Non Fiction Books

Book SynopsisUnderstanding medicines management is central to the nursing role. As a nurse, you will need to make informed decisions about medicine use and optimisation that's tailored to each patient in your care. This book equips you with the theoretical and practical foundations to do just that. It covers the key components of medicines management for all fields, using a scenario-based approach to illustrate how each topic relates to your real-life practice .Key featuresFully mapped to the NMC standards of proficiency for registered nurses (2018)Scenarios and activities help you to translate the theory into evidence-based practice, from injections and dosing to safety and ethics. Now with new discussions on medicines adherence, access to medicines, cultural competence and treating children.Acts as a stepping stone to support your readiness to undertake a prescribing qualification upon registration

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Book SynopsisIn the sequel to Seamus O'Rourke's popular first memoir, Standing in Gaps, this innocent Leitrim lad finally flees the nest, briefly sampling life in New York, Dublin and London before inevitably returning to his beloved, duller than dishwater existence at home a life which now includes alcohol, Doctor Hook and some low-budget romance.But man does not live on romance alone and Seamus needs to get to the bottom of his general uselessness, spurred on as always by his ever-the-realist father, who prophesised his mediocrity from an early age. Seamus continues to underachieve whilst struggling to interpret his auld lad's advice and watered-down compliments 'You weren't as bad as I often saw ya', 'They must be badly stuck, if they asked you', and the classic 'What kind of an eejit are ya?' all while capturing the innocence and the absurdity of rural life in 1980s and 1990s Ireland.As always, O'Rourke finds diamond-tipped-needles in bales of really bad hay, providing more laughter and stories of mayhem for fans.A gifted actor, writer and storyteller produces a memoir that is simply gifted' Joe Duffy

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Book SynopsisIntroducing Pause, a wellbeing workbook journal, designed to guide you on a path of self-awareness, gratitude, and personal growth.

