Epidemiology and Medical statistics Books

Book SynopsisIn recent decades, alternatives to the established bubonic-plague theory have been presented as to the microbiologcal identity and mechanism(s) of spread of historical plague epidemics. In this monograph, the six important alternative theories are intensively discussed in the light of the historical sources, the central primary studies and standard works on bubonic plague and the alternative microbiological agents, insofar as they are testable. These seven theories are incompatible and at least six of them must be untenable. In the author’s opinion, the arguments against the bubonic-plague theory and for all alternative theories are untenable. This monograph therefore also has been written also as a standard work on bubonic plague, giving a broad and in-depth presentation of the medical, epidemiological and historical evidence and the methodological tenets for identification of historical diseases by comparison with modern medical knowledge.Trade Review"En líneas generales, Benedictow articula el libro en torno a tres ejes principales. Así, en el primero se encarga de definir las condiciones básicas para el desarrollo de la plaga bubónica en la Europa medieval, en el segundo pormenoriza las características definitorias de la epidemia y por último, una vez perfilado el cuadro de qué es y qué sabemos de la Peste Negra, se lanza a desmontar las teorías alternativas que han ido surgiendo en los últimos años, señalando sus defectos de forma y contenido." - Alberto Reche (IEM), Medievalia, 2012, No. 15, 366-368 pp.Table of ContentsList of Figures and Tables xiii Preface xv PART ONE: THE ISSUE 1. The Issue and the Problems 3 Introduction 3 The Human-Flea Theory of Plague Epidemiology 9 The Revisionists 16 PART TWO: HOW S.K. COHN MAKES PHYSICIANS AND HISTORIANS “SQUARE THE CIRCLE” 2. The Ethics of Scholarly Work 25 Introduction 25 How Cohn Makes Medical Scientists “Square the Circle” 26 Hankin 1: Cohn’s Attack on Hankin’s Observation of Inverse Correlation between Mortality and Population Density 34 Hankin 2: A Brief Study of Cohn’s Technique of Argument 38 “The Ugly Americans” 44 Cohn’s Accusations of Racism against J. Ashburton Thompson and L.F. Hirst 46 How Cohn Makes “Historians Square the Circle” 54 The Attack on Schofi eld (and Benedictow and L. Bradley) 62 PART THREE: BASIC CONDITIONS FOR BUBONIC PLAGUE IN MEDIEVAL EUROPE 3. Rats 73 Introduction: How to Study Rats in History 73 The Nature of Rats and the Frame of Reference of the Medieval Mind 78 The Question of the Presence of Rats and the Methodological Fallacy of Inference ex silentio 85 Ars Moriendi Rattorum: Where Have all the Dead Rats Gone? 91 Zoobiological and Zoogeographical Arguments on the Question of Signifi cant Presence of Black Rats in Medieval Europe 98 The Signifi cance of Evolutionary Th eory and Adaptation by Selection 116 Rat Bones: Material Evidence of the Presence of Rats in the Middle Ages 122 Sociology of Rat-Based Plague 142 4. The Spread of Bubonic Plague over Distances 151 Contiguous Spread and Metastatic Spread 151 5. Mortality in India 194 Effects of the Anti-epidemic Eff orts by British Colonial Authorities 194 6. Was Historical Plague a Viral or Bacterial Disease? The Question of Immunity 205 Introduction 205 Re-infection or Immunity? 212 Did Plague Become a Child Disease aft er the Black Death? 218 Plague according to Social Class, Age and Gender 235 A Demographic Case Study: Th e Necrology of the Monastery of San Domenico in Camporegio 245 The Real Problem and its Solution: Marriage Rates and Fertility Rates aft er the Black Death 268 PART FOUR: DEFINING FEATURES Introduction: Concept of Defining Feature 277 7. Defining Feature 1: Latency Periods 279 8. Defining Feature 2: Inverse Correlation between Mortality Rate and Population Density 289 Introduction 289 More Data on the Inverse Correlation in India and Historical Europe 291 Scott and Duncan and the Correlation between Population Density and Mortality 301 Epilogue: Sweating Sickness and the Inverse Correlation 311 9. Defining Feature 3: Buboes as a Normal Clinical Feature in Epidemics 312 General Introduction 312 Contemporary Notions and Observations of Buboes (and Associated Secondary Clinical Manifestations) 322 Scott and Duncan: The Problem of Buboes 334 Cohn: The Problem of Buboes 340 Cohn and Boccaccio: Buboes, Pustules and Spots 359 10. Defining Feature 4: DNA of Yersinia pestis from Plague Graves 381 11. Defining Feature 5: Seasonality of Bubonic Plague 396 Introduction: Bubonic Plague’s Association with Moderately Warm Temperatures and Seasons 396 Seasonality of Historical Bubonic-Plague Epidemics with Emphasis on the Transseasonal Form 398 The Seasonality of Plague and Mortality in England 1340–1666 420 Duration of Vacancies in Parish Benefices during the Black Death 436 Temporal Relationship between the Territorial Spread of the Black Death and Increase in Institutions 463 Summary and Conclusion 482 PART FIVE: THE ALTERNATIVE THEORIES Introduction: The History and Essence of the Alternative Theories 487 12. The Beginning: Th e Alternative Theories of Shrewsbury and Morris 489 Shrewsbury: the Composite, Low-Intensity Theory 489 Morris: The Primary Pneumonic Theory 491 13. Gunnar Karlsson’s Alternative Theory: That Historical Plague was Pure Epidemics of Primary Pneumonic Plague 493 Introduction 493 Karlsson and Benedictow 495 Could Plague Have Come to Iceland from Anywhere? 