Search results for ""centre for strategic international studies,u.s.""

Annually, CSIS senior adviser Mark Cancian publishes a series of papers on U.S. military forces—their composition, new initiatives, long-term trends, and challenges. The overall theme of this year’s report is the struggle to align forces and strategy because of budget tradeoffs that even defense buildups must make, unrelenting operational demands that stress forces and prevent force structure reductions, and legacy programs whose smooth operations and strong constituencies inhibit rapid change. This report takes a deeper look at the strategic and budget context, the military services, special operations forces, DOD civilians and contractors, and non-DOD national security organizations in the FY 2020 budget.

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Improvements to strategic situational awareness (SA)—the ability to characterize the operating environment, detect and respond to threats, and discern actual attacks from false alarms across the spectrum of conflict—have long been assumed to reduce the risk of conflict and help manage crises more successfully when they occur. However, with the development of increasingly capable strategic SA-related technology, growing comingling of conventional and nuclear SA requirements and capabilities, and the increasing risk of conventional conflict between nuclear-armed adversaries, this may no longer be the case. The Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the University of California, Berkeley’s Nuclear Policy Working Group undertook a two-year study to examine the implications of emerging situational awareness technologies for managing crises between nuclear-armed adversaries.

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This paper garners information crucial to understanding business growth for new entrants and small businesses who contract with the federal government by utilizing publicly available contracting data from the Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS) to track new entrants from 2001-2016. This information is then used to evaluate entrances, exits, and status changes among federal vendors with the purpose of comparing challenges faced by small businesses with those of larger ones. Measuring market trends over time and in multiple sectors shows how the challenges facing small businesses, such as market barriers to entry and imperfect competition, keep them from growing. The final results compare the survival rates between small and non-small new entrants contracting with the federal government and analyze the graduation rates for those small new entrants who grew in size during the observation period and survived after ten years. The study finds that around 40 percent of new entrants exit the market for federal contracts after three years, around 50-60 percent after five years, and only about one-fifth of new entrants remain in the federal contracting arena in the final year of observation. Across the six samples studied, thegraduation rates of small businesses consistently decrease.

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In the past decade, tensions in Asia have risen as Beijing has become more assertive in maritime disputes with its neighbors and the United States. Although taking place below the threshold of direct military confrontation, China’s assertiveness frequently involves coercive elements that put at risk existing rules and norms; physical control of disputed waters and territory; and the credibility of U.S. security commitments. Regional leaders have expressed increasing alarm that such “gray zone” coercion threatens to destabilize the region by increasing the risk of conflict and undermining the rules-based order. Yet, the United States and its allies and partners have struggled to develop effective counters to China’s maritime coercion. This study reviews deterrence literature and nine case studies of coercion to develop recommendations for how the United States and its allies and partners could counter gray zone activity.

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The role that nuclear weapons play in international security has changed since the end of the Cold War, but the need to maintain and replenish the human infrastructure for supporting nuclear capabilities and dealing with the multitude of nuclear challenges remains essential. Recognizing this challenge, CSIS launched the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) in 2003 to develop the next generation of policy, technical, and operational nuclear professionals through outreach, mentorship, research and debate. PONI runs two signature programs—the Nuclear Scholars Initiative and the Annual Conference Series—to engage emerging nuclear experts in thoughtful and informed debate and research over how best to address the nuclear community’s most pressing problems. The papers included in this volume comprise research from participants in the 2016 Nuclear Scholars Initiative and the PONI Conference Series. PONI sponsors this research to provide a forum for facilitating new and innovative thinking and to provide a platform for emerging thought leaders across the nuclear enterprise. Spanning a wide range of technical and policy issues, these selected papers further serious discussion in their respective areas.

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Asia stands out as the world’s most vibrant region, where rivalries and confrontation coincide with increased economic cooperation and community building. How should we interpret these two dynamics, and what are the implications for U.S. policy? With the support of the MacArthur Foundation, Asahi Shimbun, Joongang Ilbo, and China Times, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) collaborated with Opinion Dynamics Corporation on a survey of strategic elites in eleven Asia Pacific economies. This report presents key findings on the strategic landscape in Asia with respect to questions of power, norms, and regional institutions.

