Description
Book SynopsisAt last, a comprehensive guide that meets psychologists and other social scientists'' growing need to master the tools of statistical prediction.Prediction Statistics for Psychological Assessment, by R. Karl Hanson, is the first book to teach students and practitioners the nuts and bolts of prediction statistics, while illustrating the utility of prediction and prediction tools in applied psychological practice.
This valuable resource uses real-world examples, helpful explanations and practice exercises to support the use of prediction tools in psychological assessment.
Actuarial risk assessment evaluators need to know how prediction tools work, how to evaluate them, and how to interpret their results in applied assessments.
Written in a clear and accessible manner, this user-friendly book helps readers understand how to evaluate and interpret different kinds of prediction tools, appreciate the numeric information used in risk communication, and utilize prediction tools to inform evidence-based decision making.
Trade ReviewKarl Hanson, one of the preeminent experts on criminal risk prediction, has produced an informative text that should be required reading for any professional involved in mental health assessment. Dr. Hanson skillfully presents complex concepts in a simple to read and understand text that will inform the future of psychological (and other mental health) assessment. A must-have on the bookshelf of practitioners and researchers alike. -- Robert D. Morgan, PhD, Dean, College of Health and Human Sciences, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL, United States
Karl Hanson—an international luminary in the field of psychological assessment—has written a cogent, meticulous, and comprehensive guide to the statistics used to predict human behavior. This lucidly written work will have an immense and long-lasting impact on the field. It needs to be within arm’s reach on the bookshelf of every clinical researcher and every evidence-based clinician. -- John Monahan, PhD, Shannon Distinguished Professor of Law, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States
Advances in the field of risk assessment have been facilitated by improvements in prediction statistics. Until now there has been no comprehensive guide for those in the field. As a research and practice leader, Hanson delivers a learned volume that is readily accessible. It teaches specific statistics along with the role of prediction statistics in forensic assessment. It is a must-read for forensic researchers and practitioners intending to put research into practice. -- Distinguished Professor James Ogloff, AM, Director, Centre for Forensic Behavioural Science, Swinburne University of Technology, and Executive Director, Psychological Services & Research, Forensicare, Victoria, Australia
Table of ContentsPreface
Part I: Background and OverviewChapter 1: Introduction to Prediction Statistics in Psychology
Chapter 2: The Nature of Probability
Chapter 3: Overview of the Statistics Chapters
Part II: Statistics for Describing LikelihoodsChapter 4: Proportions
Chapter 5: Discrete-Time Survival Analysis
Chapter 6: Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis
Part III: Discrimination and Relative RiskChapter 7: Dichotomous Predictors
Chapter 8: Area Under the Curve
Chapter 9: Cohen's
dChapter 10: Cox Regression
Chapter 11: Logistic Regression
Part IV: CalibrationChapter 12: Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit
Chapter 13: The E/O Index
Chapter 14: Meta-Analysis
Chapter 15: Calibration Plots
Part V: Percentile RanksChapter 16: Percentiles
Part VI: Practice ConsiderationsChapter 17: Estimating the Quality of Prediction Tools
Chapter 18: Standardizing Risk Communication
Chapter 19: Going Even Further
Appendix: Useful Algebra and Notation
Glossary
References
Index
About the Authors
