Search results for "tag:"Author R. Russell Rhinehart""
Wiley-Blackwell Nonlinear ModelBased Control
£103.50
John Wiley & Sons Inc Engineering Optimization
Book SynopsisAn Application-Oriented Introduction to Essential Optimization Concepts and Best Practices Optimization is an inherent human tendency that gained new life after the advent of calculus; now, as the world grows increasingly reliant on complex systems, optimization has become both more important and more challenging than ever before. Engineering Optimization provides a practically-focused introduction to modern engineering optimization best practices, covering fundamental analytical and numerical techniques throughout each stage of the optimization process. Although essential algorithms are explained in detail, the focus lies more in the human function: how to create an appropriate objective function, choose decision variables, identify and incorporate constraints, define convergence, and other critical issues that define the success or failure of an optimization project. Examples, exercises, and homework throughout reinforce the author's do, not studTable of ContentsContents Preface xix Acknowledgments xxvii Nomenclature xxix About the Companion Website xxxvii Section 1 Introductory Concepts 1 1 Optimization: Introduction and Concepts 3 1.1 Optimization and Terminology 3 1.2 Optimization Concepts and Definitions 4 1.3 Examples 6 1.4 Terminology Continued 10 1.4.1 Constraint 10 1.4.2 Feasible Solutions 10 1.4.3 Minimize or Maximize 11 1.4.4 Canonical Form of the Optimization Statement 11 1.5 Optimization Procedure 12 1.6 Issues That Shape Optimization Procedures 16 1.7 Opposing Trends 17 1.8 Uncertainty 20 1.9 Over- and Under-specification in Linear Equations 21 1.10 Over- and Under-specification in Optimization 22 1.11 Test Functions 23 1.12 Significant Dates in Optimization 23 1.13 Iterative Procedures 26 1.14 Takeaway 27 1.15 Exercises 27 2 Optimization Application Diversity and Complexity 33 2.1 Optimization 33 2.2 Nonlinearity 33 2.3 Min, Max, Min–Max, Max–Min, … 34 2.4 Integers and Other Discretization 35 2.5 Conditionals and Discontinuities: Cliffs Ridges/Valleys 36 2.6 Procedures, Not Equations 37 2.7 Static and Dynamic Models 38 2.8 Path Integrals 38 2.9 Economic Optimization and Other Nonadditive Cost Functions 38 2.10 Reliability 39 2.11 Regression 40 2.12 Deterministic and Stochastic 42 2.13 Experimental w.r.t. Modeled OF 43 2.14 Single and Multiple Optima 44 2.15 Saddle Points 45 2.16 Inflections 46 2.17 Continuum and Discontinuous DVs 47 2.18 Continuum and Discontinuous Models 47 2.19 Constraints and Penalty Functions 48 2.20 Ranks and Categorization: Discontinuous OFs 50 2.21 Underspecified OFs 51 2.22 Takeaway 51 2.23 Exercises 51 3 Validation: Knowing That the Answer Is Right 53 3.1 Introduction 53 3.2 Validation 53 3.3 Advice on Becoming Proficient 55 3.4 Takeaway 56 3.5 Exercises 57 Section 2 Univariate Search Techniques 59 4 Univariate (Single DV) Search Techniques 61 4.1 Univariate (Single DV) 61 4.2 Analytical Method of Optimization 62 4.2.1 Issues with the Analytical Approach 63 4.3 Numerical Iterative Procedures 64 4.3.1 Newton’s Methods 64 4.3.2 Successive Quadratic (A Surrogate Model or Approximating Model Method) 68 4.4 Direct Search Approaches 70 4.4.1 Bisection Method 70 4.4.2 Golden Section Method 72 4.4.3 Perspective at This Point 74 4.4.4 Heuristic Direct Search 74 4.4.5 Leapfrogging 76 4.4.6 LF for Stochastic Functions 79 4.5 Perspectives on Univariate Search Methods 82 4.6 Evaluating Optimizers 85 4.7 Summary