Econometrics and economic statistics Books

Book SynopsisProbability comes of age with this, the first dictionary of probability and its applications in English, which supplies a guide to the concepts and vocabulary of this rapidly expanding field. Besides the basic theory of probability and random processes, applications covered here include financial and insurance mathematics, operations research (including queueing, reliability, and inventories), decision and game theory, optimization, time series, networks, and communication theory, as well as classic problems and paradoxes. The dictionary is reliable, stable, concise, and cohesive. Each entry provides a rigorous definition, a sketch of the context, and a reference pointing the reader to the wider literature. Judicious use of figures makes complex concepts easier to follow without oversimplifying. As the only dictionary on the market, this will be a guiding reference for all those working in, or learning, probability together with its applications.Trade Review'To construct a dictionary about such an enormous field is a daunting task, and David Stirzaker deserves high praise, first for even attempting to do so, and second for the success he has achieved. A dictionary's usefulness depends on its organisation as well as on the quality of the individual entries, and this book's structure is simple and logical: two initial pages list the abbreviations and symbols, then the main body of 3000-odd entries with easy-to-use cross-referencing, ending with an appendix of probability distributions … I shall be delighted to possess this authoritative tome. It will sit alongside Abramowitz and Steguns' Handbook of Mathematical Functions as a reliable source of enlightenment.' John Haigh, University of SussexTable of ContentsPreface; Table of distributions; The dictionary.

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Book SynopsisA novel book that argues that, contrary to received wisdom, some adverse selection in insurance markets is beneficial to society as a whole. It is for all those interested in public policy arguments about insurance and discrimination: policymakers, academics, actuaries, underwriters, disability activists, geneticists and other medical professionals.Trade Review'Guy Thomas challenges the orthodox views held by the insurance industry, actuaries, and economists concerning the problem of adverse selection. He makes his case that a little adverse selection is actually a good thing in a sensible, pragmatic, and compelling manner. His critical insights about the debates on restricting risk classification in insurance should be essential reading for policy makers.' Michael Hoy, University of Guelph, Canada'Despite dramatic warnings, insurance companies continue to prosper despite bans on gender rating, genetic testing, racial and other discriminations in setting policy terms. This thought-provoking book explains why. The author makes a convincing case for even tighter regulation of allowable risk classifications to enhance the welfare of society of a whole - especially timely now as 1-in-5 proposers for life insurance are not accepted at standard rates.' Shane Whelan, FFA, FSAI, Former Managing Editor of the British Actuarial Journal'Actuaries traditionally see nothing but danger in adverse selection. Guy Thomas, an actuary himself, sees opportunity. Using the concept of loss coverage, Thomas challenges the conventional wisdom of how economists model insurance markets, much of which, he sets out to show, is more myth than reality. Lucidly written and sure to get the reader thinking afresh.' Angus Macdonald, Heriot Watt University, Scotland'This is a serious book which challenges some of the conventional thinking of actuaries and economists about adverse selection in insurance, and does so with justification; they would do well to take the author's views into account. It can also be read with profit by others including insurance managers, academics, and those responsible for public policy.' David Wilkie, InQA Limited and Heriot Watt University, Scotland'This is a book that is full of common sense. Thomas provides important and, what will be to many, controversial recommendations to curtail [insurers'] use of certain characteristics of individuals for purposes of differential pricing. … It is important to take seriously the criticisms of both insiders and outsiders to strengthen both the application and development of economics or any other social science. His criticisms are very well thought out.' Michael Hoy, Annals of Actuarial Science'In summary, Loss Coverage offers policymakers, academics, professionals, students, and other interested parties useful insight into the 'problem' of adverse selection. Thomas employs simple and timely real-world examples to make the concepts of adverse selection, loss coverage, and risk classification more understandable and relevant for policy decisions, offering a path toward mitigating concerns over unfair discrimination while increasing insurance market efficiency.' William L. Ferguson, Journal of Risk and InsuranceTable of ContentsPart I. Introduction: 1. The central ideas of this book; 2. Adverse selection: a history of exaggeration; Part II. Loss Coverage: 3. Introduction to loss coverage; 4. Basic mathematics of loss coverage; 5. Further mathematics of loss coverage; 6. Partial risk classification, separation and inclusivity; Part III. Further Aspects of Risk Classification: 7. A taxonomy of objections to risk classification; 8. Empirical evidence on adverse selection; 9. Myths of insurance rhetoric; 10. Myths of insurance economics; 11. Contexts where adverse selection may be stronger; 12. Risk classification and moral hazard; 13. Risk classification and big data; Part IV. Conclusion: 14. Summary and suggestions; Appendix A. Alternative demand functions; Appendix B. Multiple equilibria: a technical curiosity; References; Index.

