Decision theory: general Books

Book SynopsisTo commemorate the 10-year anniversary of the International School Leadership Development Network (ISLDN), this book is a compilation of the work conducted by network scholars. This volume is the first comprehensive overview of the studies conducted by ISLDN members engaged in examining how social justice leaders and leaders of high-needs schools address the social conditions, learning experiences, and performance of their students. Other international school leadership research consortia have emerged in the 21st century; however, the ISLDN is the second longest operating project, after the International Successful School Principalship Project (ISSPP). Since its creation in 2010, ISLDN scholars have delivered papers at a variety of international conferences and shared findings in research publications, including books and special issues of journals.Until now, ISLDN research findings have been disseminated separately for the project’s two strands: (a) social justice leadership and (b) leadership in underperforming high-needs schools. Therefore, the purpose of the book is to document the history and evolution of the ISLDN and to provide descriptions and reflections of the project’s research findings, methodologies, and collaborative processes across the two strands. This volume captures studies of school leaders from 19 countries representing six continents - Africa, Asia, Australia and Oceania, Europe, North America, and South America. The authors examine important external and internal contextual factors influencing schools in different cultural settings and provide insights about the values and practices of social justice leaders working in high-needs school settings. Numerous practical strategies are provided for school leaders working in schools with similar conditions. The concluding chapter by the co-editors synthesizes the structural factors, personal beliefs and values, and contextualized change management strategies that shape school leaders’ actions aimed at ensuring the best learning outcomes for their students.Besides capturing the range of findings emerging from various ISLDN studies conducted over the past decade, several chapters critically examine the project’s current contributions to the field. Authors suggest broadening the dissemination of our findings to increase the visibility of the project, expanding the research methods beyond qualitative interviews, incorporating studies from non-Anglophone countries, and augmenting the scope of our analyses and research focus. These researchers’ journeys also reveal the obstacles to and benefits of engaging in these types of international collaborative research ventures.

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Book SynopsisInformation we receive from and create together with our social networks is becoming increasingly important. Social information has a great impact on our information behaviour and there are many possible angles and layers in studying social aspects in information science. This book presents some of these angles. Social Information Research, co-edited by Gunilla Widen and Kim Holmberg communicates current research looking into different aspects of social information as part of information behaviour research. There is a special emphasis on the new innovations supporting contemporary information behavior and the social media context within which it can sit. As a concept, social information has been studied in biology, psychology and sociology among other disciplines. This book is relevant for various actors in the library and information science field and will be useful for researchers, educators, and practitioners while coordinating empirical research on social information and providing an overview of some of the present research about social information.Table of ContentsList of Contributors. Preface. Chapter 1 Introduction to Social Information Research. Chapter 2 ‘Ciphers to this Great Accompt’ – the Shakespearian Social Sense-Making of Theatre Professionals. Chapter 3 Usefully Messy: How People Use Rich, Complex Descriptions to Make Sense in Online Renal Discussion Groups. Chapter 4 Students’ Group Work Attitudes and Experiences in Collaborative Wiki Writing. Chapter 5 Social Tagging in Support of Cancer Patients’ Information Interaction. Chapter 6 Embracing Twitter as a Research Tool. Chapter 7 Information Phenomena in Game-Related Social Media. Chapter 8 FOAF Within UK Academic Web Space: A Webometric Analysis of the Semantic Web. Chapter 9 Assessing the Impact of Online Academic Videos. Chapter 10 Using Social Media to Extend and Enrich Practice in the Information Sector. Chapter 11 Recommendation for Social Networking in Academia. Social Information Research. Library and Information Science. Library and Information Science. Copyright page. Editorial Advisory Board. About the Authors. Subject Index.

