Finance and the finance industry Books

Book SynopsisA book that radically changes our understanding of the capitalist system, particularly the role of financial markets. It breaks free of traditional ideological arguments of the Right and Left and points to a new way of understanding and spreading the wealth-generating capabilities of capitalism.Trade ReviewRaghuram Rajan, Winner of the Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics 2013, The Center for Financial Studies "Raghuram G. Rajan and Luigi Zingales ... argue persuasively that free markets 'cannot flourish without the very visible hand of government.'"--Alan Murray, Wall Street Journal "Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists will dismay both titans of industry and their foes across the barricades... It's written for the rest of us."--Peter Coy, Business Week "[O]ne of the most powerful defenses of the free market ever written."--Bruce Bartlett, National Review OnlineTable of ContentsPreface ix Introduction 1 PART I:THE BENEFITS OF FREE FINANCIAL MARKETS CHAPTER 1: Does Finance Benefit Only the Rich? 25 CHAPTER 2: Shylock Transformed 44 CHAPTER 3: The Financial Revolution and Individual Economic Freedom 68 CHAPTER 4: The Dark Side of Finance 93 CHAPTER 5: The Bottom Line on Financial Development 108 PART II: WHEN DO FINANCIAL MARKETS EMERGE? CHAPTER 6: The Taming of the Government 129 CHAPTER 7: The Impediments to Financial Development 157 CHAPTER 8: When Does Finance Develop? 172 PART III: THE GREAT REVERSAL CHAPTER 9: The Great Reversal between Wars 201 CHAPTER 10: Why Was the Market Suppressed? 226 CHAPTER 11: The Decline and Fall of Relationship Capitalism 247 PART IV: HOW CAN MARKETS BE MADE MORE VIABLE POLITICALLY? CHAPTER 12: The Challenges Ahead 275 CHAPTER 13: Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists 293 Conclusion 311 Notes 315 Bibliography 342 Index 359

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Book SynopsisProvides a concise and powerful account of the underlying principles of modern finance, drawing on a generation of theoretical and empirical advances in the field.Trade Review"Neoclassical Finance is a significant contribution to the field that deserves to be widely cited. Stephen Ross provides a clear and concise discussion of basic theory, a new and in some ways unique look at arbitrage and market efficiency, and resolves a long-standing empirical puzzle about closed end funds." - Richard Roll, Japan Alumni Chair in Finance, Anderson School of Business at the University of California, Los Angeles"Table of ContentsPREFACE ix CHAPTER ONE: No Arbitrage: The Fundamental Theorem of Finance 1 CHAPTER TWO: Bounding the Pricing Kernel, Asset Pricing, and Complete Markets 22 CHAPTER THREE: Efficient Markets 42 CHAPTER FOUR: A Neoclassical Look at Behavioral Finance: The Closed-End Fund Puzzle 66 BIBLIOGRAPHY 95 INDEX 101

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Book SynopsisIntroduces a more realistic and holistic framework called KuU - the Known, the unknown, and the Unknowable - that enables one to conceptualize the different kinds of financial risks and design effective strategies for managing them.Trade ReviewWinner of the 2012 Kulp-Wright Book Award, American Risk and Insurance Association Finalist for the 2010 Paul A. Samuelson Award, TIAA-CREF "It is a bold book, tackling both theory and practice and spanning the worlds of (among others) banking, insurance, real estate, and investment. It is also utterly engrossing... Although this book is most obviously addressed to risk managers and regulators, I think it should be read by every intellectually curious person with skin in the financial game. If the investor or trader doesn't come away with at least one or two ideas of practical importance to his financial life, he is a 'sleepreader.'"--Brenda Jubin, Reading the Markets blog "Peppered with anecdotes and prominent examples, the book never abandons the practical side of its topic. It will be helpful for readers interested in only specific subtopics that each article is a stand-alone piece. I recommend this book to a wide audience: academics and practitioners, of course, but even people who are not directly involved in the financial sector, but are interested in it, will find it definitely worth their time."--Tobias Nigbur, Financial Markets and Portfolio ManagementTable of ContentsPreface vii Chapter 1: Introduction by Francis X. Diebold, Neil A. Doherty, and Richard J. Herring 1 Chapter 2: Risk: A Decision Maker's Perspective by Sir Clive W. J. Granger 31 Chapter 3: Mild vs. Wild Randomness: Focusing on Those Risks That Matter by Benoit B. Mandelbrot and Nassim Nicholas Taleb 47 Chapter 4: The Term Structure of Risk, the Role of Known and Unknown Risks, and Nonstationary Distributions by Riccardo Colacito and Robert F. Engle 59 Chapter 5: Crisis and Noncrisis Risk in Financial Markets: A Unified Approach to Risk Management by Robert H. Litzenberger and David M. Modest 74 Chapter 6: What We Know, Don't Know, and Can't Know about Bank Risk: A View from the Trenches by Andrew Kuritzkes and Til Schuermann 103 Chapter 7: Real Estate through the Ages: The Known, the Unknown, and the Unknowable by Ashok Bardhan and Robert H. Edelstein 145 Chapter 8: Reflections on Decision-making under Uncertainty by Paul R. Kleindorfer 164 Chapter 9: O n the Role of Insurance Brokers in Resolving the Known, the Unknown, and the Unknowable by Neil A. Doherty and Alexander Muermann 194 Chapter 10: Insuring against Catastrophes by Howard Kunreuther and Mark V. Pauly 210 Chapter 11: Managing Increased Capital Markets Intensity: The Chief Financial Officer's Role in Navigating the Known, the Unknown, and the Unknowable by Charles N. Bralver and Daniel Borge 239 Chapter 12: The Role of Corporate Governance in Coping with Risk and Unknowns by Kenneth E. Scott 277 Chapter 13: Domestic Banking Problems by Charles A. E. Goodhart 286 Chapter 14: Crisis Management: The Known, The Unknown, and the Unknowable by Donald L. Kohn 296 Chapter 15: Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable by Richard J. Zeckhauser 304 List of Contributors 347 Index 359

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Book SynopsisAnnuities are financial products that guarantee the holder a fixed return so long as the holder remains alive, thereby providing insurance against lifetime uncertainty. This book offers readers a theoretical analysis of the functioning of private annuity markets.Trade Review"Eytan Sheshinski has written the definitive book on the economics of annuities. In light of the demographic transitions in many countries and the changing nature of social insurance, this work will be extremely important in the years ahead."—Jerry R. Green, Harvard University"This book develops the economic theory of private annuity markets and fills an important gap in previous research. Its systematic and insightful analysis provides a foundation on which future students of insurance markets, and policy analysts concerned with these markets, are sure to build."—James Poterba, Massachusetts Institute of Technology"With exceptional clarity, Sheshinski presents the analysis of savings and annuitization, incorporating new results and raising interesting research questions."—Peter Diamond, Massachusetts Institute of Technology"This work is a very complete study of a surprisingly neglected field. The technical and conceptual problems raised by uncertainty as to the individual's lifetime, central to this study, are handled with great skill and is well written."—Kenneth J. Arrow, Nobel Prize-winning economistTable of ContentsPreface xiii Chapter 1: Introduction 1 1.1 Brief Outline of the Book 5 1.2 Short History of Annuity Markets 9 1.3 References to Actuarial Finance 11 Chapter 2: Benchmark Calculations: Savings and Retirement 12 Chapter 3: Survival Functions, Stochastic Dominance, and Changes in Longevity 15 3.1 Survival Functions 15 3.2 Changes in Longevity 18 Chapter 4: Life Cycle Model with Longevity Risk: First Best and Competitive Equilibrium 21 4.1 First Best 21 4.2 Competitive Equilibrium: Full Annuitization 23 4.3 Example: Exponential Survival Function 25 4.4 Equivalence of Short-term, Long-term, and Deferred Annuities 26 Appendix 27 Chapter 5: Comparative Statics, Discounting, Partial Annuitization, and No Annuities 29 5.1 Increase in Wages 29 5.2 Increase in Longevity 30 5.3 Positive Time Preference and Rate of Interest 32 5.4 Partial Annuitization: No Short-term Annuity Market 33 5.5 Partial Annuitization: Low Returns on Annuities 35 5.6 Length of Life and Retirement 35 5.7 Optimum Without Annuities 38 5.8 No Annuities: Risk Pooling by Couples 40 5.9 Welfare Value of an Annuity Market 41 5.10 Example: Exponential Survival Function 42 Appendix 44 Chapter 6: Subjective Beliefs and Survival Probabilities 45 6.1 Deviations of Subjective from Observed Frequencies 45 6.2 Behavioral Effects 45 6.3 Exponential Example 47 6.4 Present and Future Selves 48 Chapter 7: Moral Hazard 51 7.1 Introduction 51 7.2 Comparison of First Best and Competitive Equilibrium 51 7.3 Annuity Prices Depending on Medical Care 54 Appendix 55 Chapter 8: Uncertain Future Survival Functions 56 8.1 First Best 56 8.2 Competitive Separating Equilibrium (Risk-class Pricing) 59 8.3 Equilibrium with Short-term Annuities 60 8.4 The Efficiency of Equilibrium with Long-term Annuities 62 8.5 Example: Exponential Survival Functions 65 Chapter 9: Pooling Equilibrium and Adverse Selection 67 9.1 Introduction 67 9.2 General Model 69 9.3 Example 71 Appendix 75 Chapter 10: Income Uncertainty 77 10.1 First Best 77 10.2 Competitive Equilibrium 78 10.3 Moral Hazard 79 Chapter 11: Life Insurance and Differentiated Annuities 81 11.1 Bequests and Annuities 81 11.2 First Best 83 11.3 Separating Equilibrium 84 11.4 Pooling Equilibrium 84 11.5 Period-certain Annuities and Life Insurance 87 11.6 Mixed Pooling Equilibrium 90 11.7 Summary 93 Appendix 94 Chapter 12: Annuities, Longevity, and Aggregate Savings 97 12.1 Changes in Longevity and Aggregate Savings 97 12.2 Longevity and Individual Savings 98 12.3 Longevity and Aggregate Savings 98 12.4 Example: Exponential Survival Function 102 12.5 No Annuities 103 12.6 Unintended Bequests 104 Appendix 106 Chapter 13: Utilitarian Pricing of Annuities 109 13.1 First-best Allocation 109 13.2 Competitive Annuity Market with Full Information 112 13.3 Second-best Optimum Pricing of Annuities 113 Appendix 116 Chapter 14: Optimum Taxation in Pooling Equilibria 118 14.1 Introduction 118 14.2 Equilibrium with Asymmetric Information 119 14.3 Optimum Commodity Taxation 122 14.4 Optimum Taxation of Annuities 125 Appendix 129 Chapter 15: Bundling of Annuities and Other Insurance Products 131 15.1 Introduction 131 15.2 Example 132 Chapter 16: Financial Innovation--Refundable Annuities (Annuity Options) 135 16.1 The Timing of Annuity Purchases 135 16.2 Sequential Annuity Market Equilibrium Under Survival Uncertainty 137 16.3 Uncertain Future Incomes: Existence of a Separating Equilibrium 140 16.4 Refundable Annuities 144 16.5 A Portfolio of Refundable Annuities 146 16.6 Equivalence of Refundable Annuities and Annuity Options 147 Appendix 150 References 153 Index 157

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Book SynopsisThe efficiency of financial markets depends on the operation of core infrastructure - exchanges, central counter-parties, and central securities depositories. This book examines how markets are, and should be, run. It evaluates the similarities and differences between exchanges, central counter-parties, and central securities depositories.Trade Review"Overall, this excellent work is a must-read for anybody involved in the regulation of market infrastructure institutions. It provides valuable lessons and cautionary tales for how to create a sturdy and stable financial market infrastructure."--Journal of International Banking Law and RegulationTable of ContentsForeword and Acknowledgments xi List of Acronyms xiii Introduction 1 Nature of Governance 1 Concerns 2 Issues 3 Approach 3 Structure 4 Part One: Background Information and Analysis 7 Chapter One: Definitions 9 Infrastructure 9 Exchanges, Central Counterparties, and Central Securities Depositories 21 Conclusions 36 Chapter Two: Market Power 40 Preliminary Comments 40 Exchanges 45 CCPs 61 CSDs 71 Conclusions 81 Part Two: Survey Evidence 83 Chapter Three: The Allocation of Regulatory Powers over Securities Markets 85 World Federation of Exchanges 85 International Council of Securities Associations 88 Infrastructure Institutions in Major Markets 90 Conclusions 114 Chapter Four: Regulation and Governance of MarketInfrastructure Institutions: Global Perspective 117 The Financial Sector Assessment Program and Securities Markets Assessments 117 Observations 125 Conclusions 141 Chapter Five: Governance of Market Infrastructure Institutions: A Snapshot 145 Data 146 Analysis 151 Conclusions 164 Part Three: Case Studies 167 Chapter Six: Exchanges 169 Deutsche Borse / London Stock Exchange: Proposed iX Merger 2000 170 Euronext: Purchase of LIFFE 2001 177 Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing: The Penny Stocks Incident 2002 180 NASDAQ: Attempted Takeover of London Stock Exchange 2006-8 189 New York Stock Exchange: Resignation of Chairman-CEO 2003 194 Osaka Securities Exchange: "Murakami Fund" Purchase of Shares 2005 198 Chapter Seven: CCPs and CSDs 201 Canadian Depository for Securities: Ownership, Usage, and Board Representation to 2008 201 Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation: EuroCCP 2000-2002 207 Deutsche Borse: Creation of Clearstream International 1999-2002 213 Euroclear: Creation, Ownership, and Board Structure up to 2006 217 LCH.Clearnet: Creation and Difficulties 2003-6 231 Part Four: Policy Analysis and Recommendations 245 Chapter Eight: What Is the Most Efficient Governance Structure? 247 Ownership and Mandate: Archetypal Models and Primary Goals 248 Ownership Model and Mandate: Critical Factors Affecting Efficiency 253 The Board: Role and Composition 276 Concluding Discussion and General Propositions 293 Chapter Nine: Who Should Regulate What? 301 Complexity 301 Factors and Constraints Affecting Relative Merits of Different Allocation Structures 307 Concluding Discussion and General Propositions 334 Chapter Ten: How Should Market Infrastructure Institution Governance Be Regulated? 339 Preliminary Comments 339 Investor Protection 342 Efficiency, Fairness, and Transparency 348 Systemic Risk Reduction 353 Concluding Discussion and General Propositions 357 Authorities 363 Cases and Decisions 365 Notes 367 References 395 List of Contributors 433 Index 437