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Book SynopsisAt the intersection between statistical physics and rigorous econometric analysis, this powerful new framework sheds light on how innovation and competition shape the growth and decline of companies and industries. Analyzing various sources of data including a unique micro level database which collects historic data on the sales of more than 3,000 firms and 50,000 products in 20 countries, the authors introduce and test a model of innovation and proportional growth, which relies on minimal assumptions and accounts for the empirically observed regularities. Through a combination of extensive stochastic simulations and statistical tests, the authors investigate to what extent their simple assumptions are falsified by empirically observable facts. Physicists looking for application of their mathematical and modelling skills to relevant economic problems as well as economists interested in the explorative analysis of extensive data sets and in a physics-orientated way of thinking will findTrade Review'This is a superb and fascinating book. The distribution of firms' growth rates exhibits a large number of regularities, including some that are very hard to explain. The authors are pioneers in that enterprise, combining empirical and theoretical work. This team of economists and physicists provides a model for a future way to do economics.' Xavier Gabaix, Pershing Square Professor of Economics and Finance, Harvard University'The Rise and Fall of Business Firms offers a lucid reconstruction and extension of the exciting developments that fundamentally reshaped our understanding of how firms grow and evolve, brought to you by the scientists responsible for the key discoveries. A must for anyone interested in the deep laws that govern economic processes.' Albert-László Barabási, Robert Gray Dodge Professor of Network Science, Northeastern University'There is a long tradition of physicists being interested in and contributing to economics. That tradition continues here in The Rise and Fall of Business Firms. The book is based on generalized proportional growth models for the dynamics and stochastics of the growth and decline of business firms. For further studies, the book points out where more detailed specific inter-related complexities (such as among products, markets, and technologies) can be incorporated. The theoretical analysis paired with empirical data provides valuable insight for firms to understand their past trajectory and future choices.' Michael F. Schlesinger, Office of Naval ResearchTable of ContentsPreface; 1. Introduction; 2. Empirical regularities; 3. Innovation and the growth of business firms: a stochastic framework; 4. Testing our predictions; 5. Testing our assumptions; 6. Conclusions; 7. Appendices; References; Author index; Subject index.

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Book SynopsisThis book presents eleven classic papers by the late Professor Suzanne Scotchmer with introductions by leading economists and legal scholars. This book introduces Scotchmer's life and work; analyses her pioneering contributions to the economics of patents and innovation incentives, with a special focus on the modern theory of cumulative innovation; and describes her pioneering work on law and economics, evolutionary game theory, and general equilibrium/club theory. This book also provides a self-contained introduction to students who want to learn more about the various fields that Professor Scotchmer worked in, with a particular focus on patent incentives and cumulative innovation.Trade Review'Suzanne Scotchmer left us a remarkable legacy: highly original, deep, rigorous work on the economics of innovation, club theory and game theory. This book is a fitting tribute to her scholarship and to Suzanne as a person. It should be read by everyone with an interest in microeconomic theory.' Jerry R. Green, John Leverett Professor in the University, Harvard University'This is an invaluable volume, which will be on the bookshelf of every IP economist and legal scholar. It contains many of Suzanne Scotchmer's classical papers, often with an introduction by leading scholars, as well as very touching personal souvenirs from her friends and colleagues. A fitting tribute to this exceptional woman I was lucky to count as a friend.' Jean Tirole, Chairman, Toulouse School of Economics, FranceTable of Contents1. Introduction; 2. Threads in the tapestry; 3. Innovation theory (I): cumulative innovation; 4. Innovation theory (II): law and economics; 5. Clubs; 6. Evolutionary game theory; 7. Public policy; 8. Living legacy; 9. Epilogue.