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Book SynopsisMaking complex decisions can seem hard, and making them stick may feel impossible.Business leaders must consider multiple factors and opinions, negotiate with numerous stakeholders and implement decisions successfully. Hard Decisions Made Easy sets out effective and practical ways to tackle the twin challenges of this process: balancing non-financial and financial outcomes, and getting stakeholders on board.This book will help you to: Make seemingly impossible decisions with confidence Succeed in balancing tangible and intangible outcomes Engage stakeholders positively and win their support Get your decisions to stick

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Book SynopsisThis shortguide will help you to understand what your decisions aremeant to achieve. It looks at the factors that influence the quality of thosedecisions and outlines the key actions to take in making the decision,implementing it and learning from it.

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Book SynopsisDecision and Decision-maker in an Industrial Environment developed around the observation that two different decision-makers, faced with the same problem, may not make the same decision. The book proposes explanations for this, ranging from the wholly rational to the irrational, and analyzes different factors in decision-making, such as the intention of the decision-maker, the environment in which their decision is made or the process leading to decision-making. While the common belief is that everything in an industrial environment stems from reasoned decisions, analysis of common practice shows that this is not always the case. This book offers an original perspective by presenting the decision making mechanism from the point of view of the decision maker and their handling of a specific decision-making problem. To learn more about the decision-maker’s motivations when faced with these situations, the authors provide a review of the history of decisionmaking and the major trends in decision-making theory. The concepts and methods are presented with illustrations based on the use of an MES, an industrial management software package.Table of ContentsForeword ix Preface xiii Chapter 1 Decision and Decision Context 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 A fleeting look at some of the great civilizations 5 1.2.1 Method of investigation 5 1.2.2 The ancient Near-East 6 1.2.3 Ancient Egypt 10 1.2.4 India 12 1.2.5 China 16 1.2.6 Ancient Greece 21 1.2.7 The Arab-Muslim world 25 1.2.8 The Western world 28 1.3 Conclusion 33 Chapter 2 Decisions: The Process 37 2.1 Introduction 37 2.2 Why a decision process? 40 2.3 The notion of process 43 2.4 Decision-making: rationality or intuition 44 2.5 The classical theory of rationality 46 2.5.1 The search for a numerical value 46 2.5.2 Fundamentals 47 2.5.3 Operational research 48 2.5.4 Game theory 52 2.5.5 Taking account of uncertainty: towards procedural rationality 53 2.5.6 A return to the decision process 56 2.5.7 Summary and analysis 60 2.6 Procedural rationality theory 62 2.6.1 The search for a satisfactory solution 62 2.6.2 The basics 64 2.6.3 The school of Herbert Simon 66 2.6.4 Extensions to Simon’s process 74 2.6.5 Procedural rationality and artificial intelligence 83 2.6.6 A return to the decision process 84 2.6.7 Summary and analysis 87 2.7 Conclusion 89 Chapter 3 The Decision: The Multi-criteria Universe 91 3.1 Introduction 91 3.2 Comparing to be able to choose 93 3.2.1 Intuitive vision 93 3.2.2 In a single criterion universe 94 3.2.3 In a multi-criteria universe 94 3.3 The construction of MCDA 95 3.4 Vocabulary 98 3.4.1 Solutions 98 3.4.2 The criteria 101 3.4.3 Decision types 107 3.5 Ordering for comparison 111 3.5.1 Intuitive vision 111 3.5.2 The notion of preferences 112 3.5.3 Preferences and order relationships 114 3.6 The particular case of Pareto dominance 121 3.7 Summary 124 3.8 Conclusion 126 Chapter 4 The Decision: Methods 127 4.1 Introduction 127 4.2 Outranking 129 4.2.1 Principles 129 4.2.2 Condorcet’s method 131 4.2.3 The ELECTRE III method 134 4.3 Aggregation 147 4.3.1 Principles 147 4.3.2 The Borda count method 150 4.3.3 The AHP method 152 4.3.4 The MACBETH method 168 4.4 Conclusion 187 Conclusion 189 References 193 Index 207

