Search results for ""Author . Allan""
Taylor & Francis Inc Transportation Systems Security
Highlighting the importance of transportation to a country’s infrastructure and survival, Transportation Systems Security presents the strategic and practical considerations involved in the implementation of physical, procedural, and managerial safeguards required to keep all modes of transportation up and running during an actual or potential disaster. Structured in an easy cognitive fashion, the book begins with a basic introduction providing terms and definitions. It describes both physical and information system layouts and defines who controls what parts of the process, how far control is extended, and who oversees controls within the system. Building on this foundation, subsequent chapters discuss problems such as the need for a more defined “domain-based” approach when threats, assets, vulnerabilities, and safeguards are not under local control. The book describes and refines the concepts of criticality, impact, and consequence as they relate to the assignation of value for personnel, assets, facilities, information and activities in terms of how they might support performance. By comparing continuity of operations planning (COOP) to business continuity planning (BCP), the book presents security measures as a value-added benefit rather than a hindrance to business and introduces the notion of certification, accreditation, and licensure. It demonstrates safeguards that layer outward from the entity and across the system with the ability to prevent, detect, and notify, as well as respond to and recover from a crisis. Emphasizing the sharing of information and methods, the book encourages security to become an integrated component within the system, not just imposed on top of it. It takes a holistic approach to the transportation infrastructure, introducing the concept of fragility and the measurable factors involved, and including a 20 page questionnaire to help managers determine their company’s fragility in terms of transportation security.
£99.99
Walker Books Ltd No Buddy Like a Book
Step aboard the Word Express. It's leaving from the station. The only ticket needed is your own imagination.Have you ever wanted to climb to the top of Everest with one hand behind your back? Kiss a crocodile all by yourself on the Nile river? How about learning how to bottle moonlight, or track a distant star? There are endless things to discover and whole universes to explore simply by reading a book. But books are only smears of ink without the reader’s mind to give their letters meaning and bring them to life. With a rollicking, rhyming text and delightful artwork, poet and storyteller Allan Wolf and illustrator Brianne Farley remind us that books, no matter how they may be consumed, give readers of every background an opportunity to expand their world and spark their imagination. With infectious enthusiasm, No Buddy Like a Book offers an ode to the wonders of language – written, spoken, and everything in between.
£7.99
John Wiley and Sons Ltd A Companion to Ayn Rand
The first volume to offer a comprehensive scholarly treatment of Rand’s entire corpus (including her novels, her philosophical essays, and her analysis of the events of her times), this Companion provides vital orientation and context for scholars and educated readers grappling with a controversial and understudied thinker whose enduring influence on American (and world) culture is increasingly recognized. The first publication to provide an in-depth scholarly treatment ranging over the whole of Rand’s corpus Provides informed contextual analysis for scholars in a variety of disciplines Presents original research on unpublished material and drafts from the Rand archives in California Features insightful and fair-minded interpretations of Rand’s controversial positions
£36.95
Vagabond Voices The Nocturnal Library
A fantastic evocation of life and learning in a dream sequence: Jerome, who has to sit an exam and suffers from toothache, enters a nighmarish library in which everything conspires to frustrate his desperate attempts to revise. Cavazzoni creates an entire world in this dream, whose absurd perhaps comments on the more muted absurdity of reality. The library contains geological and natural realities that plague the organic matter of which the books are made, demonstrating or at least suggesting the futility of human learning. In some parts of the building the books have turned into peat. Cavazzoni admits that his books pushe the novel to its very limits - "like outpourings of the maniacal," he says. "That's how they come to me, you must understand."
£13.22
John Wiley and Sons Ltd A Stranger in My Own Country: The 1944 Prison Diary
“I lived the same life as everyone else, the life of ordinary people, the masses.” Sitting in a prison cell in the autumn of 1944, the German author Hans Fallada sums up his life under the National Socialist dictatorship, the time of “inward emigration”. Under conditions of close confinement, in constant fear of discovery, he writes himself free from the nightmare of the Nazi years. He records his thoughts about spying and denunciation, about the threat to his livelihood and his literary work and about the fate of many friends and contemporaries. The confessional mode did not come naturally to Fallada, but in the mental and emotional distress of 1944, self-reflection became a survival strategy. Fallada’s frank and sometimes provocative memoirs were thought for many years to have been lost. They are published here for the first time.
