Description
Book SynopsisKen Fisher explains what the competition doesn't know From investment expert and long-time Forbes columnist Ken Fisher comes the Second Edition of The Only Three Questions That Count. Most investors know the only way to consistently beat the markets is by knowing things others don't.
Table of ContentsPreface ix
Acknowledgments xix
1 Question One: What Do You Believe That Is Actually False? 1
If You Knew It Was Wrong, You Wouldn’t Believe It 1
The Mythological Correlation 8
Always Look at It Differently 15
When You Are Really, Really Wrong 21
2 Question Two: What Can You Fathom That Others Find Unfathomable? 31
Fathoming the Unfathomable 31
Ignore the Rock in the Bushes 32
Discounting the Media Machine and Advanced Fad Avoidance 33
The Shocking Truth About Yield Curves 38
What the Yield Curve Is Trying to Tell You 49
The Presidential Term Cycle 57
3 Question Three: What the Heck Is My Brain Doing to Blindside Me Now? 67
It’s Not Your Fault—Blame Evolution 67
Cracking the Stone Age Code—Pride and Regret 72
The Great Humiliator’s Favorite Tricks 85
Get Your Head Out of the Cave 87
4 Capital Markets Technology 95
Building and Putting Capital Markets Technology Into Practice 95
It’s Good While It Lasts 100
Forecast With Accuracy, Not Like a Professional 105
Better Living Through Global Benchmarking 113
5 When There’s No There, There! 131
Johns Hopkins, My Grampa, Life Lessons and Pulling a Gertrude 131
In the Center Ring—Oil Versus Stocks 136
Sell in May Because the January Effect Will Dampen Your Santa Claus Rally Unless There Is a Witching Effect 148
6 No, It’s Just The Opposite 155
When You Are Wrong—Really, Really, Really Wrong 155
Multiplier Effects and the Heroin-Addicted iPod Borrower 163
Let’s Trade This Defi cit for That One 170
The New Gold Standard 175
7 Shocking But True 185
Supply and Demand . . . and That’s It 185
Weak Dollar, Strong Dollar—What Does It Matter? 200
8 The Great Humiliator and Your Stone Age Brain 213
That Predictable Market 213
Anatomy of a Bubble 221
Some Basic Bear Rules 229
What Causes a Bear Market? 244
9 Putting It All Together 251
Stick With Your Strategy and Stick It to Him 251
Four Rules That Count 257
Finally! How to Pick Stocks That Only Win 274
When the Heck Do You Sell? 281
Conclusion: Time to Say Goodbye 289
Transformationalism 290
Appendix A: Causal Correlations and the Correlation Coefficient 295
Appendix B: News You Can’t Use 299
Appendix C: Greater Fools 301
Appendix D: I Hate Funds 303
Appendix E: Annualized Versus Average 307
Appendix F: The Wizard of Oz and an OZ of Gold 309
Appendix G: 1980 Revisited 313
Appendix H: Popular But Problematic 317
Appendix I: Covered Calls—Covering What? 321
Notes 323
About the Authors 329
Index 331
