Description
Book SynopsisThis is the long-awaited pocket text on risk assessment for students and professionals in all health and safety fields.
Risk assessment and risk-based decision-making are essential skills in today’s health and safety fields, but a convenient pocket or desk reference has been needed with enough theory to begin a preliminary risk assessment, together with clear explanations, applications, and worked examples. This book addresses that need.
It provides a practical resource for estimating risks in various applications, as well as assisting with the design of larger project-based assessments. It explains the two main numeric procedures: probabilistic, or “catastrophic”, and quantitative, or “chronic”, risk assessment, along with chapters on qualitative risk assessment and approaches to food-related risks. A final chapter examines how people perceive risk, and provides advice and assistance in the development of essential, effective risk communication with the public and with the media. Numerous case studies are analyzed.
Assessment and Communication of Risk: A Pocket Text for Health and Safety Professionals is a one-stop resource for students in all health and safety fields, and provides a valuable guide for existing field practitioners in public health, occupational health and safety, hospitals, environmental assessment offices, and ministries of health, labour, and the environment.
Table of ContentsChapter 1. Risk: Scope, Definitions, and Terminology
1.1 The Scope of Risk Assessment
1.2 Risk management
1.3 Basic Definition of Risk
1.4 Describing risks using the language of probability
1.5 Categorizing risks.
1.5.1 ‘Incremental’ vs. ‘Background’ Risks
1.5.2 ‘Catastrophic’ vs. ‘chronic’ risk
1.6 Risk and Hazard
1.7 Relative risk and odds ratio
1.7.1 Relative Risk
1.7.2 The Odds Ratio (OR).
1.7.3 Weakness in the relative risk and odds ratio.
1.7.4 Understanding confidence intervals
1.8 Case Study 1: Driving or Flying?
Practice exercises, Chapter 1 and solutions
Works Cited: Chapter 1
Chapter 2: Probabilistic Risk Assessment
2.1 Risk and Uncertainty
2.2 Modeling probability
2.3 Addition of Probabilities
2.4 Complementary Events
2.5 Multiplication of Probabilities
2.6 Conditional probabilities
2.7 The Probability Tree
2.8 Using Frequencies or Probabilities
2.9 Order of entering variables into the tree
2.10 Probabilities expressed in disease screening
2.10.1 Disease screening using Bayes’ theorem
2.10.2 Disease screening using sensitivity and specificity
2.11 When a variable’s independence is missing or uncertain
2.12 Calculation of “at least one” outcome (with multiple iterations).
2.13 Probabilities: a summary
2.14 Case Study 2: Challenger Shuttle Disaster
Practice exercises: Chapter 2 and solutions
Works Cited: Chapter 2.
Chapter 3: Quantitative Risk Assessment
3.1 Scope of Quantitative Risk Assessment
3.1.1 Long-term exposures
3.1.2 The maximally exposed individual (MEI).
3.1.3 The four-step risk assessment model
3.2 Hazard Identification (Step one)
3.2.1 Data from the site
3.2.2 Assessing carcinogens and non-carcinogens
3.2.3 The US EPA IRIS Database
3.2.4 Changing chemicals over time
3.2.5 Toxicity Scores
3.3 Dose-Response Assessment (Step Two)
3.3.1 Limited human data.
3.3.2 Carcinogens and non-carcinogens
3.3.3 Three-step model of carcinogenesis
3.3.4 Threshold models
3.3.5 Target organs and systems
3.3.6 ‘Dose’ vs ‘dosage’
