Economics Books

Book SynopsisInspiring lessons on business and life from Frank Savage Frank Savage's is an unlikely success story. Raised in segregated Washington, DC, by his mother, a hairdresser and entrepreneur with little formal education, Savage's career has taken him around the world as a globetrotting financier.Table of ContentsForeword ix Prologue 1 Chapter 1 Too Much Money 9 Chapter 2 Getting In, Struggling Out, Getting Right 35 Chapter 3 La Savage, the Source and Inspiration 69 Chapter 4 The Journey to True Origins 99 Chapter 5 My Journey Deepens 127 Chapter 6 The Longer Road Home 147 Chapter 7 Africa Calls Once Again . . . 167 Chapter 8 Walking Over a Bridge Not Burned 203 Chapter 9 Sailing Lolita, Pulling It All Together 227 Epilogue 255 Lolita Racing Record 259 Acknowledgments 263 Index 265

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Book SynopsisA modern and accessible guide to the analysis of introductory time series data Featuring an organized and self-contained guide, Time Series Analysis provides a broad introduction to the most fundamental methodologies and techniques of time series analysis.Trade Review"This book offers a comprehensive overview of time series analysis...The focus throughout is on methodologies and techniques selected to help the reader develop a working knowledge of practical applications of time series methods... The author manages to incorporate a huge number of topics and his book verges on the encyclopedic...This is a book that would likely be of more use to a serious practitioner of time series analysis than anyone coming fresh to the subject." (Mathematical Association of America 29/03/2017)“The book has many merits, covering carefully standard basic vocabulary of recently developing time series analysis and presenting lots of illustrative examples of applications that are well organized for the reader who intends to use R libraries for numerical computation” Yuzo Hosoya, MathSciNet, Aug 2017Table of ContentsPreface xiii Acknowledgments xvii Acronyms xix 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Time Series Data 2 1.2 Random Variables and Statistical Modeling 16 1.3 Discrete-Time Models 22 1.4 Serial Dependence 22 1.5 Nonstationarity 25 1.6 Whiteness Testing 32 1.7 Parametric and Nonparametric Modeling 36 1.8 Forecasting 38 1.9 Time Series Modeling 38 1.10 Bibliographic Notes 39 Problems 39 2 Linear Processes 43 2.1 Definition 44 2.2 Stationarity 44 2.3 Invertibility 45 2.4 Causality 46 2.5 Representations of Linear Processes 46 2.6 Weak and Strong Dependence 49 2.7 ARMA Models 51 2.8 Autocovariance Function 56 2.9 ACF and Partial ACF Functions 57 2.10 ARFIMA Processes 64 2.11 Fractional Gaussian Noise 71 2.12 Bibliographic Notes 72 Problems 72 3 State Space Models 89 3.1 Introduction 90 3.2 Linear Dynamical Systems 92 3.3 State space Modeling of Linear Processes 96 3.4 State Estimation 97 3.5 Exogenous Variables 113 3.6 Bibliographic Notes 114 Problems 114 4 Spectral Analysis 121 4.1 Time and Frequency Domains 