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Book SynopsisThis state-of-the-art account unifies material developed in journal articles over the last 35 years, with two central thrusts: It describes a broad class of system models that the authors call ''stochastic processing networks'' (SPNs), which include queueing networks and bandwidth sharing networks as prominent special cases; and in that context it explains and illustrates a method for stability analysis based on fluid models. The central mathematical result is a theorem that can be paraphrased as follows: If the fluid model derived from an SPN is stable, then the SPN itself is stable. Two topics discussed in detail are (a) the derivation of fluid models by means of fluid limit analysis, and (b) stability analysis for fluid models using Lyapunov functions. With regard to applications, there are chapters devoted to max-weight and back-pressure control, proportionally fair resource allocation, data center operations, and flow management in packet networks. Geared toward researchers and grTrade Review'The deep and rich theory of stochastic processing networks has served as the analytical foundation for the study of communication networks, cloud computing systems, and manufacturing networks. This book by two of the pioneers of the theory presents an authoritative and comprehensive treatment of the topic, and will serve as an important reference to researchers in the area.' R. Srikant, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign'A system of interconnected resources can become overloaded and unstable even though each of its individual resources has the capacity to meet the demands on it. This striking observation, first made thirty years ago, has stimulated a major field of research. This book, written by two of the pioneers and leading researchers in the field, is a clear and authoritative account of the state-of-the-art.' Frank Kelly, University of Cambridge'This book provides an elegant and unified exposition of the general modeling framework of stochastic processing networks (SPNs) and associated theory of stability using fluid models. Much of this material was only previously available in dispersed journal articles. Adopting a continuous-time Markov chain description for SPNs, valid under fairly general assumptions on arrivals, service times and controls, enables a self-contained, accessible treatment. An array of interesting examples and extensions, especially involving applications for telecommunication and data networks, enliven the volume. This monograph will be an invaluable premier resource for graduate students and researchers in computer science, electrical and industrial engineering, applied mathematics and operations management interested in theory and applications of stochastic processing networks.' Ruth J. Williams, University of California, San DiegoTable of Contents1. Introduction; 2. Stochastic processing networks; 3. Markov representations; 4. Extensions and complements; 5. Is stability achievable?; 6. Fluid limits, fluid equations and positive recurrence; 7. Fluid equations that characterize specific policies; 8. Proving fluid model stability using Lyapunov functions; 9. Max-weight and back-pressure control; 10. Proportionally fair resource allocation; 11. Task allocation in server farms; 12. Multi-hop packet networks; Appendix A. Selected topics in real analysis; Appendix B. Selected topics in probability; Appendix C. Discrete-time Markov chains; Appendix D. Continuous-time Markov chains and phase-type distributions; Appendix E. Markovian arrival processes; Appendix F. Convergent square matrices.

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Book SynopsisThis book examines whether continuous-time models in frictionless financial economies can be well approximated by discrete-time models. It specifically looks to answer the question: in what sense and to what extent does the famous Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) continuous-time model of financial markets idealize more realistic discrete-time models of those markets? While it is well known that the BSM model is an idealization of discrete-time economies where the stock price process is driven by a binomial random walk, it is less known that the BSM model idealizes discrete-time economies whose stock price process is driven by more general random walks. Starting with the basic foundations of discrete-time and continuous-time models, David M. Kreps takes the reader through to this important insight with the goal of lowering the entry barrier for many mainstream financial economists, thus bringing less-technical readers to a better understanding of the connections between BSM and nearby discretTrade Review'He did it again - David M. Kreps, the unparalleled master of theory and exposition, now adds detailed discrete underpinnings to the Black-Scholes-Merton model. This beautifully written monograph forms bookends with the foundational Harrison-Kreps martingale theory of financial asset pricing. Every researcher and student in this field will want a copy!' Darrell Duffie, Dean Witter Distinguished Professor of Finance, Stanford University, California'In this monograph, David M. Kreps studies the question of how well, on economic grounds, classic models of Black, Scholes, and Merton idealize more comprehensible but less tractable discrete-time models. The book is a gold mine of mathematical tools for studying these issues.' Thomas J. Sargent, New York University and 2011 Nobel Laureate in Economics'David M. Kreps' previous work substantially generalized and clarified the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model. In this superb monograph, he turns to another basic question: to what extent is the BSM model an idealization of models with discrete but fast trading opportunities? His elegant answer is bound to stimulate a large follow-up literature.' José Scheinkman, Charles and Lynn Zhang Professor of Economics, Columbia University, New York'Continuous-time finance involves conceptual and technical complexities, which are often swept under the rug when the material is taught to economists. This book cuts through the complexities while providing excellent economic intuition and insight. It helps the reader develop a deeper appreciation of the foundations of modern finance theory, and of the connections between continuous- and discrete-time models in economics more generally.' Dimitri Vayanos, Professor of Finance, London School of Economics and Political ScienceTable of Contents1. Introduction; 2. Finitely many states and dates; 3. Countinuous time and the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) Model; 4. BSM as an idealization of binomial-random-walk economies; 5. Random walks that are not binomial; 6. Barlow's example; 7. The Pötzelberger-Schlumprecht example and asymptotic arbitrage; 8. Concluding remarks, Part I: how robust an idealization is BSM?; 9. Concluding remarks, Part II: continuous-time models as idealizations of discrete time; Appendix.

