Includes case studies applying technical analysis to current trending and hotly debated stocks like Face
Table of Contents
Preface xvii
Acknowledgments xxi
Chapter 1 Using Moving Averages and Relative Strength Performance to Beat the Index 1
Relative Strength Index, Money Flow Index, Keltner Channels, and Standard Deviation, with Apple Exhibits
Know the Playing Field 1
Apple Computer’s 200-Day Moving Average 3
20-, 50-, and 200-Day Moving Averages 4
Relative Strength versus the S&P 500 Index 6
Keltner Channels 8
Mean Reversion 8
Breakout Signal 9
Apple’s Top at $ 644 9
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 10
Money Flow Index (MFI) 10
Standard Deviation (StdDev) 11
Relative Strength Performance, AAPL: $SPX 11
Supply and Demand 12
Summary 13
Chapter 2 On-Balance Volume, Accumulation/Distribution, Chaikin Money Flow, Pivot Point, Resistance and Support, and Point & Figure Chart, with Apple and Google Exhibits 15
Price and Volume 16
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) 18
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) 18
Value-Added Signals 19
Using Moving Averages 19
Pivot Point, Support and Resistance Points 20
Reverse Head-and-Shoulders Bottom 20
Apple Earnings Report 21
Case Study Questions on Apple 22
Planning for Apple’s Earnings Report 22
You Must Now Make a Decision on Apple before Earnings 25
Answers to the Case Study Questions 25
Summary of the Apple Case Study 30
Google Case Study 30
Summary of the Google Case Study 38
Chapter 3 Bottoms and Tops, Buying and Selling Cycles, and Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO), with IBM and Hewlett-Packard Exhibits 39
Inverted Head-and-Shoulders Bottom 39
Double Top and “V” Bottom 41
Resistance 41
Cycles 42
Writing Puts and Calls 42
The “Cloud Stocks” for the Future 43
Long-Term Investing 43
Buy-and-Hold Strategy Is Problematic 44
Hewlett-Packard Case Study 46
Case Study Answer 47
Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) 49
My Answer to the Case Study 51
Summary 51
Chapter 4 Sell Signals 53
Double Top, Failed Momentum, 10- and 20-Day Trends, Broken Support, Aroon Oscillator, and Directional Movement with ADX, with Herbalife Exhibits
Technical Signals before a Blowup 53
Technical Signals after a Blowup 54
Double-Top Warning 56
The 10- and 20-Day Moving Average Signals 58
Aroon Oscillator and Directional Movement 59
Comments after the Herbalife Blowup 60
Herbalife Case Study Challenge 62
Answers to the Case Study Questions 64
The Daily Chart Looks More Bearish 65
Summary 67
Chapter 5 Supply and Demand, Candlestick Signals, and Point & Figure Chart, with Facebook Exhibits 69
Candlestick Sell Signal for Facebook 69
Failed Facebook versus Lucky LinkedIn 70
Portfolio Managers Prefer Fundamental Analysis 71
The Facebook IPO Game 72
Facebook Selloff 73
Facebook Dives Because of Supply 74
Traders Look for Inefficient Markets 75
Facebook Secrets Took Price Down 76
Facebook: The Rush to Sell on the First Day 77
Facebook Price in Search of a Bottom 78
Why Is Price Going Down? 79
Seeing Demand/Supply on the Chart 80
Waiting for Buy Signals 81
Picture of a “Busted IPO” 82
Point & Figure Chart Shows Continued Selling 83
On-Balance Volume 86
Accumulation/Distribution 86
Summary Picture of Supply and Demand 88
Facebook’s First Earnings Report 88
CMF Signal 89
MFI and MACD Signals 90
Gravestone Doji Candlestick Signal 90
Pivot Point Support/Resistance Levels 91
Day–Trading Signals 91
Tremendous Supply Overhang 93
Summary 93
Chapter 6 Breakout Signals 95
Ascending Triangle, Bullish Rectangle,Double Bottom, and Falling Wedge,with Microsoft, Lululemon, and Home Depot Exhibits