£18.00
John Wiley and Sons Ltd Europe as I See It
What does "Europe" mean as we enter the 21st century? A rapidly-expanding club of nation states? A large single market in which labour, goods and services can move freely? A centralizing superstate run by unelected bureaucrats? An economic giant but a political pygmy on the world stage? Romano Prodi, President of the European Commission, tackles these and other questions in this important new book. It offers both a political vision and a personal statement by one of the most important political figures in Europe today. Central to Prodi's vision of Europe - what it can and should be - are the ideals of the European Union's founding fathers: Adenauer, De Gasperi, Monnet, Schuman. Their goal was a peaceful democratic Europe in which all the peoples of our continent could live together in security, freedom, justice and equality. The path towards that goal, argues Prodi, is inextricably bound up with economics. As the EU's Member States voluntarily pool their national sovereignty, especially monetary sovereignty, that dream - that vision of Europe - is gradually coming true. This book will be of great interest to anyone concerned with Europe and its future.
£15.99
John Wiley and Sons Ltd Old Age and Other Essays
This book by one of Italy's oldest and wisest intellectuals is a philosophical and personal meditation on ageing. The question of old age has preoccupied writers from Cicero to Améry, but in this volume Norberto Bobbio produces an account that is specific to our times. Born in 1909, Bobbio has lived through the major events of the past century, and his experiences of Fascism, Communism and the Cold War lend his reflections a melancholy that distinguishes them from earlier eulogies on old age and death. Bobbio's conclusions are often sobering, yet his investigation into memory and mortality is written with both humour and emotion. In the opening chapter, Bobbio reassesses the notion of progress from the perspective of an old man. Arguing for an understanding of historical change as the transfer between generations, Bobbio explains how the elderly are increasingly marginalized in contemporary society. Referring to the traditional idea of old age as the 'age of wisdom', Bobbio argues that our ever-accelerating technological progress has dramatically shifted the power of knowledge from old to young. This discussion of old age as a social problem is accompanied by a reflection on old age as a personal predicament. In his elegant and lucid prose, Bobbio confronts the facts of decrepitude and death. In taking stock of his life, he argues once again for the importance of democracy and human rights. This is a beautifully written book that will be of great interest to the academic and general reader alike. Its intellectual content renders it of particular value to students in the fields of philosophy, politics and the social sciences.
£52.00
John Wiley and Sons Ltd A Political Life: Norberto Bobbio
A Political Life is the compelling autobiography of Norberto Bobbio, one of the foremost political thinkers in postwar Italy. In dramatic and lively prose, Bobbio guides us through some of the most significant events of the twentieth century, charting their influence on his life and work. Born in 1909, Norberto Bobbio's early life was marked by the experience of growing up in Mussolini's Italy – an experience that helped to shape his passionate commitment to the anti-fascist cause. As a result of these early experiences, Bobbio has tirelessly emphasized the fundamental, unassailable importance of democratic rights in the modern state. He has been a voice of reason and moderation in a political context where democratic values have often been threatened by extremes. This masterly autobiography traces the development of Bobbio's political thought, providing a penetrating analysis of the changing political landscape of Italy. At the same time, it represents an intimate account of Bobbio's personal experiences, giving a rare insight into the life and work of this distinguished thinker.A Political Life will be of great interest to students and scholars of social and political theory and of Italian politics, as well as to a general readership interested in political biography and contemporary politics.
£60.00
Random House USA Inc The Definitive Book of Body Language: The Hidden Meaning Behind People's Gestures and Expressions
£27.00
Little, Brown & Company The Jolly Christmas Postman
£17.99
Manjul Publishing House Pvt Ltd Why Men Don't Listen and Women Can't Read Maps
£15.22
Facet Publishing Digital Literacies for Learning
In the 21st century, digital tools enable information to be generated faster and in greater profusion than ever before, to the point where its extent and value are literally beyond imagining. Such quantities can only be meaningfully addressed using more digital tools, and thus our relationship to information is fundamentally changed. This situation presents a particular challenge to processes of learning and teaching, and demands a response from both information professionals and educators. Enabling education in a digital environment means not only changing the form in which learning opportunities are offered, but also enabling students to survive and prosper in digitally based learning environments. This collection brings together a global community of educators, educational researchers, librarians and IT strategists, to consider how learners need to be equipped in an educational environment that is increasingly suffused with digital technology. Traditional notions of literacy need to be challenged, and new literacies, including information literacy and IT literacy, need to be considered as foundation elements for digitally involved learners. Leading international experts from the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Mexico and throughout Europe contribute to the debate, and Hannelore Rader, Librarian and Dean of the University Libraries, University of Louisville, Kentucky, provides the foreword. The book is in two parts: In Part 1, Literacies in the Digital Age, the contributors analyse how digital technologies have enabled transformative change in the ways in which learning can be constructed, and discuss the nature of the new literacies that have emerged in this new virtual and e-learning environment. In Part 2, Enabling and Supporting Digital Literacies, the contributors go on to consider the ways in which digital literacies can be made available to learners, and how these literacies are being relocated in a more student-centred environment within the broader perspective of learning. Readership: This book takes the issues raised in the successful Information and IT Literacy, also co-edited by Allan Martin, into a broader context. It is essential reading for all information professionals and educators involved in developing strategies and practices for learning in a digital age.