502 Pure Epidemics of Primary Pneumonic Plague: Fact or Fiction? 511 Primary Pneumonic Plague in Manchuria: A Model for Iceland? 514 The Spontaneous Decline of Epidemics of Primary Pneumonic Plague 518 The Icelandic Climatic Th eory of Primary Pneumonic Plague 528 Mortality Rate of the Purported Plague Epidemics in Iceland 530 Summary: Why There Never Was a Plague Epidemic in Iceland 533 Was the Black Death in Bergen (Norway) 1349 Primary Pneumonic Plague? 536 Summary and Conclusion 550 14. Twigg’s Alternative Theory 553 Introduction 553 Th e Alternative Theory of Anthrax 555 Th e Historical Basis: The Use of Obsolete and Peripheral Studies 560 Th e Telluric-Miasmatic Th eory of Anthrax 562 Th e Pace of Spread of Plague 566 Anthrax and the Name Black Death 571 Anthrax’s Historical Association with Other Epizootics among Domestic Animals and Plague 574 Th e Black Death’s Origin and Spread and the Anthrax Theory 580 Twigg’s Demographic Argument 595 Concluding Remarks 608 15. The Alternative Theory of Scott and Duncan 610 Introduction 610 Disparaging Views of Historians and Physicians: Motive and Objective 611 The Material Scholarly Basis of Scott and Duncan’s Alternative Theory 615 The Demography of Historical Plague 628 The Reed-Frost Theory of Epidemiology 633 The Filoviridal Theory of Historical Plague: A Study in Academic Fiction 636 The Significance of Autopsies 653 Th e African Confinement 661 Summary and Conclusion 662 16. Cohn’s Alternative Theory 664 Epilogue 673 Appendix 1 Black Death Mortality in Siena: The Material Provided by the Necrology of the Monastery of San Domenico in Camporegio and Summarized in Table 5 675 Appendix 2 Th e Accounts of the Icelandic Epidemics of 1402–4 and 1494–5 Given in Icelandic Annals 680 Appendix 3 Th e Extrinsic Incubation Period and the Structure and Composition of the Latency Period 682 Glossary 688 Bibliography 693 Index of Subjects 717 Index of Geographical Names and People 730 Index of Names 740

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Book SynopsisIn The Coronavirus Crisis and Its Teachings: Steps towards Multi-Resilience Roland Benedikter and Karim Fathi first describe the pluri-dimensional characteristics of the Coronavirus crisis. Then they draw the pillars for a more “multi-resilient” Post-Corona world including socio-political recommendations of how to generate it. The Coronavirus crisis proved to be a bundle crisis consisting of multiple, interconnected crisis dimensions. Before Corona, most concepts of a “resilient society” implied a rather isolated focus on only one crisis at a time. Future preparedness in the 21st century will require a multi- and transdisciplinary risk-management concept that the authors call “multi-resilience”. “Multi-resilience” means to systematically enhance universal resilience competencies of societies, such as collective intelligence or overall responsiveness, being appliable to pluri-dimensional crisis contexts. If the Coronavirus crisis in retrospect will have contributed to implement multi-resilience, then it will ultimately have contributed to progress. This volume includes a Foreword by Jan Nederveen Pieterse and an Afterword by Manfred B. Steger.Trade Review“This book is an impressive compass for the Post-Corona World. It makes clear that Multi-Resilience is the central answer to the challenges of a sustainable future.” – Professor Dr. Uwe Schneidewind, Former Director of the Wuppertal Institute and Professor for Innovation Management and Sustainability at the Bergische Universität Wuppertal “Managing global crises-bundles and bundle-crises in the 21st century is in large parts a challenge of transdisciplinary complexity management. This book outlines the concept of societal multi-resiliency as a promising and necessary approach towards systemic future-preparedness.” – Dr. Louis Klein, Vice-President of the International Federation for Systems Research (IFSR) and Dean of the European School of Governance (EUSG) Berlin “Corona, Lehman and the foreseeable next crises have a common cause: a non-sustainable life form. As long as this development continues, by only focusing on curing the symptoms, the next crises of civilization are