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Book SynopsisShows that investment professionals cannot make good portfolio choices unless they understand the determinants of asset prices. The author sets out an approach to asset pricing in a nonmathematical form that can be comprehensible to a broad range of investment professionals, including investment advisors, money managers, and financial analysts.Trade Review"Throughout the past 40 years, Sharpe has remained one of the most influential voices in finance for both academics and practitioners. As is true for all of Sharpe's writings, investment professionals will do well to read Investors and Markets and carefully absorb its insights."--Ronald L. Moy, Financial Analysts Journal "William F. Sharpe says his pioneering work on the Capital Asset Pricing Model is ready for a makeover. The 42-year-old model--which earned Mr. Sharpe a Nobel Memorial Prize in economics in 1990-- is being revamped because Mr. Sharpe says he found a better way for portfolio managers and business-school students to learn about how portfolios are constructed and securities are priced... Mr. Sharpe's new book shows that a simulator based on the state/preference model can mimic market behavior and can be used where mean-variance analysis won't work."--Joel Chernoff, Pensions and Investments "William Sharpe has written a new book ... which may cause a revolution -- or, at least, a coup in finance... Investors and Markets brings the subjects of portfolio choice and asset pricing together into a single, integrated view of investment science... The impact of [this book], though more a coup than a revolution, deserves to occur more quickly."--John Finneran, The Motley Fool "Sharpe's Investors and Markets is an impressive and thought provoking work... [H]is work breaks new ground in the fields of portfolio and asset pricing theory. I highly recommend this book, particularly for planners interested in understanding the theory behind the advice that we give."--NAPFA Advisor "[Sharpe's book] has much that is good: setting out complex issues such as the capital-asset pricing model and market risk/reward theorem in readily understandable terms, showing the importance of trading. Mime preferences, risk aversion, how individual actions, perhaps irrational on occasion, can still lead to a rational outcome, estimates of the equity risk premium, and the relative value of passive and active investing."--Andrew Milligan, The Business EconomistTable of ContentsPREFACE vii CHAPTER ONE: Introduction 1 CHAPTER TWO: Equilibrium 9 CHAPTER THREE: Preferences 35 CHAPTER FOUR: Prices 63 CHAPTER FIVE: Positions 111 CHAPTER SIX: Predictions 129 CHAPTER SEVEN: Protection 149 CHAPTER EIGHT: Advice 185 REFERENCES 213 INDEX 215

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Book SynopsisIt is widely accepted that a large proportion of acquisition strategies fail to deliver the expected value. Globalizing markets characterized by growing uncertainty, together with the advent of new competitors, are further complicating the task of valuing acquisitions. Too often, managers rely on flawed valuation models or their intuition and experTrade Review"This book presents some practical advice for firms and their investment bankers on how to ‘de-bias' their judgement when making merger and acquisition decisions. . . . Practitioners in mergers and acquisitions should certainly consider adding this book to their existing toolkit."---David Butler, Economic RecordTable of ContentsLIST OF FIGURES vii LIST OF TABLES ix PREFACE xi About This Book xi Who Should Read This Book? Xii A New Strategic Valuation Approach as a Bridge between Theory and Practice xiv Academic Contribution and Features xvi A Guide through the Book xviii CHAPTER 1. LEARNING TO SEE, TO ADAPT TO, AND TO VALUE UNCERTAINTY 1 Learning to See Uncertainty 3 Learning to Adapt to Uncertainty 8 Learning to Value Uncertainty 11 Summary 15 PART I. LEARNING TO SEE UNCERTAINTY 17 CHAPTER 2. HOW TO DE-BIAS VALUATION OVER THE CYCLE 19 Problem Diagnosis: Why Acquisitions Occur in Go/No-Go Waves 20 Avoiding Irrational Infection of the Valuation Analysis 22 A Remedy for Uncertainty Neglect: Broaden Your Narrow View 25 Examples of Appropriate Real Options Thinking in Hot and Cold Deal Markets 32 Conclusions 41 CHAPTER 3. PLAYING AT SERIAL ACQUISITIONS: THE CASE OF VODAFONE 43 Six Potential Pitfalls in the Execution of a Serial Acquisition Strategy 44 Can Rational Analysis Discipline Strategy? 57 Dual Valuation of Growth Option Value to Avoid Irrational Infection 61 How to Use Option Games to Overcome Bidding Pitfalls 65 Conclusions 68 PART II. LEARNING TO ADAPT TO UNCERTAINTY 73 CHAPTER 4. STRATEGY AS OPTIONS GAMES 75 Classifying Acquisition Options under Competition 78 Expressing a Buy-and-Build Strategy as an Option Portfolio 81 Competition in the Bidding Game 87 Play Poker against Rivals Who Overshoot or Fall Asleep 93 Conclusions 95 CHAPTER 5. DUAL REAL OPTIONS VALUATION: THE XSTRATA CASE 101 Illustrative Example of the Dual Approach: Xstrata's Journey 103 Bottom-Up Framework: Xstrata's Serial Acquisitions 106 Top-Down Framework for Listed Companies: How Finance Can Enlighten Strategy 112 General Implications and Limitations 117 Conclusions 118 PART III. LEARNING TO VALUE UNCERTAINTY 121 CHAPTER 6. OPTION GAMES VALUATION 123 Designing and Solving an Option Bidding Game 124 Quantifying the Optionality of the Falconbridge Episode 133 Conclusions: How Option Games Can Deliver Their Potential 147 CHAPTER 7. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS 151 Biases and Options Are Everywhere 152 The Problem: Selected Pitfalls in Acquisition Decision Making 154 The Solution: How Executives Can De-bias Their Acquisition Decisions 158 Selected Implications to Deal Rationally with One's Own Biases,Financial Markets, and "Irrational" Rivals 163 Empirical Evidence 166 Promising Future Research Directions 169 Broaden Your View with Option Games 171 BIBLIOGRAPHY 173 INDEX 185

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Book SynopsisEconometric models are widely used in the creation and evaluation of economic policy in the public and private sectors. This book addresses the critical earlier stage of model development, the point at which potential models are inherently incomplete.Trade Review"This book is original and powerful. It develops a Bayesian paradigm that embraces the reality of applied modeling, in which 'discoveries' of things previously unimagined are made regularly. It will be of immediate interest to all economists and statisticians who want to push Bayesian principles toward innovative practice (and who doesn't?)."—Francis X. Diebold, University of Pennsylvania"How do we know whether a statistical model is good enough for a particular economic research problem? To answer this question, John Geweke introduces the concept of incomplete models, showing how they can be effective tools for model building. This book is a significant contribution to econometrics—and a pleasure to read."—Richard Paap, Erasmus University Rotterdam"This excellent book seamlessly links many important econometric methods, models, and concepts."—Gary Koop, University of StrathclydeTable of ContentsSeries Editors' Introduction vii Preface ix Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Chapter 2: The Bayesian Paradigm 7 2.1 Complete Models 10 2.2 Model Comparison and Averaging 16 2.3 Simulation 19 2.4 Model Evaluation 23 Chapter 3: Prior Predictive Analysis and Model Evaluation 34 3.1 Data and Models 35 3.2 Prior Predictive Analysis 47 3.3 Comparison with an Incomplete Model 71 3.4 Appendix: A Gaussian Copula for Evaluating Predictive Densities of Vector Functions of Interest 84 Chapter 4: Incomplete Structural Models 86 4.1 The Essential Elements of DSGE Models 88 4.2 Strong Econometric Interpretation 95 4.3 Weak Econometric Interpretation 98 4.4 Minimal Econometric Interpretation 109 4.5 Implications for Structural Modeling 118 Chapter 5: An Incomplete Model Space 122 5.1 Context and Motivation 123 5.2 Pools of Two Models 130 5.3 Examples of Two-Model Pools 135 5.4 Pools of Multiple Models 142 5.5 Multiple-Model Pools: An Example 150 5.6 Pooling and Model Improvement 155 5.7 Consequences of an Incomplete Model Space 158 References 161

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Book SynopsisIllustrates how information choice is used to answer questions in monetary economics, portfolio choice theory, business cycle theory, international finance, asset pricing, and other areas. This book covers work on topics such as rational inattention, information markets, and strategic games with heterogeneous information.Trade Review"The book is well structured and well written... Veldkamp does an excellent job combining different streams of the literature of information choice. This book helped me a lot to give a structure to my partial knowledge on imperfect information."--Christian Merkl, Journal of EconomicsTable of ContentsAcknowledgments ix PART I: PRELIMINARIES 1 Chapter 1: Why Study Information Choice? 3 1.1 Types of Learning Models 4 1.2 Themes That Run through the Book 5 1.3 Organization of the Book 8 Chapter 2: Bayesian Updating 11 2.1 Normal Random Variables 11 2.2 Uniform Random Variables 13 2.3 The Kalman Filter 13 2.4 Bayesian Updating in Continuous Time 15 2.5 Mathematical References 16 2.6 Exercises 16 Chapter 3: Measuring Information Flows 17 3.1 Preliminaries 17 3.2 Entropy and Rational Inattention 18 3.3 Additive Cost in Signal Precision 20 3.4 Diminishing Returns to Learning and Unlearnable Risk 21 3.5 Inattentiveness 22 3.6 Recognition 22 3.7 Information-Processing Frictions 23 3.8 Learning When Outcomes Are Correlated 23 3.9 What Is the Right Learning Technology? 26 3.10 Appendix: Matrix Algebra and Eigen-Decompositions 27 3.11 Exercises 27 Chapter 4: Games with Heterogeneous Information 29 4.1 Preliminary Concepts 29 4.2 Heterogeneous Information Eliminates Multiple Equilibria 30 4.3 Information and Covariance: A Beauty Contest Model 33 4.4 Strategic Motives in Information Acquisition 36 4.5 Example: Information Choice and Real Investment 39 4.6 Public Information Acquisition and Multiple Equilibria 42 4.7 Broader Themes and Related Literature 44 4.8 Exercises 45 PART II: INFORMATION CHOICE WITH COMPLEMENTARITY IN ACTIONS 47 Chapter 5: Disclosing Public Information 49 5.1 Payoff Externalities and the Social Value of Information 49 5.1.1 Coordination and Overreaction to Public Information 49 5.1.2 Morris and Shin's Social Cost of Public Information 50 5.1.3 Can Private Information Also Be Socially Costly? 51 5.1.4 A More General Approach 52 5.1.5 The Central Bank Transparency Debate 53 5.2 Public Information Crowds Out Private Information 53 5.2.1 Amador and Weill 2009 53 5.2.2 Complementary Public and Private Information 55 5.2.3 Private Information Makes Public Disclosures More Informative 57 5.3 More Information Increases Price Volatility 58 5.4 Public Information Makes Money Neutral 59 5.5 Broader Themes and Paths for Future Research 59 5.5.1 Speculative Currency Attacks 60 5.5.2 A Coordination-Based Theory of Leadership 61 5.6 Exercises 62 Chapter 6: Informational Inertia and Price-Setting 63 6.1 Lucas-Phelps Model 64 6.2 A Recipe for Inertia 67 6.3 Inattentiveness in Price-Setting 69 6.4 Rational Inattention Models of Price-Setting 72 6.5 Are Prices State Dependent or Time Dependent? 76 6.6 Broader Themes and Paths for Future Research 80 6.7 Exercises 82 PART III: INFORMATION CHOICE WITH SUBSTITUTABILITY IN ACTIONS 83 Chapter 7: Information Choice and Investment Choice 85 7.1 A One-Asset Model with Information Choice 86 7.2 Multiple Assets and Exogenous Information 91 7.3 Multiple Assets with Information Choice 94 7.3.1 Gains to Specialization 95 7.3.2 Identical Investors Hold Different Portfolios 96 7.4 Interpreting Information Constraints in Equilibrium 97 7.5 Broader Themes and Paths for Future Research 99 7.6 Appendix: Computing Expected Utility 101 7.7 Appendix: Correlated Assets 104 7.8 Exercises 105 Chapter 8: Returns to Scale in Information 107 8.1 Returns to Scale in Real Investment (One Asset) 108 8.2 Gains to Specialization (N Assets) 110 8.2.1 Result: Optimal Portfolio Choice 112 8.2.2 Result: Optimal Information Choice 113 8.2.3 Indifference Results 114 8.2.4 Preference for Early Resolution of Uncertainty 115 8.3 Markets for Information 116 8.4 Broader Themes 119 8.5 Paths for Future Research 120 8.6 Exercises 123 Chapter 9: Information as an Aggregate Shock 124 9.1 News about Future Productivity 125 9.1.1 Model 1: Cross-Industry Complementarity 125 9.1.2 Model 2: Gradual Capital Adjustment 127 9.1.3 Matching Stock Market Fluctuations 128 9.1.4 Empirical Evidence on News Shocks 129 9.2 News about Current Productivity 130 9.2.1 Model 3: Aggregate News Shocks 130 9.2.2 Model 4: Confusing Private and Public News 133 9.3 Broader Themes and Paths for Future Research 137 9.4 Exercises 138 PART IV: MEASUREMENT 141 Chapter 10: Testing Information Theories 143 10.1 Measuring Flows of News 143 10.2 Forecast Precision 144 10.3 Using Covariances to Infer Information Sets 145 10.4 Realized Profits as Proxies for Information 146 10.5 Information Choice as a Substitute for Information Data 146 10.6 The Bid-Ask Spread and PIN 149 Chapter 11: Conclusions 152 References 153 Index 165

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Book SynopsisIndividuals and families make key decisions that impact many aspects of financial stability and determine the future of the economy. These decisions involve balancing current sacrifice against future benefits. This book is about modeling this individual or family-based decision making using an optimizing dynamic programming model.Trade Review"Forward-Looking Decision Making provides interesting applications of the dynamic programming approach for analyzing individual decisions that balance current and future welfare. The subjects are timely and the book contains a good selection of topics, united by a common analytical theme."—John Ermisch, University of EssexTable of ContentsForeword vii Preface ix Chapter 1: Basic Analysis of Forward-Looking Decision Making 1 1.1 The Dynamic Program 1 1.2 Approximation 5 1.3 Stationary Case 6 1.4 Markov Representation 7 1.5 Distribution of the Stochastic Driving Force 9 Chapter 2: Research on Properties of Preferences 10 2.1 Research Based on Marshallian and Hicksian Labor Supply Functions 13 2.2 Risk Aversion 15 2.3 Intertemporal Substitution 17 2.4 Frisch Elasticity of Labor Supply 19 2.5 Consumption-Hours Complementarity 20 Chapter 3: Health 23 3.1 The Issues 23 3.2 Basic Facts 25 3.3 Basic Model 26 3.4 The Full Dynamic-Programming Model 31 3.5 The Health Production Function 35 3.6 Preference Parameters 36 3.7 Solving the Model 37 3.8 Concluding Remarks 38 Chapter 4: Insurance 42 4.1 The Model 43 4.2 Calibration 45 4.3 Results 46 Chapter 5: Employment 50 5.1 Insurance 52 5.2 Dynamic Labor-Market Equilibrium 53 5.3 The Employment Function 58 5.4 Econometric Model 59 5.5 Properties of the Data 64 5.6 Results 65 5.7 Concluding Remarks 69 Chapter 6: Idiosyncratic Risk 70 6.1 The Joint Distribution of Lifetime and Exit Value 73 6.2 Economic Payoffs to Entrepreneurs 74 6.3 Entrepreneurs in Aging Companies 82 6.4 Concluding Remarks 85 Chapter 7: Financial Stability with Government-Guaranteed Debt 87 7.1 Introduction 87 7.2 Options 92 7.3 Model 94 7.4 Calibration 100 7.5 Equilibrium 101 7.6 Roles of Key Parameters 113 7.7 Concluding Remarks 115 7.8 Appendix: Value Functions 116 References 119 Index 123

