Description
Book SynopsisUnder what conditions should we expect states to do things radically differently all of a sudden? In this book, David Welch seeks to answer this question, constructing a theory of foreign policy change inspired by organization theory, cognitive and motivational psychology, and prospect theory. He then "test drives" the theory in a series of compara
Trade ReviewWinner of the 2008 Best Book Award, International Security Studies Section of the International Studies Association "David Welch is to be commended for developing an ambitious theory that recognizes that humans, not factors, make decisions, and that they are affected by history and psychology."--Max Paul Friedman, Political Science Quarterly "Welch's theory is original and merits further testing against other cases of foreign policy change. Political scientists and foreign policy practitioners alike would benefit from reading this lucidly written book."--Guy Ziv, International Relations and Political Economy "Well written and accessible to non-specialists... Welch's skillful use of historical materials should please historians in particular... Welch has made a substantial contribution to international relations theory with this book."--Barbara Farnham, International History Review
Table of ContentsList of Figures and Tables ix Acknowledgments xi Introduction 1 CHAPTER 1: Surprise, Anticipation, and Theory 10 The Case for a Decision-Based Theory of Behavior 18 The Case for a Theory of Foreign Policy Change 23 CHAPTER 2: A Theory of Foreign Policy Change 30 Building Blocks 31 A Loss-Aversion Theory of Foreign Policy Change 45 Devils in the Details 51 CHAPTER 3: Useless Islands Disputes 72 Las Islas Malvinas 73 The Northern Territories 95 Crucial Differences 113 CHAPTER 4: American Boys in an Asian War 117 Background 118 Turning Points 129 The Johnson Escalation 134 Nixinger and the Endgame 147 How Do the Hypotheses Fare? 160 CHAPTER 5: Free Trade with the United States: Two Funerals and a Wedding 168 Overview and Background 169 Laurier and the Reciprocity Agreement of 1911 177 King and the Reciprocity Nonagreement of 1948 185 Mulroney and the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, 1988 193 Analysis 206 CHAPTER 6: Conclusion 216 Works Cited 233 Index 265