pre-programmed. This book offers an exemplary overview of Post-Corona discourses and identifies practical starting points for complexity-adequate multi-resilience strategies.” – apl Professor Dr. Niko Paech, Department of Production and Environment, Faculty of Economics, University of Siegen “Benedikter and Fathi make a major contribution to one of the most pressing questions of our time: How to re-organize the world after Corona? This book provides one of the most encompassing accounts of – and overview over – the Coronavirus crisis 2019-20 available on the market. It also presents one of the most original and complexity-adequate solution patterns, including an advanced concept of prevention and anticipation branded ‘Multi-Resilience’. A must-read for everybody who wants to be informed in-depth and understand how to prepare for the next upcoming global emergency.” – Professor Dott. Andrea Billi, University Rome I - La Sapienza, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Director, Sapienza Innovazione (Sapienza Innovation - SI) “The globe is asking: What will the Post-Corona world look like? The answer is in principle a fundamental hope: A better, more just world. This book contributes to exemplarily sketch the path toward such a different world by undertaking the two indispensable steps needed: first, by carefully reconstructing what happened, including countless examples of the phenomenology of the crisis, its many side effects and ramifications. Second, by providing the practical tools to master transformation positively in order to build a more resilient global society. I can hardly think of one concept, one thought, one aspect that has not been elaborated in this book in a comprehensive, multi- and transdisciplinary way. The Corona epidemic worked as magnifying lens on the state of our planet, and the authors offer a multi-facetted view on several potential futures. Will we forget the lecture learned as soon as we have a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2? This volume tells me that the odds are against this proposition: there is no going back to business as usual. Post Corona est ante majorem proximum angustum.” – Professor Dr. Roland Psenner, Head of the National Committee “Global Change” of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vice President of the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna “In addition to a rich and multifaceted knowledge transfer for a Post-Corona world, the authors describe five principles for multi-resilience. The existing resilience strategies against the Coronavirus pandemic and future emergencies are not sufficient and are therefore not sustainable. The discussion triggered by the Coronavirus pandemic about a reorientation of globalization, i.e. toward re-globalization, is excellently described and illustrated by examples. There is no comparable book in the context of the Coronavirus pandemic, given that this one is committed to a fairer and better world potentially coming out of the crisis with many concrete theses. This book belongs in the hands of everyone who wants to be comprehensively informed about possible progress in a Post-Corona world. It also belongs in the hands of social and political decision-makers and should be made compulsory reading for students.” – Werner Mittelstaedt, futurist, author of many books about sustainable futures, founder and editor of the journal Blickpunkt Zukunft [“Viewpoint Future“] "Without doubt, the COVID pandemic has shed light on human vulnerabilities and capabilities on a variety of scales. Our humanity, as an interactive system of biological, psychologic, socio-economic, and political domains and dimensions has been affected by, and reactive to both the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and the current structures and functions of institutions of healthcare, public safety, economic stability, and political leadership. The pandemic has been a crisis, in the most literal sense - a time of difficulty, decision, and change. The question remains as to whether, and to what extent, the COVID crisis will evoke change to these regnant systems. Roland Benedikter and Karim Fathi address this question, and its embedded and derivative scientific, socio-economic, political, and cultural issues. To be sure, their invocation to regard, heed and engage the status quo is telling, informative, and rightly provocative. The American historian Daniel J. Boorstin has stated that "...education is learning what you didn't even know you didn't know"; and in that light, Benedikter and Fathi provide a stellar education based upon - and responsive to - what the COVID crisis may teach, and prompt - if not require - the world to learn." – James Giordano, Ph.D., Professor, Departments of Neurology and Biochemistry and Senior Scholar-in-Residence, Pellegrino