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Book SynopsisThis friendly guide is the companion you need to convert pure mathematics into understanding and facility with a host of probabilistic tools. The book provides a high-level view of probability and its most powerful applications. It begins with the basic rules of probability and quickly progresses to some of the most sophisticated modern techniques in use, including Kalman filters, Monte Carlo techniques, machine learning methods, Bayesian inference and stochastic processes. It draws on thirty years of experience in applying probabilistic methods to problems in computational science and engineering, and numerous practical examples illustrate where these techniques are used in the real world. Topics of discussion range from carbon dating to Wasserstein GANs, one of the most recent developments in Deep Learning. The underlying mathematics is presented in full, but clarity takes priority over complete rigour, making this text a starting reference source for researchers and a readable overvTrade Review'In addition to the usual topics of probability theory, a large portion of the book is devoted to presenting modern applications including Bayesian inference and MCMC. Students will appreciate the detailed derivations of formulas and the full solutions of problems. The text is interspersed with personal viewpoints and advice, which gives the book the flavour of a lively lecture by an enthusiastic teacher.' Robert Piché, Tampereen yliopisto, Finland'Adam Prügel-Bennett has created a great toolbox for all scientists working with models that take into account the uncertainty of the real world.' Wolfram Burgard, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Germany'This is a wonderful book, one that I wish I'd had when learning about probability. Indeed, there are lots of gems in there that I'm looking forward to reading about myself! The book is beautifully illustrated and refreshingly full of insight, without overly formal mathematical jargon. This book would appeal to students and researchers that are competent in mathematics and delight in gaining a deeper understanding of the subject, both from an intuitive and mathematical standpoint. It excels in demonstrating the wide applicability of probabilistic approaches to problem solving and modelling. This book deserves to be on the shelf of any researcher that uses probability to solve problems.' David Barber, University College London'The book can be very recommended all readers, who are interested in this field.' Ludwig Paditz, Theatre and Performance TheoryTable of Contents1. Introduction; 2. Survey of distributions; 3. Monte Carlo; 4. Discrete random variables; 5. The normal distribution; 6. Handling experimental data; 7. Mathematics of random variables; 8. Bayes; 9. Entropy; 10. Collective behavior; 11. Markov chains; 12. Stochastic processes; Appendix A. Answers to exercises; Appendix B. Probability distributions.

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Book SynopsisAn accessible guide to interrogating the many statistics we are bombarded by every day.

