Economic forecasting Books

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Book SynopsisIn the decades after the Civil War, the world experienced monumental changes in industry, trade, and governance. As Americans faced this uncertain future, public debate sprang up over the accuracy and value of predictions, asking whether it was possible to look into the future with any degree of certainty. In Looking Forward, Jamie L. Pietruska uncovers a culture of prediction in the modern era, where forecasts became commonplace as crop forecasters, weather prophets, business forecasters, utopian novelists, and fortune-tellers produced and sold their visions of the future. Private and government forecasters competed for authority as well as for an audience and a single prediction could make or break a forecaster's reputation. Pietruska argues that this late nineteenth-century quest for future certainty had an especially ironic consequence: it led Americans to accept uncertainty as an inescapable part of both forecasting and twentieth-century economic and cultural life. Drawing together histories of science, technology, capitalism, environment, and culture, Looking Forward explores how forecasts functioned as new forms of knowledge and risk management tools that sometimes mitigated, but at other times exacerbated, the very uncertainties they were designed to conquer. Ultimately Pietruska shows how Americans came to understand the future itself as predictable, yet still uncertain.

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Book SynopsisTable of ContentsAcknowledgments Preface I: Theories and Evidence 1: Macroeconomics and Business Cycles: An Overview 2: Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective 3: Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U.S. Economic Fluctuations 4: Cyclical Aspects of Cost and Price Movements 5: Research during the First 50 Years of the National Bureau II: History and Measurement 6: How Trends and Fluctuations Are Observed, Modeled, and Simulated: An Introduction 7: Business Cycles and Growth 8: The Regularity of Business Cycles 9: Econometric Model Simulations and the Cyclical Characteristics of the Economy III: Indicators 10: Cyclical Indicators: Structure, Significance, and Uses 11: Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators 12: Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes Phillip Braun IV: Forecasting 13: On Short-Term Predictions of General Economic Conditions 14: An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Aggregate Forecasts 15: The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts 16: Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts 17: Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction Louis A. Lambros 18: The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting References Author Index Subject Index

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Book SynopsisTrade Review"If you think hot trends just whirl up like dust storms, think again: This fascinating book pulls the curtain back on an entire industry devoted to shaping our perceptions of what matters—and with it, the future itself."—Fred Turner, author of The Democratic Surround: Multimedia and American Liberalism from World War II to the Psychedelic Sixties "On Trend is wide-ranging, yet it holds together through a fusion of scholarly reconstruction and engaged critique. Such a combination is often intended but seldom so well executed." --Scott McLemee, Inside Higher Ed

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Book SynopsisWhile dozens of books and articles have predicted the near-certainty of China's rise to global supremacy, this book boldly counters such widely-held assumptions. It brings to light the daunting array of challenges that today confront China, as well as the inadequacy of the responses.Trade Review"'Timothy Beardson is a brilliant entrepreneur and investment strategist and his observations about China are sobering - and a must-read for the well-informed.' (Steve Forbes, Chairman and Editor-in-Chief, Forbes Media) 'A thoughtful reconsideration of China's actual place in the new world order, based on reality rather than fanciful speculation.' (Kirkus Reviews)"

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Book SynopsisThe recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken.Table of ContentsTable of Figures xi Foreword xiii Preface xv Acknowledgements xxv Section 1 ‘Why?’ 1 Chapter 1 Part 1 Why Change? Everyone Knows the Trouble I’ve Seen 3 Chapter 1 Part 2 Forecasting Disease, the Symptoms and the Remedy 17 Section 2 Principles 33 Chapter 2 Mastering Purpose – the Cassandra Paradox 35 Chapter 3 Mastering Time – Delay and Decision 57 Chapter 4 Mastering Models: Mapping the Future 87 Chapter 5 Mastering Measurement – Learning to Love Error 125 Chapter 6 Mastering Risks: How the Paranoid Survive 151 Section 3 ‘Praxis’ 179 Chapter 7 Mastering Process: The Mother of Good Fortune 183 Theme #1 Recipe for success: tips and traps 183 Theme #2 Coordination in a complex system: how different can we be? 198 Theme #3 ‘Whose job is it anyway?’ Roles and responsibilities 210 Section 4 Transformation 219 Chapter 8 Implementation: Beginnings and Endings 221 Chapter 9 Beyond Forecasting: The Biggest Barrier 233 Chapter 10 Beyond Budgeting: A New Management Model? 243 Chapter 11 Conclusion: Reconnection 257 Glossary 261 Appendix 1 – Design Principles: A Summary 267 Appendix 2 – Important Concepts in Systems and Cybernetics 275 References 289 Index 295

