Description
Book SynopsisThis book offers a complete primer, covering the end-to-end process of forecast production, and bringing together a description of all the relevant aspects together in a single volume; with plenty of explanation of some of the more complex issues and examples of current, state-of-the-art practices.
Trade Review“Overall, this well written, well researched book is a great introduction to operational weather forecasting and the role of the operational meteorologist. It is also offers a good foundation for anyone considering the Royal Meteorological Society’s professional accreditations of Registered Meteorologist or Chartered Meteorologist.” (Weather, 1 February 2015)
“Summing Up: Recommended. Upper-division undergraduates.” (Choice, 1 November 2013)
Table of ContentsSeries Foreword vii
Preface ix
Acknowledgements xiii
1 Introduction 1
1.1 A brief history of operational weather forecasting 2
2 The Nature of theWeather Forecasting Problem 9
2.1 Atmospheric predictability 9
2.2 The importance of observations in weather forecasting 13
2.3 An overview of the operational forecast process 17
Summary 25
3 Meteorological Observations 27
3.1 What do we need from a meteorological observing system? 27
3.2 Data transmission and processing 29
3.3 Observing platforms 31
Summary 51
4 NWP Models – the Basic Principles 53
4.1 The basic ingredients of an NWP model 55
4.2 Building the physical principles into a model 79
4.3 Setting the initial conditions for the forecast 89
Summary 107
5 Designing Operational NWP Systems 109
5.1 Practical considerations for an NWP suite 109
5.2 Ensemble prediction systems 124
5.3 Model output – what can NWP models produce? 130
5.4 Using NWP output to drive other forecast models 144
Summary 148
6 The Role of the Human Forecaster 149
6.1 The role of the senior forecasting team 150
6.2 Production of forecasts for customers 163
Summary 175
7 Forecasting at Longer Time Ranges 177
7.1 Where does the predictability come from in longer range forecasts? 178
7.2 Observations of ocean and land surface variables 185
7.3 Monthly to seasonal forecasting systems 187
7.4 Presentation of longer range forecasts 200
Summary 204
8 Forecast Verification 205
8.1 Deterministic forecast verification 208
8.2 Verification of probability forecasts 216
8.3 Subjective verification 219
Summary 222
References 223
Index 227