of Techniques 85 4.7.1 Analytical Method 86 4.7.2 Newton’s (and Variants Like Secant) 86 4.7.3 Successive Quadratic 86 4.7.4 Golden Section Method 86 4.7.5 Heuristic Direct 87 4.7.6 Leapfrogging 87 4.8 Takeaway 87 4.9 Exercises 88 5 Path Analysis 93 5.1 Introduction 93 5.2 Path Examples 93 5.3 Perspective About Variables 96 5.4 Path Distance Integral 97 5.5 Accumulation along a Path 99 5.6 Slope along a Path 101 5.7 Parametric Path Notation 103 5.8 Takeaway 104 5.9 Exercises 104 6 Stopping and Convergence Criteria: 1-D Applications 107 6.1 Stopping versus Convergence Criteria 107 6.2 Determining Convergence 107 6.2.1 Threshold on the OF 108 6.2.2 Threshold on the Change in the OF 108 6.2.3 Threshold on the Change in the DV 108 6.2.4 Threshold on the Relative Change in the DV 109 6.2.5 Threshold on the Relative Change in the OF 109 6.2.6 Threshold on the Impact of the DV on the OF 109 6.2.7 Convergence Based on Uncertainty Caused by the Givens 109 6.2.8 Multiplayer Range 110 6.2.9 Steady-State Convergence 110 6.3 Combinations of Convergence Criteria 111 6.4 Choosing Convergence Threshold Values 112 6.5 Precision 112 6.6 Other Convergence Criteria 113 6.7 Stopping Criteria to End a Futile Search 113 6.7.1 N Iteration Threshold 114 6.7.2 Execution Error 114 6.7.3 Constraint Violation 114 6.8 Choices! 114 6.9 Takeaway 114 6.10 Exercises 115 Section 3 Multivariate Search Techniques 117 7 Multidimension Application Introduction and the Gradient 119 7.1 Introduction 119 7.2 Illustration of Surface and Terms 122 7.3 Some Surface Analysis 123 7.4 Parametric Notation 128 7.5 Extension to Higher Dimension 130 7.6 Takeaway 131 7.7 Exercises 131 8 Elementary Gradient-Based Optimizers: CSLS and ISD 135 8.1 Introduction 135 8.2 Cauchy’s Sequential Line Search 135 8.2.1 CSLS with Successive Quadratic 137 8.2.2 CSLS with Newton/Secant 138 8.2.3 CSLS with Golden Section 138 8.2.4 CSLS with Leapfrogging 138 8.2.5 CSLS with Heuristic Direct Search 139 8.2.6 CSLS Commentary 139 8.2.7 CSLS Pseudocode 140 8.2.8 VBA Code for a 2-DV Application 141 8.3 Incremental Steepest Descent 144 8.3.1 Pseudocode for the ISD Method 144 8.3.2 Enhanced ISD 145 8.3.3 ISD Code 148 8.4 Takeaway 149 8.5 Exercises 149 9 Second-Order Model-Based Optimizers: SQ and NR 155 9.1 Introduction 155 9.2 Successive Quadratic 155 9.2.1 Multivariable SQ 156 9.2.2 SQ Pseudocode 159 9.3 Newton–Raphson 159 9.3.1 NR Pseudocode 162 9.3.2 Attenuate NR 163 9.3.3 Quasi-Newton 166 9.4 Perspective on CSLS, ISD, SQ, and NR 168 9.5 Choosing Step Size for Numerical Estimate of Derivatives 169 9.6 Takeaway 170 9.7 Exercises 170 10 Gradient-Based Optimizer Solutions: LM, RLM, CG, BFGS, RG, and GRG 173 10.1 Introduction 173 10.2 Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) 173 10.2.1 LM VBA Code for a 2-DV Case 175 10.2.2 Modified LM (RLM) 176 10.2.3 RLM Pseudocode 177 10.2.4 RLM VBA Code for a 2-DV Case 178 10.3 Scaled Variables 180 10.4 Conjugate Gradient (CG) 182 10.5 Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS) 183 10.6 Generalized Reduced Gradient (GRG) 184 10.7 Takeaway 186 10.8 Exercises 186 11 Direct Search Techniques 187 11.1 Introduction 187 11.2 Cyclic Heuristic Direct (CHD) Search 188 11.2.1 CHD Pseudocode 188 11.2.2 CHD VBA Code 189 11.3 Hooke–Jeeves (HJ) 192 11.3.1 HJ Code in VBA 195 11.4 Compare and Contrast CHD and HJ Features: A Summary 197 11.5 Nelder–Mead (NM) Simplex: Spendley, Hext, and Himsworth 199 11.6 Multiplayer Direct Search Algorithms 200 11.7 Leapfrogging 201 11.7.1 Convergence Criteria 208 11.7.2 Stochastic Surfaces 209 