Decision theory: general Books

Book SynopsisCollective decision making seems a straightforward matter: people come together and decide. But why is it that today's winners can turn into tomorrow's losers? Why can't you always get what you want? How does the interaction between the decision makers influence the outcome? And are opportunists better off than stubborn decision makers? This book takes a refreshing look at collective decision making by using models of evolutionary biology and naturalistic decision making to analyse real-world cases. These cases include the rise and fall of the Dutch high-speed railway project and the unexpected effects of introducing public-private partnerships to connect the new Thai national airport to Bangkok. Gerrits and Marks successfully guide the reader towards an in-depth understanding through rich empirical research and uncover the beautiful complexity of collective decision making. Understanding Collective Decision Making will be of great interest to academics working in public administration, political science and evolutionary theory. Public managers will also find this book helpful to understand why and how collective decisions are formed.Trade Review'For a while, complexity theory holds the promise of a new paradigm for the planning sciences. This book is a major step forward in that endeavour. It provides a unique blend of analytical reasoning and in-depth case studies within an original and coherent framework.' --Koen Frenken, Utrecht University, the Netherlands'Brilliant! Grounded in the concept of fitness landscapes - as well as the latest advances in case-based modeling and critical realism, and also visual and social complexity - this book is a significant breakthrough in the study of collective decision making, particularly as it unfolds across conceptual time/space. To do so, Gerrits and Marks appeal to the readers' intuition, helping them navigate two fictional worlds (clock and cloud) to arrive at four different real-world empirical examples, which are wonderfully illustrated. There is also a web-based software package (un-code.org), which the authors developed and which readers can now use to employ these new tools. An absolute must-read!' --Brian Castellani, Kent State University, USTable of ContentsContents: 1. An uphill struggle 2. Models of social evolution: fitness landscapes 3. The transformation of fitness landscapes 4. The model 5. Memory of a dream: High-speed rail in the Netherlands 6. Enter in time: Analysing dynamics in three empirical studies 7. Evolution in collective decision making Index

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Advances in Decision Analysis by Ward Edwards | BookCurl

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Book SynopsisEngaging Resistance provides a new empirical framework for understanding the nature of resistance to organizational change. This book points the way towards strategies that can be successfully employed by change champions as they work to engage less enthusiastic colleagues.Trade Review"Engaging Resistance meaningfully builds an emergent theory in an engaging style. Anderson grounds his framework well, illustrating how two institutions of higher education overcome resistance to change. The stories of these institutions include exemplary detail, so that students can easily transfer the lessons-learned to other organizational settings. This book makes a welcome addition to the reading list for my Strategies for Institutional Change course."—Sharon F. Rallis, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, author of Learning in the Field: An Introduction to Qualitative Research"In a refreshingly clear voice, Anderson presents powerful ideas on transformational change and resistance in an easy-to-understand format. Engaging Resistance serves as a template that may be used by change agents anywhere who are committed to making a positive difference in for profit, non-profit, and governmental settings."—Jane C. Edmonds, Senior Fellow, Northeastern University College of Professional Studies

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Book SynopsisFraming effects are everywhere. An estate tax looks very different to a death tax. Gun safety seems to be one thing and gun control another. Yet, the consensus from decision theorists, finance professionals, psychologists, and economists is that frame-dependence is completely irrational. This book challenges that view. Some of the toughest decisions we face are just clashes between different frames. It is perfectly rational to value the same thing differently in two different frames, even when the decision-maker knows that these are really two sides of the same coin. Frame It Again sheds new light on the structure of moral predicaments, the nature of self-control, and the rationality of co-operation. Framing is a powerful tool for redirecting public discussions about some of the most polarizing contemporary issues, such as gun control, abortion, and climate change. Learn effective problem-solving and decision-making to get the better of difficult dilemmas.Trade Review'This is an engaging and authoritative tour through the world of frames. Whether you are interested in psychology, economics, or sociology, framing effects are indeed central to the power of human reason, rather than its undoing.' Nick Chater, Professor of Behavioural Science, Warwick Business School, and author of The Mind Is Flat'… fascinating and well-written book Bermúdez does a great job in showing us the complexities of human decision-making, and the intriguing role frames play in the process.' Annemarie Kalis, Metascience'Bermudez's book is a welcome contribution to the important, broader task of problematizing and challenging the powerful narrative that he labels the litany of irrationality.' Fay Niker, Economics and Philosophy'… Bermúdez has written a remarkable book. We highly recommend it to everyone seeking a fresh perspective on framing and rational decision-making.' Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics'…Frame It Again is an excellent book. The argumentation is clear and to the point, confronting the reader with a compelling defense of framing effects. The examples of rational frames brought forward by the author are convincing and pervasive, ranging from games to political decisions, from mythological and literary characters to our day-to-day life.' Chiara Caporuscio, Philosophical PsychologyTable of Contents1. Priming the pump: Framing and the litany of human irrationality; 2. Framing: The classic experiments; 3. Where the rubber hits the road: Frames, investors, and markets; 4. Juliet's principle; 5. Rational frames; 6. Agamemnon and climate change; 7. Framing temptation and reward: The challenges of self-control; 8. Chickens and chariot races: Framing in game theory; 9. Fair's fair: Framing for cooperation and fairness; 10. Getting past No: Discursive deadlock and the power of frames; 11. Opening the door to non-Archimedean reasoning; Appendix. Frames in the brain

