Description
Book SynopsisThis
Handbook aims to provide an overview of regular survey activities, as well as to show how survey results can be used scientifically in the context of business-cycle analysis and forecasting.
Examples of various business surveys are described in detail, starting with their objectives, the questions they pose, how they are weighted and extrapolated and the representativeness of their results. A detailed scientific examination of the explanatory value of the data is also made in order to demonstrate their potential usefulness. The Handbook has three parts: firstly, it presents the importance of business surveys for empirical research. Secondly, selected surveys are introduced in detail such as the Ifo Business Survey and the Ifo Investment Survey, and thirdly, a broad spectrum of studies - on the consequence of the survey results - is presented. The significance of the surveys applies equally to business cycle analysis and to forecasting. An array of modern methods of time series analysis and econometric model construction is used in these investigations.
This book will be of interest to an audience comprising members of institutions conducting business surveys, scientists using survey results to analyse and forecast business cycles, and students of empirical economic research.
Table of ContentsContents: Introduction PART I: PHENOMENON OF BUSINESS CYCLES 1. The Importance of Representative Surveys of Enterprises for Empirically Oriented Business Cycle Research Gernot Nerb PART II: BUSINESS SURVEYS OF THE IFO INSTITUTE 2. Business Survey in Manufacturing Wolfgang Ruppert 3. Business Survey in Services Harald Blau 4. Investment Survey in Manufacturing Annette Weichselberger 5. World Economic Survey Anna Stangl 6. Innovation Survey Horst Penzkofer PART III: ANALYTICAL AND PROGNOSTIC SIGNIFICANCE OF SURVEY DATA 7. Short-Term Industry Branch Forecasting Based on the Results of the Ifo Business Survey Georg Goldrian 8. The Significance of the Ifo Business Survey Data at the Regional Level Georg Goldrian 9. Suitability of WES Data for Forecasting Inflation Sandra Hamella and Harry Haupt 10. Methods of Economic Forecasting and Business Cycle Indicators Wolfgang Nierhaus and Jan-Egbert Sturm 11. Evaluation and Development of Composite Leading Indicators Based on Harmonised Business and Consumer Surveys Jürg D. Lindlbauer 12. A Leading Indicator Composed of Survey Data: Appropriate Construction and Prognostic Significance Georg Goldrian 13. Can the Ifo Business Climate Indicator Improve Short-Term GDP Forecasts? Erich Langmantel 14. The Accuracy of Turning Point Predictions with the Ifo Business Climate Christian Hott, André Kunkel and Gernot Nerb 15. A Leading Indicator for Equipment Investment Joachim Gürtler 16. Ifo Survey on Employment Plans: Sectoral Evaluation Klaus Abberger 17. On the Methodology of Business Cycle Analysis Stefan Mittnik and Klaus Wohlrabe Index