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Book SynopsisUse data analytics to drive innovation and value throughout your network infrastructure Network and IT professionals capture immense amounts of data from their networks. Buried in this data are multiple opportunities to solve and avoid problems, strengthen security, and improve network performance. To achieve these goals, IT networking experts need a solid understanding of data science, and data scientists need a firm grasp of modern networking concepts. Data Analytics for IT Networks fills these knowledge gaps, allowing both groups to drive unprecedented value from telemetry, event analytics, network infrastructure metadata, and other network data sources. Drawing on his pioneering experience applying data science to large-scale Cisco networks, John Garrett introduces the specific data science methodologies and algorithms network and IT professionals need, and helps data scientists understand contemporary network technologies, applications, and data sources. After establishing this shared understanding, Garrett shows how to uncover innovative use cases that integrate data science algorithms with network data. He concludes with several hands-on, Python-based case studies reflecting Cisco Customer Experience (CX) engineers’ supporting its largest customers. These are designed to serve as templates for developing custom solutions ranging from advanced troubleshooting to service assurance. Understand the data analytics landscape and its opportunities in Networking See how elements of an analytics solution come together in the practical use cases Explore and access network data sources, and choose the right data for your problem Innovate more successfully by understanding mental models and cognitive biases Walk through common analytics use cases from many industries, and adapt them to your environment Uncover new data science use cases for optimizing large networks Master proven algorithms, models, and methodologies for solving network problems Adapt use cases built with traditional statistical methods Use data science to improve network infrastructure analysisAnalyze control and data planes with greater sophistication Fully leverage your existing Cisco tools to collect, analyze, and visualize data Table of Contents Foreword xvii Introduction: Your future is in your hands! xviiiChapter 1 Getting Started with Analytics 1 What This Chapter Covers 1 Data: You as the SME 2 Use-Case Development with Bias and Mental Models 2 Data Science: Algorithms and Their Purposes 3 What This Book Does Not Cover 4 Building a Big Data Architecture 4 Microservices Architectures and Open Source Software 5 R Versus Python Versus SAS Versus Stata 6 Databases and Data Storage 6 Cisco Products in Detail 6 Analytics and Literary Perspectives 7 Analytics Maturity 7 Knowledge Management 8 Gartner Analytics 8 Strategic Thinking 9 Striving for “Up and to the Right” 9 Moving Your Perspective 10 Hot Topics in the Literature 11 Summary 12Chapter 2 Approaches for Analytics and Data Science 13 Model Building and Model Deployment 14 Analytics Methodology and Approach 15 Common Approach Walkthrough 16 Distinction Between the Use Case and the Solution 18 Logical Models for Data Science and Data 19 Analytics as an Overlay 20 Analytics Infrastructure Model 22 Summary 33Chapter 3 Understanding Networking Data Sources 35 Planes of Operation on IT Networks 36 Review of the Planes 40 Data and the Planes of Operation 42 Planes Data Examples 44 A Wider Rabbit Hole 49 A Deeper Rabbit Hole 51 Summary 53Chapter 4 Accessing Data from Network Components 55 Methods of Networking Data Access 55 Pull Data Availability 57 Push Data Availability 61 Control Plane Data 67 Data Plane Traffic Capture 68 Packet Data 70 Other Data Access Methods 74 Data Types and Measurement Considerations 76 Numbers and Text 77 Data Structure 82 Data Manipulation 84 Other Data Considerations 87 External Data for Context 89 Data Transport Methods 89 Transport Considerations for Network Data Sources 90 Summary 96Chapter 5 Mental Models and Cognitive Bias 97 Changing How You Think 98 Domain Expertise, Mental Models, and Intuition 99 Mental Models 99 Daniel Kahneman’s System 1 and System 2 102 Intuition 103 Opening Your Mind to Cognitive Bias 104 Changing Perspective, Using Bias for Good 105 Your Bias and Your Solutions 106 How You Think: Anchoring, Focalism, Narrative Fallacy, Framing, and Priming 107 How Others Think: Mirroring 110 What Just Happened? Availability, Recency, Correlation, Clustering, and Illusion of Truth 111 Enter the Boss: HIPPO and Authority Bias 113 What You Know: Confirmation, Expectation, Ambiguity, Context, and Frequency Illusion 114 What You Don’t Know: Base Rates, Small Numbers, Group Attribution, and Survivorship 117 Your Skills and Expertise: Curse of Knowledge, Group Bias, and Dunning-Kruger 119 We Don’t Need a New System: IKEA, Not Invented Here, Pro-Innovation, Endowment, Status Quo, Sunk Cost, Zero Price, and Empathy 121 I Knew It Would Happen: Hindsight, Halo Effect, and Outcome Bias 123 Summary 124Chapter 6 Innovative Thinking Techniques 127 Acting Like an Innovator and Mindfulness 128 Innovation Tips and Techniques 129 Developing Analytics for Your Company 140 Defocusing, Breaking Anchors, and Unpriming 140 Lean Thinking 142 Cognitive Trickery 143 Quick Innovation Wins 143 Summary 144Chapter 7 Analytics Use Cases and the Intuition Behind Them 147 Analytics Definitions 150 How to Use the Information from This Chapter 151 Priming and Framing Effects 151 Analytics Rube Goldberg Machines 151 Popular Analytics Use Cases 152 Machine Learning and Statistics Use Cases 153 Common IT Analytics Use Cases 170 Broadly Applicable Use Cases 199 Some Final Notes on Use Cases 214 Summary 214Chapter 8 Analytics Algorithms and the Intuition Behind Them 217 About the Algorithms 217 Algorithms and Assumptions 218 Additional Background 219 Data and Statistics 221 Statistics 221 Correlation 224 Longitudinal Data 225 ANOVA 227 Probability 228 Bayes’ Theorem 228 Feature Selection 230 Data-Encoding Methods 232 Dimensionality Reduction 233 Unsupervised Learning 234 Clustering 234 Association Rules 240 Sequential Pattern Mining 243 Collaborative Filtering 244 Supervised Learning 246 Regression Analysis 246 Classification Algorithms 248 Decision Trees 249 Random Forest 250 Gradient Boosting Methods 251 Neural Networks 252 Support Vector Machines 258 Time Series Analysis 259 Text and Document Analysis 262 Natural Language Processing (NLP) 262 Information Retrieval 263 Topic Modeling 265 Sentiment Analysis 266 Other Analytics Concepts 267 Artificial Intelligence 267 Confusion Matrix and Contingency Tables 267 Cumulative Gains and Lift 269 Simulation 271 Summary 271Chapter 9 Building Analytics Use Cases 273 Designing Your Analytics Solutions 274 Using the Analytics Infrastructure Model 275 About the Upcoming Use Cases 276 The Data 276 The Data Science 278 The Code 280 Operationalizing Solutions as Use Cases 281 Understanding and Designing Workflows 282 Tips for Setting Up an Environment to Do Your Own Analysis 282 Summary 284Chapter 10 Developing Real Use Cases: The Power of Statistics 285 Loading and Exploring Data 286 Base Rate Statistics for Platform Crashes 288 Base Rate Statistics for Software Crashes 299 ANOVA 305 Data Transformation 310 Tests for Normality 311 Examining Variance 313 Statistical Anomaly Detection 318 Summary 321Chapter 11 Developing Real Use Cases: Network Infrastructure Analytics 323 Human DNA and Fingerprinting 324 Building Search Capability 325 Loading Data and Setting Up the Environment 325 Encoding Data for Algorithmic Use 328 Search Challenges and Solutions 331 Other Uses of Encoded Data 336 Dimensionality Reduction 337 Data Visualization 340 K-Means Clustering 344 Machine Learning Guided Troubleshooting 350 Summary 353Chapter 12 Developing Real Use Cases: Control Plane Analytics Using Syslog Telemetry 355 Data for This Chapter 356 OSPF Routing Protocols 357 Non-Machine Learning Log Analysis Using pandas 357 Noise Reduction 360 Finding the Hotspots 362 Machine Learning—Based Log Evaluation 366 Data Visualization 367 Cleaning and Encoding Data 369 Clustering 373 More Data Visualization 375 Transaction Analysis 379 Task List 386 Summary 387Chapter 13 Developing Real Use Cases: Data Plane Analytics 389 The Data 390 SME Analysis 394 SME Port Clustering 407 Machine Learning: Creating Full Port Profiles 413 Machine Learning: Creating Source Port Profiles 419 Asset Discovery 422 Investigation Task List 423 Summary 424Chapter 14 Cisco Analytics 425 Architecture and Advisory Services for Analytics 426 Stealthwatch 427 Digital Network Architecture (DNA) 428 AppDynamics 428 Tetration 430 Crosswork Automation 431 IoT Analytics 432 Analytics Platforms and Partnerships 433 Cisco Open Source Platform 433 Summary 434Chapter 15 Book Summary 435 Analytics Introduction and Methodology 436 All About Networking Data 438 Using Bias and Innovation to Discover Solutions 439 Analytics Use Cases and Algorithms 439 Building Real Analytics Use Cases 440 Cisco Services and Solutions 442 In Closing 442Appendix A Function for Parsing Packets from pcap Files 4439781587145131, TOC, 9/19/18

