Search results for ""author r"

Fans of S. J. Parris, Donna Leon, Steven Saylor and C. J. Sansom will love this captivating, colourful and unputdownable historical mystery from multi-million copy bestselling author Lindsey Davis. Guaranteed to have you turning the pages, this will easily transport you back in time to Ancient Rome...'Several cheers for Lindsey Davis... Great fun' -- The Times'Fast-moving, funny and full of atmosphere' -- Mail on Sunday'Highly readable, funny and colourful' - TLS'An intriguing Roman mystery, with quite a few twists and turns' -- ***** Reader review'Another excellent Falco book that is difficult to put down' -- ***** Reader review'Well written, humorous, interesting and a good read' -- ***** Reader review'Brilliant. Very funny too' -- ***** Reader review***************************************************************************************A MURDERED LEGIONARY - AND THERE'S ONE PRIME SUSPECTAD 72: Marcus Didius Falco returns home from a six-month mission to the German legions. But trouble is in store for him: his apartment has been wrecked by squatters and an ex-legionary friend of his colourfully heroic brother Festus is demanding money, allegedly owed him as the result of one of Festus's wild schemes. Worse still, the only client Falco can get is his mother - who wants him to clear the family name.Then just as Falco thinks things can only get better, fate takes a turn for the worse... The legionary is found viciously stabbed to death with Falco the prime suspect.Now he has only three days to prove he is not a murderer, to trace the real suspect, amass evidence and win a fortune...

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Create something amazing with these ready-to-use artistic templates for popular pets. Inside TangleEasy Pets are 32 captivating designs to colour, tangle and inspire. Use these endearing animal companions for simple colouring enjoyment, or fill them with tangles to make your own new Zentangle-inspired masterpiece.From cats and dogs to horses and hamsters, these versatile templates allow you to produce stunning original art, even if you're just a beginner and can't draw like a professional. You'll find expert advice here on colouring and patterning techniques, along with a gorgeous gallery of inspiring finished pieces.TangleEasy Pets is printed on quality, heavyweight paper, perforated for easy removal and framing. And since there are no copyright restrictions, you have complete freedom to create, display and distribute your derivative artworks without restriction or fear of infringement.

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Offers a detailed description of the early history of the three-body problem and its periodic solutions, with chapters dedicated to the pioneering work of Hill, Poincare, and Darwin. This is followed by an in-depth account of the contribution to the subject by the mathematical astronomer Forest Ray Moulton and his research students.

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During the last two decades, structural equation modelling (SEM) has emerged as a powerful multivariate data analysis tool in social science research settings, especially in the fields of sociology, psychology, and education. Social science researchers and students benefit greatly from acquiring knowledge and skills in SEM, since the methods can provide a bridge between the theoretical and empirical aspects of behavioural research. Ramlall explains in a rigorous, concise, and practical manner all the vital components embedded in structural equation modelling (SEM). Focusing on R and Stata to implement and perform various structural equation models, Ramlall examines the types, benefits, and drawbacks of SEM, delving into model specifications and identifications, fit evaluations, and path diagrams.

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Harness the full power of the behavioral data in your company by learning tools specifically designed for behavioral data analysis. Common data science algorithms and predictive analytics tools treat customer behavioral data, such as clicks on a website or purchases in a supermarket, the same as any other data. Instead, this practical guide introduces powerful methods specifically tailored for behavioral data analysis. Advanced experimental design helps you get the most out of your A/B tests, while causal diagrams allow you to tease out the causes of behaviors even when you can't run experiments. Written in an accessible style for data scientists, business analysts, and behavioral scientists, this practical book provides complete examples and exercises in R and Python to help you gain more insight from your data--immediately. Understand the specifics of behavioral data Explore the differences between measurement and prediction Learn how to clean and prepare behavioral data Design and analyze experiments to drive optimal business decisions Use behavioral data to understand and measure cause and effect Segment customers in a transparent and insightful way