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Book SynopsisThe text has been thoroughly updated to incorporate recent developments and includes three major new chapters on: time series modelling in the financial economics area, the Harvey approach to structural time series modelling and cointegration, and panel data models and non--stationary time series.Table of ContentsPreface. 1. Introduction and Overview. Some Initial Concepts. Forecasting. Outline of the Book. 2. Short- and Long-run Models. Long-run Models. Stationary and Non-stationary Time Series. Spurious Regressions. Cointegration. Short-run Models. Conclusion. 3. Testing for Unit Roots. The Dickey–Fuller Test. Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test. Power and Level of Unit Root Tests. Structural Breaks and Unit Root Tests. Seasonal Unit Roots. Structural Breaks and Seasonal Unit Root Tests. Periodic Integration and Unit Root-testing. Conclusion on Unit Root Tests. 4. Cointegration in Single Equations. The Engle–Granger (EG) Approach. Testing for Cointegration with a Structural Break. Alternative Approaches. Problems with the Single Equation Approach. Estimating the Short-run Dynamic Model. Seasonal Cointegration. Periodic Cointegration. Asymmetric Tests for Cointegration. Conclusion s. 5. Cointegration in Multivariate Systems. The Johansen Approach. Testing the Order of Integration of the Variables. Formulation of the Dynamic Model. Testing for Reduced Rank. Deterministic Components in the Multivariate Model. Testing of Weak Exogeneity and VECM with Exogenous I (l) Variables. Testing for Linear Hypotheses on Cointegration Relations. Testing for Unique Cointegration Vectors. Joint Tests of Restrictions on α and β Seasonal Unit Roots. Seasonal Cointegration. Conclusions. Appendix 1: Programming in SHAZAM. 6. Modelling the Short-run Multivariate System. Introduction. Estimating the Long-run Cointegration Relationships. Parsimonious VECM. Conditional PVECM. Structural Modelling. Structural Macroeconomic Modelling. 7. Panel Data Models and Cointegration. Introduction. Panel Data and Modelling Techniques. Panel Unit Root Tests. Testing for Cointegration in Panels. Estimating Panel Cointegration Models. Conclusion on Testing for Unit Roots and Cointegration in Panel Data. 8. Modelling and Forecasting Financial Times Series. Introduction. ARCH and GARCH. Multivariate GARCH. Estimation and Testing. An Empirical Application of ARCH and GARCH Models. ARCH-M. Asymmetric GARCH Models. Integrated and Fractionally Integrated GARCH Models. Conditional Heteroscedasticity, Unit Roots and Cointegration. Forecasting with GARCH Models. Further Methods for Forecast Evaluation. Conclusions on Modelling and Forecasting Financial Time Series. Appendix: Cointegration Analysis Using the Johansen Technique: A Practitioner’s Guide to PcGive 10.1. Statistical Appendix. References. Index.