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Book SynopsisIn a fast-moving world, the necessity of making decisions, and preferably good ones, has become even more difficult. One reason is the variety and number of choices perhaps available which often are not presented or understood. Alternatives are often unclear and complex paths to them confusing and misleading. Thus the process of decision making itself requires analysis on an ongoing basis. Decision making is often made based on cultural factors whereas the best alternative might be quite different. The subject touches ethical aspects as well as psychological considerations. This book presents important research on the psychology of decision making related to law and law enforcement, health care and science.

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Book Synopsis

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Book SynopsisIn a fast-moving world, the necessity of making decisions, and preferably good ones, has become even more difficult. One reason is the variety and number of choices perhaps available which often are not presented or understood. Alternatives are often unclear and complex paths to them confusing and misleading. Thus the process of decision making itself requires analysis on an ongoing basis. Decision making is often made based on cultural factors whereas the best alternative might be quite different. The subject touches ethics aspects as well as psychological considerations. This new book presents important research on the psychology of decision making related to health care and medicine.

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Book Synopsis"Pullman offers his readers essential insights into how humans reason and make decisions. Both concise and far-reaching, his work teaches us how to challenge intuitive logic and examine the processes for deliberative reasoning. This text will prove foundational for students in their intellectual journey toward the development of real skills in critical thinking. By pointing to simple yet profound examples, Pullman's text is both readable and provocative as it challenges us to consider the very mechanisms by which we understand our own cognitive biases." --Bradley A. Hammer, Department of English and Comparative Literature, University of North Carolina, Chapel HillTrade Review"A Rulebook for Decision Making is a really helpful set of ideas for those who want to learn more about how decisions are made. It is not a set of rules as much as a set of considerations that can be customized and applied by each reader—in fact, there are a few that I have not seen elsewhere. This is a book that is useful both to readers wanting to understand more about their decision making, and to those studying the topic." --Robert S. Duboff, CEO, HawkPartners

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Book Synopsis"Pullman offers his readers essential insights into how humans reason and make decisions. Both concise and far-reaching, his work teaches us how to challenge intuitive logic and examine the processes for deliberative reasoning. This text will prove foundational for students in their intellectual journey toward the development of real skills in critical thinking. By pointing to simple yet profound examples, Pullman's text is both readable and provocative as it challenges us to consider the very mechanisms by which we understand our own cognitive biases." --Bradley A. Hammer, Department of English and Comparative Literature, University of North Carolina, Chapel HillTrade Review"A Rulebook for Decision Making is a really helpful set of ideas for those who want to learn more about how decisions are made. It is not a set of rules as much as a set of considerations that can be customized and applied by each reader—in fact, there are a few that I have not seen elsewhere. This is a book that is useful both to readers wanting to understand more about their decision making, and to those studying the topic." --Robert S. Duboff, CEO, HawkPartners

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Book SynopsisProcesses of collective decision making are seen throughout modern society. How does a government decide on an investment strategy within the health care and educational sectors? Should a government or a community introduce measures to combat climate change and CO2 emissions, even if others choose not too? Should a country develop a nuclear capability despite the risk that other countries may follow their lead? This introductory text explores the theory of social choice. Social choice theory provides an analysis of collective decision making. The main aim of the book is to introduce students to the various methods of aggregating the preferences of all members of a given society into some social or collective preference. Written as a primer suitable for advanced undergraduates and graduates, this text will act as an important starting point for students grappling with the complexities of social choice theory. With all new chapter exercises this rigorous yet accessible primer avoids the Trade Review...an outstanding Primer for the field of social choice that will surely become a standard reference for those wanting to be initiated in the field. * Cambridge Journals *Table of ContentsGLOSSARY OF MAJOR CONCEPTS; HINTS TO EXERCISES