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Book SynopsisPresents the innovative principles needed to address the instability of the markets and to rebuild our financial system. This book traces the evolution of ideas and institutions in the American banking system since the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913. It explains how the Fed took classic central banking wisdom from Britain and Europe.Trade Review"A well-written, scholarly dissection that should be required reading for all graduate courses (and perhaps some advanced undergraduate) in macroeconomics or monetary economics."--Choice "With lucid precision, Mehrling traces the history of how Fed policy makers became biased toward 'excessive elasticity'... Mehrling saves the best for the end, where he describes the Fed's battle to save the system with an alphabet soup of lending programs."--James Pressley, Bloomberg News "I continue to ponder Mehrling's main claims, but in any case this is an important book about the new Fed."--Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution "In The New Lombard Street, Perry Mehrling ... provides a lucid account of how the system worked when it was working--and of the growing role assumed by the Fed in an era of global economic volatility and 'credit-fueled bubbles.'"--Glenn C. Altschuler, Tulsa World "[A] fantastic book."--Rortybomb, Mike Konczal blog "[I]mportant... Mehrling's new book tries to do just what Bagehot did: to give an account both of how and why the Fed acted when it reinvented the rules in the middle of a financial crisis, and of what the implications for future monetary policy will be."--Harold James, Central Banking Journal "This is an excellent and accessible analysis for anyone wishing to understand the origins of the financial crisis and how the Fed came to respond as it did."--Larry Hatheway, Business Economist "[T]he book can be read as an important contribution in the ongoing debate on the future of central banks. In terms of monetary policy thinking, this book is another contribution to the increasing awareness that central banks, perhaps lured by seeming success of inflation targeting, in the years before 2008 did not manage to strike the right balance between monetary and financial stability."--Lars Fredrik Oksendal, Enterprise & SocietyTable of ContentsAcknowledgments xi Introduction 1 A Money View Perspective 2 Lessons from the Crisis 6 Chapter One: Lombard Street, Old and New 11 The Inherent Instability of Credit 12 The Old Lombard Street 18 The New Lombard Street 23 Chapter Two: Origins of the Present System 30 From National Banking to the Fed 30 From War Finance to Catastrophe 37 Noncommercial Credit in Depression and War 43 Chapter Three: The Age of Management 48 Monetary Policy and the Employment Act 52 Listening to the Academics 57 Monetary Walrasianism 60 A Dissenting View 65 Chapter Four: The Art of the Swap 71 Currency Swaps and the UIP Norm 72 Brave New World 79 From Modern Finance to Modern Macroeconomics 85 Chapter Five: What Do Dealers Do? 92 Inside the Money Market 93 Funding Liquidity and Market Liquidity 98 Anatomy of a Crisis 103 Monetary Policy 107 Chapter Six: Learning from the Crisis 113 The Long Shadow of Jimmy Stewart 116 A Stress Test of Moulton-Martin 123 Dealer of Last Resort 132 Conclusion 136 Notes 141 References 149 Index 159

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Book SynopsisThe financial crisis that began in 2007 in the United States swept the world, producing substantial bank failures and forcing unprecedented state aid for the crippled global financial system. This title draws critical lessons from the causes of the crisis and proposes important regulatory reforms, including guidelines.Trade ReviewJean Tirole, Winner of the 2014 Nobel Prize in Economics "This compact but powerful book by three internationally recognized European economists is well worth reading. The authors offer a thoughtful review of the current global financial crisis and a number of considered recommendations for ameliorating the next and inevitable one."--Choice "Balancing the Banks, by three French economists, focuses on what went wrong with financial regulation and how it can be strengthened. It offers an excellent appreciation of the intrinsic dilemmas involved in regulating financial institutions, along with an explanation of why regulation is necessary, and addresses, among other topics, how to deal with distressed banks. The book provides a useful non-American view of the financial system, with lessons from practices in European countries."--Foreign AffairsTable of ContentsAcknowledgments vii Chapter 1: Introduction by Mathias Dewatripont, Jean-Charles Rochet, and Jean Tirole 1 Regulation in a Historical Perspective 1 To Regulate or Not to Regulate? 3 The Challenges Facing Prudential Regulation 6 Building an Adaptive Regulatory System in a Global World 7 Keeping a Balance 8 Chapter 2: Lessons from the Crisis by Jean Tirole 10 Part I: What Happened? 11 Part II: How Should the Financial System Be Reformed? 47 Chapter 3: The Future of Banking Regulation by Jean-Charles Rochet 78 The Basel Accords 78 The Breakdown of the Basel Prudential Regime 86 The Necessary Reforms 100 Chapter 4: The Treatment of Distressed Banks by Mathias Dewatripont and Jean-Charles Rochet 107 Reforming Prudential Policy for Distressed Banks 110 Macroeconomic and Systemic Considerations 118 International Cooperation 122 References 131 Index 137

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Book SynopsisThe ways financial analysts, traders, and other specialists use information and learn from each other are of fundamental importance to understanding how markets work and prices are set. This book analyzes how markets aggregate information and examines the impacts of market arrangements on the aggregation process and overall performance of markets.Trade Review"[R]eading Professor Vives's prose was a joy. His explanations for why various results obtain are clear and the flow from model to model is natural. Results in later chapters are frequently related to results in earlier chapters, tying the whole book together... [I]t is an excellent reference."--Lawrence R. Glosten, Journal of Economic Literature "Written in a simple and easy to understand language and providing an intuitive analysis of sophisticated models, this work can be a valuable reference for graduate courses in financial economics and microeconomics. Also, being thought-provoking, I find this book to be excellent reading material for researchers who work in both the asset pricing and market microstructure areas."--Leon Zolotoy, Economic RecordTable of ContentsPreface xi Introduction and Lecture Guide 1 References 12 Chapter 1: Aggregation of Information in Simple Market Mechanisms: Large Markets 15 1.1 Introduction and Overview 15 1.2 Large Cournot Markets 17 1.3 Welfare in Large Cournot Markets with Asymmetric Information 27 1.4 Information Aggregation in Smooth Large Markets 29 1.5 Auctions and Voting 38 1.6 Endogenous Information Acquisition 40 1.7 Summary 45 1.8 Appendix 46 1.9 Exercises 48 References 51 Chapter 2: Aggregation of Information in Simple Market Mechanisms: How Large Is Large? 53 2.1 A General Linear-Normal Cournot Model 54 2.2 Convergence to Price Taking in a Cournot Market 57 2.3 Endogenous Information Acquisition 58 2.4 Convergence to the First-Best: Market Power and Information Aggregation 62 2.5 Convergence in Auctions 67 2.6 Summary 70 2.7 Appendix 71 2.8 Exercises 74 References 76 Chapter 3: Rational Expectations and Supply Function Competition 78 3.1 Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Concepts, Problems, and Welfare 78 3.2 Supply Function Competition and REE in a Continuum Economy 84 3.3 Welfare Analysis of REE 95 3.4 Strategic Supply Function Equilibria and Convergence to a Price-Taking Equilibrium 98 3.5 Double Auctions 100 3.6 Summary 102 3.7 Appendix 102 3.8 Exercises 103 References 105 Chapter 4: Rational Expectations and Market Microstructure in Financial Markets 107 4.1 Market Microstructure 108 4.2 Competitive Rational Expectations Equilibria 112 4.3 Informed Traders Move First and Face Risk-Neutral Competitive Market Makers 130 4.4 Hedgers and Producers in a Futures Market 135 4.5 Summary 145 4.6 Appendix 147 4.7 Exercises 148 References 152 Chapter 5: Strategic Traders in Financial Markets 156 5.1 Competition in Demand Schedules 157 5.2 Informed Traders Move First 168 5.3 Market Makers Move First 177 5.4 An Application: Welfare Analysis of Insider Trading 183 5.5 Summary 189 5.6 Exercises 190 References 195 Chapter 6: Learning from Others and Herding 199 6.1 Herding, Informational Cascades, and Social Learning 200 6.2 Extensions of the Herding Model 204 6.3 A Smooth and Noisy Model of Learning from Others 210 6.4 Applications and Examples 222 6.5 The Information Externality and Welfare 227 6.6 Rational Expectations, Herding, and Information Externalities 236 6.7 Summary 239 6.8 Appendix 240 6.9 Exercises 241 References 244 Chapter 7: Dynamic Information Aggregation 248 7.1 Rational Expectations, Full-Information Equilibria, and Learning 248 7.2 Learning and Convergence to a Full-Information Equilibrium with Uninformed Firms 253 7.3 Market Dynamics with Asymmetric Information 257 7.4 Slow Learning and Convergence 261 7.5 Summary 266 7.6 Appendix 267 7.7 Exercises 271 References 273 Chapter 8: Dynamic Rational Expectations Models in Competitive Financial Markets 276 8.1 Dynamic Competitive Rational Expectations 277 8.2 The Impact of Risk-Averse Market Makers 285 8.3 Dynamic Trading with Short-Term Investors 294 8.4 Explaining Crises and Market Crashes 306 8.5 Summary 318 8.6 Appendix 320 8.7 Exercises 324 References 326 Chapter 9: Price and Information Dynamics in Financial Markets 330 9.1 Sequential Trading, Dynamic Market-Order Markets, and the Speed of Learning from Past Prices 331 9.2 Strategic Trading with Long-Lived Information 339 9.3 Market Manipulation and Price Discovery 347 9.4 Strategic Trading with Short-Lived Information 355 9.5 Strategic Hedging 358 9.6 Summary 360 9.7 Appendix 361 9.8 Exercises 362 References 365 Chapter 10: Technical Appendix 369 10.1 Information Structures and Bayesian Inference 369 10.2 Normal Distributions and Affine Information Structure 375 10.3 Convergence Concepts and Results 383 10.4 Games and Bayesian Equilibrium 390 References 398 Index 401

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Book SynopsisOffers an understanding of the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, and valuing capital goods. This title contains essential tools for academics, central banks, and more.Trade Review"Diebold and Rudebusch have succeeded in writing a milestone book that will be used variously as a standard reference, a guide for future research topics, a text book, or as a convenient introduction to the topics of yield curve modeling and macro-finance. Hence, while forecasting (especially about the future) is always fraught with peril, I'm confident that copies of the book will find their way into many collections, and that they will be actively used when they get there."--Leo Krippner, International Review of Economics and Finance "[T]he methods presented in the book are of great importance in financial market practice. The book is designed for academics, students, and practitioners working in yield curve modeling and forecasting, and it will be useful for all interested in bond markets and their links with the macroeconomic environment."--Malgorzata Doman, Zentralblatt MATHTable of ContentsList of Illustrations ix Introduction xi Preface xiii Additional Acknowledgment xvii 1 Facts, Factors, and Questions 1 *1.1 Three Interest Rate Curves 2 *1.2 Zero-Coupon Yields 3 *1.3 Yield Curve Facts 4 *1.4 Yield Curve Factors 7 *1.5 Yield Curve Questions 13 *1.6 Onward 22 2 Dynamic Nelson-Siegel 23 *2.1 Curve Fitting 23 *2.2 Introducing Dynamics 26 *2.3 State-Space Representation 30 *2.4 Estimation 34 *2.5 Multicountry Modeling 42 *2.6 Risk Management 46 *2.7 DNS Fit and Forecasting 49 3 Arbitrage-Free Nelson-Siegel 55 *3.1 A Two-Factor Warm-Up 58 *3.2 The Duffie-Kan Framework 62 *3.3 Making DNS Arbitrage-Free 64 *3.4 Workhorse Models 78 *3.5 AFNS Restrictions on A0(3) 83 *3.6 Estimation 86 *3.7 AFNS Fit and Forecasting 90 4 Extensions 96 *4.1 Variations on the Basic Theme 96 *4.2 Additional Yield Factors 105 *4.3 Stochastic Volatility 113 *4.4 Macroeconomic Fundamentals 117 5 Macro-Finance 126 *5.1 Macro-Finance Yield Curve Modeling 126 *5.2 Macro-Finance and AFNS 131 *5.3 Evolving Research Directions 144 6 Epilogue 149 *6.1 Is Imposition of No-Arbitrage Helpful? 151 *6.2 Is AFNS the Only Tractable A0(3) Model? 153 *6.3 Is AFNS Special? 155 Appendixes 159 Appendix A Two-Factor AFNS Calculations 161 * A.1 Risk-Neutral Probability 161 * A.2 Euler Equation 163 Appendix B Details of AFNS Restrictions 166 * B.1 Independent-Factor AFNS 168 * B.2 Correlated-Factor AFNS 171 Appendix C The AFGNS Yield-Adjustment Term 174 Bibliography 179 Index 197

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Book SynopsisIn the fall of 2008, fifteen of the world's leading economists - representing the broadest spectrum of economic opinion - gathered at New Hampshire's Squam Lake. Their goal: the mapping of a long-term plan for financial regulation reform. This title distills the wealth of insights from the collaboration that began at these meetings.Trade ReviewRobert J. Shiller, Co-Winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics Raghuram Rajan, Winner of the Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics 2013, The Center for Financial Studies "If you asked me to recommend one thing to read on reforming financial regulation, [The Squam Lake Report] would be it."--Clive Crook, The Atlantic "The Squam Lake Report [is] a slim volume that contains the best prescriptions of the brightest minds of economics about how to save the financial system."--Heidi N. Moore, CNNMoney.com "The Squam Lake Report is a slight volume of ten chapters and just 157 pages--practically anorexic by the standards of many tomes about the credit crunch--but it makes heavyweight claims. It is the product of 15 of the leading financial economists in the United States, who first met on a weekend retreat to New Hampshire's remote and scenic Squam Lake, and offers their prescriptions for regulatory reform to stave off future collapses."--New Statesman "Fifteen prominent academic US economists developed this concise set of recommendations for financial regulation reform in Fall 2008 in a desire to prevent a recurrence of the financial crisis that developed in 2007 and whose effects continue to the present. The introductory chapter provides an excellent summary of the cascade of financial catastrophes precipitated initially by losses on mortgage-backed securities... [A] useful volume for its historical overview and coverage of key issues."--Choice "The Squam Lake Report is an important book in a growing library of commentary on the worst financial crisis since the Depression. It delivers good and clearly written recommendations and reviews most of the key issues surrounding the crisis."--Mark S. Rzepczynski, Financial Analysts JournalTable of ContentsPreface vii Acknowledgments xi Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Chapter 2: A Systemic Regulator for Financial Markets 33 Chapter 3: A New Information Infrastructure for Financial Markets 44 Chapter 4: Regulation of Retirement Savings 53 Chapter 5: Reforming Capital Requirements 67 Chapter 6: Regulation of Executive Compensation in Financial Services 75 Chapter 7: An Expedited Mechanism to Recapitalize Distressed Financial Firms: Regulatory Hybrid Securities 86 Chapter 8: Improving Resolution Options for Systemically Important Financial Institutions 95 Chapter 9: Credit Default Swaps, Clearinghouses, and Exchanges 109 Chapter 10: Prime Brokers, Derivatives Dealers, and Runs 122 Chapter 11: Conclusions 135 List of Contributors 153 Index 157