11.7.3 Summary 209 11.8 Particle Swarm Optimization 209 11.8.1 Individual Particle Behavior 210 11.8.2 Particle Swarm 213 11.8.3 PSO Equation Analysis 215 11.9 Complex Method (CM) 216 11.10 A Brief Comparison 217 11.11 Takeaway 218 11.12 Exercises 219 12 Linear Programming 223 12.1 Introduction 223 12.2 Visual Representation and Concepts 225 12.3 Basic LP Procedure 228 12.4 Canonical LP Statement 228 12.5 LP Algorithm 229 12.6 Simplex Tableau 230 12.7 Takeaway 231 12.8 Exercises 231 13 Dynamic Programming 233 13.1 Introduction 233 13.2 Conditions 236 13.3 DP Concept 237 13.4 Some Calculation Tips 240 13.5 Takeaway 241 13.6 Exercises 241 14 Genetic Algorithms and Evolutionary Computation 243 14.1 Introduction 243 14.2 GA Procedures 243 14.3 Fitness of Selection 245 14.4 Takeaway 250 14.5 Exercises 250 15 Intuitive Optimization 253 15.1 Introduction 253 15.2 Levels 254 15.3 Takeaway 254 15.4 Exercises 254 16 Surface Analysis II 257 16.1 Introduction 257 16.2 Maximize Is Equivalent to Minimize the Negative 257 16.3 Scaling by a Positive Number Does Not Change DV∗ 258 16.4 Scaled and Translated OFs Do Not Change DV∗ 258 16.5 Monotonic Function Transformation Does Not Change DV∗ 258 16.6 Impact on Search Path or NOFE 261 16.7 Inequality Constraints 263 16.8 Transforming DVs 263 16.9 Takeaway 263 16.10 Exercises 263 17 Convergence Criteria 2: N-D Applications 265 17.1 Introduction 265 17.2 Defining an Iteration 265 17.3 Criteria for Single TS Deterministic Procedures 266 17.4 Criteria for Multiplayer Deterministic Procedures 267 17.5 Stochastic Applications 268 17.7 Takeaway 269 17.8 Exercises 269 18 Enhancements to Optimizers 271 18.1 Introduction 271 18.2 Criteria for Replicate Trials 271 18.3 Quasi-Newton 274 18.4 Coarse–Fine Sequence 275 18.5 Number of Players 275 18.6 Search Range Adjustment 276 18.7 Adjustment of Optimizer Coefficient Values or Options in Process 276 18.8 Initialization Range 277 18.9 OF and DV Transformations 277 18.10 Takeaway 278 18.11 Exercises 278 Section 4 Developing Your Application Statements 279 19 Scaled Variables and Dimensional Consistency 281 19.1 Introduction 281 19.2 A Scaled Variable Approach 283 19.3 Sampling of Issues with Primitive Variables 283 19.4 Linear Scaling Options 285 19.5 Nonlinear Scaling 286 19.6 Takeaway 287 19.7 Exercises 287 20 Economic Optimization 289 20.1 Introduction 289 20.2 Annual Cash Flow 290 20.3 Including Risk as an Annual Expense 291 20.4 Capital 293 20.5 Combining Capital and Nominal Annual Cash Flow 293 20.6 Combining Time Value and Schedule of Capital and Annual Cash Flow 296 20.7 Present Value 297 20.8 Including Uncertainty 298 20.8.1 Uncertainty Models 301 20.8.2 Methods to Include Uncertainty in an Optimization 303 20.9 Takeaway 304 20.10 Exercises 304 21 Multiple OF and Constraint Applications 305 21.1 Introduction 305 21.2 Solution 1: Additive Combinations of the Functions 306 21.2.1 Solution 1a: Classic Weighting Factors 307 21.2.2 Solution 1b: Equal Concern Weighting 307 21.2.3 Solution 1c: Nonlinear Weighting 309 21.3 Solution 2: Nonadditive OF Combinations 311 21.4 Solution 3: Pareto Optimal 311 21.5 Takeaway 316 21.6 Exercises 316 22 Constraints 319 22.1 Introduction 319 22.2 Equality Constraints 320 22.2.1 Explicit Equality Constraints 320 22.2.2 Implicit Equality Constraints 321 22.3 Inequality Constraints 321 22.3.1 Penalty Function: Discontinuous 323 22.3.2 Penalty Function: Soft Constraint 323 22.3.3 Inequality Constraints: Slack and Surplus Variables 325 22.4 Constraints: Pass/Fail Categories 329 22.5 Hard Constraints Can Block