Description
Book SynopsisWar With Iran: Political, Military and Economic Consequences provides readers both a history of Iran's relationship with the West and an expert's estimation of what the political, human and financial costs of full-scale war with Iran might be. Authors Geoffrey Kemp and John Allen Gay of the Center for the National Interest utilize their years studying and informing America's foreign policy in the Middle East to bring to life the possible outcomes of an American military intervention in Iran. Such a decision would not only have catastrophic consequences on the Persian Gulf, but would also endanger the whole world's delicate economy by heightening instability in a fragile but resource-rich region. Written for anyone with an interest in the future of American foreign policy, War With Iran explores what every player has at stake in the current crisis by analyzing every tension adjacent to it; from America's staunch support of Israel to Iran's own dogged pursuit of advanced nuclear capabili
Table of ContentsAcknowledgements Prologue Introduction Iran’s Nuclear Program Chapter 1: Positions of Primary Actors Iran Key Opponents to Iran’s Nuclear Program The United States Direct Relations Israel Global Opponents Chapter 2: Choosing to Attack Context for a Strike Surprise Attack War Escalates Response to Nuclear Provocation Merits and Risks of a Strike Expert Voices Political Voices Chapter 3: How an Attack Might Work Targeting An Israeli Strike The Central Route: Overflying Iraq Logistics of an Israeli Strike An American Strike Bunker Busting Iranian Air Defenses Follow-On Strikes Impact on Iran’s Nuclear Program Alternative Means of Destruction Sabotage Commando Raid Chapter 4: Iran’s Retaliation Lebanese Hezbollah Israeli Natural Gas Sites Iraq and Afghanistan General Terrorism The Strait of Hormuz Insurgency in the Gulf The Missile Threat Other Iranian Threats to Oil Chapter 5: Evolving Crisis, Challenging Exit Mass Retaliation Nonretaliation Middle Paths American Response and Cyclical Violence Chapter 6: Regional Oil Gulf Oil: Iran’s Role Oil Prices and Iran’s Economy Chapter 7: Oil and War Recent History Impact of a Military Strike on Iran Impact of an Attack on Iranian Oil Facilities Iran’s Options Against Regional Oil Action in the Strait of Hormuz Attacking Arab Oil Facilities Mobilizing the Saudi Shia Population Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction Iraq and Azerbaijan Chapter 8: Preparing for Oil Disruptions Mitigation Rerouting Oil Flows Excess Capacity Assurance Preparation Expanding Reserves Pipeline Preparation Removal of Bottlenecks Preparing to Reduce Demand Readying the Refinery Network “Pre-Assuring” Investors Chapter 9: Economic Consequences Wider Economic Factors Growth Patterns and Oil Markets Oil Price Increases and Supply Interruption Oil Price Increases and Economic Recovery Threats to the Dollar Alternatives to the Dollar? However Impacts in the Middle East Regional Conflicts American Trade The Impact of the Sanctions Conclusions Chapter 10: Conclusions: The Challenge of Getting Out, the Costs of Staying Home Exit Strategy for War with Iran Internal Political Impacts The Cost of Inaction Conclusions Appendices Bibliography