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Book SynopsisThis book is a methodological guide intended for those who wish to better understand how to conduct research in the education and training sciences. It is organized into three main parts. The first part deals with postures, emphasizing the idea that engaging in a research process involves taking a different stance from that of a social or professional actor. For example, this may require converting a professional or social question into a research question or reflecting on the use of a social vocabulary in research. The second part concerns practices, that is, how research is conducted: the definition of a research question based on findings, theoretical exploration and problematization, the production of empirical information and its analysis and restitution. The third and final part concludes by focusing on the diversity of research forms; not only research cultures specific to disciplinary fields and approaches, such as action research, collaborative research or research training, but also the design choices in terms of multi-, inter- or trans-disciplinarily.Table of ContentsIntroduction vii Chapter 1 Positions: Some Specificities of a Research Approach Compared to a Professional Approach 1 1.1 A difference in position between that of the social or professional actor and that of the researcher 1 1.2 The challenge of research is to move from a social/professional question to a research question 5 1.3 The challenge of research is also to focus on common-sense concepts 6 1.4 The issue of the epistemological choices made by the researcher and the implications 8 Chapter 2 Practices: Conducting a Research Project and Data Security Issues 11 2.1 Introduction: the research context 11 2.2 Scientific approach and methods in the social sciences 13 2.3 From research topic to problem statement 15 2.3.1 The initial question 15 2.3.2 The exploratory approach 16 2.3.3 Problem statement 18 2.4 Design of the survey protocol 19 2.4.1 Survey field and participants 20 2.4.2 Negotiating the survey and field access with the Local Education Authority and management teams: a project to be defended 21 2.4.3 General Data Protection Regulation on personal data and documents produced 22 2.5 The construction of data collection instruments 35 2.5.1 Constructing the questionnaire 35 2.5.2 Composing the interview guide 45 2.6 Data collection 48 2.6.1 Time in the field 48 2.6.2 Administering the questionnaires 51 2.6.3 Administering interviews 53 2.6.4 GDPR, tasks and constraints 55 2.7 Data processing 57 2.7.1 Clean up the database 57 2.7.2 Transcribing 62 2.8 Data analysis 63 2.8.1 Analyzing questionnaires 64 2.8.2 Interview analysis 88 2.9 Dissemination and publication of results 97 2.9.1 Group dossier 97 2.9.2 Reports, conferences and research articles 104 Chapter 3 Forms: Research Cultures, Diversity of Forms and Interdisciplinary Issues 111 3.1 Recognizing different research “cultures” 111 3.2 External research, engaged research, collaborative research, action research and related issues 114 3.3 Mono-, pluri-, inter- and transdisciplinary research and related issues 119 3.4 Communication and valorization of research (its outcomes and methodological steps) 122 3.5 Pursuing a doctorate 124 3.6 Careers in research and higher education 127 Conclusion 133 Appendix 1 Questionnaire 137 Appendix 2 Interview Guide 153 Appendix 3 Quiz 157 References 169 Index 173

