical Values for the F-distribution 329 A.4 Critical Values for the Chi-square Distribution 332 A.5 Cumulative Distribution Function for the Dickey–Fuller Test 334 A.6 Response Surfaces for Critical Values of Cointegration Tests 335 Index 336

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Book SynopsisThis book is truly amazing?actually, a masterpiece. It tells the story of the human condition. ?From Foreword by WARREN BENNIS IN THIS FOLLOW-UP BOOK to the best-selling Driven, Harvard professor Paul Lawrence applies his four-drive theory of human behavior to the realm of leadership, explaining how leadership?like all human behavior?can be understood as a function of the balance, or lack of balance, of four basic human drives: the drive to acquire, to defend, to comprehend, and to bond. We achieve an optimal state of leadership when all four drives are cultivated and balanced. In this next-step resource, Lawrence uses historical examples and current leadership crises to explain how the balance of the four drives results in one of three types of leadership: Good leadership: The best leaders, followers, and stakeholders fulfill the four drives in a balanced manner. Misguided leadership: These leaders, followers, and stakeholderTrade Review"...former Medtronic CEO and smart leadership thinker Bill George loved it, and I have to think someone who's been studying the topic since at least the 1960s would have something smart to say." (Washington Post, October 2010)Table of ContentsForeword xi Acknowledgments xiii The Author xv Introduction xvii 1 How Much Can We Hope For? 1 Part One: the Leadership Brain 9 2 A Brain Designed for Leadership? 11 3 Darwin Rediscovered: Did the Brain Evolve Leadership Capabilities? 53 Part Two: Historic Leadership Patterns 79 4 All About Leaders: Good, Bad, and Misguided 81 5 Leadership and the Historic Evolution of Political Institutions 101 6 Leadership of Economic Institutions: The Rise of Corporations 123 7 Leadership in Institutions of Human Meaning: Religion, Art, and Science 143 Part Three: Leadership in Contemporary Affairs 167 8 Keeping on Track: Leadership in Contemporary Corporations 169 9 A Worldwide Swindle: By Banking Leaders-w/o-Conscience? 193 10 Keeping a Global Economy and a Global Community on Track 213 11 Keeping on Track by Practicing Good/Moral Leadership 241 12 Renewing the Story of Human Progress with Darwin’s Help 267 Appendix: Darwin Misunderstood 271 Notes 283 Index 301

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Book SynopsisThis hugely informative and wide-ranging analysis on the management of projects, past, present and future, is written both for practitioners and scholars.Trade Review"This book is well written in plain, unambiguous English. It is for all serious project management practitioners working on any significant project in any area of project management application… This is an academic tome, yet … surprisingly easy and enjoyable reading…the contents throughout the book provide incredible insights and sound and realistic advice." (From a review by R.Max Wideman, Fellow of the Project Management Institute, December 2014) “Summing Up: Highly recommended. Upper-division undergraduates through professionals/practitioners.” (Choice, 1 February 2014)Table of ContentsFigures xiii Tables xv About the Author xvii Preface xix Introduction 1 Structure and Thesis of the Book 2 Take-Aways 5 References and Endnotes 6 PART 1 CONSTRUCTING PROJECT MANAGEMENT 7 Chapter 1 Introduction to Part 1 9 Historical Method 9 Bespeaking Relevant Knowledge 10 References and Endnotes 11 Chapter 2 Project Management before it was Invented 12 Pre-History: Projects and Society 12 Early Attempts at Formal Project Integration 19 World War II and the Manhattan Project 22 References and Endnotes 24 Chapter 3 Systems Project Management 27 USAF Integration: The Formal Recognition of Project Management 27 Schriever and the Atlas Program 30 Polaris 33 PERT and CPM 34 Construction 35 The Harvard Business Review Introduces the Project Manager! 36 McNamara and the Bureaucracy of Systems 36 Apollo: Confi guration Management and Project Leadership 37 DoD Bureaucratisation 41 Externalities 43 Energy and Commodities Projects 46 Nuclear Power 46 The Extractive Industries 48 References and Endnotes 49 Chapter 4 The Project Management Knowledge Base 52 The PMBOK® Guide 52 Theoretical Underpinnings 55 ‘The Management of Projects’ 60 ‘The Management of Projects’ Paradigm versus ‘Execution Delivery’ 61 The APM, IPMA, and Japanese BOKs 61 Quality Management 65 New Product Development: Lessons from Toyota 65 Academic Engagement 67 References and Endnotes 70 Chapter 5 Developing Project Management 75 IMEC: ‘Large Engineering Projects’ 75 Contracting and Procurement 76 Partnering and the new Procurement Environment 78 Risks and Opportunities 81 Flyvbjerg et al.: Transportation Projects and Optimism Bias 81 BOT/PFI 82 Value and Benefits 83 Health, Safety, and Environment 84 Defence Projects 86 Software Projects and Standish 86 Technology and Requirements Management 88 Agile Project Management 90 Information and Communications Technology (ICT) 91 Critical Chain 92 Program Management 93 Developing Enterprise-Wide p.m. Capability: The US Department of Energy (DoE)/NRC Study 94 References and Endnotes 95 Chapter 6 Enterprise-Wide Project Management (EWPM) 99 Strategy and Governance 99 PMOs 100 Best Practice Guidelines and Maturity 100 Critical Management 102 Learning and Development 104 Project Management as a Career Track 105 References and Endnotes 105 Chapter 7 The Development of Project Management: Summary 108 PART 2 DECONSTRUCTING PROJECT MANAGEMENT 113 Chapter 8 Introduction to Part 2 115 The Domain 115 Deconstructing Deconstruction 116 Approaching the Management of Projects 117 Developing Projects 120 References and Endnotes 121 Chapter 9 Control 123 Scope Management 123 Scheduling 128 Estimating 135 Budgeting 138 Cost Management 139 Performance Management (Earned Value) 140 References and Endnotes 142 Chapter 10 Organisation 145 Roles and Responsibilities 145 Structure 149 Structural Forms 152 Contingency Theory and Organisation Design 156 Project Management Contingency: Getting the Fit 157 References and Endnotes 157 Chapter 11 Governance and Strategy 160 Governance 160 Strategy 161 References and Endnotes 165 Chapter 12 Managing the Emerging Project Definition 167 Requirements Management 168 Solutions Development 170 References and Endnotes 174 Chapter 13 Procurement and the Project’s Commercial Management 176 Acquisition and Contracting Strategy 177 Partnering and Alliancing 179 Procurement 181 Contract Administration 182 References and Endnotes 184 Chapter 14 Adding Value, Controlling Risk, Delivering Quality, Safely and Securely 186 Building Value, Achieving Benefits 186 Risk and Opportunity Management 190 Quality Management 192 Health, Safety, Security, and Environment (HSSE) 194 References and Endnotes 195 Chapter 15 People 198 Leadership 199 Teams 201 Stakeholder Management 203 Culture 203 Individuals’ Skills and Behaviours 205 References and Endnotes 210 Chapter 16 Level 3: The Insti tutional Context 214 PMOs 215 Functions of the PMO 215 Clearing the Decks for Reconstruction 224 References and Endnotes 226 PART 3 RECONSTRUCTING PROJECT MANAGEMENT 229 Chapter 17 Introduction to Part 3 231 A Discipline 231 A Knowledge Domain 232 Foundations for the Future 233 References and Endnotes 233 Chapter 18 The Character of our PM Knowledge 234 Terminology 234 Ontology 236 Epistemology and Theories of Project Management 237 Methodology 240 The Character of the Field’s Substantive Knowledge 244 References and Endnotes 249 Chapter 19 Managing Context 252 Independent (or Semi-Independent) Variables 253 Dependent Variables 254 References and Endnotes 256 Chapter 20 Ethos: Building Sponsor Value 257 Questions of Purpose 257 Effectiveness 258 Enhancing Sponsor Value 258 The Japanese Approach: Pursuing Innovation and Value 266 References and Endnotes 267 Chapter 21 ‘only connect’ – the Age of Relevance 269 Connecting p.m. to Organisational Performance 269 The New Dystopia? 270 The Role of MoP/P3M 273 References and Endnotes 276 PART 4 SUMMA 279 Chapter 22 Summary and Conclusions 281 The Sweep of Project Management 281 Conclusions for the Discipline 283 Appendices 287 Appendix 1: Critical Success Factor Studies 289 Appendix 2: ‘Characteristics of Successful Megaprojects or Systems Acquisitions’ 306 Index 309

