Description
Book SynopsisWhy do so many gamblers risk it all when they know the odds of winning are against them? Why do they believe dice are 'hot' in a winning streak? Why do we expect heads on a coin toss after several flips have turned up tails? This book takes a look at the mathematics, history, and psychology of gambling to reveal various misconceptions about luck.
Trade Review"From the dice-playing of Neolithic peoples to modern lotteries and casino capitalism, he tracks the history of placing bets. He explains both the mathematics of chance and the psychological and emotional factors that entice some people to risk it all to win that improbable jackpot."--Joanne Baker, Nature "In What's Luck Got to Do With It?, mathematician Joseph Mazur explores these misconceptions, taking the reader on an entertaining and accessible tour of the history of gambling, the way mathematicians quantify luck and the psychology that keeps gamblers returning to the table. A book worth taking a chance on."--New Scientist "Doubtless aimed at the interested gambler, the frequent cultural references, anecdotes and intervention of psychology nevertheless make the book appealing reading."--Times Higher Education "Both an analysis of the idea of luck, the gambling impulse, and a history of it, stretching back to Neolithic times, the Renaissance (Francis Drake and Ben Johnson often played hazard--an early form of dice) up to the age of one-arm bandits."--Steven Carroll, The Age "Because Mazur's not judgmental about luck and gambling, but is analytical, the book is a winner. It's not just a mathematician telling us that we'll never hit a million-dollar jackpot--it's a mathematician looking at why we continue to hope to hit that jackpot. This book should be required reading for anyone in the casino business, and anyone who spends more than a fraction of their disposable income on gambling should find it informative, if nothing else. It's a reasoned, but also passionate, search for the meaning of luck that may change the way you look at a pair of dice--or your mortgage."--dieiscast.com "What's Luck Got to Do with It? is an entertaining and informative history of gambling beginning with the Ice Age... Anyone who has an interest in probability will enjoy Mazur's ideas and insights."--Mathematics Teacher "Readers will find many an unexpected treat in Mazur's exploration of luck, or, as Mazur might say, the likelihood of long runs of desired outcomes within the purview of the law of large numbers."--Andrew James Simpson, Mathematical Reviews Clippings "Mazur's book is appealing to virtually anyone with an interest in the human psyche. It should certainly be given out to anyone arriving for work on their first day on Wall Street. Perhaps it would help to avoid a few more disasters."--Sam Marsden, Jackpot Gaming Limited
Table of ContentsIntroduction xi Part I: The History Chapter 1. Pits, Pebbles, and Bones Rolling to Discover Fate 3 Chapter 2. The Professionals Luck Becomes Measurable 19 Chapter 3. From Coffeehouses to Casinos Gaming Becomes Big Business 37 Chapter 4. There's No Stopping It Now From Bans to Bookies 46 Chapter 5. Betting with Trillions The 2008 World Economic Calamity 58 Part II : The Mathematics Chapter 6. Who's Got a Royal Flush? One Deal as Likely as Another 75 Chapter 7. The Behavior of a Coin Making Predictions with Probability 83 Chapter 8. Someone Has to Win Betting against Expectation 101 Chapter 9. A Truly Astonishing Result The Weak Law of Large Numbers 118 Chapter 10. The Skill/Luck Spectrum Even Great Talent Needs Some Good Fortune 131 Part III : The Analysis Chapter 11. Let It Ride The House Money Effect 157 Chapter 12. Knowing When to Quit Psychomanaging Risk 168 Chapter 13. The Theories What Makes a Gambler? 182 Chapter 14. Hot Hands Expecting Long Runs of the Same Outcome 202 Chapter 15. Luck The Dicey Illusion 209 Acknowledgments 217 Appendix A. Descriptions of the Games Used in This Book 219 Appendix B. Glossary of Gambling Terms Used in This Book 224 Appendix C. The Weak Law of Large Numbers 227 Appendix D. Glossary of Mathematical Definitions 229 Appendix E. Callouts 236 Notes 249 Further Reading 265 Index 267
