Description
Book SynopsisThis publication represents the report of the Scenario Committee on Ageing. In addition to the scenario report, a background report containing the basic analysis employed in the scenarios on ageing has been prepared.
Table of ContentsSummary.- 1 Introduction.- 1.1 Background.- 1.2 Design and course of the scenario project on ageing.- 1.3 Taking a further look at scenarios.- 1.4 Design of the report.- 2 Scenario A: The reference scenario.- 2.1 Introduction.- 2.2 Demographic developments.- 2.2.1 Population size.- 2.2.2 Composition of the category of elderly.- 2.3 The state of health of the elderly.- 2.4 Social developments.- 2.4.1 Introduction.- 2.4.2 Educational level of the elderly.- 2.4.3 Emancipation of the elderly.- 2.4.4 Reduced number of children.- 2.4.5 Emancipation of women.- 2.4.6 Tolerance of euthanasia.- 2.4.7 Improvement of pensions.- 2.4.8 The position of the elderly in society.- 2.5 The demand for (health) care facilities.- 2.5.1 Introduction.- 2.5.2 The development of facilities.- 2.5.3 GP care.- 2.5.4 Ambulatory mental health care.- 2.5.5 Homes for the elderly.- 2.5.6 Nursing homes.- 2.5.7 Day treatment in nursing homes.- 2.5.8 Hospitals.- 2.5.9 District nursing.- 2.5.10 Home help.- 2.5.11 Dwellings for the elderly.- 2.5.12 Co-ordinated work for the elderly.- 2.6 The economic context.- 3 Medical and medical-technological developments.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Expectations with respect to medicine and pharmacology.- 3.3 Expectations with respect to technology.- 3.3.1 The costs aspect.- 3.3.2 Medical-technical apparatus.- 3.3.3 Technical aids.- 3.3.4 Nursing.- 3.3.5 Information technology and epidemiology.- 3.4 Towards a second medical revolution?.- 3.5 Expectations with respect to cell biology.- 3.5.1 What is ageing?.- 3.5.2 Biotechnology.- 3.5.3 Immunology.- 3.5.4 Neurobiology.- 3.5.5 Conclusion.- 3.6 Concluding remarks.- 4 Scenario B: Increasing growth in demand for facilities.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 Social developments as they affect the health situation.- 4.2.1 The elderly of the future.- 4.2.2 Values and norms as applying to the elderly.- 4.2.3 Volunteer work.- 4.2.4 Decreasing solidarity.- 4.2.5 Attitudes to sickness and health.- 4.2.6 Increasing professionalization.- 4.3 Consequences for facilities.- 4.4 The economic context.- 5 Scenario C: Decreasing growth in demand for facilities.- 5.1 Introduction.- 5.2 Social developments as they affect the health situation.- 5.2.1 Altered attitudes with respect to sickness and health.- 5.2.2 Work.- 5.2.3 Pensioning.- 5.2.4 Long-term consequences for health.- 5.3 Developments relating to facilities for the elderly.- 5.3.1 Central points of departure.- 5.3.2 Sojourn and care function.- 5.3.3 Nursing and medical treatment (diagnosis and therapy).- 5.3.4 Conclusions with respect to facilities.- 5.4 The economic context.- 6 Disturbing developments.- 6.1 Introduction.- 6.2 Postponement of dementia.- 6.2.1 Justification of choice.- 6.2.2 Some epidemiological aspects of dementia.- 6.2.3 Medical-technological developments relating to dementia.- 6.2.4 Towards a calculation model.- 6.3 Extreme decrease in intergenerational solidarity.- 6.3.1 Justification of choice.- 6.3.2 Some basic data on the aid relationship children-parents.- 6.3.3 Towards a calculation model.- 6.4 Intersecting developments in relation to the scenarios.- 7 Application possibilities for scenarios.- 7.1 Introduction.- 7.2 Scenarios as ‘learning environments’.- 7.3. Scenarios and health care facilities for the elderly.- 7.4 A closer look at putting the scenario report to active use.- 7.5 Concluding remarks.- Appendices.