Progress 330 22.6 Advice 331 22.7 Constraint-Equivalent Features 332 22.8 Takeaway 332 22.9 Exercises 332 23 Multiple Optima 335 23.1 Introduction 335 23.2 Solution: Multiple Starts 337 23.2.1 A Priori Method 340 23.2.2 A Posteriori Method 342 23.2.3 Snyman and Fatti Criterion A Posteriori Method 345 23.3 Other Options 348 23.4 Takeaway 349 23.5 Exercises 350 24 Stochastic Objective Functions 353 24.1 Introduction 353 24.2 Method Summary for Optimizing Stochastic Functions 356 24.2.1 Step 1: Replicate the Apparent Best Player 356 24.2.2 Step 2: Steady-State Detection 357 24.3 What Value to Report? 358 24.4 Application Examples 359 24.4.1 GMC Control of Hot and Cold Mixing 359 24.4.2 MBC of Hot and Cold Mixing 359 24.4.3 Batch Reaction Management 359 24.4.4 Reservoir and Stochastic Boot Print 361 24.4.5 Optimization Results 362 24.5 Takeaway 365 24.6 Exercises 365 25 Effects of Uncertainty 367 25.1 Introduction 367 25.2 Sources of Error and Uncertainty 368 25.3 Significant Digits 370 25.4 Estimating Uncertainty on Values 371 25.5 Propagating Uncertainty on DV Values 372 25.5.1 Analytical Method 373 25.5.2 Numerical Method 375 25.6 Implicit Relations 378 25.7 Estimating Uncertainty in DV∗ and OF∗ 378 25.8 Takeaway 379 25.9 Exercises 379 26 Optimization of Probable Outcomes and Distribution Characteristics 381 26.1 Introduction 381 26.2 The Concept of Modeling Uncertainty 385 26.3 Stochastic Approach 387 26.4 Takeaway 389 26.5 Exercises 389 27 Discrete and Integer Variables 391 27.1 Introduction 391 27.2 Optimization Solutions 394 27.2.1 Exhaustive Search 394 27.2.2 Branch and Bound 394 27.2.3 Cyclic Heuristic 394 27.2.4 Leapfrogging or Other Multiplayer Search 395 27.3 Convergence 395 27.4 Takeaway 395 27.5 Exercises 395 28 Class Variables 397 28.1 Introduction 397 28.2 The Random Keys Method: Sequence 398 28.3 The Random Keys Method: Dichotomous Variables 400 28.4 Comments 401 28.5 Takeaway 401 28.6 Exercises 401 29 Regression 403 29.1 Introduction 403 29.2 Perspective 404 29.3 Least Squares Regression: Traditional View on Linear Model Parameters 404 29.4 Models Nonlinear in DV 405 29.4.1 Models with a Delay 407 29.5 Maximum Likelihood 408 29.5.1 Akaho’s Method 411 29.6 Convergence Criterion 416 29.7 Model Order or Complexity 421 29.8 Bootstrapping to Reveal Model Uncertainty 425 29.8.1 Interpretation of Bootstrapping Analysis 428 29.8.2 Appropriating Bootstrapping 430 29.9 Perspective 431 29.10 Takeaway 431 29.11 Exercises 432 Section 5 Perspective on Many Topics 441 30 Perspective 443 30.1 Introduction 443 30.2 Classifications 443 30.3 Elements Associated with Optimization 445 30.4 Root Finding Is Not Optimization 446 30.5 Desired Engineering Attributes 446 30.6 Overview of Optimizers and Attributes 447 30.6.1 Gradient Based: Cauchy Sequential Line Search, Incremental Steepest Descent, GRG, Etc. 447 30.6.2 Local Surface Characterization Based: Newton–Raphson, Levenberg–Marquardt, Successive Quadratic, RLM, Quasi-Newton, Etc. 448 30.6.3 Direct Search with Single Trial Solution: Cyclic Heuristic, Hooke–Jeeves, and Nelder–Mead 448 30.6.4 Multiplayer Direct Search Optimizers: Leapfrogging, Particle Swarm, and Genetic Algorithms 448 30.7 Choices 448 30.8 Variable Classifications 449 30.8.1 Nominal 449 30.8.2 Ordinal 450 30.8.3 Cardinal 450 30.9 Constraints 451 30.10 Takeaway 453 30.11 Exercises 453 31 Response Surface Aberrations 459 31.1 Introduction 459 31.2 Cliffs (Vertical Walls) 459 31.3 Sharp Valleys (or Ridges) 459 31.4 Striations 463 31.5 Level Spots (Functions 1, 27, 73, 84) 463 31.6 Hard-to-Find