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Book SynopsisThis handbook provides practitioners with a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange rates, and provides the necessary background on relevant concepts, risks, and policies for working in today's international economic climate.Table of ContentsPreface xxiii Contributors xxvii part one Overview 1 Foreign Exchange Market Structure, Players, and Evolution 3 1.1 Introduction, 3 1.2 Geography and Composition of Currency Trading, 4 1.2.1 Which Currencies are Traded? 6 1.2.2 What Instruments are Traded? 9 1.2.3 How is Trading Regulated? 9 1.3 Players and Information in FX Markets, 11 1.3.1 Who Needs Liquidity? 12 1.3.2 Who Provides Liquidity? 15 1.3.3 Asymmetric Information and Exchange Rate Determination, 19 1.4 Electronic Trading Revolution in FX Markets, 21 1.4.1 The Telephone Era, 22 1.4.2 The Rise of the Computer, 22 1.4.3 Recent Developments in Electronic Trading, 30 1.5 Survey of Multibank FX Platforms, 35 1.6 Summary, 38 Glossary, 39 Acknowledgments, 41 References, 42 2 Macro Approaches to Foreign Exchange Determination 45 2.1 Introduction, 45 2.2 Models of the Nominal Exchange Rate, 46 2.2.1 The Monetary Model, 46 2.2.2 Portfolio Balance Models, 49 2.2.3 Empirical Evidence, 51 2.3 Real Models of the Real Exchange Rate, 54 2.3.1 Purchasing Power Parity, 55 2.3.2 Balassa–Samuelson and Productivity-Based Models, 56 2.3.3 Two-Good Models, 59 2.4 New Directions in Exchange-Rate Modeling, 60 2.4.1 Taking Reaction Functions Seriously, 60 2.4.2 The Impact of Financial Globalization, 63 2.4.3 The Risk Premium and Order Flow, 64 2.5 Conclusions, 65 Acknowledgments, 65 References, 66 3 Micro Approaches to Foreign Exchange Determination 73 3.1 Introduction, 73 3.2 Perspectives on Spot-Rate Dynamics, 74 3.2.1 Decomposition of Depreciation Rates, 74 3.2.2 Macro- and Microperspectives, 77 3.3 Currency Trading Models and their Implications, 80 3.3.1 The Portfolio Shifts Model, 81 3.3.2 Empirical Implications, 88 3.4 Exchange Rates, Order Flows, and the Macro Economy, 95 3.4.1 A Micro-Based Macro model, 96 3.4.2 Empirical Implications, 100 3.5 Conclusion, 105 Appendix, 105 3.6 Acknowledgment, 108 References, 108 4 The Exchange Rate in a Behavioral Finance Framework 111 4.1 Introduction, 111 4.1.1 Mainstream Exchange Rate Models, 111 4.1.2 Away from the Mainstream, 113 4.2 Exchange Rate Puzzles, 114 4.2.1 Disconnect Puzzle and Excess Volatility Puzzle, 114 4.2.2 Unit Root Property, 115 4.2.3 Volatility Clustering, 118 4.2.4 Fat-Tailed Distributed Exchange Rate Returns, 119 4.3 A Prototype Behavioral Model of the Foreign Exchange Market, 122 4.4 Conclusion, 127 References, 129 5 The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes and Some Future Perspectives 133 5.1 Introduction, 133 5.2 A Brief History of Currency Regimes, 135 5.3 Performance of the Laisser-Faire Exchange Rate System, 1973–2010, 138 5.3.1 Market Discipline, 139 5.3.2 Economic Policy Coordination, 140 5.3.3 Integration of Emerging Market Countries into the Global Economy, 140 5.4 Trends in Currency Use, 141 5.4.1 Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009, 143 5.5 Prospects for the Future, 144 5.5.1 The Current System, 144 5.5.2 Toward a more Managed International Monetary System? 146 5.5.3 How and When Will Reform Occur? 150 5.5.4 A Global Nominal Anchor? 151 5.6 Concluding Comments, 153 Appendix A: A Formal Test of Hollowing Out, 154 References, 156 part two Exchange Rate Models and Methods 6 Purchasing Power Parity in Economic History 161 6.1 Introduction, 161 6.2 Categorization of Purchasing-Power-Parity Theories, 162 6.3 Historical Application of PPP: Premodern Periods, 163 6.3.1 Ancient Period, 163 6.3.2 Medieval Period, 164 6.3.3 Sixteenth-Century Spain, 165 6.4 Techniques of Testing PPP Theory in Economic-History Literature, 165 6.4.1 Comparative-Static Computation, 165 6.4.2 Regression Analysis, 165 6.4.3 Testing for Causality, 165 6.4.4 Nonstationarity and Spurious Regression, 166 6.4.5 Testing for Stationarity, 167 6.4.6 Cointegration Analysis, 167 6.5 Price Variable in PPP Computations, 168 6.6 Modern Period: Testing of PPP, 169 6.6.1 Early North America, 169 6.6.2 Bullionist Periods, 170 6.6.3 Floating Rates—Second-Half of Nineteenth Century, 171 6.6.4 Classic Metallic Standards, 172 6.6.5 World War I, 172 6.6.6 Floating Rates—1920s, 173 6.6.7 1930s, 175 6.6.8 Interwar Period, 175 6.6.9 Spain—Long Term, 176 6.6.10 Guatemala—Long Term, 176 6.7 Analysis of U.S. Return to Gold Standard in 1879, 177 6.8 Establishment and Assessment of a Fixed Exchange Rate in Interwar Period, 177 6.8.1 United Kingdom, 177 6.8.2 France, 179 6.9 Conclusions, 180 References, 181 7 Purchasing Power Parity in Tradable Goods 189 7.1 Introduction, 189 7.2 The LOP and Price Indices, 190 7.3 Empirical Evidence on the LOP, 194 7.3.1 Early Tests of the LOP, 194 7.3.2 The Border Effect, 194 7.3.3 Barriers to Arbitrage and Nonlinearities, 195 7.3.4 The Tradable Versus Nontradable Goods Dichotomy, 198 7.3.5 The Aggregation Bias and Micro Price Studies, 199 7.4 Purchasing Power Parity, 200 7.4.1 Transitory and Structural Disparities from Parity, 203 7.5 Aggregating from the LOP to PPP: What Can We Infer? 205 7.5.1 An Eyeball Analysis of PPP, 207 7.6 Conclusion and Implications, 213 Appendix: TAR Modeling, 214 Acknowledgments, 215 References, 215 8 Statistical and Economic Methods for Evaluating Exchange Rate Predictability 221 8.1 Introduction, 221 8.2 Models for Exchange Rate Predictability, 224 8.2.1 A Present Value Model for Exchange Rates, 224 8.2.2 Predictive Regressions, 226 8.3 Statistical Evaluation of Exchange Rate Predictability, 228 8.4 Economic Evaluation of Exchange Rate Predictability, 231 8.4.1 The Dynamic FX Strategy, 231 8.4.2 Mean-Variance Dynamic Asset Allocation, 231 8.4.3 Performance Measures, 232 8.4.4 Transaction Costs, 234 8.5 Combined Forecasts, 235 8.6 Empirical Results, 237 8.6.1 Data on Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals, 237 8.6.2 Predictive Regressions, 242 8.6.3 Statistical Evaluation, 244 8.6.4 Economic Evaluation, 249 8.7 Conclusion, 256 Appendix A: The Bootstrap Algorithm, 259 Acknowledgments, 260 References, 260 9 When Are Pooled Panel-Data Regression Forecasts of Exchange Rates More Accurate than the Time-Series Regression Forecasts? 265 9.1 Introduction, 265 9.2 Panel Data Exchange Rate Determination Studies, 267 9.3 Asymptotic Consequences of Pooling, 268 9.3.1 Predictive Regression Estimated on Full Sample, 268 9.3.2 Out-of-Sample Prediction, 271 9.4 Monte Carlo Study, 272 9.5 An Illustration with Data, 275 9.6 Conclusions, 278 References, 279 10 Carry Trades and Risk 283 10.1 Introduction, 283 10.2 The Carry Trade: Basic Facts, 285 10.2.1 What is a Carry Trade? 285 10.2.2 Measuring the Returns to the Carry Trade, 286 10.3 Pricing the Returns to the Carry Trade, 290 10.4 Empirical Findings, 293 10.4.1 Traditional Risk Factors, 293 10.4.2 Factors Derived from Currency Returns, 299 10.5 Time-Varying Risk and Rare Events, 308 10.6 Conclusion, 311 Acknowledgments, 311 References, 311 11 Currency Fair Value Models 313 11.1 Introduction, 313 11.2 Models/Taxonomy, 315 11.2.1 ‘‘Adjusted PPP’’: Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson and Penn Effects, 315 11.2.2 The Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Family of Models, 316 11.2.3 The Underlying Balance (UB) Approach, 320 11.2.4 External Sustainability (ES) Approach, 324 11.2.5 The Natural Real Exchange Rate (NATREX), 325 11.2.6 The Indirect Fair Value (IFV), 325 11.3 Implementation Choices and Model Characteristics, 328 11.3.1 Horizon/Frequency, 329 11.3.2 Direct Econometric Estimation Versus ‘‘Methods of Calculation’’, 331 11.3.3 Treatment of External Imbalances , 332 11.3.4 Real Versus Nominal Exchange Rates, 333 11.3.5 Bilateral Versus Effective Exchange Rate, 333 11.3.6 Time Series Versus Cross Section or Panel, 336 11.3.7 Model Maintenance, 336 11.4 Conclusion, 337 Acknowledgments, 338 References, 339 12 Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market 343 12.1 Introduction, 343 12.2 The Practice of Technical Analysis, 345 12.2.1 The Philosophy of Technical Analysis, 345 12.2.2 Types of Technical Analysis, 346 12.3 Studies of Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market, 350 12.3.1 Why Study Technical Analysis? 350 12.3.2 Survey Evidence on the Practice of Technical Analysis, 350 12.3.3 Computing Signals and Returns, 351 12.3.4 Early Studies: Skepticism before the Tide Turns, 353 12.3.5 Pattern Recognition, Intraday Data, and Other Exchange Rates, 353 12.4 Explaining The Success of Technical Analysis, 355 12.4.1 Data Snooping, Publication Bias, and Data Mining, 355 12.4.2 Temporal Variation in Trading Rule Returns, 357 12.4.3 Do Technical Trading Returns Compensate Investors for Bearing Risk? 359 12.4.4 Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Create Trading Rule Profits? 361 12.4.5 Do Cognitive Biases Create Trading Rule Profits? 363 12.4.6 Do Markets Adapt to Arbitrage Away Trading Rule Profits? 365 12.5 The Future of Research on Technical Analysis, 366 12.6 Conclusion, 367 Acknowledgments, 368 References, 368 13 Modeling Exchange Rates with Incomplete Information 375 13.1 Introduction, 375 13.2 Basic Monetary Model, 376 13.3 Information Heterogeneity, 379 13.4 Model Uncertainty, 381 13.5 Infrequent Decision Making, 385 13.6 Conclusion, 388 Acknowledgments, 388 References, 389 14 Exchange Rates in a Stochastic Discount Factor Framework 391 14.1 Introduction, 391 14.2 Exchange Rates and Stochastic Discount Factors, 392 14.2.1 Stochastic Discount Factors, 392 14.2.2 Real Exchange Rates and Currency Risk Premia, 395 14.3 Empirical Evidence, 398 14.3.1 From UIP Regressions to Currency Portfolios, 398 14.3.2 Annual Currency Excess Returns and Aggregate Risk, 399 14.3.3 Monthly Currency Excess Returns, 403 14.3.4 Implications for Stochastic Discount Factors, 403 14.3.5 Predictability of Currency Excess Returns, 405 14.4 Models, 407 14.4.1 Habits, 407 14.4.2 Long-Run Risk, 411 14.4.3 Disaster Risk, 414 14.5 Conclusion, 417 References, 417 15 Volatility and Correlation Timing in Active Currency Management 421 15.1 Introduction, 421 15.2 Dynamic Models for Volatility and Correlation, 424 15.2.1 The Set of Multivariate Models, 425 15.2.2 The Set of Univariate Models for Volatility Timing, 427 15.2.3 Pairwise Model Comparisons, 427 15.2.4 Estimation and Forecasting, 427 15.3 The Economic Value of Volatility and Correlation Timing, 428 15.3.1 The Dynamic Strategy, 428 15.3.2 Dynamic Asset Allocation with CRRA Utility, 428 15.3.3 Performance Measures, 429 15.3.4 Transaction Costs, 430 15.4 Parameter Uncertainty in Bayesian Asset Allocation, 430 15.5 Model Uncertainty, 431 15.5.1 The BMA Strategy, 432 15.5.2 The BMW Strategy, 432 15.6 Empirical Results, 432 15.6.1 Data and Descriptive Statistics, 432 15.6.2 Bayesian Estimation, 433 15.6.3 Evaluating Volatility and Correlation Timing, 434 15.7 Conclusion, 440 Appendix A: Univariate Models for Volatility Timing, 442 Appendix B: Parameter Uncertainty and the Predictive Density, 443 Acknowledgments, 444 References, 444 part three FX Markets and Products 16 Active Currency Management Part I: Is There a Premium for Currency Investing (Beta) 453 16.1 Introduction, 453 16.2 Beta in the Foreign Exchange Markets, 455 16.2.1 Understanding the FX Carry Trade, 455 16.2.2 FX Carry as a Broader Strategy, 456 16.2.3 FX Trend-Based Strategies, 458 16.2.4 Value-Based Strategies Within FX, 460 16.2.5 USD Directional Trade, 461 16.2.6 Correlation between these FX Strategies and Other Forms of Beta, 462 16.2.7 Weighted Portfolio of FX Strategies, 463 16.3 Multiple Forms of FX Beta, 465 16.4 Carry FX Indices from Banks, 465 16.5 Trend-Following FX Indices from Banks, 467 16.6 Conclusion, 468 References, 469 17 Active Currency Management Part II: Is There Skill or Alpha in Currency Investing? 471 17.1 Introduction, 471 17.2 Alternative Currency Management Mandates, 473 17.2.1 Features of a Currency Mandate, 473 17.2.2 Structural and Operational Choices, 476 17.2.3 The Alpha Continuum and Implications of Active Currency Mandates, 477 17.3 Benchmarks for Currency Fund Management, 477 17.3.1 A Basic Factor Model for Currency Returns, 479 17.4 Empirical Evidence with the Barclay Currency Traders Index and Individual Fund Managers, 481 17.4.1 Empirical Evidence with the Barclay Currency Traders Index, 481 17.4.2 Individual Currency Manager Returns, 485 17.4.3 Alternative Information Ratio, 493 17.5 Empirical Evidence: Fund Managers on the DB FX Select Platform, 496 17.5.1 Grouping Managers into a Fund of Funds, 496 17.6 Conclusions and Investment Implications, 498 References, 499 18 Currency Hedging for International Bond and Equity Investors 503 18.1 Introduction, 503 18.2 Overview of Empirical Hedging Studies, 504 18.3 Return and Volatility Impact of Currency Hedging, 506 18.3.1 Theoretical Background, 506 18.3.2 Methodology, 508 18.3.3 Summary of Findings on the Return and Volatility Impact of Currency Hedging, 525 18.4 Hedge Instruments—Currency Forwards versus Options, 526 18.4.1 Why Do Hedge Cash Flows Matter? 526 18.4.2 Historical Performance of Hedging with Options, 527 18.4.3 Summary of Findings on Hedging with Options Versus Forwards, 532 18.5 Managing Tracking Error in Forward Hedges, 533 18.5.1 How Often to Rebalance? 533 18.5.2 Trigger-Based Versus Regular Rebalancing, 539 18.5.3 Summary of Findings on Hedge Rebalancing, 539 18.6 Conclusions, 541 References, 543 19 FX Reserve Management 545 19.1 FX Reserve Management, 545 19.2 FX Reserve Uses, 545 19.3 FX Reserve Sources, 546 19.4 Objectives of Reserves Management, 547 19.5 Techniques of Reserve Management, 547 19.6 Historical Perspective, 548 19.7 What Assets Do Central Banks Hold? 549 19.8 Constraints, 550 19.9 External Managers, 551 19.10 Costs of Accumulation and Holding of Reserves, 551 19.11 Diversification, 552 19.12 Challenges to Diversification and Size of Reserves, 552 19.13 Changing Role of the Dollar as the International Reserve Currency, 554 19.14 Reserve Management if the Dollar is Replaced as the Reserve Currency, 557 19.15 Conclusion, 559 Acknowledgments, 559 References, 559 20 High Frequency Finance: Using Scaling Laws to Build Trading Models 563 20.1 Introduction, 563 20.2 The Intrinsic Time Framework, 565 20.3 Scaling Laws, 567 20.3.1 The New Scaling Laws, 568 20.3.2 The Coastline, 573 20.4 The Scale of Market Quakes, 574 20.5 Trading Models, 577 20.5.1 Overview, 577 20.5.2 Coastline Trader, 578 20.5.3 Monthly Statistics, 580 20.6 Conclusion, 582 Acknowledgments, 582 References, 582 21 Algorithmic Execution in Foreign Exchange 585 21.1 Introduction, 585 21.1.1 Drawing from the Equity Market, 586 21.1.2 What is Going to Work for Foreign Exchange? 587 21.2 Key Components of an Algorithmic Execution Framework, 589 21.2.1 Smart Order Routing (SOR), 589 21.2.2 Intelligence, 590 21.2.3 Speed, 591 21.3 Types of Algorithms, 592 21.3.1 Time Slicers, 592 21.3.2 Sweeper, 592 21.3.3 Iceberg, 592 21.3.4 Opportunistic, 592 21.3.5 Participators, 594 21.3.6 Internalization Strategies, 594 21.3.7 Dynamic Algorithms, 595 21.4 What Execution Strategies are Most Effective? 595 21.4.1 Measuring Performance, 596 21.5 Looking Forward, 596 Appendix A, 596 References, 597 22 Foreign Exchange Strategy Based Products 599 22.1 Introduction, 599 22.2 Evolution of the Foreign Exchange Market, 600 22.2.1 Disappointing Early Years, 600 22.2.2 Emergence of ‘‘Puzzles’’ in FX, 601 22.2.3 Growth of FX Market Turnover and Currency Managers, 602 22.3 Foreign Exchange Investable Indices and Strategy-Based Products, 606 22.3.1 Why Profit Opportunities Exist? 606 22.3.2 Beta and Alpha in Foreign Exchange, 607 22.3.3 Why is FX Attractive? 613 22.3.4 Why use Strategy-Based FX Products? 619 22.4 Conclusion, 620 References, 620 23 Foreign Exchange Futures, Forwards, and Swaps 623 23.1 Introduction, 623 23.2 Market Basics and Size, 625 23.2.1 FX Outright Forwards and Futures, 625 23.2.2 FX Swaps and Cross-Currency Swaps, 628 23.2.3 Market Size, 635 23.3 Dislocations of the FX and Cross-Currency Swap Markets under Financial Crises, 637 23.3.1 Japan Premium Case in the Late 1990s, 637 23.3.2 The Global Financial Crisis from 2007, 639 23.4 Conclusion, 643 Acknowledgments, 643 References, 643 24 FX Options and Volatility Derivatives: An Overview from the Buy-Side Perspective 647 24.1 Introduction, 647 24.2 Why Would One Bother with an Option? 648 24.2.1 History, 648 24.2.2 FX Options, 649 24.3 Market for FX Options, 655 24.3.1 Overview, 655 24.3.2 Players, 656 24.3.3 Setting the Price, 658 24.4 Volatility, 660 24.4.1 Overview of Models, 660 24.4.2 Some Stylized Facts and Implied Moments, 664 24.4.3 Is Volatility an Asset Class? 666 24.4.4 Anti-Black Swan Strategies, 674 24.4.5 Black Swan Strategies, 676 24.5 FX Options from the Buy-Side Perspective, 683 24.5.1 Strike versus Leverage, 683 24.5.2 Implied Distribution, 685 24.5.3 Long-Dated Options versus Short-Dated Option, 689 24.5.4 Black Swan Fund, 692 24.5.5 Currency Hedging of Illiquid Assets, 693 Acknowledgment, 695 References, 695 part four FX Markets and Policy 25 A Common Framework for Thinking about Currency Crises 699 25.1 Introduction, 699 25.2 The KFG Model, 701 25.3 Extensions, 706 25.3.1 Attack-Conditional Monetary Policy, 706 25.3.2 Devaluation, 707 25.3.3 Sterilization and Interest Rate Defense, 709 25.3.4 Lender of Last Resort and Currency Crises, 711 25.4 Empirical Work, 713 25.5 Conclusion, 714 References, 715 26 Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market 717 26.1 Introduction, 717 26.2 Official FX Interventions and Reserve Accumulation: Stylized Facts, Motives, and Effects, 721 26.3 Empirical Evidence on the Effectiveness of Official FX Interventions, 725 26.3.1 A Simple Conceptual Framework, 726 26.3.2 Time-Series Approach: Evidence on Effectiveness and Channels, 728 26.3.3 Event-Study Approach: Evidence on Longer-Term Effectiveness, 739 26.4 Conclusions, 746 26.5 Acknowledgements, 746 References, 747 27 Exchange Rate Misalignment—The Case of the Chinese Renminbi 751 27.1 Introduction, 751 27.2 Background, 752 27.3 Undervalued or Overvalued, 754 27.3.1 The FEER Misalignment Estimate, 754 27.3.2 The Penn Effect Regression, 757 27.3.3 Data Revision, 759 27.4 Concluding Remarks, 762 Acknowledgments, 763 References, 763 28 Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime 767 28.1 Five Advantages of Fixed Exchange Rates , 768 28.2 Econometric Evidence on the Bilateral Trade Effects of Currency Regimes, 770 28.2.1 Time-Series Dimension, 771 28.2.2 Omitted Variables, 772 28.2.3 Endogeneity of the Currency Decision, 773 28.2.4 Implausible Magnitude of the Estimate, 774 28.2.5 Country Size, 775 28.3 Five Advantages of Floating Exchange Rates, 775 28.4 How to Weigh Up the Advantages of Fixing Versus Floating, 777 28.5 Country Characteristics That Should Help Determine the Choice of Regime, 778 28.6 Alternative Nominal Anchors, 780 References, 781 Index 785