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Book SynopsisProviding an accessible introduction to the application of multi-criteria analysis in law, this book illustrates how simple additive weighing, a well known method in decision theory, can be used in problem structuring, analysis and decision support for overall assessments and balancing of interests in the context of law. Through clear illustrations and a variety of concrete examples, this book shows how simple additive weighing can be applied in any situation in which there are one or more objectives, multiple options and multiple decision criteria. Further demonstrating the use of fuzzy logic in conjunction with this method, Bengt Lindell adeptly shows the reader how extra-disciplinary methods have much to contribute in a legal decision-making context. The methods covered in this book help to balance the issues of intuition versus structural analysis, risk and uncertainty, and the merging of probability and utility in the context of law. Practical and engaging, this book will prove an indispensible guide for academics and scholars across many legal disciplines. Public and private decision makers will also benefit from its clear and concise approach, affording them new insights into the application of multi-criteria analysis in law.Trade Review'Law is about balancing of interests. How to do this, is considered mainly to be a matter of intuition. This book offers a structured method based on decision theory and fuzzy logic. It helps lawyers to balance interests and make choices in complex cases in a systematic way, even when the weighting is based on subjective ratings and opinions differ fundamentally. The method of multi-criteria analysis is explained in a very clear and accessible way and applied to several, legal and other cases.' --Bart van Klink, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the Netherlands'This is a highly original approach to a pressing problem of legal reasoning: how to decide in a context in which many different values and interests need to be considered. The interdisciplinary approach chosen, using decision theory and adapting it to a legal context, provides a fresh perspective on important issues such as balancing of interests and weighting of different legal values. Firmly grounded in Scandinavian discussions of legal reasoning and the international literature on decision theory, it is particularly relevant to administrative legal decisions, but it may also be relevant to judicial decision-making in private or criminal law.' --Sanne Taekema, Erasmus University Rotterdam, the NetherlandsTable of ContentsContents: 1. Overall assessments and balancing of interests 2. Multi-criteria analysis 3. Intuition 4. Legal examples of decision-making with SAW 5. Decision-making under uncertainty 6. Evidentiary aspects Bibliography Index

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Book SynopsisWhat is it that makes some of us better - or worse - than others at committing to a choice? What are the forces that hold us back, and how can we successfully overcome them?Every facet of our lives depends on the decisions we make. Yet, how often do we pause to reflect on our ability to make the best and smartest choices? The key is how we confront and refine thedecision making process.Joseph Bikart explores the intricacies of decision making, challenging us to understand why we make the choices we do. He explores how the true power of decisions, especially the toughest among them, help us to face our fears and may in turn change how we think aboutourselves.The book is broken into four clear parts and punctuated with short practical essays Bikart presents a lively and compelling exploration of the process of decision making covering;Indecision, indecision - what makes us indecisive? What holds us back and why? Where Art Thou? How and where we get stuck and the importance of relaxing one's grip. The Momentum of Decisiveness - Keeping our focus and proactivity. The Deciding Mind - making our smartest choices. Drawing from such different fields as philosophy, psychology, neurology, literature, art historyand theology, we are taken on a journey from the depths of procrastination to the elation of decision making. Presenting a fresh perspective on what to do at the proverbial fork in the road, Bikart's unique philosophy is insightful, thought provoking, and potentially life-changing.Trade Review" With both wit and erudition ... Bikart's The Art of Decision Making leads the reader to greater understanding, greater accountability, and greater facility in cutting through the nettlesome thicket of life to a place of resolve." "Navigating the complex world of how we decide or more urgently, how we avoid decision, is for many ofus, a stormy sea. Bikart steers a brilliant course through these difficult waters and delivers his reader to new and clear-blue depths, encompassing the philosophy, psychology and cartography of every dimension of decision making."

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Book SynopsisDecision-making is an activity in which everyone is engaged on a more or less daily basis. In this book, Karin Brunsson and Nils Brunsson explore the intricacies of decision-making for individuals and organizations. When, how and why do they make decisions? The authors identify four distinct ways of reasoning that decision-makers use. The consequences of decisions vary: some promote action, others impede it, and some produce more responsibility than others. With in-depth discussions of rationality, justifications and hypocrisy, the authors show how organizational and political decision processes become over-complicated and difficult for both decision makers and external observers to understand. Decisions is a concise and easy-to-read introduction to a highly significant and intriguing topic. Based on research from several fields, it provides useful reading and essential knowledge for scholars and students throughout the social sciences and for everyone who wants to understand their own decisions and those of others.Trade Review'Decision-making is often a confusing and confused process. Emotions, judgements and prejudices can all play a part, whether a decision is made by an individual, a group or an organization. The study of decision making, however, doesn't have to be either confusing or confused as this excellent book eloquently demonstrates. The four logics of decision-making identified here provide the authors with a framework which enables them to explain in clear and simple terms decisions that appear complex, confusing or irrational.' --Yiannis Gabriel, University of Bath, UK'This rich, imaginative little book offers fascinating insights into the intricacies of decision making by both individuals and organizations, and a sobering appraisal of the delayed Swedish response to the 2004 tsunami. Any new book by Karen and Nils Brunsson is a welcome treat, and this one is a gem!' --Walter W. Powell, Stanford University'Decisions: The Complexities of Individual and Organizational Decision-Making by Nils and Karin Brunsson offers an excellent introduction to the complexities of decision-making. Decades of research on decision making are succinctly summarized and presented in a refreshing and easily accessible way. A must read for researchers, students and practitioners who want to get an overview of the latest insights into the particularities of individual and organizational decision-making.' --David Seidl, University of Zurich, SwitzerlandTable of ContentsContents: The Quake 1. Decisions 2. Individuals as decision makers 3. Organizations as decision makers 4. The Consequences of Decisions 5. Complex decision processes After the tsunami References Index