£69.95
Luath Press Ltd Naw First Minister
'Years have passed since the Scottish Independence Referendum was held and the political landscape has changed. Big Nellie Nellis has been voted First Minister, and things are about to get interesting as all the political parties are given the benefit of her very unparliamentary sound bites!'
£8.03
Luath Press Ltd 'Haud Ma Chips, Ah've Drapped the Wean!': Glesca Grannies' Sayings, Patter and Advice
An hilarious and often wise collection of Scots saying straight from the mouths of the Grannies of Glasgow. With each snippet accompanied by a straightforward English translation, this is your introduction to the unique wisdom of the 'Glesca Granny'.
£8.03
Walker Books Ltd Under the Table
Now here’s another story for you, full of such fun and exciting stuff, you will surely love it...Allan Ahlberg and Bruce Ingman are back! Hold on tight for a funny and quirky new story set in the same world as their celebrated classics, The Pencil and The Runaway Dinner.One morning, Banjo is helping his dad to wash the car. His little sister Elsie comes running up. "There's an egg in my egg cup!" she yells. "And a great big grey thing ... UNDER THE TABLE!" Brimming over with Allan Ahlberg's idiosyncratic voice, charm and character, and perfectly matched with Bruce Ingman's bold and playful illustrations, Under the Table is an irresistible read-aloud full of surprises ... oh, does Elsie discover such wonderful (and unexpected!) new friends in her lively and happy home!
£11.69
Allan Wright Photographic Scotland's Islands
£16.99
Penguin Random House Children's UK Kicking a Ball
For anyone who can't see a ball without wanting to kick it, head it, shoot it, or boot it! 'Not eating an ice-creamOr riding a bikeNo - kicking a ballIs what I like.''What I like best, yes, most of allin my whole life is . . . kicking a ball.A wonderful rhyming story to read aloud, Kicking A Ball will not disappoint fans of Allan Ahlberg. First written as a poem, the little boy in the story has been brought to life perfectly by artist Sebastien Braun. Every parent will be able to immediately relate to the simple joy felt by a boy simply kicking a ball, and how there is nothing else quite like it.The incomparable Allan Ahlberg takes us on a journey from childhood to fatherhood full of humour, warmth, friendship . . . and football.
£8.42
Penguin Random House Children's UK Bye Bye Baby: A Sad Story with a Happy Ending
This is a sad story- but it has a very happy ending. Once, there was a baby with no mummy- but he wanted a mummy very much. Deciding to take matters into his own hands, he set off to find one. Along the way he met lots of new friends, none of whom could be his mummy but wanted to help him find one.When they met a lady with a pram and no baby, the baby finally found his mummy- there was just one more thing he needed- a daddy! A beautiful story about finding your family, it can be used to talk about adoption, fostering and changing families. This Janet and Allan Ahlberg classic is a must for every bookshelf.
£8.42
Penguin Random House Children's UK Each Peach Pear Plum
Each Peach Pear Plum is a timeless picture book classic from the bestselling illustrator/author team Janet and Allan Ahlberg, creators of Peepo!. Each beautifully illustrated page encourages young children to interact with the picture to find the next fairy tale and nursery rhyme character. In this bookWith your little eye,Take a look,And play 'I spy'Praise for Each Peach Pear Plum:'Deceptively simple. Each Peach Pear Plum is a work of genius' Elaine Moss'This familiar rhyme has been given the brilliant Ahlbreg treatment to which no young child can fail to respond. It's a book which will be read over and over again . . . just perfect!' Child Education'A charming, pictorial fantasia...a warm, sunny, delectable picture book' Brian Alderson, The TimesAllan Ahlberg has published over 100 children's books and with his late wife Janet, created such award-winning children's picture books, including Peepo!, and the Kate Greenaway Medal winning The Jolly Postman.
£7.15
Penguin Random House Children's UK Funnybones: The Black Cat
In a dark dark streetThere is a dark dark house . . .In this FUNNYBONES story, the skeletons go sledging - WHEE! - and crashing - BANG!They can't see their bones in the white snow but they can see a black cat . . . until she slips into their dark, dark cellar . . .
£8.42
Kalandraka Que Risa de Huesos!
