Search results for ""centre for strategic international studies,u.s.""

After more than a decade of fighting in Afghanistan, the United States and its allies are set to transfer security responsibilities to Afghan forces in 2014. This transition poses many challenges, and much will depend on the future of Afghan politics, governance, corruption, development, security, and economics. How the United States manages the transition is vital for any hopes of creating a secure Afghanistan, as well as preventing the reemergence of the Taliban and other terrorist groups. The Afghan War in 2013 honestly assesses the benefits, costs, and risks involved in transition. It is essential reading for an in-depth understanding of the complex forces and intricacies of the United States’ role in Afghanistan and the difficulties involved in creating a stable Afghanistan in 2014 and beyond. Afghanistan is still at war and will probably be at war long after 2014. At the same time, the coming cuts in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and cuts in military and civil aid, along with the country’s fractious politics and insecurity, will interact with a wide range of additional factors that threaten to derail the transition. These factors, examined in this three-volume study, highlight the need to make the internal political, governmental, economic, and security dimensions of the transition as effective as possible. This will require a new degree of realism about what the Afghans can and cannot accomplish, about the best approaches to shaping the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), and the need for better planned and managed outside aid.

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Following the U.S. killing of Qasem Soleimani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF), the United States and Iran are involved in an escalating conflict. What is badly needed now is a coherent long-term U.S. strategy to deal with Iran in ways that protect U.S. national security and leverage U.S. partners. The United States’ “maximum pressure” campaign has not led to a change in Iran’s behavior—at least not yet—though U.S. sanctions have severely damaged Iran’s economy. As this CSIS report highlights with new data and analysis, the IRGC-QF has supported a growing number of non-state fighters in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan, and Pakistan—including nearly a 50 percent increase since 2016. Thanks to Iran, these forces are better equipped with more sophisticated weapons and systems. This report also uses satellite imagery to identify an expansion of IRGC-QF-linked bases in countries like Iran and Lebanon to train non-state fighters. Iran has constructed more sophisticated and longer-range ballistic and cruise missiles and conducted missile attacks against countries like Saudi Arabia. In addition, Iran has developed offensive cyber capabilities and used them against the United States and its partners. In the nuclear arena, Iran has ended commitments it made to limit uranium enrichment, production, research, and expansion—raising the prospect of Iranian nuclear weapons. Moving forward, the United States should implement a containment strategy against Iran that attempts to de-escalate the current military situation and work toward achieving several goals: Prevent Iran from becoming a regional hegemon capable of dominating other states in the Middle East. Stop nuclear proliferation in the region and prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, including thwarting Iran from pursuing weapons-grade uranium enrichment, warhead development, and plutonium reprocessing. Curb significant Iranian military, political, and ideological expansion in the region, including the export of Iran’s revolutionary ideology. Encourage a process of change inside Iran toward a more pluralistic political and economic system in which the power of the clerical establishment is gradually reduced. This report highlights a range of weaknesses that make Iran vulnerable to containment and lays out the political, military, economic, and informational components of such a strategy. The United States needs to credibly demonstrate that its policy toward Iran is not a blueprint for an endless struggle, but instead an effort to encourage Iran to be more democratic and open, as political and economic change must be driven by Iranians themselves.

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The papers in this CSIS compendium were written by the nine members of the 2019 TUPP delegation. Each participant was asked to reflect on their in-country experience and produce a short article analyzing a policy issue related to Taiwan. These papers are a testament to the powerful impact that follows first-hand exposure to Taiwan.

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The United States is being confronted by the liabilities of its strength. Competitors are finding avenues for threatening U.S. interests without triggering escalation. Their approaches lie in the contested arena between routine statecraft and open warfare—the "gray zone." The United States has yet to articulate a comprehensive approach to deterring competitors in the gray zone. A concrete and actionable campaign plan is needed to deal with the gray zone challenge; in order to do so, the United States must identify and employ a broad spectrum of tools and concepts to deter, and if needed, to compete and win contestations in the gray zone.

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In today’s challenging, technologically informed environment, the U.S. military must continue to ensure a competitive advantage. This report suggests ways to develop a cadre of technologically competent officers with the requisite leadership and operational skills to excel in this fast-paced and ever-evolving environment. It involves a complementary set of selection, assignment, promotion, and military and civilian education opportunities that infuse our next generation of leaders with strategic, creative, and critical thinking attributes to interact effectively between and among the policy, technology, and operational communities.

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Despite a U.S. focus on securing an international deal to curb Iran’s nuclear development for the last several years, the United States lacks a strategy to combat the full range of Iranian activities that threaten the interests of the United States and its allies but fall short of conventional warfare. In this report, CSIS’s International Security Program sets forth analysis of Iran’s strategy, motivations, military, and paramilitary capabilities and evaluates the effects of Iranian behavior on key U.S. partners. The study leverages the expertise of contributing authors at CSIS, the American Enterprise Institute, the Center for Naval Analyses, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Harvard University and the University of Hawaii to inform its analysis. The study proposes a framework for deterring Iran, including practical recommendations for the U.S. administration and Congress that would enhance the security of the United States and its allies and partners.

