Search results for ""chance""

Mathematics of Chance utilizes simple, real-world problems-some of which have only recently been solved-to explain fundamental probability theorems, methods, and statistical reasoning. Jiri Andel begins with a basic introduction to probability theory and its important points before moving on to more specific sections on vital aspects of probability, using both classic and modern problems. Each chapter begins with easy, realistic examples before covering the general formulations and mathematical treatments used. The reader will find ample use for a chapter devoted to matrix games and problem sets concerning waiting, probability calculations, expectation calculations, and statistical methods. A special chapter utilizes problems that relate to areas of mathematics outside of statistics and considers certain mathematical concepts from a probabilistic point of view. Sections and problems cover topics including: * Random walks * Principle of reflection * Probabilistic aspects of records * Geometric distribution * Optimization * The LAD method, and more Knowledge of the basic elements of calculus will be sufficient in understanding most of the material presented here, and little knowledge of pure statistics is required. Jiri Andel has produced a compact reference for applied statisticians working in industry and the social and technical sciences, and a book that suits the needs of students seeking a fundamental understanding of probability theory.

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Chance, Calculation and Life brings together 16 original papers from the colloquium of the same name, organized by the International Cultural Center of Cerisy in 2019. From mathematics to the humanities and biology, there are many concepts and questions related to chance. What are the different types of chance? Does chance correspond to a lack of knowledge about the causes of events, or is there a truly intrinsic and irreducible chance? Does chance preside over our decisions? Does it govern evolution? Is it at the origin of life? What part do chance and necessity play in biology? This book answers these fundamental questions by bringing together the clear and richly documented contributions of mathematicians, physicists, biologists and philosophers who make this book an incomparable tool for work and reflection.

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Give fun a chance! Surprise your mum with a chainsaw, be a bigger star than Tom Cruise, save the world with a plate of vegetables, start your new life in a taxi, rescue your family with a tomato, send your dad into a panic with a tractor, do a good deed with a paper bag on your head, pack your suitcase for a trip to the spleen, upset your auntie with ten kilos of chocolate, swap a bomb for three ice creams on a steam train . . . and lots more.

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For Rod Mengham sculpture and painting exist in the world the way poems do. He invokes the Polish sculptor Katarzyna Kobro, who believes that sculpture must be understood as part of the world around it. In Chance of a Storm, poetry is language that comes trailing bits of other forms of speech and writing. 'Poems should be finished, but be still hot to the touch, giving a vivid sense of the thinking and feeling that went into their creation,' he says. Drew Milne speaks of the poems' 'beautiful, belligerent laconicism'. While the lyric is central to his work, it cannot shrug off the ambition of epic, scaled down but still latent. This telescoping informs the structure of these prose poems, a species of modernist fable.

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When her husband suggests a romantic break, Claire feels obliged to say yes but immediately regrets it. After the tragedy they've been through, how can one weekend in Paris save their marriage? Claire and Ronan aren't the only people on a make-or-break visit to the City of Love. There is a big-shot movie producer from Hollywood, full of regret for a life ill-lived; a student from Boston, torn between love and duty; a Ukrainian refugee struggling to protect her little sister; and an old woman from Dijon, hoping to be braver than she has ever had to be before.When their lives briefly intertwine, something extraordinary happens...

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Trust is essential to the foundation of America’s democracy, asserts Pete Buttigieg, the former presidential candidate and South Bend mayor. Yet, in a century warped by terrorism, financial collapse, Trumpist populism, systemic racism, and now a global pandemic, trust has been squandered, sacrificed, abused, stolen, or never properly built in the first place. And now, more so than ever before, Americans must work side by side to reckon with the monumental challenges posed by our present moment. Interweaving history, political philosophy, and affecting passages of memoir, Buttigieg explores the strong relationship between measures of prosperity and levels of social trust. He provides an impassioned account of a threefold crisis of trust: in our institutions, in each other, and in the American project itself. Today, these perilous patterns of distrust have wreaked havoc on nearly every sector of society, as Americans increasingly resent the very government that needs to be part of the solution. With the internet and partisan television networks acting as accelerants, Americans jettison any sense of shared reality, lose confidence in experts and scientists, and cope with the grim national tragedy of a pandemic that has only further exemplified the lethality of distrust. Buttigieg contends that our success, or failure, at confronting the greatest challenges of the decade—racial and economic justice, pandemic resilience, and climate action—will rest on whether we can effectively cultivate, deepen, and, where necessary, repair the networks of trust that are now endangered, or for so many, have never even existed. An urgent call to foster an “American way of trust” at this painfully polarized juncture in the nation’s history, Trust is a direct reckoning with the prevailing corruption of social responsibility. Yet refusing to give in to the despair that threatens our foundations, Trust seeks to inspire Americans to build a powerful movement that will define all of us in the years to come.