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Book SynopsisStretching the Brand offers practical and actionable advice on how to extend successful brands into new areas without losing sight of the value of the original brand itself. Examples of brand stretching include Dove soap, which has now been extended to the shampoo and deodorant markets.Trade Review“This is essentially a useful guide for brand managers in organisations without long-term wisdom.” (Brand Strategy, May 2004) “If this review were to be only two words, they would be 'Buy this!' [this] book is an essential, authoritative and easy-to-understand..” (Media Week 4 May 2004) "...an admirable book..." (Management Today, March 2004)Table of ContentsPreface. Acknowledgements. 1. Brand stretch – or brand ego trip? Extension advantages. So why does the success rate suck? Virgin: The biggest ever brand ego trip? Shotgun weddings. Quitting the brand ego trip. Brand added value. Dove: Brand added value in action. The Brand Stretch workout. Key takeouts. Checklist 1: Brand Stretch – or brand ego trip? 2. Step One: Strengthen the core. In shape to stretch? The heart of a healthy brand. Anchoring the core range. Bud and Bud Light: Sun and planets. Risky business. Tango: Taking the eye off the orange ball. Key takeouts. Checklist 2: Strengthen the core. 3. Step Two: Vision. GPS for brands 30 The masterbrand challenges. Less myopic marketing. Blockbuster: Out of the video box. Climbing the brand ladder. Pampers: From bottoms to babies. Axe: Ladders and snakes. Elastic brands. Key takeouts. Checklist 3: Vision. 4. Step Three: Ideas. Start close to home. Moving out. Innovation shortcuts. The fairytale world of innovation. Starbucks’ Frappuccino: Real world innovation. Innokill survival kit. Key takeouts. Checklist 4: Ideas. 5. Step Four: Focus. Meet the seven dwarves. Heroes or zeroes? Bertolli: Virtual venture capital. Dimension one: Brand vision building. Dimension two: Show me the money. The easyGroup story: Murder on the balance sheet. easyGroup summary. Alternatives to going it alone. Key takeouts. Checklist 5: Focus. 6. Step Five: Delivery. Underestimating execution. Nescafé Hot When You Want: Not so hot execution. Brand damage. Brand and deliver. The Apple iPod: White hot execution. Delivering the promise. Key takeouts. Checklist 6: Delivery. 7. Step Six: Brand architecture. The Sorcerer’s Apprentice. Architecture for brands. Houses versus streets. Mono-platform brands. Multi-platform brands. Lego: Building blocks of a new future. When the rubber hits the road. Comfort: Designing a turnaround. Let’s go round again. Key takeouts. Checklist 7: Brand architecture. Appendix 1: Masterbrand positioning tips and tricks. Appendix 2: Example masterbrand positioning tool. Appendix 3: Masterbrand positioning tool template. References. Index.

