Economic forecasting Books

Book SynopsisThe conventional wisdom on how technology will change the future is wrong. Mark Mills lays out a radically different and optimistic vision for what’s really coming.The mainstream forecasts fall into three camps. One considers today as the “new normal,” where ordering a ride or food on a smartphone or trading in bitcoins is as good as it’s going to get. Another foresees a dystopian era of widespread, digitally driven job- and business-destruction. A third believes that the only technological revolution that matters will be found with renewable energy and electric cars. But according to Mills, a convergence of technologies will instead drive an economic boom over the coming decade, one that historians will characterize as the “Roaring 2020s.” It will come not from any single big invention, but from the confluence of radical advances in three primary technology domains: microprocessors, materials, and machines. Microprocessors are increasingly embedded in everything. Materials, from which everything is built, are emerging with novel, almost magical capabilities. And machines, which make and move all manner of stuff, are undergoing a complementary transformation. Accelerating and enabling all of this is the Cloud, history’s biggest infrastructure, which is itself based on the building blocks of next-generation microprocessors and artificial intelligence.We’ve seen this pattern before. The technological revolution that drove the great economic expansion of the twentieth century can be traced to a similar confluence, one that was first visible in the 1920s: a new information infrastructure (telephony), new machines (cars and power plants), and new materials (plastics and pharmaceuticals). Single inventions don’t drive great, long-cycle booms. It always takes convergent revolutions in technology’s three core spheres—information, materials, and machines. Over history, that’s only happened a few times. We have wrung much magic from the technologies that fueled the last long boom. But the great convergence now underway will ignite the 2020s. And this time, unlike any previous historical epoch, we have the Cloud amplifying everything. The next long boom starts now.Trade Review“Entertaining and educating while linking history, technology and unusual savvy, Mark Mills’s The Cloud Revolution shows an unprecedented upcoming convergence of technological forces from whose acquaintance you can’t help but be a much better investor.” —Ken Fisher, founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, multi-national columnist, and bestselling author “Makes the exciting—and convincing—case that we’re on the cusp of a fantastic new era of technological breakthroughs that will vastly enrich our lives. What a timely—and much needed—antidote to the debilitating pessimism that now reigns.” —Steve Forbes, chairman and editor-in-chief of Forbes Media “A compelling case for optimism: An economic boom in the immediate future driven by the convergence of three evolving technologies aided by the Cloud. Tons of verifiable data support the case… An antidote to the doomsday scenarios that seem to tint everything today.” —Julio M. Ottino, dean of the Robert R. McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Northwestern University “This is a book about how the future will work. The ‘20s’ will roar because of the new economy made possible by the Cloud. ‘Data is the new oil’ not because it replaces oil but because of the wide range of new industries and innovation it will spawn. This is a book that one will learn much from—and be amazed by.” —Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit, and Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Prize and The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations“The Cloud Revolution is the 2020s indispensable book for investors, boards, entrepreneurs and executives. Mark Mills explains why digital acceleration is occurring but better yet, how the cloud juggernaut will alter the value of the physical economy, from materials to manufacturing to medicine. Trillions of new wealth will be created at the intersection of digital and physical.” — Rich Karlgaard, Publisher, Forbes “In The Cloud Revolution, Mark Mills argues that not only is Moore’s law alive and well but a number of technologies are now maturing into powerhouses of their own. And the confluence of information and these new technologies will lead to another roaring era, akin to the 1920s, when radio, automobiles, airplanes, and electrification remade the world… Mills, who is a physicist and energy expert, broadens our too-often information-centric technological horizon with a host of new innovations in materials and machines.”—Bret Swanson, Nonresident Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute"Bringing a helpful historical perspective to the story of technological evolution, Mills compares present-day inventions with the miracles of yesteryear."—Grant’s Interest Rate Observer "One of the most important economic books of 2021 . . . . This is a great book for anyone trying to understand how the stock market can rocket thousands of points to all-time highs while the world is suffering and struggling through a global pandemic."—The Northside Sun "Mills convincingly argues with verve, vitality, and – most importantly – evidence, that humanity is about to take a great step forward in the coming decade. "—RealClearScience"The Cloud Revolution is nothing short of spectacular. And so is our future. As Mills opines near the end of an extraordinarily engrossing book, we’re at the beginning of 'the most exciting and promising time in history.' Yes we are. Mark Mills artfully shows us why we are."—RealClearMarkets"By leveraging an encyclopedic approach to the history of technology, Mills presents a boldly optimistic vision of a future that ushers in a new golden age for all humanity, one that will be made possible by the world's first, civilization-wide intelligent information infrastructure: the cloud."—James P. Woods Jr., Enterpreise.nxt

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Book SynopsisWhether it’s an unforeseen financial crash, a shock election result or a washout summer that threatens to ruin a holiday in the sun, forecasts are part and parcel of our everyday lives. We rely wholeheartedly on them, and become outraged when things don’t go exactly to plan. But should we really put so much trust in predictions? Perhaps gut instincts can trump years of methodically compiled expert knowledge? And when exactly is a forecast not a forecast? Forewarned will answer all of these intriguing questions, and many more. Packed with fun anecdotes and startling facts, Forewarned is a myth-busting guide to prediction, based on the very latest scientific research. It lays out the many ways forecasting can help us make better decisions in an unpredictable modern world, and reveals when forecasts can be a reliable guide to the uncertainties of the future – and when they are best ignored.