3.3.7 NOAEL/LOAEL
3.3.8 LD50
3.3.9 The Slope Factor for carcinogens
3.3.10 Special note about ‘inhalation’ and ‘fugitive dust.’
3.3.11 Sources of toxicological data
3.3.12 Safety factors for non-carcinogens (ADI, RfD).
3.4 Exposure Assessment (Step 3)
3.4.1 Components of the pathway
3.4.2 The migration/movement of substances
3.4.3 Identifying exposed individuals
3.4.4 Development of exposure scenarios
3.4.5 Exposure point concentrations
3.4.6 Bioconcentration factor (BCF).
3.4.7 Incorporating other models
3.4.8 Dose categories
3.4.9 Calculating the chronic daily intake (CDI).
3.4.10 Helpful hints in preparing to calculating intake
3.4.11 Worked intake calculations
3.5 Risk Characterization [Step 4]
3.5.1 Translating chronic daily intake to Risk
3.5.2 Lack of epidemiological data.
3.5.3 Do we use the ‘mean’ or ‘maximum’ concentration data?
3.5.4 Calculation of the carcinogenic risk
3.5.5 Use of de minimis to characterize carcinogenic risk.
3.5.6 The Delaney Clause
3.5.7 Options for reducing carcinogenic risk.
3.5.8 Calculation of a non-carcinogenic hazard index
3.5.9 RfC and IUR use
3.5.10 Characterizing groups of carcinogenic substances in the same medium
3.5.11 Characterizing groups of non-carcinogens in the same medium
3.5.12 Conversions: ppm to mg/L etc.
3.6 Critical perspectives of the risk-assessment process.
3.6.1 Excessive use of “worst-case” compounded
3.6.2 The toxicological parameters
3.6.3 ‘Conservative estimates’
3.6.4 Missed transformation and transport mechanisms
3.6.5 Inappropriate statistical assumptions and methods
3.6.6 Over-use of anthropometric parameter tables
3.6.7 Questionable ‘additive’ model for non-carcinogens
3.6.8 Omitted relationship to background risk
3.6.9 The need to consider variability and uncertainty
3.7 Deterministic vs stochastic risk assessment
3.8 Quantitative Risk Assessment: CASE STUDIES #3-11
3.8.1 Case Study 3: US EPA recall due to arsenic
3.8.2 Case Study 4: Hazardous waste site, Lackawanna, Pennsylvania
3.8.3 Case Study 5: Poyang Lake
3.8.4 Case Study 6: Acrylamide
3.8.5 Case Study 7: Mercury in fish
3.8.6 Case Study 8: Application of newsprint to farmland
3.8.7 Case-Study 9: PCB spill on the road in Northern Ontario
3.8.8 Case Study 10: Benzene in domestic water due to industry
3.8.9 Case Study 11: Residential water contamination by metal plating works
3.8.10 Solutions for Case Studies
Practical Exercises: Chapter 3 and Solutions
Works Cited: Chapter 3
Chapter 4: Qualitative Risk Assessment Methods
4.1 Preliminary Risk Analysis (PRA)
4.1.1 PRA in linear/descriptive format
4.1.2 PRA in tabular format
4.2 Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA)
4.3 Root-cause analysis (RCA) using a fault tree (FTA)
4.4 Management oversight and Risk Tree (MORT) Analysis
4.5 Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) Analysis
4.6 Case study 12: Using FMEA & MORT following a petrochemical fire
4.7 Case Study 13: Using HAZOP during Decommissioning a reactor
Works Cited: Chapter 4
Chapter 5: Risk Assessment in Food Safety and Foodborne Illness
5.1 Scope of Foodborne Illness.
5.2 Root-cause analysis
5.3 Hazard Analysis, Critical Control Point (HACCP) methods
5.3.1 HACCP was first developed
5.3.2 Identifying the hazards
5.3.3 A Process Flow Diagram
5.3.4 Validation of the HACCP plan
5.3.5 Limitations of HACCP
5.3.6 The difference between HACCP and ISO 22000
5.4 Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA)
5.5 Quantitative Food Risk Assessment
5.5.1 Quantitative Risk Assessment-Epidemic Curve Prediction Model (QRA-EC)
5.5.2 A Stochastic (Monte Carlo) model for multifactorial analysis of norovirus
5.6 Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) ERA model
Works Cited: Chapter 5
Chapter 6: Communicating Risk
6.1 We have the numbers: Now what?
6.2 The decline in trust and credibility.
6.2.1 Poor management in high-profile health crises
6.2.2 Loss of trust in traditional sources
6.2.3 A major obstacle to effective communication
6.2.4 A proxy for trust
6.2.5 The risk information vacuum
6.3 Layperson vs Expert: Two perceptions of risk
6.4 Understanding the dynamics of outrage
6.5 Identifying different needs, roles, and approaches to risk communication
6.5.1 Four communication models.
6.5.2 Anticipating conflict and disagreement
6.6 Inherent difficulties to be prepared for in all risk communication
6.6.1 Asymmetry produced by media in attempting “balance”.
6.6.2 “Duelling PhDs”
6.6.3 Changes in estimates or new information
6.6.4 Assurances that are too assertive
6.6.5 Be alert to sensitizing events
6.6.6 The untrusted messenger
6.6.7 Language and meaning of risk assessment: “Conservative estimate”.
6.6.8 Clarity and Transparency
6.6.9 Very large or very small numbers
6.6.10 Exponential misconceptions
6.6.11 Comparing risks for better effect
6.7 The media interview
6.7.1 Cultivate relationships with the media
6.7.2 Preparing for the interview
6.7.3 The media request an interview now
6.7.4 The interview: checklist
6.8 The ‘town hall’ or community meeting
6.8.1 Make sure all groups and stakeholders are invited
6.8.2 Organizing and planning the meeting
6.8.3 Length of presentation
6.8.4 The presentation at the meeting
6.8.5 Following up on commitments
6.9 The Seven Questions to prepare for any risk communication
6.10 An in-depth examination of delayed notification (#4)
6.11 Case Studies in Risk Communication for illustration and discussion
6.11.1 Case Study 14: Helping to interpret 10–6
6.11.2 Case Study 15: Uncertainty can increase trust
6.11.3 Case Study 16: Getting to “Maybe”
6.11.4 Case Study 17: Off the record
6.11.5 Case Study 18: Interview with information
6.11.6 Case Study 19: The BSE risk-communication failure
6.11.7 Case Study 20: Dioxin in Animal Feed
6.11.8 Case Study 21: 400,000 ill in Milwaukee
6.11.9 Case Study 22: Johnson & Johnson: Demonstrating responsiveness
6.11.10 Case Study 23: Don’t repeat a false statement
Works Cited: Chapter 6
Glossary
Index