Center for Clinical Bioethics, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, and Senior Research Fellow Biosecurity, Technology, and Ethics, US Naval War College, Newport, RI, USA ---------------------------------------- Online conference and book presentation with Roland Benedikter and Karim Fathi. The Coronavirus Crisis and Its Teachings: Steps Towards Multi-Resilience in: eurac researchTable of ContentsForeword Jan Nederveen Pieterse Preface Acknowledgements List of Figures Overview and Summary part 1 The Coronavirus Crisis 1 Introduction “Do Nothing” or, an Epochal Crisis 2 Systemic Unpreparedness Inducing a Variety of Psychological Reactions 3 The Branches and Social Strata Hardest Hit A List to Be Carefully Remembered for the Next Systemic Rupture 4 Were Nature and the Environment “Winners” of the Crisis? Disputed “Improvements” and Their Flip Sides 5 Children and Relationships 6 Labour and the Economy “Generation Corona” 7 Corona and Re-Globalisation 1 Sharpening Awareness about the Differences between Political Systems and Their Growing Asymmetries 8 A Battle for Values and Transformation Not Confined to Bilateral Competition, but Spanning the Globe 9 Unprecedented Penetrative Depth Uplifting Technology, Changing Sexuality, Questioning Science? 10 Corona and Re-Globalisation 2 Creating Conscience for National and International Reforms 11 Intellectual Rhetoric between Cheap “Humanistic” Appeal and Kitsch 12 “Humanised” Technology Instead of a New Humanism? 13 A Boost to “Post-human Hybrid Intelligence” Such as Biological Espionage and Sentiment Analysis? 14 Striking a Balance Was Corona a Watershed for Western Humanism and the Basic Rationality of the Enlightenment? 15 The Vast Variety of Political Instrumentalisations 16 Three More Far-reaching Aspects within Global Democracies and Open Societies Confirmation Bias, “Republican” Turn and Re-Globalisation Drive part 2 The Simultaneousness of Local, National and Global Effects 17 An Unprecedented Crisis Accelerating the (Temporary?) Rupture of Advanced Life Patterns – Including Gender Role Models in Democracies 18 “Unsocial Sociability” and the Re-shaping of the Global Order Anthropology and Politics Intertwined 19 Medical Diplomacy, or: The Great Divide of Principles over and after Corona More “Do It Alone” – or More Cooperation? 20 Don’t Forget the Bizarre, the Surreal and the Perfidious From Mona Lisa to Sharon Stone and Global Terror 21 Coronavirus Crisis Social Psychology Between Disorientation, Infodemic and the Need to Understand 22 Conspiracy Theories Misusing the Crisis for Legitimating the Absurd in Times of “Fake News” 23 The Perspective The Real Question is Not about covid-19, but about “the World after” part 3 The Corona Challenge: Multi-Resilience for an Interconnected World Ridden by Crisis Bundles 24 In Search of Examples of Efficient Resilience From the Evolutionary Teachings of Bats to Regional Self-administration within Political Autonomies to a “Flexible” Handling of Constitutions 25 Crisis Resistance in the Face of Corona and in Anticipation of Potential Future Pandemics A Short Overview of Different Options of Socio-political Responses 26 The Primordial Path to Follow Enhancing Resilience. Basic Philosophical Assumptions and Their Implications for Crisis-policy Design 27 Revisioning the Concept of Resilience A Necessary Step (Not Only) after Corona 28 Progressing from Resilience to Multi-resilience Two Basic Approaches 28.1 Prerequisites: Relevant Criteria 28.2 Complexify: Multi-resilience in a Systemic Perspective 28.3 Simplify: Multi-resilience in an Action-oriented Perspective 29 Five Principles of Multi-resilience 29.1 Principle 1: Fostering Individual Resilience 29.2 Principle 2: Integrating Centralised and Decentralised Decision-making and Implementation 29.3 Principle 3: Problem-solving Practices with Knowns and Unknowns 29.4 Principle 4: Supporting and Enhancing Collective Intelligence through Participatory and Cross-sectoral Knowledge Management and Integration 29.5 Principle 5: Fostering “Resilience Culture” by Stimulating and Facilitating Collective Reasoning and Cohesion 30 Summary. Multi-resilience A Crucial Topic to Shape “Globalisation 2.0” part 4 Requirements for a Post-Corona World 31 The Corona Effect and “Diseasescape” Towards Weaker, but More Realistic Globalisation and Transnationalisation? 32 The Uncertainty about the Future of covid-19 Short-term Scenarios versus Big-picture Trends 33 Technological Requirements Six Trends 33.1 Remote Working 33.2 eLearning 33.3 Telehealth 33.4 E-commerce and On-demand Economy 33.5 Automatisation 33.6 Increasing Use of Immersive Technologies 34 Towards a Post-Corona World Seven Upcoming Conflict Lines Open Societies Should Prepare for 34.1 Nationalism versus Globalism 34.2 Freedom versus Safety 34.3 Professionalism versus Populism 34.4 Class: Rich versus Poor 34.5 Ethnicity (Racism) 34.6 Gender 34.7 Generation: Young versus Old 35 The Post-Corona World Potentials and Visions for a “Better Globalised” International System 35.1 Idea Potentials: Policy-relevant Contributions by Intellectuals, Ecologists and Futurists 35.2 Universal Basic Income as a Driver towards Better Socio-economic Resilience? 