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Book SynopsisThis is a guidebook about short term Operational Forecasting – the sort that is done to determine how much product you need to source or how many people you need to draft in to meet customer demand. It is organized under 5 headings: 1. The purpose of operational forecasting 2. Understanding demand 3. Forecasting methods 4. Understanding forecast performance 5. Managing forecast performance. The first two sections and part of section three are essential reading for anyone involved in or responsible for operational forecasting. The rest of the book is most helpful for practitioners. The aim is to produce something that provides a useful introduction to operational forecasting for both practitioners and their bosses by filling in the gap that lies between a naïve common sense understanding of short term forecasting and the complex technicalities of mathematical forecasting techniques. The authors background as a self-taught business orientated forecasting nerd with limited mathematical expertise qualifies who tell it the way it is makes him well qualified to fill this gap. The book has been designed to be simple but not simplistic, using short and to the point learning points supported by clear graphics. It is technically sound but also highly practical. The hope is that it will help create a common language to help people talk intelligently about forecasting and help stop people doing dumb stuff – which is where most of the potential for improvement lies. It will also help people design good forecast processes and informed software purchasing decisions. In doing so it will help people realize that forecasting is important and that investing in people as well as software will generate enormous benefits for many businesses.

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Book SynopsisIncluding contributions spanning a variety of theoretical and applied topics in econometrics, this volume of Advances in Econometrics is published in honour of Cheng Hsiao. In the first few chapters of this book, new theoretical panel and time series results are presented, exploring JIVE estimators, HAC, HAR and various sandwich estimators, as well as asymptotic distributions for using information criteria to distinguish between the unit root model and explosive models. Other chapters address topics such as structural breaks or growth empirics; auction models; and semiparametric methods testing for common vs. individual trends. Three chapters provide novel empirical approaches to applied problems, such as estimating the impact of survey mode on responses, or investigating how cross-sectional and spatial dependence of mortgages varies by default rates and geography. In the final chapters, Cheng Hsiao offers a forward-focused discussion of the role of big data in economics. For any researcher of econometrics, this is an unmissable volume of the most current and engaging research in the field.Table of ContentsIntroduction; Dek Terrell, Tong Li and M. Hashem Pesaran Chapter 1. Correction for the Asymptotical Bias of the Arellano-Bond type GMM Estimation of Dynamic Panel Models; Yonghui Zhang and Qiankun Zhou Chapter 2. Testing Convergence using HAR Inference; Peter Phillips, Jianning Kong and Donggyu Sul Chapter 3. Bayesian Estimation of Linear Sum Assignment Problems; Yubo Tao and Jun Yu Chapter 4. A VAR Approach to Forecasting Multivariate Long Memory Processes Subject to Structural Breaks; Cindy S.H. Wang and Shui Ki Wan Chapter 5. Identifying Global and National Output and Fiscal Policy Shocks Using a GVAR; Alexander Chudik, M. Hashem Pesaran and Kamiar Mohaddes Chapter 6. The Determinents of Health Care Expenditure and Trends: A Semiparametric Panal Data Analysis of OECD Countries; Ming Kong, Jiti Gao and Xueyan Zhao Chapter 7. Growth empirics: a Bayesian semiparametric model with random coefficients for a panel of OECD Countries; Badi H. Baltagi, Georges Bresson and Jean-Michel Etienne Chapter 8. Robust Estimation and Inference for Importance Sampling Estimators with Infinite Variance; Joshua Chan, Chenghan Hou and Thomas Tao Yang Chapter 9. Econometrics of Scoring Auctions; Jean-Jacques Laffont, Isabelle Perrigne, Michel Simioni, and Quang Vuong Chapter 10. Bayesian Estimation of Linear Sum Assignment Problems; Yu-Wei Hsieh and Matthew Shum Chapter 11. The Mode is the Message: Using Predata as Exclusion Restrictions to Evaluate Survey Design; Heng Chen, Geoffrey Dunbar, and Q. Rallye Shen Chapter 12. Estimating Peer Effects on Career Choice: A Spatial Multinomial Logit Approach; Bolun Li, Robin Sickles and Jenny Williams Chapter 13. Mortgage Portfolio Diversification in the Presence of Cross-Sectional and Spatial Dependence; Timothy Dombrowski, R. Kelley Pace and Rajesh Narayanan Chapter 14. An Econometrician's Perspective on Big Data; Cheng Hsiao Hsiao Chapter 15. Comments on 'An Econometrician's Perspective on Big Data'; Thomas Fomby Chapter 16. Comments on 'An Econometrician's Perspective on Big Data' by Cheng Hsiao; Georges Bresson

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Book SynopsisDiscussing the Spanish Flu, HIV/AIDs, SARS and Ebola against the background of Covid-19, Pandemic Economics demonstrates how scientists consistently warned the world about pandemics, and how, despite this, the possibility of global lockdown caused unprecedented economic policies and ruin. The book prepares for the next pandemic, that unquestionably will arrive, the impact of which is predicted to potentially exceed that of the current Covid-19 wreckage. Highlighting how economic theory can anticipate a pandemic's impact despite the uncertainty and unreliability of traditional statistics, Peter van Bergeijk assesses the lack of preparation by international economic institutions and the ability for humanity to deeply hurt the economy by its response to infectious disease. Chapters offer an overview and critical analysis of global non-pharmaceutical interventions and economic policies in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Looking forward, the book investigates the economic impact, policy (in)effectiveness and resilience in different social contexts, illustrating a pandemic trilemma of health, freedom and the economy. It suggests how to prepare for the next pandemic at the individual level, in city planning, nationally, internationally and globally, with a focus on analysing the impact of pandemics from a global perspective. Pandemic Economics will be a stimulating read for (health) economics and development studies scholars as it provides a historic overview of the uneven impact of pandemics, with up to date studies of the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic. The forward-looking suggestions for economic policies and preparations for future pandemics will also make this an important read for economic and health policy makers.Trade Review‘Although Pandemic Economics originates from and is projected for the economic profession, it fits into a broader specter of emerging literature on the Covid-19 pandemic and public policy. It also strongly evokes the lessons from the scholarship on “behavioral economics.” Therefore, if, as van Beregijk insists, the next pandemic “is a certainty – only its timing is uncertain,” then a broad range of social scientists will benefit from reading this monograph.’ -- Ian Ezerin Ian, International Social Science Review‘Highly recommended. All readers.’ -- E P Hoffman, CHOICE'If you want to understand how the current Covid-19 pandemic will reshape economies this is the book for you. The book takes us on a rollercoaster journey through past pandemics, the current pandemic and looks to the future. Hold on to your hat. A fascinating insight into where the world has been and is heading.' -- Andy Sumner, King's College London, UK'Brilliantly narrated, Pandemic Economics provides the evidence that policymakers should have been better prepared for Covid-19 and the insights on how to strike a better balance between the protection of lives and livelihoods. As it may well happen again, this is a must read now and time again.' -- Rob Vos, International Food Policy Research Institute, US and the International Institute of Social Studies, the Netherlands'An entertaining and timely story of past, present, and future problems of Pandemic Economics. The art of economics with lacking data is to select the right model and tools given the circumstances, not develop new ones. Remember Monty Python: nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition! We are aware, but not prepared.' -- Charles van Marrewijk, Utrecht University, the Netherlands