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There is nothing as powerful as a mother’s love. But will Ellen’s put her whole family in danger?‘I didn’t read The Heights, I inhaled it’ LISA JEWELL Ellen Saint is just your average mum. Devoted to her family, she’s no different from any other mother who wants the best for her kids. But when her teenage son Lucas brings a new friend home, cracks start to appear in Ellen’s perfect family life. Kieran Watts isn’t like Lucas. He’s rude, obnoxious and reckless, and Ellen can only watch in despair as her son falls deeper under his influence. Then Ellen’s whole world implodes and she embarks on an obsessive need to get revenge. There is nothing you won’t do for your children – even murder . . .'Compelling, unexpected and beautifully written' JANE FALLON‘Tense, provocative and devastatingly powerful’ TM LOGAN'There’s nothing quite so chilling as the roar of mother tiger love. Louise Candlish had my heart in my throat. Dizzily dark. Dangerous. Deadly' JANE CORRY'The Heights has everything you could possibly wish for – tragedy, obsession, revenge and, yes, love. Another finely-crafted masterpiece from Louise Candlish' BA PARIS

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Prepare to step off the ego path onto a more rewarding, fulfilling and service-oriented journey of enlightenment.Praised by Mother Teresa and Dr Wayne Dyer for his breakthrough research and innovative teachings on the human mind, Dr David Hawkins took our understanding of spiritual truth and enlightenment to an entirely new level. A nationally renowned psychiatrist, physician, researcher, spiritual teacher and lecturer, Dr Hawkins was the founding director of the Institute for Spiritual Research Incorporated and the founder of the path of devotional non-duality. During his life, he devoted almost three full decades to understanding the potential of the human spirit. His exhaustive research led to techniques anyone can use to elevate their quality of life. In this book, adapted from Dr Hawkins’ many lectures, interviews and audio programmes, readers will be brought to higher levels of awareness, control and understanding. This book includes 10 volumes of Dr Hawkins’ core teachings that are most beneficial and relevant to today’s world, including his Map of Consciousness® calibration process.The Wisdom of Dr David R. Hawkins also includes one of Dr Hawkins’ last lectures on the most valuable qualities for a spiritual seeker.‘This book is a unique and wonderful resource of teachings from Dr Hawkins…. You might imagine that you are sitting there in his audience – listening and watching, laughing and receiving.’From the Foreword by Fran Grace PhD

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In the late 1990s, Ruth Pavey bought four acres of scrub land above the Somerset Levels. She devoted the next two decades to improving the land into a lush wood; a haven for birds, insects and all manner of wildlife. Beneath the shade of the trees, she now reflects on the fate of her wood. Deeper Into the Wood recounts a year in the life of an amateur naturalist working with wildlife experts to interpret the language of the land with the aim of preserving the wood for generations to come. Lyrically told stories of local people and regional history are accompanied throughout by Ruth’s beautifully hand-drawn illustrations.

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In the early 1930s Chlotilde R. Martin of Beaufort, South Carolina, wrote a series of articles for the Charleston News and Courier documenting the social and economic transformation of the lowcountry coast as an influx of wealthy northerners began buying scores of old local plantations. Her articles combined the name-dropping chatter of the lowcountry social register with reflections on the tension between past and present in the old rice and cotton kingdoms of South Carolina. Edited by Robert B. Cuthbert and Stephen G. Hoffius, Northern Money, Southern Land collects Martin's articles and augments them with photographs and historical annotations to carry their stories forward to the present day.As Martin recounted, the new owners of these coastal properties ranked among the most successful businessmen in the country and included members of the Doubleday, Du Pont, Hutton, Kress, Whitney, Guggenheim, and Vanderbilt families. Among the later owners are media magnate Ted Turner and boxer Joe Frazier. The plantation houses they bought and the homes they built are some of the most important architectural structures in the Palmetto State--although many are rarely seen by the public. In some fifty articles drawn from interviews with property owners and visits to their newly acquired lands, Martin described almost eighty estates covering some three hundred thousand acres of Beaufort, Jasper, Hampton, Colleton, and Berkeley counties. Martin's lively sketches included stories of wealthy young playboys who brought Broadway showgirls down for decadent parties, tales of the first nudist colony in America, and exchanges with African American farmhands who wanted to travel to New York to see their employers' primary homes, which they had been assured were piled high with gold and silver. In the process, Martin painted a fascinating landscape of a southern coastline changing hands and on the verge of dramatic redevelopment. Her tales, here updated by Cuthbert and Hoffius, will bring modern readers onto many little-known plantations in the southern part of South Carolina and provide a wealth of knowledge about the history of vexing tensions between development and conservation that remain a defining aspect of lowcountry life.