£20.78
Birlinn General Robert Burns and All That
Robert Burns And All That is a real-life adventure packed with historical facts about Scotland's national bard. Meet the lassies who stole Burns's heart and the creatures that inspired his poetry. Join his quest to rescue a lost musical treasure - and get chased by ghouls as he explores the dark side of life. Bursting with hilarious illustrations, Robert Burns And All That is a book that simply must be read for the sake of auld lang syne!
£8.32
Birlinn General Mary Queen of Scots and All That
Mary, Queen of Scots and All That is packed with historical facts about Scotland's headless heroine. Follow hot-blooded Mary's lifelong rivalry with her frosty cousin, Queen Elizabeth I of England - and discover why the Queen of Scots gets her head chopped off. Start at the beginning by finding out how well Mary gets on with her pushy Mum, her ladies-in-waiting and her first boyfriend. Work out why she is hated by Nasty Knox the preacher and his Edinburgh mob. Meet Mary's horrible husbands and understand what makes her marry them. Solve the mysterious murders of her nearest and dearest. Learn the truth about Mary's madness. Uncover the secret plots that earn the Queen of Scots a deadly date with her cousin's executioner - and decide for yourself whether Mary is guilty or innocent.
£8.32
Savas Beatie September Mourn: The Dunker Church of Antietam Battlefield
The Dunker Church is one of the most iconic structures of the American Civil War. Surprisingly, few people know much if anything about its fascinating story or the role it played within the community of Sharpsburg and its importance during and after the Battle of Antietam. September Mourn: The Dunker Church of Antietam by Alann D. Schmidt and Terry W. Barkley rectifies this oversight in the first book-length study of its kind. On September 17, 1862, two mighty armies grappled across the rolling hills, fields, and woodlots surrounding Sharpsburg, Maryland. The combat left more than 23,000 Union and Confederate soldiers killed, wounded, or captured, repulsed Lee’s invading Virginia army, and paved the way for the Emancipation Proclamation. Ironically, in the epicenter of that bloodiest day in American history stood a small whitewashed building dedicated to peace, equality, and the brotherhood of man. The German Baptist Brethren, or Dunkers (Dunkards) as they were colloquially known, built the Mumma Church of the Manor congregation in 1853 just nine years before Antietam. In addition to being a house of worship with important ties to the local community, the history of the Dunker Church is interwoven with such notable figures as Stonewall Jackson, Clara Barton, Abraham Lincoln, and even Mark Twain. The structure was heavily damaged during the battle, housed torn bodies as a hospital in its aftermath, and suffered a complete collapse before undergoing the long and arduous process of being rebuilt. Schmidt’s and Barkley’s impressive September Mourn is based upon years of meticulous research from both a Church of the Brethren (Dunkers) and a National Park Service perspective. The authors establish the importance of the structure to Sharpsburg and its citizens, its role during the battle and its aftermath, and how it helped establish tourism and education for future generations of Americans. The Dunker Church can finally take its place alongside the Alamo and Shiloh churches as one of the most notable houses of worship in American military history. September Mourn: The Dunker Church of Antietam is a must-read for anyone interested in the full story of the monumental battle and the community who lived through it.
£12.93
Candlewick Press,U.S. DragonQuest
£16.99
John Wiley and Sons Ltd The Future of the Classical
Every era has invented a different idea of the ‘classical’ to create its own identity. Thus the ‘classical’ does not concern only the past: it is also concerned with the present and a vision of the future. In this elegant new book, Salvatore Settis traces the ways in which we have related to our ‘classical’ past, starting with post-modern American skyscrapers and working his way back through our cultural history to the attitudes of the Greeks and Romans themselves. Settis argues that this obsession with cultural decay, ruins and a ‘classical’ past is specifically European and the product of a collective cultural trauma following the collapse of the Roman Empire. This situation differed from that of the Aztec and Inca empires whose collapse was more sudden and more complete, and from the Chinese Empire which always enjoyed a high degree of continuity. He demonstrates how the idea of the ‘classical’ has changed over the centuries through an unrelenting decay of ‘classicism’ and its equally unrelenting rebirth in an altered form. In the Modern Era this emulation of the ‘ancients’ by the ‘moderns’ was accompanied by new trends: the increasing belief that the former had now been surpassed by the latter, and an increasing preference for the Greek over the Roman. These conflicting interpretations were as much about the future as they were about the past. No civilization can invent itself if it does not have other societies in other times and other places to act as benchmarks. Settis argues that we will be better equipped to mould new generations for the future once we understand that the ‘classical’ is not a dead culture we inherited and for which we can take no credit, but something startling that has to be re-created every day and is a powerful spur to understanding the ‘other’.