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Book Synopsis

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Book SynopsisCentral Bank Balance Sheet and Real Business Cycles argues that a deeper comprehension of changes to the central bank balance sheet can lead to more effective policymaking. Any transaction engaged in by the central bank—issuing currency, conducting foreign exchange operations, investing its own funds, intervening to provide emergency liquidity assistance and carrying out monetary policy operations—influences its balance sheet. Despite this, many central banks throughout the world have largely ignored balance sheet movements, and have instead focused on implementing interest rates. In this book, Mustapha Abiodun Akinkunmi highlights the challenges and controversies faced by central banks in the past and present when implementing policies, and analyzes the links between these policies, the central bank balance sheet, and the consequences to economies as a whole. He argues that the composition and evolution of the central bank balance sheet provides a valuable basis for understanding the needs of an economy, and is an important tool in developing strategies that would most effectively achieve policy goals. This book is an important resource for anyone interested in monetary policy or whose work is affected by the actions of the policies of central banks.Table of ContentsChapter 1: Global Genesis of the Central Bank  1 1.1 Origin of the Central Bank  1 1.2 Roles of the Central Bank  1 Questions  3 Chapter 2: Relevance of the Central Bank Balance Sheet  5 2.1 Understanding Relevance of Central Bank Balance Sheet in Functions of Economy  5 2.1.1 Similarities and Differences between a Company’s Balance Sheet and a Central Bank Balance Sheet  5 2.2 Trajectory Relevance of the Central Bank Balance Sheet  8 2.3 Externality of the Central Bank Balance Sheet Size  12 Questions  13 Chapter 3: Components of Central Bank Balance Sheets  15 3.1 Factors Influence the Reporting Frequency of Central Bank Balance Sheets  17 3.2 Components of Central Bank Assets and their Composition Analysis  18 3.2.1 Foreign Assets  18 3.3 Components of Central Bank Liabilities and their Composition Analysis  20 3.3.1 Banknotes  21 3.3.2 Commercial Bank Reserves  23 3.3.3 Capital  23 Questions  25 Chapter 4: Analytical Framework of Central Bank Balance Sheets  27 4.1 Structure of Central Bank Balance Sheets  27 4.2 Balance Sheet Indicators  28 4.2.1 Computation of Indicators  28 4.2.2 Significance of these Indicators  29 4.2.3 Underlying Assumptions of Four Indicators  29 4.3 Determinants of Central Bank Balance Sheet Composition  30 4.4 Classification of Central Bank Balance Sheet Components  31 4.5 Theoretical Landscape: Quantity Theory of Money versus Quality Theory of Money  32 4.5.1 Quantity Theory of Money  32 4.5.2 Quality Theory of Money  34 Questions  39 Chapter 5: Evolution of Central Bank Balance Sheets and Their Heterogeneous Dimensions  41 5.1 What Makes Central Bank Balance Sheets Special?  41 5.2 Historic Uses of Central Bank Balance Sheets  43 5.3 Composition of Central Bank Balance Sheet Liabilities  44 5.3.1 Central Bank Liabilities in Normal Times  45 5.3.2 Snapshot of Selected Economies’ Performance before the 2007–008 Crisis  46 5.3.3 Country-by-Country Snapshots of Economic Structure Since 2005  47 5.3.4 A Look at the Balance Sheets: 2005 and 2006  56 5.3.5 Snapshot of Selected Economies’ Performance during the 2007–008 Crisis  65 5.3.6 Snapshot of Selected Economies’ Performance Today  74 5.3.7 Central Bank Liabilities Today  78 Conclusion  86 Questions  86 Chapter 6: Composition of Central Bank Balance Sheet Assets  87 6.1 Central Bank Assets in Normal Times  87 6.1.1 Central Bank Assets of Emerging Economies  95 6.2 Central Bank Assets During the 2007–2008 Crisis  96 6.2.1 Central Bank Assets of Developing and Emerging Economies during the 2007–2008 Crisis  104 6.3 Central Bank Assets Today  104 6.3.1 Central Bank Assets of Emerging Economies Today  112 6.4 Asset-Side Composition and Economic Growth Nexus  115 6.4.1 Asset-Growth Nexus before the 2007–2008 Crisis  115 6.4.2 Asset-Growth Nexus during the 2007–2008 Crisis  116 6.4.3 Asset-Growth Nexus after the 2007–2008 Crisis  116 6.5 The Evolution of Central Bank Balance Sheets in the Future  117 Questions  119 Chapter 7: Financial Ratios of the Central Bank Balance Sheet  121 7.1 International Strength  121 7.2 External Strength Ratio  122 7.3 External Impact Ratio  123 7.4 Liquidity Ratios I, II, and III  123 7.4.1 Liquidity Ratio I  124 7.4.2 Liquidity Ratio II  124 7.4.3 Liquidity Ratio III  124 7.5 Equity Ratio  125 Questions  126 Chapter 8: Central Bank Operations  127 8.1 Types of Central Bank Operations  127 8.1.1 Supply Liquidity  127 8.1.2 Absorb Excess Liquidity  127 8.1.3 Asset Securities  128 8.1.4 Off Balance Swap  131 8.2 Central Bank Policy Instruments  131 8.2.1 Open Market Operations  131 8.2.2 Reserve Requirements  132 8.2.3 Discount Rate  134 8.2.4 Money Market Investor Funding Facility  135 8.2.5 Term Auction Facility  136 8.2.6 Commercial Paper Funding Facility  137 8.2.7 Primary Dealer Credit Facility  140 8.2.8 Recap of Policy Instruments  141 Questions  141 Chapter 9: Real Business Cycles  143 9.1 The RBC Model  143 9.1.1 Features of RBC Models  144 9.1.2 Basic Economic Factors  145 9.1.3 Fluctuations in the Business Cycle  145 9.1.4 Boom and Recession  145 9.2 Concept of RBCs Applied to Economic Policy  149 9.3 Techniques of Estimating RBCs  150 9.4 Methods to Estimate Potential Output and Output Gaps  151 9.4.1 Trending Methods  152 9.4.2 Univariate Filters Method  153 9.4.3 Multivariate Filters  156 9.4.4 Production Function Approaches  157 9.4.5 Criteria for Evaluating Different Methods of Estimating Potential Output  161 Questions  165 Chapter 10: Central Bank Balance Sheets and Real Business Cycles  167 10.1 Linkages between Central Bank Balance Sheets and Real Business Cycles  167 10.1.1 Monetary Policies and Business Cycles  168 10.1.2 Identifying an Acceptable Range of Values  169 10.1.3 Asset Transparency  170 10.2 Impact Evaluation of Central Bank Balance Sheets on Economic Environment  171 10.2.1 Central Bank Balance Sheets and Debt Management  172 10.2.2 Modeling Challenges Confronting Central Bank Balance Sheets  173 Questions  177 Chapter 11: Conclusion  179 Questions Left Unanswered: Areas for Future Research  180 Policy Debates  181 Appendix I: Central Bank Balance Sheets of Different Countries  183 Asia Region  183 Malaysia’s Central Bank Balance Sheets for the Month of February 2018  183 Monetary Authority of Singapore  184 Africa Region  185 Nigeria’s Central Bank Balance Sheets for the Month of November 2017  185 South America  186 Central Reserve Bank of Peru  186 Brazil  188 Chile  189 Argentina  190 North America  193 Mexico  193 Canada  194 United States  195 Appendix II: Abbreviations  197 References  199 Index  205

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Book SynopsisMaster the concepts and strategies underlying success and progress in data science. From the author of the bestsellers, Data Scientist and Julia for Data Science, this book covers four foundational areas of data science. The first area is the data science pipeline including methodologies and the data scientists toolbox. The second are essential practices needed in understanding the data including questions and hypotheses. The third are pitfalls to avoid in the data science process. The fourth is an awareness of future trends and how modern technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI) fit into the data science framework. Targeted towards data science learners of all levels, this book aims to help the reader go beyond data science techniques and obtain a more holistic and deeper understanding of what data science entails. With a focus on the problems data science tries to solve, this book challenges the reader to become a self-sufficient player in the field.

