Description
Book SynopsisBestselling author, Jack Schwager, challenges the assumptions at the core of investment theory and practice and exposes common investor mistakes, missteps, myths, and misreads
When it comes to investment models and theories of how markets work, convenience usually trumps reality. The simple fact is that many revered investment theories and market models are flatly wrongthat is, if we insist that they work in the real world. Unfounded assumptions, erroneous theories, unrealistic models, cognitive biases, emotional foibles, and unsubstantiated beliefs all combine to lead investors astrayprofessionals as well as novices. In this engaging new book, Jack Schwager, bestselling author of Market Wizards and The New Market Wizards, takes aim at the most perniciously pervasive academic precepts, money management canards, market myths and investor errors. Like so many ducks in a shooting gallery, Schwager picks them off, one at a time, revealing the truth about many
Trade Review
Everybody, and I mean everybody who has an investment portfolio will profit from reading this book kudos to the author for offering the investing world an uncommonly worthwhile book. (forexpros.com, 12th Novemebr 2012) Mr Schwager s book starts off with plenty of sound, basic advice before expertly demonstrating that a leveraged exchange traded fund is a dreadful investment because of its structure, being almost bound to disappoint (The Economist, January 2013) Full of common sense (Pensions World, February 2013)
Table of Contents
Foreword xv
Prologue xvii
Part One Markets, Return, and Risk
Chapter 1 Expert Advice 3
Comedy Central versus CNBC 3
The Elves Index 6
Paid Advice 8
Investment Insights 11
Chapter 2 The Deficient Market Hypothesis 13
The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Empirical Evidence 14
The Price is Not Always Right 15
The Market is Collapsing; Where is the News? 24
The Disconnect between Fundamental Developments and Price Moves 27
Price Moves Determine Financial News 37
Is It Luck or Skill? Exhibit A: The Renaissance Medallion Track Record 39
The Flawed Premise of the Efficient Market Hypothesis: A Chess Analogy 40
Some Players are Not Even Trying to Win 42
The Missing Ingredient 44
Right for the Wrong Reason: Why Markets are Difficult to Beat 47
Diagnosing the Flaws of the Efficient Market Hypothesis 49
Why the Efficient Market Hypothesis is Destined for the Dustbin of Economic Theory 50
Investment Insights 52
Chapter 3 The Tyranny of Past Returns 55
S&P Performance in Years Following High- and Low-Return Periods 57
Implications of High- and Low-Return Periods on Longer-Term Investment Horizons 59
Is There a Benefit in Selecting the Best Sector? 63
Hedge Funds: Relative Performance of the Past Highest-Return Strategy 70
Why Do Past High-Return Sectors and Strategy Styles Perform So Poorly? 77
Wait a Minute. Do We Mean to Imply . . . ? 78
Investment Insights 85
Chapter 4 The Mismeasurement of Risk 87
Worse Than Nothing 87
Volatility as a Risk Measure 88
The Source of the Problem 92
Hidden Risk 95
Evaluating Hidden Risk 100
The Confusion between Volatility and Risk 103
The Problem with Value at Risk (VaR) 105
Asset Risk: Why Appearances May Be Deceiving, or Price Matters 107
Investment Insights 109
Chapter 5 Why Volatility is Not Just about Risk, and the Case of Leveraged ETFs 111
Leveraged ETFs: What You Get May Not Be What You Expect 112
Investment Insights 121
Chapter 6 Track Record Pitfalls 123
Hidden Risk 123
The Data Relevance Pitfall 124
When Good Past Performance is Bad 126
The Apples-and-Oranges Pitfall 128
Longer Track Records Could Be Less Relevant 129
Investment Insights 132
Chapter 7 Sense and Nonsense about Pro Forma Statistics 133
Investment Insights 136
Chapter 8 How to Evaluate Past Performance 137
Why Return Alone is Meaningless 137
Risk-Adjusted Return Measures 142
Visual Performance Evaluation 156
Investment Insights 166
Chapter 9 Correlation: Facts and Fallacies 169
Correlation Defined 169
Correlation Shows Linear Relationships 170
The Coefficient of Determination (r2) 171
Spurious (Nonsense) Correlations 171
Misconceptions about Correlation 173
Focusing on the Down Months 176
Correlation versus Beta 179
Investment Insights 182
Part Two Hedge Funds as an Investment
Chapter 10 The Origin of Hedge Funds 185
Chapter 11 Hedge Funds 101 195
Differences between Hedge Funds and Mutual Funds 196
Types of Hedge Funds 200
Correlation with Equities 210
Chapter 12 Hedge Fund Investing: Perception and Reality 211
The Rationale for Hedge Fund Investment 213
Advantages of Incorporating Hedge Funds in a Portfolio 214
The Special Case of Managed Futures 215
Single-Fund Risk 217
Investment Insights 220
Chapter 13 Fear of Hedge Funds: It’s Only Human 223
A Parable 223
Fear of Hedge Funds 225
Chapter 14 The Paradox of Hedge Fund of Funds Underperformance 231
Investment Insights 236
Chapter 15 The Leverage Fallacy 239
The Folly of Arbitrary Investment Rules 241
Leverage and Investor Preference 242
When Leverage is Dangerous 243
Investment Insights 245
Chapter 16 Managed Accounts: An Investor-Friendly Alternative to Funds 247
The Essential Difference between Managed Accounts and Funds 248
The Major Advantages of a Managed Account 249
Individual Managed Accounts versus Indirect Managed Account Investment 250
Why Would Managers Agree to Managed Accounts? 251
Are There Strategies That are Not Amenable to Managed Accounts? 253
Evaluating Four Common Objections to Managed Accounts 253
Investment Insights 259
Postscript to Part Two: Are Hedge Fund Returns a Mirage? 261
Part Three Portfolio Matters
Chapter 17 Diversification: Why 10 is Not Enough 267
The Benefits of Diversification 267
Diversification: How Much is Enough? 268
Randomness Risk 269
Idiosyncratic Risk 272
A Qualification 273
Investment Insights 274
Chapter 18 Diversification: When More is Less 277
Investment Insights 281
Chapter 19 Robin Hood Investing 283
A New Test 286
Why Rebalancing Works 290
A Clarification 291
Investment Insights 292
Chapter 20 Is High Volatility Always Bad? 295
Investment Insights 299
Chapter 21 Portfolio Construction Principles 301
The Problem with Portfolio Optimization 301
Eight Principles of Portfolio Construction 305
Correlation Matrix 309
Going Beyond Correlation 310
Investment Insights 314
Epilogue 32 Investment Observations 315
Appendix A Options—Understanding the Basics 319
Appendix B Formulas for Risk-Adjusted Return Measures 323
Sharpe Ratio 323
Sortino Ratio 324
Symmetric Downside-Risk Sharpe Ratio 325
Gain-to-Pain Ratio (GPR) 326
Tail Ratio 326
MAR and Calmar Ratios 326
Return Retracement Ratio 327
Acknowledgments 329
About the Author 331
Index 333