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Book SynopsisDealer banks - that is, large banks that deal in securities and derivatives, such as J P Morgan and Goldman Sachs - are of a size and complexity that sharply distinguish them from typical commercial banks. This book examines how these banks collapse and how we can prevent the need to bail them out.Trade Review"[T]his volume will give readers a deeper understanding of how modern banking works."--Choice "There are precious few manuals on global finance. To be sure, there are enough leaden textbooks and scholarly tomes to crush many a library, but there are few nuts-and-bolts guides. Darrell Duffie has performed a great service by attempting to explain in simple terms why and how major investment banks (what he calls 'dealer banks') collapse... How Big Banks Fail is ... a valuable addition to public literature on the global financial crisis."--Joel Campbell, International Affairs "This is a clear and readable account of the mechanisms and incentives at play."--Saxon Brettell, Business Economist "I highly recommend the book. I believe the text should be standard reading for anybody involved with regulating and supervising financial institutions as it offers valuable insights into the plumbing of financial markets and the mechanisms that can cause bank failures. The discussed mechanisms are thought provoking and can provide researchers and regulators with valuable ideas for future research on the financial system as well as banking regulation."--Jan Wrampelmeyer, Financial Markets and Portfolio ManagementTable of ContentsList of Figures and Tables ix Preface xi Chapter One: Introduction 1 Chapter Two: What Is a Dealer Bank? 9 Chapter Three: Failure Mechanisms 23 Chapter Four: Recapitalizing a Weak Bank 43 Chapter Five: Improving Regulations and Market Infrastructure 53 Appendix: Central Clearing of Derivatives 63 Notes 71 Bibliography 79 Index 87

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Book SynopsisIn work, as in other areas of life, it is not always clear what standards we are being judged by or how our worth is being determined. Drawing on the notion that "perplexing situations" provide opportunities for innovative inquiry, this title argues that the dissonance of diverse principles can lead to discovery.Trade Review"The Sense of Dissonance is an important and refreshing contribution to both economic sociology and organizational sociology, introducing a wealth of new concepts, ideas, and lines of thinking."--Olav Velthuis, American Journal of Sociology "Stark's ideas about the value of play, ambiguity, and uncertainty are particularly provocative and far-reaching."--Brooke Harrington, Contexts "[S]mart and ambitious... [This book] constitutes an important contribution to the most cutting-edge debates of contemporary economic sociology and organization theory."--Pierre Francois, European Economic Sociology Newsletter "Stark gave us a book both theoretically very deep, pleasant to read, and rich in empirical details."--Filippo Barbera, Sociologica "The Sense of Dissonance is a great book, and I recommend it warmly... Like most great achievements, Stark's book opens up more questions than it answers and leaves its readers with important puzzles."--Petter Holm, Administrative Science QuarterlyTable of ContentsPreface xi Chapter 1: Heterarchy: The Organization of Dissonance 1 Searching Questions 1 For a Sociology of Worth 6 Entrepreneurship at the Overlap 13 Heterarchy 19 A Metaphor for Organization in the Twenty-first Century 27 Worth in Contentious Situations 31 Chapter 2: Work, Worth, and Justice in a Socialist Factory 35 The Partnership as Proof 36 Distributive Justice inside the Partnership 52 Maneuvering across Economies 64 Epilogue 75 Chapter 3: Creative Friction in a New-Media Start-Up 81 An Ecology of Value 84 The Firm and the Project Form 91 Distributing Intelligence 97 Organizing Dissonance 102 Discursive Pragmatism and Bountiful Friction 108 Epilogue 111 Chapter 4: The Cognitive Ecology of an Arbitrage Trading Room 118 Studying Quantitative Finance 120 Arbitrage, or Quantitative Finance in the Search for Qualities 126 The Trading Room as a Space for Associations 130 The Trading Room as an Ecology 135 The Trading Room as a Laboratory 142 The Pursuit of New Properties 151 Epilogue 153 Chapter 5: From Field Research to the Field of Research 163 From Classification to Search 166 From Diversity of Organizations to the Organization of Diversity 175 From Unreflective Taken-for-Granteds to Reflexive Cognition 183 From Shared Understandings to Coordination through Misunderstanding 190 From Single Ethnographies to the Broader Sites of Situations 195 Reprise 204 Acknowledgments 213 Bibliography 217 Index 239

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Book SynopsisThroughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing - and recovering - their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different". This book covers topics ranging from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe.Trade ReviewWinner of the 2011 Gold Medal Arthur Ross Book Award, Council on Foreign Relations Winner of the 2010 Paul A. Samuelson Award, TIAA-CREF One of USA Today's "Year's Best Business Books To Make Sense of Financial Crisis" Listed on Bloomberg.com by James Pressley as one of "our favorite financial-crisis books this year" Shortlisted for the 2010 Spear's Book of the Year Award in Financial History Finalist for the 2011 Estoril Global Issues Distinguished Book Prize Runner-Up for the Book of the Year, The Atlantic Finalist for the 2009 Business Book Award ("Best of the Rest") in Current Interest, 800-CEO-READ One of Library Journal Best Business Books - Economics/U.S. Economy category "Mr. Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard University, accurately predicted the eurozone debt crisis and for years has been telling anyone who would listen that China posed the next big threat to the global economy. He is starting to look right, again... 'China is the classic "This time is different" story,' Mr. Rogoff said."--Andrew Ross Sorkin, New York Times "[E]ssential reading ... both for its originality and for the sobering patterns of financial behaviour it reveals."--Economist "Reinhart and Rogoff have compiled an impressive database, which covers eight centuries of government debt defaults from around the world. They have also collected statistics on inflation rates from every country where information is available and on banking crises and international capital flows over the past couple of centuries. This lengthy historical study gives what they call a 'panoramic view' of the unending cycle of boom and bust, showing how claims that 'this time is different' are invariably proven wrong... This Time Is Different doesn't simply explain what went wrong in our most recent crisis. This book also provides a roadmap of how things are likely to pan out in the years to come... This Time Is Different is an important addition to the literature of financial history."--Edward Chancellor, Wall Street Journal "Everyone working on economic policy should own This Time is Different and open it for a bracing blast of sobriety when things seem to be going well."--Greg Ip, Washington Post "[T]he most comprehensive study of financial crises and their aftermath."--Eduardo Porter, New York Times "The authors use copious amounts of data ... to make the compelling case that any well-informed person should have seen the Great Recession coming. The essence of their book is that while financial crises come in different varieties, they are not mysteriously born of undersea earthquakes, but frequently occurring events that can be spotted and even controlled if politicians and regulators know what to look for."--Devin Leonard, New York Times "This Time is Different takes a Sergeant Friday, just-the-facts-ma'am approach: before we start theorizing, let's take a hard look at what history tells us. One side benefit of this approach is that the current book manages to be both extremely useful to professional economists and accessible to the intelligent lay reader. The Reinhart-Rogoff approach has already paid off handsomely in making sense of current events."--Robin Wells and Paul Krugman, New York Review of Books "[A] terrific book."--Andrew Ross Sorkin, New York Times "Among policy experts and economists, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly ... has become so influential that when somebody says, 'We live in a Reinhart-Rogoff world,' everybody else in the room nods sagely."--Justin Lahart, Wall Street Journal "Professor Rogoff and his longtime collaborator Carmen Reinhart ... know more about the history of financial crises than anyone alive. The pair have just published their broad survey of financial crises, This Time is Different. In an era when most 'analysts' rely on maybe 30 or 40 years' worth of financial history--and then only that of the U.S.--the authors' knowledge of financial crises and government bond defaults going back to the Spanish empire and before offers a richer perspective."--Brett Arends, Wall Street Journal "[O]ne of the most important economic books of 2009."--Jon Hilsenrath, Wall Street Journal "[T]he definitive book on financial crises."--Steven Pearlstein, Washington Post "Two top-notch economists provide a clear and interesting explanation of why economic crises keep occurring. Broadly speaking, downturns such as the one we are recovering from are historically associated with characteristics that should sound quite familiar to today's investors."--David Schwartz, Financial Times "[A] masterpiece."--Martin Wolf, Financial Times "The four most dangerous words in finance are 'this time is different.' Thanks to this masterpiece by Carmen Reinhart at the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard, no one can doubt this again... The authors have put an immense amount of work into collecting the data financial institutions needed if they were to have any chance of making quantitative risk management work."--Martin Wolf, Financial Times "Here's a deep and rewarding assignment for all of you, young and old, poor and rich, bullish and bearish. Retire to a quiet spot with a copy of This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff."--Bob Lenzner, Forbes.com "[A] fine new history of financial debacles."--Daniel Gross, Newsweek "Wouldn't it be nice to have $1,000 for every time a pundit proclaims an era of endless prosperity, consigning booms and busts to the dumpster of history? The next time you hear that canard (and you will) pour yourself a single malt and dip into Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff's landmark study, This Time Is Different. Wherever you open the book, you'll find proof that debt-fueled expansions have ended in financial ruin for hundreds of years... The result is a visual history laid out in beguilingly simple graphs and tables, making the book both definitive--a must read for professors and investors--and accessible to a wider audience."--James Pressley, Bloomberg News "Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have delivered a powerful and eloquent statement... Reinhart and Rogoff have done an extraordinary job in putting together statistics on government debt--a task that economic historians should have done long ago but shied away from because of the difficulties of defining 'government', which is often complex and multi-layered."--Harold James, The American Interest "Unlike prior narrative accounts of market panics from such finance writers as Charles Kindleberger and Edward Chancellor, Reinhart and Rogoff give us a data-driven study that is global in sweep but also a model of clarity. The authors package their notably nonhysterical analysis of the latest crisis in a large, self-contained section of the book inviting harried readers to skip right ahead to it."--Daniel Akst, CNNMoney.com "A tour de force of quantitative analysis covering financial crises affecting 66 countries over the past 800 years, the book identifies pre-crisis patterns that recur with eerie consistency. This Time is Different is a must-read for anyone on the lookout for canaries in coal mines."--Barron's "This is certainly one of the must-read books of the year."--Arnold Kling, Econlog.com "Rogoff and Reinhart ... provide an eye-opening look at the cycles of boom and bust and how governments deal with those cycles."--Arkansas Business "[A] valuable new book."--Idaho Statesman "Having studied mountains of economic data during the past eight centuries, the authors insightfully point out the highly repetitive nature of financial crises resulted from a dangerous mix of hubris, euphoria and amnesia."--Shanghai Daily "This Time is Different ... is an unusually powerful bull detector designed to protect investors and taxpayers alike--eventually, at least, and provided the spirit is willing... The book's most memorable passages--what the authors call its 'core life'--are to be found not in colorful stories about long-ago personalities, but rather in its various tables and figures. They take some time to comprehend, but any responsible citizen can and ought to consider they evidence they present. It is overwhelming."--David Warsh, Harvard Magazine "Financial folly, economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff show in this groundbreaking book, knows no boundaries and has no expiration date... For a book built around numbers, This Time is Different makes for surprisingly good reading. The authors are well aware that human nature is at the heart of the disasters they document, and they enliven the text with brief and amusing accounts of charlatans and cheats."--Paul Wiseman, USA Today "The credit crunch of 2007 became the financial crash of 2008 and the recession of 2009. But there has been much debate about the scale of this crisis, and how it ranks against previous events. Reinhart and Rogoff have produced the most detailed study yet of financial crises, going back as far as 12th-century China... [This Time is Different] will be a vital source of reference in debates on the causes and consequences of financial crises. By cataloguing so thoroughly every known instance of financial crisis, it performs a significant service and opens up new lines of inquiry."--Andrew Gamble, New Statesman "[T]his is the kind of economics we desperately need, as it is relevant, fact-based and replete with wisdom from the past--and lessons for the future."--Irish Times "For those who want to relearn the forgotten lessons of the past, This Time is Different, by economics professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, is an excellent place to start... These are lessons worth learning."--Liaquat Ahamed, National Interest "This book's distinctive strength is that it's built around a massive international database going back as far as twelfth-century China and medieval Europe."--Harvard Business Review "[S]uperb."--Neil Reynolds, Globe & Mail "Reinhart and Rogoff have compiled an encyclopedic analysis of the history of financial crises over the last 750 years. But their volume is not merely of historical interest. Rather, it has great relevance for anyone interested in understanding how the current financial crisis is likely to unfold."--Choice "Reinhart and Rogoff present a sobering reminder that financial crises are a serial phenomenon--caused in no small part by the seductive 'this-time-is-different syndrome,' the prevalent belief that to us, here and now, old economic laws of motion no longer apply. Their ambitious quantitative history of financial crises draws out sweeping parallels between financial crises, across times and continents; and between inflating away domestic debt, currency debasements, and defaults on external debt."--Finance & Development "[I]nstant classic tome on debt crises."--Alen Mattich, Dow Jones Newswires "[A]wesome."--William Easterly, AidWatch "One book in particular has been circulating among economists and market insiders. This Time is Different analyzes vast amounts of historical data on financial debacles, including state failures around the world, bank crises, currency woes and high inflation. The title satirizes those who fail to learn from past blunders and repeat them while insisting, 'This time is different.'"--Hideo Tsuchiya, Nikkei Weekly "Reinhart and Rogoff have produced a splendid book detailing the massive self-destructive behavior that all states have been undergoing over the past several centuries... Reading this excellent book on the paths of previous economic cycles could help avoid some of the worst results of our self-destructive financial acts."--Lloyd Demause, Journal of Psychohistory "Anyone looking for a more academic take on where this meltdown places in the history of financial folly should turn to This Time is Different, a magisterial work on the causes and consequences of crises stretching back 800 years."--Matthew Valencia, Economist.com "I couldn't put it down until I had gone all the way through it, and then I immediately ordered it as an assigned text for my Spring 2010 MBA course, 'The Development of Financial Institutions and Markets.' My students are finding it useful and engaging."--Richard Sylla, EH.Net "Easily the most useful, and arguably the best, is this splendid piece of research and analysis on, as the subtitle says, 800 years' worth of booms and busts."--Bill Emmott, Survival "This Time Is Different changes the way we can study financial crises. It is the start of a truly comprehensive approach to the subject... It adds new ideas that will be useful for gauging the risk of future crises and perhaps even reducing their impact, if investors and policymakers are willing to learn from other people's mistakes, not just their own mistakes."--Kurt Schuler, CATO Journal "[T]he book will be essential reading for anyone who wants to put the recent crisis into some historical perspective--and get some ideas on how to prevent, or at least delay, the next one."--David Orrell, Foresight "It's the only book I have seen that provides, with great detail and over 800 years, clearly defined, analytical, data-driven evidence of what the impact of a post-financial crisis period is and hence what we can anticipate... I've never seen anything that comes close in terms of being comprehensive. It's a tour de force."--Dambisa Moyo, The Browser "[T]his Time is Different [is a] landmark work on financial crises."--Megan McArdle, TheAtlantic.com "Readable, shocking, and vital, this is a book that every investor who has been tempted by a hefty interest rate in a faraway land should study."--Andrew Allentuck, National Post "[This Time is Different] is perhaps the finest study of financial crises ever published."--Ezra Klein, Washington Post "[A] modern classic... In their landmark study of hundreds of financial crises in 66 countries over 800 years, Reinhart and Rogoff find oft-repeated patterns that ought to alert economists when trouble is on the way. One thing stops them waking up in time: their perpetual belief that 'this time is different.'"--Ross Gittins, Sydney Morning Herald "[S]eminal."--Rana Faroohar and Bill Saporito, Time "[T]he pre-eminent history of financial crises."--Adam Davidson, New York Times Magazine "The book by Reinhart and Rogoff is one for the ages, and it will be remembered as a landmark event, not least given the coincidence of its publication of such a deep and broad historical analysis of economic crises with the very moment when the world was entering a massive 'hundred year flood' type of calamity. The authors' empirical work is encyclopedic and much of the data are highly original and the result of intense effort. The necessary theoretical framing is provided, but in terms that all target readers should be able to absorb. The overall view is panoramic and the message carried is an important one for all to hear--policymakers, commentators, and researchers. Crises are still with us, they are very painful indeed, and perhaps it will always be so. It is up to us to figure out why and how crises happen, and to figure out what, if anything, can and should be done to mitigate their devastating effects in future. This book is therefore, above all, a call to action."--Journal of Economic Literature "[E]conomists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff take a much-needed longer view, placing the current crisis, with a focus on the U.S. housing bubble, into historical perspective."--Anil Hira, Perspectives on Politics "Reinhart and Rogoff's book belongs to the tradition of studies that appear in the middle of a crisis but it manages to keep its spine above water because of its historical depth and systematic rigour."--Sakis Gekas, Dublin Review of BooksTable of ContentsLIST OF TABLES xiii LIST OF FIGURES xvii LIST OF BOXES xxiii PREFACE xxv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xxxvii PREAMBLE: SOME INITIAL INTUITIONS ON FINANCIAL FRAGILITY AND THE FICKLE NATURE OF CONFIDENCE xxxix PART I: Financial Crises: An Operational Primer 1 Chapter 1: Varieties of Crises and Their Dates 3 Crises Defined by Quantitative Thresholds: Inflation, Currency Crashes, and Debasement 4 Crises Defined by Events: Banking Crises and External and Domestic Default 8 Other Key Concepts 14 Chapter 2: Debt Intolerance: The Genesis of Serial Default 21 Debt Thresholds 21 Measuring Vulnerability 25 Clubs and Regions 27 Reflections on Debt Intolerance 29 Chapter 3: A Global Database on Financial Crises with a Long-Term View 34 Prices, Exchange Rates, Currency Debasement, and Real GDP 35 Government Finances and National Accounts 39 Public Debt and Its Composition 40 Global Variables 43 Country Coverage 43 PART II: Sovereign External Debt Crises 49 Chapter 4: A Digression on the Theoretical Underpinnings of Debt Crises 51 Sovereign Lending 54 Illiquidity versus Insolvency 59 Partial Default and Rescheduling 61 Odious Debt 63 Domestic Public Debt 64 Conclusions 67 Chapter 5: Cycles of Sovereign Default on External Debt 68 Recurring Patterns 68 Default and Banking Crises 73 Default and Inflation 75 Global Factors and Cycles of Global External Default 77 The Duration of Default Episodes 81 Chapter 6: External Default through History 86 The Early History of Serial Default: Emerging Europe, 1300-1799 86 Capital Inflows and Default: An "Old World" Story 89 External Sovereign Default after 1800: A Global Picture 89 PART III: The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt and Default 101 Chapter 7: The Stylized Facts of Domestic Debt and Default 103 Domestic and External Debt 103 Maturity, Rates of Return, and Currency Composition 105 Episodes of Domestic Default 110 Some Caveats Regarding Domestic Debt 111 Chapter 8: Domestic Debt: The Missing Link Explaining External Default and High Inflation 119 Understanding the Debt Intolerance Puzzle 119 Domestic Debt on the Eve and in the Aftermath of External Default 123 The Literature on Inflation and the "Inflation Tax" 124 Defining the Tax Base: Domestic Debt or the Monetary Base? 125 The "Temptation to Inflate" Revisited 127 Chapter 9: Domestic and External Default: Which Is Worse? Who Is Senior? 128 Real GDP in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults 129 Inflation in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults 129 The Incidence of Default on Debts Owed to External and Domestic Creditors 133 Summary and Discussion of Selected Issues 136 PART IV: Banking Crises, Inflation, and Currency Crashes 139 Chapter 10: Banking Crises 141 A Preamble on the Theory of Banking Crises 143 Banking Crises: An Equal-Opportunity Menace 147 Banking Crises, Capital Mobility, and Financial Liberalization 155 Capital Flow Bonanzas, Credit Cycles, and Asset Prices 157 Overcapacity Bubbles in the Financial Industry? 162 The Fiscal Legacy of Financial Crises Revisited 162 Living with the Wreckage: Some Observations 171 Chapter 11: Default through Debasement: An "Old World Favorite" 174 Chapter 12: Inflation and Modern Currency Crashes 180 An Early History of Inflation Crises 181 Modern Inflation Crises: Regional Comparisons 182 Currency Crashes 189 The Aftermath of High Inflation and Currency Collapses 191 Undoing Domestic Dollarization 193 PART V: The U.S. Subprime Meltdown and the Second Great Contraction 199 Chapter 13: The U.S. Subprime Crisis: An International and Historical Comparison 203 A Global Historical View of the Subprime Crisis and Its Aftermath 204 The This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome and the Run-up to the Subprime Crisis 208 Risks Posed by Sustained U.S. Borrowing from the Rest of the World: The Debate before the Crisis 208 The Episodes of Postwar Bank-Centered Financial Crisis 215 A Comparison of the Subprime Crisis with Past Crises in Advanced Economies 216 Summary 221 Chapter 14: The Aftermath of Financial Crises 223 Historical Episodes Revisited 225 The Downturn after a Crisis: Depth and Duration 226 The Fiscal Legacy of Crises 231 Sovereign Risk 232 Comparisons with Experiences from the First Great Contraction in the 1930s 233 Concluding Remarks 238 Chapter 15: The International Dimensions of the Subprime Crisis: The Results of Contagion or Common Fundamentals? 240 Concepts of Contagion 241 Selected Earlier Episodes 241 Common Fundamentals and the Second Great Contraction 242 Are More Spillovers Under Way? 246 Chapter 16: Composite Measures of Financial Turmoil 248 Developing a Composite Index of Crises: The BCDI Index 249 Defining a Global Financial Crisis 260 The Sequencing of Crises: A Prototype 270 Summary 273 PART VI: What Have We Learned? 275 Chapter 17: Reflections on Early Warnings, Graduation, Policy Responses, and the Foibles of Human Nature 277 On Early Warnings of Crises 278 The Role of International Institutions 281 Graduation 283 Some Observations on Policy Responses 287 The Latest Version of the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome 290 DATA APPENDIXES 293 A.1. Macroeconomic Time Series 295 A.2. Public Debt 327 A.3. Dates of Banking Crises 344 A.4. Historical Summaries of Banking Crises 348 NOTES 393 REFERENCES 409 NAME INDEX 435 SUBJECT INDEX 443