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Book SynopsisThe purpose of this book is to demystify the causes of wealth and poverty like never before done. It is the seminal comprehensive presentation of the CDR index. The CDR index is a mathematical model that shows how capitalism (C), democracy (D) and rule of law (R) jointly with natural resources and geography explain almost all economic growth. As it turns out, capitalism, democracy, and rule of law are intangible policy variables that are at the disposal of all countries and explain almost all gross domestic production of tangible products and services. There is also a minor contribution from non-policy variables such as natural resources and geography. These are all that countries require at their disposal and choice in order to enjoy their desired standard of living. The CDR economic growth model is a new paradigm.

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Book Synopsis The purpose of this study is to determine the role of tourism in the economy of Bulgaria. In this paper, we present the history of the Bulgarian tourism industry trends from the beginning to its contemporary policy patterns. We apply an econometric methodology consisting of unit root test, cointegration analysis, linear regression, correlation analysis, Granger causality test and 3-D visualizations by IBM Watson Studio based on the statistics for the period 1980-2017. Exploring the link between tourism and the economic development of Bulgaria, the tourism – led - growth hypothesis about Bulgaria is validated for the post-communism period. Our findings show that a relationship between tourism and Bulgaria’s economic development exists. We can conclude that tourism is in part an endogenous growth process. ABSTRACTING & INDEXING Smart Analysis of Tourism Policy Efficiency in Bulgaria for the Period 1980-2017 is covered by the following services: Baidu ScholarBarnes & NobleBayerische StaatsbibliothekBDSBoDBowker Book DataCiandoCNKI Scholar (China National Knowledge Infrastructure)DimensionsEBSCOExLibrisGoogle BooksGoogle ScholarNavigaReadCubeSemantic ScholarTDOne (TDNet)WorldCat (OCLC)X-MOLAdditionally, the proceedings volume is registered and indexed in the Crossref database and accessible on Amazon.

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Book SynopsisAn econometric estimator is a solution to an optimization problem. This book provides the tools and concepts necessary to study the behavior of econometric estimators and test statistics in large samples.Table of ContentsThe Linear Model and Instrumental Variables Estimators. Consistency. Laws of Large Numbers. Asymptotic Normality. Central Limit Theory. Estimating Asymptotic Covariance Matrices. Functional Central Limit Theory and Applications. Directions for Further Study. Solution Set. References. Index.

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Book SynopsisThis text provides graduate students of macroeconomics, econometrics, and monetary economics with discussion and practical illustrations of the techniques used in applied macroeconometrics. Until the 1970s, there was consensus regarding both the theoretical foundations and the empirical specification of applied macroeconometric modelling, commonly known as the Cowles Commission approach. This is no longer the case: the Cowles Commission approach broke down in the 1970s, to be replaced by a number of prominent competing methods--the LSE (London School of Economics) approach, the VAR approach, and the intertemporal optimization/Real Business Cycle approach. Applied Macroeconometrics examines the empirical research strategy of these alternatives by interpreting them as attempts to solve the problems observed in the Cowles Commission approach. The different research strategies are illustrated with specific reference to real-world examples, particularly with respect to the monetary transmisTrade ReviewThis book provides an extremely useful and accessible description of a wide range of techniques and approaches currently used in applied macroeconometrics * Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.16, No.5 *

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Book SynopsisConnections among different assets, asset classes, portfolios, and the stocks of individual institutions are critical in examining financial markets. Interest in financial markets implies interest in underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. In Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness, Frank Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz propose a simple framework for defining, measuring, and monitoring connectedness, which is central to finance and macroeconomics. These measures of connectedness are theoretically rigorous yet empirically relevant. The approach to connectedness proposed by the authors is intimately related to the familiar econometric notion of variance decomposition. The full set of variance decompositions from vector auto-regressions produces the core of the ''connectedness table.'' The connectedness table makes clear how one can begin with the most disaggregated pair-wise directional connectedness measures and aggregate them in various ways to obtain total connectedness measures. The authorTrade ReviewDiebold and Yilmaz's timely book develops powerful new network tools for understanding the inter-dependence of risks in large-scale financial systems. These tools shed important new light on past financial crises and will fill an important gap in the monitoring of systemic risk going forward. * Peter Christoffersen, Professor of Finance, Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto. *The aftermath of the Lehman bankruptcy revealed that economists lacked understanding of the linkages within the financial industry and across the different sectors of the economy. The book by Frank Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz has many fresh ideas and new tools to study this very important topic. It is a must-read for anybody interested in this burgeoning area of research. * Eric Ghysels, Bernstein Distinguished Professor of Economics and Professor of Finance, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill *We live in a highly integrated world economy with much stronger cross-border connections today than any other time in history. We need to have a better grasp of these connections as they are now at the heart of everyday macroeconomics and finance. Diebold and Yilmaz provide a masterful framework that greatly enhances our understanding of these connections. They also open new research avenues by showing practical applications of their framework in different contexts. And all of these make their book a classical reference on the topic. * Ayhan Kose, Director, Development Prospects Group, The World Bank *Table of ContentsChapter 1: Measuring and Monitoring Connectedness ; Chapter 2: U.S. Asset Classes ; Chapter 3: Major U.S. Financial Institutions ; Chapter 4: Global Stock Markets ; Chapter 5: Sovereign Bond Markets ; Chapter 6: Foreign Exchange Markets ; Chapter 7: Assets Across Countries ; Chapter 8: Global Business Cycles