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Book SynopsisYoko Tawada's first book of essays in English, both a brilliant exploration of language and its relationship to power, colonialism and history and an introduction to an electrifying new side of the National Book Award Winner

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Book SynopsisDr Natalie Cawley is a psychotherapist and counselling psychologist with a BSc, MSc and PsychD in psychology and has worked and trained in both the NHS and private practice, within paediatric and adult services. Her experience covers a wide range of health conditions and clinical presentations in the community and within psychiatric hospitals. Her specialism in attachment theory, the driving force behind our psychological and emotional functioning, informs all her therapeutic work. Her hobbies include stand-up comedy mostly watching, although she has performed a set about bad dates that went better than expected. She lives and works in Manchester and can be contacted via www.nataliecawley.com. Just About Coping is her first book.

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Book SynopsisThe Rough Guide to the USA's National Parks is a celebration of 62 extraordinary destinations.Discover the 62 official national parks of the USA with the brand-new Rough Guide to the USA's National Parks, from the iconic favourites of California's Joshua Tree and Yosemite to the vast wildernesses of Alaska's Wrangell-St Elias, the Badlands of South Dakota and the tropical seascape of the US Virgin Islands, by way of otherworldly caves at New Mexico's Carlsbad Caverns and the forests and waterfalls of Virginia's Shenandoah. Dedicated entries on what makes each Park special, including details on its highlights, wildlife and unique natural landscapes are complemented by stunning photography which brings to life the very best of the USA's protected wildernesses. Over 150 high-quality images bring the 62 Parks to life, while evocative descriptive text accompanies each entry, capturing each Park's distinct spirit and exactly what makes it so special. Organized geographically by state, with a brief overview of essential information, the book has been written by one of Rough Guides' expert US authors.Features of the Rough Guide to the USA's National Parks- Inspires with focussed coverage of every national park in the USA- Stylish coffee-table book with more than 150 inspiring photographs- Employs Rough Guides' "tell it like it is" ethos- Organised geographically by stateAbout Rough Guides: Rough Guides have been inspiring travellers for over 35 years, with over 30 million copies sold. Synonymous with practical travel tips, quality writing and a trustworthy "tell it like it is" ethos, the Rough Guides list includes more than 260 travel guides to 120+ destinations, gift-books and phrasebooks.

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Book SynopsisLaurence Blair is an award-winning writer and journalist. He was born and raised in Dorset, southwest England, and studied Ancient and Modern History at the University of Oxford. Since 2014, he has reported from across Latin America for outlets including the BBC, Economist, Financial Times, Guardian, New York Times and National Geographic. He currently lives in Asunción, Paraguay.

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Book SynopsisAn exploration of public performance in everyday life, by the leading cultural and social thinkerThe Performer explores the relations between performing in art (particularly music), politics and everyday experience. It focuses on the bodily and physical dimensions of performing, rather than on words. Richard Sennett is particularly attuned to the ways in which the rituals of ordinary life are performances. The book draws on history and sociology, and more personally on the author's early career as a professional cellist, as well as on his later work as a city planner and social thinker. It traces the evolution of performing spaces in the city; the emergence of actors, musicians, and dancers as independent artists; the inequality between performer and spectator; the uneasy relations between artistic creation and social and religious ritual; the uses and abuses of acting by politicians. The Janus-faced art of performing is both destructive and civilizing. This is the first in a trilogy of books on the fundamental DNA of human expression: performing, narrating, and imaging.