£15.17
HarperCollins Publishers Inc The Six Crowns: Fire Over Swallowhaven
£14.39
HarperCollins Publishers Inc Magyk Low Price CD
£14.95
Vagabond Voices Fear in the World
Corrado Alvaro's Fear in the World was published a decade before Orwell's 1984, but is not well known outside Italy, perhaps because of the timing of the publication just before the Second World War. Alvaro had visited the Soviet Union as a journalist, but was probably motivated to write this dystopian novel by aspects of modernity that concerned him, particularly the use of fear for political purposes, not only in the Russia. He is interested in the psychology of fear and the extent to which individuals and the crowd participate in their own regimentation. The names of countries, cities and leading political figures such as Stalin are never referred to, but as in the works of Orwell, they are clearly there from the descriptions: the author was writing in a Fascist country against a Fascist censor and had to cut his cloth accordingly. This is a dark novel, not quite as dark as 1984, but it is more claustrophobic. The feel of inevitability is there from the first page, and it is experienced as we do in real life. The imagined takes us closer to where we really are. There is a love affair at the core of this novel, which is the cause of their problems, or quite possibly perceived by the lovers as the cause and therefore became the cause. The modern Leviathan appears to be a well-oiled machine, but towards the end it becomes clear that this is merely an appearance of efficiency and omniscience, but appearances can be powerful. Alvaro is particularly interested in how the state uses quasi-religious mechanisms and rituals to assert its power. The central character returns to the country after a long period abroad, and see things initially through foreign eyes, living a life similar to the one Alvaro did when in Russia. He is not a natural rebel, and very much wants to fit in, but it seems difficult to achieve. The regime boasts that it has an ally in history, but destiny is elusive, however much the characters feel that they are driven by it.
£13.22
Association for Scottish Literary Studies Traditional Tales
£13.22
Taylor & Francis Ltd Feeding the Under 5s
One young child in every four is overweight and one in ten is obese, some of the reasons for this are: a general lack of interest and understanding of food and cooking junk food being consumed every day a more sedentary school life. As a key issue that needs to be tackled early, starting with the under fives, this book offers: advice and recipe ideas for feeding young children properly ways to improve young children’s understanding of food and nutrition contemporary evidence and policies recommended by expert advisory bodies underlying reasons behind nutritional guidelines and food safety advice, and practical ways to implement them. The authors present all of this in plain English without assuming any prior knowledge of nutrition, food safety or health issues.
£19.47
Canongate Books The Death Of Men
It is 1978. Corrado Dusa is head of Italy's Christian Democrat Party and the country's Senior Minister. He is also considered to be the key figure in resolving the crisis of dissent and violence that permeates political life. But Dusa has been kidnapped and now his son, Bernardo, a member of a militant extremist group, has disappeared. The press is aghast while the family sense disaster. Can Dusa's release be negotiated? Under what conditions? And - most importantly - with what results? First published in 1981 (The Bodley Head Press) Massie's stylish and enthralling thriller won a Scottish Arts Council Award: exploring America's influence on Europe and the causes of terrorism, The Death of Men is sure to have an arresting affect on readers today.
£15.00
Birlinn General Columba and All That
Columba And All That is a real-life adventure packed with historical facts about the legendary Celtic saint. Join Columba as he leaves his home in Ireland for the undiscovered country of Scotland. Witness magic and miracles as Columba confronts the Loch Ness Monster and mysterious painted warriors. Packed with fantastic illustrations, Columba And All That is one man's epic quest to spread the Word of God in a strange land - and hoping the natives like what they hear! Aimed at children aged 8-12. Discover the difference between Christians and Pagans Find out how to make a Columban boat from animal skins Explore Columba's monastery at Iona Uncover Columba's dark secrets
£5.74
Templar Publishing Little Explorers: Outer Space
Little Explorers is a first information series for curious youngsters. With sturdy flaps to lift on every page, little ones can have hands-on fun discovering the wonders of our solar system and beyond. Readers can explore Earth's nearest neighbours - the planets and moons - as well as the stars and galaxies, then lift the flaps on astronauts and rockets to find out how we make amazing discoveries about our universe.
£10.99
Walker Books Ltd The Pencil
The acclaimed duo behind The Runaway Dinner and Previously imagine the comical world that comes to life when a pencil starts to draw…“A hilarious and utterly enchanting new classic” The Times A special 10th anniversary edition of a modern classic, The Pencil is a playful, witty, wonderfully quirky story about the power of imagination. Say hi to Banjo! Once a pencil draws him, there's no telling what will come next – a dog, a cat, a chase (of course), and a paintbrush to colour in an ever-expanding group of family and friends. But it's not long before the complaints begin – "This hat looks silly!" "My ears are too big!" – until the poor pencil has no choice but to draw … a rubber. Oh no! In the hands of Allan Ahlberg and Bruce Ingman, can anything but havoc and hilarity ensue? With gorgeous golden foil on the cover and spine, this edition is one to share and treasure.