Optimum 466 31.7 Infeasible Calculations 468 31.8 Uniform Minimum 468 31.9 Noise: Stochastic Response 469 31.10 Multiple Optima 471 31.11 Takeaway 473 31.12 Exercises 473 32 Identifying the Models, OF, DV, Convergence Criteria, and Constraints 475 32.1 Introduction 475 32.2 Evaluate the Results 476 32.3 Takeaway 482 32.4 Exercises 482 33 Evaluating Optimizers 489 33.1 Introduction 489 33.2 Challenges to Optimizers 490 33.3 Stakeholders 490 33.4 Metrics of Optimizer Performance 490 33.5 Designing an Experimental Test 492 33.6 Takeaway 495 33.7 Exercises 496 34 Troubleshooting Optimizers 499 34.1 Introduction 499 34.2 DV Values Do Not Change 499 34.3 Multiple DV∗ Values for the Same OF∗ Value 499 34.4 EXE Error 500 34.5 Extreme Values 500 34.6 DV∗ Is Dependent on Convergence Threshold 500 34.7 OF∗ Is Irreproducible 501 34.8 Concern over Results 501 34.9 CDF Features 501 34.10 Parameter Correlation 502 34.11 Multiple Equivalent Solutions 504 34.12 Takeaway 504 34.13 Exercises 504 Section 6 Analysis of Leapfrogging Optimization 505 35 Analysis of Leapfrogging 507 35.1 Introduction 507 35.2 Balance in an Optimizer 508 35.3 Number of Initializations to be Confident That the Best Will Draw All Others to the Global Optimum 510 35.3.1 Methodology 511 35.3.2 Experimental 512 35.3.3 Results 513 35.4 Leap-To Window Amplification Analysis 515 35.5 Analysis of α and M to Prevent Convergence on the Side of a Hill 519 35.6 Analysis of α and M to Minimize NOFE 521 35.7 Probability Distribution of Leap-Overs 522 35.7.1 Data 526 35.8 Takeaway 527 35.9 Exercises 528 Section 7 Case Studies 529 36 Case Study 1: Economic Optimization of a Pipe System 531 36.1 Process and Analysis 531 36.1.1 Deterministic Continuum Model 531 36.1.2 Deterministic Discontinuous Model 534 36.1.3 Stochastic Discontinuous Model 535 36.2 Exercises 536 37 Case Study 2: Queuing Study 539 37.1 The Process and Analysis 539 37.2 Exercises 541 38 Case Study 3: Retirement Study 543 38.1 The Process and Analysis 543 38.2 Exercises 550 39 Case Study 4: A Goddard Rocket Study 551 39.1 The Process and Analysis 551 39.2 Pre-Assignment Note 554 39.3 Exercises 555 40 Case Study 5: Reservoir 557 40.1 The Process and Analysis 557 40.2 Exercises 559 41 Case Study 6: Area Coverage 561 41.1 Description and Analysis 561 41.2 Exercises 562 42 Case Study 7: Approximating Series Solution to an ODE 565 42.1 Concepts and Analysis 565 42.2 Exercises 568 43 Case Study 8: Horizontal Tank Vapor–Liquid Separator 571 43.1 Description and Analysis 571 43.2 Exercises 576 44 Case Study 9: In Vitro Fertilization 579 44.1 Description and Analysis 579 44.2 Exercises 583 45 Case Study 10: Data Reconciliation 585 45.1 Description and Analysis 585 45.2 Exercises 588 Section 8 Appendices 591 Appendix A Mathematical Concepts and Procedures 593 Appendix B Root Finding 605 Appendix C Gaussian Elimination 611 Appendix D Steady-State Identification in Noisy Signals 621 Appendix E Optimization Challenge Problems (2-D and Single OF) 635 Appendix F Brief on VBA Programming: Excel in Office 2013 709 Section 9 References and Index 717 References and Additional Resources 719 Index 723
£100.65
John Wiley & Sons Inc Nonlinear Regression Modeling for Engineering