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Book SynopsisIn this 37th volume of Research in Economic History, editors Christopher Hanes and Susan Wolcott assemble a group of lead experts to showcase new historical data, analyses of historical questions, and an investigation of historians’ networks. The volume covers a wide range of ideas, beginning with an examination of the sharp decline in school attendance among white children in the Southern US after the Civil War, followed by a study on the fiscal administration of an experimental parliamentary subsidy on English knight’s fees and income from 1431. A third paper assembles new county-level, household-level, and individual-level data, including new complete-count IPUMS microdata databases of the 1830-1880 censuses, to evaluate different theories for the nineteenth-century American fertility decline. The volume then pivots to deal with the development of banking in the Crown of Aragon from the end of the 13th century through the establishment of money changers. Finally, the volume summarizes in detail the content of Pieter Stadnitski’s revolutionary 1787 report An Explanatory Message Concerning the Funds, analyzing its arguments with the context of Dutch archival materials including deeds, newspaper reports, and letters, as well as congressional records from American sources. This new volume presents fascinating new areas of enquiry and analysis for all scholars in the field of economic history, including economists, historians and demographers.Table of ContentsChapter 1. When the Race between Education and Technology Goes Backwards: The Postbellum Decline of White School Attendance in the Southern US; Hoyt Bleakley and Sok Chul Hong Chapter 2. The Parliamentary Subsidy on Knights' Fees and Incomes of 1431: A Study on the Fiscal Administration of an Abortive English Tax Experiment; Alex Brayson Chapter 3. Early Fertility Decline in the United States: Tests of Alternative Hypotheses using New Complete-Count Census Microdata and Enhanced County-Level Data; J. David Hacker, Michael R. Haines, and Matthew Jaremski Chapter 4. Private banking and financial networks in the Crown of Aragon during the 14th century; Albert Reixach Sala Chapter 5. Pieter Stadnitski Sharpens the Axe: A Revolutionary Research Report on American Sovereign Finance, 1787; Peter Theodore Veru

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Book SynopsisBehavioural economists have developed alternatives to Expected Utility Theory as descriptive and normative models of risk preferences. One popular view is that these alternative descriptive models are generally better descriptively, but that they tend to be inferior normative models for guiding risky decisions. Models of Risk Preferences collects studies that critically review these two claims from the perspective of experimental economics. The Research in Experimental Economics series focuses on laboratory experimental economics, but includes theoretical, empirical, or field economic research to encompass the broader experimental economics community.Table of ContentsIntroduction; Glenn W. Harrison and Don Ross Chapter 1. Behavioral Welfare Economics and the Quantitative Intentional Stance; Glenn W. Harrison and Don Ross Chapter 2. Unusual Estimates of Probability Weighting Functions; Nathaniel T. Wilcox Chapter 3. Cumulative Prospect Theory in the Laboratory: A Reconsideration; Glenn W. Harrison and J. Todd Swarthout Chapter 4. Temporal Stability of Cumulative Prospect Theory; Morten I. Lau, Hong Il Yoo, and Hongming Zhao Chapter 5. The Welfare Consequences of Individual-Level Risk Preference Estimation; Brian Albert Monroe