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Book SynopsisExperience the joy, freedom, and fulfillment God wants for you by learning the key to making God-glorifying choices: the power of pre-decision.What if we actually have the ability to break free from the pitfalls of impulsive decisions and develop positive, godly habits? What if becoming the person you want to be starts now, before you make a decision?Craig Groeschel—author of Winning the War in Your Mind—will empower you to put into action seven life-defining pre-decisions that will help you overcome the daily temptations, distractions, and influences that constantly bombard us. Drawing on Scripture, story, and the latest research into human behavior, Think Ahead will help you: Understand the science behind your decision-making habits. Equip you with the tools to avoid sinful and damaging patterns. Overcome decision fatigue and debilitating fears. See how your small choices shape the kind

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Book SynopsisPre-order now for June 1 sales release.The Foundation for Critical Thinking has developed an authoritative system of competency standards to ensure successful and consistent integration of critical thinking skills in schools and educational programs at every level and in every discipline. The critical thinking competency standards articulated in this guide serve as a resource for teachers, curriculum designers, administrators and accrediting bodies. As part of the Thinker's Guide Library, this book advances the mission of the Foundation for Critical Thinking to promote fairminded critical societies through cultivating essential intellectual abilities and virtues across every field of study across world.

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Book SynopsisThis critical thinking guide introduces concepts and strategies for developing essential reasoning skills and intellectual character. As part of the Thinkerâs Guide Library, this book is an essential resource for students learning new academic disciplines and encountering new situations in life.

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a huge range and FREE tracked UK delivery on ALL orders.

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a huge range and FREE tracked UK delivery on ALL orders.

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a huge range and FREE tracked UK delivery on ALL orders.

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Book SynopsisMany of the complex problems faced by decision makers involve uncertainty as well as multiple conflicting objectives. This book provides a complete understanding of the types of objective functions that should be used in multiattribute decision making. By using tools such as preference, value, and utility functions, readers will learn state-of-the-art methods to analyze prospects to guide decision making and will develop a process that guarantees a defensible analysis to rationalize choices. Summarizing and distilling classical techniques and providing extensive coverage of recent advances in the field, the author offers practical guidance on how to make good decisions in the face of uncertainty. This text will appeal to graduate students and practitioners alike in systems engineering, operations research, business, management, government, climate change, energy, and healthcare.Trade Review'Ali E. Abbas' new book on utility theory is a comprehensive treatment ranging from simple distinctions about facing uncertainty to general multiattribute utility theory. Beginning with a general approach to MAU, it then specializes to show how popular versions, such as additive utility, are actually very restrictive and other simple approaches, such as additive value functions with risk aversion, are much more general. He derives the complete forms of multiattribute utility functions having additive value functions. With utility transversality, he also demonstrates that there is only one dimension of risk attitude, as the value function translates risk attitude across dimensions. Abbas's book promises to be the standard reference work for decades to come.' Jim Matheson, Chairman and CFO, SmartOrg, Inc.'Foundations of Multiattribute Utility provides a much-needed update, a comprehensive structure, and indeed a vision for a field that has blossomed in the forty years since Keeney and Raiffa's Decisions with Multiple Objectives. The book synthesizes recent results by others and by the author, including an elegant copula representation. Thanks to the book's accessible style - which even includes Socratic dialogues - readers will appreciate its place within the rich mathematics of preference and economic utility theory and the rich practice of decision analysis. The book offers many rewards for modelers in these fields, while for researchers it is required reading.' Jeffrey M. Keisler, University of Massachusetts, Boston'The definitive work on preference, value, and utility that can serve the full range of decision situations. If you need to tackle a complex multiattribute preference problem, the answer is in this book. Ali E. Abbas has created a great text of a graduate course and a valuable reference for the practitioner.' Carl Spetzler, Strategic Decisions Group and author of Decision Quality'In Foundations of Multiattribute Utility, Ali E. Abbas has brought together divergent themes of research in decision-making with multiple objectives into a single, coherent whole. This book can serve as an introduction for decision-makers who want to think carefully about making trade-offs. It is also a reference for researchers who want to understand the latest developments in the field. I know I will be keeping this book close at hand in my office for years to come.' Jason Merrick, Virginia Commonwealth University'This book is a long overdue. It is encyclopedic in nature, chronicling many recent developments in utility theory, while summarizing the classical results in the field. The book is a perfect companion to Keeney and Raiffa's (1976) seminal book on multiattribute utility. It should be on the desk of any decision analyst, economist, or statistician who does research in or teaches utility theory.' Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Jr, University of VirginiaTable of ContentsPart I. Foundations of Preference, Value, and Utility: 1. Preference, value, and utility; 2. Foundations of expected utility; 3. Some flawed methods of decision making; Part II. Deterministic Decisions: 4. The order rule: preferences for deterministic consequences; 5. Getting the attributes right; 6. Preference functions for single attributes; 7. Preference functions for multiple attributes; 8. Additive preference functions; 9. Valuing deterministic consequences – value functions; Part III. Decisions with Uncertainty: Multi-attribute Utility Functions Using a Value Measure: 10. Single-attribute utility function; 11. Multi-attribute utility functions using preference and value functions; 12. Utility functions over additive preference or value functions; Part IV. Decisions with Uncertainty: Properties of Single-Attribute Utility Functions: 13. The role of the utility function in valuing uncertain deals; 14. The risk aversion function; 15. Scale transformations applied to lottery outcomes; 16. The invariant transformation of a utility function; 17. Valuing changes in investment opportunities; 18. One-switch utility functions; 19. Utility transversality; 20. Multi-attribute risk aversion; Part V. Decisions with Uncertainty: Multi-attribute Utility Functions without Preference or Value Functions: 21. Attribute dominance utility; 22. The two-attribute utility tree; 23. Independence conditions for two attributes; 24. The multi-attribute utility tree; 25. Independence conditions for three or more attributes; 26. Higher-order independence conditions; 27. One-switch utility independence; Part VI. Utility Copula Formulations: 28. Multi-attribute utility copulas; 29. Archimedean utility copulas; 30. Assessing Archimedean utility copulas; 31. Utility copula functions matching all boundary assessments; 32. Bidirectional one-switch ordinal copulas; 33. Reflections of what we have learned.