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Book Synopsis''A serious reinvestigation full of revealing background information that sheds additional light on what was then and now remains a shocking crime'' Paul French, author ofMidnight in Peking ''This riveting, eye-opening investigation of a 70-year-old murder mystery reads like a whodunit ... A true crime must-read'' Dean Jobb, author ofThe Case of the Murderous Dr. Cream ''As much social history as it is gripping true crime'' Jeremy Craddock, author ofThe Jigsaw Murders ''A meticulously researched re-examination'' Caitlin Davies, author ofPrivate Inquiries: The Secret History of Female Sleuths 1950s France. A British establishment figure. A shocking crime. A miscarriage of justice. The search for truth. In 1952, in a peaceful corner of Provence, a farmer''s son stumbled upon a terrible scene. Three bodies: a husband and wife shot dead, their ten-year-old daughter savagely beaten to death. They were all British. So begins one of the most notorious murder cases in French history. Sir Jack Drummond was a senior advisor to the British government, a household name who was respected and admired. His fame made the case a cause célèbre in France and resulted in the swift conviction of a local farmer, but questions about Drummond''s life and death remain unanswered. In this bold new investigation, Stephanie Matthews and Daniel Smith strip away the prejudice and propaganda to reveal a grave miscarriage of justice. A light is shone on Drummond''s secret life in the shadows of the Cold War, painting a portrait of an enigmatic man who may not have been the innocent holidaymaker he appeared to be, and recasting one of the twentieth century''s most notorious murders in a fascinating and important new light.

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Book SynopsisKristie De Garis is a writer, photographer and drystone waller based in Perthshire, Scotland. With her two children and two ex-husbands she lives a quiet and carefully curated life. Drystone: A Life Rebuilt is her first book.

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Book SynopsisIn 1947 Simone de Beauvoir took a road trip across America. She travelled from coast to coast, from New York to Hollywood, taking in New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana and Washington DC. She rode a pony through the Grand Canyon, listened to jazz in New Orleans and visited the nightclubs of Chicago. And she captured the entire experience in her journal. This captivating book is that journal and an immersive portrait of postwar America. Beauvoir was disturbed by the poverty and segregation she encountered and at the same time delighted by American energy and friendliness. Intimate, warm, and compulsively readable, this is travel writing from the great feminist and thinker, Simone de Beauvoir. On New York: 'I walk between the steep cliffs at the bottom of a canyon where no sun penetrates: it's permeated by a salt smell. Human history is not inscribed on these carefully calibrated buildings: They are closer to prehistoric caves than to the houses of Paris or Rome.'On Los Angeles: 'I watch the Mexican dances and eat chilli con carne, which takes the roof off my mouth, I drink the tequila and I'm utterly dazed with pleasure.'

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Book SynopsisThe story, ideology, and recipes of master pizzaiolo Franco Pepe, founder of the world-famous Pizzeria Pepe in GraniFranco Pepe is no ordinary pizzaiolo he's a culinary genius who has revolutionized the world of pizza. Born into a family of bakers, Pepe mastered the craft of traditional pizza-making before dedicating himself to experimentation with ancient flour blends and fermentation methods. He founded his restaurant, Pepe in Grani, in Caiazzo, near Naples, and quickly gained worldwide acclaim, attracting hordes of food-savvy travelers with exceptional pizzas made with his unique signature dough and high-quality, locally sourced ingredients.Franco Pepe: Pizza Chef reveals how Pepe elevated the humble pizza to new culinary heights. Packed with rich storytelling and vivid photographs, the cookbook uncovers the secrets behind Pepe's artistry and presents 30 exclusive recipes designed for home cooks.Beginning with the simple, rustic Pizza a Libretto, the recipe collection ranges from La Ritrovata, a nostalgic homage to Pepe's father's pizza marinara, and Memento, a plant-based pizza featuring chickpea cream, to the sweet and savory Crisommola del Vesuvio, inspired by Franco's desire to use rare local apricots, and Sensazione di Costiera, which brings together the citrus scents and seafood flavors of the Amalfi Coast. Together, the recipes reveal Pepe's passion for high-quality, locally sourced ingredients and the delicate balance of flavors that make his pizzas so exceptional.The book also features forewords by food writer Faith Willinger, chef and author Nancy Silverton, and food writer and pizza aficionado Daniel Young.

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Book SynopsisCelebrate the timeless wit and wisdom of Jane Austen with this exquisite collection of classic quotations, fascinating facts and trivia questions that will enchant and inspire. Each page is filled with tart humour, astute observations, and the essential truths of love and life, showcasing Austen at her finest.