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Book SynopsisThe forecasting of financial markets has engaged the attention of market professionals and academic economists and statisticians for many years, and has also attracted the interest of numerous 'amateur' investors. This book brings together key papers in this wide field. After considering some of the earliest attempts at forecasting, it provides an insight into the theoretical underpinnings of the subject, investigates the random walk model, and examines various financial markets, volatility and density forecasting, the forecasting of extreme events, trading rules, technical analysis and high frequency data.Table of ContentsContents: Volume I: Acknowledgements Introduction Terence C. Mills PART I EARLY ATTEMPTS 1. Alfred Cowles (1944), ‘Stock Market Forecasting’ 2. Holbrook Working (1934), ‘A Random-Difference Series for Use in the Analysis of Time Series’ 3. M.G. Kendall (1953), ‘The Analysis of Economic Time Series – Part 1: Prices’ 4. M.F.M. Osborne (1962), ‘Periodic Structure in the Brownian Motion of Stock Prices’ 5. Sidney S. Alexander (1964), ‘Price Movements in Speculative Markets: Trends or Random Walks, Number 2’ PART II THEORETICAL UNDERPINNINGS 6. Benoit Mandelbrot (1966), ‘Forecasts of Future Prices, Unbiased Markets, and "Martingale" Models’ 7. Paul A. Samuelson (1973), ‘Proof That Properly Discounted Present Values of Assets Vibrate Randomly’ 8. Stephen F. LeRoy (1989), ‘Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales’ PART III TESTING THE RANDOM WALK MODEL 9. Victor Niederhoffer and M.F.M. Osborne (1966), ‘Market Making and Reversal on the Stock Exchange’ 10. Michael D. Godfrey, Clive W.J. Granger and Oskar Morgenstern (1964), ‘The Random-Walk Hypothesis of Stock Market Behavior’ 11. Stephen J. Taylor (1980), ‘Conjectured Models for Trends in Financial Prices, Tests and Forecasts’ 12. Matthew Richardson and James H. Stock (1989), ‘Drawing Inferences from Statistics Based on Multiyear Asset Returns’ PART IV STOCK MARKETS 13. Eugene F. Fama (1972), ‘Components of Investment Performance’ 14. Robert C. Merton (1981), ‘On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts’ 15. Roy D. Henriksson and Robert C. Merton (1981), ‘On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills’ 16. Cheng-few Lee and Shafiqur Rahman (1990), ‘Market Timing, Selectivity, and Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Investigation’ 17. William Breen, Lawrence R. Glosten and Ravi Jagannathan (1989), ‘Economic Significance of Predictable Variations in Stock Index Returns’ 18. Wayne E. Ferson and Robert A. Korajczyk (1995), ‘Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns?’ 19. Shmuel Kandel and Robert F. Stambaugh (1996), ‘On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective’ 20. M. Hashem Pesaran and Allan Timmermann (1995), ‘Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance’ 21. M. Hashem Pesaran and Allan Timmermann (2000), ‘A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns’ PART V FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS 22. Alan C. Stockman (1987), ‘Economic Theory and Exchange Rate Forecasts’ 23. Paul Boothe and Debra Glassman (1987), ‘Comparing Exchange Rate Forecasting Models: Accuracy versus Profitability’ 24. Charles Goodhart (1988), ‘The Foreign Exchange Market: A Random Walk with a Dragging Anchor’ 25. Ronald MacDonald and Mark P. Taylor (1993), ‘The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Rational Expectations, Long-Run Equilibrium, and Forecasting’ 26. Nelson C. Mark (1995), ‘Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability’ Name Index Volume II: Acknowledgements An introduction by the editor to both volumes appears in Volume I PART I OTHER FINANCIAL MARKETS 1. Donald B. Keim and Robert F. Stambaugh (1986), ‘Predicting Returns in the Stock and Bond Markets’ 2. Andrew W. Lo and A. Craig MacKinlay (1997), ‘Maximizing Predictability in the Stock and Bond Markets’ 3. Hendrik Bessembinder and Kalok Chan (1992), ‘Time-varying Risk Premia and Forecastable Returns in Futures Markets’ 4. Alvaro Escribano and Clive W.J. Granger (1998), ‘Investigating the Relationship between Gold and Silver Prices’ PART II VOLATILITY FORECASTING 5. Stephen J. Taylor (1987), ‘Forecasting the Volatility of Currency Exchange Rates’ 6. Philippe Jorion (1995), ‘Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market’ 7. Torben G. Andersen and Tim Bollerslev (1998), ‘Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models do Provide Accurate Forecasts’ 8. James W. Taylor (1999), ‘Evaluating Volatility and Interval Forecasts’ PART III LONG MEMORY, DENSITY FORECASTS AND FORECASTING EXTREME EVENTS 9. Benoit Mandelbrot (1963), ‘New Methods in Statistical Economics’ 10. Andrew W. Lo (1997), ‘Fat Tails, Long Memory, and the Stock Market Since the 1960’s’ 11. Dennis W. Jansen and Casper G. de Vries (1991), ‘On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective’ 12. Francis X. Diebold, Jinyong Hahn and Anthony S. Tay (1999), ‘Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation and Calibration in Financial Risk Management: High-Frequency Returns on Foreign Exchange’ PART IV FORECASTING USING NONLINEAR MODELS 13. Francis X. Diebold and James A. Nason (1990), ‘Nonparametric Exchange Rate Prediction?’ 14. Charles Engel (1994), ‘Can the Markov Switching Model Forecast Exchange Rates?’ 15. Blake LeBaron (1994), ‘Chaos and Nonlinear Forecastability in Economics and Finance’ 16. Stephen J. Brown, William N. Goetzmann and Alok Kumar (1998), ‘The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton’s Track Record Reconsidered’ 17. Min Qi and G.S. Maddala (1999), ‘Economic Factors and the Stock Market: A New Perspective’ 18. Clive W.J. Granger and Chor-Yiu Sin (2000), ‘Modelling the Absolute Returns of Different Stock Indices: Exploring the Forecastability of an Alternative Measure of Risk’ PART V TRADING RULES AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 19. Salih N. Neftci (1991), ‘Naïve Trading Rules in Financial Markets and Wiener-Kolmogorov Prediction Theory: A Study of "Technical Analysis"’ 20. William Brock, Josef Lakonishok and Blake LeBaron (1992), ‘Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns’ 21. Mark P. Taylor and Helen Allen (1992), ‘The Use of Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market’ 22. Richard M. Levich and Lee R. Thomas, III (1993), ‘The Significance of Technical Trading-Rule Profits in the Foreign Exchange Market: A Bootstrap Approach’ 23. Ramazan Gençay (1998), ‘The Predictability of Security Returns with Simple Technical Trading Rules’ 24. Andrew W. Lo, Harry Mamaysky and Jiang Wang (2000), ‘Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation’ PART VI HIGH FREQUENCY FORECASTING 25. C.A.E. Goodhart and M. Giugale (1993), ‘From Hour to Hour in the Foreign Exchange Market’ 26. Timothy Falcon Crack and Olivier Ledoit (1996), ‘Robust Structure Without Predictability: The "Compass Rose" Pattern of the Stock Market’ 27. Robert F. Engle and Jeffrey R. Russell (1997), ‘Forecasting the Frequency of Changes in Quoted Foreign Exchange Prices with the Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model’ Name Index