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Book SynopsisThe definitive guide to technical analysis... written from a trader's perspective With the keen insight and perspective that have made him a market legend, Jack D. Schwager explores, explains, and examines the application of technical analysis in futures trading.Table of ContentsPartial table of contents: CHART ANALYSIS. Charts: Forecasting Tool or Folklore? Trends. Trading Ranges. Chart Patterns. Is Chart Analysis Still Valid? Setting Objectives and Other Position Exit Criteria. Linking Contracts for Long-Term Chart Analysis: Nearest Versus Continuous Futures. REAL-WORLD CHART ANALYSIS. Real-World Chart Analysis. OSCILLATORS AND CYCLES. Cycle Analysis of the Futures Markets (R. Mogey & J. Schwager). TRADING SYSTEMS AND PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT. Examples of Original Trading Systems. Testing and Optimizing Trading Systems. PRACTICAL TRADING GUIDELINES. Eighty-Two Trading Rules and Market Observations. Index.

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Book SynopsisShe''s been compared to a beacon shining through the fog. Her thorough research, meticulous analyses, and extraordinarily accurate forecasts have won her the respect and admiration of colleagues up and down the Street. A protégée of the master technical analyst Alan Shaw, she is currently Senior Technical Analyst, Vice President for Research at Salomon Smith Barney. But what some insiders remember most about Louise Yamada is that in 1994 she was among the very first to predict the greatest bull market of the twentieth century. In Market Magic, Louise Yamada shares her formidable skills to look beyond the daily noise of trading and help guide your investments through the perils and uncertainties of the next ten years. At a time when classical forecasting techniques seem to be failing us and even the professionals are at a loss as to which way the markets will go, Yamada marshals her experience and talent to offer on-target analyses of today''s macro forces and specific trend foTrade Review"In analyzing the current bull market, you can miss the forest for the trees unless you take a step back and look at the big picture, writes Louise Yamada in MARKET MAGIC. And that's exactly what Yamada does in this book-she conducts an in-depth analysis of the current market."-Registered Representative "Few on Wall Street can match Louise Yamada for analytical ability as well as insight on the big issues affecting investors. We are fortunate she is willing to share the results of her thoughts and research with us."-Mark Haines, CNBC "Louise Yamada has a special talent for anticipating future financial trends. Market Magic is a must read for investors as we prepare for the exciting decade ahead." -David Cork, F.C.S.I., author of The Pig and the Python: How to Prosper from the Aging Baby Boom "Market Magic demystifies the voodoo of technical analysis and relates technical indicators to the real world of stocks and bonds and demographic and economic trends worldwide."-Oscar S. Schafer, General Partner, Cumberland Associates; Member, Barron's RoundtableTable of ContentsTHE EVOLUTION OF DISCOVERY: TECHNICAL UNDERPINNINGS OF THE GREATEST BULL MARKET OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY. U.S. Bull Market Extension? There Is Historic Precedent. The Two-Tier Market Thesis. Recent History/Market Projections. NEW HORIZONS FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY. Changing Demographics. Demographics and the Stock Market. The Long-Wave Cycle: A Brief Consideration. The New Technological Era: Observations and Conceptual Thoughts. Old-Tech and New-Tech: Need for New Sectors. Revisiting the Capital/Consumer Ratio. Looking for Inflation in All the Wrong Places. New Agricultural Direction for the United States. UNSCRAMBLING THE PUZZLES. Asking Questions. New Economic Perceptions. Stock Market Implications and Expectations. CONCLUSION. What Lies Ahead: Other Emerging Forces at Work. Notes. Index.

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Book SynopsisWall Street insiders have long respected Louise Yamada for her extraordinarily accurate predictions and for the meticulously researched reports that are the foundation of her forecasting methods. In this book she reveals the secrets behind her market predictions and analysis.Table of ContentsTHE EVOLUTION OF DISCOVERY: TECHNICAL UNDERPINNINGS OF THE GREATEST BULL MARKET OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY. U.S. Bull Market Extension? There Is Historic Precedent. The Two-Tier Market Thesis. Recent History/Market Projections. NEW HORIZONS FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY. Changing Demographics. Demographics and the Stock Market. The Long-Wave Cycle: A Brief Consideration. The New Technological Era: Observations and Conceptual Thoughts. Old-Tech and New-Tech: Need for New Sectors. Revisiting the Capital/Consumer Ratio. Looking for Inflation in All the Wrong Places. New Agricultural Direction for the United States. UNSCRAMBLING THE PUZZLES. Asking Questions. New Economic Perceptions. Stock Market Implications and Expectations. CONCLUSION. What Lies Ahead: Other Emerging Forces at Work. Notes. Index.