£7.99
John Wiley & Sons Inc Process Evaluation for Public Health Interventions and Research
Process evaluation is an essential component of any program evaluation or intervention research effort. This important resource offers an overview of the history, purpose, strengths, and limitations of process evaluation and includes illustrative case material of the current state of the art in process evaluation. Process Evaluation for Public Health Interventions and Research fills an important gap in the literature for public health researchers, practitioners, scholars, trainers, and students.
£76.00
Potter/Ten Speed/Harmony/Rodale Why Men Don't Listen and Women Can't Read Maps: How We're Different and What to Do About It
£14.99
John Wiley and Sons Ltd A Political Life: Norberto Bobbio
A Political Life is the compelling autobiography of Norberto Bobbio, one of the foremost political thinkers in postwar Italy. In dramatic and lively prose, Bobbio guides us through some of the most significant events of the twentieth century, charting their influence on his life and work. Born in 1909, Norberto Bobbio's early life was marked by the experience of growing up in Mussolini's Italy – an experience that helped to shape his passionate commitment to the anti-fascist cause. As a result of these early experiences, Bobbio has tirelessly emphasized the fundamental, unassailable importance of democratic rights in the modern state. He has been a voice of reason and moderation in a political context where democratic values have often been threatened by extremes. This masterly autobiography traces the development of Bobbio's political thought, providing a penetrating analysis of the changing political landscape of Italy. At the same time, it represents an intimate account of Bobbio's personal experiences, giving a rare insight into the life and work of this distinguished thinker.A Political Life will be of great interest to students and scholars of social and political theory and of Italian politics, as well as to a general readership interested in political biography and contemporary politics.
£19.99
Princeton University Press Economic Forecasting
Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. * Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods* Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective* Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts* Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations* Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility* Features numerous empirical examples* Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation* Essential for practitioners and students alike
£72.00
Princeton University Press Garibaldi: Citizen of the World: A Biography
What adventure novelist could have invented the life of Giuseppe Garibaldi? The revolutionary, soldier, politician, and greatest figure in the fight for Italian unification, Garibaldi (1807-1882) brought off almost as many dramatic exploits in the Americas as he did in Europe, becoming an international freedom fighter, earning the title of the "hero of two worlds," and making himself perhaps the most famous and beloved man of his century. Alfonso Scirocco's Garibaldi is the most up-to-date, authoritative, comprehensive, and convincing biography of Garibaldi yet written. In vivid narrative style and unprecedented detail, and drawing on many new sources that shed fresh light on important events, Scirocco tells the full story of Garibaldi's fascinating public and private life, separating its myth-like reality from the outright myths that have surrounded Garibaldi since his own day. Scirocco tells how Garibaldi devoted his energies to the liberation of Italians and other oppressed peoples. Sentenced to death for his role in an abortive Genoese insurrection in 1834, Garibaldi fled to South America, where he joined two successive fights for independence--Rio Grande do Sul's against Brazil and Uruguay's against Argentina. He returned to Italy in 1848 to again fight for Italian independence, leading seven more campaigns, including the spectacular capture of Sicily. During the American Civil War, Abraham Lincoln even offered to make him a general in the Union army. Presenting Garibaldi as a complex and even contradictory figure, Scirocco shows us the pacifist who spent much of his life fighting; the nationalist who advocated European unification; the republican who served a king; and the man who, although compared by contemporaries to Aeneas and Odysseus, refused honors and wealth and spent his last years as a farmer.
£40.50
University of California Press Charlemagne: Father of a Continent
The most important study of Charlemagne in a generation, this biography by distinguished medievalist Alessandro Barbero illuminates both the man and the world in which he lived. Charles the Great—Charlemagne—reigned from a.d. 768 to a.d. 814. At the time if his death, his empire stretched across Europe to include Bavaria, Saxony, parts of Spain, and Italy. With a remarkable grasp of detail and a sweeping knowledge of Carolingian institutions and economy, Barbero not only brings Charlemagne to life with accounts of his physical appearance, tastes and habits, family life, and ideas and actions but also conveys what it meant to be king of the Franks and, later, emperor. He recounts how Charlemagne ruled his empire, kept justice, and waged wars. He vividly describes the nature of everyday life at that time, how the economy functioned, and how Christians perceived their religion. Barbero's absorbing analysis of how concepts of slavery and freedom were subtly altered as feudal relations began to grow underscores the dramatic changes that the emperor's wars brought to the political landscape. Engaging and informed by deep scholarship, this latest account provides a new and richer context for considering one of history's most fascinating personalities.