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Book SynopsisModern evolutionary economics is now nearly two decades old and in this excellent book, a distinguished group of evolutionary economists identify the most important developments and discuss the direction of future research.By moving away from traditional concerns with the operation of selection mechanisms towards a preoccupation with the manner in which the novelty and variety provide fuel for such mechanisms, the authors identify a key development in the field. Evolutionary economists have been drawn into the modern complexity science literature which attempts to provide an understanding of how and why 'complex adaptive systems' engage in processes of self-organization. The goal is to provide an integrated analysis of both selection and self-organization that is uniquely economic in orientation. After a brief overview of the many key achievements and continuing challenges, the first part of the book deals with theoretical perspectives, discussing institutional change, social constructions, complexity, selection and self-selection and the usefulness of theory. Part two deals with empirical perspectives and includes discussion of replicator dynamics, the measurement of heterogeneity and complexity, and modelling organizations as complex adaptive systems. This unique book will appeal to evolutionary and industrial economists and policymakers involved with issues of innovation and management scientists.Trade Review'This compilation by leading protagonists is a must for a greater understanding of the world we are living in and wanting to see change for the better.' -- Gerry Sweeney, PrometheusTable of ContentsContents: Preface Part I: Theoretical Perspectives Part II: Empirical Perspectives Index

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Book SynopsisInnovation, science and technology and the wealth gained from them make continuous media copy and yet there is a manifest imbalance in society, a paradox of more prosperity but growing exclusion. This book marks the 25th anniversary of the Six Countries Programme, which pioneered the study of innovation from a policy viewpoint but with a radical ethos. This ethos is continued by the contributors to this book who challenge much of the current thinking on innovation and technology and attempt to provide markers for the way ahead. They propose a systemic approach to the innovation process as the route to a more sustainable future and provide the alternative of a learning society to a knowledge society which seems to be inexorably driven by Schumpetarian dynamics.Trade Review'This book is an important contribution to the debate on innovation policy. . . It gives a new insight into the whole issue of innovation process and its variations among countries. . . This is a very useful and timely book on innovation process. It is rich with experiences and is specially useful for researchers in the area of policy studies and for policymakers.' -- N. Mrinalini, Journal of Scientific and Industrial Resources'. . . Sweeney's contribution to this volume is very large, both in putting it all together and by delivering also a personal contribution which is both stimulating and exciting.' -- Keith Cowling, PrometheusTable of ContentsContents: Preface 1. Introduction: Innovation and Innovation Policy: the Need for Re-examination 2. Cultural Influences on Innovation Climates in the Industrialised World 3. The Economic Role of Technology in a Competence Bloc based Industrial Policy Analysis 4. Innovation Policy as a Substitute for Failing Economic Policies 5. Innovation: From Individual Decisions to the Emergence of Policy and Global Fate – a Sociological Perspective 6. Internationalisation of Innovation, Interdependence and Innovation Policy for Sustainable Development 7. The Knowledge Based Economy: Better Living or Bigger Profits? 8. Learning-by-Comparing: Reflections on the Use and Abuse of International Benchmarking 9. Territory and Innovation: The Role of the Milieu 9. Social Capital: The Core Factor in Economic Resurgence 10. Innovation in the Next Decade: The Need for Integrated Policies Index

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Book SynopsisThis book offers a wide-ranging overview of the state of labour market forecasting in selected OECD countries. Besides presenting forecasting models, the contributions provide an introduction to past experiences of forecasting, highlight the requirements for building appropriate data sets and present the most up-to-date forecasts available. In most cases the forecasts project mismatches in the labour market as they are likely to occur in the coming years with respect to occupational groups, qualifications and employment in specific sectors. The authors demonstrate how these insights might be used to help reduce employment risks both for the individual worker and the national labour market as a whole. The country examples also show how information on labour market trends is disseminated and used by various actors, such as policymakers, firms and individuals. In a world of rapid structural change, the results of the research presented in this book could help cushion the impact of potential shocks from future mismatches and skill shortages in the job market. Policymakers at the supranational, national and regional level, and academics in the fields of labour market theory and policy can all draw valuable information from this insightful study.Table of ContentsContents: Preface 1. Why Forecast and For Whom? Some Introductory Remarks Michael Neugart and Klaus Schömann 2. Occupations and Skills in the United States: Projection Methods and Results through 2008 Burt S. Barnow 3. Forecasting Future Skill Needs in Canada Douglas A. Smith 4. Labour Market Forecasting in Japan: Methodology, Main Results and Implications Fujikazu Suzuki 5. Projections and Institutions: The State of Play in Britain Robert M. Lindley 6. A Review of Occupational Employment Forecasting for Ireland Jerry Sexton 7. Beyond Manpower Planning: A Labour Market Model for the Netherlands and its Forecasts to 2006 Frank Cörvers, Andries de Grip and Hans Heijke 8. French Occupational Outlooks by 2010: A Quantitative Approach Based on the FLIP-FAP Model Agnes Topiol 9. Projections of Qualifications and Occupations in Austria: Short-term Approaches, Macro Perspective and Emphasis on the Supply Side Lorenz Lassnigg 10. Projecting Labour Market Developments in Spain through 2010: From Massive Unemployment to Skill Gaps and Labour Shortages? Ferran Mañé and Josep Oliver-Alonso Index

