Description
Book SynopsisIn their quest for national revival, China’s leaders under Xi Jinping have sought to improve the economy’s performance. The disappointing economic record of authoritarian regimes provides ample grounds for doubt, yet not all have failed. Why have some succeeded where most did not? The theory of the “enabling condition” highlights the central role that politics plays in the pursuit of economic advancement. The theory explains that a political situation characterized by a strong central leadership, weak elite opposition, and a united public offers favorable prospects for enacting concentrated growth policies. This arrangement enables the central leadership to enlist the public in convincing elites to implement policies that they might otherwise resist. Focusing on the experience of single party, authoritarian regimes, The Autocrat’s Predicament: The Political Peril of Economic Upgrade in Single Party, Authoritarian Regimes examines episodes in the histories of the People’s Republic of China, Taiwan, and the Soviet Union. It concludes that China’s unfavorable political situation could be potentially unfriendly for its ambitions to build an efficient, highly productive economy.
Trade Review“China’s economic growth has been outstanding over the past four decades, but continuing that trajectory depends on changing China’s growth model from one of extensive growth to one of intensive growth. Tim Heath argues that this transformation depends more on political considerations than economic policies. In particular, he argues that single party, Leninist-style polities have a difficult time transforming their economic systems because they usually lack what he calls an 'enabling condition' – a combination of a strong central government, a weak opposition, and a cohesive public – but efforts to shore up one of these conditions tends to weaken one or more of the other two conditions. This is a novel and welcome new approach to understanding China’s political economy.”
-- Joseph Fewsmith, Boston University
“This compelling book explains why economic modernization requires at least limited political liberalization. Heath’s argument offers a clear warning to China’s leaders and holds important insights for China watchers abroad.”
-- Bruce Dickson, George Washington University
“Heath’s timely and expansive book puts China’s pursuit of innovation-driven growth in comparative perspective, with an emphasis on politics. The Autocrat’s Predicament shows how difficult it is for authoritarian regimes to orchestrate economic growth and renders Xi Jinping’s particular political strategies legible. Anyone interested in understanding the evolution and future of China’s pursuit of political control and economic growth should read this book.”
-- Meg Rithmire, Harvard Business School
Table of ContentsIntroduction. The Political Challenge of Intensive Growth Policies
Chapter 1. The Theory of the Enabling Condition
Chapter 2. China 1991-1997: Deng Xiaoping’s Triumph and a Toxic Political Legacy
Chapter 3. China 2004-2010: Hu Jintao: Professionalization Fails to Convert Opposing Elites
Chapter 4. China 2013-2020: A Fragmented Public Undermines Xi’s Centralization Strategy
Chapter 5. Taiwan 1973-79: Success Amid a Looming Threat of an Elite-Led Popular Mobilization
Chapter 6. Soviet Union 1985-1990: Weak Central Leadership, Strong Elite Opposition Dooms Perestroika
Chapter 7. Comparative Analysis
Conclusion
