Description
Book SynopsisIn this volume, economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time - series analysis.
Table of ContentsAcknowledgments Introduction James H. Stock And Mark W. Watson 1. Twenty-Two Years Of The NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects And Comparisons Of Forecasting Performance Victor Zarnowitz And Phillip Braun Comment: Allen Sinai 2. A Procedure For Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues And Recent Experience James H. Stock And Mark W. Watson Comment: Kenneth F. Wallis 3. Estimating Event Probabilities From Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation Ray C. Fair Comment: James D. Hamilton 4. A Nine Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model Christopher A. Sims Comment: Pierre Perron 5. Why Does The Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity? Benjamin M. Friedman And Kenneth N. Kuttner Comment: Ben S. Bernanke 6. Further Evidence On Business Cycle Duration Dependence Francis X. Diebold, Glenn D. Rudebusch, And Daniel E. Sichel Comment: Bruce E. Hansen 7. Dynamic Index Models For Large Cross Sections Danny Quah And Thomas J. Sargent Comment: John Geweke 8. Modelling Non-Linearity Over The Business Cycle Clive W.J. Granger, Timo Terdsvirta, And Heather Anderson Comment: Andrew Harvey Contributors Author Index Subject Index