£21.00
Amberley Publishing Castle Douglas Through Time
The market town of Castle Douglas, beside Carlingwark Loch in the southern Scottish region of Dumfries and Galloway, is relatively new, though the area has been inhabited from prehistoric times and the Romans had a military base close by. In the fourteenth century, Archibald the Grim, the 3rd Earl of Douglas, built Threave Castle nearby. The town came into being thanks to fertiliser found in the loch and wealthy merchant William Douglas, who laid out the present town in 1792. Though his dream of creating a cotton industry failed, Castle Douglas became a flourishing market town. The opening of the rail line to Dumfries in 1859 improved the town’s connections. Though the railway closed in 1965, the A75 trunk road ensured the town’s survival as a major stopping point for travellers. Today, it is a major tourist destination, with many visitors using it as a base for exploring this beautiful part of Scotland. All these changes are recorded in this unique and fascinating series of new and old photographs, making this book essential reading for anyone interested in the history of Castle Douglas.
£15.99
Luath Press Ltd Last Tram tae Auchenshuggle!
The 50th anniversary of the last trams in Glasgow is 2012. The last regular tram in Glasgow ran on 1 September, 1962. However on the 2, 3 and 4 of September, a very special tram service was operated between Auchenshuggle and Anderson Cross, for which souvenir tickets were sold. The Last Tram tae Auchenshuggle is the hilarious patter and build up to the end of the Glasgow trams, featuring Glasgow's famous clippie, Big Aggie MacDonald.
£8.03
Canongate Books A Question Of Loyalties
Widely acclaimed as Massie's finest novel, A Question of Loyalties engages with all the complexities and ambiguities of loyalty, nationality and family as they are put under threat by betrayal, by errors of judgement, or simply friendship.Etienne de Balafré, half French, half English and raised in South Africa, returns to post-war France to unravel the tangled history of his own father. Was Lucien de Balafré a patriot who served his country as best he could in difficult times, or a treacherous collaborator in the Vichy government?Rife with the anguish of hindsight and the irony of circumstance, this powerful book brilliantly explores the ties between fathers and sons and the pains of love and duty in a period of European history that is still characterised by wilful denial and hatred.
£10.00
Harvard Business Review Press The High Potential's Advantage: Get Noticed, Impress Your Bosses, and Become a Top Leader
Do You Know What It Takes to Be a High Potential in Your Organization?Being seen as a high-potential leader is essential to getting promoted and reaching your organization's upper echelons, but most companies keep their top-talent list a closely guarded secret. And the assessment process they use to decide who is and isn't a future leader is an even greater mystery.The High Potential's Advantage takes you behind the scenes and shows how you can get on, and stay on, your company's fast track. Leadership development experts Jay Conger and Allan Church draw upon decades of research and experience--designing high-potential programs for hundreds of large well-known global organizations and assessing and coaching thousands of talented leaders--to answer the critical questions asked by ambitious individuals like you: What will it take for me to advance in this organization? What does my boss look for when deciding whether I’m a high potential? Once I'm on the list, then what? Can I fall off it and, if so, what do I do?Revealing the key differentiators--five critical "X factors"--that set people apart across companies of all types, Conger and Church show what you need to do to achieve and maintain top-talent status. You’ll find detailed advice for cultivating and practicing each X factor, with numerous and rich examples from those on the verge of their first promotion to those only a step away from the C-suite. The High Potential's Advantage also shows you how to gain insight into and excel at the specific process your company uses to identify and develop high potentials--and how to determine which unique capabilities your company values the most. The High Potential's Advantage is the essential guide to becoming a leader in your organization.
£22.78
Zenescope Entertainment Grimm Fairy Tales presents Day of the Dead
Death holds no power over her… Mary Medina is the one who wields power over the dead. What she doesn’t know is her ability is coveted by a Secret Order long forgotten in the Realms of the Grimm Universe. Drawn to New Orleans under mysterious circumstances, Mary quickly finds herself running for her life from those that want to use her and her power, for evil.