Book SynopsisSince mathematical models express our understanding of how nature behaves, we use them to validate our understanding of the fundamentals about systems (which could be processes, equipment, procedures, devices, or products). Also, when validated, the model is useful for engineering applications related to diagnosis, design, and optimization.Table of ContentsSeries Preface xiii Preface xv Acknowledgments xxiii Nomenclature xxv Symbols xxxvii Part I INTRODUCTION 1 Introductory Concepts 3 1.1 Illustrative Example – Traditional Linear Least-Squares Regression 3 1.2 How Models Are Used 7 1.3 Nonlinear Regression 7 1.4 Variable Types 8 1.5 Simulation 12 1.6 Issues 13 1.7 Takeaway 15 Exercises 15 2 Model Types 16 2.1 Model Terminology 16 2.2 A Classification of Mathematical Model Types 17 2.3 Steady-State and Dynamic Models 21 2.3.1 Steady-State Models 22 2.3.2 Dynamic Models (Time-Dependent, Transient) 24 2.4 Pseudo-First Principles – Appropriated First Principles 26 2.5 Pseudo-First Principles – Pseudo-Components 28 2.6 Empirical Models with Theoretical Grounding 28 2.6.1 Empirical Steady State 28 2.6.2 Empirical Time-Dependent 30 2.7 Empirical Models with No Theoretical Grounding 31 2.8 Partitioned Models 31 2.9 Empirical or Phenomenological? 32 2.10 Ensemble Models 32 2.11 Simulators 33 2.12 Stochastic and Probabilistic Models 33 2.13 Linearity 34 2.14 Discrete or Continuous 36 2.15 Constraints 36 2.16 Model Design (Architecture, Functionality, Structure) 37 2.17 Takeaway 37 Exercises 37 Part II PREPARATION FOR UNDERLYING SKILLS 3 Propagation of Uncertainty 43 3.1 Introduction 43 3.2 Sources of Error and Uncertainty 44 3.2.1 Estimation 45 3.2.2 Discrimination 45 3.2.3 Calibration Drift 45 3.2.4 Accuracy 45 3.2.5 Technique 46 3.2.6 Constants and Data 46 3.2.7 Noise 46 3.2.8 Model and Equations 46 3.2.9 Humans 47 3.3 Significant Digits 47 3.4 Rounding Off 48 3.5 Estimating Uncertainty on Values 49 3.5.1 Caution 50 3.6 Propagation of Uncertainty – Overview – Two Types, Two Ways Each 51 3.6.1 Maximum Uncertainty 51 3.6.2 Probable Uncertainty 56 3.6.3 Generality 58 3.7 Which to Report? Maximum or Probable Uncertainty 59 3.8 Bootstrapping 59 3.9 Bias and Precision 61 3.10 Takeaway 65 Exercises 66 4 Essential Probability and Statistics 67 4.1 Variation and Its Role in Topics 67 4.2 Histogram and Its PDF and CDF Views 67 4.3 Constructing a Data-Based View of PDF and CDF 70 4.4 Parameters that Characterize the Distribution 71 4.5 Some Representative Distributions 72 4.5.1 Gaussian Distribution 72 4.5.2 Log-Normal Distribution 72 4.5.3 Logistic Distribution 74 4.5.4 Exponential Distribution 74 4.5.5 Binomial Distribution 75 4.6 Confidence Interval 76 4.7 Central Limit Theorem 77 4.8 Hypothesis and Testing 78 4.9 Type I and Type II Errors, Alpha and Beta 80 4.10 Essential Statistics for This Text 82 4.10.1 t-Test for Bias 83 4.10.2 Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test for Bias 83 4.10.3 r-lag-1 Autocorrelation Test 84 4.10.4 Runs Test 87 4.10.5 Test for Steady State in a Noisy Signal 87 4.10.6 Chi-Square Contingency Test 89 4.10.7 Kolmogorov–Smirnov Distribution Test 89 4.10.8 Test for Proportion 90 4.10.9 F-Test for Equal Variance 90 4.11 Takeaway 91 Exercises 91 5 Simulation 93 5.1 Introduction 93 5.2 Three Sources of Deviation: Measurement, Inputs, Coefficients 93 5.3 Two Types of Perturbations: Noise (Independent) and Drifts (Persistence) 95 5.4 Two Types of Influence: Additive and Scaled with Level 98 5.5 Using the Inverse CDF to Generate n and u from UID(0, 1) 99 5.6 Takeaway 100 Exercises 100 6 Steady and Transient State Detection 101 6.1 Introduction 101 6.1.1 General Applications 101 6.1.2 Concepts and Issues in Detecting Steady State 104 6.1.3 Approaches and Issues to SSID and TSID 104 6.2 Method 106 6.2.1 Conceptual Model 106 6.2.2 Equations 107 6.2.3 Coefficient, Threshold, and Sample Frequency Values 108 6.2.4 