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Book SynopsisIn Be(com)ing Nigerian: A Guide, Elnathan John provides an affecting, unrestrained and satirical guide to the Nigerians you will meet at home and abroad, or on your way to hell and to heaven. It is a searing look at how power is performed, negotiated and abused in private and in public; in politics, business, religious institutions and in homes. From the exploration of religious hypocrisy to inequality in matters of the heart, the collection is a jab at Nigerian society and what it means to be a Nigerian. Beyond poking fun at the holders of power, it is a summons, a provocation and a call for introspection among all levels of society. As is often said in Nigeria, when you point with one finger, there are four others pointing back at you. This engrossing read is a must-have for Nigerians on how to move beyond shame and arrogance, and for non-Nigerians, a uniquely informative guide on how to accept their awe and envy of Nigerians. It is an invitation for everyone to embrace and rejoice in their inner Nigerian. Here is your definitive guide to Be(com)ing Nigerian.Trade Review"Elnathan John is a writer to watch.” - The New York TimesTable of ContentsINTRODUCTION In The Beginning... SPIRITUAL How To Worship The Nigerian God How To Be A Pastor How To Fly Private To The Glory Of God IN SICKNESS AND IN HEALTH How To Be Sick How To Die TEMPORAL How To Show Love How To Own A Slave How To Communicate In Times Of Crises How To Conduct A Meeting How To Be A Car Owner WORKING CLASS, WORKING HARD How To Use A Business Card How To Identify A Middle Class Nigerian How To Be A Mechanic How To Be A Nigerian Writer How To Be A Journalist How To Be A Kidnapper LAW AND LAW ENFORCEMENT How To Be A Lawyer How To Be A Police Officer POLITRICKING How To Be A Politician How To Be First Lady How To Be An Opposition Politician INTERNATIONAL CONNECTIONS How To Get Foreign Friends How To Be A Good African SAVIOURS LOCAL AND INTERNATIONAL How To Run A Nigerian Ngo How To Be A Black Saviour WHEN IN NIGERIA... NOTES FOR THE FOREIGNER IN NIGERIA How To Be An Expatriate In Nigeria Tips For The Foreign Journalist Covering Nigerian Elections APPENDIX AND TRAVEL ADVICE Travel Advice For Nigerians Going To The U.S. Travel Advice For Nigerians Going To The UK Common Nigerian Phrases And Expressions

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Book SynopsisEssays by Patrick Guinness poet, novelist, translator, editor, critic and speaker of several languages exploring his personal history, the unofficial history of places in which he has lived, and some of the lesser known byways of European literature and art.