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Johnny Ace's crooning style and stirring ballads made him the first postwar African American artist to cross over to a white audience. After a string of R&B hits, Ace released the million-selling "Pledging My Love," a song headed to the top of the charts when the singer accidentally shot himself in his dressing room between sets at a show. James M. Salem captures the enigmatic, captivating, and influential R&B legend. Venturing from raucous Beale Street to Houston's vibrant Fourth Ward, Salem places Johnny Ace within a multifaceted world of postwar rhythm and blues that included B. B. King, Johnny Otis, Big Mama Thornton, and Gatemouth Brown. Salem also examines how entrepreneur Don D. Robey and his wife Evelyn Johnson promoted Ace to the top of the charts. Yet fame, as always, had a price. Ace's tours on the Chitlin' Circuit meant endless one-night stands and a grueling schedule that kept him on the road 340 days per year. Comprehensive and filled with anecdotes, The Late Great Johnny Ace and the Transition from R&B to Rock 'n' Roll tells the story of the star who fused black and white styles and changed American popular music forever.

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Coaching ist eine berufsbezogene Beratungsmethode zur Begleitung und UnterstÃ"tzung von Menschen in schwierigen, veränderungsbedÃ"rftigen oder neuen Arbeitszusammenhängen. Sie hilft Coachees bei der Lösung von Problemen, bei der Konfliktbewältigung, Rollengestaltung, Karriereplanung oder der Entwicklung von beruflichen Kompetenzen. Je komplexer die Arbeitswelt wird, umso wichtiger wird auch, dass Coaching an den gesellschaftlichen Herausforderungen wächst und Beratungskonzepte entwickelt, die der Komplexität und dem Veränderungsdruck angemessen sind.Coaching, wie es in diesem Buch vermittelt wird, ist eine methodenplurale, mehrperspektivische und flexible Beratungsmethode, in der auch analoge, vor- und nichtsprachliche Aspekte neben der sprachlichen Kommunikation berÃ"cksichtigt werden. Nur so kann sie die Lebenswirklichkeit der Coachees angemessen erfassen. Coaching wird dabei als eine co-kreative Tätigkeit aufgefasst, als ein gemeinsamer schöpferischer Prozess, in dem es um Gewinnung von neuen Sicht-, FÃ"hl-, Denk- und Handlungsweisen und die Umgestaltung von Strukturen und Mustern geht. Kreative Medien unterstÃ"tzen diesen schöpferischen Prozess.Das Spezifische dieses Ansatzes liegt in dem dichten, synergetischen Methodennetzwerk, welches systemische, integrativ-gestalttherapeutische, analoge und körpertherapeutische Methoden zu einem effektiven Handlungsmodell von Coaching verbindet. Der prall gefÃ"llte Methodenkoffer enthält neben einer Vielzahl methodischer Hinweise fÃ"r die Coachingpraxis auch 125 komplexe Ãbungen (Tools) fÃ"r alle Fälle.

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A collection of profound ideas from one of the great spiritual thinkers of our generation.In this authoritative work, readers will be brought to higher levels of awareness, control, and understanding. This book includes ten volumes of Dr. Hawkins’s core teachings that are most beneficial and relevant to today’s world, including his Map of Consciousness calibration process.The Wisdom of Dr. David R. Hawkins also includes one of Dr. Hawkins’s last lectures on the most valuable qualities for a spiritual seeker.Get ready to step off the ego path onto a more rewarding, fulfilling, and service-oriented journey of enlightenment.