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Not sure whether to high-five bees or run away from them? Well, maybe you shouldn't high-five them, but you definitely don't have to run away from them. In this enthusiastic, hands-on approach to bees, the book's narrator will convince the pizza-loving bee skeptic - and you - of just how cool bees really are.

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NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLERTrust will be our essential tool as we face unique challenges of the decades ahead.'The most interesting political mind since Barack Obama' GuardianIn a century warped by terrorism, Trumpism, financial collapse, populism, systemic racism, Russian interference and a global pandemic, trust within and among nations has been squandered, sacrificed, abused, stolen, or never properly built in the first place. In a piercing exploration of the soul of the American nation involving history, philosophy and memoir, former presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg explores the strong relationship between prosperity and social trust. Our success, or failure, in confronting the greatest challenges of the decade - racial and economic justice, pandemic resilience, and climate action - will rest on whether we can effectively cultivate, deepen and repair the networks of trust that are now endangered, or for so many, have never even existed. This means trust in institutions, in each other, and in the democratic project itself.

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Harry Potter meets Robin Stevens in this thrilling magical murder mystery! 'This mystery is a worthy prizewinner ... a jolly, atmospheric mystery.' THE TIMES 'Thornton, like [Agatha] Christie, can turn murder into a thoroughly comforting bedtime read.' THE TELEGRAPH 'All kinds of fun' THE OBSERVER 'Featuring magical antics, a talking cat and a locked-room murder mystery, Seth's story reads like an old-school whodunnit with added wizards and spells and echoes of ancient sorcery.' BOOKTRUST Seth is the downtrodden kitchen boy at the remote Last Chance Hotel, owned by the nasty Bunn family. His only friend is his black cat, Nightshade. But when a strange gathering of magicians arrives for dinner, kindly Dr Thallomius is poisoned by Seth's special dessert. A locked-room murder investigation ensues – and Seth is the main suspect. The funny thing is, he's innocent ... can he solve the mystery and clear his name, especially when magic's afoot? A magical locked-room murder mystery: Agatha Christie meets Harry Potter! Readers aged 9+ will love guessing whodunnit with the novel’s fantastic ensemble cast The Seth Seppi Mysteries continue in book 2, The Bad Luck Lighthouse, and book 3, The Cut-Throat Café Nightshade the cat becomes the star of her very own adventure in the first book Nicki Thornton's new series, The Howling Hag Mystery! MORE PRAISE FOR THE LAST CHANCE HOTEL: 'Wonderfully atmospheric' DAILY EXPRESS 'A magical blend of murder and mystery for super-sleuthing fans everywhere.' SUNDAY EXPRESS 'There are plenty of surprises and some shocks in store as this intriguing story develops, drawing the reader in and stirring their detective juices' PRIMARY TIMES 'If you like whodunnits, you’ll enjoy this mystery, inspired by Agatha Christie and Enid Blyton, but set in a magical world. Entertaining and inventive' THE WEEK JUNIOR

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Should you move on if life gives you a second chance? Aditya Arora spent the last years of high school watching his first love, Neela, die of cancer. College, he hopes, will be a fresh start. But when the past comes back to haunt him in the form of his late girlfriend's father, Professor Krishnan, the year soon turns out to be harder than his worst nightmare. However, Aditya is not so far gone that he can't make friends. With the help of Kaveri, Justin and Mausammi, he slowly begins building resistance to Krishnan's spitefulness and anger. As relationships change and academic pressures reach inhuman levels, Aditya learns some important lessons in trust, acceptance and, of course, moving on. Hopefully, he won't be the only one learning them!

