Description
Book SynopsisCan we predict cataclysmic disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, or stock market crashes? This book asks why catastrophes such as these catch us by surprise, and reveals the history and groundbreaking science behind efforts to forecast major disasters and minimize their destruction.
Trade ReviewOne of Choice's Outstanding Academic Titles for 2010 "He is at his best when discussing matters closest to his own field, celestial mathematics; and he makes a compelling case for developing the means, as the Russians appear to be doing, of batting asteroids out of humanity's ballpark."--Trevor Butterworth, Wall Street Journal "Author and mathematics professor Diacu (Celestial Encounters: The Origins of Chaos and Stability) presents a civilian-friendly guide to methods, like numerical modeling, used to understand, quantify, and possibly predict disasters. Written simply but without being simplistic, Diacu's text is driven by enthusiasm for his field and its potential for solving some of humanity's big problems. In nine chapters, Diacu examines natural disasters--volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, hurricanes and typhoons, tsunamis and floods--but also takes time to examine human-driven disasters: financial collapse, pandemic disease, and climate change. Diacu chronicles the history of each field of prediction clearly and concisely, illustrating how developments in mathematics drove developments in geology, and vice-versa, as well as the unpredictable variables as dictated by 'the monkey in the machine,' chaos theory. A chapter on climate change is particularly insightful and important. Few non-scientists understand how climate models work, but it would dispel a lot of skepticism if they did; Diacu manages it in just seven pages, in language anyone can understand."--Publishers Weekly, starred review "The result is an excellent history of natural disasters and of the science behind understanding and mitigating those disasters. For a who's who of volcanic eruptions, major earthquakes, big hurricanes, asteroid near-hits or historic pandemics, this book is the place to go."--Kristina Bartlett Brody, Science News "Diacu's little histories of predicting eight varieties of disaster are pretty absorbing and informative."--Ray Olson, Booklist "Diacu is a mathematician who uses his professional and outstanding literary skills to provide a remarkable analysis of the 'science' of prediction... In an age where the news media and large sections of society seem to feast on dire predictions and the threat of many 'imminent' disasters, Megadisasters should be required reading for all intelligent human beings."--Choice "Our desire to predict the future is certainly an interesting story that has led to some fascinating work, and it is well described here. Diacu takes us for a good tour of the science behind predictions in areas as diverse as mudslides, financial crashes, epidemics and climate change. And there are also exciting stories, like the one about the first people to fly into the eye of a hurricane."--David Orrell, Literary Review of Canada
Table of ContentsPrologue: Glimpsing the Future xi Chapter 1: Walls of Water: Tsunamis 1 Chapter 2: Land in Upheaval: Earthquakes 21 Chapter 3: Chimneys of Hell: Volcanic Eruptions 42 Chapter 4: Giant Whirlwinds: Hurricanes, Cyclones, and Typhoons 63 Chapter 5: Mutant Seasons: Rapid Climate Change 86 Chapter 6: Earth in Collision: Cosmic Impacts 109 Chapter 7: Economic Breakdown: Financial Crashes 128 Chapter 8: Tiny Killers: Pandemics 149 Chapter 9: Models and Prediction: How Far Can We Go? 168 Acknowledgments 179 Notes 181 Selected Bibliography 189 Index 193