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Book SynopsisThis thought provoking book is concerned with the need to deal adequately with uncertainty in environmental decision making. The author advances a critique of the use of traditional models and then develops an alternative model of decision making under uncertainty, based on the work of George Shackle.Richard Young forwards a critique of the conventional expected utility approach and, using an alternative conceptualisation of environmental uncertainty, contends that there are a number of different modes of uncertainty and that many environmental decisions are characterised by what is termed 'hard uncertainty'. The presence of hard uncertainty radically alters the way in which environmental uncertainty can be dealt with at both an epistemological and a practical level and poses a number of problems for traditional decision making frameworks based on probability. The author goes on to apply the model to a case study of the Belize Southern Highway - the first major application of Shackle's theory in the context of environmental economics. Detailing and explaining practical and theoretical approaches, this book will interest and inform academics in the fields of environmental economics and environmental science, geography, economics and social science, as well as decision makers in governmental and non-governmental agencies.Trade Review'Until recently, George Shackle's work has not been appreciated adequately by mainstream economists. Young's book is the first attempt to use the Shackle model to handle the hard uncertainty issue in environmental decisionmaking. Such an approach could be fruitfully applied to other case studies involving environmental decisions as well as other nonenvironmental decisions conditioned by hard uncertainty. This book has succeeded admirably in demonstrating how to apply an abstract theory in tackling problems in a real-world situation. This volume represents a major contribution to environmental economics. Besides presenting a thoughtful critique of the conventional expected-utility approach, Young's book has made a convincing case that the presence of hard uncertainty radically alters the way in which environmental uncertainty can be dealt with at both an epistemological and a practical level. The book is very well written and logically organized. It will be of great interest to both academic as well as policy audiences.' -- Daniel Sui, Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design'This is an interesting and readable book. . .' -- Mick Common, Journal of Economic Psychology'The disturbance of an ecosystem is a unique, one-off event which involves, in the author's terms, "hard uncertainty". This book makes a major contribution to environmental economics by tackling this issue head-on. Young articulates the Shackle theory and evaluates it with a case study of the Belize Southern Highway. In doing so he makes a major contribution to Shacklean economics by conducting "laboratory experiments" with some of the personnel associated with the project and provides fascinating original material on the impact on the ecosystem. He demonstrates how Shackle's theory can be used in decisions that involve environmental concerns.' -- J.L. Ford, University of Birmingham, UKTable of ContentsContents: Preface 1. Introduction: Dealing with Uncertainty in Environmental Decision Making 2. The Decision Making Context 3. Environmental Uncertainty 4. Uncertainty and Decision Making 5. The Shackle Model 6. Case Study: The Belize Southern Highway 7. Methodology 8. Results of the Application of the Shackle Model 9. Discussion: A Framework for the Evaluation of Hard Uncertainty in Environmental Decision Making 10. Conclusions Appendices 1. Questionnaire 2. Gain and Loss Scenarios 3. Potential Surprise and Ascendancy/Weighting Functions 4. Summary of Results from Regression of Weighting/Ascendancy Function Bibliography Index

