Description
Book SynopsisThis book outlines methodologies to estimate the economic impacts of natural disasters based on business surveys conducted after large disasters in Japan. By including numerous observations on business activities in past disasters and the validations of both engineering and economic models based on these data sets, this book appeals to practitioners who estimate the regional economic impacts as well as to students and young professionals in various fields who conduct disaster impact studies. The book consists of 7 chapters and includes theories and practices, which help readers to interlink the estimation methods with real-world problems. The study primarily focuses on cases in Japan, but the methods employed can be generalized and applied in other countries.
Table of ContentsChapter 1
Introduction
1.1 History
1.2 Why do we need to quantify flow losses?
1.3 Approaches adopted in this booklet
Chapter 2
Functional fragility curves for production capacity
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Model and estimation procedures
2.2.1 Formulation of FFCs
2.2.2 Setting of damage states
2.2.3 Formulation of likelihood function: multinominal response model
2.2.4 Confidence interval for FFC
2.3. Model estimation
2.3.1 Data
2.3.2 Estimation results
2.3.3 Estimation results for different industrial sectors
2.3.4 Confidence interval of FFCs
2.3.5 Expected capacity level
2.4 Summary
Chapter 3
Measures for Estimating Production Capacity Losses
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Lifeline resilience factor
3.3 Method to estimate production shocks
3.2.1 Earthquake disaster case
3.2.2 Flood disaster case
3.4 Application to earthquake and flood disasters
3.4.1 The Great East Japan Earthquake
3.4.2 Flood disaster case
3.4 Summary
3.5 References
Chapter 4
SCGE models to Assess Higher-order Impacts of Production Capacity Losses
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Literature Review
4.3 Basic Model and Key Parameters
4.4 Earthquake disasters
4.4.1 Data
4.4.2 How to reflect the PCLR into an SCGE model
4.4.3 Estimation Results
4.5 Flood disasters
4.6.Summary
Chapter 5
Economic Impacts of a Nankai Megathrust Earthquake Scenario
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Hazard Information
5.3 Estimated Economic Impacts of a Nankai Trough Earthquake Scenario
5.4 Summary
Chapter 6
Economic Impacts of the Transportation Network Disruption: An Extension of the SCGE Model
6.1 Introduction
6.2 The framework for economic loss estimation due to transportation network damages
6.3 The SCGE model to assess the interregional spillovers of direct damage through transportation networks
6.4 The Niigata-Chuetsu Earthquake—A Case Study
6.4.1 An overview of the disaster and model parameter settings
6.5 Conclusions
Chapter 7
Conclusions