122 4.2 Linear Filters 122 4.3 Spectral Density 123 4.4 Periodogram 125 4.5 Smoothed Periodogram 128 4.6 Examples 130 4.7 Wavelets 136 4.8 Spectral Representation 138 4.9 Time-Varying Spectrum 140 4.10 Bibliographic Notes 145 Problems 145 5 Estimation Methods 151 5.1 Model Building 152 5.2 Parsimony 152 5.3 Akaike and Schwartz Information Criteria 153 5.4 Estimation of the Mean 153 5.5 Estimation of Autocovariances 154 5.6 Moment Estimation 155 5.7 Maximum-Likelihood Estimation 156 5.8 Whittle Estimation 157 5.9 State Space Estimation 160 5.10 Estimation of Long-Memory Processes 161 5.11 Numerical Experiments 178 5.12 Bayesian Estimation 180 5.13 Statistical Inference 184 5.14 Illustrations 189 5.15 Bibliographic Notes 193 Problems 194 6 Nonlinear Time Series 209 6.1 Introduction 210 6.2 Testing for Linearity 211 6.3 Heteroskedastic Data 212 6.4 ARCH Models 213 6.5 GARCH Models 216 6.6 ARFIMA-GARCH Models 218 6.7 ARCH(1) Models 220 6.8 APARCH Models 222 6.9 Stochastic Volatility 222 6.10 Numerical Experiments 223 6.11 Data Applications 225 6.12 Value at Risk 236 6.13 Autocorrelation of Squares 241 6.14 Threshold autoregressive models 247 6.15 Bibliographic Notes 252 Problems 253 7 Prediction 267 7.1 Optimal Prediction 268 7.2 One-Step Ahead Predictors 268 7.3 Multistep Ahead Predictors 275 7.4 Heteroskedastic Models 276 7.5 Prediction Bands 281 7.6 Data Application 287 7.7 Bibliographic Notes 289 Problems 289 8 Nonstationary Processes 295 8.1 Introduction 296 8.2 Unit Root Testing 297 8.3 ARIMA Processes 298 8.4 Locally Stationary Processes 301 8.5 Structural Breaks 326 8.6 Bibliographic Notes 331 Problems 332 9 Seasonality 337 9.1 SARIMA Models 338 9.2 SARFIMA Models 351 9.3 GARMA Models 353 9.4 Calculation of the Asymptotic Variance 355 9.5 Autocovariance Function 355 9.6 Monte Carlo Studies 359 9.7 Illustration 362 9.8 Bibliographic Notes 364 Problems 365 10 Time Series Regression 369 10.1 Motivation 370 10.2 Definitions 373 10.3 Properties of the LSE 375 10.4 Properties of the BLUE 376 10.5 Estimation of the Mean 379 10.6 Polynomial Trend 382 10.7 Harmonic Regression 386 10.8 Illustration: Air Pollution Data 388 10.9 Bibliographic Notes 392 Problems 392 11 Missing Values and Outliers 399 11.1 Introduction 400 11.2 Likelihood Function with Missing Values 401 11.3 Effects of Missing Values on ML Estimates 405 11.4 Effects of Missing Values on Prediction 407 11.5 Interpolation of Missing Data 410 11.6 Spectral Estimation with Missing Values 418 11.7 Outliers and Intervention Analysis 421 11.8 Bibliographic Notes 434 Problems 435 12 Non-Gaussian Time Series 441 12.1 Data Driven Models 442 12.2 Parameter Driven Models 452 12.3 Estimation 453 12.4 Data Illustrations 466 12.5 Zero-Inflated Models 477 12.6 Bibliographic Notes 483 Problems 483 Appendix A: Complements 487 A.1 Projection Theorem 488 A.2 Wold Decomposition 490 A.3 Bibliographic Notes 497 Appendix B: Solutions to Selected Problems 499 Appendix C: Data and Codes 557 References 559 Topic Index 573 Author Index 577