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Book SynopsisWithin a technological context, this volume addresses contemporary theories of consciousness, subjective experience, the creation of meaning and emotion, and relationships between cognition and location. Its focus is both on and beyond the digital culture, seeking to assimilate new ideas emanating from the physical sciences as well as embracing spiritual and artistic aspects of human experience. Developing on the studies published in Roy Ascott's successful Reframing Consciousness, the book documents the very latest work from those connected with the internationally acclaimed CAiiA-STAR centre and its conferences. Their artistic and theoretical research in new media and art includes aspects of:

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Book SynopsisThis book offers a broad perspective on the economics of expectations. Experimental studies are used to analyse how human bounded rationality affects economic performance. The challenges posed for policy making are also addressed.Tobias Rotheli begins by presenting the basic tools and theoretical models necessary to our understanding of rational and boundedly rational expectations and their role in economic life. Key topics discussed include expectations in general equilibrium theory, probabilities and expected utility, heterogeneity of economic agents, behavioural alternatives to forecasting and the effects of expectations heuristics, particularly in financial markets. The author then goes on to explore the fascinating insights behavioural economics - the empirical analysis of economic decision making - has to offer. Here experimental studies illustrate the effects of costly information, the role of pattern recognition as basis of expectations, anticipation and coordination failures, and the role of expectations in determining the general price level. The book also addresses the implications of the experimental findings for applied economics.Aiming to achieve the accessibility of a textbook, this research monograph will appeal to economic researchers interested in economic behaviour and theory, as well as students taking upper-level undergraduate and graduate courses. It will also be of interest to economists working in business and government.Trade Review'To a significant extent, the book is at the cutting edge of much economic thinking in microeconomics. . . it brings together nicely material on uncertainty, expectations and cognitive limitations and relates this to recent work in experimental economics.' -- Geoffrey M. Hodgson, University of Hertfordshire, UK'For more than 200 years, economists have debated the microfoundations of their science. There is only one way forward and that is to carefully examine the nature and the rationality of decision processes. Professor Rotheli's book is unique. He offers an idiosyncratic blend of theoretical analysis and experimental research that enlightens and provokes.' -- Werner F.M. De Bondt, DePaul University, USTable of ContentsContents: Preface Part I: Models and Tools 1. Markets and Expectations 2. Expected Utility Maximization 3. Effects of Heterogeneous Expectations 4. Forecasting Among Alternative Strategies under Uncertainty 5. Expectations in Time Series Models Part II: Experiments and Applications 6. Costly Information and Decision Making 7. Applied Welfare Economics with Boundedly Rational Expectations 8. Pattern Recognition as the Basis of Expectations 9. Pattern-Based Expectations and Financial Markets 10. Anticipations and Coordination Failures 11. Money, Transactions and Expectations References Index

