Description
Book SynopsisDefending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes game of chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should a developing nation allocate its budget between building schools for towns without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant? Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods, or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives be saved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the funds for patient care? What should scientists tell the public when as occurred in L'Aquila, Italy and Mammoth Lakes, California there is a real but small risk of an upcoming earthquake or volcanic eruption? Recent hurricanes, earthquakes, and tsunamis show that society often handles such choices poorly. Sometimes nature surprises us, when an earthquake, hurricane, or flood is bigger or has greater effects than expected from detailed hazard assessments. In other cases, nature outsmarts us, doing great damage despite expensive mi
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“That Rumsfeld’s pithy and precise summary of the nature of uncertainty in policymaking is often cited as opaque and obscurant shows more than anything the need for a book like this.” (Survival Global Politics & Strategy, 1 February 2015)
Table of ContentsPreface xi
Acknowledgments xiv
Note on Further Reading and Sources xvi
About the Companion Website xviii
1 A Tricky, High-Stakes Game 1
1.1 Where We Are Today 1
1.2 What We Need to Do Better 6
1.3 How Can We Do Better? 14
Questions 17
Further Reading and Sources 19
References 20
2 When Nature Won 22
2.1 The Best-Laid Plans 22
2.2 Why Hazard Assessment Went Wrong 24
2.3 How Mitigation Fared 30
2.4 The Challenges Ahead 32
Questions 35
Further Reading and Sources 35
References 36
3 Nature Bats Last 38
3.1 Prediction Is Hard 38
3.2 Forecasts, Predictions, and Warnings 40
3.3 Earthquake Prediction 45
3.4 Chaos 50
Questions 53
Further Reading and Sources 54
References 55
4 Uncertainty and Probability 57
4.1 Basic Ideas 57
4.2 Compound Events 60
4.3 The Gaussian Distribution 64
4.4 Probability vs Statistics 68
4.5 Shallow and Deep Uncertainties 70
Questions 72
Further Reading and Sources 73
References 74
5 Communicating What We Know and What We Don’t 75
5.1 Recognizing and Admitting Uncertainties 75
5.2 Precision and Accuracy 81
5.3 Testing Forecasts 83
5.4 Communicating Forecasts 86
Questions 93
Further Reading and Sources 94
References 95
6 Human Disasters 97
6.1 Assessing Hazards 97
6.2 Vulnerability and Interconnections 99
6.3 The 2008 US Financial Disaster 101
6.4 Pseudodisasters and Groupthink 105
6.5 Disaster Chic 109
Questions 110
Further Reading and Sources 112
References 113
7 How Much Is Enough? 115
7.1 Rational Policy Making 115
7.2 Lessons from National Defense 119
7.3 Making Choices 122
7.4 Uncertainty and Risk Aversion 124
7.5 Present and Future Value 126
7.6 Valuing Lives 129
7.7 Implications for Natural Hazard Mitigation 131
Questions 132
Further Reading and Sources 134
References 135Contents ix
8 Guessing the Odds 136
8.1 Big Events Are Rare 136
8.2 Time-Independent Probability Models 140
8.3 Time-Dependent Probability Models 145
Questions 149
Further Reading and Sources 150
References 150
9 When’s the Next Earthquake? 151
9.1 A Very Tough Problem 151
9.2 Earthquake Frequency-Magnitude Relation 152
9.3 Earthquake Cycle Model 158
9.4 Computing Earthquake Probabilities 168
9.5 Shaky Probabilities 170
Questions 172
Further Reading and Sources 174
References 175
10 Assessing Hazards 176
10.1 Five Tough Questions 176
10.2 Uncertainties 177
10.3 How Is the Hazard Defi ned? 178
10.4 Where Will Large Earthquakes Occur? 182
10.5 When Will Large Earthquakes Occur? 187
10.6 How Big Will the Large Earthquakes Be? 190
10.7 How Much Shaking? 194
10.8 Dealing With the Uncertainties 196
10.9 Next Steps 200
Questions 201
Further Reading and Sources 201
References 202
11 Mitigating Hazards 204
11.1 Approaches 204
11.2 Accepting Risk 205
11.3 Transferring Risk 206
11.4 Avoiding Risk 207
11.5 Mitigating Risk 208
11.6 Combined Strategies 213
Questions 214
Further Reading and Sources 217
References 217
12 Choosing Mitigation Policies 220
12.1 Making Choices 220
12.2 House Fire Mitigation 223
12.3 Losses from Hazards 227
12.4 Optimal Natural Hazard Mitigation 228
12.5 Nonoptimal Natural Hazard Mitigation 232
12.6 Mitigation Given Uncertainties 233
12.7 Robust Policy Making 235
Questions 238
Further Reading and Sources 239
References 240
13 Doing Better 241
13.1 Final Thoughts 241
13.2 Community Decision Making 242
13.3 Improved Organization 244
Questions 248
Further Reading and Sources 249
References 249
Index 251