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Book SynopsisThe Question is the Answer is a teacher's guide to helping young readers generate text-based questions. The purpose of this book is to help teachers and parents value and promote student-generated questions to facilitate motivation, engagement, and cognitive development.Trade ReviewBrilliant. Molly Ness takes decades of research on the cognitive role of questioning and distills it into concrete plans for classroom practice. The Question is the Answer will bring greater curiosity, learning, and wonderment to any classroom. -- Daniel Willingham, professor, department of psychology, University of Virginia, author of “Why Don't Students Like School?”, “When Can You Trust the Experts?”, and “Raising Kids Who Read”Ness has done it again! This is an innovative and authoritative look at how children use questions to learn, and how we – teachers and parents – can use these questions to improve children’s learning and achievement. This book is scientifically grounded but full of practical guidelines. A brilliant read! -- Laura Justice, EHE distinguished professor, education and human ecology, The Ohio State UniversityI wholeheartedly applaud Dr. Ness for delivering a book that celebrates, encourages, and expands on children’s natural curiosity. The Question is the Answer helps teachers find a way back to joyful, collaborative exploration in the classroom. This book can be used to guide instruction and learning within elementary classrooms or as a tool to promote vertical alignment across the grades. It is a treasure from cover to cover! -- Gary Wellbrock, PhD, first grade teacher (at PS347 The American Sign Language and English Lower School) in ManhattanPresents a highly readable approach on how to enhance comprehension and excitement about learning. Supported by current research and filled with real-world examples and practical strategies that are incredibly useful for parents, teachers, and anyone working with young children. -- Naomi Schimmel, curriculum coordinator, The Shefa SchoolMy visits to elementary classrooms have convinced me that teaching students to generate questions is often a hit-or-miss endeavor. The truth is, being effective requires far more than asking students to ask questions. This is why The Question is the Answer is such an important book. In it, Molly Ness has crafted a superb resource that should be on every teacher’s must-read list. She distills the research evidence into easily understood approaches that together define best practice. Her vignettes illustrate these approaches with true insight, and they reflect a writing style that is both warm and engrossing. I rarely say this about an academic book, but this one’s a page-turner! -- Mike McKenna, Jewel Professor of Reading at the University of VirginiaGrounded in what we know about inquiry, effective teaching, and what it means to learn alongside our students, Ness helps us consider not only the structure and substance of our questions but the ways in which we grow and build questioning skills over time. This book is about far more than a collection of strategies for the classroom (though it has those in abundance). This is a book that challenges us to firmly root schooling in what it means to discover, to question, and to learn. -- Sara Kajder, clinical assistant professor, college of education, University of GeorgiaTable of ContentsPreface Acknowledgements Introduction Chapter One: Inside Inquiry-Based Classrooms: The Research Basis for Question Generation Chapter Two: Tried But True Questioning Strategies Chapter Three: Questioning Inside Kindergarten Classrooms Chapter Four: Questioning Inside First-Grade Classrooms Chapter Five: Questioning Inside Second-Grade Classrooms Chapter Six: Questioning Inside Third-Grade Classrooms Chapter Seven: Questioning Inside Fourth-Grade Classrooms Chapter Eight: Questioning Inside Fifth-Grade Classrooms References

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