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See inside the gardens where literary giants from Tolstoy to Agatha Christie created some of their finest works in this visually stunning and fascinating book. Discover the flower gardens, vegetable plots, landscapes and writing hideaways of 30 great authors – from Louisa May Alcott’s ‘Orchard House’ where she wrote Little Women and Agatha Christie at Greenway, to Virginia Woolf at Monk’s House and the Massachusetts home of Edith Wharton.Fully illustrated with specially commissioned photography plus archive images, and spanning centuries and continents, this book visits the homes and gardens that inspired novelists, poets and playwrights. It shows how outdoor spaces were important to writers in many different ways and offers insight into the lives and creative processes of beloved authors. Writers featured include: Jane Austen in Kent and Hampshire, Agatha Christie in Devon, Beatrix Potter in the Lake District, Thomas Hardy in Dorset, Walter Scott and Robert Burns in Scotland, William Wordsworth in Cumbria, Virginia Woolf and Rudyard Kipling in Sussex, Frances Hodgson Burnett in Kent, Jack London in California, Edward James in Mexico, Jean Cocteau and George Sand in France and Goethe in Germany. This deeply insightful book sheds new light on some of literature's greatest works, offers rare glimpses into the lives of these brilliant minds, and showcases in stunning full colour the gardens in which these writers spent their time.

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A back garden can come alive by creating an environment with plants and spaces that attract nature's most interesting and friendly creatures. Colourful butterflies, uplifting songbirds and lively toads can enhance the personal garden space, giving pleasure to nature lovers of all ages. National Wildlife Federation (R): Attracting Birds, Butterflies & Other Wildlife to Your Backyard (2nd Ed) provides over a dozen step-by-step projects for families to do together, making getting back to nature easy, educational and fun. Author David Mizejewski presents simple plans for reintroducing native plants that birds, butterflies and a whole host of critters can't resist. He also provides new information on attracting back garden pollinators-a major issue for environmentalists as bee populations decline.

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These lecture notes are devoted to the analysis of a nonlocal equation in the whole of Euclidean space. In studying this equation, all the necessary material is introduced in the most self-contained way possible, giving precise references to the literature when necessary. The results presented are original, but no particular prerequisite or knowledge of the previous literature is needed to read this text. The work is accessible to a wide audience and can also serve as introductory research material on the topic of nonlocal nonlinear equations.

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If you’re a girl, you should strive to look like the model on the cover of a magazine. If you’re a boy, you should play sports and be good at them. If you’re smart, you should immediately go to college after high school, and get a job that makes you rich. Above all, be normal.Right? Wrong, say 35 leading middle grade and young adult authors. Growing up is challenging enough; it doesn’t have to be complicated by convoluted, outdated, or even cruel rules, both spoken and unspoken. Parents, peers, teachers, the media, and the rest of society sometimes have impossible expectations of teenagers. These restrictions can limit creativity, break spirits, and demand that teens sacrifice personality for popularity. In these personal, funny, moving, and poignant essays, Kathryn Erskine (Mockingbird), Matthew Quick (The Silver Linings Playbook), Gary D. Schmidt (The Wednesday Wars), Sara Zarr (Story of a Girl), and many others share anecdotes and lessons learned from their own lives in order to show you that some rules just beg to be broken.

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Military histories have lately turned their attention to the British Army in the mid 18th century, when, but for the dedication of the House of Hanover, a professional standing army might never have developed in a country devoid of home frontiers. In 1716 the Royal Regiment of Artillery was founded. In 1741 Woolwich Academy became the first place of military learning in Britain and in 1744 a cadet company was established James Wood was one of the first cadets trained at Woolwich and served successfully as Volunteer, Mattross, Cadet, Cadet Gunner and Fireworker in France, the Low Counties, Scotland and for nearly 10 years in India between 1746 1765\. His plain written factual diary described in a professional manner the day to day routine for a junior rank in the field train of the army. During the formative years of the Regiment, professional efficiency markedly improved. Although Fortescue made this point strongly in his history of the British Army, little evidence is produced to sustain the judgement. In editing James Wood's diary, Rex Whitworth, from his knowledge of the period, has been able to place Wood's basic story in the contemporary military scene and so fill out the record of the professional British field gunner. This was a period when the army, in close co-operation with the Navy, fought the most successful war of our history on a worldwide canvas. The hazards of maritime operations in the days of sail are fully brought out by Wood, and he sheds new light on the earliest activities of the King's troops in India. Any readers of Wood's fascinating diary with a modest knowledge of the times will fully agree with Dalrymple in his 'Military essay' of 1761 that of all the various branches of our profession none hath made greater progress in it than the Royal Artillery . Gunner at Large will come as a surprise to all those who believe that between Marlborough and Wellington the British Army was but a contemptible corps of amateurs.