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Book SynopsisThroughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing - and recovering - their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different". This book covers topics ranging from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe.Trade ReviewWinner of the 2011 Gold Medal Arthur Ross Book Award, Council on Foreign Relations Winner of the 2010 Paul A. Samuelson Award, TIAA-CREF One of USA Today's "Year's Best Business Books To Make Sense of Financial Crisis" Listed on Bloomberg.com by James Pressley as one of "our favorite financial-crisis books this year" Shortlisted for the 2010 Spear's Book of the Year Award in Financial History Finalist for the 2011 Estoril Global Issues Distinguished Book Prize Runner-Up for the Book of the Year, The Atlantic Finalist for the 2009 Business Book Award ("Best of the Rest") in Current Interest, 800-CEO-READ One of Library Journal Best Business Books - Economics/U.S. Economy category "Mr. Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard University, accurately predicted the eurozone debt crisis and for years has been telling anyone who would listen that China posed the next big threat to the global economy. He is starting to look right, again... 'China is the classic "This time is different" story,' Mr. Rogoff said."--Andrew Ross Sorkin, New York Times "[E]ssential reading ... both for its originality and for the sobering patterns of financial behaviour it reveals."--Economist "Reinhart and Rogoff have compiled an impressive database, which covers eight centuries of government debt defaults from around the world. They have also collected statistics on inflation rates from every country where information is available and on banking crises and international capital flows over the past couple of centuries. This lengthy historical study gives what they call a 'panoramic view' of the unending cycle of boom and bust, showing how claims that 'this time is different' are invariably proven wrong... This Time Is Different doesn't simply explain what went wrong in our most recent crisis. This book also provides a roadmap of how things are likely to pan out in the years to come... This Time Is Different is an important addition to the literature of financial history."--Edward Chancellor, Wall Street Journal "Everyone working on economic policy should own This Time is Different and open it for a bracing blast of sobriety when things seem to be going well."--Greg Ip, Washington Post "[T]he most comprehensive study of financial crises and their aftermath."--Eduardo Porter, New York Times "The authors use copious amounts of data ... to make the compelling case that any well-informed person should have seen the Great Recession coming. The essence of their book is that while financial crises come in different varieties, they are not mysteriously born of undersea earthquakes, but frequently occurring events that can be spotted and even controlled if politicians and regulators know what to look for."--Devin Leonard, New York Times "This Time is Different takes a Sergeant Friday, just-the-facts-ma'am approach: before we start theorizing, let's take a hard look at what history tells us. One side benefit of this approach is that the current book manages to be both extremely useful to professional economists and accessible to the intelligent lay reader. The Reinhart-Rogoff approach has already paid off handsomely in making sense of current events."--Robin Wells and Paul Krugman, New York Review of Books "[A] terrific book."--Andrew Ross Sorkin, New York Times "Among policy experts and economists, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly ... has become so influential that when somebody says, 'We live in a Reinhart-Rogoff world,' everybody else in the room nods sagely."--Justin Lahart, Wall Street Journal "Professor Rogoff and his longtime collaborator Carmen Reinhart ... know more about the history of financial crises than anyone alive. The pair have just published their broad survey of financial crises, This Time is Different. In an era when most 'analysts' rely on maybe 30 or 40 years' worth of financial history--and then only that of the U.S.--the authors' knowledge of financial crises and government bond defaults going back to the Spanish empire and before offers a richer perspective."--Brett Arends, Wall Street Journal "[O]ne of the most important economic books of 2009."--Jon Hilsenrath, Wall Street Journal "[T]he definitive book on financial crises."--Steven Pearlstein, Washington Post "Two top-notch economists provide a clear and interesting explanation of why economic crises keep occurring. Broadly speaking, downturns such as the one we are recovering from are historically associated with characteristics that should sound quite familiar to today's investors."--David Schwartz, Financial Times "[A] masterpiece."--Martin Wolf, Financial Times "The four most dangerous words in finance are 'this time is different.' Thanks to this masterpiece by Carmen Reinhart at the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard, no one can doubt this again... The authors have put an immense amount of work into collecting the data financial institutions needed if they were to have any chance of making quantitative risk management work."--Martin Wolf, Financial Times "Here's a deep and rewarding assignment for all of you, young and old, poor and rich, bullish and bearish. Retire to a quiet spot with a copy of This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff."--Bob Lenzner, Forbes.com "[A] fine new history of financial debacles."--Daniel Gross, Newsweek "Wouldn't it be nice to have $1,000 for every time a pundit proclaims an era of endless prosperity, consigning booms and busts to the dumpster of history? The next time you hear that canard (and you will) pour yourself a single malt and dip into Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff's landmark study, This Time Is Different. Wherever you open the book, you'll find proof that debt-fueled expansions have ended in financial ruin for hundreds of years... The result is a visual history laid out in beguilingly simple graphs and tables, making the book both definitive--a must read for professors and investors--and accessible to a wider audience."--James Pressley, Bloomberg News "Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have delivered a powerful and eloquent statement... Reinhart and Rogoff have done an extraordinary job in putting together statistics on government debt--a task that economic historians should have done long ago but shied away from because of the difficulties of defining 'government', which is often complex and multi-layered."--Harold James, The American Interest "Unlike prior narrative accounts of market panics from such finance writers as Charles Kindleberger and Edward Chancellor, Reinhart and Rogoff give us a data-driven study that is global in sweep but also a model of clarity. The authors package their notably nonhysterical analysis of the latest crisis in a large, self-contained section of the book inviting harried readers to skip right ahead to it."