Description
Book SynopsisUncertainty is an ever-present and ineradicable aspect of politics, affecting all important issues of governance and policy. Rather than treating the uncertainty of politics as a mystery, this book provides an original and direct treatment of political uncertainty as a scientifically knowable phenomenon.
Trade Review"This is a profound book. It seeks to explore the basic configurations of political reality and expose its inherently uncertain foundations. In this, its central mission, it succeeds. It is also an ambitious book in seeking to lay the foundaitons for both micropolitical and macropolitical analysis. ...Cioffi-Revilla has given us a splendid essay on political uncertainty. He has presented a unique way of systematically decomposing political events into their constituent structures and highlighting the nature of their uncertainty in ways that enrich our understanding of politics." Manus I Midlarsky, American Political Science Review
"Claudio Cioffi-Revilla ranks high among political theorists who advise the use of mathematics to make political science more precise and scientific. Politics and Uncertainty couples politics with randomness, from which it follows that mathematical models can make what is improbable predictable." Bertil L. Hanson, Perspectives on Political Science
Table of ContentsPart I. Foundations: 1. Introduction; Part II. Macropolitics: 2. Behavior of political variables; 3. General macropolitical principles; 4. Special macropolitical principles; Part III. Micropolitics: 5. Occurrence of political events; 6. General Micropolitical principles; 7. Special micropolitical principles; Part IV. Conclusions: 8. Synthesis.