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Book SynopsisHigh-frequency trading is an algorithm-based computerized trading practice that allows firms to trade stocks in milliseconds. This book introduces readers to these emerging methods and tools of analysis.Trade Review"The authors are well established and are at the forefront of this specialised research area. Together they bring a wealth of knowledge to this book. . . . This text is a great resource for PhD-level courses and a great reference for researchers in the area of high-frequency financial econometrics. It is a fine scholarly book that comprehensively brings readers up to date with very recent developments in the high-frequency financial econometrics literature."---Ole Worapree Maneesoonthorn, Economic RecordTable of Contents*Frontmatter, pg. i*Contents, pg. vii*Preface, pg. xvii*Notation, pg. xxiii*Chapter 1. From Diffusions to Semimartingales, pg. 3*Chapter 2. Data Considerations, pg. 57*Introduction, pg. 81*Chapter 3. Introduction to Asymptotic Theory: Volatility Estimation for a Continuous Process, pg. 83*Chapter 4. With Jumps: An Introduction to Power Variations, pg. 109*Chapter 5. High-Frequency Observations: Identifiability and Asymptotic Efficiency, pg. 131*Introduction, pg. 167*Chapter 6. Estimating Integrated Volatility: The Base Case with No Noise and Equidistant Observations, pg. 169*Chapter 7. Volatility and Microstructure Noise, pg. 209*Chapter 8. Estimating Spot Volatility, pg. 259*Chapter 9. Volatility and Irregularly Spaced Observations, pg. 299*Introduction, pg. 327*Chapter 10. Testing for Jumps, pg. 329*Chapter 11. Finer Analysis of Jumps: The Degree of Jump Activity, pg. 393*Chapter 12. Finite or Infinite Activity for Jumps?, pg. 429*Chapter 13. Is Brownian Motion Really Necessary?, pg. 441*Chapter 14. Co-jumps, pg. 453*Appendix A. Asymptotic Results for Power Variations, pg. 477*Appendix B. Miscellaneous Proofs, pg. 507*Bibliography, pg. 633*Index, pg. 657

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Book SynopsisThe global financial crisis triggered severe shocks for developing countries, whose embrace of greater commercial and financial openness has increased their exposure to external shocks, both real and financial. This new edition of Development Macroeconomics has been fully revised to address the more open and less stable environment in which developTrade ReviewPraise for the previous edition: "Since the second edition of this text was published in 1999, both the field of development economics and developing economies themselves have undergone substantial change. Agenor and Montiel have added considerable new material to this third edition, most notably dealing with issues that have risen to prominence in the last decade... This comprehensive treatment of development from a macroeconomic perspective is an indispensable reference for graduate students and faculty."--Choice Praise for the previous edition: "Since its first edition, the book has remained the definitive text on the macroeconomics of developing countries. In this third edition, the authors try to cover the latest advances in this rapidly changing field, making the book the most comprehensive source on the subject."--Abstracts of Public Administration, Development, and EnvironmentTable of Contents*Frontmatter, pg. i*Contents, pg. vii*Preface to the Fourth Edition, pg. xix*Introduction and Overview, pg. 1*Chapter 1. Economic Structure and Aggregate Accounts, pg. 12*Chapter 2. Behavioral Functions, pg. 52*Chapter 3. The Government Budget and Fiscal Management, pg. 78*Chapter 4. Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy, pg. 109*Chapter 5. Financial Markets and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism, pg. 144*Chapter 6. A Framework for Monetary Policy Analysis, pg. 182*Chapter 7. Inflation Targeting, Macroeconomic Stability, and Financial Stability, pg. 224*Chapter 8. Choosing an Exchange-Rate Regime I: Credibility, Flexibility, and Welfare, pg. 262*Chapter 9. Choosing an Exchange-Rate Regime II: The Role of Shocks, Contractionary Effects, and Moral Hazard, pg. 295*Chapter 10. Inflation and Short-Run Dynamics, pg. 331*Chapter 11. Analytical Issues in Disinflation Programs, pg. 381*Chapter 12. Dynamic Stochastic Equilibrium Models with Financial Frictions, pg. 441*Chapter 13. Financial Integration and Capital Flows, pg. 476*Chapter 14. Exchange-Rate Crises and Sudden Stops, pg. 514*Chapter 15. Banking Crises and Twin Crises, pg. 550*Chapter 16. Sovereign Debt Crises, pg. 572*Chapter 17. Macroeconomic Policies and Growth, pg. 602*Chapter 18. Trade Liberalization, Financial-Sector Reforms, and Sequencing, pg. 640*Chapter 19. The Political Economy of Adjustment, pg. 675*Epilogue, pg. 697*References, pg. 701*Index of Names, pg. 741*Index of Subjects, pg. 751

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Book SynopsisEfficiently Inefficient describes the key trading strategies used by hedge funds and demystifies the secret world of active investing. Leading financial economist Lasse Heje Pedersen combines the latest research with real-world examples and interviews with top hedge fund managers to show how certain trading strategies make money--and why they sometTrade Review"Pedersen's book can be recommended to a wide spectrum of readers interested in financial markets in general and hedge funds in particular."--Jacek Klich, Central Banking "Encyclopedic in its cataloguing of active management strategies and authoritative in its analysis of the practical issues of their implementation. Pedersen grounds his exposition in landmark scholarly articles and, where quantitative analysis is required to elucidate a concept, conveys his message without resorting to arcane mathematics."--Martin S. Fridson, Financial Analysts Journal "Despite the author's high level of understanding he manages to deliver a high quality but also easily understandable guide to the strategies."--Mats Larsson, Investing by the BooksTable of ContentsThe Main Themes in Three Simple Tables vii Preface xi Who Should Read the Book? xiv Acknowledgments xv About the Author xvii Introduction 1 i. Efficiently Inefficient Markets 3 ii. Global Trading Strategies: Overview of the Book 7 iii. Investment Styles and Factor Investing 14 Part I Active Investment 17 Chapter 1 Understanding Hedge Funds and Other Smart Money 19 Chapter 2 Evaluating Trading Strategies: Performance Measures 27 Chapter 3 Finding and Backtesting Strategies: Profiting in Efficiently Inefficient Markets 39 Chapter 4 Portfolio Construction and Risk Management 54 Chapter 5 Trading and Financing a Strategy: Market and Funding Liquidity 63 Part II Equity Strategies 85 Chapter 6 Introduction to Equity Valuation and Investing 87 Chapter 7 Discretionary Equity Investing 95 Interview with Lee S. Ainslie III of Maverick Capital 108 Chapter 8 Dedicated Short Bias 115 Interview with James Chanos of Kynikos Associates 127 Chapter 9 Quantitative Equity Investing 133 Interview with Cliff Asness of AQR Capital Management 158 Part III Asset Allocation and Macro Strategies 165 Chapter 10 Introduction to Asset Allocation: The Returns to the Major Asset Classes 167 Chapter 11 Global Macro Investing 184 Interview with George Soros of Soros Fund Management 204 Chapter 12 Managed Futures: Trend-Following Investing 208 Interview with David Harding of Winton Capital Management 225 Part IV Arbitrage Strategies 231 Chapter 13 Introduction to Arbitrage Pricing and Trading 233 Chapter 14 Fixed-Income Arbitrage 241 Interview with Nobel Laureate Myron Scholes 262 Chapter 15 Convertible Bond Arbitrage 269 Interview with Ken Griffin of Citadel 286 Chapter 16 Event-Driven Investments 291 Interview with John A. Paulson of Paulson & Co. 313 References 323 Index 331