Double Bottom and Bullish Rectangle Breakout 95
What Is Wrong with Microsoft? 96
What Caused Microsoft to Break Out? 98
Falling Wedge Signals Double Bottom 100
Candlestick Hammer a Bullish Reversal Signal 100
Case Study: Home Depot Ascending Triangle 101
Summary 104
Chapter 7 Relative Strength Index, Stochastic, and MACD, with Lululemon Exhibits 105
Case Study: Lululemon before Earnings Are Reported 108
What Are You Ready to Do? 110
Answer to the Case Study 111
Now Are You Ready to Sell Call Options? 112
False Sell Signals in the 200-Day and Relative Strength 117
Summary 120
Chapter 8 Blow-Off Top, Trend Line Reversal, Channel Breakout, and Fan Lines, with Green Mountain Coffee Exhibits 121
Why Study Stocks that Blow Up? 121
How to Make Money When a Stock Crashes 122
Blow-Off Top and Trend Reversal 122
Sell Signals before the Fall 123
Selling Short after Einhorn’s Presentation 126
The Fatal Sell Signals 127
Bottom Fishing Green Mountain a Year Later 128
Looking for Buy Signals 130
Trading the Dead Cat Bounce 132
Summary 134
Chapter 9 Classic Top, Death Cross, Double Bottom, Bull Trap, and Dead Cat Bounce, with Netflix Exhibits 135
Classic Top: End of a Long-Term Uptrend 135
You Must Have a Sell Discipline 136
Death Cross, Dead Cat Bounce to a Bull Trap, Double Bottom 138
Buy Signals to Double Your Money on the Dead Cat Bounce 139
Dead Cat Bounce Up Fails 141
Broken “W” Bottom—Negative Surprise 144
Second Dead Cat Bounce and Second Failure 147
Summary 148
Chapter 10 Gaps, Divergences, Breakdowns and Breakouts, Oscillators, with Research In Motion Exhibits 149
Apple versus Research In Motion, Stock Pairs Hedging 149
The Fall of Research In Motion from $148 to $ 35 151
Negative Divergence 152
Double Bottom, Dead Cat Bounce, Double Top, Capitulation 154
Oversold/Overbought Oscillator 155
Trading the Dead Cat Bounce 155
Research In Motion Breakout Buy Signals 156
Research In Motion’s Double-Top Dive from $88 to $ 6 160
Research In Motion: All Signals Bearish for Three Years 161
Summary 163
Chapter 11 Relative Strength, Elliott Wave, and Fibonacci Levels, with Priceline Exhibits 165
Guidelines for Success 165
Priceline Five-Year Performance versus Apple 166
Case Study Challenge for Priceline 167
Fundamental Models 168
Priceline Short-Term Daily Chart Signals 169
Priceline Long-Term Weekly Chart 171
Answer to the Priceline Case Study 175
My Postmortem Article on MarketWatch.com 176
Proactive before Earnings 178
Elliott Wave Targets a $440 Downside Test 179
Summary 180
Chapter 12 Evolution of Technical Signals from A to Z, with LinkedIn Exhibits 183
LinkedIn IPO Successful 184
LinkedIn Selloff after Doubling the First Day 184
Practice with the LinkedIn Signals 186
Do You Buy LinkedIn on Weakness? 186
LinkedIn Case Study Challenge 189
Wall Street Price Targets for LinkedIn 190
What the Quants Are Saying 191
What the Charts Are Saying About Demand and Supply 193
Your Decision Required before LinkedIn Earnings Are Announced 196
Answers to the LinkedIn Case Study 197
Summary 202
Chapter 13 Using the 200-Day Moving Average and Relative Strength to Rotate In and Out of Winners, with Starbucks Exhibits 203
Portfolio Managers Create Price Trends 205
What Do Portfolio Managers Look At? 206
What Do Traders Look At? 207
Monthly Chart for Portfolio Managers 207
Leading Sell Signals 209
What Will the Weekly Chart Do for the Portfolio Manager? 211
Positive Up Arrows in Exhibit 13.3 213
How Do You Trade Starbucks Short Term? 214
Day Trading Starbucks after Good Earnings 217
Summary 222