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The North American energy landscape has shifted in significant ways. New development of abundant tight oil and unconventional natural gas resources creates an historic opportunity to enhance economic growth throughout North America and improve the region’s competitiveness in global markets. The rapid pace of development of these resources, along with changes in consumption, however, have created a unique need for new and expanded infrastructure and a reevaluation of North America’s place in the global energy market. This report captures the current state of crude oil production growth and the infrastructure required and then frames the related major policy and regulatory discussions, including environmental concerns, crude oil exports, the strategic petroleum reserve, and the Jones Act.

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China faces increasing economic headwinds that call into question not only its near-term growth outlook but the longer-term sustainability of its economic success. At a time of leadership transition in Beijing, global markets and policymakers alike are casting an anxious eye on China’s economic decisionmakers and wondering whether they have the plans, skills, and fortitude to cope with these challenges. There is a rising premium on understanding how Chinese economic policy decisions are made, whether the emerging cadre of policymakers has the wherewithal to navigate the more turbulent waters ahead, and what the implications are for U.S. foreign and economic policy.

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This important and timely study, Faith in the Balance: Regulating Religious Affairs in Africa, provides unique insights into how five governments on the African continent do just that: manage the politics of religion and the role of religion in politics. The study looks at each case—Morocco, Tunisia, Nigeria, Kenya, and Burkina Faso—from the perspective of the state, complementing work that has explained religious organizations and belief systems as they relate to the state, seeking to address grievances, or to access resources and security. One important insight from the various cases is the centrality of politics and power relationships, more than doctrinal theological debates, in shaping the state-religion interactions.

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The presence of a technologically superior defense industrial base has been a foundation of U.S. strategy since 1945. While the implementation of the budget cuts in the Budget Control Act of 2011 has caused concerns for the industrial base, the resulting debate has been lacking in empirical analysis. The purpose of this research is to measure the impact of the current defense drawdown across all the tiers of the industrial base. This report analyzes prime and subprime Defense Department contract data to measures the impacts of the drawdown by sector to better understand how prime and subprime contractors have responded to this external market shock.

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Twenty-five years of relative calm and predictability in relations between Russia and the West enabled European governments largely to neglect their military capabilities for territorial defense and dramatically redraw Northern Europe’s multilateral, regional, and bilateral boundaries, stimulating new institutional and cooperative developments and arrangements. These cooperative patterns of behavior occurred amid a benign security environment, a situation that no longer obtains. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, its military incursion into eastern Ukraine, its substantial military modernization efforts, heightened undersea activity in the North Atlantic and Baltic Sea, and its repeated air violations, the region’s security environment has dramatically worsened. The Baltic Sea and North Atlantic region have returned as a geostrategic focal point. It is vital, therefore, that the United States rethink its security approach to the region—what the authors describe as an Enhanced Northern Presence.

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Azerbaijan in a Reconnecting Eurasia examines the full scope of Azerbaijan’s national interests in the wider Eurasian region and analyzes the broad outlines of Azerbaijan’s engagement over the coming years. It is part of a four-part CSIS series, “The South Caucasus in a Reconnecting Eurasia,” which includes studies focusing on Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the South Caucasus.

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The 22nd Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia, possess a singular symbolic character for Russia and its leadership. President Vladimir Putin considers the Games a demonstration of Russia’s growing international role and the success of his administration’s policies. Many view a successful Olympics as integral to his presidency. But also Sochi presents a number of challenges as an Olympic host city. It stands at the center of a number of thorny issues with geopolitical and security implications, including the turbulent insurgencies in the North Caucasus, ethno-political issues such as the “Circassian question,” and the Russia-Georgia-Abkhazia security triangle. It is also a focal point for many nonsecurity issues, including the environment, transportation, housing, and public services. By placing Sochi within the domestic political, regional, and geopolitical contexts, this report examines the myriad challenges facing the Sochi Olympics that could affect the Games. It also examines Russia’s policy response to these challenges and its preparations for the Games, as well as the work that still needs to be done.

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Globalization and the American worker is a path-breaking work on economic policy in a global age. It debunks the myths that clutter the political debate over globalization, focusing instead on the hard challenges America faces in building a stronger economic future. The book highlights the need to embrace the challenge of competing in the global economy, while making the investments in America’s workers that they need to compete in world markets. It underscores the importance of adaptability in a time of accelerating economic change and explains how economic policy can encourage or hinder the ability of workers and firms to adjust to the changes that globalization has wrought. The book provides concrete recommendations for trade and tax policy, education, health care, labor, technology and range of other areas that would help build a new social contract between America and its greatest asset, its workers.

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