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"Forcefully hammers out its central message with illustrative examples and provides invaluable guidance to practitioners."---Emre Yoldas, Journal of Economic Literature"The material is well structured in nine chapters and provides a good reference point to start into the topic."---Sylvia Kaufmann, Journal of Economics and StatisticsTable of ContentsSeries Editors' Introduction ix Preface xi 1 Overview 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Describing the Events 2 1.3 Using the Event Indicators ("States") 10 1.4 Prediction of Recurrent Events 12 1.5 Conclusion 13 2 Methods for Describing Oscillations, Fluctuations, and Cycles in Univariate Series 15 2.1 Introduction 15 2.2 Types of Movements in Real and Financial Series 16 2.3 Prescribed Rules for Dating Business Cycles 26 2.4 Prescribed Rules for Dating Other Types of Real Cycles 38 2.5 Prescribed Rules for Dating Financial Cycles 40 2.6 Relations between Cycles and Oscillations 41 2.7 The Nature of St and Its Modeling 45 2.8 Conclusion 50 3 Constructing Reference Cycles with Multivariate Information 51 3.1 Introduction 51 3.2 Determining the Reference Cycle via Phases 52 3.3 Combining Specific Cycle Turning Points 54 3.4 Finding Turning Points by Series Aggregation 60 3.5 Conclusion 61 4 Model-Based Rules for Describing Recurrent Events 62 4.1 Introduction 62 4.2 Dating Cycles with Univariate Series 63 4.3 Model-Based Rules for Dating Events with Multivariate Series 82 4.4 Conclusion 85 5 Measuring Recurrent Event Features in Univariate Data 86 5.1 Introduction 86 5.2 The Fraction of Time Spent in Expansions 87 5.3 Representing the Features of Phases 89 5.4 Amplitudes and Durations of Phases 90 5.5 The Shapes of Phases 94 5.6 The Diversity of Phases 99 5.7 Plucking Effects and Recovery Times 100 5.8 Duration Dependence in Phases 101 5.9 Conclusion 106 6 Measuring Synchronization of Recurrent Events in Multivariate Data 107 6.1 Introduction 107 6.2 Moment-Based Measures 108 6.3 Other Approaches to Measuring Synchronization 115 6.4 Synchronization and Model-Based Rules 116 6.5 Application to Synchronization of Industrial Production Cycles 116 6.6 Multivariate Synchronization 118 6.7 Comovement of Cycles 119 6.8 Conclusion 121 7 Accounting for Observed Cycle Features with a Range of Statistical Models 122 7.1 Introduction 122 7.2 U.S. Cycles as a Benchmark 123 7.3 The Business Cycle in a Range of Countries 129 7.4 Can U.S. Business Cycles Be Generated by Linear Models? 129 7.5 What Do Non-Linear Models Add? 132 7.6 Two Markov Switching Models 137 7.7 Using the Binary Indicators in Multivariate Systems 138 7.8 Conclusion 142 8 Using the Recurrent Event Binary States to Examine Economic Modeling Issues 143 8.1 Introduction 143 8.2 Estimating Univariate Models with Constructed Binary Data 145 8.3 What Do Variance Decompositions Tell Us About the Cycle? 150 8.4 The Role of Structural Shocks in Determining Cycle Features 152 8.5 Financial Effects and the Business Cycle 154 8.6 Conclusion 161 9 Predicting Turning Points and Recessions 163 9.1 Introduction 163 9.2 Bounding the Probability of the Occurrence of a Peak 166 9.3 Predicting Recessions with a Range of Variables 168 9.4 Changing the Event Defining Recessions and Turning Points 182 9.5 Conclusion 184 References 187 Index 205

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Book SynopsisThe financial crisis that began in 2007 in the United States swept the world, producing substantial bank failures and forcing unprecedented state aid for the crippled global financial system. Bringing together three leading financial economists to provide an international perspective, Balancing the Banks draws critical lessons from the causes of thTrade ReviewJean Tirole, Winner of the 2014 Nobel Prize in Economics "This compact but powerful book by three internationally recognized European economists is well worth reading. The authors offer a thoughtful review of the current global financial crisis and a number of considered recommendations for ameliorating the next and inevitable one."--Choice "Balancing the Banks, by three French economists, focuses on what went wrong with financial regulation and how it can be strengthened. It offers an excellent appreciation of the intrinsic dilemmas involved in regulating financial institutions, along with an explanation of why regulation is necessary, and addresses, among other topics, how to deal with distressed banks. The book provides a useful non-American view of the financial system, with lessons from practices in European countries."--Foreign AffairsTable of ContentsAcknowledgments vii Chapter 1: Introduction by Mathias Dewatripont, Jean-Charles Rochet, and Jean Tirole 1 Regulation in a Historical Perspective 1 To Regulate or Not to Regulate? 3 The Challenges Facing Prudential Regulation 6 Building an Adaptive Regulatory System in a Global World 7 Keeping a Balance 8 Chapter 2: Lessons from the Crisis by Jean Tirole 10 Part I: What Happened? 11 Part II: How Should the Financial System Be Reformed? 47 Chapter 3: The Future of Banking Regulation by Jean-Charles Rochet 78 The Basel Accords 78 The Breakdown of the Basel Prudential Regime 86 The Necessary Reforms 100 Chapter 4: The Treatment of Distressed Banks by Mathias Dewatripont and Jean-Charles Rochet 107 Reforming Prudential Policy for Distressed Banks 110 Macroeconomic and Systemic Considerations 118 International Cooperation 122 References 131 Index 137

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"Richard Dale ... picks a scholarly but readable path through the events that led to the collapse of shares in the infamous South Sea Company in 1720. Only the purblind could fail to draw some important parallels between the events of that year and the bubbles of the more recent past, not least the dot.com mania of five years ago."--Jonathan Davis, The IndependentTable of ContentsIntroduction 1 Chapter One: Coffee Houses, The Press and Misinformation 7 Chapter Two: Exchange Alley and the Evolution of London's Securities Market 22 Chapter Three: Origins of the South Sea Company 40 Chapter Four: John Law and the Mississippi Bubble 56 Chapter Five: The South Sea Scheme 73 Chapter Six: The Bubble 96 Chapter Seven: The Crash 125 Chapter Eight: Crisis Resolution 140 Chapter Nine: Lessons from the South Sea Bubble 155 Appendix I: Hutcheson's South Sea Parable 171 Appendix II: Technical Note on Stock and Subscription Price Data 172 Chapter Ten: Conclusion 178 Glossary 185 Bibliography 187 Index 195

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"This original work marks a significant contribution to endogenous growth theory for several reasons. Not only does it provide a unified framework within which much of the recent literature can be compared and contrasted, but it extends some of the existing models in interesting and worthwhile ways. Further, it offers a nice balance of theoretical analysis and empirical valuation of the models treated, something still uncommon in economics. The book is a very pleasant read."—Carl Chiarella, University of Technology, Sydney, author of Keynesian Monetary Growth Dynamics in Open Economics"This well-written book is a useful and worthwhile contribution to the growth literature. Growth theorists will be introduced to sophisticated techniques of estimation, and more econometrically oriented readers will be introduced to the major controversies involved in the analysis of growth and its causes and limitations."—James B. Ramsey, New York University, author of Economic Forecasting: Models or Markets?Table of Contents*Frontmatter, pg. i*Contents, pg. vii*Figures, pg. ix*Tables, pg. xi*Preface, pg. xiii*CHAPTER 1. Economic Growth in Historical Perspective, pg. 1*CHAPTER 2. Growth Models and Time Series Evidence, pg. 15*CHAPTER 3. Externalities of Investment and Economic Growth, pg. 24*CHAPTER 4. Education and Economic Growth, pg. 52*CHAPTER 5. Knowledge Accumulation and Economic Growth, pg. 81*CHAPTER 6. Endogenous Growth with Public Infrastructure, pg. 100*CHAPTER 7. Economic Growth and Income Inequality, pg. 130*CHAPTER 8. Conclusions, pg. 159*Technical Appendix, pg. 165*Data Sources, pg. 173*Bibliography, pg. 175*Index, pg. 185

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"The book is worth reading from cover to cover. It is thoughtful, well written, lucidly surveys some well-known material, and brings useful insights using some of the tools of industrial organisation economics."---Geoffrey Wood, Central Banking Journal"Competition and Stability in Banking can be said to represent the best of available knowledge. . . . An impressive work of one of the leading economists in the field. It is first of all a (rather: the) new textbook on a Master or PhD level. Yet, it should also be mandatory reading to all economists (and lawyers) working in official or government agencies related to either banking regulation and supervision or competition."---Urs Birchler, Journal of Economics and StatisticsTable of ContentsList of Figures and Tables xi Preface xiii Abbreviations xvii Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Chapter 2 Trends in Banking 7 2.1 The Expansion of the Financial Sector, Economic Growth, Financial Innovation, and Systemic Risk 10 2.1.1 Financial Sector Growth and Economic Growth 10 2.1.2 Financial Innovation and Systemic Risk 12 2.2 Business Models and the Challenge to Traditional Banking 18 2.2.1 Business Models and New Competitors 18 2.2.2 The Evolution of Competition 21 2.3 Consolidation and the Evolution of Concentration 27 Chapter 3 Fragility in Banking and the Role of Regulation 37 3.1 The Uniqueness of Banks and Fragility 37 3.1.1 The Roots of Fragility 38 3.1.2 Contagion and Systemic Risk 40 3.1.3 Social Cost of Failure 43 3.2 Shadow Banking and the 2007-2009 Crisis 44 3.3 Regulation and Financial Stability Facilities 47 3.3.1 Regulatory Aims and Tools 47 3.3.2 Prudential Regulation and the Safety Net 48 3.3.3 Bailout Distortions 50 3.3.4 Resolution 51 3.4 The 2007-2009 Crisis, Regulatory Failure, and Regulatory Reform 53 3.4.1 The 2007-2009 Crisis and Regulatory Failure 53 3.4.2 Macroprudential Regulation 56 3.4.3 Regulatory Reform 57 3.5 Regulation in Emerging/Developing Economies 64 Chapter 4 The Analysis of Competition in Banking: Theory and Empirics 70 4.1 Theoretical Models 72 4.1.1 Pricing 72 4.1.2 Product Differentiation 73 4.1.3 Frictions: Switching Costs and Asymmetric Information 74 4.1.4 Network Externalities and Two-Sided Markets 76 4.1.5 Market Structure, Entry, and New Competitors 79 4.1.6 Mergers 83 4.2 Empirical Studies 85 4.2.1 The SCP Paradigm 85 4.2.2 The New Empirical IO 88 4.2.3 The Impact of Deregulation 91 4.2.4 Asymmetric Information and Relationship Banking 93 4.2.5 Mergers 94 4.3 Behavioral Industrial Organization and Banking 97 4.3.1 Behavioral Biases and Their Impact on Consumer Behavior 98 4.3.2 Biases in Financial Markets 100 Chapter 5 Competition, Regulation, and Stability in Banking: Theory and Evidence 106 5.1 Competition and Stability: The Theory 106 5.1.1 Competition and Runs 106 5.1.2 Competition and Risk Taking 109 5.2 Competition and Stability: The Evidence 115 5.2.1 Competition and Systemic Risk 115 5.2.2 Liberalization, Risk Taking, and Systemic Risk 116 5.2.3 Concentration, Competition, and Stability 118 5.2.4 Consolidation, Diversification, Internationalization, and Stability 121 5.2.5 Lessons from the Subprime Financial Crisis 122 5.3 Interaction of Competition Policy and Regulation 124 5.3.1 The Competition-Stability Trade-Off and Regulation 124 5.3.2 The Competition-Stability Trade-Off in Emerging Economies 129 5.3.3 Coordination of Competition Policy and Prudential Regulation 130 5.4 Assessment of the Regulatory Reform Post 2007-2009 Crisis 134 Chapter 6 An Overview of Competition Policy Practice 141 6.1 The Concerns of the Competition Authorities in the EU and the UK 142 6.1.1 The EU 142 6.1.2 The UK 143 6.2 Market Definition 146 6.3 Mergers 149 6.3.1 The United States 150 6.3.2 The EU 151 6.4 Cartels and Restrictive Agreements 154 6.4.1 International Cartels 156 6.4.2 Credit Cards and Two-Sided Markets 159 6.5 State Aid in the EU 161 6.6 Consumer Protection and Behavioral Banking 163 6.6.1 The United States 166 6.6.2 The EU 168 6.7 Banking Competition Policy in Emerging Economies 170 6.7.1 Brazil 170 6.7.2 China 172 6.7.3 India 174 6.7.4 Mexico 175 6.7.5 Russian Federation 178 6.7.6 Southern Mediterranean Countries 180 Chapter 7 Competition Policy, Regulatory Architecture, and Public Intervention in the Crisis 183 7.1 Regulatory Architecture and the Competition Authority 183 7.1.1 The Design of the Financial Regulatory Architecture 183 7.1.2 The EU 190 7.1.3 The UK 195 7.2 Public Intervention, State Ownership, and Competition Distortions 199 7.2.1 Systemic Crisis, State Aid, and Competitive Distortions 199 7.2.2 State Ownership in Banking 201 7.2.3 Savings Banks 202 7.3 Competition Policy and State Aid in the EU 205 7.3.1 The 2007-2009 Crisis and Banking Resolution Tools 206 7.3.2 State Aid and Competition Distortions 209 7.3.3 Competition Policy, TBTF, and Moral Hazard 213 7.4 Merger Policy and the "Failing-Firm Defense" Doctrine 215 7.4.1 The United States 215 7.4.2 The UK 216 7.4.3 The "Failing-Firm Defense" in Banking 217 7.4.4 Spain 218 Chapter 8 Summary of Findings and Policy Implications 222 8.1 Summary of Findings 222 8.1.1 Evolution of Banking 223 8.1.2 The Role of Regulation and the Response to the 2007-2009 Crisis 224 8.1.3 The Nature of Competition in Banking 227 8.1.4 The Trade-Off between Competition and Stability 229 8.1.5 Competition Policy Practice in the Banking Sector 231 8.2 Policy Implications 233 8.2.1 Competition Policy Recommendations 233 8.2.2 Assessment of Regulatory Reform 235 8.2.3 Regulation and Competition Policy Must Be Coordinated 237 8.2.4 Regulatory Architecture 239 8.3 Challenges 241 Notes 245 References 283 Index 315