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Book SynopsisA high level, theoretical and practical look at the latest and most important derivatives pricing models which will include illustrative comic strips and interviews with top traders. Haug aims to bring (an often dry) subject to life through entertaining cartoons and interviews with practitioners.Table of ContentsAuthor’s “Disclaimer” ix Introduction x Derivatives Models on Models xv Nassim Taleb on Black Swans 1 Chapter 1 The Discovery of Fat-Tails in Price Data 17 Edward Thorp on Gambling and Trading 27 Chapter 2 Option Pricing and Hedging from Theory to Practice: Know Your Weapon III 33 1 The Partly Ignored and Forgotten History 34 2 Discrete Dynamic Delta Hedging under Geometric Brownian Motion 44 3 Dynamic Delta Hedging Under Jump-Diffusion 50 4 Equilibrium Models 54 5 Portfolio Construction and Options Against Options 55 6 Conclusions 63 Alan Lewis on Stochastic Volatility and Jumps 71 Chapter 3 Back to Basics: A New Approach to the Discrete Dividend Problem 79Together with Jørgen Haug and Alan Lewis 1 Introduction 79 2 General Solution 82 3 Dividend Models 87 4 Applications 89 Emanuel Derman the Wall Street Quant 101 Chapter 4 Closed Form Valuation of American Barrier Options 115 1 Analytical Valuation of American Barrier Options 115 2 Numerical Comparison 116 3 Conclusion 118 Peter Carr, The Wall Street Wizard of Option Symmetry and Volatility 121 Chapter 5 Valuation of Complex Barrier Options Using Barrier Symmetry 129 1 Plain Vanilla Put–Call Symmetry 129 2 Barrier Put–Call Symmetry 130 3 Simple, Intuitive and Accurate Valuation of Double Barrier Options 132 4 Static Hedging in the Real World 137 5 Conclusion 138 Granger on Cointegration 141 Chapter 6 Knock-in/out Margrabe 145with Jørgen Haug 1 Margrabe Options 145 2 Knock-in/out Margrabe Options 146 3 Applications 147 Stephen Ross on APT 153 Chapter 7 Resetting Strikes, Barriers and Time 157with Jørgen Haug 1 Introduction 157 2 Reset Strike Barrier Options 160 3 Reset Barrier Options 161 4 Resetting Time 162 5 Conclusion 163 Bruno Dupire the Stochastic Wall Street Quant 167 Chapter 8 Asian Pyramid Power 177with Jørgen Haug and William Margrabe 1 Celia in Derivativesland 177 2 Calibrating to the Term Structure of Volatility 180 3 From Geometric to Arithmetic 184 4 The Dollars 185 Eduardo Schwartz: the Yoga Master of Mathematical Finance 191 Chapter 9 Practical Valuation of Power Derivatives 197 1 Introduction 197 2 Energy Swaps/Forwards 199 3 Power Options 202 4 Still, What About Fat-Tails? 209 Aaron Brown on Gambling, Poker and Trading 211 Chapter 10 A Look in the Antimatter Mirror 223 1 Garbage in, Garbage Out? 223 2 Conclusion 227 Knut Aase on Catastrophes and Financial Economics 231 Chapter 11 Negative Volatility and the Survival of the Western Financial Markets 239Knut K. Aase 1 Introduction 239 2 Negative Volatility – A Direct Approach 240 3 The Value of a European Call Option for any Value – Positive or Negative – of the Volatility 240 4 Negative Volatility – The Haug interpretation 242 5 Chaotic Behavior from Deterministic Dynamics 242 6 Conclusions 243 Elie Ayache on Option Trading and Modeling 247 Chapter 12 Frozen Time Arbitrage 267 1 Time Measure Arbitrage 268 2 Time Travel Arbitrage 269 3 Conclusion 273 Haug on Wilmott and Wilmott on Wilmott 277 Chapter 13 Space-time Finance The Relativity Theory’s Implications for Mathematical Finance 287 1 Introduction 287 2 Time dilation 290 3 Advanced stage of Space-time Finance 292 4 Space-time Uncertainty 293 5 Is High Speed Velocity Possible? 295 6 Black-Scholes in Special Relativity 299 7 Relativity and Fat-Tailed Distributions 301 8 General Relativity and Space-time Finance 302 9 Was Einstein Right? 305 10 Traveling Back in Time Using Wormholes 307 11 Conclusion 308 Andrei Khrennikov on Negative Probabilities 317 Chapter 14 Why so Negative about Negative Probabilities? 323 1 The History of Negative Probability 323 2 Negative Probabilities in Quantitative Finance 324 3 Getting the Negative Probabilities to Really Work in Your Favor 327 4 Hidden Variables in Finance 328 5 The Future of Negative Probabilities in Quantitative Finance 329 6 Appendix: Negative Probabilities in CRR Equivalent Trinomial Tree 330 David Bates on Crash and Jumps 335 Chapter 15 Hidden Conditions and Coin Flip Blow Up’s 343 1 Blowing Up 343 2 Coin Flip Blow Up’s 344 Peter Jáckel on Monte Carlo Simulation 349 Index 359

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Book SynopsisWhen Orange County, California, filed for Chapter 9 protection on December 6, 1994, it became the largest municipality in United States history to declare bankruptcy. Presenting an analysis of this momentous fiscal crisis, this title uncovers the many twists and turns from the dark days in December 1994 to the financial recovery of June 1996.

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Book SynopsisLTCM was the fund that was too big to fail, the brightest star in the financial world. Built on genius, by legends of Wall Street and two Nobel laureates, it spiralled to ever greater heights, commanding unimaginable wealth. When it fell to earth in September 1998 it shook the world. This is the story of the rise and fall of LTCM and the legends behind it. A brave and ambitious work, Inventing Money was written by leading financial journalist Nicholas Dunbar.Table of ContentsPreface to the Paperback Edition. Acknowledgements. Introduction. The Theory of Speculation. The Science of Fear and Greed. Trading in Time. The Garden of Forking Paths. The Warning. The Dream Team. Out of Control. The Song of a Martingale. Aftermath. Sources and Further Reading. Index.

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Book SynopsisTrading Classic Chart Patternsprovides traders with practical solutions for profitably implementing popular chart patterns. Written for the novice investor, but with techniques for the professional, this sensible resource includes easy-to-use performance tables supported by statistical research.Table of ContentsIntroduction. Part One: Getting Started. 1 Down Trendlines. 2 Up Trendlines. 3 Support and Resistance. 4 Stops, Bats, and Selling. 5 Common Trading Mistakes. Part Two: Chart Patterns Reference Section. 6 Broadening Tops. 7 Diamonds. 8 Double Bottoms. 9 Double Tops. 10 Head-and-Shoulders Bottoms. 11 Head-and-Shoulders Tops. 12 Rectangles. 13 Scallops, Ascending. 14 Scallops, Descending. 15 Triangles, Ascending. 16 Triangles, Descending. 17 Triangles, Symmetrical. 18 Triple Bottoms. 19 Triple Tops. Statistics Summary and Analysis. Glossary and Methodology. Index.