Noiseless Data 111 6.3 Applications 112 6.3.1 Applications of the R-Statistic Approach for Process Monitoring 112 6.3.2 Applications of the R-Statistic Approach for Determining Regression Convergence 112 6.4 Takeaway 114 Exercises 114 Part III REGRESSION, VALIDATION, DESIGN 7 Regression Target – Objective Function 119 7.1 Introduction 119 7.2 Experimental and Measurement Uncertainty – Static and Continuous Valued 119 7.3 Likelihood 122 7.4 Maximum Likelihood 124 7.5 Estimating σx and σy Values 127 7.6 Vertical SSD – A Limiting Consideration of Variability Only in the Response Measurement 127 7.7 r-Square as a Measure of Fit 128 7.8 Normal, Total, or Perpendicular SSD 130 7.9 Akaho’s Method 132 7.10 Using a Model Inverse for Regression 134 7.11 Choosing the Dependent Variable 135 7.12 Model Prediction with Dynamic Models 136 7.13 Model Prediction with Classification Models 137 7.14 Model Prediction with Rank Models 138 7.15 Probabilistic Models 139 7.16 Stochastic Models 139 7.17 Takeaway 139 Exercises 140 8 Constraints 141 8.1 Introduction 141 8.2 Constraint Types 141 8.3 Expressing Hard Constraints in the Optimization Statement 142 8.4 Expressing Soft Constraints in the Optimization Statement 143 8.5 Equality Constraints 147 8.6 Takeaway 148 Exercises 148 9 The Distortion of Linearizing Transforms 149 9.1 Linearizing Coefficient Expression in Nonlinear Functions 149 9.2 The Associated Distortion 151 9.3 Sequential Coefficient Evaluation 154 9.4 Takeaway 155 Exercises 155 10 Optimization Algorithms 157 10.1 Introduction 157 10.2 Optimization Concepts 157 10.3 Gradient-Based Optimization 159 10.3.1 Numerical Derivative Evaluation 159 10.3.2 Steepest Descent – The Gradient 161 10.3.3 Cauchy’s Method 162 10.3.4 Incremental Steepest Descent (ISD) 163 10.3.5 Newton–Raphson (NR) 163 10.3.6 Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) 165 10.3.7 Modified LM 166 10.3.8 Generalized Reduced Gradient (GRG) 167 10.3.9 Work Assessment 167 10.3.10 Successive Quadratic (SQ) 167 10.3.11 Perspective 168 10.4 Direct Search Optimizers 168 10.4.1 Cyclic Heuristic Direct Search 169 10.4.2 Multiplayer Direct Search Algorithms 170 10.4.3 Leapfrogging 171 10.5 Takeaway 173 11 Multiple Optima 176 11.1 Introduction 176 11.2 Quantifying the Probability of Finding the Global Best 178 11.3 Approaches to Find the Global Optimum 179 11.4 Best-of-N Rule for Regression Starts 180 11.5 Interpreting the CDF 182 11.6 Takeaway 184 12 Regression Convergence Criteria 185 12.1 Introduction 185 12.2 Convergence versus Stopping 185 12.3 Traditional Criteria for Claiming Convergence 186 12.4 Combining DV Influence on OF 188 12.5 Use Relative Impact as Convergence Criterion 189 12.6 Steady-State Convergence Criterion 190 12.7 Neural Network Validation 197 12.8 Takeaway 198 Exercises 198 13 Model Design – Desired and Undesired Model Characteristics and Effects 199 13.1 Introduction 199 13.2 Redundant Coefficients 199 13.3 Coefficient Correlation 201 13.4 Asymptotic and Uncertainty Effects When Model is Inverted 203 13.5 Irrelevant Coefficients 205 13.6 Poles and Sign Flips w.r.t. the DV 206 13.7 Too Many Adjustable Coefficients or Too Many Regressors 206 13.8 Irrelevant Model Coefficients 215 13.8.1 Standard Error of the Estimate 216 13.8.2 Backward Elimination 216 13.8.3 Logical Tests 216 13.8.4 Propagation of Uncertainty 216 13.8.5 Bootstrapping 217 13.9 Scale-Up or Scale-Down Transition to New Phenomena 217 13.10 Takeaway 218 Exercises 218 14 Data Pre- and Post-processing 220 14.1 Introduction 220 14.2 Pre-processing Techniques 221 