Chapter 14 Technical Signals for Your Buy and Sell Discipline, from Stochastics to the 200-Day Moving Average, with Chipotle Mexican Grill Exhibits 223
Price Jumps on the Analyst Upgrade 225
Day Trading the News 226
Trading Systems 227
Trading Information 228
Day-Trading Buy Signals 228
Sell Signals on the Short-Term Daily Chart 230
Buying at the Bottom 230
Change in Character from Bull to Bear 232
Selling at the Top 232
Hammer Candlestick Reversal Signal 235
Counting Down with Fibonacci and Elliott 236
Optimize Entry Level after Fundamental Buy Signal 236
Waiting for the Bottom 238
Summary 239
Chapter 15 Using Money Flow, Trend Lines, RSI, Stochastic, MACD, and Buy/Sell Signals to Rotate In and Out of Losers, with J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs Exhibits 241
J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs versus the Regulators 242
J.P. Morgan Buy/Sell Signals 243
Signals for Stocks in a Trading Range 245
Buying the Bottom for a Trade 247
Trader’s Buy Signals 247
Portfolio Manager’s Buy/Sell Signals 248
Goldman Sachs, Best of Breed 252
Goldman’s Latest Sell Signal 252
Is the Goldman Sachs Bottom at $86 or $43? 255
Summary 257
Chapter 16 Day Trading Using Candlesticks, Real-Time Volume and Price, RSI, MFI, MACD, and 20- to 50-Minute Moving Averages, with Salesforce Exhibits 259
What Is the World of Trading? 259
Trading Technology 261
How Has Technical Analysis Changed? 262
Trading Profitably 263
Case Study in Trading Salesforce.com 264
Answers to Monday’s Day-Trading Example 267
Time for the Second Trade on Monday— What Will You Do? 270
Answer to the Second Trade on Monday 271
Third Trade for Monday 272
Answer to Monday’s Third Trade 272
Tuesday’s Day-Trading Case Question for You to Answer 275
Answer to Tuesday’s Case Study Challenge 275
There Is Much More to Day Trading 279
Summary 279
Chapter 17 Investors Need Reliable Signals 281
50- and 200-Day Moving Averages, Money Flow,Relative Strength, and Directional Movement,with Apple, Home Depot and Wal-Mart Exhibits
Finding Great Stocks Such as Apple 282
Dow 30 Stocks 284
Home Depot—Anatomy of a Buy 286
Technical Analysis with Fundamentals 290
Wal-Mart—Anatomy of a Buy on Weakness 291
Summary 294
Chapter 18 Traders Need Stocks to Trade 295
Using Candlesticks, Volume, 10-Minute Chart,Stochastic, MACD, and RSI, with Gamestop,Green Mountain Coffee, and JCPenney Exhibits
Traders Are Early Birds 296
Traders Are Opportunistic 297
Traders Have a List of Longs and Shorts 298
Gamestop on the Long List but It’s a Trading Short 298
Trading the Positive Surprise in Green Mountain Coffee 303
Why No Short Squeeze in Green Mountain Coffee? 306
Preparing a Trader’s Short List 306
Summary 308
Chapter 19 Winning in the Stock Market Using Technical Analysis, S&P 500 Index, SPY, and Reading the Market, with SPY Exhibits 309
What Is the Current Status of the Market? 310
Elliott Waves 312
Using the Stock Trader’s Almanac 312
Identifying Tops in the Market 313
Is This a Market Top? 314
Percentage Price Oscillator’s Buy/Sell Signals 314
Moving Average Convergence Divergence’s Buy/Sell Signals 316
Know Sure Thing Buy/Sell Signals 317
Keltner Channels Buy/Sell Signals 317
Closer View of the Monthly Chart 318
Switching to the Weekly Chart (Exhibit 19.3) 321
The Daily Chart Everyone Uses First 323
The Day Trader Is Trying to Dodge the Fiscal Cliff News 325
Day-Trading 5-Minute Chart (Exhibit 19.5) 326
Trader’s Buy Signals (Blue Line in Exhibit 19.5) 328
Trader’s Sell Signals (Red Line on Exhibit 19.5) 330
Summary 331
About the Companion Website 333
About the Author 335
Index 337