--Daniel Akst, CNNMoney.com "A tour de force of quantitative analysis covering financial crises affecting 66 countries over the past 800 years, the book identifies pre-crisis patterns that recur with eerie consistency. This Time is Different is a must-read for anyone on the lookout for canaries in coal mines."--Barron's "This is certainly one of the must-read books of the year."--Arnold Kling, Econlog.com "Rogoff and Reinhart ... provide an eye-opening look at the cycles of boom and bust and how governments deal with those cycles."--Arkansas Business "[A] valuable new book."--Idaho Statesman "Having studied mountains of economic data during the past eight centuries, the authors insightfully point out the highly repetitive nature of financial crises resulted from a dangerous mix of hubris, euphoria and amnesia."--Shanghai Daily "This Time is Different ... is an unusually powerful bull detector designed to protect investors and taxpayers alike--eventually, at least, and provided the spirit is willing... The book's most memorable passages--what the authors call its 'core life'--are to be found not in colorful stories about long-ago personalities, but rather in its various tables and figures. They take some time to comprehend, but any responsible citizen can and ought to consider they evidence they present. It is overwhelming."--David Warsh, Harvard Magazine "Financial folly, economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff show in this groundbreaking book, knows no boundaries and has no expiration date... For a book built around numbers, This Time is Different makes for surprisingly good reading. The authors are well aware that human nature is at the heart of the disasters they document, and they enliven the text with brief and amusing accounts of charlatans and cheats."--Paul Wiseman, USA Today "The credit crunch of 2007 became the financial crash of 2008 and the recession of 2009. But there has been much debate about the scale of this crisis, and how it ranks against previous events. Reinhart and Rogoff have produced the most detailed study yet of financial crises, going back as far as 12th-century China... [This Time is Different] will be a vital source of reference in debates on the causes and consequences of financial crises. By cataloguing so thoroughly every known instance of financial crisis, it performs a significant service and opens up new lines of inquiry."--Andrew Gamble, New Statesman "[T]his is the kind of economics we desperately need, as it is relevant, fact-based and replete with wisdom from the past--and lessons for the future."--Irish Times "For those who want to relearn the forgotten lessons of the past, This Time is Different, by economics professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, is an excellent place to start... These are lessons worth learning."--Liaquat Ahamed, National Interest "This book's distinctive strength is that it's built around a massive international database going back as far as twelfth-century China and medieval Europe."--Harvard Business Review "[S]uperb."--Neil Reynolds, Globe & Mail "Reinhart and Rogoff have compiled an encyclopedic analysis of the history of financial crises over the last 750 years. But their volume is not merely of historical interest. Rather, it has great relevance for anyone interested in understanding how the current financial crisis is likely to unfold."--Choice "Reinhart and Rogoff present a sobering reminder that financial crises are a serial phenomenon--caused in no small part by the seductive 'this-time-is-different syndrome,' the prevalent belief that to us, here and now, old economic laws of motion no longer apply. Their ambitious quantitative history of financial crises draws out sweeping parallels between financial crises, across times and continents; and between inflating away domestic debt, currency debasements, and defaults on external debt."--Finance & Development "[I]nstant classic tome on debt crises."--Alen Mattich, Dow Jones Newswires "[A]wesome."--William Easterly, AidWatch "One book in particular has been circulating among economists and market insiders. This Time is Different analyzes vast amounts of historical data on financial debacles, including state failures around the world, bank crises, currency woes and high inflation. The title satirizes those who fail to learn from past blunders and repeat them while insisting, 'This time is different.'"--Hideo Tsuchiya, Nikkei Weekly "Reinhart and Rogoff have produced a splendid book detailing the massive self-destructive behavior that all states have been undergoing over the past several centuries... Reading this excellent book on the paths of previous economic cycles could help avoid some of the worst results of our self-destructive financial acts."--Lloyd Demause, Journal of Psychohistory "Anyone looking for a more academic take on where this meltdown places in the history of financial folly should turn to This Time is Different, a magisterial work on the causes and consequences of crises stretching back 800 years."--Matthew Valencia, Economist.com "I couldn't put it down until I had gone all the way through it, and then I immediately ordered it as an assigned text for my Spring 2010 MBA course, 'The Development of Financial Institutions and Markets.' My students are finding it useful and engaging."--Richard Sylla, EH.Net "Easily the most useful, and arguably the best, is this splendid piece of research and analysis on, as the subtitle says, 800 years' worth of booms and busts."--Bill Emmott, Survival "This Time Is Different changes the way we can study financial crises. It is the start of a truly comprehensive approach to the subject... It adds new ideas that will be useful for gauging the risk of future crises and perhaps even reducing their impact, if investors and policymakers are willing to learn from other people's mistakes, not just their own mistakes."--Kurt Schuler, CATO Journal "[T]he book will be essential reading for anyone who wants to put the recent crisis into some historical perspective--and get some ideas on how to prevent, or at least delay, the next one."--David Orrell, Foresight "It's the only book I have seen that provides, with great detail and over 800 years, clearly defined, analytical, data-driven evidence of what the impact of a post-financial crisis period is and hence what we can anticipate... I've never seen anything that comes close in terms of being comprehensive. It's a tour de force."--Dambisa Moyo, The Browser "[T]his Time is Different [is a] landmark work on financial crises."--Megan McArdle, TheAtlantic.com "Readable, shocking, and vital, this is a book that every investor who has been tempted by a hefty interest rate in a faraway land should study."--Andrew Allentuck, National Post "[This Time is Different] is perhaps the finest study of financial crises ever published."--Ezra Klein, Washington Post "[A] modern classic... In their landmark study of hundreds of financial crises in 66 countries over 800 years, Reinhart and Rogoff find oft-repeated patterns that ought to alert economists when trouble is on the way. One thing stops them waking up in time: their perpetual belief that 'this time is different.'"