Description
Book SynopsisGiven the appalling consequences of civil wars, why are the competing actors within a state unable to come to a settlement to avoid the costs of conflict? How might external parties affect the likelihood that a civil war begins? How do their actions affect the duration and outcome of civil conflicts that are already underway? How International Relations Affect Civil Conflict draws on three main approachesbargaining theory, signaling theory, and rational expectationsto examine how external actors might affect the onset, duration and outcome of civil wars. Signals from external actors are important because they represent a potential increase (or decrease) in fighting capabilities for the government or the opposition if a war were to begin. Costly signals should not affect the probability of civil war onset because they are readily observable ex ante, which allows the government and opposition to peacefully adjust their bargaining positions based on changes in relative capabilities. In
Trade ReviewDo domestic and international political conflict intersect? Of course they do, but how that intersection occurs is not yet well understood. Thyne's book, How International Relations Affect Civil Conflict, establishes an important relationship: the onset, duration, and outcomes of civil wars are strongly influenced by states' and rebels' expectations about the likely intervention of other countries. Relying on evidence that ranges from historical accounts of specific cases to the average effects gleaned from sophisticated large-N analyses, Thyne finds considerable empirical support for his hypotheses. This work considerably advances out understanding of civil wars, and it also serves as an excellent example of the leverage gained from a combination of careful theoretical and empirical work. -- Will H. Moore, Florida State University
Thyne’s book is an insightful application of bargaining theory that illuminates how external actors can affect the risk of civil conflict. Thyne argues that costly signals by other states towards a country at risk of civil war—contrary to common belief—are likely to be less relevant than weak signals. Whereas costly signals are unlikely to provide any new information that may alter existing demands and expectations in the interaction between antagonists, cheap signals can have an important influence on political stability and the risk of civil war. This book deserves to be read by anyone interested in how international factors may affect civil war onset and duration. -- University of Essex, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, University of Essex
Table of ContentsChapter 1. Introduction Chapter 2. The Argument: How Interstate Signals Affect Civil Conflicts Chapter 3. Interstate Signals and Civil War Onset Chapter 4. A Puzzling Rebellion: Interstate Signals and Civil War Onset in Nicaragua Chapter 5. Interstate Signals and Civil War Duration Chapter 6. Interstate Signals and Civil War Outcome Chapter 7. The Consequences of Contradiction: Civil War Duration and Outcome in Iraq Chapter 8. Lessons Learned and Implications for US Foreign Policy Chapter 9. Summary and Directions for Future Research