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The Trump administration’s FY 2019 budget proposal laid out a set of priorities. To pay for these initiatives, the FY 2019 defense budget rose 14 percent above the FY 2017 level. The Congress generally endorsed the administration's approach. However, the choices showed that there is no escaping the tradeoff among readiness, modernization, and force structure. This study examines the changes in the FY 2019 budget for each of the military services, DOD civilians, and contractors, how the budget shapes the forces, and the challenges ahead for building and maintaining the forces needed to implement the administration's stated strategy.

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When the United States invaded Afghanistan after the attacks on September 11, 2001, and then overthrew the Taliban regime, senior military officers were not predicting that the United States would be militarily involved 18 years later. Yet, after expending nearly $800 billion and suffering over 2,400 killed, the United States is still there, having achieved at best a stalemate. This CSIS report concludes that the mission in Afghanistan expanded from a limited focus on counterterrorism to a broad nation-building effort without discussions about the implications for the duration and intensity of the military campaign. This expansion occurred without considering the history of Afghanistan, the Soviet experience, and the decades-long effort required in successful nation-building efforts. The report makes a series of recommendations: improving the dialogue between senior military and civilian officials about desired goals/end states and the implied intensity/duration of a military campaign; continuing the development of military strategists; revising military doctrine publications to include discussion of choices about goals/end states; and taking more seriously the history and experience of others.

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To explore opportunities for greater economic cooperation between the United States and Japan in third countries, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington and the Asia Pacific Initiative (API) in Tokyo embarked on a joint research project using a case-study approach to examine four countries (Myanmar, Vietnam, India, and South Korea) and two institutional arrangements (regional trade architecture and the G7) where the United States and Japan have aligned interests. We found that shared interests and goals of the United States and Japan transcend today’s bilateral trade tensions, and despite China’s growing influence and assertive behavior there nevertheless remains a strong demand in the region for U.S. and Japanese leadership. Washington and Tokyo should therefore work to better coordinate their economic engagement in the region.

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"Analysis of the FY 2019 Defense Budget" from the CSIS Defense Budget Analysis program provides an in-depth assessment of the Trump administration’s request for national defense funding in FY 2019. In addition to analyzing the request for the upcoming fiscal year and the Department of Defense’s projections for the future, the report assesses long-term trends in defense funding levels by spending title and Service as well as changes in the military’s force structure over time.

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The face of global development is changing rapidly, and the CSIS Global Development Monitor seeks to address the complex issues highlighted by the recently adopted Sustainable Development Goals. Over a dozen CSIS experts and affiliates examine the role and purpose of official development assistance against a backdrop of global trends, including forced migration, human rights, global health, urban planning, and the rise of competing multilateral development banks. In particular, the essays in this report explore ways in which official donors and key partners, such as the private sector, civil society, and multilateral institutions, can improve livelihoods, strengthen governance, and facilitate access to key resources, including food, energy, and infrastructure.

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This study examines three historical maritime disputes to draw lessons and insights for the future of maritime governance in a rapidly transforming Arctic. The historical case studies—the 1920 Svalbard Treaty, the 1936 Montreux Convention, and the 1961 Antarctic Treaty—are highly instructive cases for a region that also must balance a confluence of international economic development, environmental protection, and security concerns along with strategic and ecologically sensitive maritime spaces. While historically unique, important lessons for the Arctic and its future governing needs are gleaned that address challenging geography, the assertion of national sovereignty, and the pursuit of shared environmental goals.

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This study explores the growing competition for scarce dollars at the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA). It traces the authorities, roles, and missions assigned to the agency and the growing trend of using what was originally intended to be a research and development budget for procurement and sustainment of missile defense assets. As adversary missile arsenals develop in both size and sophistication, continued improvements to our current missile defense systems will be required to keep pace with the threat. The combination of an ever shrinking top line and new roles and missions being assigned to MDA make that task difficult. Finding a new path forward and more clearly defining the position of the agency inside the Department of Defense will be essential for a more sustainable missile defense posture.

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This report examines the disaster resilience efforts of the executive and legislative branches of government and public-private partnerships. Its recommendations are the product of a series of dialogues hosted by the CSIS Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Program and the Irene W. and C.B. Pennington Foundation. Reflecting thoughts, findings, and viewpoints gleaned from the series, the authors provide guidance for officials who want to make progress in bolstering planning, partnerships, and capabilities to address the real, localized, and oftentimes devastating effects of natural disasters.

