Search results for ""Unknown Unknowns""

With over 30 years’ experience of risk management in banks, Mark Laycock provides a comprehensive but succinct non-technical overview of risk and its governance in financial institutions. Bridging the gap between texts on governance and the increasingly technical aspects of risk management the book covers the main risk types experienced by banks – credit, market, operational and liquidity - outlines those risks before considering them from a governance perspective including the Board and Executive Management. Addressing terminology issues that can confuse dialogue, and by providing a bibliography alongside each chapter for more detailed discussion of the topic this book will ground readers with the knowledge they require to understand the unknown unknowns.

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We pay a great deal of attention to pursuit of knowledge, but overlook its constant companion: ignorance. Where our world is inundated with information, from 24-hour news and social media and the internet of things, what we do not know can be just as important as what we do. Agnotology—the study of ignorance—is a rising field of inquiry, and set to become increasingly important as reforms to education and knowledge creation rattle the foundations of traditional disciplines. Ignorance has rapidly proliferated in the early twenty-first century. Since US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld penned his famous memo on known knowns, unknown knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns, it has become a key, yet unseen, factor in global decision-making—in politics, business, and various complex networks exemplified by Covid-19. In this issue, ignorance is given its long overdue analysis, and its role in our chaotic times examined. About 'Critical Muslim': A quarterly publication of ideas and issues showcasing groundbreaking thinking on Islam and what it means to be a Muslim in a rapidly changing, interconnected world. Each edition centres on a discrete theme, and contributions include reportage, academic analysis, cultural commentary, photography, poetry, and book reviews.

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Uncertainty is everywhere. It lurks in every consideration of the future - the weather, the economy, the sex of an unborn child - even quantities we think that we know such as populations or the transit of the planets contain the possibility of error. It's no wonder that, throughout that history, we have attempted to produce rigidly defined areas of uncertainty - we prefer the surprise party to the surprise asteroid. We began our quest to make certain an uncertain world by reading omens in livers, tea leaves, and the stars. However, over the centuries, driven by curiosity, competition, and a desire be better gamblers, pioneering mathematicians and scientists began to reduce wild uncertainties to tame distributions of probability and statistical inferences. But, even as unknown unknowns became known unknowns, our pessimism made us believe that some problems were unsolvable and our intuition misled us. Worse, as we realized how omnipresent and varied uncertainty is, we encountered chaos, quantum mechanics, and the limitations of our predictive power. Bestselling author Professor Ian Stewart explores the history and mathematics of uncertainty. Touching on gambling, probability, statistics, financial and weather forecasts, censuses, medical studies, chaos, quantum physics, and climate, he makes one thing clear: a reasonable probability is the only certainty.

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The truth about China’s financial industry—and the growing bubble that’s guaranteed to blow it apart… In recent years, the Chinese economy has been fueled by the implicit guarantee of major banks and local governments by the nation’s central government. The resultant bubble has led to the emergence of a large shadow banking industry that poses major risks to China’s real estate market, speculative stock investments, state-owned enterprises, and more. It’s not a matter of if China’s bubble will burst. It’s a matter of when. This eye-opening book from renowned financial scholar Ning Zhu provides a provocative in-depth analysis of China’s current economic practices—and the profound dangers they pose—as well as a powerful wake-up call to investors, regulators, and the entire financial industry. Zhu’s book is packed with startling revelations, including: * The enormous impact of China’s implicit guarantees on economic growth—and what will happen when those guarantees are gone* The ever-increasing size of China’s shadow banking industry—and how it’s just the tip of the iceberg* The once-reliable strength of China’s real estate and stock markets—and how they’re threatened by government distortion* The latest financial innovations and channels—and how they are circumventing regulations and triggering unprecedented risks Filled with fascinating case studies, worst case scenarios, and a well-argued case for much-needed reforms, Zhu’s enlightening book is a must-read for anyone with interests or investments in China’s rapidly changing economy. You’ll find intriguing new perspectives on traditional growth models, innovative solutions for overcapacity problems, and revealing new stats on so-called Voodoo Statistics. You’ll get a glimpse behind the curtain of the “unknown unknowns” of China’s implicit guarantees—and learn just how risky these government policies can be. Most importantly, Zhu’s book provides solid recommendations for diffusing the time bomb these guarantees can and will set off. Brilliant, incisive, and ultimately optimistic, China’s Guaranteed Bubble will incite a much-needed call for change and set us on a new path of prosperity and growth—for China, the economy, and the world.

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