£17.99
Bundu Bunch Publishing Dumb Orphans: The Bundu Bunch Trilogy
The Bundu Bunch orphans, a community headman, a peer of the realm, a national leader. Some are more dumb than others. Some are not dumb at all. After losing their parents to the AIDS pandemic in southern Africa, Sipho and his fellow orphans cannot start school. Without an education, their prospects of escaping poverty are slim. Enter Aiyasha, the fifteen-year-old head of the orphan household. Aiyash uses her special talent to ensure her orphan charges receive the education they crave. But Aiyasha has a wider agenda: to promote social justice in her country where orphans will no longer have the “dumb” label attached to them. Features of Oliver Twist, Robin Hood and Dick Whittington and His Cat play out in a contemporary African setting in this heartwarming and inspirational story. “A charming and educational children’s book that inspires everyone to never give up, despite the odds.” Reedsy Discovery Team “This is a story that has stayed with me since I devoured the book's pages. This book is written for young audiences, but I truly loved it as a 42-year-old. I recommend that all audiences read this story and let the words and simplistic illustrations inspire and teach them. The storytelling is so well done.” Amanda Renz. “I did cry reading this book, a few times, tears of sadness at character deaths or misfortune and tears of joy for the moments of success and those heart-warming moments of bonding.” Romeo Aiyabei. “An inspiring, emotional, heart-warming book that provides awareness and can hook you with suspense. I loved the comedic relief. It never failed to liven up the book and make me smile. I highly recommend it for pre-teens and teenagers, but it would be a great read for anyone.” Candra Contreras. Synopsis “Dumb” Orphans: The Bundu Bunch Trilogy is a novel based on the real lives of victims of the deadliest global pandemic of our time. A group of left behind and left alone AIDS orphans are called “dumb” by others in their southern African community. They struggle to overcome this label and unfair treatment by their community headman. In the first book, Sipho takes readers on a journey through the lives and interests of his six fellow orphans, all aged 5-7 and known collectively as the Bundu Bunch. The group faces discrimination from both the headman of their community and other children, who belittle them for being unable to spell their own names. Although they yearn for an education, the headman does not allow them to attend school because of their inability to pay the fees. Instead, the headman forces the children to work for him. This bleak reality leads Sipho to worry that he’ll never achieve the same success as other children in his community. But the Bundu Bunch refuse to be held back by their circumstances. With the guidance of Aiyasha, the 15-year-old orphan who heads their household, they band together to devise a plan to improve their lives. The group’s perseverance and talent ultimately lead to a surprising outcome with some help from an unexpected source. Through their achievements, Sipho’s concerns are allayed, and he feels optimistic about his future. In the second book, Elah takes over as the narrator. Sipho and his sister Jabu found Elah as a baby abandoned by the river. Elah is in awe of the older orphans, the Bundu Bunch, and wonders if Aiyasha will ever be as proud of her as she is of them. Aiyasha’s success with her orphans offends the community headman. When she faces an attempt on her life two new friends from England help her and Elah to flee their country. Elah sees their situation as a grand adventure and relishes exploring unknown places. Their journey across Africa is a mixture of scary moments and enlightening experiences. As an illegal immigrant and asylum seeker in England, Aiyasha discovers that prejudice exists in cultures other than her own. However, she also learns that friendship and a shared purpose can overcome it. She also realises that international aid promises are not always reliable. With the help of her new friends, Aiyasha uses her special talent to counteract the consequences of government cuts in foreign aid budgets. In the last book, Elah takes the narration to its conclusion. Aiyasha increasingly relies on Elah for her support and empathy as she manipulates her way to a powerful position in her own country of Initawse. Aiyasha implements pro-poor policies which are opposed by the privileged, who mount protests and demand that she is removed. Then tragedy strikes and Aiyasha disappears, presumed murdered by her political enemies. Sipho joins with one of the English girls to investigate, but they hit a dead end. Meanwhile, the talents of the rest of the Bundu Bunch shine ever more brightly in their own country and internationally. Elah watches on in dismay as she realises how much in their shadow she remains. Finally, Aiyasha reveals her secret whereabouts to her orphan family. She explains how, in reaching her ultimate goal, she has relied in equal measure on the various strengths of all her orphan charges, including Elah.
£9.04
Amberley Publishing A History of Fairground Transport: From Horses to Artics
Travelling fairs hold a special place in English history and traditions. Once or twice a year local towns and villages are overwhelmed with a cacophony of sounds, sights and smells, bringing magic and excitement into peoples’ lives before, all too quickly, moving on. The transient nature of travelling fairs is part of their magic, and an integral part of that magic is the transport that carries the people and the rides. More than just vehicles however, fairground transport is often an integral part of the show, acting as homes for the showmen, a way of generating power and even converting into parts of the rides themselves. In short, they are part of the way of life. This book looks at the history of the travelling fair through its transport, beginning with how it has evolved from what a performer could carry on their back and simple horse-drawn caravans, through to steam-powered traction engines and war surplus petrol and electric vehicles, finally bringing the story up to date with today’s mega lorries and cranes.
£15.99