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Book SynopsisBayesian econometric methods have enjoyed an increase in popularity in recent years. Econometricians, empirical economists, and policymakers are increasingly making use of Bayesian methods. This handbook is a single source for researchers and policymakers wanting to learn about Bayesian methods in specialized fields, and for graduate students seeking to make the final step from textbook learning to the research frontier. It contains contributions by leading Bayesians on the latest developments in their specific fields of expertise. The volume provides broad coverage of the application of Bayesian econometrics in the major fields of economics and related disciplines, including macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, and marketing. It reviews the state of the art in Bayesian econometric methodology, with chapters on posterior simulation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, Bayesian nonparametric techniques, and the specialized tools used by Bayesian time series econometricians such as Trade ReviewThis Handbook is an excellent piece of scholarly work that displays the full power of the Bayesian method. * Gael Martin *Table of ContentsPART I: PRINCIPLES ; PART II: METHODS ; PART III: APPLICATIONS

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Book SynopsisThis book provides an accessible presentation of the standard statistical techniques used by labour economists. It emphasises both the input and the output of empirical analysis and covers five major topics concerning econometric methods used in labour economics: regression and related methods, choice modelling, selectivity issues, duration analysis, and policy evaluation techniques. Each of these is presented in terms of model specification, possible estimation problems, diagnostic checking, and interpretation of the output. It aims to provide guidance to practitioners on how to use the techniques and how to make sense of the results that are produced. It covers methods that are considered to be ''standard'' tools in labour economics, but which are often given only a brief and highly technical treatment in econometrics textbooks. It will be a useful reference for postgraduates and advanced undergraduates, researchers embarking on empirical labour market analysis, and for more experienTable of ContentsIntroduction ; 1. The Use of Linear Regression in Labour Economics ; 2. Further Regression Issues in Labour Economics ; 3. Dummy and Ordinal Dependent Variables ; 4. Selectivity ; 5. Duration Models ; 6. Evaluation of Policy Measures ; Conclusion

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Book SynopsisThis new edition updates Durbin & Koopman''s important text on the state space approach to time series analysis. The distinguishing feature of state space time series models is that observations are regarded as made up of distinct components such as trend, seasonal, regression elements and disturbance terms, each of which is modelled separately. The techniques that emerge from this approach are very flexible and are capable of handling a much wider range of problems than the main analytical system currently in use for time series analysis, the Box-Jenkins ARIMA system. Additions to this second edition include the filtering of nonlinear and non-Gaussian series.Part I of the book obtains the mean and variance of the state, of a variable intended to measure the effect of an interaction and of regression coefficients, in terms of the observations.Part II extends the treatment to nonlinear and non-normal models. For these, analytical solutions are not available so methods are based on simulation.Trade ReviewReview from previous edition ...provides an up-to-date exposition and comprehensive treatment of state space models in time series analysis...This book will be helpful to graduate students and applied statisticians working in the area of econometric modelling as well as researchers in the areas of engineering, medicine and biology where state space models are used. * Journal of the Royal Statistical Society *Table of ContentsPART I: THE LINEAR STATE SPACE MODEL; PART II: NON-GAUSSIAN AND NONLINEAR STATE SPACE MODELS

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Book SynopsisBayesian econometric methods have enjoyed an increase in popularity in recent years. Econometricians, empirical economists, and policymakers are increasingly making use of Bayesian methods. This handbook is a single source for researchers and policymakers wanting to learn about Bayesian methods in specialized fields, and for graduate students seeking to make the final step from textbook learning to the research frontier. It contains contributions by leading Bayesians on the latest developments in their specific fields of expertise. The volume provides broad coverage of the application of Bayesian econometrics in the major fields of economics and related disciplines, including macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, and marketing. It reviews the state of the art in Bayesian econometric methodology, with chapters on posterior simulation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, Bayesian nonparametric techniques, and the specialized tools used by Bayesian time series econometricians such as Trade ReviewThis Handbook is an excellent piece of scholarly work that displays the full power of the Bayesian method. All chapters, whilst reasonably self-contained, also serve as springboards to the broader literature, with extensive referencing being a feature of all. Access to specialized computer code is provided in some cases, serving to aid in the wider dissemination and use of the paradigm. * Gael Martin, The Econometrics Journal *Table of ContentsPART I: PRINCIPLES ; PART II: METHODS ; PART III: APPLICATIONS