14.2.1 Steady- and Transient-State Selection 221 14.2.2 Internal Consistency 221 14.2.3 Truncation 222 14.2.4 Averaging and Voting 222 14.2.5 Data Reconciliation 223 14.2.6 Real-Time Noise Filtering for Noise Reduction (MA, FoF, STF) 224 14.2.7 Real-Time Noise filtering for Outlier Removal (Median Filter) 227 14.2.8 Real-Time Noise Filtering, Statistical Process Control 228 14.2.9 Imputation of Input Data 230 14.3 Post-processing 231 14.3.1 Outliers and Rejection Criterion 231 14.3.2 Bimodal Residual Distributions 233 14.3.3 Imputation of Response Data 235 14.4 Takeaway 235 Exercises 235 15 Incremental Model Adjustment 237 15.1 Introduction 237 15.2 Choosing the Adjustable Coefficient in Phenomenological Models 238 15.3 Simple Approach 238 15.4 An Alternate Approach 240 15.5 Other Approaches 241 15.6 Takeaway 241 Exercises 241 16 Model and Experimental Validation 242 16.1 Introduction 242 16.1.1 Concepts 242 16.1.2 Deterministic Models 244 16.1.3 Stochastic Models 246 16.1.4 Reality! 249 16.2 Logic-Based Validation Criteria 250 16.3 Data-Based Validation Criteria and Statistical Tests 251 16.3.1 Continuous-Valued, Deterministic, Steady State, or End-of-Batch 251 16.3.2 Continuous-Valued, Deterministic, Transient 263 16.3.3 Class/Discrete/Rank-Valued, Deterministic, Batch, or Steady State 264 16.3.4 Continuous-Valued, Stochastic, Batch, or Steady State 265 16.3.5 Test for Normally Distributed Residuals 266 16.3.6 Experimental Procedure Validation 266 16.4 Model Discrimination 267 16.4.1 Mechanistic Models 267 16.4.2 Purely Empirical Models 268 16.5 Procedure Summary 268 16.6 Alternate Validation Approaches 269 16.7 Takeaway 270 Exercises 270 17 Model Prediction Uncertainty 272 17.1 Introduction 272 17.2 Bootstrapping 273 17.3 Takeaway 276 18 Design of Experiments for Model Development and Validation 277 18.1 Concept – Plan and Data 277 18.2 Sufficiently Small Experimental Uncertainty – Methodology 277 18.3 Screening Designs – A Good Plan for an Alternate Purpose 281 18.4 Experimental Design – A Plan for Validation and Discrimination 282 18.4.1 Continually Redesign 282 18.4.2 Experimental Plan 283 18.5 EHS&LP 286 18.6 Visual Examples of Undesired Designs 287 18.7 Example for an Experimental Plan 289 18.8 Takeaway 291 Exercises 292 19 Utility versus Perfection 293 19.1 Competing and Conflicting Measures of Excellence 293 19.2 Attributes for Model Utility Evaluation 294 19.3 Takeaway 295 Exercises 296 20 Troubleshooting 297 20.1 Introduction 297 20.2 Bimodal and Multimodal Residuals 297 20.3 Trends in the Residuals 298 20.4 Parameter Correlation 298 20.5 Convergence Criterion – Too Tight, Too Loose 299 20.6 Overfitting (Memorization) 300 20.7 Solution Procedure Encounters Execution Errors 300 20.8 Not a Sharp CDF (OF) 300 20.9 Outliers 301 20.10 Average Residual Not Zero 302 20.11 Irrelevant Model Coefficients 302 20.12 Data Work-Up after the Trials 302 20.13 Too Many rs! 303 20.14 Propagation of Uncertainty Does Not Match Residuals 303 20.15 Multiple Optima 304 20.16 Very Slow Progress 304 20.17 All Residuals are Zero 304 20.18 Takeaway 305 Exercises 305 Part IV CASE STUDIES AND DATA 21 Case Studies 309 21.1 Valve Characterization 309 21.2 CO2 Orifice Calibration 311 21.3 Enrollment Trend 312 21.4 Algae Response to Sunlight Intensity 314 21.5 Batch Reaction Kinetics 316 Appendix A: VBA Primer: Brief on VBA Programming – Excel in Office 2013 319 Appendix B: Leapfrogging Optimizer Code for Steady-State Models 328 Appendix C: Bootstrapping with Static Model 341 References and Further Reading 350 Index 355
£999.99