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Book SynopsisIntelligent Investing is first ever practical guide for investors on how to initiate and conduct a strategic planning exercise. Guy Fraser-Sampson explains the concepts and behavioural factors likely to be encountered, and shows how a clear understanding of an investor's strategic positioning flows naturally into good asset allocation practice.Trade Review'A fantastic guide to setting investment strategy, based on the practical experience of one of the world's leading experts in the field.' - Askar Karimullin, Kazakhstan Sovereign Wealth Fund 'Shows all too clearly how organisational and behavioural issues often get in the way of clear strategic thinking. A great read for anyone attempting to drive change or innovation in the investment field.' - Mark Baumgartner, PhD The Ford FoundationTable of Contents1. What is Strategy? 2. Strategy and Investment 3. Conducting the Process 4. What sort of investor are we? Different perspectives on liquidity and volatility 5. SWOT analysis for investors 6. What are we Trying to Achieve? 7. Asset Allocation: Theory and Practice 8. Asset Allocation in Practice 9. How to Access Asset Types: Selecting Passive and Active Managers 10. New Developments: Trend and Risk Factor Investing 11. Ten 'Do' and 'Don't' Guidelines 12. Concluding Thoughts: Where are we Going?

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Book SynopsisThe landscape of commodity markets has drastically changed in recent years. Once a market of refineries and mines, it has become the market of investment funds and commodity trading advisors. Given this transformation, are commodity investments still as beneficial as 20 or 30 years ago? This book is an attempt to answer these questions.Table of Contents1. Asset Allocation in Commodity Markets 2. Passive Investment Strategies in Commodity Markets 3. Active Investment Strategies in Commodity Markets 4. Financialization of Commodity Markets 5. Performance Measurement of Commodity Investments 6. Commodity Investments in Financialized Markets: a Study

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Book SynopsisThis book analyzes the recent development of Gulf capitalism through to the aftermath of the 2008 economic crisis. Situating the Gulf within the evolution of capitalism at a global scale, it presents a novel theoretical interpretation of this important region of the Middle East political economy.Trade Review"Hanieh's groundbreaking book argues that we should not view the Gulf Arab states as anomalies in the worldwide economy. Instead, he claims, the story of twentieth-century capitalism could not be told without recounting their central role: the 'global economy is part of the actual essence of the Gulf itself - the development of the global "appears" through the development of the Gulf.'" ... Within Middle Eastern studies, it provides a challenge to the rentier-state framework - the main paradigm for understanding state-society relations and economic development in the Gulf states-...The book is also a contribution toward understanding Gulf capitalist accumulation on a local and regional scale and the connections between Gulf capitalism and the trajectory of the world capitalist system. Lastly, its examination of over five hundred Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) companies, financial institutions, and projects provides a wealth of empirical data." - Arab Studies Journal "Hanieh's incisive analysis of the economic realties confronting the GCC and their correlation to the global market offers a fresh perspective on the economic woes of the contemporary world The author's estimation of the 2008 financial crisis and his constant emphasis on the 'interdependent' nature of global capital (with special reference to the GCC)_ compels the readers to understand capitalism as an enterprise that cannot sustain itself within the boundaries of the nation-state. While the specifics of the future might be uncertain, it remains clear that the class structuring of the Gulf states will remain oriented toward the accumulative tendencies of global capital." - American Journal of Islamic Social Sciences "Insightful, timely, and welcome...the analytical framework and substantial data he puts forward in the book will help readers map out the current and future processes of regional integration, class formations, and contradictions, and to situate these processes within the wider global political economy." - International Socialist Review "Capitalism and Class in the Gulf Arab States is the first work to be published in English that gives a full understanding of the formation and development of the Gulf capitalist class. Hanieh reminds the reader that the state was and is an essential tool in this process. The state is an essential feature of the economic rule of the class, and therefore of the constitution of the class itself. In other words, it is not a distinct or separate sphere that is external to the ruling class as the 'refiner state' theory pretends. This book allows the reader to see the important role played by GCC countries in the process of economic liberalization in the region, alongside other international institutions, and its increasing influence in the political economy of each country in the region." - Counterfire "The revolts across the Middle East have shaken the world and shown the sheer failure of standard interpretations of the region. Adam Hanieh has supplied us with a book that is desperately needed to shed prevailing stereotypes of the Arab states that dominate political debate and the academic literature alike. This is the most penetrating analysis of the contradictions of capitalism and class in the Gulf States available. It uncovers possible economic and political trajectories of these states like no other." - Greg Albo, Department of Political Science, York University, Toronto "Adam Hanieh investigates the ways in which the Gulf Arab oil monarchies are inserted in the global capitalist/imperialist system, assessing their economic function as well as the political-military status that is attached to this function. This remarkable scholarly study informed by a critical perspective is most topical indeed at a time when the Gulf monarchies confirm their role as the key stronghold of reaction in a region deeply shaken by a tremendous revolutionary wave." - Gilbert Achcar, Professor in Development Studies and International Relations, School of Oriental and African Studies, University of LondonTable of ContentsApproaching Class Formation in the Gulf Arab States The Political Economy of Post-War Capitalism and the Making of the Gulf The Development of Capitalism in the Gulf Cooperation Council Towards a Single Global Economy: 1991 to 2008 The Formation of Khaleeji Capital Khaleeji Capital and the Middle East Future Trajectories Appendix A: Khaleeji Capital Groups Appendix B: Ownership of the Largest GCC Banks

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Book SynopsisProviding a historical narrative of HRD from the beginning of human history through modern times, this book reveals the consistent interaction between the philosophies of the time, theories, and methods of people management and how these philosophies impact what is known as HRD today.Table of ContentsList of Figures List of Tables 1. Introduction to HRD History and Critical Thinking Theory 2. Early Human History 3. The Hellenic Period 4. 400 - 1800 AD: The Middle Ages, Renaissance and Enlightenment 5. The Industrial Revolution 6. World War II 7. 1950's - 1970's: The Rise of Organization Development 8. HRD in the Modern Era 9. Underlying Assumptions of HRD Theory and Practice 10. Critical Thinking in HRD: A Path Forward References

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