Description
Book SynopsisThis book is about how climate science works and why you should absolutely trust some of its conclusions and absolutely distrust others. Climate change raises new, foundational challenges in science. It requires us to question what we know and how we know it. The subject is important for society but the science is young and history tells us that scientists can get things wrong before they get them right. How, then, can we judge what information is reliable and what is open to question? Stainforth goes to the heart of the climate change problem to answer this question. He describes the fundamental characteristics of climate change and shows how they undermine the application of traditional research methods, demanding new approaches to both scientific and societal questions. He argues for a rethinking of how we go about the study of climate change in the physical sciences, the social sciences, economics, and policy. The subject requires nothing less than a restructuring of academic resea
Trade ReviewClimate is, in some respects, highly predictable; yet, in other respects, highly unpredictable. But there is no contradiction. The resolution of this seeming paradox in Predicting Our Climate Future leads in turn to a vision for how humankind must respond to this most important problem of all time. * George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2001 *
A profound yet very accessible guide to climate science, highlighting the significant uncertainties without apology. This book explains clearly why doubt creates a greater and more urgent need to act now to build a better future. * Trevor Maynard, Executive Director of Systemic Risks, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies *
The immense complexity of the climate system raises deep questions about what science can usefully say about the future. David Stainforth navigates philosophical and mathematical questions that could hardly be of greater practical importance. He questions what it is reasonable to ask of climate scientists and his conclusions challenge the way in which science should be conducted in the future. * Jim Hall, Professor of Climate and Environmental Risk, University of Oxford *
Is the science settled? Are climate models rubbish? Stainforth's book serves up nuanced answers to big questions in climate science, in an easy conversational style. * Cameron Hepburn, Professor of Environmental Economics, University of Oxford *
A thoughtful exploration of the foundations and limitations of climate prediction that explains how its chaotic and probabilistic nature lead to deep uncertainty when assessing climate risk. * Ramalingam Saravanan, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University *
Predicting Our Climate Future is an erudite and very personal reflection on climate change, the state of climate science, and their implications for the decisions society needs to take. It should be top of the reading list for scientists, practitioners and anyone who wants to truly comprehend the challenge of climate prediction. * Simon Dietz, Professor of Environmental Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science *
A provocative contribution to the literature of climate change. * Kirkus *
Predicting Our Climate Future is an ambitious exploration of a critical topic. It is a recommended read for climate scientists, especially those trying to model the future, for the researchers-in many disciplines-that are focused on understanding and forecasting the physical and human impacts of the coming climate changes, and for policy makers engaged in climate issues. * Steven Earle, New York Journal of Books *
Intelligent, accessible, well reasoned and working very hard to get it's teeth into a complex but vitally important issue. * Irish Tech News *
Fascinating...[there is a] a refreshing honesty [in Stainforth's writing] about the limitations we have with certain kinds of prediction. * Brian Clegg, Popular Science *
Stainforth is good at explaining the complexities [of climate modelling], leavening the highly technical bits with ... lots of relatable real-world analogies. * Geordie Torr, The Geographical *
Table of ContentsSection 1 Chapter 1: The obvious and the obscure Chapter 2: A problem of prediction Chapter 3: Going beyond what we've seen Chapter 4: The one-shot bet. Chapter 5: From chaos to pandemonium Chapter 6: The curse of bigger and better computers Chapter 7: Talking at cross purposes Chapter 8: Not just of academic interest Section 2 Challenge 1: How to balance justified arrogance with essential humility. Chapter 9 - Stepping up to the task of prediction Chapter 10 The Times They Are A Changin' Chapter 11 Starting from scratch Chapter 12 Are scientists being asked to answer impossible questions? Challenge 2: Tying down what we mean by climate and climate change. Chapter 13 The essence of climate Chapter 14 A Walk in Three Dimensions Chapter 15 A walk in three dimensions over a two dimensional sea Challenge 3: When is a study with a climate model a study of climate change? Chapter 16 Climate change in climate models Challenge 4: How can we measure what climate is now and how it has changed? Chapter 17 Measuring climate change Challenge 5: How can we relate what happens in a model to what will happen in reality? Chapter 18 - Can climate models be realistic? Chapter 19 More models, better information? Chapter 20 How bad is too bad? Challenge 6: How can we use today's climate science well? Chapter 21 - What we do with what we've got Challenge 7: Getting a grip on the scale of future changes in climate? Chapter 22 - Stuff of the Genesis myth Chapter 23 Things ... can only get hotter Challenge 8: How can we use the information we have, or could have, to design a future that is better than it would otherwise be? Chapter 24 - Making it personal Chapter 25 - Where physics and economics meet. Challenge 9: How can we build physical and social science that is up to the task of informing society about what matters for society? Chapter 26 - Controlling factors. Chapter 27 - Beyond comprehension? No, just new challenges for human intellect.