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Book SynopsisModern evolutionary economics is now nearly two decades old and in this excellent book, a distinguished group of evolutionary economists identify the most important developments and discuss the direction of future research.By moving away from traditional concerns with the operation of selection mechanisms towards a preoccupation with the manner in which the novelty and variety provide fuel for such mechanisms, the authors identify a key development in the field. Evolutionary economists have been drawn into the modern complexity science literature which attempts to provide an understanding of how and why 'complex adaptive systems' engage in processes of self-organization. The goal is to provide an integrated analysis of both selection and self-organization that is uniquely economic in orientation. After a brief overview of the many key achievements and continuing challenges, the first part of the book deals with theoretical perspectives, discussing institutional change, social constructions, complexity, selection and self-selection and the usefulness of theory. Part two deals with empirical perspectives and includes discussion of replicator dynamics, the measurement of heterogeneity and complexity, and modelling organizations as complex adaptive systems. This unique book will appeal to evolutionary and industrial economists and policymakers involved with issues of innovation and management scientists.Trade Review'This compilation by leading protagonists is a must for a greater understanding of the world we are living in and wanting to see change for the better.' -- Gerry Sweeney, PrometheusTable of ContentsContents: Preface Part I: Theoretical Perspectives Part II: Empirical Perspectives Index

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Book SynopsisThis important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently - at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly - depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey.At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.Trade Review'In this valuable volume, Nobel Prize-winner Klein gathers together a group of authors who focus on forecasting models for a number of economies. The variety of the models and the structural differences among them are especially interesting. . . Readers interested in forecasting methodologies will find much of value in this volume. Highly recommended.' -- I. Walter, ChoiceTable of ContentsContents: Preface 1. Background to National Economic Forecasts and the High-frequency Model of the USA Lawrence R. Klein 2. Forecasting the Sustainability of China’s Economic Performance: Early Twenty-first Century and Beyond Wendy Mak 3. The Economic Growth Story in India: Past, Present and Prospects for the Future Sudip Ranjan Basu 4. High-frequency Forecasting Model for the Russian Economy Vladimir Eskin and Mikhail Gusev 5. Short-term Forecasting of Key Indicators of the German Economy Andrei Roudoi 6. Mexico: Current Quarter Forecasts Alfredo Coutiño 7. A High-frequency Forecasting Model and its Application to the Japanese Economy Yoshihisa Inada 8. The Making of National Economic Forecasts: South Korea You Chan ‘Kevin’ Chung 9. Current Quarter Model for Turkey Süleyman Özmucur 10. Estimation of the US Treasury Yield Curve at Daily and Intra-Daily Frequency Lawrence R. Klein and Süleyman Özmucur 11. Using Data and Models at Mixed Frequencies in Computation and Forecasting Fyodor I. Kushnirsky 12. Using Sentiment Surveys to Predict GDP Growth and Stock Returns Giselle Guzmán Appendix: Preliminary Analysis of Brazil Andrei Roudoi Index

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Book SynopsisThe objective of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making. (An accurate, robust forecast is critical to effective decision making). The focus of the research annual is applications - and practitioner-oriented. The topics will normally include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accuracy, and sales response models. It is the direction of the editorial board to stimulate the interest of the practitioners of forecasting to methods and techniques that are relevant.Table of ContentsCompetitive set forecasting in the hotel industry with an application to hotel revenue management. Predicting high-tech stock returns with financial performance measures: Evidence from Taiwan. Forecasting informed trading at merger announcements: The use of liquidity trading. Using data envelopment analysis (DEA) to forecast bank performance. Forecasting demand using partially accumulated data. Forecasting new adoptions: A comparative evaluation of three techniques of parameter estimation. The use of a flexible diffusion model for forecasting national-level mobile telephone and internet diffusion. Forecasting household response in database marketing: A latent trait approach. A new basis for measuring and evaluating forecasting models. Forecasting using internal markets, Delphi, and other approaches: The knowledge distribution grid. The effect of correlation between demands on hierarchical forecasting. Econometric count data forecasting and data mining (cluster analysis) applied to stochastic demand in truckload routing. Two-attribute warranty policies under consumer preferences of usage and claims execution. A dual transportation problem analysis for facility expansion/contraction decisions: A tutorial. Make-to-order product demand forecasting: Exponential smoothing models with neural network correction. List of Contributors. EDITORIAL BOARD. Advances in business and management forecasting. Advances in business and management forecasting volume 6. Copyright page.