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Reflects on women participating in Islamic scholarly traditions from the classical period to the presentWhen we dissect Islamic religious authority into its various manifestations - leading prayer, preaching, issuing fatwas, transmitting hadith, judging in court, shaping the Islamic scholarly tradition - nuances emerge that question the conventional accounts of this authority that proceed from the assumption that it is male. This collection of case studies, covering the period from classical Islam to the present, and taken from across the Islamic world, allows for women's role to be compared across time and space. This allows for the formation of hypotheses regarding which conditions and developments (theological, jurisprudential, social, economic, political) enhanced or stifled female religious authority in Shi'i Islam. Key Features Covers both the medieval and modern period Features 10 case studies including ones on hadith culture, women judges, Fatima, Iran, and the concept of the role of the vakil Questions assumptions about the inherently progressive agenda of female religious authorities Includes an overview of the contemporary debates about female religious authority in Islam

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Create something amazing with these ready-to-use artistic templates for magnificent marine life. Inside this book are 32 captivating designs to color, tangle, and inspire. Use these aquatic animals for simple coloring enjoyment, or fill them with tangles to make your own new Zentangle-inspired masterpiece. From great whites and jellyfish to whales and dolphins, these versatile templates allow you to produce stunning original art, even if you’re just a beginner and can’t draw like a professional. You’ll find expert advice here on coloring and patterning techniques, along with a gorgeous gallery of inspiring finished pieces. TangleEasy Sea Life is printed on quality, heavyweight paper, perforated for easy removal and framing.

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This book is the authorized chronicle of the Atlanta Rhythm Section, the legendary southern rock band that created such memorable hits as “Champagne Jam,” “So Into You,” “Imaginary Lover,” “Spooky,” and “Doraville.” Already seasoned studio professionals when they formed in 1970, the A.R.S. forged a new direction in southern rock by focusing on the integrity of their music onstage and in the studio. Through platinum and gold albums—A Rock and Roll Alternative, Champagne Jam, and Underdog—as well as international tours, huge outdoor concerts, and personnel changes, the band has staunchly maintained its dedication to its craft over the decades. This story contains recollections from original and current band members, producers, technicians, other musicians, and fans, as well as more than 120 photos of band members from the early days as backup musicians for Roy Orbison and other iconic artists to the present day.

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Essays bringing out the richness and vibrancy of pre-modern textual culture in all its variety. Linne R. Mooney, Emeritus Professor of Palaeography at the University of York, has significantly advanced the study of later medieval English book production, particularly our knowledge of individual scribes; this collection honours her distinguished scholarship and responds to her wide-ranging research on Middle English manuscripts and texts. The thirteen essays brought together here take a variety of approaches - palaeographical, codicological, dialectal, textual, art historical - to the study of the English medieval book and to the varied environments (professional, administrative, mercantile, ecclesiastical) where manuscripts were produced and used during the period 1300-1550. Acknowledging that books and readers are no respecters of borders, this collection's geographical scope extends beyond England in the east to Ghent and Flanders, and in the west to Waterford and the Dublin Pale. Contributors explore manuscripts containing works by key writers, including Geoffrey Chaucer, John Gower, John Wyclif, and Walter Hilton. Major texts whose manuscript traditions are scrutinized include Speculum Vitae, the Scale of Perfection, the Canterbury Tales, and Confessio Amantis, along with a wide range of shorter works such as lyric poems, devotional texts, and historical chronicles. London book-making activities and the scribal cultures of other cities and monastic centres all receive attention, as does the book production of personal miscellanies. By considering both literary texts and the letters, charters, and writs that medieval scribes produced, in Latin and Anglo-French as well as English, this collection celebrates Professor Mooney's influence on the field and presents a holistic sense of England's pre-modern textual culture.

