Description

Book Synopsis
How to improve decision-making skills in realistic situations and do it in a reasonably nonmathematical fashion. Develops practical techniques for deciding upon the best strategies in a variety of situations. Provides methods for reducing complex problems to easily-drawn decision diagrams (trees), supported by real-world examples. Includes detailed cases that employ the methods described in the text. Each chapter contains illustrative examples and exercises.

Table of Contents
Some Fundamental Concepts.

Elementary Probability Theory.

Random Variables and Probability Distributions.

Theoretical Probability Distributions.

Decision Theory and Inference.

Some Elementary Bayesian Concepts.

Construction of Decision Diagrams.

Information and Revision of Probabilities.

Probability Assessment.

The Theory and Application of Utility.

Sensitivity Analysis.

Decision Making and the Normal Distribution.

Multicriteria Decisions.

Cases.

Appendices.

Answers to Selected Exercises.

Bibliography.

Index.

Managerial Decisions Under Uncertainty

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    A Hardback by Bruce F. Baird

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      Book details

      Publisher John Wiley & Sons Inc
      Published 24 January 1990
      ISBN-13 9780471858911
      978-0471858911
      ISBN-10 0471858919
      Also in:
      Mechanical engineering and materials Technology: general issues

      Description

      Book Synopsis
      How to improve decision-making skills in realistic situations and do it in a reasonably nonmathematical fashion. Develops practical techniques for deciding upon the best strategies in a variety of situations. Provides methods for reducing complex problems to easily-drawn decision diagrams (trees), supported by real-world examples. Includes detailed cases that employ the methods described in the text. Each chapter contains illustrative examples and exercises.

      Table of Contents
      Some Fundamental Concepts.

      Elementary Probability Theory.

      Random Variables and Probability Distributions.

      Theoretical Probability Distributions.

      Decision Theory and Inference.

      Some Elementary Bayesian Concepts.

      Construction of Decision Diagrams.

      Information and Revision of Probabilities.

      Probability Assessment.

      The Theory and Application of Utility.

      Sensitivity Analysis.

      Decision Making and the Normal Distribution.

      Multicriteria Decisions.

      Cases.

      Appendices.

      Answers to Selected Exercises.

      Bibliography.

      Index.

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