Description
Book SynopsisChapter 2, ''Pay no attention to the model behind the curtain'', Chapter 4, ''Mind the hubris: Complexity can misfire'', and Chapter 8, '' Sensitivity auditing: A practical checklist for auditing decision-relevant models'' are published open access and free to read or download from Oxford AcademicThe widespread use of mathematical models for policy-making and its social and political impact are at the core of this book. While the discussion of mathematical modelling generally centres around technical features, use, and type of model, the literature is increasingly acknowledging that the social nature of modelling, its biases and responsibilities, are equally worth investigating. This book tackles these emerging questions by adopting a multidisciplinary approach to investigate how current modelling practices address contemporary challenges, and fills a gap in the field, which has historically focused on statistical and algorithmic modes of producing numbers. Thanks to its multidisciplin
Trade ReviewThe strong principle for the real world is: never use a model if you don't know its limitations and side effects. In fact, you must know what it can't do for you better than what it can do. I am glad this project is taking place: a long-awaited examination of the role-and obligation-of modeling. * Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering, NYU Tandon School of Engineering. Author of the five-volume Incerto series (The Black Swan) *
The Politics of Modelling: Numbers between Science and Policy is a breath of fresh air and a much-needed cautionary view of the ever-increasing dependence on mathematical modelling in ever-widening directions. The five aspects of modelling that should be 'minded' are a sensitive summary of factors that should be considered when evaluating any mathematical model. * Orrin H. Pilkey, Professor, Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment, Co-author, with Linda Pilkey-Jarvis, of Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future, Columbia University Press, Washington, DC, 2009 *
The methods by which power insinuates itself into models, and facilitates their portability and amendments, are diverse and sometimes insidious. And that's one reason why the range of cases explored in The Politics of Modelling are so illuminating and why we need to pay attention to its authors. [...] Good scholarly books usually do one of two things. They dig into the details of something so that we understand it better, see it in a new light. We often call this depth. Or they bring things together in some creative amalgamation that allows us to make new comparisons, to see patterns we hadn't before seen. This we call breadth. It is rare when a book does both things well. This one does. * Wendy N. Espeland, Professor of Sociology, Northwestern University. *
A modern Rip Van Winkle, awaking from a century of scientific slumbers, would be dismayed to find so much emphasis on models and so little talk of scientific laws and facts. Although Rip's dyspeptic view of models now seems misguided, a call for caution is very much in order. Modelling tools have consequences both for science and for a larger public, taking in historical, sociological, and moral perspectives as well as technical, scientific ones. * Theodore M. Porter, Department of History, UCLA, author of Trust in Numbers, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 1995 *
Table of ContentsForeword: Mathematically modelling as a critical cultural enterprise Wendy Espeland Preface: The sciences of modelling through Dan Sarewitz Part I - Meeting models 1: Introduction Monica Di Fiore and Andrea Saltelli 2: Pay no attention to the model behind the curtain Philip Stark Part II - The rules 3: Mind the framing: Match purpose and context Monica Di Fiore, Marta Kuc-Czarnecka, Samuele Lo Piano, Arnald Puy, and Andrea Saltelli 4: Mind the hubris: Complexity can misfire Arnald Puy and Andrea Saltelli 5: Mind the assumptions: Quantify uncertainty and assess sensitivity Emanuele Borgonovo 6: Mind the consequences: Quantification in economic and public policy Wolfgang Drechsler and Lukas Fuchs 7: Mind the unknowns: Exploring the politics of ignorance in mathematical models Andy Stirling Part III - The rules in practice 8: Sensitivity auditing: A practical checklist for auditing decision-relevant models Samuele Lo Piano, Razi Sheikholeslami, Arnald Puy, and Andrea Saltelli 9: Mathematical modelling: Lessons from composite indicators Marta Kuc-Czarnecka and Andrea Saltelli 10: Mathematical modelling, rulemaking, and the COVID-19 pandemic Ting Xu 11: In the twilight of probability: COVID-19 and the dilemma of the decision-maker Paolo Vineis and Luca Savarino 12: Models as metaphors Jerome R. Ravetz Epilogue: Those special models: A political economy of mathematical modelling Andrea Saltelli and Monica Di Fiore