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Descriptions of animal sacrifice in Homer offer us some of the most detailed accounts of this attempt at communication between man and gods. What is the significance of these scenes within the framework of the Iliad? This book explores the structural and thematic importance of animal sacrifice as an expression of the quarrel between Akhilleus and Agamemnon through the differing perspectives of the primary narrative and character speech. In the Iliad, animal sacrifice is incorporated into the primary narrative to bolster the royal authority of Agamemnon and further emphasize Akhilleus' isolation. The sacrifices embedded in character speech express frustration with the failure of reciprocity and the inability of sacrifice to influence the course of human events.

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After Authority explores the tendency in art cinema to respond to political transition by turning to ambiguity, a system that ideally stems the reemergence of authoritarian logics in art and elsewhere. By comparing films from Italy, Hungary, South Korea, and the United States, this book contends that the aesthetic tradition of ambiguity in art cinema can be traced to post-authoritarian conditions and that it is in the context of a transition away from authoritarianism where art cinema aesthetics become legible. Art cinema, then, can be seen as a mode of cinematic practice that is at its core political, as its constitutive ambiguity finds its roots in the rejection of centralized and hierarchical configurations of authority. Ultimately, After Authority proposes a history of art cinema predicated on the potentials, possibilities, and politics of ambiguity.

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The gripping new Jack Reacher thriller from the No.1 bestselling authors Lee Child and Andrew Child.When your name is Jack Reacher, the truth is always worth doing time for.Gerrardsville, Colorado. One tragic event. Two witnesses. Two conflicting accounts. One witness sees a woman throw herself in front of a bus - clearly suicide. The other witness is Jack Reacher. And he sees what really happened - a man in grey hoodie and jeans, swift and silent as a shadow, pushing the victim to her death, before grabbing her bag and sauntering away.Reacher follows the killer, not knowing that this was no random act of violence. It is part of something much bigger...a sinister, secret conspiracy, with powerful people on the take, enmeshed in an elaborate plot that leaves no room for error. If any step is compromised, the threat will have to be quickly and permanently removed.Because when the threat is Reacher, there is No Plan B...'Perfectly plotted, with bigger twists than ever before' KARIN SLAUGHTER'The world's favourite hero packs an even harder punch than ever' PETER JAMESAlthough the Jack Reacher novels can be read in any order, No Plan B is the 27th book in the internationally bestselling series.No Plan B was a No. 1 Sunday Times bestseller in May 2023.

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Deutschland ist fër Peru der wichtigste Handelspartner fër die Einfuhr hochwertiger technischer Produkte sowie Abnehmer peruanischer Rohstoffe sowie landwirtschaftlicher Erzeugnisse. Seit Jahrzehnten ist Peru zudem ein Empfängerland im Rahmen der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit.Peru ist kulturell, politisch und gesellschaftlich einerseits stark von der kolonialen Vergangenheit - beginnend mit der Landung des spanischen Eroberers Francisco Pizarro im Jahre 1532 an den Kësten Perus -, geprägt, andererseits von den wechselhaften politischen Entwicklungen in Sëdamerika und den Beziehungen Perus zu seinen großen Nachbarländern Argentinien und Brasilien. Die Peruaner haben im Laufe ihrer Geschichte eine sehr eigenständige Kultur entwickelt, die ihr Denken und Verhalten sowie ihre Wahrnehmung und Empfindungen in einer Art und Weise geprägt hat, die sich deutlich von der ihrer deutschen Partner unterscheidet. So geraten Deutsche in der Begegnung, in der Kommunikation und Kooperation mit Peruanern immer wieder in Situationen, in denen sie auf unerwartete Reaktionsweisen treffen, die sie nicht nachvollziehen können und auch nicht verstehen. Dies fëhrt zur Verunsicherung, zum Orientierungsverlust und im Endeffekt zu erheblichen Stressreaktionen.Dieses Buch basiert auf einer Fëlle von Erfahrungen, die Deutsche in mehrjähriger Zusammenarbeit mit Peruanern gewonnen haben. Das Trainingsprogramm bereitet anhand kulturell bedingter kritischer Interaktionssituationen auf den Arbeitsaufenthalt in Peru vor.