35.3 Post-Growth and Degrowth as Responses to the Economic and Ecological Challenges in a Post-Corona World? part 5 Post-Corona Policy Design 36 Chances and Limits of Resilience The Development Paradox and the Increasing Danger of Man-made Disasters with Multi-sectoral Side Effects 37 Towards a Broader and More Integrated Policy of Future Preparedness Contributions from Selected Guiding Concepts 37.1 A Brief Outline of Three Contemporary Coping Concepts: Development, Sustainability, Resilience 37.2 Development versus Sustainability versus Resilience: Similarities, Fault Lines and Potential (Realistic) Complementarities 37.3 Collective Wisdom as the Missing Connecting Principle towards Multi-Resilience? 38 Fostering Local, National and International Paths towards Multi-resilience Leverage Points for Interrelated Social Change Bottom-up and Top-down 38.1 Education Programs for Individual Resilience 38.2 Bottom-up Transformational Impulses via Building Critical Masses for Positive Change 38.3 Experimental Prototyping Projects 38.4 Building Bridges between Subsystems 38.5 Methods of Communicative Complexity Management 38.6 Towards the Integration of Standards? part 6 Recommendations for a Multi-Resilient Post-Corona World 39 “Health Terror”? Towards an Adequate Framework for a Post-Corona Socio-political Philosophy “Resistance” and Power Critique Will Not Suffice 40 Seven Strategic Recommendations for Pro-positive Multi-resilient Policymaking in the Post-Corona World of Open Societies 40.1 Recommendation 1: Include Competency Development to Become a Crucial Part of the Education System 40.2 Recommendation 2: Strengthen European-Western Simulation Methodology and Strategic Foresight 40.3 Recommendation 3: Strengthen Future Anticipation Capacities and (Potentially) Their Integration. From the Futures Cone and the Futures Diamond to Futures Literacy 40.4 Recommendation 4: Improve Communication through “Complexity Workers” 40.5 Recommendation 5: Refine Multi-level Governance 40.6 Recommendation 6: Expand and Improve International Cooperation 40.7 Recommendation 7: Sharpen Global “Crisis Automatisms” and Interconnected Responsibility Patterns on the Way to Global Governance 41 Recommendations for Global Post-Corona Policymaking in an Increasingly Multipolar World 41.1 Five Policy Trajectories Proposed by the University of the United Nations – Leading to the Key Concept of “Futures Literacy” 41.2 The Forgotten Perspective: Instilling a More Encompassing and Trans-systemic Concept of Health and Healing? part 7 Outlook. The Coronavirus Legacy: A “New World” Ahead – or back to Business as Usual? 42 The (Productively) Ambiguous Post-Corona Vision A “New World” Ahead? 43 “Corona Positivism” The Global Pandemic as an Unprecedented “Chance” for Radical Transformation – or Even as the Epochal Example for What (Social) Art Should Achieve? 44 Corona as a Driver of Re-globalisation towards Post-Corona Globalisation 45 A Post-Corona Core Task Re-positioning the Open Systems of Europe and the West by the Means of Multi-resilience 46 An End to Geopolitical Rivalry? Not Likely – Despite Some Positive Signals 47 Back to Business as Usual - Systemic Improvements at the “Evo-devo” Interface? 48 Integrating the Obvious Post-Corona, Multi-Resilience and “Futures Literacy”: “Bring Together What belongs Together” 49 Corona and Emerging New Responsibility Patterns 50 Outlook: A Post-Corona World in the Making Towards Difficult, but Feasible Innovation – for the Sake of a More Pro-positive Re-globalisation  Afterword Manfred B. Steger Bibliographic References Index

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Book SynopsisCurrent textbooks provide a strong bio-medical view on epidemics. In this textbook, the bio-medical view will be extended to a human view including insights from humanities, social sciences. This extension challenges us all the more to combine the requirement of scientific objectivity with the subjectivity inherent to human life. In addition, the bio-medical view is deepened using knowledge of botanical epidemiology with respect to ‘evolutionary dynamics of pathogens’ and ‘epidemic spread of pathogens’. Bio-medical oriented students and senior scientists are invited to reflect on the multi-dimensional, subjective, character of epidemics. Reflections that may enable appropriate, human, management of epidemics.

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