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Book SynopsisTable of ContentsThe Hero’s Journey v Introduction ix Chapter 1: The Path to Disaster: The Product Development Model 1 Chapter 2: The Path to Epiphany: The Customer Development Model 23 Chapter 3: Customer Discovery 40 Chapter 4: Customer Validation 104 Chapter 5: Customer Creation 156 Chapter 6: Company Building 206 Bibliography 265 Appendix A: Customer Development Team 280 Appendix B: Customer Development Checklist 288 Acknowledgments 367 About the Author 369

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Book SynopsisThe book behind the Netflix series, starring Octavia Spencer'One of the most fabulous African-American figures of the twentieth century' Ishmael ReedMadam Walker was the first free-born child in her family, growing up in abject poverty in post-Civil War America. From humble beginnings, she overcame societal prejudice, family betrayals and epic business rivalries to pioneer cosmetics that revolutionised black hair care, build a beauty empire, and become one of the wealthiest self-made women in America. Not only an astute businesswoman, but a passionate activist and philanthropist, Madam Walker provided jobs and training for thousands of African American women across the country, and used her wealth to fight for equality, forming friendships with important civil rights voices such as W. E. B. Du Bois, Booker T. Washington and Ida B. Wells-Barnett along the way. Drawn from more than two decades of research by her great-great-granddaughter, journalist and historian A'Lelia Bundles, Self Made is the definitive biography of Madam Walker's inspirational life and an illuminating insight into the larger African American struggle in the early twentieth century.'An important piece of history' Washington Post'A fascinating portrait of an astonishing woman' Kirkus ReviewsPreviously published as On Her Own GroundTrade ReviewA fascinating book about a fascinating woman . . . a wonderful story of an entrepreneur, but also a story about a dedicated African-American woman who was committed to giving her time and money to her community - USA TodayBundles tells the tale with obvious affection and impressive scholarship . . .Walker's fable comes up fresh and inspirational - Chicago TribuneWell-paced and well-written . . . as much social history as biography, filled with the detail and texture of culture and politics - New York TimesVivdly recounts the rise of the washerwoman who would light the way for other black businesswomen, bankroll YMCAs and lead an anti-lynching campaign all the way to the White House - People magazine

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Book SynopsisWhen managers and marketers outline their social media strategies, they often plan for the right hook - their next highly anticipated sale or campaign that's going to put the competition out for the count. Right hooks, after all, convert traffic to sales. This book offers a blueprint to social media marketing strategies that really works.

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Book SynopsisThis new edition Workbook has been fully updated for 2019 and covers Theme 4 A global perspective A-level Paper 2 The national and global economy, and A-level Paper 3 Microeconomics and Macroeconomics will both draw on topics from Theme 4.Up-to-date and focused to help students practice their skills and improve their subject knowledge both inside and outside the classroom, this Practice Workbook:-Covers specific aspects of the course, providing targeted support for complex and challenging topics-Reinforces students' understanding, with more new practice questions and exam-style questions to develop their skills and improve their confidence-Includes more sample answers with commentary to help students meet the demands of the specification-Adapts easily and flexibly to existing textbooks and schemes of work -Provides opportunities for self-directed learning and self-testing, helping students revise on their own terms

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Book SynopsisCelebrating 180 years of the iconic Cunard Line, the world’s most famous shipping company

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"The most complete, enjoyable, and worthwhile textbook treating both traditional and modern microeconomic theory." * Journal of Economics *

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Book SynopsisTable of ContentsForeword ix Why We Never Say Sell Section 1: Who We are and the Problems We Want to Solve 3 1 From Foothold to Footprint 5 Section 2: The Imperative and the Opportunity 15 2 Learning to Farm 17 3 The Diamond of Opportunity 26 Section 3: The Challenges 41 4 The Challenge of Knowing Too Much about the Wrong Thing 43 5 The Challenge of Complex Organizations 52 6 The Challenge of Serving Complex Networks 57 7 The Challenge of Introducing Your Colleagues 66 8 The Challenge of Scale 71 How We Can Help Section 4: Farming for Knowledge 85 9 Know Thyself 87 10 Know Thy Client 101 11 The Secrets of Diamond Account Planning 111 Section 5: The Seven Disciplines of Successful Farming 119 12 Discipline 1: Do Good Work 121 13 Discipline 2: Be a Good Friend 138 14 Discipline 3: Leverage Your Team 150 15 Discipline 4: Incent Good Work 157 16 Discipline 5: Listen 165 17 Discipline 6: Tell Great Stories 169 18 Discipline 7: Master the Art of the Ask 176 Section 6: Seeds of Change 185 19 The Power of Peers 187 20 The Power of Routers 197 21 The Power of Technology 207 22 The Power of Experience and Insight 217 Further Reading 223 Acknowledgments 225 About the Authors 227 Index 229

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Book SynopsisJeffrey D. Sachs shows how the United States can find a path to renewed economic progress that is fair and environmentally sustainable. Sachs explores issues including infrastructure, trade deals, energy policy, and income inequality, providing illuminating and accessible explanations of the forces at work and specific policy solutions.Trade ReviewJeffrey Sachs remains one of the most thought-provoking economists in the world today because he dares to challenge presidents of both parties and the orthodoxies that bind them to disastrous policies. His critiques are fierce and his solutions fearless in the face of political and academic groupthink. That makes Professor Sachs a rarity in public life and this book an absolute necessity. -- Joe Scarborough My father famously declared that GDP "measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country; it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile." Jeffrey Sachs presents an economic vision beyond GDP, one that is based on compassion and sustainability, and that aligns with the globally agreed Sustainable Development Goals. This is a roadmap for America's future economic strategy. -- Kerry Kennedy, president of the Robert F. Kennedy Center for Justice and Human RightsTable of ContentsForeword, by Bernie Sanders Preface Acknowledgments 1. Why We Need to Build a New American Economy 2. Investment, Saving, and U.S. Long-Term Growth 3. Decoding the Federal Budget 4. Sustainable Infrastructure After the Automobile Age 5. Facing Up to Income Inequality 6. Smart Machines and the Future of Jobs 7. The Truth About Trade 8. Disparities and High Costs Fuel the Health Care Crisis 9. A Smart Energy Policy for the United States 10. From Guns to Butter 11. Investing for Innovation 12. Toward a New Kind of Politics 13. Restoring Trust in American Governance 14. Prosperity in Sustainability Suggested Further Readings Notes

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Book SynopsisContemporary Labor Economics 12e presents labor economics as an applied field of micro and macro theory. The authors deliver new and updated discussions of economic trends, public policy issues, content coverage and World of Work examples to help students apply labor economics, while still integrating traditional topics. A consistent framework, as well as a clear, direct and uncluttered writing style, help students grasp concepts regardless of their background training in economics. Connect Economics (McGraw-Hill''s online assignment and assessment tool) pairs with McConnell to provide assignable, auto-gradable versions of the reading and test bank content. Students receive detailed step-by-step feed back on assignments and assignable content is fully integrated with the eBook. Students are also able to search, highlight, and take notes within the ReadAnywhere eBook and complete SmartBook 2.0 assignments offline. Connect provides instructors with powerTable of ContentsChapter 1: Labor Economics: Introduction and OverviewChapter 2: The Theory of Individual Labor SupplyChapter 3: Population, Participation Rates, and Hours ofWorkChapter 4: Labor Quality: Investing in Human CapitalChapter 5: The Demand for LaborChapter 6: Wage Determination and the Allocation of LaborChapter 7: Alternative Pay Schemes and Labor EfficiencyChapter 8: The Wage StructureChapter 9: Mobility, Migration, and EfficiencyChapter 10: Labor Unions and Collective BargainingChapter 11: The Economic Impact of UnionsChapter 12: Government and the Labor Market: Employment,Expenditures, and TaxationChapter 13: Government and the Labor Market: Legislation andRegulationChapter 14: Labor Market DiscriminationChapter 15: Job Search: External and InternalChapter 16: The Distribution of Personal EarningsChapter 17: Labor Productivity: Wages, Prices, andEmploymentChapter 18: Employment and UnemploymentAppendix: Information Sources in Labor Economics

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Book SynopsisThe inside story of what really happened at Lehman Brothers and why it failed In The Devil's Casino: Friendship, Betrayal, and the High Stakes Games Played Inside Lehman Brothers, investigative writer and Vanity Fair contributing editor Vicky Ward takes readers inside Lehman's highly charged offices.Table of ContentsCast of Characters. Prologue. Part One: The Ponderosa Boys. Chapter 1. A Long, Hot Summer. Chapter 2. The Beginning. Chapter 3. The Captain. Chapter 4. The “Take-Under”. Chapter 5. Slamex. Chapter 6. The Phoenix Rises. Chapter 7. Independence Day. Chapter 8. The Stiletto. Chapter 9. The Ides of March. Chapter 10. Eulogies. Part Two: The Echo Chamber. Chapter 11. Russian Winter. Chapter 12. Lehman’s Desperate Housewives. Chapter 13. The Young Lions. Chapter 14. 9/11. Chapter 15. No Ordinary Joe. Chapter 16. The Talking Head. Chapter 17. The Sacrificial Ram. Chapter 18. Korea’s Rising Sum. Chapter 19. The Wart on the End of Lehman’s Nose. Chapter 20. Damned Flood? Chapter 21. Closing the Books. Epilogue. A Note About the Sources. Notes. References. Acknowledgments. Index.