--Ross Gittins, Sydney Morning Herald "[S]eminal."--Rana Faroohar and Bill Saporito, Time "[T]he pre-eminent history of financial crises."--Adam Davidson, New York Times Magazine "The book by Reinhart and Rogoff is one for the ages, and it will be remembered as a landmark event, not least given the coincidence of its publication of such a deep and broad historical analysis of economic crises with the very moment when the world was entering a massive 'hundred year flood' type of calamity. The authors' empirical work is encyclopedic and much of the data are highly original and the result of intense effort. The necessary theoretical framing is provided, but in terms that all target readers should be able to absorb. The overall view is panoramic and the message carried is an important one for all to hear--policymakers, commentators, and researchers. Crises are still with us, they are very painful indeed, and perhaps it will always be so. It is up to us to figure out why and how crises happen, and to figure out what, if anything, can and should be done to mitigate their devastating effects in future. This book is therefore, above all, a call to action."--Journal of Economic Literature "[E]conomists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff take a much-needed longer view, placing the current crisis, with a focus on the U.S. housing bubble, into historical perspective."--Anil Hira, Perspectives on Politics "Reinhart and Rogoff's book belongs to the tradition of studies that appear in the middle of a crisis but it manages to keep its spine above water because of its historical depth and systematic rigour."--Sakis Gekas, Dublin Review of BooksTable of ContentsLIST OF TABLES xiii LIST OF FIGURES xvii LIST OF BOXES xxiii PREFACE xxv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xxxvii PREAMBLE: SOME INITIAL INTUITIONS ON FINANCIAL FRAGILITY AND THE FICKLE NATURE OF CONFIDENCE xxxix PART I: Financial Crises: An Operational Primer 1 Chapter 1: Varieties of Crises and Their Dates 3 Crises Defined by Quantitative Thresholds: Inflation, Currency Crashes, and Debasement 4 Crises Defined by Events: Banking Crises and External and Domestic Default 8 Other Key Concepts 14 Chapter 2: Debt Intolerance: The Genesis of Serial Default 21 Debt Thresholds 21 Measuring Vulnerability 25 Clubs and Regions 27 Reflections on Debt Intolerance 29 Chapter 3: A Global Database on Financial Crises with a Long-Term View 34 Prices, Exchange Rates, Currency Debasement, and Real GDP 35 Government Finances and National Accounts 39 Public Debt and Its Composition 40 Global Variables 43 Country Coverage 43 PART II: Sovereign External Debt Crises 49 Chapter 4: A Digression on the Theoretical Underpinnings of Debt Crises 51 Sovereign Lending 54 Illiquidity versus Insolvency 59 Partial Default and Rescheduling 61 Odious Debt 63 Domestic Public Debt 64 Conclusions 67 Chapter 5: Cycles of Sovereign Default on External Debt 68 Recurring Patterns 68 Default and Banking Crises 73 Default and Inflation 75 Global Factors and Cycles of Global External Default 77 The Duration of Default Episodes 81 Chapter 6: External Default through History 86 The Early History of Serial Default: Emerging Europe, 1300-1799 86 Capital Inflows and Default: An "Old World" Story 89 External Sovereign Default after 1800: A Global Picture 89 PART III: The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt and Default 101 Chapter 7: The Stylized Facts of Domestic Debt and Default 103 Domestic and External Debt 103 Maturity, Rates of Return, and Currency Composition 105 Episodes of Domestic Default 110 Some Caveats Regarding Domestic Debt 111 Chapter 8: Domestic Debt: The Missing Link Explaining External Default and High Inflation 119 Understanding the Debt Intolerance Puzzle 119 Domestic Debt on the Eve and in the Aftermath of External Default 123 The Literature on Inflation and the "Inflation Tax" 124 Defining the Tax Base: Domestic Debt or the Monetary Base? 125 The "Temptation to Inflate" Revisited 127 Chapter 9: Domestic and External Default: Which Is Worse? Who Is Senior? 128 Real GDP in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults 129 Inflation in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults 129 The Incidence of Default on Debts Owed to External and Domestic Creditors 133 Summary and Discussion of Selected Issues 136 PART IV: Banking Crises, Inflation, and Currency Crashes 139 Chapter 10: Banking Crises 141 A Preamble on the Theory of Banking Crises 143 Banking Crises: An Equal-Opportunity Menace 147 Banking Crises, Capital Mobility, and Financial Liberalization 155 Capital Flow Bonanzas, Credit Cycles, and Asset Prices 157 Overcapacity Bubbles in the Financial Industry? 162 The Fiscal Legacy of Financial Crises Revisited 162 Living with the Wreckage: Some Observations 171 Chapter 11: Default through Debasement: An "Old World Favorite" 174 Chapter 12: Inflation and Modern Currency Crashes 180 An Early History of Inflation Crises 181 Modern Inflation Crises: Regional Comparisons 182 Currency Crashes 189 The Aftermath of High Inflation and Currency Collapses 191 Undoing Domestic Dollarization 193 PART V: The U.S. Subprime Meltdown and the Second Great Contraction 199 Chapter 13: The U.S. Subprime Crisis: An International and Historical Comparison 203 A Global Historical View of the Subprime Crisis and Its Aftermath 204 The This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome and the Run-up to the Subprime Crisis 208 Risks Posed by Sustained U.S. Borrowing from the Rest of the World: The Debate before the Crisis 208 The Episodes of Postwar Bank-Centered Financial Crisis 215 A Comparison of the Subprime Crisis with Past Crises in Advanced Economies 216 Summary 221 Chapter 14: The Aftermath of Financial Crises 223 Historical Episodes Revisited 225 The Downturn after a Crisis: Depth and Duration 226 The Fiscal Legacy of Crises 231 Sovereign Risk 232 Comparisons with Experiences from the First Great Contraction in the 1930s 233 Concluding Remarks 238 Chapter 15: The International Dimensions of the Subprime Crisis: The Results of Contagion or Common Fundamentals? 240 Concepts of Contagion 241 Selected Earlier Episodes 241 Common Fundamentals and the Second Great Contraction 242 Are More Spillovers Under Way? 246 Chapter 16: Composite Measures of Financial Turmoil 248 Developing a Composite Index of Crises: The BCDI Index 249 Defining a Global Financial Crisis 260 The Sequencing of Crises: A Prototype 270 Summary 273 PART VI: What Have We Learned? 275 Chapter 17: Reflections on Early Warnings, Graduation, Policy Responses, and the Foibles of Human Nature 277 On Early Warnings of Crises 278 The Role of International Institutions 281 Graduation 283 Some Observations on Policy Responses 287 The Latest Version of the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome 290 DATA APPENDIXES 293 A.1. Macroeconomic Time Series 295 A.2. Public Debt 327 A.3. Dates of Banking Crises 344 A.4. Historical Summaries of Banking Crises 348 NOTES 393 REFERENCES 409 NAME INDEX 435 SUBJECT INDEX 443

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