Search results for ""centre for strategic international studies,u.s.""

As the United States and China mark their 40th anniversary of formal diplomatic relations in 2019, the world’s most important bilateral relationship is increasingly defined by mistrust, competition, and uncertainty. After four decades of deepening economic integration, the talk in Washington today is about the extent to which the two economies will “decouple” over the years ahead. We drew on several different academic disciplines to help us model how an economic conflict between the United States and China could escalate and eventually de-escalate. Despite the challenges inherent in modelling economic conflict, our model was validated to a surprising extent by both our simulations and real-world developments. The project produced several findings that were both unexpected and relevant to policy, including that economic conflict is likely to be an enduring feature of the U.S.-China relationship for many years to come. Until perceptions of relative costs in the two countries shift, Washington and Beijing seem set on a path of continued escalation, no substantial trade deal, and at least partial decoupling of their economies. Reflecting on these findings, the report also provides recommendations for U.S. policymakers seeking to engage in successful economic bargaining with China.

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As policymakers confront the ongoing challenge of radicalization and violent extremism, it is important that stakeholders and counterterrorism strategists recognize the critical role for development and other non-kinetic approaches to counter violent extremism. To that end, this new anthology takes a multidimensional role mapping out the role of soft power institutions in enabling lasting peace, prosperity, and global security.

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Significant diminishment of the Arctic ice cap is propelling the advent of a new, blue water ocean and, with it, new commercial and economic opportunities. Abundant natural and mineral resources, as well as rich fishing stocks, encourage Arctic and non-Arctic nations to explore these resources through the enhanced use of Arctic maritime transportation routes, which connect geographically distant economies more directly. As a result, the evolving commercial dynamics of Arctic international shipping—both destinational and transshipment—are beginning to change. Once considered dangerous and noncommercial, Arctic shipping routes such as the Northern Sea Route are increasingly scrutinized as potential economical alternatives to some of the world’s most popular maritime passages.

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This report is the second in an annual series examining trends in what the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) is buying, how DoD is buying it, and from whom DoD is buying. This year’s study looks in depth at issues in research and development, acquisition reform in the FY2017 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), performance of the defense acquisition system, the future of cooperative International Joint Development Programs, and major trends apparent in the activities of the major defense components. By combining detailed policy and data analysis, the study provides a comprehensive overview of the current and future outlook for defense acquisition.

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Armenia in a Reconnecting Eurasia examines the full scope of Armenian national interests in the wider Eurasian region and analyzes the broad outlines of Armenian engagement over the coming years. It is part of a four-part CSIS series, “The South Caucasus in a Reconnecting Eurasia,” which includes studies focusing on Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the South Caucasus.

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Technology innovations in the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) have delivered unmatched national security capability for the United States for the greater part of the last seven decades. Federal research and development funding is at the heart of the U.S. high-technology advantage. Continuing to push the technology envelope is central to maintaining U.S. preeminence in military capability. As Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter made clear in his Silicon Valley speech in April 2015, “threats to our security and our country’s technological superiority are proliferating and diversifying.” The U.S. global lead in defense technology is being actively eroded by potential competitors who themselves are pursuing advanced technologies to develop asymmetric capabilities that challenge the U.S. ability to carry out critical missions. This report explores the context of the global innovation environment that is driving the need for DoD to better connect with the global commercial economy. Through an expansive set of interviews with experts, practitioners, and senior officials, the CSIS study team developed a set of recommendations, divided here into two general proposals: (1) encourage better awareness of outside innovation; and (2) enable better access to that outside innovation once it has been identified.

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This volume explores the complex interrelationships among China, the United States, and the Middle East—what the authors call the “vital triangle.” There is surely much to be gained from continuing the conventional two-dimensional analysis—China and the United States, the United States and the Middle East, and China and the Middle East. Such scholarship has a long history and no doubt a long future. But it is the three-dimensional equation—which seeks to understand the effects of the China–Middle East relationship on the United States, the U.S.–Middle East relationship on China, and the Sino-American relationship on the Middle East—that draws the authors’ attention. This approach captures the true dynamics of change in world affairs and the spiraling up and down of national interests. Central to this analysis is a belief that if any one of the three sides of this triangular relationship is unhappy, it has the power to make the other two unhappy as well. The stakes and the intimacy of the interrelationship highlight not only the importance of reaching accommodation, but also the potential payoff of agreement on common purpose.

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Bilateral and multilateral development agencies use guarantees in order to reduce investors’ exposure to risks and to attract private capital to developing countries. A guarantee is a legally-binding agreement under which the guarantor agrees to pay part or all of the amount due on a loan, or other financial instrument, in the event of non-payment. Across the developing world, there are places where having access to the right guarantee product will enable investments that would otherwise have been blocked—where the returns are there, but the risks involved simply exceed market tolerances, or where regulations limit investors’ ability to bear risk. These opportunities are waiting to be seized by bilateral development agencies and development finance institutions (DFIs), who have the flexibility to innovate. Multilateral development banks (MDBs) are the dominant providers of guarantees in certain market segments, where their ability to influence government behavior and to reduce (rather than merely reallocate) risks on the ground gives them a natural advantage. That said, their accounting practices, treatment by regulators, and business models can also constrain them. In other market segments, specialized guarantee providers or DFIs can create tailored guarantees, pricing them in a way that creates a commercially appealing proposition whilst still earning market rates of return on their capital. This report sets out to present the virtues and shortcomings of scaling the use of guarantees, with a special focus on opportunities for innovation by actors that operate outside the established MDB business model. Since guarantees are not a form of financial flow (unless circumstances require calling the guarantee, with the guarantor assuming the debt of the borrower), they differ from other development finance instruments in terms of structuring, costs, and objectives.

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Most violent conflicts since the turn of this century were in countries that had experienced an earlier violent conflict. How can we tell when a country is likely to remain stuck in a cycle of violence? What factors suggest it might be “ripe” for stabilizing and peace building? The authors studied four cases: Chad is stuck in a cycle of violence, while El Salvador, Laos, and Mozambique have had different results in their transitions from violence to stability to peace. Conflicts without internal cohesion of combatants or pressure from foreign patrons to stop fighting are probably not ripe for stabilizing. Where there are subnational or regional actors committed to violence, post-conflict peace building is not likely to succeed without enforcement capacity to contain violence or demonstrated commitments to increasing political inclusion and making material improvements in the lives of residents.

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This report discusses the estimated $1 trillion annual global infrastructure gap and provides recommendations on how U.S. agencies and multilateral development banks can better incentivize private-sector investment in global infrastructure. While many private companies are looking to support infrastructure projects with readily available capital, they have not found a viable project pipeline. The study first provides background on the global infrastructure gap and explores the current state of play of the various public, private, and multilateral actors who work on infrastructure projects in the United States and globally. It then discusses three important areas of needed reform: project preparation, product innovation, and foreign government capacity building. It concludes with targeted recommendations for the multilateral development banks and U.S. agencies that work on infrastructure, with a focus on creating an expanded pipeline of projects that are bankable for the private sector. The study also presents two case studies of World Bank-funded infrastructure projects in Mali and Cape Verde to illuminate the challenges related to financing and implementing infrastructure that are discussed in the broader report.

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