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Book SynopsisAn expert reveals a step-by-step process for profiting from neoclassical qualified trend trading Trend Trading Set-Ups extends the neoclassical concept of qualified trend first introduced by Little in Trend Qualification and Trading, providing traders and investors with a sound methodology for uncovering the very best trade set-ups and the ability to time trade entries like never before. In Trend Trading Set-Ups, Little reveals the data behind qualified trends and utilizes a novel concept involving time to calculate trend failure probability rates. Little reduces the complex to its most simplistic form compressing all trades types into just two classes retraces and breakouts. Once simplified, over a decade worth of qualified trend data is examined. The result is a comprehensive presentation of what makes some trades enormously better than others and how you can both find and exploit the most favorable trade set-ups. SomTable of ContentsForeword ix Acknowledgments xi Introduction 1 PART I 7 CHAPTER 1 Identifying and Qualifying Trend Probabilities 9 Trend Determination 10 Qualified Trend Failure Probabilities 13 Qualified Trade Failure Probabilities 31 Summary 37 CHAPTER 2 Anchor Zones: The Key to Timing Trades 41 Anchor Bars and Zones 42 Reconsidering Trade Failures 46 Summary 54 CHAPTER 3 Broader Influences Affecting Stocks 55 Sector Congruence 59 Virtual Industry Groups—Future Direction 72 General Market Congruence 74 Summary 81 PART II 85 CHAPTER 4 Formulating a Workable Trading Plan 89 Trend Direction and Strength 90 Time Frames 94 Entry and Exit Timing 95 Trading Size, Scale Trading, Trade Success Probabilities, and Reward-to-Risk Ratio 100 Evaluating and Acting Upon the Plan 104 Summary 105 CHAPTER 5 The Data behind Trend Trade Set-Ups 107 The Only Two Types of Trade Set-Ups 108 Trading Breakouts and Retraces 111 Breakouts versus Retrace Trade Probabilities 113 Probabilities for Trade Set-Up Scenarios 122 Summary 133 CHAPTER 6 Sideways Range Trades 135 Trade Set-Up Conditions and Categorizations 136 Trading Sideways Trends 137 Summary 155 CHAPTER 7 Breakout and Retrace Trade Set-Ups 157 Retrace Trade Set-Ups 158 Breakout Trade Set-Ups 186 Considering Other Trade Set-Ups 199 Trade Set-Up Rationale and Thoughts 201 Summary 205 Conclusion: Unleashing Trade Potential 207 Appendix: Data Tables 209 About the Author 241 Index 243

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Book SynopsisA guide to being a trusted advisor for leaders in any industry. It provides answers to pervasive questions about trust and leadership - such as how to develop business with trust, nurture trust-based relationships, build and run a trustworthy organization, and develop your trust skill set.Table of ContentsIntroduction xvi Why a Fieldbook xvi Who Should Read this Book xvi How to Use this Book xvii Where to Begin xvii Part I A Trust Primer 1 Chapter 1 Fundamental Truths 3 Trust Requires Trusting and Being Trusted 3 Trust Is Personal 3 Trust Is about Relationships 4 Trust Is Created in Interactions 4 There Is No Trust without Risk 4 Trust Is Paradoxical 5 Listening Drives Trust and Influence 5 Trust Does Not Take Time 5 Trust Is Strong and Durable, Not Fragile 6 You Get What You Give 7 Chapter 2 Fundamental Attitudes 9 Principles over Processes 9 You Are More Connected than You Think 11 It’s Not about You 11 Curiosity Trumps Knowing 11 Time Works for You 13 Chapter 3 The Dynamics of Influence 15 Earning the Right to Be Right: Three Steps 15 A Five-Point Checklist for Influencing Meetings 18 Chapter 4 Three Trust Models 22 The Trust Equation 22 The Trust Creation Process 25 The Trust Principles 26 Chapter 5 Five Trust Skills 33 Listen 33 Partner 34 Improvise 35 Risk 35 Know Yourself 36 Part II Developing Your Trust Skill Set 39 Chapter 6 Listen 41 The Listening Differentiator: Empathy 41 Four Barriers to Paying Attention 42 Three-Level Listening 43 Seven Listening Best Practices 47 Your Everyday Empathy Workout: Low Weights, High Reps 48 Chapter 7 Partner 51 Partnering Traits 51 Ten Common Partnering Barriers 52 Self-Assessment: Are You Primed for Partnership? 54 Specific Ways to Build Your Partnering Muscle 55 Chapter 8 Improvise 61 The Science behind Moments of Truth 62 How Moments of Truth Become Moments of Mastery 62 The Practice of Improvisation 62 Role-Play Your Way to Mastery 64 Chapter 9 Risk 68 The Relationship between Trust and Risk 69 Six Ways to Practice Risk-Taking 70 The Three-Question Transparency Test 71 A Tool for Truth-Telling: Name It and Claim It 72 The Power of Caveats 74 Chapter 10 Know Yourself 79 How Blind Spots Impede Trust-Building 79 Three Approaches to Expand Your Self-Knowledge 80 How to Use Self-Knowledge to Increase Trust 82 Part III Developing Business with Trust 85 Chapter 11 Trust-Based Marketing and Business Development 87 Focus on Your Customer 87 Collaborate to Drive New Business 89 Focus on Relationships, Not Transactions 90 Be Transparent with Prospects and Clients 91 Chapter 12 Trust-Based Networking 94 Ten Best Practices for Trust-Based Networking 95 Technology and Trust-Based Networking 97 Chapter 13 Delivering the Pitch 102 Sometimes the Best Pitch Is No Pitch 102 Don’t Skip the Prepitch Warm-Up 103 Make It Interactive 104 Have a Point of View 105 Take the Preoccupation Out of Price 105 With PowerPoint, Less Is More 106 Stop Selling Your Qualifications 106 Do Not Denigrate the Competition 107 Be Willing to Ditch the Pitch 107 Chapter 14 Handling Objections 110 The Problem: How You Think about Objections 110 The Antidote: Change Your Thinking 112 Three Ways to Improve the Quality of Your Conversations 113 Chapter 15 Talking Price 117 The Price Isn’t the Problem 118 When to Talk Price 119 How to Address Price Concerns 120 The Three Primary Drivers of Price Concerns 121 A Special Case: The Engineer Buyer 123 Chapter 16 Closing the Deal 125 Six Reasons Not to Always Be Closing 125 Five Practices to Stop Closing and Start Helping 127 Chapter 17 Developing New Business with Existing Clients 130 First, Deepen the Relationship 130 Move Upstream 131 Cross-Sell 132 Seek Referrals 133 Chapter 18 Selling to the C-Suite 136 What Sets the C-Suite Apart 136 A Different Kind of Preparation 136 Nine Best Practices for Successful C-Suite Meetings 139 Chapter 19 Reviving Stalled Relationships 143 How to Reengage 144 When It’s Time to Walk Away 145 Part IV Managing Relationships with Trust 149 Chapter 20 Starting Off Right 151 Three Ways Kickoffs Go Wrong 151 Four Key Ingredients for a Successful Kickoff 153 A Word of Caution 154 Chapter 21 Accelerating Trust 156 Three Steps for Creating Trust Quickly 157 21 Ways to Build Trust … Fast 158 Chapter 22 Navigating Politics 163 Seven Best Practices for Dealing with Organizational Politics 164 The Special Challenges of Client Politics 165 Chapter 23 Shifting from Tactics to Strategy 169 The Strategy Blind Spot 169 Four Key Questions to Shift the Conversation 170 How to Engage Strategically 173 Chapter 24 My Client Is a Jerk: Transforming Relationships Gone Bad 176 What Lies Behind Bad Behavior 176 From Difficult to Rewarding: Three Steps 177 Reframing: Five Steps to a Better Problem Statement 180 Chapter 25 Dealing with Untrustworthy People 183 Blame and an Inability to Confront 183 Constructive Confrontation 184 When You Can’t Confront 186 When to Walk Away 186 Chapter 26 Trust-Based Negotiations 189 Where Negotiations Go Wrong 189 Changing the Game by Working from Trust 191 Chapter 27 Building Trust at a Distance 195 The Key to Building Trust at a Distance: Familiarity 196 The Role of Technology in Communication 198 Ten Best Practices for Managing Virtual Teams 199 Part V Building and Running a Trustworthy Organization 201 Chapter 28 Making the Case for Trust 203 Economic Benefits of Trust 203 Social Benefits of Trust 206 Ethical Benefits of Trust 206 Chapter 29 Creating a Culture of Trust 209 Two Keys to Trust Culture Change: Virtues and Values 209 Implementing Trust Initiatives 211 Spotlight on Trust Diagnostics 215 Chapter 30 Trust in Internal Staff Functions 219 The Top Trust Barriers by Function 220 Five Trust-Enhancing Opportunities for Internal Staff 220 Don’t Confuse Your Metrics with Your Mission 222 Chapter 31 Training for Trustworthiness 225 The One-Two Punch for Trustworthiness Training 225 How to Set Off the Aha: A Nine-Point Checklist 227 Eleven Ways to Make It Stick 228 Create the Right Learning Environment 229 List of Lists Chapter 1 Fundamental Truths 233 Chapter 2 Fundamental Attitudes 233 Chapter 3 The Dynamics of Influence 233 Chapter 4 Three Trust Models 234 Chapter 5 Five Trust Skills 235 Chapter 6 Listen 236 Chapter 7 Partner 237 Chapter 8 Improvise 237 Chapter 9 Risk 238 Chapter 10 Know Yourself 239 Chapter 11 Trust-Based Marketing and Business Development 239 Chapter 13 Delivering the Pitch 241 Chapter 14 Handling Objections 242 Chapter 15 Talking Price 243 Chapter 16 Closing the Deal 244 Chapter 17 Developing New Business with Existing Clients 244 Chapter 18 Selling to the C-Suite 245 Chapter 19 Reviving Stalled Relationships 245 Chapter 20 Starting Off Right 246 Chapter 21 Accelerating Trust 246 Chapter 22 Navigating Politics 247 Chapter 23: Shifting from Tactics to Strategy 248 Chapter 24 My Client Is a Jerk: Transforming Relationships Gone Bad 249 Chapter 25 Dealing with Untrustworthy People 249 Chapter 26 Trust-Based Negotiations 250 Chapter 27 Building Trust at a Distance 251 Chapter 28 Making the Case for Trust 252 Chapter 29 Creating a Culture of Trust 252 Chapter 30 Trust in Internal Staff Functions 254 Chapter 31 Training for Trustworthiness 254 Notes 257 Selected Bibliography 263 About the Authors 264 Index 265