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Book SynopsisEconomic players must often choose between several strategic options in a fierce competitive environment where interactions with competitors make decisions particularly complex. Game theory offers useful insights to choose an optimal decision or at least a basis for making rational decision given the constraints of the stakeholders' environment. In presenting the concepts and the logical structure of the reasoning offered by game theory and their applications, the book explains the rational process of decision making in the framework of firm management and market competition. By avoiding the usual complexity of presentation often due to mathematical formalism, the book proposes a reflection and practical insights of game theory for practitioners (managers, strategists) and social, managerial and economic researchers. The book will expose both general teachings and a comprehensive analysis applied to specific case studies of various sectors of the economy.Table of ContentsIntroduction ix Chapter 1. Game Theory and Strategic Management 1 1.1. Game theory and strategic management: semantic and/or conceptual convergences? 1 1.2. The current position of game theory in strategic management 7 1.2.1. Game theory and the school of positioning 7 1.2.2. Growing interest for game theory 13 1.3. The theoretical determinants of coopetition: borrowed from game theory 16 1.3.1. The origin of coopetition 16 1.3.2. Coopetitive practices 18 1.3.3. Mechanisms of value creation in the value network (value net) 21 1.4. Conclusion 25 Chapter 2. From Static Games to Dynamic Approaches 27 2.1. Introduction 27 2.2. Strategies and solution concepts: static games 28 2.2.1. Decentralized concepts 28 2.2.2. Maximin and Minimax solutions or the search for a new level of security 41 2.3. Process of dynamic decisions: solutions concepts 44 2.3.1. “Non-cooperative collusion” or “tacit collusion” 45 2.3.2. Sequential games 56 2.4. Conclusion 69 Chapter 3. Coalitions Formation 71 3.1. Introduction 71 3.2. The notion of a coalition and the cooperative approach 73 3.3. Emergence of cooperation: from collective rationality to individual rationality 84 3.3.1. Some illustrations 84 3.3.2. Emergence of cooperation 86 3.4. A simple conceptual frame of analysis for cooperation: notions of internal and external stability of a coalition 90 3.4.1. The concept of stability as a basic property of cooperation 92 3.4.2. The stability as an equilibrium property of a game 93 3.4.3. Examples 96 3.4.4. The role of heterogeneities 99 3.4.5. R&D in a context of asymmetrical firms 103 3.5. Conclusion 105 Chapter 4. Application 1: Dieselgate 107 4.1. Introduction 107 4.2. Storytelling: for those who missed the beginning 108 4.3. Presentation of the facts and strategic reading 110 4.4. The strategic variables and the associated game 115 4.4.1. The rules of the game 116 4.4.2. Payoff 121 4.5. Game resolution and strategic analysis 123 4.5.1. Perfect equilibrium of the game where fraud is deterred 125 4.5.2. Perfect equilibrium with the firm committing fraud 128 4.6. Conclusion 134 Chapter 5. Application 2: Emergence of Food Safety Standards 137 5.1. Introduction 137 5.2. The game 140 5.3. Nash equilibrium 145 5.4. Conclusion 154 Chapter 6. Application 3: Petrol Stations 157 6.1. Introduction: price structure of a multi-store firm and fragilization of isolated competitors 157 6.2. The facts 157 6.3. Strategic management questions 161 6.4. The game 163 6.5. Price structure in the event of collusion 165 6.6. Price war threat and game equilibrium 171 6.7 Game equilibrium within a time horizon 173 6.8. Conclusion 177 Chapter 7. Application 4: HD-DVD versus Blu-ray 181 7.1. Introduction: individual strategies and collective dynamics 181 7.2. Constitution of HD-DVD and Blu-ray consortiums 182 7.3. Definition of the game 186 7.4. Numerical application 191 7.5. Conclusion 195 Conclusion 199 Appendices 203 Appendix 1 205 Appendix 2 231 Bibliography 239 Index 259