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Michael R. Gottfredson and Travish Hirschi’s 1990 A General Theory of Crime is a classic text that helped reshape the discipline of criminology. It is also a testament to the powers of clear reasoning and interpretation. In critical thinking terms, reasoning is all about presenting a solid and persuasive case – and as many people instinctively understand, the most persuasive reasoning is that which bases itself on a single, simple hook. In Gottfredson and Hirschi’s case, this hook was what has come to be known as the “self-control theory of crime” – the idea that the tendency to commit crime is directly related to an individual’s level of self-control. While the dominant schools of thought of the time tended to focus on crime as the product of complex environmental factors, with little attempt to unify different theories, Gottfredson and Hirschi sought to interpret things so as to provide a single overarching concept that explained why crimes of all sorts were committed. Moreover, while other theories of crime concentrated on understanding and explaining specific types of law-breaking, the self-control model could, in Gottfredson and Hirschi’s view, be seen as the basis for understanding the root cause for all crime in all contexts. While such simplicity inevitably attracted as much criticism as agreement, subsequent studies have provided real-world corroboration for the General Theory’s persuasive reasoning.

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Create something amazing with these ready-to-use artistic templates for retro icons. From tea sets and tugboats to gramophones and jukeboxes, these classic visions run the cultural gamut from conventional Victorian to hipster cool. Use these timeless designs for simple coloring enjoyment, or fill them with tangles and other patterns to make your own Zentangle-inspired masterpiece. You ll find expert advice here on coloring and patterning techniques, along with a gorgeous gallery of inspiring finished pieces. TangleEasy Vintage Icons is printed on quality, heavyweight paper, micro-perforated for easy removal and framing. Visit www.TangleEasy.com for new designs and updates."

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Create something amazing with these ready-to-use animal templates! Inside this book are 32 captivating wildlife designs to color, pattern, and inspire. Use these beautiful beasts for simple coloring enjoyment, or fill them with tangles and other patterns to make your own new Zentangleinspired masterpiece. From koala bears and kangaroos to lizards, leopards, and llamas, these versatile templates allow you to produce stunning original art, even if you’re just a beginner and can’t draw like a professional. You’ll find expert advice here on coloring and patterning techniques, along with a gorgeous gallery of inspiring finished pieces. TangleEasy Wildlife Designs is printed on quality, heavyweight paper.

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'Hubert Bird stole my heart' Beth O'Leary, author of The Flat-Share and The Switch'Lovely, emotional, uplifting' Libby Page, author of The Lido In phone calls to his daughter in Australia, widower Hubert Bird paints a picture of the perfect retirement, packed with fun and friendship. But Hubert Bird is lying. Something has made him turn his back on people, and he hardly sees a soul. So when his daughter announces she's coming to visit, Hubert faces a race against time: to make his real life resemble his fake life before he's found out.Along the way Hubert renews a cherished friendship, is given a second chance at love and even joins an audacious community scheme. But with the secret of his earlier isolation lurking in the shadows, is he destines to always be one of the lonely people? 'It is the kind of book you will want to press into the hands of everyone you know and tell them to read immediately' Press Association 'Flits between the present day and Hubert's early life as one of the Windrush generation. Heartbreaking, yet also uplifting' i Paper'Tender, humorous and uplifting - reading this is the uplift we all need' Women's Weekly

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Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.

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A Stanford University Press classic.

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In Scripture and the Authority of God, Tom Wright argues that God is the ultimate source of all authority, and that God's authority is not primarily about providing the right answers to disputed questions, but about God's sovereign, saving purposes being declared and accomplished through Jesus and the Spirit. This revised and expanded edition includes two helpful case studies, looking at what it means to keep Sabbath and at how Christians can defend martial monogamy. These studies not only offer bold biblical insights but also demonstrate the indispensable role of scripture as the primary resource for teaching and guidance in the Christian life.

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