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Book SynopsisDrawing on the knowledge and experience of working with hundreds the world's top social change leaders in all fields, the author presents a model for change based on five proven principles that any individual leader or organization can apply to bring about deep, lasting and systematic change.Table of ContentsForeword By Bill Drayton xi Prologue xv Introduction: Rippling Solutions Into System Change 1 Part One Restructuring Institutional Norms 18Reflections by Esther Dyson 1 Power to the People—Germany 22How Elektrizitatswerke Sch¨onau works with communities to buy back, manage, and control electric grids so it can replace nuclear power with renewable sources of energy. 2 The Teaching of Teaching—United States 32Changing the dynamics of how and what teachers teach; appreciating the vision of the Center for Inspired Teaching. 3 From Servitude to Solution—India 42How the Rickshaw Bank is reinventing the lives and livelihoods of rickshaw drivers. 4 Lifting the Veil for Women Who Don’t Exist—Nepal 54Removing age-old restrictions on women who lose their rights, property, and freedom after the death of their husband; understanding how Women’s Human Rights is changing the face of Asia. Part Two Changing Market Dynamics 64Reflections by Peter M. Senge 5 Using MicroConsignment to Open a Door to Economic Inclusion—Guatemala 68Exploring the way Community Enterprise Solutions offers ‘‘a basket of solutions’’ to rural villagers by lowering the cost of economic entry for suppliers. 6 Dialing Maize 411—Kenya 84Using technology to connect small-scale farmers with real-time competitive prices; how the Kenya Agricultural Commodities Exchange improves the lives of small farmers. 7 Stimulating Fiscal Vibrancy by Creating a New Economy—Brazil 94Stimulating local economies by creating a new currency and a system of community banks for low-income citizens; the story of Bancos Palmas. Part Three Using Market Forces to Create Social Value 104Reflections by William Jefferson Clinton 8 From Garbage to Gold—Peru 108How Ciudad Saludable creates microenterprises around garbage collection and increases the economic viability and positive health outcomes of communities in which they operate. 9 A Better Model of Capitalism—United States 120Ensuring a fair price for farmers by transforming global trade practices; the influence of FairTrade USA on American consumers and its impact on families around the world. 10 Shit Business Is Serious Business—Nigeria 134Building a culture of sanitation and hygiene in crowded urban areas in Africa and Asia; why DMT Mobile Toilets is literally changing the landscape and much more. 11 Putting the Public Back in Public Housing—France 146Applying a quintuple bottom line to eco-housing, Chenelet energizes low-income neighborhoods while creating community with dignity and grace. Part Four Advancing Full Citizenship 156Reflections by Geeta Rao Gupta 12 Financial Freedom for Children—Global 160Equipping a generation of youth to take charge of their financial survival, Aflatoun balances the scales in favor of their future. 13 Overcoming the Barriers Between Us and Them—Germany 170Redefining disability as ability and otherness as likeness; the story of Dialogue Social Enterprise, creator of the ‘‘Dialogue in the Dark’’ experience. 14 Autistic Abilities—Denmark 180How Specialisterne (Specialist People Foundation) is transforming autism from a handicap to a competitive advantage. 15 Crazy Becomes Normal—Argentina 190Reconnecting the mentally ill with society and vice versa, La Colifata uses a weekly radio show broadcast by the patients as the link. Part Five Cultivating Empathy 200Reflections by Arianna Huffington 16 From Babies to Behavioral Shift—Canada 204The effectiveness of Roots of Empathy in ending aggressive behavior among children. 17 Cultivating Champions of Interfaith Action—United States 214Building widespread public support for interfaith youth work on University campuses; embracing the mission of the Interfaith Youth Core. 18 Beautiful Resistance—Palestine 224How Alrowwad creates a space to express normality in conflict zones. 19 Conclusion: Turning What Is and What If into What Can Be 236Epilogue: How To Think About Tomorrow 248 Notes 251 Acknowledgments 256 About The Author 258 Index 261

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Book SynopsisAs the workforce ages and younger trainers and managers emerge, facilitation skills take on a new importance and, with the increased use of social networks, new facilitation skills are needed. Written by two facilitation gurus, this book shows how to make any learning environment come alive. It outlines proven guidelines any trainer can use to unify groups, inspire creativity, and get audiences, teams, and colleagues to speak up, talk back, participate, and engage in meetings.Table of ContentsPreface xi Acknowledgments xiii About the Authors xv Introduction xvii One Heard on the Street: The Audience Does Know! 1 The Audience Doesn’t Lie 1 It’s About Time! 6 It All Begins with Courage 7 Three Keys to Facilitate Fearlessly 8 And on a Final and Very Important Note 16 Coach’s Comments 16 Two Organic Facilitation 19 Organic Facilitation Is Less Known 20 Organic Facilitation Is Healthier in the Long Run 21 Organic Facilitation Takes Time to Perfect (or, Actually, Make Appear Imperfect) 22 Intimacy Is Key 23 Coach’s Comments 29 Three The Fourth Wall 33 The Wall It’s OK to Break 33 Food, Fun, and Safety 34 Five Tools for Your Fearless Tool Bag 37 Three Rules for Breaking the Wall 38 Dance Naked! The Wisdom Is in the Room 39 How to Work (and Not Work) the Room 39 How Fred Friedman Broke the Fourth Wall 41 Coach’s Comments 42 Four Have Fun with One or with One Hundred 45 Take It Professionally, Not Personally 47 As You Begin, Notice Who Is “with” You Through Their Reactions, Eye Contact, or What Seems to Be Working, Even in a Small Way 48 Be Ready to Adapt 51 Know That You Can’t Win Them All 53 Yes, Facilitation Works with Very Large Audiences! 54 Adapting to an Unexpectedly Small Audience 56 Coach’s Comments 57 Five Dialogue Not Monologue (Worse, Duologue) 61 Conversation Is Not Easy for Most 61 Can You Converse Without a Cocktail? 62 Conversation: Begin at the Beginning 64 The Break Is Never Really a Break 65 Dialogue During Your Meeting 66 Dialogue Post-Meeting 66 Coach’s Comments 67 Six The Set-Up: Making It Happen 71 The Learning Environment 72 You Can Always Facilitate, No Matter the Circumstances 75 Lessons from One Executive’s Transformation 77 Coach’s Comments 80 Seven Listen Live, Then Disappear! 85 What Oprah and Larry Know 86 What the Best Do Not Do 88 What the Journalist Uncovers 89 What the Orchestra Conductor Knows 90 What the Sales Professional Knows 93 Really Good Facilitators Use These Questions 94 Really Good Facilitators Avoid These Questions 97 What Listening Live Is Not 101 Timing Is Everything 102 Your Natural Resources 105 Coach’s Comments 105 Eight Go with It! 107 Take What They Give You 108 Trust! 108 When You Know More and They Came to Hear It 108 When You Need to (and Should) Keep Emotion at Bay 110 When You Can’t Think and Hit at the Same Time 111 Home Run! 112 Coach’s Comments 113 Nine It’s About the Audience, First and Always, in All Ways! 115 What a Ninety-One-Year-Old Knows 117 What a Professional Magician Knows 119 What an Eighth-Grade Teacher Knows 120 What Engineers Know 121 Connection Is Never Perfection 122 What the Professional Comedian Knows 123 Audiences Will React Differently to the Same Story 125 Avoid Death by Committee 126 Ten Yikes! A Whole Room Full of 131 When Times Go Less Well Than Planned 132 People and Groups Who Exhibit Predictable Challenges 133 People Who Are Disconnected 138 Only One Person to Facilitate 142 In Your Writing, Especially When You Need to Persuade 146 Gaining Traction 146 Keeping Momentum 147 When All Else Fails People Who Won’t Change, No Matter What 148 Coach’s Comments 150 Eleven Conclusion: Now Is the Beginning of Your New Skill 153 Appendix A: Sure Things: Eight Discussion Topics That Never Fail 155 Appendix B: Four Keys to Making It Easier 157 Appendix C: Momentum Magic 161 Appendix D: Oops! When Meetings Don’t Go So Well 163 Appendix E: Techniques for Teleconference and Virtual Meeting Facilitation 167 Index 169

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Book SynopsisNew edition of a classic guide to ensuring effective organizational performance Thoroughly revised and updated, the second edition of Managing and Measuring Performance in Public and Nonprofit Organizations is a comprehensive resource for designing and implementing effective performance management and measurement systems in public and nonprofit organizations. The ideas, tools, and processes in this vital resource are designed to help organizations develop measurement systems to support such effective management approaches as strategic management, results-based budgeting, performance management, process improvement, performance contracting, and much more. The book will help readers identify outcomes and other performance criteria to be measured, tie measures to goals and objectives, define and evaluate the worth of desired performance measures, and analyze, process, report, and utilize data effectively. Includes significant updates that offer a moreTable of ContentsPreface Acknowledgments Part 1: Introduction to Performance Management 1. Introduction to Performance Management and Measurement 2. Developing Useful Performance Management Systems Part 2: The Performance Management Process 3. Developing a Performance Framework 4. Targeting Results: Clarifying Goals and Objectives 5. Defining Performance Indicators 6. Reporting Performance Data 7. Analyzing Performance Information Part 3: Strategic Applications of Performance Management Principles 1. Using Performance Measures to Support Strategic Planning and Management 2. Performance-Informed Budgeting 3. Managing Employees, Programs and Organizational Units 4. Performance Management in Grant and Contract Programs 5. Improving Quality and Process 6. Soliciting Stakeholder Feedback 7. Using Comparative Measures to Benchmark Performance Part 4: Design and Implementation of Performance Management Processes 1. Designing and Implementing Effective Management Systems The Authors Index

