A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations.
Contains an extended case study based on a real application in railway security, which
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"This well-written and concise text is an introduction to the field of adversarial risk analysis (ARA), which is a form of decision and risk analysis which incorporates uncertainty and game theory to model strategies of an adversary…There is an appropriate amount of detail throughout the book, making it suitable for a reference text as well as a book which may be read cover to cover and it is both thought provoking and enlightening."
—Matthew Craven, Plymouth University, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, January 2017
"Here, Banks (Duke Univ.), Rios (IBM), and Insua (ICMAT-CSIC, Spain) identify three categories of uncertainty for the strategist: aleatory uncertainty—nondeterminism of outcomes even after players make choices; epistemic uncertainty—hidden information concerning opponents' preferences, beliefs, and capabilities; and concept uncertainty—hidden information concerning opponents' strategies. Adversarial risk analysis, a new field with roots in modern efforts to defeat terrorism, provides a framework, in principle, to cope with these uncertainties. Solving the models seems generally intractable, but the heart of the book, the first of its kind, offers exemplary case studies. Summing up: Recommended. Lower-division undergraduates and above; informed general audiences."
—D. V. Feldman, University of New Hampshire, Durham, USA, for CHOICE, March 2016
Table of Contents
Games and Decisions. Simultaneous Games. Auctions. Sequential Games. Variations on Sequential Defend-Attack Games. A Security Case Study. Other Issues. Solutions to Selected Exercises. References. Index.
