Description
Book SynopsisThe recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken.
Table of ContentsTable of Figures xi
Foreword xiii
Preface xv
Acknowledgements xxv
Section 1 ‘Why?’ 1
Chapter 1 Part 1 Why Change? Everyone Knows the Trouble I’ve Seen 3
Chapter 1 Part 2 Forecasting Disease, the Symptoms and the Remedy 17
Section 2 Principles 33
Chapter 2 Mastering Purpose – the Cassandra Paradox 35
Chapter 3 Mastering Time – Delay and Decision 57
Chapter 4 Mastering Models: Mapping the Future 87
Chapter 5 Mastering Measurement – Learning to Love Error 125
Chapter 6 Mastering Risks: How the Paranoid Survive 151
Section 3 ‘Praxis’ 179
Chapter 7 Mastering Process: The Mother of Good Fortune 183
Theme #1 Recipe for success: tips and traps 183
Theme #2 Coordination in a complex system: how different can we be? 198
Theme #3 ‘Whose job is it anyway?’ Roles and responsibilities 210
Section 4 Transformation 219
Chapter 8 Implementation: Beginnings and Endings 221
Chapter 9 Beyond Forecasting: The Biggest Barrier 233
Chapter 10 Beyond Budgeting: A New Management Model? 243
Chapter 11 Conclusion: Reconnection 257
Glossary 261
Appendix 1 – Design Principles: A Summary 267
Appendix 2 – Important Concepts in Systems and Cybernetics 275
References 289
Index 295