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Book SynopsisThis authoritative and wide-ranging collection presents over fifty of the most important articles on forecasting - a technique that lies at the heart of economic policy and decision-making.This comprehensive two volume set presents the major papers in macroeconomic forecasting and policy making; time series forecasting; the econometrics of forecasting; forecast evaluation; forecasting with leading indicators; forecasting in finance and economic forecasting using surveys.Table of ContentsContents: VOLUME I: Acknowledgements • Introduction Terence Mills Part I: Early Attempts 1. Warren M. Persons (1924), ‘Some Fundamental Concepts of Statistics’ 2. Paul A. Samuelson (1987), ‘Paradise Lost and Refound: The Harvard ABC Barometers’ 3. Arthur W. Marget (1929), ‘Morgenstern on the Methodology of Economic Forecasting’ Part II: Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policymaking 4. R.L. Marris (1954), ‘The Position of Economics and Economists in the Government Machine: A Comparative Critique of the United Kingdom and the Netherlands’ 5. Daniel B. Suits (1962), ‘Forecasting and Analysis with an Econometric Model’ 6. Alec Cairncross (1969), ‘Economic Forecasting’ 7. Stephen K. McNees (1982), ‘The Role of Macroeconometric Models in Forecasting and Policy Analysis in the United States’ 8. Sir Terence Burns (1986), ‘The Interpretation and Use of Economic Predictions’ 9. Kenneth F. Wallis (1991), ‘Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Survey’ Part III: Time Series Forecasting 10. P.J. Coen, E.D. Gomme and M.G. Kendall (1969), ‘Lagged Relationships in Economic Forecasting (with discussion)’ 11. Jeremy Bray (1971), ‘Dynamic Equations for Economic Forecasting with the G.D.P. - Unemployment Relation and the Growth of G.D.P. in the United Kingdom as an Example’ 12. George E.P. Box and Paul Newbold (1971), ‘Some Comments on a Paper of Coen, Gomme and Kendall’ 13. P. Newbold and C.W.J. Granger (1974), ‘Experience with Forecasting Univariate Time Series and the Combination of Forecasts’ 14. Richard Meese and John Geweke (1984), ‘A Comparison of Autoregressive Univariate Forecasting Procedures for Macroeconomic Time Series’ 15. A.C. Harvey and P.H.J. Todd (1983), ‘Forecasting Economic Time Series With Structural and Box-Jenkins Methods: A Case Study’ 16. Robert B. Litterman (1986), ‘Forecasting With Bayesian Vector Autoregressions – Five Years of Experience’ 17. K. Rao Kadiyala and Sune Karlsson (1993), ‘Forecasting with Generalized Bayesian Vector Autoregressions’ 18. Jin-Lung Lin and C.W.J. Granger (1994), ‘Forecasting from Non-linear Models in Practice’ 19. Chris Chatfield (1997), ‘Forecasting in the 1990s’ Part IV: The Econometrics of Forecasting 20. Richard T. Baillie and Tim Bollerslev (1992), ‘Prediction in Dynamic Models with Time-Dependent Conditional Variances’ 21. Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry (1993), ‘On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors’ 22. Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry (1995), ‘Forecasting in Cointegrated Systems’ 23. David F. Hendry (1997), ‘The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting’ Name Index VOLUME II: Acknowledgements • An Introduction by the editor to both volumes appears in volume I Part I: Forecast Evaluation 1. Geoffrey H. Moore (1969), ‘Forecasting Short-Term Economic Change’ 2. Victor Zarnowitz (1979), ‘An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Forecasts of Aggregate Income, Output, and the Price Level’ 3. H.O. Stekler (1968), ‘Forecasting with Econometric Models: An Evaluation’ 4. Charles R. Nelson (1972), ‘The Prediction Performance of the FRB-MIT-PENN Model of the U.S. Economy’ 5. J.M. Bates and C.W.J. Granger (1969), ‘The Combination of Forecasts’ 6. C.W.J. Granger and P. Newbold (1973), ‘Some Comments on the Evaluation of Economic Forecasts’ 7. Robert T. Clemen (1989), ‘Combining Forecasts: A Review and Annotated Bibliography’ 8. E. Philip Howrey, Lawrence R. Klein and Michael D. McCarthy (1974), ‘Notes on Testing the Predictive Performance of Econometric Models’ 9. Ray C. Fair (1974), ‘An Evaluation of a Short-Run Forecasting Model’ 10. Ray C. Fair (1979), ‘An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models’ 11. Stephen K. McNees (1986), ‘Forecasting Accuracy of Alternative Techniques: A Comparison of U.S. Macroeconomic Forecasts’ 12. R.A. Kolb and H.O. Stekler (1990), ‘The Lead and Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts’ 13. Roy Batchelor and Pami Dua (1990), ‘Forecaster Ideology, Forecasting Technique, and the Accuracy of Economic Forecasts’ 14. Stephen K. McNees (1992), ‘The Uses and Abuses of ‘Consensus’ Forecasts’ 15. Gordon Leitch and J. Ernest Tanner (1991), ‘Economic Forecast Evaluation: Profits Versus The Conventional Error Measures’ 16. Francis X. Diebold and Roberto S. Mariano (1995), ‘Comparing Predictive Accuracy’ 17. David I. Harvey, Stephen J. Leybourne and Paul Newbold (1998), ‘Tests for Forecast Encompassing’ 18. Clive W.J. Granger (1996), ‘Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?’ Part II: Forecasting with Leading Indicators 19. S.S. Alexander and H.O. Stekler (1959), ‘Forecasting Industrial Production-Leading Series Versus Autoregression’ 20. Saul H. Hymans (1973), ‘On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points’ and ‘Comments and Discussion’ 21. Alan J. Auerbach (1982), ‘The Index of Leading Indicators: “Measurement Without Theory”’ 22. Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch (1991), ‘Forecasting Output With the Composite Leading Index: A Real-Time Analysis’ 23. Rebecca A. Emerson and David F. Hendry (1996), ‘An Evaluation of Forecasting Using Leading Indicators’ Part III: Forecasting in Finance 24. Alfred Cowles 3rd (1933), ‘Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?’ 25. Harry V. Roberts (1959), ‘Stock-Market “Patterns” and Financial Analysis: Methodological Suggestions’ 26. C.W.J. Granger (1972), ‘Analysis of Stock Market Price Data’ 27. Clive W.J. Granger (1992), ‘Forecasting Stock Market Prices: Lessons for Forecasters’ 28. Christopher G. Lamoureux and William D. Lastrapes (1993), ‘Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities’ 29. Jaesun Noh, Robert F. Engle and Alex Kane (1994), ‘Forecasting Volatility and Option Prices of the S&P 500 Index’ 30. Kenneth F. Kroner, Kevin P. Kneafsey and Stijn Claessens (1995), ‘Forecasting Volatility in Commodity Markets’ 31. Kenneth D. West and Dongchul Cho (1995), ‘The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility’ 32. Steve Satchell and Allan Timmermann (1995), ‘An Assessment of the Economic Value of Non-linear Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts’ Part IV: Economic Forecasting Using Surveys 33. Richard D. Rippe and Maurice Wilkinson (1974), ‘Forecasting Accuracy of the McGraw-Hill Anticipatory Data’ 34. John A. Carlson (1977), ‘A Study of Price Forecasts’ 35. Victor Zarnowitz (1985), ‘Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts’ Name Index

