Description
Book SynopsisGood decision making is crucial to good management and successful strategic planning. Sadly the decision making capabilities within organisations are often poor.
Trade Review"..this series has much to commend it..." (Modern Management, February 2002)
"…a fascinating and readable combination of psychological theory, paper and pencil thought problems and quotations from contemporary media…" (Productivity Digest, May 2002)
Table of ContentsSeries Foreword by Digby Jones ix
About the author xi
Preface xiii
Acknowledgements xv
1 Challenging Routines 1
Success formulas 3
Frames of reference 4
2 Decision Making in Management Teams 15
Groupthink 17
Alleviating groupthink 25
3 Overcoming Overconfidence 29
Overconfidence 30
Confirmation bias 32
Hindsight bias 33
Expert predictions 33
Alleviating overconfidence 39
4 How to Think with Scenarios 43
Scenario planning 44
Scenario construction: the extreme World method 45
Using scenarios in decision making 49
Scenario construction: the driving-forces method 55
The benefits of scenario planning 62
5 Dealing with Decision Dilemmas 73
Avoiding difficult decisions 74
Case study of a management team facing a decision dilemma 76
Dealing with psychological reactions to difficult decisions 80
6 Expectation and Decision Making 85
Decision trees 86
Blame culture and risk taking 93
7 How to Make Trade-offs 105
Simplifying choices can result in poor decisions 106
Making trade offs 113
8 Harnessing the Minds of Managers 121
Strategy development 122
A technique for the facilitation of strategic thinking 123
The role of the facilitator 124
Lessons from this book 126
Notes 131
Appendix A 137
Appendix B 138
Appendix C 139
Index 141