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Book SynopsisCovers commodity option pricing for quantitative analysts, traders or structures in banks, hedge funds and commodity trading companies. Based on the author's industry experience with commodity derivatives, this book provides a thorough and mathematical introduction to the various market conventions and models used in commodity option pricing.Table of ContentsAcknowledgements xv Notation xvii List of Figures xix List of Tables xxiii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Trade, Commerce and Commodities 3 1.2 Adapting to Commodities as an Asset Class 8 1.2.1 Classification of Commodities into Sub-categories 9 1.3 Challenges in Commodity Models 12 1.3.1 Futures 12 1.3.2 Correlation 12 1.3.3 Seasonality 15 1.3.4 American and Asian Features 15 2 Commodity Mathematics and Products 17 2.1 Spot, Forwards and Futures 17 2.1.1 Spot 18 2.1.2 Forwards 19 2.1.3 Futures 20 2.2 The Black–Scholes and Black-76 Models 24 2.2.1 The Black–Scholes Model 24 2.2.2 The Black–Scholes Model Without Convenience Yield 25 2.2.3 The Black–Scholes Model With Convenience Yield 26 2.2.4 The Black-76 Model 28 2.2.5 Risk-Neutral Valuation 35 2.2.6 Forwards 36 2.2.7 The Black–Scholes Term Structure Model 38 2.3 Forward and Futures Contracts 39 2.3.1 Forwards 39 2.3.2 Futures 39 2.3.3 Case Study 40 2.4 Commodity Swaps 42 2.5 European Options 44 2.5.1 European Options on Spot 45 2.5.2 European Options on Futures 49 2.5.3 Settlement Adjustments 49 2.6 American Options 50 2.6.1 Barone-Adesi and Whaley (1987) 50 2.6.2 Lattice Methods 53 2.7 Asian Options 54 2.7.1 Geometric Asian Options – Continuous Averaging 54 2.7.2 Arithmetic Asian Options – Continuous Averaging 61 2.7.3 Geometric Average Options – Discrete Fixings – Kemna and Vorst (1990) 62 2.7.4 Arithmetic Average Options – Discrete Fixings – Turnbull and Wakeman (1991) 66 2.8 Commodity Swaptions 70 2.9 Spread Options 73 2.9.1 Margrabe Exchange Options 74 2.9.2 The Kirk Approximation 75 2.9.3 Calendar Spread Options 77 2.9.4 Asian Spread Options 78 2.10 More Advanced Models 78 2.10.1 Mean Reverting Models 79 2.10.2 Multi-Factor Models 88 2.10.3 Convenience Yield Models 94 3 Precious Metals 99 3.1 Gold Forward and Gold Lease Rates 101 3.2 Volatility Surfaces for Precious Metals 103 3.2.1 Pips Spot Delta 104 3.2.2 Pips Forward Delta 104 3.2.3 Notation 105 3.2.4 Market Volatility Surfaces 105 3.2.5 At-the-Money 105 3.2.6 Strangles and Risk Reversals 107 3.2.7 Temporal Interpolation 111 3.3 Survey of the Precious Metals 111 3.3.1 Gold 112 3.3.2 Silver 117 3.3.3 Platinum 119 3.3.4 Palladium 121 3.3.5 Rhodium 124 4 Base Metals 127 4.1 Futures, Options and TAPO Contracts 130 4.1.1 Futures 130 4.1.2 Options 134 4.1.3 Traded Average Price Options 137 4.2 Commonly Traded Base Metals 139 4.2.1 Copper 140 4.2.2 Aluminium 142 4.2.3 Zinc 143 4.2.4 Nickel 145 4.2.5 Lead 146 4.2.6 Tin 148 5 Energy I – Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Coal 151 5.1 Crude Oil 154 5.1.1 WTI 158 5.1.2 Brent 163 5.1.3 Calibration of WTI Volatility Term Structure 171 5.1.4 Calibration of WTI Volatility Skew 174 5.1.5 Brent and Other Crude Markets 177 5.1.6 A Note on Correlation 180 5.2 Natural Gas 180 5.2.1 Deseasonalising Forward Curves 186 5.3 Coal 188 6 Energy II – Refined Products 195 6.1 The Refinery Basket 195 6.2 Gasoline 197 6.3 Heating Oil/Gas Oil 200 6.4 Petroleum Gases and Residual Fuel Oil 203 6.5 Seasonality and Volatility 205 6.6 Crack Spread Options 207 7 Power 213 7.1 Electricity Generation 214 7.2 Nonstorability and Decorrelation 217 7.2.1 Spot Markets 218 7.2.2 Futures and Forward Markets 219 7.2.3 Options Markets 220 7.3 Modelling Spikes in Electricity Markets 220 7.3.1 Reduced Form Models 223 7.3.2 Structural Models 227 7.4 Swing Options 231 7.5 Spark Spread Options 232 8 Agricultural Derivatives 233 8.1 Grains 234 8.1.1 Wheat 236 8.1.2 Corn 239 8.1.3 Rice 240 8.1.4 Oats 241 8.1.5 Barley 241 8.2 Oilseeds 242 8.2.1 Soybeans 242 8.2.2 Canola 244 8.3 Softs 244 8.3.1 Coffee 245 8.3.2 Cotton 247 8.3.3 Cocoa 248 8.3.4 Sugar 249 8.3.5 Orange Juice 250 8.3.6 Lumber 252 8.4 Pulp and Paper 252 8.5 Livestock 253 8.5.1 Feeder Cattle 253 8.5.2 Live Cattle 254 8.5.3 Lean Hogs 255 8.5.4 Pork Bellies 255 8.5.5 Milk and Dairy 256 9 Alternative Commodities 257 9.1 Carbon Emissions Trading 257 9.2 Weather Derivatives 261 9.2.1 Temperature Derivatives 261 9.2.2 Windspeed Derivatives 263 9.2.3 Precipitation Derivatives 263 9.3 Bandwidth and Telecommunication Trading 264 9.4 Plastics 265 9.5 Freight Derivatives 266 9.5.1 Shipping 266 9.5.2 Pricing and the Baltic Freight Market 268 9.5.3 Forward Freight Agreements and Options 269 Conversion Factors 273 Futures Contract Symbols 275 Glossary 279 References 295 Further Reading 303 Index 307

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Book SynopsisYour go-to-guide to delivering effective and transformative change that lasts All too often, change efforts fail to deliver on their promise. However it is possible to turn an organization around quickly to create a new future one where people think and behave differently and deliver extraordinary results together. Whether you are the chairman, a board director or an aspiring senior executive, The Little Black Book of Change provides a practical, concise and insightful guide to understanding your organization and inventing something extraordinary. It is not about run of the mill'' change programmes. It is about delivering extraordinary results something that is not at all predictable. It will be your insight into creating significant shifts in the way people think and behave which can be applied in any area you wish; from improving service levels to cost reductions, innovation or increasing market share. Demystifies organisational transformation in 7 praTrade Review"There's much wisdom in these short chapters." (PQ Magazine, June 2016) "...this book is a worthwhile read, good value for money and will be welcomed by change practitioners seeking to consolidate their understanding of the change process." (BCS, April 2016) "This book is a useful behavioural prompt for change leaders – hammering home the practices needed to enable change." (People Management, March 2016) "The authors' decades of experience resonate through the writing." (Project, March 2016) "Short, sharp and filled with loads of useful information. Just like a little black book should be." (HR Network Scotland, March 2016) "...provides a practical, concise and insightful guide to understanding your organisation and inventing something extraordinary...we love this book!" (The Marketing Academy, March 2016) Table of ContentsA note from the authors vii Introduction 1 Shift 1: Letting go of the past 15 Shift 2: Developing breakthrough ambition 27 Shift 3: Creating a bold new vision of the future 39 Shift 4: Engaging the players in the bold new future 57 Shift 5: Cut ting through the DNA 75 Shift 6: Keeping the organization future-focused 93 Shift 7: Gaining energy from setbacks 109 Summary 127 Final thoughts 137 About the authors 139 Acknowledgements 141 The extraordinary people club... 143

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Book SynopsisWhy your business isn''t succeeding and what you can do about it While business consultants are having you scour over profit and loss statements, the real truth is businesses don''t fail; people quit. The Way You Do Anything Is the Way You Do Everything offers a realistic, sarcastic, and fiercely honest look at how business owners fail to commit. Business success is all about mindset, and author Suzanne Evans helps you uncover your goals and blast away the obstacles that are standing in your way. She offers ways to make more money, more quickly and eliminate everything that doesn''t work. Offers specific daily practices to make more money even when every odd is stacked against you Delivers the road map to abandon a job you hate and follow your professional dreams Author Suzanne Evans went from a secretary to seven figure success, and her story has helped her to mentor thousands to change their lives, businesses, and finances forever Table of ContentsForeword by Larry Winget ix Acknowledgments xi Introduction 1 Chapter 1 The Way You Do Anything… 7 Chapter 2 Enthusiasm 19 Chapter 3 Commitment 29 Chapter 4 Having Guts 37 Chapter 5 Being Embarrassed 47 Chapter 6 Having Faith 55 Chapter 7 Being Practical 65 Chapter 8 Not Being Practical 75 Chapter 9 Money 83 Chapter 10 Pain 95 Chapter 11 Time 109 Chapter 12 Competition 119 Chapter 13 Mastery 131 Chapter 14 Plan 143 Chapter 15 Love 153 Index 163

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Book SynopsisAbout our authors Stephen P. Robbins received his PhD from the University of Arizona. He previously worked for the Shell Oil Company and Reynolds Metals Company and has taught at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, Concordia University in Montreal, the University of Baltimore, Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville, and San Diego State University. He is currently professor emeritus in management at San Diego State. A full bio is available at stephenprobbins.com. Dr. Robbins's research interests have focused on conflict, power, and politics in organizations, behavioral decision making, and the development of effective interpersonal skills. His articles on these and other topics have appeared in such journals as Business Horizons, the California Management Review, Business and Economic Perspectives, International Management, Management Review, Canadian Personnel and Industrial Relations, and The Journal of Management Education. Dr. Robbins is the world's best-selling textbook author in the areas of management and organizational behavior. His books have sold more than 12 million copies and have been translated into 20 languages. His books are currently used at more than 1,500 US colleges and universities, as well as hundreds of schools throughout Canada, Latin America, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Europe and the Arab World. Dr. Robbins also participates in masters' track competition. Since turning 50 in 1993, he's won 23 national sprint championships and 14 world sprint titles. He was inducted into the US Masters Track & Field Hall of Fame in 2005. Mary Coulter received her PhD from the University of Arkansas. She held different jobs including high school teacher, legal assistant, and city government program planner before completing her graduate work. She has taught at Drury University, the University of Arkansas, Trinity University, and Missouri State University. She is currently professor emeritus of management at Missouri State University. In addition to Management, Dr. Coulter has published other books with Pearson including Fundamentals of Management (with Stephen P. Robbins), Strategic Management in Action, and Entrepreneurship in Action. When she's not busy writing, Dr. Coulter enjoys puttering around in her flower gardens, trying new recipes, reading all different types of books, and enjoying many different activities with husband Ron, daughter Sarah and her husband, James, and son-in-law Matt, and most especially with her 2 grandkids, Brooklynn and Blake, who are the delights of her life! Lori K. Long received her PhD from the Kent State University. As the Burton D. Morgan Endowed Chair in Entrepreneurship at Baldwin Wallace University, Dr. Long works across her campus to promote entrepreneurial thinking in all disciplines and teaches courses in management and entrepreneurship. Long's research interests include developing entrepreneurs, online learning, organizational culture and effective work/life management strategies. Her work has been published in Higher Education Skills and Work-based Learning, The Journal of Human Resources Education, The Journal of Workplace Learning, The International Journal of E-learning, Equal Opportunities International and The Journal of Management Development, as well as several other journals, books and conference proceedings. Dr. Long also consults with businesses on people management, developing organizational culture, and building innovation eco-systems. When not working or writing, Dr. Long can be found enjoying the outdoors and traveling with her husband David.

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