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Book SynopsisA typical market for a commodity, a service or a financial instrument can be divided into the cash market and the futures market. Futures markets are currencies by the standardization of the futures contracts and their trading in highly organized exchanges.Futures Markets contains in three volumes the most influential articles in this field covering a broad range of topics including market characteristics, speculation, pricing, efficiency, interest rates and insurance and foreign characteristics. Important contributors to the volume include among others: Ronald J. Anderson, Eugene F. Fama, Stephen Figlewski, Paul A. Samuelson, Hans R. Stoll and Holbrook Working. As well as providing an authoritative introduction to accompany the piece, the editor has also written three extensive review articles which survey the field of futures markets.This significant collection presents a compact guide to the subject of Futures Markets and will be an essential companion for students, researchers and practitioners.Trade Review’. . . a publishing bargain. The best of the literature in one convenient package is a must for financial economists and libraries, academics or corporate.’Table of ContentsContents: Volume I: Foreword (R. Roll) Introduction Part I: Overview Part II: Early Classics Part III: Institutions Part IV: Market Characteristics Part V: Volatility Part VI: Speculation Part VII: Determinants of Hedging Index • Volume II: Part I: Pricing Part II: Efficiency Part III: Price Distributions Part IV: Chaos Part V: Theories of Hedging Part VI: Portfolio Selection with Futures Part VII: Various Markets Index • Volume III: Part I: Overview Part II: Stock Indexes Part III: Arbitrage Part IV: Portfolio Insurance Part V: Volatility and the October 1987 Crash Part VI: Interest Rates and Insurance Part VII: Foreign Currencies Name Index

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Book SynopsisThis is a book is for leaders, to aid their practice in strategy, decision making and change - it's a very practical (field) guide to foresight and foresight tools. It's aimed at leaders in manufacturing, service, non-profit, government and fourth sector organisations. Strategic Foresight is a set of skills and tools used to explore potential futures exercising your 'futures muscles' so that you are able to plan for and take advantage of these possible futures. The book first explores how we think about the future, looking at ambiguity and uncertainty and how these play a role in our ability to think into the future. It introduces a simple model of preferred thinking styles and talks about the 'baggage' and values that form our perceptions. The next section covers models, tools and maps that people will find useful for developing their own Foresight and using this knowledge to make decisions, whilst uncovering innovation and creativity to turn this Foresight knowledge to competitive advantage. This is not a comprehensive list - just a selection of the most effective tools with their use and case studies that are easy and effective to use. The next two sections cover: How to identify emerging trends; what impact they may have on your business; the strategic importance of early recognition; and how to apply the knowledge in your business. Harnessing Foresight as a spring board for innovation and creativity to develop new paradigms and take advantage of what may come. Finally, the author pulls it all together by showing how to develop a practical method of exploring potential futures in the context of your existing business in order to take robust decisions and develop strategies that help you work towards your preferred future. Case studies are interspersed throughout the book to illustrate the points made along with exercises, where appropriate, to encourage people to 'think along' with the ideas and new ways of approaching Strategic Foresight.Table of ContentsAppreciation Introduction Chapter 1: What is Strategic Foresight? Chapter 2: Strategic Foresight – Starting the sense-making journey Chapter 3: Thinking about Thinking – Developing your Strategic Foresight muscles Chapter 4: The Future is a Foreign Country Chapter 5: Preparing for the Future – Using Environmental Scanning, emerging trends and engaging your best for change Chapter 6: Mapping and Exploration of the Systems Chapter 7: Systems Thinking – Messes and wicked problems Chapter 8: Exploring Different Paradigms Chapter 9: Learning from the Future and Engaging in Change Chapter 10: Flexing your Foresight Muscles Index

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Book SynopsisOrganizations today face an increasingly complex contextual environment. The intensity of what is recognized as a VUCA world has changed how they view the world, interact with each other, and respond to this environment. Understanding the Future shows individuals and organizations how to develop scenario planning, using the Intuitive Logics (IL) model, to perceive what is happening in the business environment and how to improve strategic decision-making to plan for uncertainty. Ronald Bradfield, a renowned scenario planning practitioner, traces the origins of scenario planning from its evolution to associated techniques and details the IL development process from Stage 1 to Stage 5. He includes an insightful chapter on how people think, describing the role of heuristics and biases, reviewing some of the commonly known ones, and concludes with the pros and cons of the IL model. This book includes extensive reference material: appendices, a list of Foresight and Scenario organizations, Futures journals and magazines, published scenarios, select readings and guides, and the author's unique case material directly from his world-leading consulting work of the past 30 years. Understanding the Future is an exceptional, comprehensive guide for postgrads, practitioners, leaders, policymakers and anyone involved in organizational development or management risk who needs to understand the IL scenario framework and its value in addressing organizational challenges amidst complexity.

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Book SynopsisThis report forecasts growth in developing Asia of 7.1% in 2021 and 5.4% in 2022 in an uneven recovery caused by divergent growth paths. Its theme chapter explores sustainable agriculture.Growth forecasts are revised up for East Asia and Central Asia from the projections made in April, but down for South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific. This reflects differences in vaccination progress and control of domestic COVID-19 outbreaks but also other factors, including rising commodity prices and depressed tourism. Inflation is expected to remain under control. The main risks to the economic outlook come from the COVID-19 pandemic, including the emergence of new variants, slower-than-expected vaccine rollouts, and waning vaccine effectiveness.Sustainable food production and agricultural systems that are resilient to climate change will be crucial for developing Asia. To transform agriculture in the region, its economies must tackle challenges from changing consumer demand, changing demographics, and a changing and more fragile environment.

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