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Book SynopsisThis text brings together the key quantitative concepts and techniques which are central for the contemporary management of the marketing function. It also examines techniques drawn from other management disciplines, such as financial management.Table of ContentsSTATISTICAL ANALYSIS, DEMAND ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN MARKETING. Data Collection and Sampling. Further Statistical Techniques. Demand Analysis. Forecasting. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS, OPERATIONS AND CONTROL SYSTEMS. Financial Techniques. Budgeting and Control. Decision Techniques. Operations Management. FUTURE TRENDS AND CONCLUSION. Future Trends. Conclusion. Appendices. Index.

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Book SynopsisAn economic historian and demographer considers what the world, freed from material need, will look like

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Book SynopsisThe geography of services is no longer of local or national significance: it now embraces the international stage. Service industries have enabled, and themselves become participants in, world trade. Although this is not a new role, during the 1980s they have become a much more active ingredient in the process of social and economic change.Trade Review"The book's value lies in its wide-sweeping survey of what is known about the entire field... a very useinformative book that can serve as a text for economic geographers, but which also deserves to be read by those with international interests from other disciplines. His work demonstrates that economic geographers have much to contribute in this area, especially in their handling and analysis of the data on international services." Service Industries Journal "The book's value lies in its wide-sweeping survey of what is known about the entire field... a very useful classroom tool for those concerned with exposing students to a critical area of investigation that remains under-researched." Journal of Economic LiteratureTable of Contents1. The Rise of Services: Some Factual and Theoretical Perspectives. Introduction. Services: Definition and Classification. The Recent Expansion of Services. Explanations for Growth. Understatement of Role of Services. 2. The Tradability of Services. TRadable and Non-Tradable Services. Information Technology and Tradability of Services. Transport Technology and the Tradability of Services. Service Multinationals and the Tradability of Services. Case Studies of the Development of Service MNE'S. Retail Internationalisation. Government Influences on the Tradability of Services. Changes in Consumer Requirements and Expectations. 3. International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in Services. Introduction. Measuring Trade in Services. An Outline of Global Trade in Services. The Role of Comparative Advantage. Foreign Direct Investment in Services. International Trade in Services and the Developing Countries. Developing Country Service MNE's. Eastern Europe, the Commonwealth of Independent States and International Trade in Services. Liberalizing International Trade in Services. 4. Services and the Global System of Cities. Services and the Global Urban System: Some Explanations. Services and Cities in the Global Urban System. Services and the Global Urban System: Some Examples. 5. Internationalization of Services and Restructuring of Cities. Services and Employment Restructuring in Large Metropolitan Areas: Some Comparisons. Impacts on the Urban Property Market: Offices. Changes in the Location of Services Within Cities. 6. Services in the World Economy: Some Reflections. Services in the 1990s: Victims of the Decade of Optimism?. Service-Dominated Economies: How Desirable?. Is the Globalization of Services inevitable?. Unfulfilled Potential of Telecommunications?. References. Further Reading. Bibliography. Index.

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Book SynopsisIn this prestigious edited collection, an international group of leading contributors to the law of regulation take stock of the erosion of belief in centralised planning and command and control regulation which has accompanied the collapse of communism. They explore the new directions in regulatory theory which must now be pursued.Table of ContentsIntroduction: Reconceptualizing Regulation in the Era of Globalization: Sol Picciotto. 1. Rewards and Regulation: John Braithwaite. 2. Values and Purpose in Government: Central-local Relations in Regulatory Perspective: Peter Vincent-Jones. 3. Private Regulation of the Public Sector: A Neglected Facet of Contemporary Governance: Colin Scott. 4. Using Private-Public Linkages to Regulate Environmental Conflicts: The Case of International Construction Contracts: Oren Perez. 5. Competition Law in the International Domain: Networks as a New Form of Governance: Imelda Maher. 6. Technical Cooperation and the International Coordination of Patentability of Biotechnological Inventions: Louise Davies. 7. Regulatory Conversations. Julia Black. 8. The Emotional Dimension in Legal Regulation: Bettina Lange.

