Description
Book SynopsisGerd Gigerenzer''s Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty illustrates how we can learn to make sense of statistics and turn ignorance into insight.
However much we want certainty in our lives, it feels as if we live in an uncertain and dangerous world. But are we guilty of wildly exaggerating the chances of some unwanted event happening to us? Are we misled by our ignorance of the reality of risk?
Far too many of us, argues Gerd Gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy, while statistics are often presented to us in highly confusing ways. With real world examples, such as the incidence of errors in tests for breast cancer or HIV, or in DNA fingerprinting, and the manipulation of statistics for evidence in court, he shows that our difficulty in thinking about numbers can easily be overcome.
''Indispensable ... The book will change the attentive reader''s way of looking at the world''
Sunday Telegraph
Trade Review
"This is an important book, full of relevant examples and worrying case histories. By the end of it, the reader has been presented with a powerful set of tools for understanding statistics...anyone who wants to take responsibly for their own medical choices should read it" - New Scientist
Table of Contents
Part I Dare to know: uncertainty; the illusion of certainty; innumeracy; insight. Part II Understanding uncertainties in the real world: breast cancer screening; (un)informed consent; AIDS counselling; wife battering; experts on trial; DNA fingerprinting; violent people. Part III From innumeracy to insight: how innumeracy can be exploited; fun problems; teaching clear thinking.