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The report from the CSIS Project on Prosperity and Development outlines a new tool for policymakers to encourage private-sector development in developing nations. Specifically, it argues that in fragile states there is an intermediation gap between sources of capital and entrepreneurs seeking investment. This gap prevents investment by raising transaction costs and exacerbating information asymmetry. Jake Cusack and Matt Tilleard present a case study of this gap as observed in their work in South Sudan. Then they propose a model of investment facilitation that bridges the intermediation gap. The model is based on donor funding of a neutral nongovernment facilitator to identify attractive investment opportunities, link them to capital, and facilitate transactions.

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Is democracy in danger in the Dominican Republic? Is the country headed toward sustained one-party rule? In an effort to understand the state of Dominican democracy and rule of law, CSIS Americas Program director Carl Meacham led a six-month initiative to answer these questions. This report, which details the project’s findings, pays particular attention to alleged growing levels of corruption within the government and the independence—and effectiveness—of the country’s judiciary, as well as implications for the Dominican Republic’s relations with the United States.

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The Next Generation Working Group (NGWG) was convened by the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) to study the next steps in U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control. It consists of 14 leading young academics, analysts, and officials with professional experience in arms control and other nuclear issues. The working group’s report concludes that an additional round of U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control is in the national security interest of the United States, but will be extremely difficult, given the two sides' divergent capabilities, interests, and objectives. The report lays out the key issues that are likely to be discussed and offers some practical recommendations, on both substance and process, that should allow the United States and Russia reach a mutually beneficial agreement.

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Presents findings from a CSIS study of US military culture, looking at its norms, values, and traditions, and at the services' abilities to adapt to environmental stress and the demands of the 21st century.

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The Project on Monitoring Defense Reorganization was initiated in 1987 to bring the collective experience of individuals who have served at the highest levels of the Department of Defense, both military and civilian, in defense industries and scientific establishment, and on relevant committees of the U.S. Congress, to bear on the complicated issues of defense management. The mandate was narrow: to assess the degree to which the requirement of the 1986 Goldwater-Nichols Defense Commission were being implemented, to evaluate the consequences of the steps that had been taken to date, and to determine if further measures to implement these two reform effortsóor additional kinds of reformsówere desirable. The general conclusion is the Department of Defense, in many areas, has made considerable progress toward implementing these changes. In force planning, programming and budgeting, and in the planning and conduct of military operation, there has been cautious movement toward effective implementation of the Goldwater-Nichols legislation and the recommendations of the Packard Commission. Reform of the weapon acquisition process has come much more slowly. In one key areaóthe participation of Congress in defense management and decision makingóthere has been very little change. This project was a joint effort of the Foreign Policy Institute of The Johns Hopkins University and the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

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“Fragility”—the combination of poor governance, limited institutional capability, low social cohesion, and weak legitimacy—leads to erosion of the social contract and diminished resilience, with significant implications for peace, security, and sustainable development. This study reviews how the international community has responded to this challenge and offers new ideas on how that response can be improved. Based on that examination, the author seeks to convey the importance of addressing this phenomenon as a high priority for the international community. Chapters explore the nature of these obstacles to sustainable development, peace, and security; how the international community has defined, measured, and responded to the phenomenon of fragility; how the international response might be made more effective; and implications for the United States.

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This report from the CSIS Project on Prosperity and Development looks at the domestic resource mobilization (DRM) reforms in developing countries through a political economy lens. As countries mobilize more resources to fund their governments and services, they can think more strategically about transitioning from a reliance on foreign aid to more mutually beneficial relationships with foreign countries. There are structural challenges to mobilizing domestic resources that long have been the focus of DRM efforts; however, addressing the political economy and structural challenges will be critical in the face of increased need and plateauing levels of foreign aid. It is critical that development approaches create the foundational capabilities and systems necessary to capitalize on political windows of opportunity.

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When health crises strike—measles, MERS, Zika, dengue, Ebola, pandemic flu—and the American people grow alarmed, the U.S. government springs into action. But all too often, when the crisis fades and fear subsides, urgency morphs into complacency. Investments dry up, attention shifts, and a false sense of security takes hold. The CSIS Commission on Strengthening America’s Health Security urges the U.S. government to replace the cycle of crisis and complacency that has long plagued health security preparedness with a doctrine of continuous prevention, protection, and resilience. Such a strategic approach can restore U.S. leadership, strengthen financing and the speed of response, foster resilient health systems abroad, enhance the U.S. government’s ability to operate in disordered settings, and accelerate select technological innovations to secure the future.

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