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Book SynopsisIntroduces an important method for estimating correlations for large systems of assets: Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC). This title demonstrates the role of correlations in financial decision making, and addresses the economic underpinnings and theoretical properties of correlations and their relation to other measures of dependence.Trade Review"No doubt much more literature will develop in this area. Professor Engle has done a service by laying out how his mind is moving and thinking at the current time."--Peter Tompkins, The ActuaryTable of ContentsIntroduction vii Chapter 1: Correlation Economics 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 How Big Are Correlations? 3 1.3 The Economics of Correlations 6 1.4 An Economic Model of Correlations 9 1.5 Additional Influences on Correlations 13 Chapter 2: Correlations in Theory 15 2.1 Conditional Correlations 15 2.2 Copulas 17 2.3 Dependence Measures 21 2.4 On the Value of Accurate Correlations 25 Chapter 3: Models for Correlation 29 3.1 The Moving Average and the Exponential Smoother 30 3.2 Vector GARCH 32 3.3 Matrix Formulations and Results for Vector GARCH 33 3.4 Constant Conditional Correlation 37 3.5 Orthogonal GARCH 37 3.6 Dynamic Conditional Correlation 39 3.7 Alternative Approaches and Expanded Data Sets 41 Chapter 4: Dynamic Conditional Correlation 43 4.1 DE-GARCHING 43 4.2 Estimating the Quasi-Correlations 45 4.3 Rescaling in DCC 48 4.4 Estimation of the DCC Model 55 Chapter 5: DCC Performance 59 5.1 Monte Carlo Performance of DCC 59 5.2 Empirical Performance 61 Chapter 6: The MacGyver Method 74 Chapter 7: Generalized DCC Models 80 7.1 Theoretical Specification 80 7.2 Estimating Correlations for Global Stock and Bond Returns 83 Chapter 8: FACTOR DCC 88 8.1 Formulation of Factor Versions of DCC 88 8.2 Estimation of Factor Models 93 Chapter 9: Anticipating Correlations 103 9.1 Forecasting 103 9.2 Long-Run Forecasting 108 9.3 Hedging Performance In-Sample 111 9.4 Out-of-Sample Hedging 112 9.5 Forecasting Risk in the Summer of 2007 117 Chapter 10: Credit Risk and Correlations 122 Chapter 11: Econometric Analysis of the DCC Model 130 11.1 Variance Targeting 130 11.2 Correlation Targeting 131 11.3 Asymptotic Distribution of DCC 134 Chapter 12: Conclusions 137 References 141 Index 151