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Book SynopsisSpecially selected from The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2nd edition, each article within this compendium covers the fundamental themes within the discipline and is written by a leading practitioner in the field. A handy reference tool.Trade ReviewPraise for the 8-volume edition: Winner of the 2008 PROSE Award: Best Mutlivolume Reference Work in the Humanitiesand Social Sciences (from the Professional and Scholarly Division of the Association of American Publishers) CHOICE Outstanding Academic Title 2008 "Much has changed in the latest incarnation of this dictionary. ...More than 1,500 economists contributed almost 1,900 signed entries; more than 1,000 of the entries are new or 'heavily revised' and expanded. Along with the descriptions of economic method from earlier editions, this edition includes much information on 'what those methods have found.' It also offers new emphasis on advances that have occurred in microeconomics, Bayesian theory, game theory, and behavioral, international, and experimental economics. ...A regularly updated online version of the dictionary is available www.dictionaryofeconomics.com, with site license pricing based on institution type and FTE. Summing Up: Highly recommended." - CHOICETable of ContentsContents General Preface Introduction List of Contributors List of Entries Entries A-Z Index

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Book SynopsisThe book presents in a rigorous and thorough manner the main elements of Charles Manski's research on partial identification of probability distributions. The approach to inference that runs throughout the book is deliberately conservative and thoroughly nonparametric.Trade ReviewFrom the reviews: "Charles Manski has produced a nice and compact text written with extreme care, providing technical detail, and mathematical proofs where needed." Biometrics, March 2005 "This book is an excellent and rigorous presentation of the state of research in the area of partial identification of populations and credible inference, in which the author has made many important contributions. … The overall quality of the book is very good. … The main part of each chapter is written in a textbook style. … Clearly, both methodology and the applications presented are intended to provide statisticians with a good foundation for further study in the subject … ." (Evdokia Xekalaki, Zentralblatt MATH, Vol. 1047 (22), 2004) "I found the material very pertinent, departing, as it does, from the usual parametric approach in which the conclusions depend rather critically on the probability model adopted. Given a chance, it will make the traditionalist, like me, stop and think and perhaps, try to mend their ways a little. The main part of each chapter is written in textbook style, but fairly formally and rigorously … . At the end of each chapter appear ‘Complements’, giving examples and extensions, and ‘Endnotes’… ." (M. J. Crowder, Short Book Reviews, Vol. 23 (3), 2003) "This book, containing ten chapters, is the first comprehensive presentation of the theory of partial identification of probability distributions. It gives an overview of the research into this topic." (M. Riedel, Mathematical Reviews, Issue 2006 g) "The book is carefully and thoughtfully written. Some chapters start with a cogent section on the "anatomy of the problem," and all end with complements addressing specific contexts." (Alan F. Kaar, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 102, No. 477, 2007)Table of ContentsMissing Outcomes * Instrumental Variables * Conditional Prediction with Missing Data * Contaminated Outcomes * Regressions, Short and Long * Response-Based Sampling * Analysis of Treatment Response * Monotone Treatment Response * Monotone Instrumental Variables * The Mixing Problem

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Book Synopsis1 Stationary Time Series.- 2 Hilbert Spaces.- 3 Stationary ARMA Processes.- 4 The Spectral Representation of a Stationary Process.- 5 Prediction of Stationary Processes.- 6* Asymptotic Theory.- 7 Estimation of the Mean and the Autocovariance Function.- 8 Estimation for ARMA Models.- 9 Model Building and Forecasting with ARIMA Processes.- 10 Inference for the Spectrum of a Stationary Process.- 11 Multivariate Time Series.- 12 State-Space Models and the Kalman Recursions.- 13 Further Topics.- Appendix: Data Sets.Table of Contents1 Stationary Time Series.- 2 Hilbert Spaces.- 3 Stationary ARMA Processes.- 4 The Spectral Representation of a Stationary Process.- 5 Prediction of Stationary Processes.- 6* Asymptotic Theory.- 7 Estimation of the Mean and the Autocovariance Function.- 8 Estimation for ARMA Models.- 9 Model Building and Forecasting with ARIMA Processes.- 10 Inference for the Spectrum of a Stationary Process.- 11 Multivariate Time Series.- 12 State-Space Models and the Kalman Recursions.- 13 Further Topics.- Appendix: Data Sets.

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Book SynopsisUsing unique and cutting-edge research, Schofield a prominent author in the US for a number of years, explores the growth area of positive political economy within economics and politics. The first book to explain the spatial model of voting from a mathematical, economics and game-theory perspective it is essential reading for all those studying positive political economy.Table of Contents1. Introduction 2. Social Choice 3. Voting Rules 4. The Core 5. The Heart 6. A Spatial Model of Coalition 7. A Spatial Model of Elections 8. Activist Coalitions 9. Political Coalitions in the United States 10. Conclusion

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