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A heartfelt middle-grade novel about a theater-loving girl who uses a wheelchair for mobility and her quest to defy expectations—and gravity—from Tony award–winning actress Ali Stroker and Stacy Davidowitz Thirteen-year-old Nat Beacon loves a lot of things: her dog Warbucks, her best friend Chloe, and competing on her wheelchair racing team, the Zoomers, to name a few. But there’s one thing she’s absolutely OBSESSED with: MUSICALS! From Hamilton to Les Mis, there’s not a cast album she hasn’t memorized and belted along to. She’s never actually been in a musical though, or even seen an actor who uses a wheelchair for mobility on stage. Would someone like Nat ever get cast? But when Nat’s family moves from California to New Jersey, Nat stumbles upon auditions for a kids’ production of Wicked, one of her favorite musicals ever! And she gets into the ensemble! The other cast members are super cool and inclusive (well, most of them)— especially Malik, the male lead and cutest boy Nat’s ever seen. But when things go awry a week before opening night, will Nat be able to cast her fears and insecurities aside and “Defy Gravity” in every sense of the song title?

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With danger drawing ever closer, their only hope of saving their futures lies in each other. As a midwife, Catherine Remington is successful in bringing new life into the world, but she's failed one too many times in finding true love. When she's accused of a murder she didn't commit, she's forced to flee to Colorado to honor a patient's dying wish by delivering a newborn infant to his father. The repentant prodigal Dylan McQuaid is finally back in Fairplay. As sheriff, he's doing his best to prove to the town he's a changed man and worthy of their trust. When a woman shows up with an infant son he didn't know he had, Dylan is left with only complicated choices on what to do next. Having grown attached to Dylan's son, Catherine doesn't want to part ways with the infant, but what she doesn't bargain for is how easily she'll fall for the charming sheriff, or how quickly the past will catch up with her and put their love and lives in danger.

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“America’s best true-crime writer” (Kirkus Reviews) presents an all-new collection of crime stories drawn from her private files and featuring the riveting case of a fraudulent doctor whose lifelong deceptions had deadly consequences. The inspiration behind the upcoming Lifetime movie event Desperate Hours. Dr. Anthony Pignataro was a cosmetic surgeon and a famed medical researcher whose flashy red Lamborghini and flamboyant lifestyle in western New York State suggested a highly successful career. But appearances can be deceiving—and, for the doctor’s wife, very nearly deadly. Now, the motivations of the classic sociopath are plumbed with chilling accuracy by Ann Rule. Along with other shocking true cases, this worldwide headline-making case will have you turning pages in disbelief that a trusted medical professional could sink to the depths of greed, manipulation, and self-aggrandizement where even slow, deliberate murder is not seen for what it truly is: pure evil.

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The London 2012 Olympic medalist on his stunning comeback.Mark Todd's eventing career is the stuff of legends and encompasses one of the greatest sporting comebacks of all time.When he 'retired' from competing in eventing in 2000, he had already been named 'Rider of the Century' for his natural empathy with a horse and his extraordinary success, which included back-to-back Olympic gold medals, five Burghley wins and three Badminton victories. He has also show jumped to Olympic level and trained winners on the racecourse. Considered a legendary horseman by his peers, he seemed to have done it all.He returned to train racehorses in his native New Zealand but, eight years later, the idea of a comeback took root, part dare, part personal challenge to see if he could still cut it in a changed sport. Within eight months, he was riding at the 2008 Beijing Olympics and in 2011 he hit the headlines by becoming the oldest rider to win Badminton. This was soon eclipsed by his stunning win at the London 2012 Olympics, however. The story of his progress from dairy farmer to world renown, is told with typically laid-back humour, but it reveals the fierce determination, discipline and personal sacrifice which lies behind the relaxed outlook.

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'Last Chance captures the essence of Southern charm and quirkiness. I'm totally captivated!' - Sherryl Woods, New York Times bestselling authorJenny Carpenter is the unrivaled pie-baking champion of Last Chance, South Carolina's annual Watermelon Festival and the town's unofficial spinster. With her dream of marriage and children on hold, she focuses on another dream, turning the local haunted house into a charming bed-and-breakfast. But her plans go off course when the home's former owner shows up on her doorstep on a dark and stormy night . . .Mega-bestselling horror writer Gabriel Raintree is as mysterious and tortured as his heroes. His family's long-deserted mansion is just the inspiration he needs to finish his latest twisted tale, or so he thinks until he learns it's been sold. The new innkeeper proves to be as determined as she is kind, and soon Gabriel finds himself a paying guest in his own home. As Jenny and Gabe bring new passion to the old house, can she convince him to leave the ghosts of his past behind-and make Last Chance their first choice for a future together?

