Description
Book SynopsisTrade Review"Friedman powerfully brings together three traditions of thought: theory on risk and probability, ethical principles of distributive justice, and political theory on the purpose of social insurance or the welfare state. Her image of civil society as a great mutual insurer with coercive power will reorient political thinking on the welfare state."--James Franklin, author of The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal "Friedman's thoughtful and thought-provoking study reveals how diverse conceptions of probability have always been morally tinged. Whether framed as prudential individualism, frequentist solidarity, or a subjective bet, how we calculate risk turns out to have far-reaching consequences for how we think about what the state owes its citizens and citizens owe each other."--Lorraine Daston, coauthor of How Reason Almost Lost Its Mind: The Strange Career of Cold War Rationality "Probable Justice?advances a strikingly original--and quite brilliant--argument about the common duality of probability as a philosophical concept and social insurance as a political expedient, both of which Friedman reveals are essentially 'Janus-faced.'"--William P. Deringer, author of Calculated Values: Finance, Politics, and the Quantitative Age "Probable Justice is a brilliant synthesis of the history of insurance and theories of probability. It combines social theory (e.g., social insurance and the welfare state) with an outstanding discussion of the ambiguities in probability theory. One of the most illuminating books I have encountered on the influence of probabilistic ideas on theories of justice."--Morton Horwitz, author of The Warren Court and the Pursuit of Justice
Table of ContentsIntroduction
Chapter 1: The Origins of Risk and the Growth of Insurance Insurance: A Brief Primer
The Early History of Modern Insurance
Probability Theory and the Doctrine of Aleatory Contracts
Life Insurance and Probabilistic Justice
Chapter 2: Probabilistic Justice and the Beginnings of Social Insurance Precursors to Social Insurance
The First Social Insurance Plans: Mutual Insurance Writ Large
Chapter 3: The Promise of Probability The Practical Aims of Late-Classical Probability
Between Individual Choice and Social Responsibility
Social Insurance in Theory and in Practice
Chapter 4: The Collectivization of Risk and the Early Welfare States The Rise of the Collective View of Chance
Risk in the Early Welfare States
Chapter 5: The Egalitarian Welfare State and the Ambiguities of Insurance The Egalitarian Welfare State Emerges
Subjective Probability and the Personalization of Chance
The Egalitarian Welfare State without Probability
The Fate of Social Insurance in the Twentieth Century and Beyond
Conclusion
Acknowledgments
Notes
Index