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Book SynopsisThe crash of 2008 revealed that the world's central banks had failed to offset the financial imbalances that led to the crisis, and lacked the tools to respond effectively. This title provides an insider's look into how central banks have evolved and why they are critical to the functioning of market economies.Trade ReviewNamed one of Financial Times (FT.com)'s Books of the Year in Nonfiction Round-Up in the Business & Economics list for 2010 "[T]he depth of its analysis will make Banking on the Future an important source of insights for years to come."--Ed Crooks, Financial Times "The best assessment yet of the role played by the leading western central banks--the U.S. Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of England--in the run-up to the financial crisis and beyond, from two former insiders at the top level of UK policymaker."--Financial Times (FT Critics Pick 2010) "Buy the book with confidence."--Jane Fuller, Financial World "Books on central banking usually vie with pills as sleep inducers, but Banking on the Future: The Fall and Rise of Central Banking is actually a page-turner."--Andrew Allentuck, National Post "In this forensic and engaging overview, Susan Hough presents a frank, entertaining and personal review of the history of ideas, practice, personalities and experience in the science of earthquake prediction. Although Hough is a respected scientist, she takes a journalist's viewpoint here, not shying away from legitimate criticism of those she regards as friends, and taking on the credulous at the edge of, or even beyond, the mainstream scientific."--Ian Main, Times Higher Education "[A] valuable, accessible volume... This clear, nontechnical guide on the present and future of central banking from two eminent policy makers could not have come at a better time."--Choice "A better title for this book would have been: All You Ever Wanted to Know About Central Banking and More... Davies and Green provide much to inform and interest diverse audiences...[I]t's a book that practitioners and students of central banking need to have on their shelf."--Management Today "We get an insider's view of the nuts and bolts of central banking, but not so inside that the authors are uncritical. They readily identify the pressure to change regulations or advice when regulators feel under pressure to display expertise in new issues... These are snippets of insight that only critical insiders know how to capture."--Dick Bryan, Australian Review of Public AffairsTable of ContentsPreface vii Abbreviations ix Introduction 1 Chapter One: What Is Central Banking and Why Is It Important? 9 Chapter Two: Monetary Stability 23 Chapter Three: Financial Stability 52 Chapter Four: Financial Infrastructure 90 Chapter Five: Asset Prices 115 Chapter Six: Structure, Status, and Accountability 141 Chapter Seven: Europe: A Special Case 182 Chapter Eight: Central Banking in Emerging Market Countries 212 Chapter Nine: Financial Resources, Costs, and Efficiency 236 Chapter Ten: International Cooperation 252 Chapter Eleven: Leadership 270 Chapter Twelve: An Agenda for Change 285 Afterword 297 Notes 301 Index 317

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Book SynopsisEconometric models are widely used in the creation and evaluation of economic policy in the public and private sectors. This book addresses the critical earlier stage of model development, the point at which potential models are inherently incomplete.Trade Review"This book is original and powerful. It develops a Bayesian paradigm that embraces the reality of applied modeling, in which 'discoveries' of things previously unimagined are made regularly. It will be of immediate interest to all economists and statisticians who want to push Bayesian principles toward innovative practice (and who doesn't?)."—Francis X. Diebold, University of Pennsylvania"How do we know whether a statistical model is good enough for a particular economic research problem? To answer this question, John Geweke introduces the concept of incomplete models, showing how they can be effective tools for model building. This book is a significant contribution to econometrics—and a pleasure to read."—Richard Paap, Erasmus University Rotterdam"This excellent book seamlessly links many important econometric methods, models, and concepts."—Gary Koop, University of StrathclydeTable of ContentsSeries Editors' Introduction vii Preface ix Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Chapter 2: The Bayesian Paradigm 7 2.1 Complete Models 10 2.2 Model Comparison and Averaging 16 2.3 Simulation 19 2.4 Model Evaluation 23 Chapter 3: Prior Predictive Analysis and Model Evaluation 34 3.1 Data and Models 35 3.2 Prior Predictive Analysis 47 3.3 Comparison with an Incomplete Model 71 3.4 Appendix: A Gaussian Copula for Evaluating Predictive Densities of Vector Functions of Interest 84 Chapter 4: Incomplete Structural Models 86 4.1 The Essential Elements of DSGE Models 88 4.2 Strong Econometric Interpretation 95 4.3 Weak Econometric Interpretation 98 4.4 Minimal Econometric Interpretation 109 4.5 Implications for Structural Modeling 118 Chapter 5: An Incomplete Model Space 122 5.1 Context and Motivation 123 5.2 Pools of Two Models 130 5.3 Examples of Two-Model Pools 135 5.4 Pools of Multiple Models 142 5.5 Multiple-Model Pools: An Example 150 5.6 Pooling and Model Improvement 155 5.7 Consequences of an Incomplete Model Space 158 References 161

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