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'His campaign was historic for all America' GuardianTrust will be our essential tool as we face unique challenges of the decades ahead. In a century warped by terrorism, Trumpism, financial collapse, populism, systemic racism, Russian interference and a global pandemic, trust within and among nations has been squandered, sacrificed, abused, stolen, or never properly built in the first place. In a piercing exploration of the soul of the American nation involving history, philosophy and memoir, former presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg explores the strong relationship between prosperity and social trust. Our success, or failure, in confronting the greatest challenges of the decade - racial and economic justice, pandemic resilience, and climate action - will rest on whether we can effectively cultivate, deepen and repair the networks of trust that are now endangered, or for so many, have never even existed. This means trust in institutions, in each other, and in the democratic project itself.

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This book begins with a historical essay entitled “Will the Sun Rise Again?” and ends with a general address entitled “Mathematics and Applications”. The articles cover an interesting range of topics: combinatoric probabilities, classical limit theorems, Markov chains and processes, potential theory, Brownian motion, Schrödinger-Feynman problems, etc. They include many addresses presented at international conferences and special seminars, as well as memorials to and reminiscences of prominent contemporary mathematicians and reviews of their works. Rare old photos of many of them enliven the book.

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USA Today bestselling author Hope Ramsey returns to Last Chance, South Carolina for a sassy and heartwarming story that will appeal to fans of Debbie Macomber, Robyn Carr and Sherryl Woods.

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'Smart and funny' – Ruth Hogan, author of The Keeper of Lost ThingsThe first step was learning to read, but if she really wants to turn her life around, Maggsie is going to have to trust other people – and that might just be the hardest lesson she’s ever faced . . . Small and dyslexic, with a short fuse, bad teeth, a prison record and something to prove, Marguerite McNaughton – Maggsie – doesn't need anybody or anything, thank you very much. She's more than capable of looking after herself. She’s also about to discover that everyone needs someone, sometimes. Even her. The thing about trusting others, though, is that not everyone is trustworthy . . . It starts when a fellow inmate gives Maggsie reading lessons. Then she's offered a job in London as a kitchen assistant, together with supported accommodation and a colleague who seems determined to befriend Maggsie, no matter what.At first, Maggsie is convinced nothing will change. Especially her. But maybe this time can be different? Maybe Maggsie can be different – if she can just put her previous mistakes behind her and her trust in the right people. Maggsie McNaughton's Second Chance, by Frances Maynard, is an uplifting, heartwarming novel about the power of friendship and the written word, perfect for fans of Eleanor Oliphant is Completely Home, Three Things about Elsie and Elizabeth is Missing.

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Give Methods a Chance offers a unique multimedia introduction to research methods. This volume, which builds on podcast interviews available at TheSocietyPages.org, introduces readers to some of the most creative, exciting, and influential researchers in sociology. These stories from the field are designed to demystify the research process and show how methods are put into action. The text and complementary podcasts offer a distinctive, first-person window into how sociologists generate knowledge: the fun, the headaches, the workarounds, and the care and passion needed to get things right. This volume is organized into four sections: Interpretive and Qualitative Methods, Explanatory and Quantitative Methods, Mixed Methods, and Innovations. The first section engages scholars who employ an array of qualitative approaches to better understand the social world. In the second section, Green and Lageson bring together scholars who use quantitative approaches to transform the social world into analyzable data sets. The third section highlights scholars who use multiple methods within a single study, often drawing on both quantitative and qualitative data, and employing elements of the exploratory, descriptive, interpretative, and explanatory. In the final section, the authors look at new and exciting methodological innovations with a group of scholars pushing the field forward, using new technologies to gather previously inaccessible data, examining new virtual communities and online spaces of communication, and employing methods from outside the discipline in creative ways. This straightforward organizational scheme will map seamlessly onto existing texts and syllabi in research methodology, introductory sociology, and capstone courses, while the content uniquely conveys the voices of researchers.

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