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Book SynopsisTrade ReviewGeorge A. Akerlof, Co-Winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics Robert J. Shiller, Co-Winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics Winner of the 2016 Gold Medal in Economics, Axiom Business Book Awards One of Foreign Affairs' Best Economic, Social, and Environmental (Economics) Books of 2016 Selected for Bloomberg View's "The Writing that Shaped Economic Thinking in 2016" One of The Times Literary Supplement's Books of the Year 2016, chosen by Paul Collier Honorable Mention for the 2016 PROSE Award in Economics, Association of American Publishers One of The Independent's Best Economics Books 2015 One of LinkedIn's Best Business Books of 2015 One of BusinessInsider.com's Best Business Books of 2015 One of Legal Theory Bookworm's Books of the Year 2015 Longlisted for the Financial Times and McKinsey Business Book of the Year 2015 "[Akerlof and Shiller] want to go far beyond behavioral economics, at least in its current form. They offer a much more general, and quite damning, account of why free markets and competition cause serious problems... They are intellectual renegades... Akerlof and Shiller make a convincing argument that phishing occurs because of the operation of the invisible hand, not in spite of it... [This] extraordinary book tells us something true, and profoundly important, about the operation of the invisible hand."--Cass Sunstein, New York Review of Books "No question, Phishing for Phools is a radical book. It may also be a radically important one."--Fortune "Entertaining, readable and provocative."--John Lanchester, London Review of Books "I highly recommend this, even for those who might disagree with the authors' outlook. Their case studies are illuminating, and their insights on the way markets work are fascinating. When you consider the sorry state of the personal finances of the median working age family in the United States today, it's hard to disagree with their central thesis that our current system isn't working properly."--John Reeves, The Motley Fool, USA Today "A needed call for skeptical economics and financial mindfulness."--Nature "Using compelling examples of flawed decision making from advertising, health care and personal finances, the authors identify our rational weak spots and arm readers with the ability to resist manipulation."--Scientific American Mind "As you would expect, it's a very clearly written book with tons of examples. And it makes a simple and powerful point about the fragility of the normative, welfare economics conclusions economists tend to draw."--Diane Coyle, The Enlightened Economist "Akerlof and Shiller present convincing evidence of how tobacco, pharmaceutical, and liquor companies and politicians weasel a chapter of their own into our life stories, abusing the mutual storytelling--with all its signs and wonders--that is elemental to our humanity."--Peter Lewis, Barnes & Noble Review "With accessible language and everyday examples, Shiller and Akerlof are taking on the powerful belief that aside from a few blemishes (like widening income inequality) only fools advocate interfering with the free market."--Chris Farrell, Minneapolis Star Tribune "The book's central message is certainly thought-provoking."--The Economist "Phishing for Phools forswears technical language, making this book accessible not only to economists but to consumers and policymakers. It should make everyone rethink the unfettered free-market model."--Brenda Jubin, Investing.com "It's a very clearly written book with tons of examples. And it makes a simple and powerful point about the fragility of the normative, welfare economics conclusions economists tend to draw."--Enlightened Economist "Its critique of conventional economics is more powerful and comprehensive--and more paternalistic--than that of Animal Spirits."--Carlos Lozada, Washington Post "[Akerlof's and Shiller's] insight is a powerful one."--Economist.com's Buttonwood blog "Akerlof and Shiller show that unregulated free markets systematically make people worse off by providing the unscrupulous with opportunities to take advantage of the unwary."--Adam Bouyamourn, The National "[Phishing for Phools] serves the important purpose of holding up a mirror to economics, a subject that prides itself on (supposedly) being the most sophisticated of all the social sciences. Economics may look sophisticated on paper, but it is often completely out of touch when it comes to reality."--Victoria Bateman, Times Higher Education "The book offers powerful support for a skeptical view of free markets, but it's also a helpful guide for consumers to avoid getting ripped off in the course of making important purchases."--Chris Matthews, Fortune "An interesting and entertaining new book by George Akerlof and Robert Shiller looks at the role of trickery in market economies. Phishing for Phools explains that sellers are often out to deceive you, and shows that this isn't an occasional glitch in the market system so much as an intrinsic and pervasive trait... Phishing for Phools aims to help readers understand their psychological weaknesses, so that the phishermen can be phended off more ephectively."--Clive Crook, Bloomberg View "Where Akerlof and Shiller break new ground is the sweeping application of the idea of the 'phishing equilibrium' to finance... The style of Phishing for Phools will be familiar to fans of Shiller's work: light on jargon and pacy enough not to outstay its welcome. The authors tell some engaging tales."--Robin Harding, Financial Times "[A] surprisingly readable yet highly original book ... the evidence and explanations marshaled by Akerlof and Shiller are compelling and they have profound political implications ... an enlightening read by two expert economists. It should be required reading for policy makes and for consumers (which is to say, all of us... [An] important, sobering book."--Oliver Kamm, The Times "Narratives in this impressive book tell how to avoid being tricked by means of better enforcement and being told of pending scams... [O]ne of the few titles dealing with fraud in the marketplace."--Library Journal "The authors provide is a ... unifying theory for all kinds of trickery, an economic explanation for why deception is so rampant. It takes many of our scattered findings about humanity's blind spots--both psychological weakness and a lack of perfect information--and weaves them into a comprehensive framework that has the potential to be devastating for free market fundamentalists."--Victoria Finkle, Washington Monthly "Its central idea is an important one and merits more attention."--Emran Mian, Prospect "Phishing for Phools is packed with examples--including subprime mortgages, pharmaceuticals, political campaigns, gym memberships, credit cards, cars and cranberry juice labels--of the pervasiveness of deception and manipulation in our economy and the price it exacts on individuals and the society at large."--Glenn C. Altschuler, Tulsa World "This interesting book is written by economists mainly for economists, but it includes many entertaining stories about business behavior (and some disturbing ones), told in lively and accessible prose."--Foreign Affairs "The book is easy to read and relate; and more importantly will make you start thinking of the number of times you have been phished. The list would be endless!"--Madan Sabnavis, BusinessWorld "This unusual book offers a simple but challenging corrective to the assumptions made by most mainstream economists... Probably not every reader will agree with every interpretation or argument--but every reader will find something that enlightens and stimulates."--James Ledbetter, Yale Alumni Magazine "This book was enjoyable to read, and the expertise and knowledge of the authors are abundantly evident."--William Holcomb, PsycCRITIQUES "Bob and George urge us to slap Adam Smith's invisible hand when it steals from everybody's cookie jar. They ask us to ponder those situations, economic or political, that provide particularly tempting opportunities to phish for phools... Penetrating insights rendered in accessible prose."--Marlene Lang May, CommonwealTable of ContentsPREFACE vii INTRODUCTION Expect to Be Manipulated: Phishing Equilibrium 1 PART ONE Unpaid Bills and Financial Crash CHAPTER ONE Temptation Strews Our Path 15 CHAPTER TWO Reputation Mining and Financial Crisis 23 PART TWO Phishing in Many Contexts CHAPTER THREE Advertisers Discover How to Zoom In on Our Weak Spots 45 CHAPTER FOUR Rip-offs Regarding Cars, Houses, and Credit Cards 60 CHAPTER FIVE Phishing in Politics 72 CHAPTER SIX Phood, Pharma, and Phishing 84 CHAPTER SEVEN Innovation: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly 96 CHAPTER EIGHT Tobacco and Alcohol 103 CHAPTER NINE Bankruptcy for Profit 117 CHAPTER TEN Michael Milken Phishes with Junk Bonds as Bait 124 CHAPTER ELEVEN The Resistance and Its Heroes 136 PART THREE Conclusion and Afterword CONCLUSION: EXAMPLES AND GENERAL LESSONS New Story in America and Its Consequences 149 AFTERWORD The Significance of Phishing Equilibrium 163 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 175 NOTES 181 BIBLIOGRAPHY 233 INDEX 257

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Book SynopsisTrade ReviewRobert J. Shiller, Co-Winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics A New York Times Bestseller Winner of the 2000 Commonfund Prize for the Best Contribution to Endowment Management Research "Robert J. Shiller ... has done more than any other economist of his generation to document the less rational aspects of financial markets."--Paul Krugman, New York Times "Irrational Exuberance is not just a prophecy of doom... [I]t is a serious attempt to explain how speculative bubbles come about and how they sustain themselves."--John Cassidy, New Yorker "What set off this speculation and what feeds it? Shiller ranges widely his explanations, laying them out in the first 168 pages in easy-to-read, sometimes passionate prose... [T]hose first 168 pages are must reading for anyone with savings invested in stocks."--Louis Uchitelle, New York Times Book Review "Mr. Shiller's book offers a dose of realism... [I]t presents a message investors would be wise to head: Make sure your portfolio is adequately diversified. Save more and don't count on double-digit gains of the past decades continuing to bail you out during retirement."--Burton G. Malkiel, Wall Street Journal "Informative and well-argued ... A calm and reasonable antidote to today's euphoria."--Jeff Madrick, New York Review of Books "Although its message may be unwelcome to many, this important book should be read by anyone interested in economics or the stock markets."--Rene M. Stulz, Science "Dazzling, richly textured, provocative . . By far the most important book about the stock market since Jeremy J. Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run."--William Wolman, Business Week "Shiller has provided an accessible guide to the usually impenetrable literature on financial markets, especially the American stock market."--Foreign Affairs "Shiller contends that investor psychology is so given to herd behavior that it's almost impossible to manipulate or even influence. The market can 'go through significant mispricing lasting years or even decades.'"--Robert J. Samuelson, Washington Post "Irrational Exuberance should be compulsory reading for anybody interested in Wall Street or financially exposed to it; at the moment, that would be roughly everybody in the United States."--Economist "[An] excellent new book... If you want to preserve capital, unload most of your stocks and invest in government bonds."--Steve H. Hanke, Forbes "Likely to be the year's most-talked-about finance book... You can agree or disagree with it. But you owe it to yourself to read it if you are investing in equities or contemplating doing so."--Fred Barbash, International Herald Tribune "Irrational Exuberance is likely to cause a stir... Shiller illustrates how the current market is like a naturally occurring Ponzi scheme in which investors become promoters for the game after receiving initial payments with money taken from subsequent investors."--David Henry, USA Today "Irrational Exuberance is not billed as a personal finance book. But it is. You can agree or disagree with it. But you owe it to yourself to read it if you're investing, or contemplating investing, in inequities."--The Washington Post "A must-read ... Refreshing, well-reasoned ... And very readable."--Michael P. Niemira, Barron's "So why have share prices soared so high in the past five years, taking market valuations past all historical records? Professor Shiller's answer, as the title indicates, is not encouraging. His message is: diversify now as much as you can, and batten down the hatches."--Diane Coyle, Independent "Shiller has written a crystal-clear and tough-minded critique."--David Warsh, Boston Globe "The point of Irrational Exuberance is not to help investors dump their houses before the current exuberance fades. It is to deepen our understanding of the events we are watching as one bubble gives birth to another and to encourage readers to think about economic behavior and economic policies that can cushion the nasty side of volatility."--Sharon Reier, The International Herald Tribune "The first edition of this book was widely read because of its timing. This one, too, seems perfectly timed, coming when we're starting to fear we've been fooling ourselves. Again... There's a world of important information for everyone."--Lyn Miller, USA Today "The second edition's new component ... is Shiller's exploration of how market psychology has responded to the ensuing five years of retrenchment. One chilling conclusion he reaches from his knowledge of past market performance is that the 2005 market may still be correcting and that a return to 2000 levels may be a decade away. He further warns that many investors are still too heavily invested in equities and that proposals to invest Social Security funds in the stock market would subject the retirement system to unacceptable risk. Shiller expands his focus to include the booming real estate market where he sees another speculative bubble building."--Library Journal "There's plenty of new material in this edition... Chief among the new additions is Shiller's deeper focus on recent excesses in the stock market and his skepticism about investing in real estate... Shiller's ideas have so many devoted followers that I wouldn't be surprised to see many more editions."--Angele McQuade, BetterInvesting "Yale University Professor Robert Shiller pretty much called the stock market drop when this book was first published in 2000. In this fact-packed book, Shiller describes the psychological origins of volatility, among other things. And in the newest edition, Shiller compares the recent housing boom to the stock market bubble of the 1990s."--Registered Rep. "[Shiller] fully updates his argument here, adding new material (a chapter on the bond market, his 2013 Nobel lecture) and augmenting the text to reflect developments since the 2005 second edition. He vacuums up all manner of cultural phenomena, from the important (rising income inequality) to the possibly significant (Google Glass) to the trivial (Kim Kardashian), to reinforce his thesis, and he writes expressively, whether explaining arcane economic issues or illustrating how the story behind Mona Lisa's smile helps account for the painting's astonishing market value. A rare example of economic analysis, deeply respected within the discipline, wholly accessible to general readers."--Kirkus "A superb, well-written, well-argued contribution for serious scholars and practitioners, whether they agree with Shiller or not."--Choice "Shiller provides an excellent synthesis of all the evidence contradicting the efficient market hypothesis, especially how a form of irrational exuberance sometimes leads to price bubbles... Without any doubt, Irrational Exuberance must be read by anyone interested in finance. And it really can be read by anyone interested in finance because the genius of this book is to explain complex phenomena easily, avoiding specialist jargon, including mathematics."--David Le Bris, Journal of EconomicsTable of ContentsList of Figures and Tables ix Preface to the Third Edition xi Preface to the Second Edition, 2005 xix Preface to the First Edition, 2000 xxv Acknowledgments xxxi 1 The Stock Market in Historical Perspective 1 2 The Bond Market in Historical Perspective 11 3 The Real Estate Market in Historical Perspective 18 Part 1 Structural Factors 4 Precipitating Factors: The Internet, the Capitalist Explosion, and Other Events 39 5 Amplification Mechanisms: Naturally Occurring Ponzi Processes 70 Part 2 Cultural Factors 6 The News Media 101 7 New Era Economic Thinking 123 8 New Eras and Bubbles around the World 150 Part 3 Psychological Factors 9 Psychological Anchors for the Market 165 10 Herd Behavior and Epidemics 175 Part 4 Attempts to Rationalize Exuberance 11 Efficient Markets, Random Walks, and Bubbles 195 12 Investor Learning-and Unlearning 214 Part 5 A Call to Action 13 Speculative Volatility in a Free Society 225 Appendix Nobel Prize Lecture: Speculative Asset Prices 239 Notes 281 References 321 Index 339