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Book SynopsisThis book offers a broad perspective on the economics of expectations. Experimental studies are used to analyse how human bounded rationality affects economic performance. The challenges posed for policy making are also addressed.Tobias Rotheli begins by presenting the basic tools and theoretical models necessary to our understanding of rational and boundedly rational expectations and their role in economic life. Key topics discussed include expectations in general equilibrium theory, probabilities and expected utility, heterogeneity of economic agents, behavioural alternatives to forecasting and the effects of expectations heuristics, particularly in financial markets. The author then goes on to explore the fascinating insights behavioural economics - the empirical analysis of economic decision making - has to offer. Here experimental studies illustrate the effects of costly information, the role of pattern recognition as basis of expectations, anticipation and coordination failures, and the role of expectations in determining the general price level. The book also addresses the implications of the experimental findings for applied economics.Aiming to achieve the accessibility of a textbook, this research monograph will appeal to economic researchers interested in economic behaviour and theory, as well as students taking upper-level undergraduate and graduate courses. It will also be of interest to economists working in business and government.Trade Review'To a significant extent, the book is at the cutting edge of much economic thinking in microeconomics. . . it brings together nicely material on uncertainty, expectations and cognitive limitations and relates this to recent work in experimental economics.' -- Geoffrey M. Hodgson, University of Hertfordshire, UK'For more than 200 years, economists have debated the microfoundations of their science. There is only one way forward and that is to carefully examine the nature and the rationality of decision processes. Professor Rotheli's book is unique. He offers an idiosyncratic blend of theoretical analysis and experimental research that enlightens and provokes.' -- Werner F.M. De Bondt, DePaul University, USTable of ContentsContents: Preface Part I: Models and Tools 1. Markets and Expectations 2. Expected Utility Maximization 3. Effects of Heterogeneous Expectations 4. Forecasting Among Alternative Strategies under Uncertainty 5. Expectations in Time Series Models Part II: Experiments and Applications 6. Costly Information and Decision Making 7. Applied Welfare Economics with Boundedly Rational Expectations 8. Pattern Recognition as the Basis of Expectations 9. Pattern-Based Expectations and Financial Markets 10. Anticipations and Coordination Failures 11. Money, Transactions and Expectations References Index

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Book Synopsis"Why are some teams, businesses, countries and cultures successful and enduring, and some not? The book describes practical applications of collective intelligence, and unlocks the secrets of highly successful teams at all levels in corporations and governments. Well-known companies are analysed, and the reasons for their success or decline explained.The Mystery of Collective Intelligence proposes a new theory of organizational intelligence, explaining how organizational intelligence lies behind AI, robotics and the accelerating automation that is revolutionizing industry around the world. The book explains how organizations themselves can improve their decision-making cultures.The Mystery of Collective Intelligence describes the scientific basis for collective decision-making, and discusses how ethical and socially responsible corporate objectives lead to increased innovation and information sharing, which ultimately leads to improved economic success."Trade Review"Fascinating, insightful, surprising and full of documented ways to achieve better results in any organization. My copy is covered in highlights. A must read for anyone who wants to maximize their organization or team performance."- Dr. Rick Cardin, Chairman Harvard Growth Strategies, USA

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Book SynopsisThis book presents recent advances in the theory and application of the Best-Worst Method (BWM). It includes selected papers from the Second International Workshop on Best-Worst Method (BWM2021), held in Delft, The Netherlands from 10-11 June, 2021, and provides valuable insights on why and how to use BWM in a diverse range of applications including health, energy, supply chain management, and engineering. The book highlights the use of BWM in different settings including single decision-making vs group decision-making, and complete information vs incomplete and uncertain situations. The papers gathered here will benefit academics and practitioners who are involved in multi-criteria decision-making and decision analysis.Table of ContentsPreface.- The balancing role of Best and Worst in Best-Worst Method.- Hierarchical evaluation of criteria and alternatives within BWM: A Mon-te Carlo approach.- A two-step Best-Worst Method (BWM) and K-Means clustering recom-mender system framework.- A linguistic 2-tuple Best-Worst Method.- How does the entrepreneurship ecosystem contribute to the perfor-mance of entrepreneurial start-up firms?.- A multi-attribute decision-making to sustainable construction material selection: A Bayesian BWM-SAW hybrid model.- Risk assessment of passenger flow in an urban rail transit system: indi-cators, application, and analysis.- Bridge infrastructure resilience analysis against seismic hazard using Best-Worst Method.- A value-focused approach for the design of innovative logistics con-cepts: the case of off-peak pickup and delivery in the air cargo industry.- An Innovative digital maturity assessment model for smart cities.- Determining the importance of barriers to IoT implementation using Bayesian Best-Worst Method.- Assessment of environmental performance criteria in textile industry using the Best-Worst Method.

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