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"While it's difficult to pinpoint what type of trader would enjoy this book the most, I think there's something for everyone, whether you're a quaint, technical trader or a fundamentalist... I feel that I'm smarter after finishing this book; I thoroughly enjoyed the lengthy journey, and would recommend this to any stock market enthusiast."--Jeff Pierce, Seeking Alpha "A highly recommended, enjoyable, well-researched, and thought-provoking book for anyone interested in stock markets and the modeling of financial processes."--Rick Gorvett, Journal of Risk and Insurance "The book is written in a readable style and does not require technical knowledge. Any reader interested in a serious approach to the origin and possible prediction of financial bubbles will enjoy reading it."--Josep M. Porra, Journal of Statistical Physics "Sornette's book is not just about finance and economics; it is also a mesmerizing introduction to game theory, fractals, catastrophe theory, critical phenomena, and much more. No prior knowledge of finance or economics is needed to understand the book... Throughout the book, Sornette makes numerous, vivid comparisons with many other fields in which the various mathematical tools he describes can be applied."--Frank Cuypers, Physics TodayTable of ContentsPreface to the Princeton Science Library Edition xiii Preface to the 2002 Edition xix 1 Financial crashes: what, how, why, and when? 3 What Are Crashes, and Why Do We Care? 3 The Crash of October 1987 5 Historical Crashes 7 The Tulip Mania 7 The South Sea Bubble 9 The Great Crash of October 1929 12 Extreme Events in Complex Systems 15 Is Prediction Possible? A Working Hypothesis 20 2 Fundamentals of financial markets 26 The Basics 27 Price Trajectories 27 Return Trajectories 30 Return Distributions and Return Correlation 33 The Efficient Market Hypothesis and the Random Walk 38 The Random Walk 38 A Parable: How Information Is Incorporated in Prices, Thus Destroying Potential "Free Lunches" 42 Prices Are Unpredictable, or Are They? 45 Risk-Return Trade-Off 47 3 Financial crashes are "outliers" 49 What Are "Abnormal" Returns? 49 Drawdowns (Runs) 51 Definition of Drawdowns 51 Drawdowns and the Detection of "Outliers" 54 Expected Distribution of "Normal" Drawdowns 56 Drawdown Distributions of Stock Market Indices 60 The Dow Jones Industrial Average 60 The Nasdaq Composite Index 62 Further Tests 65 The Presence of Outliers Is a General Phenomenon 69 Main Stock Market Indices, Currencies, and Gold 70 Largest U.S. Companies 73 Synthesis 75 Symmetry-Breaking on Crash and Rally Days 76 Implications for Safety Regulations of Stock Markets 77 4 Positive feedbacks 81 Feedbacks and Self-Organization in Economics 82 Hedging Derivatives, Insurance Portfolios, and Rational Panics 89 "Herd" Behavior and "Crowd" Effect 91 Behavioral Economics 91 Herding 94 Empirical Evidence of Financial Analysts' Herding 96 Forces of Imitation 99 It Is Optimal to Imitate When Lacking Information 99 Mimetic Contagion and the Urn Models 104 Imitation from Evolutionary Psychology 106 Rumors 108 The Survival of the Fittest Idea 111 Gambling Spirits 112 "Anti-Imitation" and Self-Organization 114 Why It May Pay to Be in the Minority 114 El-Farol's Bar Problem 115 Minority Games 117 Imitation versus Contrarian Behavior 118 Cooperative Behaviors Resulting from Imitation 121 The Ising Model of Cooperative Behavior 122 Complex Evolutionary Adaptive Systems of Boundedly Rational Agents 130 5 Modeling financial bubbles and market crashes 134 What Is a Model? 134 Strategy for Model Construction in Finance 135 Basic Principles 135 The Principle of Absence of Arbitrage Opportunity 136 Existence of Rational Agents 137 "Rational Bubbles" and Goldstone Modes of the Price "Parity Symmetry" Breaking 139 Price Parity Symmetry 140 Speculation as Spontaneous Symmetry Breaking 144 Basic Ingredients of the Two Models 148 The Risk-Driven Model 150 Summary of the Main Properties of the Model 150 The Crash Hazard Rate Drives the Market Price 152 Imitation and Herding Drive the Crash Hazard Rate 155 The Price-Driven Model 162 Imitation and Herding Drive the Market Price 162 The Price Return Drives the Crash Hazard Rate 164 Risk-Driven versus Price-Driven Models 168 6 Hierarchies, complex fractal dimensions, and log-periodicity 171 Critical Phenomena by Imitation on Hierarchical Networks 173 The Underlying Hierarchical Structure of Social Networks 173 Critical Behavior in Hierarchical Networks 177 A Hierarchical Model of Financial Bubbles 181 Origin of Log-Periodicity in Hierarchical Systems 186 Discrete Scale Invariance 186 Fractal Dimensions 188 Organization Scale by Scale: The Renormalization Group 192 Principle and Illustration of the Renormalization Group 192 The Fractal Weierstrass Function: A Singular Time-Dependent Solution of the Renormalization Group 195 Complex Fractal Dimensions and Log-Periodicity 198 Importance and Usefulness of Discrete Scale Invariance 208 Existence of Relevant LengthScales 208 Prediction 209 Scenarios Leading to Discrete Scale Invariance and Log-Periodicity 210 Newcomb-Benford Law of First Digits and the Arithmetic System 211 The Log-Periodic Law of the Evolution of Life? 213 Nonlinear Trend-Following versus Nonlinear Fundamental Analysis Dynamics 217 Trend Following: Positive Nonlinear Feedback and Finite-Time Singularity 218 Reversal to the Fundamental Value: Negative Nonlinear Feedback 220 Some Characteristics of the Price Dynamics of the Nonlinear Dynamical Model 223 7 Autopsy of major crashes: universal exponents and logperiodicity 228 The Crash of October 1987 228 Precursory Pattern 231 Aftershock Patterns 236 The Crash of October 1929 239 The Three Hong Kong Crashes of 1987, 1994, and 1997 242 The Hong Kong Crashes 242 The Crash of October 1997 and Its Resonance on the U.S. Market 246 Currency Crashes 254 The Crash of August 1998 259 Nonparametric Test of Log-Periodicity 263 The Slow Crash of 1962 Ending the "Tronics" Boom 266 The Nasdaq Crash of April 2000 269 "Antibubbles" 275 The "Bearish" Regime on the Nikkei Starting from January 1, 1990 276 The Gold Deflation Price Starting in Mid-1980 278 Synthesis: "Emergent" Behavior of the Stock Market 279 8 Bubbles, crises, and crashes in emergent markets 281 Speculative Bubbles in Emerging Markets 281 Methodology 285 Latin-American Markets 286 Asian Markets 295 The Russian Stock Market 304 Correlations across Markets: Economic Contagion and Synchronization of Bubble Collapse 309 Implications for Mitigations of Crises 314 9 Prediction of bubbles, crashes, and antibubbles 320 The Nature of Predictions 320 How to Develop and Interpret Statistical Tests of Log-Periodicity 325 First Guidelines for Prediction 329 What Is the Predictive Power of Equation (15)? 329 How Long Prior to a Crash Can One Identify the Log-Periodic Signatures? 330 A Hierarchy of Prediction Schemes 334 The Simple Power Law 334 The "Linear" Log-Periodic Formula 335 The "Nonlinear" Log-Periodic Formula 336 The Shank's Transformation on a Hierarchy of Characteristic Times 336 Application to the October 1929 Crash 337 Application to the October 1987 Crash 338 Forward Predictions 338 Successful Prediction of the Nikkei 1999 Antibubble 339 Successful Prediction of the Nasdaq Crash of April 2000 342 The U.S. Market, December 1997 False Alarm 342 The U.S. Market, October 1999 False Alarm 346 Present Status of Forward Predictions 346 The Finite Probability That No Crash Will Occur during a Bubble 346 Estimation of the Statistical Significance of the Forward Predictions 347 Statistical Confidence of the Crash"Roulette" 347 Statistical Significance of a Single Successful Prediction via Bayes's Theorem 349 The Error Diagram and the Decision Process 351 Practical Implications on Different Trading Strategies 352 10 2050: The end of the growth era? 355 Stock Markets, Economics, and Population 355 The Pessimistic Viewpoint of "Natural" Scientists 357 The Optimistic Viewpoint of "Social" Scientists 359 Analysis of the Faster-Than-Exponential Growth of Population, GDP, and Financial Indices 361 Refinements of the Analysis 369 Complex Power Law Singularities 369 Prediction for the Coming Decade 371 The Aging "Baby Boomers" 377 Related Works and Evidence 378 Scenarios for the "Singularity" 383 Collapse 384 Transition to Sustainability 389 Resuming Accelerating Growth by Overpassing Fundamental Barriers 393 The Increasing Propensity to Emulate the Stock Market Approach 395 References 397 Index 419

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"This book presents some practical advice for firms and their investment bankers on how to ‘de-bias' their judgement when making merger and acquisition decisions. . . . Practitioners in mergers and acquisitions should certainly consider adding this book to their existing toolkit."---David Butler, Economic RecordTable of ContentsLIST OF FIGURES vii LIST OF TABLES ix PREFACE xi About This Book xi Who Should Read This Book? Xii A New Strategic Valuation Approach as a Bridge between Theory and Practice xiv Academic Contribution and Features xvi A Guide through the Book xviii CHAPTER 1. LEARNING TO SEE, TO ADAPT TO, AND TO VALUE UNCERTAINTY 1 Learning to See Uncertainty 3 Learning to Adapt to Uncertainty 8 Learning to Value Uncertainty 11 Summary 15 PART I. LEARNING TO SEE UNCERTAINTY 17 CHAPTER 2. HOW TO DE-BIAS VALUATION OVER THE CYCLE 19 Problem Diagnosis: Why Acquisitions Occur in Go/No-Go Waves 20 Avoiding Irrational Infection of the Valuation Analysis 22 A Remedy for Uncertainty Neglect: Broaden Your Narrow View 25 Examples of Appropriate Real Options Thinking in Hot and Cold Deal Markets 32 Conclusions 41 CHAPTER 3. PLAYING AT SERIAL ACQUISITIONS: THE CASE OF VODAFONE 43 Six Potential Pitfalls in the Execution of a Serial Acquisition Strategy 44 Can Rational Analysis Discipline Strategy? 57 Dual Valuation of Growth Option Value to Avoid Irrational Infection 61 How to Use Option Games to Overcome Bidding Pitfalls 65 Conclusions 68 PART II. LEARNING TO ADAPT TO UNCERTAINTY 73 CHAPTER 4. STRATEGY AS OPTIONS GAMES 75 Classifying Acquisition Options under Competition 78 Expressing a Buy-and-Build Strategy as an Option Portfolio 81 Competition in the Bidding Game 87 Play Poker against Rivals Who Overshoot or Fall Asleep 93 Conclusions 95 CHAPTER 5. DUAL REAL OPTIONS VALUATION: THE XSTRATA CASE 101 Illustrative Example of the Dual Approach: Xstrata's Journey 103 Bottom-Up Framework: Xstrata's Serial Acquisitions 106 Top-Down Framework for Listed Companies: How Finance Can Enlighten Strategy 112 General Implications and Limitations 117 Conclusions 118 PART III. LEARNING TO VALUE UNCERTAINTY 121 CHAPTER 6. OPTION GAMES VALUATION 123 Designing and Solving an Option Bidding Game 124 Quantifying the Optionality of the Falconbridge Episode 133 Conclusions: How Option Games Can Deliver Their Potential 147 CHAPTER 7. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS 151 Biases and Options Are Everywhere 152 The Problem: Selected Pitfalls in Acquisition Decision Making 154 The Solution: How Executives Can De-bias Their Acquisition Decisions 158 Selected Implications to Deal Rationally with One's Own Biases,Financial Markets, and "Irrational" Rivals 163 Empirical Evidence 166 Promising Future Research Directions 169 Broaden Your View with Option Games 171 BIBLIOGRAPHY 173 INDEX 185

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"Finalist for the PROSE Award in Reference Works – Social Sciences, Association of American Publishers"

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"The book is worth reading from cover to cover. It is thoughtful, well written, lucidly surveys some well-known material, and brings useful insights using some of the tools of industrial organisation economics."---Geoffrey Wood, Central Banking Journal"Competition and Stability in Banking can be said to represent the best of available knowledge. . . . An impressive work of one of the leading economists in the field. It is first of all a (rather: the) new textbook on a Master or PhD level. Yet, it should also be mandatory reading to all economists (and lawyers) working in official or government agencies related to either banking regulation and supervision or competition."---Urs Birchler, Journal of Economics and Statistics

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"The book shows the advances Machine Learning offers for academic research. The book certainly makes a difference in the exploding literature on Machine Learning and I highly recommend it to all academics in finance."---Thorsten Hens, Journal of Economics

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"The Economy of Promises is a model of good social science history. . . . Regardless of your chosen discipline, The Economy of Promises is the best place to start if you want to learn about the evolution of credit in America."---Bradley Hansen, EH.net

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Book SynopsisIllustrates how information choice is used to answer questions in monetary economics, portfolio choice theory, business cycle theory, international finance, asset pricing, and other areas. This book covers work on topics such as rational inattention, information markets, and strategic games with heterogeneous information.Trade Review"The book is well structured and well written. . . . Veldkamp does an excellent job combining different streams of the literature of information choice. This book helped me a lot to give a structure to my partial knowledge on imperfect information."---Christian Merkl, Journal of Economics

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Book Synopsis

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Book SynopsisThe globalization of finance is widely recognised as one of the most significant features of the contemporary world. In this timely new book, Tony Porter guides students through current debates about global finance and discusses the extent to which the development of a global marketplace affects our daily lives.Trade Review“Tony Porter has long been a leading scholar in examining and explaining the tangled webs of organization and politics that characterize global finance in the twenty-first century. These webs cut across and link the categories of public and private, domestic and international, market and hierarchy, and formal and informal institutions and processes. In a world that is both shrinking and yet developing more and more complex forms of multilevel governance, Globalization and Finance does double duty. It is both a textbook that introduces this potential minefield in clear and accessible terms, and a path-breaking exercise in paradigm-building.”Philip G. Cerny, Rutgers University “Tony Porter’s Globalization and Finance covers everything you ever wanted to know on the subject: theory, data, history, policy, impacts and ethics. All is meticulously researched, thoughtfully analyzed, and lucidly written. Porter makes global finance both interesting and accessible. An empowering read!”Jan Aart Scholte, University of Warwick “Tony Porter not only tackles the most salient issues and approaches relating to the globalization of finance, but does so in a highly accessible manner. Students will find this book an invaluable introduction to the topic.” Susanne Soederberg, Queen’s University at Kingston, Ontario "Tony Porter's book presents an interesting viewpoint on globalisation and global finance....The narrative is a rich mixture of history, institutional economics, international finance and social science including political science." Asian VoiceTable of ContentsPreface List of Acronyms Part I: The Institutionalization of Global Finance Chapter 1 Introduction: Why Study Global Finance? Chapter 2 Debates and Controversies in the Conceptualization of Global Finance Chapter 3 The Emerging Regime for Regulating Global Finance Part II: Sectoral Developments Chapter 4 International Banking Chapter 5 The Governance of Global Securities and Derivatives Markets Chapter 6 Foreign Direct Investment Part III: New Actors and New Frontiers in Global Finance Chapter 7 Business Institutions and Private-Sector Norms Chapter 8 Developing and Transition Countries Chapter 9 Non-Governmental Organizations and Global Civil Society Part IV: Democracy and Politics in the Governance of Global Finance Chapter 10 Gender and the Globalization of Finance Chapter 11 Risk Politics and Financial Crises Chapter 12 Democracy and Legitimacy in the Governance of Global Finance Notes References Index

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